Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Wednesday

4/30/2025

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Humpday trade and last day of the month, with delivery notices thrown in, but no more delivery clerks' pressure on the longs all come together for a bit of a grain bounce.  Switching to July in the grain room, corn and wheat each gain 5 1/4 cents, 475 1/2 corn close and 530 3/4 for the wheat.  Rice rocks 42 1/2 higher to recover from a hard to justify break, 1321 1/2.  Still sub $6 a bushel rice.  Beans a bit soft, 1044 1/2, off 8 1/4.  Talking heads tried all day to beat down the financials but in the end the Dow closed 112 higher, 40,770 and bonds were only off 14 tics, 116.20.  You know, if the government injects a few trillion less into the US economy via deficit spending, but at the same time foreign and US companies spend several trillion into the US economy, it could actually be a positive.
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Tuesday

4/29/2025

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Tuesday trade dominated in the grain room by spread rolls and flat long liquidation in front of deliveries.  Spreads widened in almost every case.  May corn off 15 cents, 460 1/2.  Wheat hit for another 9 3/4 to 505 3/4 and trading contract lows.  Beans down 11 to 1041 and rice was off 3 1/2 after an early push lower didn't get the stops the computers had hoped for.  1247 1/2.  Dow gained 290 points, 40,658 and bonds picked up another 22 tics, 117.02.
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Monday

4/28/2025

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Monday trade just players preparing for first intentions on Tuesday close.  Margin and delivery clerks keeping pressure on the May futures longs to get out or liquidate by Tuesday close to avoid delivery.  Corn off 3 1/4 to 475 1/2 and wheat gets hit for 14 1/2 cents, 515 1/2.  Beans got a 2 1/4 cent bounce 1052 but really just trading the other side of the 1050 strike that just left us.  Rice had a wash out with no one there to guard the hen house, 1191 low and a 1251 close, off 42 1/2.  Financials stable and comparatively mild trade.  Dow up 114 points, 40,368 and bonds up another 18 tics, 116.12.
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Friday

4/25/2025

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Markets spent Friday cleaning up in front of options expiration and May first notice next week.  Corn up 1 1/2 cents, 478 3/4 and wheat pinned the 530 strike for a 3/4 cent gain.  Beans slipped 3 1/4 to 1049 3/4 and rice pushed below the buck, 1293 1/2, off 17 1/2.  May open interest already under 1700 so doesn't look like much in the way of fireworks in deliveries there.  May open interest dropped hard across the ag floor, but I'd say it was expected and orderly.  Dow off 8 points to close the week at 40,254 and bonds gained another 20 tics on top of Thursdays solid gains, 115.26 close.
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Wednesday

4/23/2025

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Humpday trade solid in the financials again with the Dow up 418 points, 39,775.  It was up 1200 early so it's probably exhausted for now.  Bonds kind of the same story with an 18 tic better close, 114.05, but well off the highs.  We are marching to options expiration for May on Friday and then deliveries next week, so you can bet the delivery clerks are putting pressure on long futures players.  Same story, different month.  Corn off 3 3/4 to 472 while wheat drops 7 1/4 cents, 528 1/4.  Rice hit for a dime, 1320 1/2.  Beans the sole positive, 1040 1/4, plus 5 1/4.  Guess where the biggest strike is in bean options.
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Tuesday

4/22/2025

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Giant churn trade Tuesday in the financials with the Dow fully recovering Monday's flop, 39,357, plus 1029 points.  Bonds up 18 tics, 113.19.  Beans held the best in the grain room, 1035, plus 5 1/2, with some hope that the China issues will be resolved sooner rather than later.  I'm skeptical.  Wheat off another 3 cents, 535 1/2 and corn drops 6 to 475 3/4.  Rice had big spread roll but little short cover and we were pushed 24 lower, 1330 1/2.  
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Monday

4/21/2025

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After a long holiday weekend, we came into a financial storm Monday with Powell and Trump not playing nice.  Thats all the fuel the computers needed to work the financial markets back toward the lower part of their established churn range.  Don't overthink or get caught up in the noise.  Dow off 1001 points, 38,328 and bonds off a point and 17 tics, 113.01.  We are still above the lows they set on the first flush down and as much as the powers that are being displaced don't like it, the powers doing the displacing don't mind.  Notice how much profit the big trading houses are making on this noise.  Wheat led the grain room lower, 538 1/2, minus 10 1/4.  Beans off 7 cents, 1029 1/2 and corn strength of the day finally caved, 1/2 lower at the close, 481 3/4.  Rice up another 7 1/2 to 1354 1/2 with the short fund again mostly rolling but some short cover.  
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Thursday

4/17/2025

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Thursday trade has decent exports in beans and corn ending a short week pre-holiday trade where most are looking for protection or the sidelines.  Corn slips 2 to 482 1/4.  Beans off 2 1/4 to 1036 1/2.  Wheat closed a penny better, 548 3/4, but that was almost the low of the day.  Rice recovers 7 cents, 1347.  A major healthcare stock that anchors the Dow hit hard and that was weight on the Dow all day, 39,329, off 524 points.  Bonds off 23 tics, 114.18.
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Wednesday

4/16/2025

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Fed comments Wednesday in Chicago from Powell about leaving rates alone, going against what Trump wants, as well as the EU dropping rates, all putting pressure on the Dow, 39,853, off 722 points.  Powell holding the line on short rates good for the longer duration as bonds gain 14 tics, 115.09.  Bond stability also gives confidence that the computers are opening up their churn range rather than a new melt down.  Corn gets a 3-cent rally, 484 1/4 while wheat gains 5 3/4 to 547 3/4.  Beans up 2 3/4 to 1038 3/4.  Rice hit for 33 cents, 1340 as the funds used most all their powder in the roll and very little in the buy to cover column.  
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Tuesday

4/15/2025

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Consolidation type trade Tuesday as we attempt to find a new base to work from, financials and grains.  Smaller range in the Dow and a push lower late, 40,575, minus 166 points.  Bonds up 11 tics, 114.27.  Last week the financial world was going to collapse, now we are much higher and basing.  Yet again, whenever the news outlets all tell the same story, it is designed to scare you into making a poor decision.  Corn off 3 3/4 to 481 1/4 while wheat slips 5 1/2 cents, 542.  Beans down 5 3/4 to 1036.  Rice picked up a couple cents, 1373.  Exports in all the grains Thursday could hold some surprises, and we expect a bigger corn number.  
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