WASDE Wednesday trade lead by beans up 27 3/4 to 1642 1/2 New highs 25 cents higher traded at the report. Meal didn't help and oil just contributed a little, this was a bean run. July bean open interest gained 8k on the day, which catches my eye. Oats off nearly 19 and briefly limit down with a bullish condition report. Bears watching a little closer today for follow-thru or rejection. Wheat down a dozen, 729 3/4. Corn off 7 1/2 cents, 714 3/4. Rice pretty quiet and off 3 cents, 1404. I was happy to see that even with acres too high in rice on this report, they left domestic and residual high as well, rather than print a totally fictitious number that we would have to reconcile in July. WASDE didn't feed any friendly grain surprises, and was a little bearish new crop carryover to me with an expected acres increase coming in June. Dow off 675 more, 33,508, and bonds off a point and 11 tics, 155.19. I'm starting to wonder if last weeks 158 is going to become a rear view mirror number we yearn for.
Heck of a Monday/Tuesday trade, as corn recovers 10 1/2 cents, 722 1/4 and wheat gains 11 1/4 to 741 3/4. Beans rip 27 1/4 to 1614 3/4, new highs and meal and oil along for the ride. Rice off 14 cents, 1407. Dow off 485 points, 34,183 and over a thousand point drop from the high in under 2 days. Its only the beginning of volatility season out there folks. Bonds off 19 tics, 156.30.
Brazil is still dry, but we are getting moisture in most of the right places in the US over the weekend, and longs are looking to lock profits in front of the Wednesday WASDE report. Corn off 20 1/2 cents, 711 3/4, and wheat down harder, 730 1/2, minus 31 1/4. Front of beans held up best, 1587 1/2, off 2 1/4 with the meal holding as well. New crop beans off 19. Rice off 28 as the long doesn't defend, 1421. None of these grain drops had significant liquidation to go with the fall, so as of now this is a Monday, Tuesday type churn with a big mid week report as a kicker. Dow sets a new high and proceeds to fall 330 points to 34,668, off 18 points and an ugly close action. Bonds give up 14 tics as well, 157.17.
Friday grain room had follow thru strength and fresh reported new crop corn sales to China to keep the ball moving forward. July corn gained 13 1/2 on the day, 732 1/4. The one grain Canada still has a small amount of that we could rail import in a massive pinch is corn. Still, people are finally waking up these last few weeks to the fact that we are running out and will have to ration to get to harvest. That said, we are at some lofty levels for early May. Beans up 20 1/4 to 1589 3/4 with meal up $14 and finally taking the leadership position. Time will tell. Wheat gains 8 1/2 cents, 761 3/4. Rice gets back all Thursdays break and more, 1449, plus 29 in the July. Concerning to me is the July is dragging May up at full carry and attracting some atypical deliveries, like the 112 new receipts out of Erwin/Kieth, Wynne. At the same time July is 35 over September and we have 1500 receipts registered. Plenty of time to reshuffle the chairs on deck, but rest assured, there will be a reshuffle before July first. Dow continues the unlimited FED printing press induced melt up, 34,686, plus 244, while bonds put in a scary day closing off 21 tics, 157.31, but that is a full two and a half points off the daily high. That's a big down move for a nothing Friday.
Strong grain day Thursday as funds continue their buying spree in the Ag room. Wheat soft early but bidding all day runs it back to 8 3/4 higher, 753 1/4. Corn up 10 1/4 to 718 3/4 and December put in a solid day. Beans popped 27 1/4 to 1569 1/2 with oil spreads weakening. but the total underlying products book firm. Rice was a loser, off 21 1/2 because it appeared the fund didn't want to defend Wednesday purchases. Dow up 324 and setting new highs, 34,442. Computers have expanded the range for next week trade to me. I'd be careful. Bonds up 16 tics to close 158.20, and this is in the face of Yellen comments. Another flashing yellow for me in the short term equities.
Wednesday had wheat leading the way, 744 1/2, plus 17 3/4. I bring up wheat first today to remind you that the funds on any given day will push whichever grain they can as far as they can. To me, wheat has the least of the bulls story, but at times also the thinnest opposition. Corn up 11 3/4 to 708 1/2. Oil is finding a high plateau so meal will need to start carrying some of the beans water pretty soon. Beans up 4 cents, 1542 1/4. Rice funds came hard and we gained 700 in open interest in a day. Impressive buying spree. 1441 1/2, up 28. Dow up 98 points, 34,118, and bonds get a 4 tic bump, 158.04.
Strong out of the box Tuesday morning, sticking it to the trend follow sellers from Monday close. Corn was the leader and held well all day, 696 3/4, plus 17 1/4. Dry Brazil weather has some forecasting up to 15 mmt less corn out of Brazil this year, and the world doesn't have room for that kind of loss. If Brazil really does go sub 90mmt production, we could have record yields and still get $5.50 a bu. on the low end. Wheat up 8 3/4 to 726 3/4. Meal and oil both showed some bids, and beans gained 14 1/4 to 1538 1/4. Rice got a fuse lit and what appeared to be fund buying, but I would note that cash stayed bid as well. 1413 1/2, plus 39 1/2. Dow closed up 12 points, 34,020, but that was after probing down 350 points. I'd be wary of another look down there by the computers, and I don't think it would take much of a story for them to run with it. Bonds up 12 tics to 158 even, and Yellen said there might be a need to raise rates to calm down inflation. She got her hand slapped promptly for stepping out of line with the truth, and she quickly got back in her little box. When the truth out of Yellen is immediately shut down, a person should take notice.
Monday morning traded hot but faded thru the day with July beans ultimately losing 10 1/4 cents, 1524. Oil faded hard and meal settled on the lows. We closed beans nearly 40 cents off the highs. July Corn was 19 off the highs but still 6 1/4 better on the day, 679 1/2. Wheat gave up 35 and closed 718, minus 16 3/4. Rice up 4 1/2 in quiet trade, 1374. Dow up/down churn continues like clockwork, 34,008, plus 241, while bonds pick up 12 tics, 157.20.
Deliveries started Friday and so did a few squeezes. May corn up 38 cents, 740, with July up 25. Wheat only up a nickel, 742 1/2. Beans popped 28 1/2 to 1571 as bean oil flirted with 300 higher. Rice only up 1 1/2 with some pretty heavy deliveries, 1338 1/2. Those rice deliveries are at carry and are pretty much a function of banking for a smaller player to me. Will be switching to July futures on Monday quotes moving forward. Back and fill day in the Dow, 33,767, off 184, while the bonds lulled to sleep 157.08, plus 2 tics.
Thursday pre delivery trade kind of a reversal of Wednesday. Corn up 15 3/4 to 702. Wheat gained 12 1/4 to 737 1/2. Beans slipped 15 1/4 to 1542 1/2 with oil giving up near 300 points and deliveries expected, but expected to be used. Rice pops 20 1/2 cents, 1337, and we should get some pretty reasonable amount of rice delivered. Dow gains 227 points, 33,951, and bonds slip 10 tics, 157.06.