Reports drop Monday and I would take most of the information with a dose of friendly, but not enough to bull up anyone. We did have a slight gain in soy stocks, but I expect us to move to a weather market as soon as we clear the 4th weekend. Holidays have a way of changing markets, and we have a lot of potential heat coming at us that most should talk about with the fireworks. Corn off 2 1/4 to 409 1/4, but spreads are tightening, and river basis is paying the difference between now and sept, so the guy buying your corn is paying the same price in September, you just aren't the one collecting it. Beans up a penny, 1018 1/4 and wheat slips 2 1/2 cents, 538 1/4. Spreads are tightening here as well, but funds are short Sept and will keep a thumb on it. Rice off 15 1/2 on a bullish report, but again, current stocks have to be sifted thru and the funds and commercial hopes to blow you out of any old crop left before this thing can breathe. Dow up 264 points, 44,389 and bonds quietly gain a full point, 115.15.
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The delivery clerks have finished pressing on retail July longs Friday, so we got a nice bounce in the grain room. Corn up 8 cents, erasing most of the last 3 days losses. 417 1/2. Strong oats and no corn deliveries tells us that maybe the funds have oversold and are at this point dependent on some kind of bearish report on Monday. Beans up a nickel, 1027 3/4 but heavy meal deliveries and not much of a sponsor for the 200 beans that did come out. light wheat deliveries and an oversold market gets us a 524 3/4 close, plus 3 3/4. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1310 1/2 on under 300 deliveries, and July futures about fully put to bed. I will be switching to sept futures in the grains starting Monday. Dow up another 407 points, 44,125 and bonds slip 15 tics, 114.15.
Exports Thursday nothing to write home about, but the funds and margin clerks have just pushed too far too quickly. Wheat testing the lower part of the range, 521, off 7 1/4. Corn only lost 3/4 cent even with the selling pressure, 409 1/2. Part of the pressure is that some are expecting a bump in acres on Monday's report. 1022 3/4 beans off 2 1/2. Rice bullied down to 1304 in the July, and I think September rice is a raging buy here. Dow up 412 points with an agreement out of China, 43,718 and bonds up 12 tics, 114.30.
Really soft Wednesday in the grain room with July deliveries just a few days away and funds having a heyday on the sell side. Beans down 21 1/2 cents, 1025 1/4. Getting back down to 1040 wasn't much of a surprise, but now they are hunting for who the delivery and margin clerks will force out. Corn off 6 to 410 1/4 and wheat down 7 1/2 to 528 1/4. This break makes for a big hole to the upside on any July weather. Rice off 30 cents, 1326 and no real surprise there, patience until intentions the rule. Dow held up pretty well given how overbought I fell we have gotten, 43,306, off 118 points and bonds slip 5 tics, 114.18.
As we march towards month end reports and deliveries first intentions on Friday, the grain markets are mostly fading softer on relatively benign weather and big crop reports out of Brazil. Corn off another 3 cents, 416 1/4, really holding the best of the big 3 with another flash sale to Mexico. Wheat hit for 17 cents, 535 3/3 and beans down 12 to 1046 3/4. Meal is still a dog, and oil has lost some of its luster for now. Rice recovers Monday break, 1356, plus 15 in yet another yo-yo trade. Fair amount of short liquidation taking place. Dow up 523 points, 43,424, and I would say getting overextended, while bonds pick up another 12 tics, 114.23.
Soft Monday in the grain room with wheat continuing its rollover from the recent rally, 553 3/4, minus 15. Beans off 9 1/4 to 1058 3/4 with bean oil fading on concerns the biofuel mandate may not stick and meal facing international pressure against any rally. Corn off 9 1/2 cents, 419 1/4 and a bit softer than I thought they could push it this time of year. Funds are short 185K contracts, so any weather scare moving into July would probably get the same kind of up spike that wheat recently saw. Rice off a dozen in a yoyo trade, 1341. If they want to push rice, they need to do it this week. Dow up 386 points, 42,901 as the hit on Iran was hugely successful, and bonds gained 18 tics, 114.11.
Friday trade a bit tentative with another weekend of military concerns. Beans off 6 3/4 to 1068 and wheat giving back 6 1/2 cents, 567 3/4. Corn slipped 4 3/4 to 428 3/4 and rice spread roll was the feature again, now July open interest is down to 3000 contracts, 1353, minus 3. Dow lower most of the day but recovers to 42,515, up 3 points and bonds close up 5 tics as well, 113.25.
Kind of a standard Monday/Tuesday trade as we await FED minutes Wednesday in the financials and the world is teetering on if or when the US gets involved with Iran. I personally don't see the need, but the posturing is putting Russia and China on notice that with Trump, nothing is off the table. Corn fell a further 3 1/4 cents, 431 1/2 and I'd guess that's short funds doing what they did last year. Wheat got a solid 12 1/2 cent bounce, 549 close and beans gained 4 1/4 to 1074. Rice recovers 11 to 1353 as well with another solid day of spread roll, meaning that the big fund short is willing to stay more short than I expect, but am happy to see. Set the trap. Dow gives back Monday, 42,556, off 308 points and bond gain a full point, 113.21.
Grain room was mostly softer Monday with corn hit for 9 3/4 cents, 434 3/4 and wheat off 7 1/4 to 536 1/2. Beans closed unchanged, 1069 3/4 on the back of limit up oil but weak meal. Rice off 35 points and the big short pushed the spread in at the expense of flat buying. Switching to Sept in the financials, the Dow gained 330 points back from Fridays sell off. Just an indicator of how much retail money is in indexes, rolling your long index position cost 325 points. Thats 1300 points a year the systems are stealing from joe average. Bonds off 19 tics, 112.21.
Interesting trade Friday with Iran feeling a little love tap from Israel against their nuke facilities and EPA bringing out favorable biofuel rules for bean oil. Dow off 783 points, 42,207 and bonds drop a point and 2 tics, 113.08. Neither of these moves get out of any ranges. Bean oil limit up Friday and beans gain 27 1/2 cents, 1069 3/4. Corn picks up 6 to 444 1/2 and wheat couldn't find any more sellers so had to look to the upside, 543 3/4, plus 17 1/4. Rice short continues the roll and cover routine, 1377, plus 3 1/2. Going to be a busy Monday.
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