Last trading day of the month and several government reports sure led to some debatable action in futures.  Corn given more acres and plenty of stocks, abet in hard to truly quantify farmer hands and Sept briefly checks a $3 handle, closing off 15 cents, 407 1/2.  If these numbers hold water over the long haul, we will need to reestablish what a low price for corn is.  I have some questions and observations that I will post internally thru the day Monday.  Sept wheat off 6 to 573 1/2 and as long as we handle harvest in an orderly matter, I expect global forces to soon lead wheat.  August beans off 2 3/4 cents, 1133 1/2 and Nov off 3/4 to 1104.  It's been noted that our meal strength goes against what we should expect given the size of SA soy crops, but the proof is in the exports, so something is amiss.  Sept rice off 5 1/2 cents, 1539.  Acres now within 20K of original beginning of the year internal estimates.  We will go deeper into those numbers thru the next few days as well. Dow opened up the churn range a bit on Friday which leads me to be wary of a bigger move in the coming week.  39,469, off 81 points and bonds lose 32 tics, a full point, 118.10.

Thursday exports held no real surprises and the grain room leak mostly continues.  I want to remind everyone again that a lot of the fuel at the tail end of this break has been longs forced out by delivery clerks and already short funds getting shorter.  I know there is talk about this being a remake of 2014, but it's way too early to me to make those comparisons and market bias didn't have this kind of participation.  Corn off 6 1/4 to 413 3/4 for a new low.   Beans down 10 1/2 cents, 1152 1/4.  July rice pummeled, 1675 1/2, minus 104 1/2.  Wheat, which helped start the break bounced 18 1/2 cents, 559 3/4.  Quiet churn in the financials with the Dow up 10 points, 39,550 and bonds gaining back 12 tics, 119.10.

Humpday trade started on firm footing but faded thru the day.  Corn traded up to 430 but ended the day at 420, off 5 1/2.  Wheat closed off 1/2 cent, 541 1/4 but that was more than a dime off the highs.  Beans were 15 better but closed off 1/2 cent as well, 1162 3/4.  July rice took an 81-cent hit, 1780.  July open interest in all the grains is down to nominal numbers with Thursday close being first intentions and exposing any long to deliveries.  This has been a bloody run down.  Dow looked lower but recovered, 39,540, plus 14 while bonds got hit for a point and 7 tics, 118.30.

Another soft day Tuesday in the Ag room with grains looking at new lows.  Corn off another 8 after trying to base, 425 1/2.  Beans drop a dozen to 1163 1/4.  Wheat drops 10 3/4 to 541 3/4.  July rice up 9 1/2 cents, 1861 but Sept rice is weaker along with the rest of the floor.  Financials didn't help with the Dow off 318 points, 39,526 and bonds gain 5 tics, 120.05.  Reports on the 28th and first intentions on Thursday helping to herd the last of the bulls out of the room.

After a dead Friday in the financials the Dow found footing Monday for a 261-point gain, 39,844 and bonds picked up 7 tics, 120 even.  Options expiration brought different reactions in the grain room.  Corn commitments had the funds reduce their short position, which caught me off guard but there is a divergence between the futures only and futures and options number which I would expect to be cleaned up next Friday.  After a break to 425 we recovered to 433 1/2, still of 1 1/2.  Wheat lost another 9 cents, 552 1/2.  Indias wheat and rice policies could change very soon if global wheat stays at these levels.  Strong meal with funds long 100K and adding help support soy, 1175 1/2, plus 14 3/4.  July rice up 31 1/2 to 1851 1/2 but July open interest down to 800 and no reason for most to be at that casino.  

End of a shortened trading week Friday had dead financials with the Dow up 8 points, 39,583 and bonds off a tic, 19.25.   Grains option expiration held beans pretty tight to the strike, 1160 1/2, plus 5 1/4 and wheat didn't want to work below the pin, so we closed off 11 1/4 cents, 561 1/2.  I don't like picking bottoms, but this has been quite an exaggerated break.  435 corn is off another 4 3/4.  Rice gets a 20 1/2 cent bounce in the front, 1820 but Sept still a bit weaker.  Commitments were delayed until Monday close with the holiday and could harbor a bit of an oversized fund short.

Thursday trade soft in the ag room and rejecting Tuesdays bounce.  Corn drops 10 1/4 to 439 3/4 and wheat follows for a 9 1/4 cent loss, 572 3/4.  Beans hit for 18 3/4 to 1155 1/4.  Rice drops 16 1/2 cents as well, 1799 1/2.  Friday trade will probably be dictated by July options expiration strikes with the most open interest acting like glue to the pins.  Dow op 288 points, 39,575 and bonds slip 20 tics, 119.26.

Tuesday trade mostly firm going into a midweek holiday with corn recovering Mondays loss, plus 6 1/4 to 450 in a typical Monday/Tuesday trade.  Beans get back 16 1/4 of the Monday drop, 1174 and rice also recovers most of the money, 1816, up 47 1/2.  The outlier is wheat with continued fund selling. 582, off 9 1/2.  Dow up 55 points, 39,287 and bonds up 28 tics, 120.14.

Surprised at the weakness Monday.  Drove a fair amount of miles in Indiana and Illinois.  The early planted corn was beautiful, but I was a bit surprised how much was planted late and how much some of those acres appear to be struggling.  I expect a 20 Bu. drop in yields in the late planted corn if this heat continues.  Is there enough early planted to offset that? Going to very hard to make 181 Bu average.  443 3/4 corn off 6 1/4.  Wheat down 21 1/4 to 591 1/2.  Thats the global barometer to me more than domestic, so when wheat catches a bid from this nasty break it should take the whole floor with it.  Beans down 22 cents, 1157 3/4.  I could see another 15 to the downside going into deliveries but can't see anything worse and if meal can continue $360 business, I just don't see any real reason to chase this break.  There is a lot of air above.  Rice casino hits red for a 50-cent break, 1768 1/2.  Someone did 150 bull Aug 3 ways and they haven't been around for a while so it's worth noting.  Moving to September for the financials, bonds off 28 tics, 119.18 and the Dow gets a nice bounce, 39,232, plus 223 points.

Friday soft risk off trade everywhere with 450 corn, off 8 1/2 cents the biggest surprise to me.  Wheat down 7 1/4 to 612 3/4 and beans drop 9 3/4 to 1179 3/4.  Rice gives back all Thursday gain, 1818 1/2, minus 36.  Dow had to rally nearly 300 from the lows to 38,605, still off 72 points and bonds gain 19 tics, 120.09.  I'm not seeing enough to make me think this will melt down from here.