Risk off Wednesday as talks of some kind of truce gain traction, and wheat 85 lower, 1069 1/4. Corn in tow, off 28 to 730. Rice hit for 31 1/2 as well, 1586 1/2. Beans fare best, off 9 1/2 cents, 1649 1/4. Dow plays around with lower on the day when the FED raised rates .25 as expected, but then the computers ran us 527 higher late, 33,954. Bonds off 7 tics, 151.26.
Wheat market strong Tuesday as global tenders come to market and Russia talks of limiting or stopping exports for a period. 1154 1/4, plus 58. Corn in tow, 758, up 9 3/4. Rice up 8 to 1618. Beans do set back another 11 3/4 to 1658 3/4 and some talk of demand shift out of China with a new version of the Wuhan flu getting lock-downs running again over there. Dow gets back yesterday highs and more, 33,427, up 589, and bonds leak 15 tics, 152.01. Fed on Wednesday and expect a 1/4 bump.
After the weekend of Russia news but a chance of cease fire, people wanted to take some risk off the table Monday. Corn down 14 1/4 to 748 1/4. Wheat off 10 1/4 to 1096 1/4. Beans close 1670 1/2, off 5 1/2. Grain markets are tired here and looking for some new news to push higher. Rice did pop 24 1/2 to 1610 but I think domestic demand is there to justify it. June financials, with Dow up 25 points, 32,838, but that was 450 off the highs, so not as benign as it looks, and bonds get walloped for 2 points 18 tics to the downside, 152.16. Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in the face of global turmoil this month. What happens when you let academics run real world operations..
Friday talk early of a possible agreement with Russia had the market whipping around all day. Good for the computers I guess. Wheat had an 80 cent range and chewed up the last of the weak longs, then bounced back to 19 1/2 higher, 1106 1/2. Corn up 6 3/4 to 762 1/2. Beans off 10 1/4 to 1676 with weak meal, and rice off 3 1/2 cents, 1585 1/2. Dow weak to end the day as few wanted to trust any cease fire talk, 32,925, off 227 and over 750 off the highs of the day. Bonds up 11 tics, 153.05, and we will switch to June in the financials starting Monday.
Great export sales in corn and beans to open the morning, and at the end we were 22 3/4 higher in the corn, 755 3/4 and 14 1/2 better beans, 1686 1/4. Products solid as well. 1087 wheat is off 114 1/2, but pretty sure all the weak longs got flushed today and Russia is going to halt exports. Rice bear out of gas and we close up 5 1/2 to 1589. Light volume but it appears there was some bidding waiting for the next wave down. Dow spent the whole day lower and needed a push up to get to 33,152, still off 113, and bonds off 28 tics, 152.26.
WASDE brought expected changes in the grains Wednesday and was a punt. Computers running the weak long out of wheat now, 1201 1/2, off 85 cent limit. Markets couldn't hold any higher talk with wheat down limit and talk of progress towards some form of relief in Ukraine. I wouldn't bet it. Corn 20 lower, 733, while beans get pushed 18 lower late, 1671 3/4. Rice down 17 to 1583 1/2. Dow puts on a happy face, 33,265, up 663, while the bonds give up a point and 13 to 153.22.
Sloppy day Tuesday with the Dow churning 1000 and closing off 180 points, 32,602. Bonds break 2 points 17 tics, 155.03. Corn 2 1/4 higher, 753 at the end, and that was a quarter rally off the lows. Wheat had about a 2 dollar range, 1286 1/2, off 7 1/2 and some really happy computers. Bear in rice got us 24 1/2 lower, 1600 1/2, and bull in beans 1689 3/4, up 30 1/4. Meal and oil with a bid.
Monday Dow ripped around but down 801 at the end of the day, 32,782. Bonds up 13 tics, 159..20. Wheat up limit 85 in may again, 1294, but July lagged all day. Corn 30 off the highs and 3 1/2 lower at the close, 750 3/4. Beans tried 17 early, couldn't make it, and faded to a penny lower on the day, 1659 1/2. Rice off 19 1/2 with a sell program appearing to be on again, 1625.
Markets revolve around Russia again Friday. Wheat 75 higher and limit up again, 1209. Corn looked at limit but couldn't hold it, 754 1/4, up 6 1/2. Rice up 8 1/2 and trying to figure out who to follow, or if corn and wheat will drive us into more rice export sales. Ratios say yes. Beans leaked 7 1/4 to 1660 1/2 with meal firm but oil backing up. Anything goes this year, so don't lock yourself into old ideas, and bring a big checkbook when you enter any exchange contract, because the computers will be hunting you. As long as the story is Ukraine, wheat and corn production will be the lead. We are already interfering with the early planting. In America, anything could be on the table, from opening up CRP land, to price controls. You can bet these prices are buying some acres to wheat from the other grains. Dow had to bounce over 350 points from the lows to close 33,583, still off 155. Bonds gained 2 points, 10 tics to 157.07.
Nothing unexpected in export sales early, but Russia is upping the game in the Ukraine, and that locks wheat limit 75 up, 1134. Synthetics much higher still, but that can at times be a relatively easy optic to create. Corn was limit but faded to 22 3/4 higher, 747 3/4. Beans traded 1699 early but close 1667 3/4, up 4 3/4. Rice hit stops early and ran up to 1689, but faded as well, 1636, plus 14 1/2. Seems like the machines love to poke these holes one day and then explore how well it sticks the next, so its worth watching how the market reacts if we hit those highs again today. Dow in a relatively quiet day, 33,738, off 111 points, and bonds pick up 11 tics, 154.29.
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