Hump day brought ripping financials with tiny news, realizing that the systems ran out of sellers to herd out, so the path of least resistance is up. Dow up another 714 points, 43,466 and bonds pop a point and 20 higher, 112.17. Last Friday had the Dow beat down to 42,160 so we rallied 1300 points in 3 days. Wow. Christmas day we were 43,645, so who really made any money since Christmas but the computer? A 2-point rally in bonds still has us 7 full points below the recent highs. Corn up 4 1/4 to 478 3/4 while wheat struggles to stay put, 547, plus 3/4. Beans slipped another 4 3/4 to 1042 3/4. Rice fund short still feeling the squeeze although I would say there was clearly some longs ringing the register and the short funds sure are patient. 1483, up 10 1/2. Still waiting for a big volume day in rice.
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Bit of a chill day Tuesday with corn off 2 cents, 474 1/2 and beans giving back 5 1/2 to close 1047 1/2. The 27K corn add in open interest got paid nothing for the effort. Wheat added 1 1/4 to 546 1/4. Fund short feeling the pressure in rice, 1472 1/2, plus 23. Still a huge short, but a lot less profit in the trade for them now. Grain room is still digesting Friday's numbers and they just can't justify the low prices we traded before. I still struggle why we were given such poor numbers to begin with. Dow up 229 points, 42,752 and bonds up 2 tics, 110.29.
Strong Monday trade follow thru buying with meal finding a bid and oil holding the recent rally allowing beans to ramp up 27 3/4 cents, 1053. Funds had been short so there is room to bid just to get flat. Wheat got a 14 1/4 cent pop, 545. Corn up 6 to 476 1/2, but corn gained another 53K of open interest. Lots more buyers at a crowded dance floor there. Rice up 3 to 1449 1/2, and delayed commitments has the funds with a huge short (5300 net) against a commercial with a very sizable (4100) long. Dow doesn't get any more fear lower and recovers 363 points higher at the end of the day, 42,523 while bonds test new lows again, 110.27, off 12 tics.
WASDE didn't disappoint the bulls on Friday with big drops in yield for corn and beans and corresponding rallies for the futures. Record or near record yield misses from previous. Corn pops 14 1/2 to 470 1/2. Interesting to me that open interest jumped 72K to do it. Beans up 26 1/4 to 1025 1/4 and open interest up only 4K, 2600 of that in new crop. Rice up 6 1/2 cents, 1446 1/2 and open interest still over 12K so not too many funds have got off the ship. Wheat off 3 1/4 to 530 3/4 after testing lows at 526. At a certain point the globe loses feed demand in corn to wheat, and I have to believe with basis we are knocking on that door. Dow lower early and stayed crappy, 42,160 close near the bottom of an 800+ point range while bonds off another 29 tics and looking at contract lows again, 111.07.
Muted 1/2 day trade Thursday with delayed exports and balancing in front of Friday reports. Corn recovers 2 cents, 456 and beans bounce 4 1/2 to 999. Pretty decent action in the soy game. 534 wheat off 2 1/4. Rice up 32 on fund short liquidation, 1440. Still a bunch of air above to me. Dow was officially closed, 42,878 and bonds picked up 5 tics, 112.04.
Positioning in front of Friday reports with a little less zeal for buying, Corn off4 cents, 454. Wheat down 6 1/4 to 536 1/4 and beans off 2 3/4 to 994 1/2. Rice got a 15-cent pop, 1408 as one of the short funds may have finally figured out, they are in a pool full of other rats. Dow churn and standard dress close, 42,878, plus 75 points while the bonds continue to make new lows, 111.31, minus 6 tics. I would not want to try to catch that knife.
Main grains looked lower early Tuesday but held and recovered with corn up 1/4 cent by the close, 458. Beans only off 1/4 cent, 997 1/4 and wheat got 2 better on the day, 542 1/2. Rice was a bit better most of the day and even with some late pressure we closed up 3 cents, 1393. Funds are a massive short of rice right now. Dow went from a couple hundred better to 179 lower, 42,803 and bonds put in new lows again, 112.05.
Nice Monday bounce back in corn, 457 3/4, plus 7 and wheat gained 11 1/4 to 540 1/2. Beans up 6 cents, 997 3/4 but a dime off the highs and rejecting 10 bucks again. Rice off 3, stalled at 1390. Dow looks solid early but drops over 400 from the highs by the end of the day, 42,982, minus 39. Bonds flirting with a 112 handle and new lows for the life of contract, 113.04, off 13 tics.
Surprising weakness to end the shortened first week of the new year, corn off 8 3/4 to 450 3/4 and wheat hit for 16 1/2 cents, 529 1/4 after rejecting 550. Beans off 20 1/4 to 991 3/4 and rice down 18 1/2 to 1393. In the bigger picture we mostly gave up the weeks work to the upside with a one day selling attack, but what concerns me is the hole that opens below when we do get soft. We are more trading SA than US anyway right now, but still? Dow up 327 points, 43,021 and bonds slip 7 tics, 113.17.
We opened the new year in a holding patten Thursday, Corn up a penny, 459 1/2 and beans up 1 1/2 to 1012. Rice up 1 1/2 as well, 1411 1/2. Wheat did slip to 545 3/4, off 5 3/4 and rejecting the 550 level. Dow off 179 points but no real conviction either way, 42,694 while bonds gave up 3 tics, 113.24.
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