Friday opened with delayed exports but really a feeling out day by the computers and no one wanting to move. Corn quietly pushed to recent lows, 444 close. Wheat has rejected anything below 530 this week but couldn't muster a bounce, 534, unchanged. Beans off a dime, 1041 3/4 as we probe if there is any interest below 1040. Rice recovers Thursday drift but hitting what I'm assuming is farmer selling north of $6 a bu, 1349 1/2 close, plus 14. Early look lower in the financials didn't attract money and we closed 27 points better, 42,294, while bonds closed unchanged, 113.06.
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Thursday market mixed with exports delayed and a big churn range in the Dow but nothing really to show for it. 42,267 close, plus 97 points after the noise settled. Bonds up 27 tics, 113.06. Wheat gained 4 3/4 cents, 534 and beans picked up 3 1/4 for a 1051 3/4 close. Corn slipped 4 to 447 and rice took a break from the very solid rally, 1335 1/2, off 14.
After a long weekend that brought no major global shifts and postponed tariffs for Europe, Tuesday morning found a big bid in financials. Dow up 736 points, 42,410 and bonds gain a point and 8 tics, 112.29. Beans up 2 1/4 to 1062 1/2 and corn held steady in the front, 459 1/2. A little pressure in new crop corn worth watching. Wheat spanked down 14 cents, 528 1/2 and I hate to see wheat able to be pushed down so hard so easily. Rice short cover continues, 1332 1/2, plus 15 1/2. Open interest continues to shrink as both sides leave the field. There are more calls out for the USDA to reconcile PP acres sooner.
Trade Friday was more of a settle up for the long holiday weekend and no one really wanted to commit. Most everything settled near the middle of the day's range. Wheat off a couple cents, 542 1/2 as it slips away from the 550 area but not with any conviction. Corn off 3 1/2 to 459 1/2 and some talk that the Brazil second crop is getting bigger is a concern. Beans down 7 1/4 to 1060 1/4 but a dime gain for the week. Fact that all the grains were better on the week. Rice fully recovered Thursday drop, 1317, plus 25 1/2 but a big drawdown in open interest, 400 down in the July on 1000 volume. Thats both sides leaving the dance. In all the grains, prompt new exports are the fuel we need to get an outsized pop. Dow had an 800-point range and settled 41,674, off 251 on a late in the day leak. Bonds pick up 15 tics, 111.21.
Nothing big in exports to start Thursday trade and an early push lower had no followers. Corn gained a couple cents by the end of the day, 463 close and beans picked up 4 3/4 to 1067 1/2. Wheat slipped 4 3/4 to 544 1/2 and I expected a little more support in the wheat. Rice giving back part of the big Wednesday pop, 1291 1/2, minus 24 1/2 but back into bids. Dow off 22 points, 41,925 and bonds recover 13 tics, 111.06.
Pretty solid Humpday in the grain room with rice finally leading the way, 1316, plus 46. Beans picked up 9 3/4 to 1062 3/4 and corn gained 6 1/2 to 461. Wheat stuck at the 550 magnet that has seemed to be there forever, 549 1/4, plus 3 1/4. Not so good in the financials as we rolled over in the Dow, as expected, 41,947, off 825 points and a bit more surprising in the bonds with a point and 25 tic hit to the downside, 110.25.
Tuesday grain room lead by strong wheat pricing, 546 close for a 17-cent gain as we gravitate back towards 550. Corn picked up 7 to 454 1/2 and beans came along just a little, 1053, plus 2 1/4. Rice up a penny 1270, but more importantly, the bear could find no one else to sell for him. Dow slips 113 points, 42,772 and bonds are off 7 tics, 112.18.
Wheat and corn each gain 4 cents Monday, 529 and 447 1/2 closes. Beans traded both sides and closed 1050 3/4, plus 3/4 cent. Rice off 12 1/2 as the seller keeps a lid with small offers, 1269. After all the weekend news about certain destruction of the US economy and implosion of our debt service capacities, financials opened lower but really dusted off the noise, Dow closing 149 points better, 42,885 and bonds were only off 19 tics, 112.25. I have the Dow toppy and tired in my system, but bears are going to have to up the fear mongering to the next level pretty soon. Not sure what the next distraction will be, but the countdown clock has started.
Friday trade a little softer in the grain room with corn off a nickel, 443 1/2 and wheat down 7 3/4 to 525. Weak meal drags beans 1 1/4 lower, 1050. Rice slips 9 1/2 cents with a very large, short fund in favor of a weaker market and a rehashed arsenic risk story published, but magickly Calrose is ok. I don't understand why this keeps getting rehashed without more significant rebuttal, but it seems to carry less weight each time. Dow up 351 points to end the week at 42,736 and bonds up 10 tics, 113.12.
Tuesday trade softer early with wheat testing contract lows before a bounce back to a couple cents better on the day, 517 1/4. Corn off 5 1/2 cents, 442 1/2 with quite a few questioning exports and some talk the acres will be a tad bigger. Beans lower early but close 1 1/4 better for a full recovery, 1072 1/2. Rice off 30 with the computer allowing for a lower price because of increased carry over. Now the farmer still in the game gets hosed. Later we will get the official "oopsie", we were a bit high, weren't we? They got no kick back for doing it in corn, why worry about a little grain. The long run plus side is this should force a few hands in the farm bill. The downside is if they set the price too high, we will be stuck overplanting with very little chance of measurable rallies.
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