Rebound trade Friday with beans recovering all Thursday break, 1150 1/2, plus 16 1/4. Kind of interesting that there is no real carry or discount in meal spreads from May to October. Funds also sold a bunch more oil and to a lesser extend beans on this week's commitments, so they are getting far over their skis. Wheat up 13 1/2 to 550 1/2 as we seem to be pretty cheap in the big picture and Russia probably is done selling inventory at stupid low prices. Corn follows for a 6 3/4 cent gain, 433 1/2 and SA production is getting smaller, not bigger as well as a boost in EPA E15 fuel allowances. 50 cent range in rice but a dull settle to rice Friday, 19 bucks, off 1 1/2. May open interest winding down. Dow closes up 201 points, 38,208 after a beating down to 37,463. Worried weekend ahead on the Israel front. Bonds up 16 tics, 114.20.
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Nothing really exciting in Export sales to give any fire to the grains Thursday morning and corn sellers pushed us below 430 and down to 426 3/4, off 3 1/2 and getting the front month spread to squeeze on perceived lack of deliveries. No bounce in wheat by the close, 536 3/4, off 1/4, but no desire to push further either. 1134 1/4 beans are off 15 1/2 and overdone to me. Rice buyer here again and 18 1/2 better day, 1901 1/2. Worried that July futures are going to drag us past May cash capacity up here, but fading funds in thin markets can be a painful endeavor. Dow looked better but faded to 38,007, plus 17 points as bonds dropped 23 tics of Wednesday pop, 114.04.
Wednesday wheat trade interestingly weak, 537, off 12 3/4. Nothing global to spur the softness and wondering if the big fund shorts are just probing to see how far they can push. Should see on Thursday. Corn only of 3/4 cent, 430 1/4 and beans bounce 4 1/2 to 1149 1/2. Rice might just have the long funds coming back for another bite at the long side, 1883, plus 46 1/2. Not a safe time to be working rice from the short side. Dow just churning, 37,990, off 56 points and bonds recover 28 tics of a long winded and grinding break, 114.27.
Financial room pretty unstable Monday with the Dow out of the box strong but faded thru the day to 37,993, off 245 points. Bonds threw away the Friday rally and lost a point and 30 tics, 114.09. Wheat struggling at 551 3/4, off 4 1/4 and corn slips 4 as well, 431 1/2. Both products soft in the soy complex and beans drop 15 3/4 to 1158 1/2. Will be interesting if we test a psychological 1150 to see what action it draws. Rice trades limit up a buck 10 better and will have expanded limits on Tuesday.
Friday trade pretty much was a sell the rumor buy the fact with a bit of a delay. Thursday the funds tried to work grains lower in waves and really didn't succeed nearly as well as it felt. Meal was a surprise to the bid side and beans went along for the ride, 1174, plus 14 3/4. Solid corn recovery from Thursday as well with a 6 3/4 cent bounce, 435 1/2. Open interest dropped 20K as some of the short-managed money probably decided they have been at the bear dance long enough. Wheat up 4 1/4 in sympathy, not sure whether that's with corn or KC but still a bump up to 556. Rice break didn't last long as the bulls showed up Friday and the bear withered away, 1723, up 36 cents. Dow took it on the chin, off 494 points, 38,238 undoubtably concerned about geopolitical risks over the weekend and bonds up 31 tics, 116.07 on a small flight to safety.
Build up for export sales and WASDE Thursday fizzled with nothing really exciting in exports and a slightly bearish bean stocks number. Beans lost 5 1/2 following weak bean oil lower, 1159 1/4. Corn off 5 1/2 as well, 428 3/4. Wheat testing some lower areas of support, 551 3/3, down 6 3/4, and the rice bear pushed us 28 lower, 1687. I don't know about you, but that day of trade felt much worse than the end numbers imply. Thats maybe a good sign moving forward. Dow needed a 250-point bounce to not look terrible, 38,732, off 25 and bonds slipped another 10 tics, 115,08.
Wednesday trade in front of WASDE tomorrow and export sales is just looking for direction. Corn got 3 cents back from the Tuesday break, 434 1/4. Wheat was a dime better early but faded to 3/4 better by the end, 558 1/2. Meal off 4 1/2 bucks and soy drops 9 3/4 to 1164 3/4. I believe beans have priced in a bit of a bearish report recently so we might be setting up a sell the rumor and buy the fact trade Thursday at 11. Rice up another 53 1/2 to 1715 and over a dollar rally in the last 2 days. New short sellers got their hand whacked too long in the cookie jar. Not a fan of the open interest drop in May and lack of spread roll. Financials hits bonds down 2 points and 13 tics while the Dow drops 439 points, 38,757. Higher for longer inflation is the story but I'm starting to wonder if globally we are losing the capacity to put the genie back in the bottle.
Tuesday the start of settling up positions in front of Thursday WASDE report with wheat off 8 to 557 3/4 and corn slipping 4 1/4 to 431 1/4. Beans off 7 cents, 1174 1/2. Rice shorts caught and we pop 50 cents, 1661 1/2. I can't stress how thin rice is now and moves will be more violent. Dow cracked down to the recent lows, 38,873 before bouncing all the way back to 39,196, losing only 23 points at the end of the day but establishing a downside hole that is gaping. Bonds up 27 tics, 117.31.
Monday brought a really cool solar eclipse and not much else. Corn gained 1 1/4 to 435 1/2 as the highlight of the day. Wheat slipped 1 1/2 to 565 3/4 and beans followed soy oil lower for a 3 1/2 cent loss, 1181 1/2. Nothing day in the financials with the Dow off 4 points, 39,219 and bonds off 13 tics, 117.04. Bonds did seem to reject the lows and time will tell if we have finally run the course for this break.
Beans gain a nickel Friday on the back of bean oil bids, 1186. Wheat up 11 to 567 1/4. Russia seems to have found a floor or has already oversold a bit. Corn slips a penny in dull trade, 434 1/4. Funds big ag short is still with us but the clock is working against them. Planting needs to progress in a very timely manner with some good weather to boot. Managed money should use this next week or two to make a new push down if they can, or I believe the clock will run out on them. 1616 rice was off 4 cents as most all the big fund long has liquidated, and shorts have entered the fray. Commercial has cleaned up their short position nicely and was a net 1650 contract buyer last week. Thats a pretty impressive turn. Higher for longer interest rates have the Dow 307 points higher on a solid bounce off Thursday break while bonds lose 28 tics, 117.17. I have abandoned trying to catch the bond knife until the Fed comes up with better guidance. Nothing stopping us from checking the old lows even though it doesn't make sense to me today.
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