Monday trade influenced by pending Dec first notice day with corn off another 7 3/4 to 455 1/2 and wheat dropping 14 1/2 cents, 534 1/4. Beans didn't really recover from the Friday hit, 1329 3/4, off a penny. Rice gives up Friday bull push with a 32 1/2 cent break, 1724. Dow slipped 57 points, 35,373 and bonds gained back a point and 6 tics, 116.01.
When the cats away, the computers will play. Thin markets are easy to push and push they did to end the week. A big move on Friday is an unchanged open on Monday. Beans hit for another 25 3/4 cents, 1330 3/4. Corn off 5 1/2 to 463 1/4. Wheat down 7 cents as well, 548 3/4. Cattle and feeders slaughtered. Rice the sole winner as that computer ran us up 26 1/2 cents, 1756 1/2. Dow took an easy 112 point up day, 35,430 while bonds leaked a point and a tic, 114.27.
Pre-thanksgiving trade Wednesday leaky in the grain room with soy giving up 20 3/4 cents, 1356 1/2. Rice off 20 as well, 1730. Rice had another 380 of open interest gain so someone has a big bet they are placing. Time will tell. Corn off 1 1/4 in a dull day, 468 3/4 and wheat gains 3/4 to 555 3/4 on news China is in. Dow took the path of least resistance, up 170 points, 35,318 while bonds are stuck for a week now with a 115 handle, 115.28, plus 8 tics. There has been a lot of volume swapped with the 115 handle so a breakout that sticks needs to be respected. Have a happy and blessed thanksgiving.
Tuesday trade in holiday mode with beans gaining a dime, 1377 1/4 and wheat up 11 1/2 to 555. Corn stuck at 470, plus 1/2. Rice funds still pushing 1750, plus 10 1/2 cents. It will be interesting to see just how much rice is for sale at $8. Rice market is almost totally in the funds hands now. Dow off 77 points in a nothing trade, 35,148 and bonds slip 6 tics, 115.20.
Another weekend without major escalations and a shortened holiday week in front of us gave the financial room some space to run with the Dow 213 better, 35,225 and bonds up 13 tics, 115.26. Weaker open in grains didn't stick and soy complex lit it up for a 40 cent bump from the lows, 1367 1/4, plus 27 on the day with a comparable play in meal as well. Corn managed a 2 1/2 cent up tic to 469 1/2. Wheat is a dead man walking, 543 1/2, off 7 1/4. Funds net bought 365 rice on the day with no real benefit, 1739 1/2, off a penny.
Friday trade in the financials out of steam and pretty much flat settles as we just try to hold the rally to digest for the weekend. The thing to learn about this for grains is just to understand how these systems we are competing with work. Meal might have finally rolled over and soy dropped 20 cents, 1340 1/2. Corn off 7 3/4 to 467 and wheat slips 2 3/4 to 550 3/4. Our rice bull system is still at it adding 326 open interest and 15 1/2 cents, 1740 1/2. Commitments had a big shift with commercials ringing the register and funds deeper in the hole. Now we just watch how hard they want to push and watch for cracks.
Exports Thursday morning outstanding in beans and rice, solid corn as well but the China Xi meeting is baked into the cake and Brazil weather looks to have turned the corner for the better. Beans sink 24 3/4 to 1360 1/4. Wheat off 7 to 553 1/2. Corn sank to 465 but recovered to 474 3/4, plus 4. Rice bull still in charge and exports finally confirm the sales rumors, 1725, up 31 more cents and a very impressive futures rally. Dow acting toppy and just wanting to hold recent strength, 35,019, off 31 points while bonds gain back a point and 2 tics, 115.10.
Dow holds Tuesday gains and adds another 163 points Wednesday, 35,050. Bonds give back 1/2 the pop, 114.08, off a point and 6 tics. Beans traded near $14 but faded to 1385, off 4 3/4. Corn down 7 1/2 to 470 3/4 and wheat drops 11 1/2 to 560 1/2. Not the kind of action you want to see on the heels of the Xi visit and really what fanfare is left in that tank? Rice bull still at it, 1694, up 16 1/2 and attracting pricing, but remember we are in silly season.
Tuesday feature was lower inflation news and talk that the FED is done hiking. Dow went on a joyride for 502 points, 34,887. Have to say I thought the equities looked tired on Monday trade and I missed that one by a mile. Bonds pop 2 points and 5 tics, 115.14, but funny that the move is just back near top of recent range and not a blow thru. Spread really doesn't reflect an eminent Fed rate drop either, so the big money bond boys aren't nearly as convinced as the general public. Beans up 7 1/4 to 1389 3/4 with a bean oil bid in tow. Corn struggled to gain a penny, 478 1/4 and wheat dropped 7 to 572. Nov rice went off with no fanfare and Jan was up 3 at the close, 1677 1/2. We really need the river to rise.
Xi is coming to town, bean sales to China announced on cue and soy up 35 cents Monday, 1382 1/4. Meal up nearly 20 bucks after trading up limit in a long fund squeeze. Mexico bought some more corn for a 13 1/4 cent gain, 477 1/4. Wheat only dragged up 3 3/4 to 579. Rice took the day off, 1674 1/2. plus 1/2. Dull financials Monday as well, 113.09 bonds, off 3 tics while the Dow gained 47 points, 34,385.