Interesting trade Friday with Iran feeling a little love tap from Israel against their nuke facilities and EPA bringing out favorable biofuel rules for bean oil. Dow off 783 points, 42,207 and bonds drop a point and 2 tics, 113.08. Neither of these moves get out of any ranges. Bean oil limit up Friday and beans gain 27 1/2 cents, 1069 3/4. Corn picks up 6 to 444 1/2 and wheat couldn't find any more sellers so had to look to the upside, 543 3/4, plus 17 1/4. Rice short continues the roll and cover routine, 1377, plus 3 1/2. Going to be a busy Monday.
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Nothing moving in exports and WASDE was mostly a non-event Thursday. Slightly friendly corn and wheat numbers and he finally started to get rice back to reality. Corn gained 1 1/2 cents, 438 1/2. Wheat off 7 3/4 to 526 1/2 and it just shows wheat is a tough long. 1042 1/4 beans down 8 1/4 cents. Rice short cover continues, 1373 1/2, up 6 1/2. Dow spent time lower but really still a churn trade with a 82 point better close, 42,990. Bonds continue recovery with a point and a tic gain, 114.10.
Humpday trade just clean up in front of WASDE on Thursday at 11. Corn was higher but leaked to 437, off 1 3/4. Wheat stalled, 534 1/4, minus 1/4 and beans slipped 7 1/4 to 1050 1/2. Pretty good amount of rice roll to go with continued short cover liquidation, 1367, off 4 1/2. Dow in another churn trade, 42,908, down 3 points while bonds continue the slow recovery from the bottom of a trading range, 113.09, plus 23 tics.
Bit of Monday/Tuesday trade in corn with a decent recovery bid and 5 1/4 cent better close, 438 3/4. Rice picked up 9 1/2 to 1371 1/2 as the big short had to move the market up to the next level of sellers north of 70 to get his needed daily volume, 1371 1/2 close, plus 9 1/2. Beans up 1 3/4 to 1057 3/4. Wheat sellers kept that grain on the defensive, 534 1/2, off another 7 1/2, but just looking at the lower part of the recent range. Dow is in a coiling churn trade, 42,911, up 115 points and bonds pick up 7 tics, 112.18.
Ugly Monday in the grain room with wheat leading the way down, 542, minus 12 3/4. I guess the systems wanted to sucker in new longs and with the 550 area, got enough on the line. Corn off 9 in tow, 433 1/2. Better weather forecasts and a bit of assumed current surplus globally weighing on the markets. Funds now short over 150K of corn and will attempt to keep a lid on it thru the summer, just like last year. They need a bearish corn report on the 12th. Beans held up better, 1056, off 1 1/4 and rice slipped 3 to 1362. Dow had another churn day, 42,796, off 13 tics and bonds recover 7 tics, 112.11.
Loose money day Friday with the Dow up 440 points, 42,809 and bonds off a point and 10 tics, 112.04. Wheat retook 550 with a 9 1/4 cent higher finish, 554 3/4. Beans up 5 1/2 to 1057 1/4 and corn picked up 3 as well, 442 1/2. Rice hitting some selling resistance here against the short rolling part of his position and just buying back the rest, 1365, plus 3 1/2. Funds now short over 150K of corn in a remake of last year but without the trapped farmer and still short nearly 5000 rice. They have very small longs in soy and bean oil and still a big meal short. Money boys definitely not prepared for any weather this year. Seems like already in places way too wet and in others too dry. These are not baseline yield conditions. California just might get E15 over the hump and hopefully we get favorable bio-oil rules soon. Best cure for low prices is domestic demand.
Nothing exceptional either way in Thursday morning exports. Wheat held the Wed. rally and added 2 1/4 more, 545 1/2. Beans up 6 3/4 to 1051 3/4. Corn positive as well, 439 1/2, up 3/4. Rice stayed in rally mode too, 1361 1/2, up a dozen as the big short is still mostly patiently buying his way out rather than a big roll so far. Dow just a churn but off 131 points, 42,369 and bonds off 3 tics, 113.14.
Interesting hump day trade with solid markets out of the box, but unfortunately corn faded back to 438 3/4 by the close, plus 1/4. Beans close middle of the range, 1045, plus 4 1/4 and wheat got a better footing, 543 1/4, up 7 1/4. Rice bear got smacked in the face with a powerful 32 cent rally, 1349 1/2 and back against some resistance. Story in financials was bonds to me, up a point and 14 tics, 113.17. Dow just a churn trade, 42,500, off 98 points.
Tuesday trade had corn stabilized with a 438 1/2 cent close, plus 1/4 but no desire to look lower. That to me is the story of grain trade in total for Tuesday. Beans rejected Mondays push below 1040 and we bounced 7 1/4 better to get back above with a 1040 3/4 close. Wheat did give up 3 cents, 536, but it held the 525-530 support, and its wheat. Rice off 20 to 1317 1/2 as the recent buyer took a break, but no real sell volume. Dow up 224 points, 42,598 and sept bonds gain 5 tics,112.03.
Shaky Monday trade with uncertainties surrounding trade with China and ongoing meetings. China agrees to nothing quickly unless it's in their favor. Corn off 5 3/4 to 438 1/4, piercing 440 support, so we need to see if there is any desire to push from here. It's pretty early in the season to get bearish here. Beans off 8 1/4 to 1033 1/2 and rice drops a dozen cents, 1337 1/2. Still some old crop rice that normally would have been in coop hands that is sitting on farms that needs a home. Dow looked lower again and recovered again, 42,374, plus 80 points and bonds slipped 26 tics, 112.12.
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