Early trade Thursday in the Dow 300 higher, but faded thru the day with concerns af more aggression in the Ukraine, ending 124 lower, 34,358. Bonds dropping 2 points and 4 tics, 141.02 didn't help. That was a bit of an unexpected head fake as bonds acted like they had set a base Tuesday. Until they start talking depression/recession, its too dangerous to buy a bond contract. worth repeating, for bonds and Ag, Don't fade the thesis. Wheat took a break and settled off 17 cents, 1096 1/2. Beans had a 6 1/4 rally with solid products, 1682 1/4, and corn picked up 6 3/4 to new highs, 790 1/4. Worth noting that the funds got to roll at premiums. Cash in the country over $8 in places. Rice had over 1000 spread roll in a very tight full carry based range as well as 275 new bullish options in the gray market and something clearly stirring in the cash, 1619 1/2, plus 43 1/2 for a solid weekly close. I'm told river freight has softened for May shipment,
Risk on trade Wednesday pretty much everywhere as there were some Fed indications that we might only see a 1/4 point bump (I still look for 1/2 in May). Dow popped 343 points, 34,482, and bonds gained back 24 tics, 143.06. Weaker meal was used to try to push beans down, but strong oil and real bean demand got us back 5 3/4 higher by the close, 1676. Wheat held all the recent rally and added another 9 3/4 to 1113 1/2 and corn picked up 7 1/4 more in old crop, 783 1/2. Rice even gained a nickel with spread roll the main feature and some business being reported, 1576. Weather and competing prices are stealing rice acres every day, and that will have longer term legacy effects, not only here, but in the other southern hemisphere exporting countries.
Monday-Tuesday action for the second day of the week, With corn gaining 11 3/4 to 776 1/4, Rice up 8 1/2 cents, 1571, and beans up 15 as well, 1670 1/4. Wheat continues its rally to back over 11 bucks, 1103 3/4, plus 22 1/2. Dow off 80 points, 34,139, and bonds bounce 12 tics, 142.14.
Monday a bit of risk off as the Dow gets pushed 394 lower, 34,219 and bonds off another point a 3 tics. 142.02. Wheat gains 29 3/4 to 1081 and no hope for a settlement in the Ukraine. Corn off 4 in the front, 764 but not looking to get beat down with wheat holding well. Beans give up most of Friday gains, off 33 to 655. Rice off 15 cents, 1562.
Strong Friday trade with the whole soy complex solid, and beans up 43 1/2 to 1689. Wheat up 31 1/2 cents, 1051 1/2, and corn in tow for 11 as well, 768 3/4. Rice did slip 3 1/2 lower, 1578 as the commercial still wanting to keep the market down to capture banker induced pre-plant farmer selling. Bonds drop another point and 3 tics for a sorry week, 143.05, and the Dow gained 123 in a churn trade day, 34,613.
Nothing exciting day after nothing exciting Thursday export sales report. WASDE tomorrow and world production numbers after might hold a small surprise. Corn looked lower but settled 1 1/4 higher, 757 3/4. Beans rallied 26 cents, 1645 1/2. Oil had some strength, but beans did most of the lifting independently. Rice drifted 9 lower with no one wanting to push too much either way and the computer reading the bids and offers more than trade. 1581 1/2. Wheat down 18 1/4 to 1020 and just flopping around. In one breath the global situation is friendly, but we need more export business and there are way too may receipts to get excited. Dow rallied nearly 400 from the lows to close 34.490, plus 91 points, and bonds drop a point and 6 tics, 144.08.
Wednesday trade soft as we back and fill some after the strong start to the week. Corn slips 3 1/4 to 756 1/2 and wheat off 7 cents, 1038 1/4. Soy complex a little softer and beans close 1619 1/2, off 11 1/2. Rice down 13 to 1590 1/2 as the mills are running hard but exports are running a bit behind. River freight this high isn't helping, but Mexico doesn't have much left to ship before they have to came back to the table. Dow off 151 points, 34,399 on a lower trade thru the day and some getting big picture skittish that it might be time to leave the dance for a while. Bonds off another 31 tics, 145.14. Dangerous knife to catch.
Tuesday strength continues in the Ag room with wheat up 35 cents, 1045 1/4, and corn up another 9 1/4 to 759 3/4. Meal strong and beans pop 28 3/4 to 1631. Rice quietly 1603 1/2, up 7. Dow rolls over on hawkish Fed comments, 34,550, off 279 and soft to the touch. Bonds off 2 points, 15 tics as well, 146.13, and we will probably see interest rates jump quicker than some currently think.
Monday opens with a bid as we book a million tons of corn to China and the Russia/Ukraine issue seems to be getting worse. Corn pops 15 1/2 on the news, 750 1/2. Wheat stronger still after being pushed down too far Friday, 1010 1/4, plus 25 3/4. Beans close 1602 1/4, up 19 1/2, with meal catching a bid and oil strong too. Dow up another 111 at the close with a late rally, 34.829, while bonds slip 30 tics, 148.28.
Continued selling Friday after Thursday soft report with large fund longs needing new fuel. Corn off 13 3/4 in the front, 735, and the big spread roll will be coming with May/July 13 over. A bit of the same story in beans, 1582 3/4, off 35 1/2 and again strong 16 cent inverse in a roll spread just around the corner. Meal got whacked following China action, but maybe enough for now. Wheat down 21 1/2 to 984 1/2. with the spread even and a lot of receipts at the board. Still struggle to see wheat below $10 with what is going on in the world. Rice off 1/2 cent, 1600 1/2. Dow dressed up 100 points for the Friday close, 34,718 and bonds slip 8 tics, 149.26.
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