Great export sales Thursday wasn't enough to keep the grain bull fed. Harvest pressure got the best of the funds for the day, with corn off a nickel, 363 1/2, and beans closing $10 even, minus 14 1/2. Wheat managed a 3/4 gain to 549 3/4 and rice up 7 cents, 1256. Dow churned for 500 points but closed only 30 higher, 26,715, while bonds added 16 tics, 176.31.
Dow dropping as the bulls have run out of suckers to bait in and so we flush them out. 26,685, minus 458. No flight to quality as bonds slip 7 tics, 176.15. Muted trade in grains Wednesday with Dow so weak and funds so long the soy complex, awaiting a big export sales number Thursday to add fuel. Bulls need fed all the time. Corn off 3/4 to 368 1/2 as the least weak grain. Beans off 5 1/4 in the face of a very strong meal market, 1014 1/2. Wheat drops 9 cents, 549, and rice is down 3 to 1249.
Markets stalled for the most part Tuesday trying to reassess after our strong rally gets followed by the first bigger weekend of harvest pressure Monday. Corn off 1/2 to 369 1/2. Beans slip 2 3/4 cents, 1019 3/4. Some are thinking $10 would hold any break for now. I want to see the action before I'd make that call. Wheat has a small bounce,558, plus 3 1/4, and rice recovers all of Mondays losses to close 1252, up 30. Dow cant press thru Monday lows and we get a soft bounce close, 27,143, plus 88. Bonds sleep thru the day, 176.22, plus 5.
First solid weekend of harvest brought expected selling Monday as corn took a 8 3/4 hit to 369 3/4. Beans dropped 21 cents, 1022 1/2, and wheat fell 20 1/4 to 554 3/4. Rice dropped to the iceberg buyer at 1212 which has been in play since early last week, closing 1222, off 29 1/2. Dow had over 1000 point range and had a solid late rebound/dress up to close 27,055, still off 547. Bonds only up 17 tics so no real flight to quality, 176.17.
Friday close dressed up by the funds as expected, with beans leading the way, 1043 1/2, plus 15. Meal up 7. Corn gains 3 1/4 to 378 1/2, bumping up against 380 with some difficulty. 575 wheat is 18 3/4 higher and getting into some thin air to me. Rice gets 26 1/2 to the upside as well, 1251 1/2 as the cash boys are not getting 550 and cheaper a Bu bought as easily as expected. Looks like the commercials are getting a lesson in selling what they don't own in all the grains this harvest. Commercial has a way of coming out OK in these things though. Dow faltered on the late day dress-up as we closed down 217 in a 500 point range, 27,602. Bonds off 15 tics, 176 even.
Great export sales in corn and beans set the table for the funds to continue their buying ways Thursday. Corn up another 3 1/2 to 375 1/4 and eyeing the $4 call block. Beans rip another 17 1/4 gain on the day, 1028 1/2. Meal pops $9. Wheat follows along to 556 1/4, plus 14 1/4. Rice back above 550 a Bu, 1225, up 9. Dow looked like it could get ugly for a bit, but held up reasonably well for the action, 27,819, minus 118. Bonds added 8 tics, 176.15. Every dry day that goes by allows another combine to work its way north. Funds are now long over 1/4 of the US bean production.
Funds came to the dance Wednesday morning with guns blazing. Beans solid all day and close up 19 3/4 cents, 1011 1/4. Corn follows suit for 5 3/4 cents, 371 3/4. Even wheat managed a 3 3/4 gain, 542. Rice was dead and closed up a penny, 1216. Dow put on another 400 point churn day and closed only 29 higher, 27,937. Bonds off 9 tics, 176.07.
Nothing really exciting in Tuesday news to feed the bull, so corn slips 3 1/2 to 366 and beans wind up 8 lower, 991 1/2. Wheat falls 7 1/2 to 538 1/4 and the European market seems like this price is high enough. Rice does close 8 higher on a firm cash market as the millers try to cover unannounced sales, 1215. Dow churns yet again but closes only 37 higher, 27,908, and bond slip 6 tics in another snoozer day, 176.16.
Monday trade had the Dow placing confidence across the floor, switching to Dec futures moving forward, 27,871, plus 378. Bonds a non event up 3 tics, 176.22. Corn followed thru for a penny gain to 369 1/2, while beans added 3 1/2 to 999 1/2 after the look above $10 didn't really bring much volume. Bull is full and looking for Chinese help. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 545 3/4 but tired to me, and rice off 4 cents, 1207.
Strong Export sales opened Friday with a solid floor in corn and beans, the WASDE report really gave the bulls nothing to build on, but they bought anyway. Market disagrees with the governments expectations for yields and exports, and showed it in a big way as the funds painted the weekly close. Corn up 3 1/2 to 368 1/2. Meal rocks for $7 and beans up 18 1/2 to 996, pushing against $10. Nothing in the WASDE or global numbers justify buying from this point in price and time. Commitments of traders has the funds long 174K of beans before the report buying, long a slug of oil and 32K of meal, and 34K of corn as well. Those protein bulls have gotten so large they will need fed every day this week. Wheat weaker by 6 1/4 cents, 542, and rice bearish report helps push long grain down 36 1/2 to 1211 1/2. Cash is currently bid stronger than futures, so it will be interesting to see if the rice bull appears to defend Monday. Dow churned near 400 points on Friday but closed a relatively calm 67 higher, 27,612. Bonds up 11 tics, 176.19.