Weekend of harvest brought pressure to the grin floor Monday as expected and the holiday probably kept volume lighter than it could have been. Wheat was the surprising weakest leg, 585 1/4, off 13 3/4 and dragging corn along, 408 1/4, minus 7 1/2. Beans broke the buck, 996 close, off 9 1/2. Range churn in rice again, 1510 1/2, plus 11. Dow tested new highs after the world didn't melt down, 43,363, up 220 points and the bonds dropped 19 tics, 119.25.
0 Comments
Grain market soft going into a nice harvest weekend with beans off 9 1/4 cents, 1005 1/2. Corn lost 2 3/4 to 415 3/4 and wheat was off 4 3/4 to 599. Rice playing with the buck and 1499 1/2 close, minus 7. WASDE was pretty much a punt Friday and I'm grateful for that. Dow hits new highs and closes 397 points better, 43,143. Heck of a week of trade in the financials if you are a computer. Bonds recover 6 tics in dull trade, 120.12. Commitments has the funds inching nearer to out of their previously big, short positions in corn and beans. They can pretty much Chaulk up a win for this run.
Exports Thursday good across the board but couldn't overcome the combine and fears of Friday WASDE report. Corn faded 2 1/2 cents, 418 1/2. Beans lost 5 1/2 to 1014 3/4. Rice dropped a dime but still in a tightening churn range, 1506 1/2. Wheat got a small 4 3/4 cent pop, 603 3/4. Global wheat stories not bearish. Dow just catching its breath from a big Wednesday, 42,746, off 67 points and bonds drop another 19 tics, 120.06.
Wednesday trade pretty chill with corn up 1/4 cent, 421 and wheat gaining 4 1/4 to 599. Beans got back 4 cents, 1020 1/4 and rice churn closed 3 better, 1516 1/2. Just a nothing day in front of exports and Friday WASDE. Dow up 438 points to fully erase the 401-point break from Monday, 42,813 while bonds leaked another 11 tics, 120.25.
Tuesday grain room lead lower by beans and bean oil, with soy off 17 3/4 cents, 1016 1/4. Bean market has rolled over from recent highs, and we have a WASDE number Friday that most expect a punt on, so an increase in yields would be tough to swallow. Brazil getting more rain in the forecast isn't helping. Corn off 5 1/4 to 420 3/4 and corn and beans both have to fight the combines for the next couple weeks. Wheat up 2 1/4 with global break pretty much done, 594 3/4. Stable 1513 1/2 rice is plus 2 in churn rangebound trade. Dow recovers 130 points, 42,375 and bonds trying hopefully to base here, 121.04, off 6 tics.
Monday trade surprisingly stable in the grain room and a bit of a head scratcher after a good harvest weekend. Corn up 1 1/4 to 426. Wheat gained 2 3/4 as well, 592 1/2. Rice good for 2 pennies after checking 1530 and rejecting it again, 1511 1/2. Beans only gave up 3 3/4 cents, 1034 and that's with meal resetting. Dow on the other hand looked awful and lost 401 points, 42,245 but really just a bigger churn range. Bonds off 21 tics, 121.10 and if bonds don't find a floor soon it's a clear sign that the big money boys and the FED aren't on the same page. Or maybe they are using the FED to dump their long-term debt as well as they can. Wink, Wink.
Headed into a big harvest weekend so Friday action comes soft as expected. Meal quickly back down to $330 a ton but I think that's still a bit high. Beans off 8 1/4 more to end the week at 1037 3/4, off 28 cents from last Friday. Wheat in a disappointing 589 3/4 close, off 13 3/4 and corn down 3 3/4 to 424 3/4. Corn lost 18K of open interest on the day so it's not like we had a bunch of new shorts. Fund Commitments down to 68K short corn, 35k short beans, 34K of bean oil buying to get long 16K and over 100K of meal longs. Funds will need something new to get long grains and we don't have them short to squeeze out anymore. If anything, the meal position could be a noose around beans neck for the next week or so. Rice wanted to take out 1530 to the upside but couldn't, settling 1509 1/2, softer by 7 1/2. Commercials seem to know there is something out there in rice and we saw the first barge of the McGehee receipts finally get cancelled (Thank you for the river level increase). I wish they would report some of the business so us commoners could see it before it's all shipped.
Exports Thursday morning solid everywhere but rice and the market is overbought enough to look the other way. EU will delay their rainforest regulations by a year and that's not good for US meal. Only grain the funds are long is meal. Beans lost a dime, 1046. Corn down 4 1/4 to 428 1/4 and wheat drops 11 3/4 cents, 603 1/2. Rice closes 1517, up 1/2 after trading both sides with the computer creating churn. Some Iran missiles pierced the Israel shield and hit a military airfield so it's just a matter of time before Israel directly hits Iran. Dow off 193 points after spending most of the day lower, 42,317 and bonds off 27 tics, 123.14.
Humpday trade with wheat leading the strength, 615 1/4, plus 16 1/4 with Egypt booking a slug and Russia looking to cut back sales. We are currently trying to determine what the other importers can afford and who will get those sales. Corn followed for 3 1/2 cents, 432 1/2. Meal is a dog with a big fund long position and the EU is kicking their tree hugger rules down the road a year. That leaves the US as overpriced. Beans weak early but recovered to 1056, off 1 1/4. Rice broke to the buck and found some support, or just lack of willingness to sell below it and closed 1516 1/2, off 13 1/2. Dow up 31 points, 42,510 but soft most of the day and bonds give back 23 tics, 124.09.
Tuesday brought in a new month and more harvest. Beans stable, 1057 1/4, plus 1/4. Corn got a 4 1/4 cent bounce on the back of wheat, 429. Wheat peeked over the buck and settled 599, up 15 cents and maybe finally on solid footing for more ramp. Dow off 164 points and could have been worse, 42,479 and bonds regained 26 tics, 125 even.
|
Archives
October 2024
|
Services |
Company |
|