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Tuesday brought us first notice for July futures plus stocks and acres. Corn story was in usage, a lot of it, when everyone was worried about acres. Acres a punt but July WASDE will have to account for the stocks drawdown. Also, July/Sept corn spread is screaming that we don't have some big excess, especially with what is reported in Illinois, which would be easy to deliver if there was no cash home. We are switching from July to Sept in Ag futures. July corn up 10 3/4 to 412 3/4 and sept plus 6 1/2 cents, 416 3/4. Wheat acres off again and we get July futures up 11 1/4 cents, 580 3/4, Sept up 9 1/2 to 598 1/4. Beans along for the ride, July up 8 to 1116 3/4 and Sept plus 4 3/4 cents, 1128 3/4. Rice acres off even more than I expected but stocks are up and the big buyer was quiet. July off 39 1/2 to 1282 and Sept down 42 as well, 1329. Dow couldn't get a bear story going and we floated back to 98 higher, 52,670 while bonds lost 21 tics, 113.16.
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Ugly trade Monday as we roll into month end, first intentions and prep for acres and stocks on Tuesday at 11. Beans hit for 17 1/2 cents, 1108 3/4. Still held above 11 bucks which I will take as a small win. Corn down 10 3/4 to 402 after briefly trading under the buck and wheat drops 8 3/4 to 569 1/2. This is typical trade going into first notice and along with hat one might expect, although not to the size of drop we got. Rice up another 11 1/2 cents, 1321 1/2 as the big new buyer added another 500+ new longs in his burgeoning position. A man with a big wallet is making a very big bet. Dow has an upward churn day, 52,572, plus 363 points and bonds still stalled out, 114.05, even on the day.
Friday trade mostly softer as we clean up positions with option expiration and then Monday is July first intentions for the grain room. Wheat hit the worst, 578 1/4, off 12 3/4 and getting to a lower area of my range. Corn off a couple cents, 412 3/4 and the July/Sept spread should be wider if there really were no interest in corn. Beans off 1 1/4 to 1126 1/4. Rice a winner again as someone is accumulating a pretty sizable, long position in the September futures before Tuesday's report. Dow just a common churn trade, 52,209, minus 130 points and bonds gain 2 tics, 114.05.
Grain room setting a base Thursday with wheat up 5 1/4 cents, 591 and corn up 7 3/4 to 414 3/4. Beans 18 3/4 to the good, 1127 1/2 and rice gains another nickel, 1297 1/2. Bonds were flat, 114.03 and the Dow gained 60 points, 52,339, but that was well of the +53K high that was put in early. Friday options expiration on tap.
Humpday trade reasonably decent in the financials with the Dow gaining 197 points, 52,279 and bonds up a full point and 9 tics. I'm especially happy to see bonds with a bid. As we approach July first notice the weak longs are being pushed out of their position by margin and delivery clerks. That pressure will be over by Mondays close. Wheat off a penny, 585 3/4 and corn 2 3/4 lower, 407. Beans off 8 1/4 to 1108 3/4. All on declining open interest, confirming the liquidation push. Rice up 295 contracts on a small 3 cent gain, 1292 1/2 close but shows a new buyer is now at the dance.
Tuesday trade had most players on their heels waiting on more info or just giving up in front of July deliveries. Wheat down 10 3/4 to 586 3/4 and that kept a lid on corn, 409 3/4, minus 1 3/4. Beans stable and 1117 close was good for a 1 3/4 cent gain. Rice short has given up the ghost and paid the price to get out these last few days, 1289 1/2, up 42 cents on the day and about a dollar in the last 3. Dow churn and 37 points lower close, 52,082 and bonds recover 4 tics, 112.26.
After a long weekend Monday trade was mostly softer as we had no real weather stories or anything else for fuel. Corn off 6 to 411 1/2 and wheat down 8 1/4 to 597 1/2. Beans minus 7 as well, 1115 3/4. Rice got a solid 27 cent bounce, 1247 1/2. Lots of rice moving around the countryside from weak hands to strong. Dow up 111 more points, 52,119 and bonds slip 22 tics, 112.22.
Last day of a short holiday week Thursday brought a little softness in the grains, with beans giving back 9 1/4 cents, 1122 3/4 on a very weak bean oil trade. I have no interest in pushing bean oil much below 69 cents and believe most of the Straight caused selloff is behind now. That's a dangerous knife to try to catch, sometimes it's better to let it hit the ground. Wheat off 7 to 605 3/4 and corn slips 3 1/2 to 417 1/2. Rice buyers rejecting what appeared to be spec selling, 1220 1/2, plus 27 1/2. Commitments are delayed until Monday close so we should have better confirmation then. Sept bonds up 11 tics, 113.12 and Sept Dow up 64 points, 52,008.
Nothing outside of expectations in exports Thursday morning and WASDE was pretty much a punt, so that gave the fund short room to press. Corn hit the worst, 411 3/4, minus 7 1/4. I'm a bit surprised that the funds are still hitting corn down here. Wheat off 3/4 cent, 586 3/4 and beans down 8 to 1115. Rice off a dozen as well, 1220 1/2. Dow got a positive news on the Strait pop, 50,875, plus 885 points and bonds gained a full point and 4 tics, 112.22. Money boys are acting like this agreement with Iran will stick.
Hump day trade mostly cleanup in front of Thursday WASDE. Attempt at recovery in corn falls short, 419, minus 1/2 cent after trying to work higher just got little support. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 587 1/2. Beans up 9 1/4 to 1123 with both meal and oil down near some pretty decent support, and crush is already stupid profitable. Basis telling me that the commercial has control of most old crop beans. Rice off 6 1/2 cents, 1232 1/2 and the story there is the short that kept us down finally got someone else to sell the big bid at $12.30, but there were no stops. Dow smacked down 919 points, 49,990 with the Strait seeing more action and bonds slipped 7 tics, 111.18.
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