Friday came out of the box bid, and anyone who sold late Thursday never stood a chance. These systems don't want this game over yet, they make their money on the churn. Meal and oil bid but not silly, beans were just overdone Thursday and we rallied 66 1/4 to 1396. Talk of more China buying in the break for new crop. Rice bear finally got caught and the bull painted the close up on him as well. I would expect the bear to make one last bet to the down side, but he is going to need something from the outside to keep him from writing a check. 1261, plus 38. Corn up 22 1/4 to 655 1/4 and new crop was 33 higher. Wheat gained 23 3/4 to 662 3/4 on a solid wheat day and some bullish spring wheat talk out there on acres. Dow off over 1000 on the week and 538 on the day, 33,155. Bonds gain another point and 7 tics, 160.30. Sunday night should confirm or deny this financial move, and I would not fade Sundays action thru next week.
Exports came out Thursday morning, nothing impressive, but no one noticed anyway. The administration is supposedly going to give relief to anyone who has bio-fuels commitments and that's that. I don't want to editorialize, but what good is a mandate if you drop it as soon as it becomes uncomfortable? The purpose seems to be to me that cost will make people and producers adjust to fulfill the mandate. If I can cry and the mandate goes away, why adjust? With that said, corn limit down 40 cents, 633. Same in new crop. Wheat off 23 3/4 to 639. Rice off only 12 to 1223. Bean oil limit down early and beans lose 118 3/4 to 1329 3/4. Dow off 212 points, 33,693, and bonds gain a point and 29 tics, 159.23. Bloody day all around.
Wednesday trade had some stability in the corn as we moved in a quarter range but closed up 5 1/2 cents, 673. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 662 3/4 and there are some concerns about the early maturity of spring wheat and the risks of poorer yields. Rice up a nickel, 1236, but that's 30 off the highs. I don't have any news on that run up. Bean oil limit down and beans off 17 1/4 cents, 1448 1/2. Oil lead beans up and for now it is dragging them down. Meal does seem to be finding a base. Dow off 272 to 33,905 and bonds leak 23 tics, 157.26.
Tuesday opened soft again , but at least we saw a bounce. July Corn closed up 8 1/4 cents, 667 1/2, 20 off the lows and separating itself from new crop. That was in the face of wheat off 13 even with its bounce, 661 1/2. Rice bear at it again, 1231, minus 19 1/2 and getting us into an area that should open us up to new export sales. Beans were lower and higher but ultimately closed 1465 3/4, off 6 1/2. Spread firmed. Dow in another 300 point churn day, 34,177, off 98, while bonds slip 2 tics, 158.17.
Monday trade had an expected soft open and never really could get a bounce going. The talk of relaxed bio fuel requirements is a nail in the coffin for now I'm afraid. Corn off 25 1/4 to 659 1/4. Wheat held up better, 674 1/4 after a solid bounce to be only 6 1/4 lower. Rice got whacked for 34 1/2 to 1250 1/2 as the funds appear to be willing to get short if my read is correct. Beans off 36 1/4 with wholesale July liquidation, 1472 1/4. All for all, an ugly day in the grain room. And the floor might be a fair amount lower than most think. Be careful trying to catch this knife. On to financials, in Sept from now forward, with Sept Dow off 82 points, 34,275, and bonds off 20 tics, 158.19. Effectively just noise.
Friday trade a dog in the grain room, with corn off 14 1/2 to 684 1/2. Corn had a range as high as 703 down to 673. Oats off 7 and seem to be rejecting $4. Wheat off 3 to 680 3/4, but better Russian wheat forecast. That can be a longer term drag. Rice off 8 to 1285 but Sept is now top step and the spread went bid. Beans got ugly, 1508 1/2, down 35 1/2 with oil falling hard and meal stable, but this has been an oil lead rally and an oil lead break. Dow up a single point, 34,462 after a 300 point churn. Bonds off 3 tics, 159.07.
Thursday morning exports didn't give us anything to get excited about, but WASDE at 11 spurred some action. Old crop corn caught a bid with reduced stocks, abet expected, and we closed 8 1/4 higher, 699. That was 18 off the high and 11 off the low, so we had some chop. Nothing report in wheat, 683 3/4, plus 1 1/2. Rice report was bullish as we lost stocks in long grain, but the bear sell off is still in play, 1293, off 18 1/2. We have plenty of stocks to get to new crop and the commercial is pressuring the players who held too long, knowing that you have to clean out the bin. That said, I suspect we might be singing a different tune on June 30 if the new crop acreage drop gets printed. 15 million Bu of beans found in this report, and meal has been screaming they were out there, 1544, off 18 1/2. Meal a dog as well and the products spreads got hit hard on the waning days of the fund spread roll. At least that spread pressure should end with Fridays close. Dow up 24 to settle 34,461, but they punched the hole to the upside to make for a smoother path for Fridays print. Sept bonds up another 17 tics, 159.10.
Wednesday trade had corn recover 10 3/4 cents to 690 3/4, with pretty much all the gain in July, as the July Dec spread roll was good for a dime gain on the day. Wheat slipped 2 3/4 to 682 1/4. No strength in the products and beans dipped 17 1/2 to 1562 1/2. With a weeks worth of noise, we are right back to last Tuesdays close. July open interest dropped 10% on the day. That's how big the fund roll is. And July gained on new crop throughout most of the day. Rice off another 5 1/2 to 1308 1/2. I think as the bins get cleaned out the hedges get lifted and that's one more contract the commercial doesn't need in futures. Rice needs some Latin American business. Dow off 149 in a nothing trade, 34,437, and Sept bonds gain another 25 tics to 158.25. I am surprised at the bond market strength.
Tuesday trade in corn and wheat tried, but faded thru the day, with wheat only up a nickel, 685, and front corn up 3/4 cent, 680. That's off from a 698 high. Spread roll is in full force again as Dec stayed 7 higher. Rice off 13 to 1314 with more spread roll and flat price liquidation as July takes pressure from a quiet cash market. Beans held up by a decent meal and oil market, 1580, plus 19 3/4, but off form 1597 high. Dow in a tight churn, 34,586, and Sept bonds up 25 tics, 158 even.
Rocking higher Sunday night met by some rain in the forecast and what some are saying is a reversal in the grain room. Corn closes 27 off the night time highs, 679 1/4, minus 3 1/2. Dec corn was 11 higher as the spread roll is silly this cycle. Wheat down 7 3/4 to 680. Rice in another dead day, 1327, off 4. Beans set new highs in new crop overnight and rocked in July too, but fell 63 cents from the highs to 1560 1/4, down 23 1/2. Bean, meal;, and oil spreads pummeled into the close. Thing is, I still think this is just churn trading. Buy low, sell high, rinse and repeat. July will be cleaned up by the end of the week for the loose money boys, so the texture of July should change next week. Dow off 126 points, 34,616 in a soft breather trade. Bonds, switching to Sept where the volume is, 157.07, off 8 tics.