More China corn sales and tensions in the Russia corridor give corn a 14 cent bounce Friday, 666 1/4. Wheat up 15 1/2 as well, 682 1/2. 1500 1/2 beans are a nothing at the end and rice funds push down 16 cents, 1738 1/2. Dow leaks 153 points, 34,037 and bonds off a point and 4 tics, 130.23. Lets get planting dialed in this weekend.
Exports didn't give us much bull fuel Thursday morning as we mostly took a break day. Corn slips 3 3/4 to 652 1/4 with wheat dogging to 667, minus 12 1/2. Wheat is just a computer churn game with bullish global stories whenever necessary and a bearish contract design. If there was ever a buy low sell high contract, forgetting about anything fundamental, this is it. 1501 beans are off 3 1/4 and rice looks both sides but ends off 1/2 cent, 1754 1/2. Huge drop in open interest for one day as both sides unwind. For those that don't trade rice, I think you still need to at least watch a bit of its action to help see just how much the computers and funds can push a market beyond reasonable pricing models and how much time and margin they can inflict on honest hedges. Dow back above 34K and holding 337 points higher to close out the day at 34,190. Bonds slip 11 tics, 131.26.
Wednesday markets seemed to struggle to find a leader as it looks like some were just looking to leave the dance. Corn bounces a nickel, 656, wheat 5 1/2 to 679 1/2 and beans up 7 cents, 1504 1/4. Rice fund shorts getting blown out again for another 59 1/2 to 1755 and back to reasonable pricing to me based on supply. Never any reason to break as far as we did. The one thing every grain had in common today? Everything dropped open interest. Still 18 days to the end of the month and I know the roll is going on, but still, makes one wonder if money is getting ready for another shoe to drop. Dow looked higher but faded to 33,813, off 39 points. Same story in bonds with a 7 tic lower close, 132.05.
For the most part, WASDE report was a punt Tuesday. Slight decease in corn stocks didn't materialize and corn leaked 3 cents, 651. Wheat off 4 1/2 as well, 674. Drop in Argy production and plain old order flow gave beans a dime rally, 1497 1/4. Rice stocks cut to pipeline and we ramp up 54 1/2 cents to 1695 1/2, recovering most of the last weeks break on not nearly enough volume to get the recent sellers covered. New crop gained 52 cents on 81 total traded. A bit thin? Dow up 101 points in a quiet day, 33,852 and bonds leak 6 tics, 132.12. Lets keep the planters running.
Monday trade has Russia making more noises about shutting down Ukraine exports. Truth is Ukraine people will possibly need that food if this war makes it to the winter. Corn regains all Thursday losses, 654, plus 10 1/2. Wheat has an up and down day but gains 3 at the end, 678 1/2. Beans leak 5 1/4 to 1487 1/4. Rice bear hits new crop 55 cents with planters hard in the fields, May off 22 1/2 to 1641. Bull spreads firming. Pretty quiet Dow day, 33,751, up 92 points while bods slip 17 tics, 132.18. WASDE at 11 Tuesday.
Holiday shortened week in the grains ended Thursday pretty weak across the board as planting is working its way north. Exports great in rice and meal but nothing exciting anywhere else. Meal had a small pop but the crushers kept all the profit and more as beans dropped 18 1/2 cents. Corn down 9 1/4 to 643 1/2 and wheat lost 6 1/2 as well, 675 1/2. Rice opened bid but faded to 1663 1/2, down 19 1/2 on the day. Dow spent most of the day a little lower but mustered back to 33,659, plus 3 points. Bonds up a tic, 134.03. Have a safe and joyous Easter.
Not a lot happening Wednesday. Beans tried higher early with a flash sale but faded to 1511, off 6 1/2 at the end of the day. Argentina dollar grain program will get some exports. Corn slipped a penny, 652 3/4. Wheat taking the path of least resistance downward 9 1/2 cents, 682. Rice bear didn't get paid as we bounced 4 cents to 1683. There was a 120 lot in vs cash done as well. Business at these prices. Dow in a dead day up 79 points, 33,656 and bonds gain another 30 tics to the top of my range for this move, unless there is some significant global shift over the coming long weekend, 134.02.
A bit of risk off Tuesday with the Dow fading 209 points, 33,577, and bonds gaining a point and 6 tics, 133.04. Rice sell machine pushed again, 1679, off 29 and down to technical support. I have to believe at this price point we are attracting more exports. Wheat firm early but leaked to 691 1/2, off a couple. Corn looked lower early but recovered most of the loss, 653 3/4 off 4. Same story in beans, 1517 1/2, off 4 1/2 cents. Markets are chopping for now. More important to worry about planting.
Monday trade relatively firm out of the box with crude oil production cuts and what will ultimately be Russia nationalizing their grain system. Nothing big blew up so Dow was risk on, 33,786, plus 326 points while bonds gained 25 tics, 131.30 and nearing the upper part of the range trade. Corn and wheat both firm early but leaked thru the day with corn off 2 3/4 to end the day 657 3/4, while wheat stayed above water, 693 1/2, up 1 1/4. Beans continued upward, 1522, plus 16 1/2. Air getting thinner up here for soy. Rice sell system is still at play and I'm guessing the last of the freed up cash rice is finding a home, 1708, down another 33 1/2. Options positions should help us find a base in rice pretty soon.
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