Continuation of the position resets from Thursday friendly WASDE numbers drive Friday Ag trade. Corn up 4 to 675, and I find the loss of acres a longer term mechanism to move my floor up as its unlikely that the USDA can find those lost acres back in the future. Beans up 9 1/4 to 1527 3/4 on 11k of new open interest as the funds buy back what they sold last week, Meal just couldn't muster the strength up here and faded 5 bucks. We lost yield to make the total numbers work, and with the atypical draw from the Pacific northwest for rail when the river was low, there is room for the USDA to find that yield back in farmer bins later in the year. Wheat only up a penny, 743 3/4 and the fund short position is pronounced. Keep in mind that if the commercial wants cheap grain he doesn't mind the funds keeping futures prices low. Nearly 1/2 of the total open interest in oats is short fund net, but the commercial wants cheap oats so the funds get to collect a break and rolls. I don't have the courage or trust to be that little parasite fish swimming so close to the sharks. Rice up 9 1/2 to 1815 and probably fairly priced knowing that now the door is open if the computers want to make a spike up. Dow looked down to 34K in a 450 point churn day but like clockwork recovered to 34,416, plus 97. Bonds seem tired up here and after looking higher rolled over to 130 even, off 21 tics.
WASDE Thursday opened with nothing exports early, Brazil finding more beans in last years production, and a bigger record crop in soy this year, but all trumped by the WASDE report net reducing carry over to 210 from 220 in the soy. Digging into the numbers, it looks like for both soy and corn the Kansas USDA guy cant count, or just learned how to on this report. An outsized Missouri reduction as well. I believe time will find part of those beans back as the government systems probably aren't set up fort the atypical shipments of soy to the pacific northwest when the river was low. Time will tell, but we have to work with the numbers in front of us for now. Beans up 25 1/4 to 1518 1/2. Corn loses 1.6 million acres (another lack of math capacity that cant be reconciled until January) but gains some yield, net a bullish story and we gain 15 cents, 671. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 742 3/4 in sympathy. Rice got the most bullish report as we are finally accounting for what was a stupid low domestic usage number at the same time realizing that the crop wasn't anything to write home about. 1805 1/2, plus 28 1/2. Dow up 209 to 34,319 in a probing upside churn trade and bonds gain a point and 18 tics in a solid showing, 130.21.
Wednesday trade more of the same churn in front of WASDE numbers Thursday at 11. Corn gains a penny, 656, while wheat gets back 9 it gave away yesterday, 740. Beans bump against $15 but close 1493, plus 8. Rice off 24 cents, 1777, but just back to last Friday numbers. Dow looking at some of the higher side of the churn range, 34,110, up 261 points while the bonds get back 1/2 of the previous days break, 129.03, up 28 tics.
Tuesday trade more squaring in front of Thursday WASDE with corn up 2 1/4 to 655 but wheat losing 10 1/2 to 731. The world is screaming thru wheat that the food shortages are ending. Its up to us to pay attention. Beans off 3 1/2 to 1485. Rice closes 1801, plus 6 1/2. Dow churn to the upside as we get a 179 point higher close, 33,849, while bonds roll over, 128.07, off a point and 22 tics. Fed should put out thier last raise and change the wording to pause in the Feb meeting, but I don't see them dropping rates as soon as most.
Pretty nothing day as we reposition in front of WASDE Thursday. Corn off 1 1/2 to 652 1/4. Wheat off a couple after a try higher, 741 1/2. Beans slip 4 to 1488 1/2.. Rice gets an 18 cent bounce but struggles looking at 18, closing 1794 1/2. Dow off 102 points, 33,670, while bonds pick up 22 tics, 129.29.
Friday gives some risk on trade with Dow getting a potential soft landing on jobs and interest rates. Safe to say the Fed will raise no more than a 1/2 point in Feb, and just might be a 1/4. Bonds rallied a point and 22 tics, 129.07, while the Dow pops 702 points, 33,772. Don't lose track of the fact that we are just in bigger churning ranges. Beans get 21 3/4 cents of the recent break back in a solid bounce lead by front month squeezing of meal and now beans. 1492 1/2. Jan meal is $503, not real world sustainable but puts any short funds on notice to stay away, while march meal is only $460. I think 460 is a bit pricey, but we aren't really in the meal. One thing to keep in mind moving forward is high meal gives DDG a better floor. Corn up 1 1/4 to 654. Wheat down 3 1/4 to 743 1/2 going into a weekend with the Russian corridor I guess in a cease fire zone? Vessel insurance is suppose to go up now in the new year. What I want to note about wheat is even though we are a little tight domestically and crop conditions are feeble at best, the world doesn't care, because they can get enough without coming to our shores. My fear moving forward in beans in a nutshell. Rice gains a dozen, 1776 1/2, in a low volume bounce with a drop in open interest. Probably set the low of the range this week in rice so I'm not as afraid of owning pullbacks going into Jan 12 WASDE.
Thursday trade a down but stabilizing day. Corn looked lower but only a penny down at the close, 652 3/4. Wheat gained 1 1/4 to 746 3/4 on a dime bounce off the lows. Beans down 12 3/4 to 1470 3/4, but meal stayed firm. Still don't trust beans. Rice off 12 1/2 to 1764 1/2 but again a solid bounce off 1728 lows. Open interest didn't show any new shorts for the rice break so all we have really done is transfer longs from weak hands at a high price to strong hands at a much lower price. Dow lost 346 points, 33,070 and bonds picked up a tic, 127.17. Just noise for the churn machines. If you are bored, look up what citadel made last year running the suckers game. Why work for a living when all you have to do is run a different form of lottery but there is nearly no big payouts. Circus like meme stocks only exist to bring in a new wave of rubes.
Ugly day in the grain room with wheat down 30 cents, 745 1/2 and corn off 16 3/4 to 653 3/4. Rice walloped for 62 to 1777 and looking $8 in the face again pretty quickly. There were some 1760 and 1740 puts sold. Might be worth watching after the open tomorrow for a sign of support. Beans fared best only losing 8 3/4to 1483 1/2. We could see a weather bounce Thursday or Friday, but the bulls have been put on notice. Dow up 138 points, 33,416, and bonds gain a point and 9 tics, 127.16. I would expect nothing much more than noise out of the financial room this whole month. Fed will raise 50 basis points and change the wording to pause in February. This may actually work until someone from the budget office explains how much this higher interest rate is going to cost us in taxes.
New year opened Tuesday with some grain selling pressure aided by a little better rainfall in parts of Argentina, but with drier forecasts, wonder if we don't see a Monday/Tuesday type trade. March beans off 31 3/4 to 1492 1/4. Wheat hit for 16 1/2 cents, 775 1/2. Corn down 8 as well, 670 1/2. Rice pushed around but March ultimately settles unchanged, 1839. Dow had a 650 point range to nowhere as the computers stretch their legs in the financials, 33,278, off 7 points. Bonds did get a 28 tic bounce, 126.07.
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