As Friday trade winds down the week and month, we are weaker with tariff talk front and center.  Dow rolled over, 44,698, minus 357 points and bonds dropped 24 tics, 113.29.  These moves are really just back and fill from a pretty nice recent rally, but the weekend could get sloppy.  482 corn off 8 1/4 and a declining open interest which makes one wonder how much more the funds want to defend a weaker market in the face of export uncertainty.  Could exaggerate to the downside for a brief spell next week.  Wheat off 7 to 559 1/2 and a declining OI there takes some bloom off the rose.  Beans close off a couple but really in the middle of a daily range trade, 1042.  Rice off 9 cents, 1384 1/2 but increasing open interest and a wall of buying below 1380 has to have caught the short seller eye, not to mention dropping his average price to a less defendable level.  Big volume to boot.  

I liked exports Thursday, but no one likes the tariff talk.  Beans hit for 16 1/2 cents, 1044.  Corn gives back 6 3/4 to close at 490 1/4 and wheat got a 4-cent bounce on spread unwind but declining open interest, 566 1/2.  Rice down 19 1/2 with talk that the Columbia tender has been scuttled, 1392 1/2.  Dow churn but gained 165 points to close 45,055 and bonds picked up 18 tics, 114.21.

Wednesday grain room had solid bids led by wheat, 562 1/2, plus 17 1/4 and corn in tow, 497, up 11 3/4 more.  My issue is corn added another 33K of open interest to do it and wheats great bounce was on declining open interest, so shorts leaving the show, not new owners.  Beans up 15 1/2 on solid meal bids, 1060 1/2.  Rice bear still pushing, 1413, minus 7 but open interest is increasing, and we have a big new buyer in upside calls.  Dow slips 141 points, 44,890 and bonds close unchanged, 114.03.

Nice bounce in wheat Tuesday, 545 1/4, plus 9 3/34 while corn recovers 3 1/4 cents as well, 485 1/4.  Beans traded both sides but closed unchanged and rice lost another 27 1/2 to 1420.  Change in rice that Tuesday is the first day of really the rally or break back where open interest bounced higher, so we surely have attracted a new buyer at these levels.  Dow up another 127 points, 45,031, so over 1000 points off Mondays lows and bonds slipped 9 tics, 114.03.  

Friday a bit soft with meal off 10 bucks and beans down 9 3/4 to 1055 3/4.  Wheat hit for a dime, 544.  Don't like to see that.  Corn down 3 1/4 cents, 486 1/2 and open interest dropped 14k.  Rice set back 17 1/2 cents, 1467 1/2.  As the Argentina economy migrates to capitalism and the Brazilians regress to socialism, it will be interesting to see how they as a bloc uphold their expected capacity to feed the world.  I think you will see less hoarding for peso gain in Argy so exports should move quicker and more freely, and that was part of the theme with the just announced Argy tax cuts.  They aren't the big producer though, Brazil is, and socialism has never done a good job of feeding people, so these next several years could be interesting in global food trade.  Dow off 147 points to close 44,602, still up nearly 1000 points on the week and bonds up 10 tics, 113.06. 

Nice bounce back in Thursday grain trade with exports delayed a day.  Corn plus 5 1/2 cents, 489 3/4.  Churn machine.  Beans get back 9 1/2 to 1065 1/2 but wheat stalled, 554 for no gain.  Beans and corn both gained a solid amount of open interest as more long specs come to the party.  The wheat trade, or lack thereof, is what keeps me on my heels with corn up here.  Rice just quiet liquidation, 1485, plus 3.  Dow rocked up for another 396-point gain, 44,749 and bonds leaked 18 tics, 112.28.  

Wednesday trade in the grain room follows a standard Monday/Tuesday style with a setback across the floor.  Corn gave up Tuesday rally entirely, 484 1/4, off 5 3/4.  Rice drops 17 cents, 1482.  Wheat held the 50 level with a 554 close, minus 4 3/4. Might determine if wheat is a short cover or a mood change in the next few days.  Beans down 11 1/4 to 1056.  Day's trade took some shine off the bounce and air out of the room.  Dow up another 115 points, 44,353 but trade felt tired to me.  Bonds off 7 tics, 113.14.

After a long weekend we had a firm Tuesday grain room with beans leading the way, 1067 1/4, plus 33 1/4.  Wheat blows thru 550 on the way to a 20 better close, 558 3/4.  Corn up 5 3/4 to 490 and rice gains 18 1/2 cents, 1499.  All for all a powerful grain day.  Dow up 543 points, 44,238 and bonds pick up 18 tics, 113.21.

Nice 9 3/4 cent bounce in corn to lead the way higher in grains Friday and beans up 15 as well, 1034.  Corn added another 51K of open interest to an already large 292K fund long so corn will be defended but I don't know how many more they can bring to the dance.  Beans just shifted from short to long so there is a much longer ramp if the big boys want to play.  A bullish potential for beans would be if China goes back to the last Trump era of grain purchases, not because they are the cheapest, but to keep a lid on Trump tariffs.  Rice up 16 1/2 to 1480 1/2 and the big fund short is still a big fund short.  Would not short rice or any new crop grain for that matter until we find out what deals get cut.   Wheat up 1 1/4 to 538 3/3.  Dow trades 323 points better to end the week in front of the inauguration at 43,695 while bonds add 3 tics in quiet trade, 113.03.  

Little something for most in the exports report but nothing earth moving.  Corn gives back Wednesday rally, 474 1/2, off 4 1/4.  Wheat off 9 1/2 to 537 1/2.  Beans hit for 23 3/4 cents, 1019 and rice pushed 19 lower, 1464.  I think the underlying concern is Trump tariffs out of the box might cause a hit next week and markets are liquid enough that if you want to get back long its won't be that hard to do.  Dow catching a breather, 43,372, off 94 points and bonds up another 15 tics, 113 even.