Friday had corn a little soft, 552, off 4 1/4 going into a weekend of decent expected weather. That was in the face of wheat up 20 1/2 to 692 1/2. Rice pretty dead again, 1323, plus 1 1/2. Beans gained 11 3/4 to 1391 3/4 with oil solid. Dow rolled over by the end of the day and closed off 300 points, 34,564 and we don't like to see weak Friday Dow closes. Bonds stalled, 163.26, off 3 tics.
Exports in the morning Thursday brought a big nothing for corn and beans, and we for the most part chopped. A decent wheat number and wheat leads, 672, plus 17 3/4. Oats over 430, but corn just couldn't get a pop going, 556 1/4, off 2 1/2 in a catch your breath day. Beans off 3 1/4 to 1380 with meal unable to follow thru. Rice up 7 1/2 to 1321 1/2, again on lack of selling. Dow did a head fake lower but really just another churn day, 34,864, up 48 points, and bonds pop another point and 10 tics to 163.29. These bonds just don't make any sense, but we have a way of making them make sense, just sometimes its painful.
Wednesday was a good day to own anything. Corn pops 18 cents, 558 3/4. Oats up to 425. Corn Open interest down nearly 10K as new shorts got slapped. Wheat up 20 1/2 with heat up north and too much wet in France. 654 1/4. Rice 8 1/2 higher, 1314, again on lack of new selling. Beans pop 31 1/2 to 1383 1/4 with meal taking the lead, and new spec shorts getting hurt there as well. Dow in a quiet day but still up 40 points, 34,816, while bonds regain all of yesterday losses, 162.19, plus a point and 5 tics.
Tuesday corn had the best follow-thru buying, up another 7 3/4 to 540 3/4. Sept wheat backed up 7 to 633 3/4. Nov beans up 1 3/4 to 1351 3/4 as oil caught up with yesterdays move in the beans. Rice closes 1305 1/2 with a nice 16 cent bounce, really on a lack of sellers. The fund seller dipped his toe in rice first because of carry spreads, and is doing the same with Dec corn. I don't think as long as carry stays in the spreads they will be too easy to force out. I do think they could take some heat for their timing. Dow off 99 in a back and fill day, 34,776, while bonds leak a point and 2 tics, 161.14.
Monday WASDE numbers weren't anything to get worked up about, and the numbers came and went, then we went back to paper trading. Corn looked lower but couldn't find a bear sponsor, so up we go. Switching to Dec moving forward because that's where most of the action is. 533, plus 16 and a solid close. September rice up 3 to close 1289 1/2, and there are bids below even with a bearish report. I would note that medium is getting tighter, and I'd be slow to price any new crop medium. All the stocks gains were in Long Grain. September wheat up 25 3/4 to 640 3/4 with far the most friendly of the report numbers. November beans gained 21 to 1350 1/4 and really was strong throughout the day post report. Report isn't the issue, its condition. Dow up another 124 points, 34,875, as the street is accepting lower for longer interest rates and the probably misguided belief that the fed can keep all the pieces running smoothly. Bonds off 4 tics, 162.16.
Friday trade soft in corn as we are looking at a decent weekend for rains and no extreme temps in the corn growing belt. 529 1/2 Sept close, off 7 1/4. Wheat down 3 in sympathy, 615. Rice had a dime bounce to 1286 1/2 and it sure appears that someone out there is willing to own this market below 80. It will be interesting to see how the players react to what I suspect will be a soft WASDE rice report Monday. Beans up 14 to 1379 1/4, nearly back to Thursdays highs and oil is back to leading. Dow erases all of Thursday losses and more, 34,751, plus 457, while the bonds finally set back, 162.20, off a point and 10 tics. WASDE Monday at 11.
Dow was ugly most of the day with firm bonds and that put some pressure on most everything. Corn tried to look higher bur dropped 6 to 536 3/4. Wheat off 4 1/4 cents, 618. Rice bear pushed and got us 12 1/2 lower, again into what I would consider cash based buying, 1276 1/2. Beans of 1 1/2 to 1365 1/4, but that was down from a 1383 high. Bonds closed up 21 tics, 163.30, and the Dow needed a solid bounce to still be off 274 points, 34,294. On the lows in the Dow I was beginning to wonder if the churn machine was going to reset to a lower price-point, but the late pull back negated some of that fear.
Wednesday trade strong in beans as we bounce 22 1/2 cents to 1366 3/4. We were 40 higher at one time as we reset what was an overblown break to start the week. Rice bear had no bullets so we close 1289, plus 7. Don't see the buyer chasing, but the seller seems to have hit the wall in rice. Corn more than a dime off lows, 542 3/4, still off 9 1/4 on decent forecast pressure. Wheat down 3 3/4 to 622 1/4. Dow had a tight range and 108 point rally, 34,568, and bonds up another point and 6 tics. 163.09. Wow. Clearly something in the financials is out there I don't see.
Long holiday weekend brought some much needed rain and more in the forecast, some bear selling systems got activated, and down we went. Switching to September moving forward for grains, corn down 40 cents, limit, to 552. Sept wheat only off 26 3/4 to 626, and oats fared better still. Corn open interest up, which makes clear that new money selling is in play. Sept rice down 32 1/2 to 1282, but 300 futures bought piecemeal down here by what looks to be longer term strong hands. Exports maybe? August beans down 89 cents, 1344 1/4, and meal and oil both weak, although I expect it will be much harder to push the products lower from here. Dow off 217 in a 500 point range, 34,460, and bonds gain another point and 6 tics to 162.03. Bonds have my big picture radar way up by now.
July corn took a bit of a hit Friday, off 22 1/2 to 697 1/4 with some possibility that a commercial short may be forced to deliver a few receipts to clean up open interest, China saying they will need less corn than expected next year, and a court ruling that might very well put the hurt on E 15, which is a bigger long term deal to me. Fact is, decreased E 15 could easily change my domestic corn demand for next year by several hundred million Bu. That would have an effect on future DDGs supply as well. Time will tell if the green agenda is going to keep the bio-fuel advancements we have, or move on to Carbon credits, a moving target as far as quantification goes, to make themselves self important. Dec corn only off 9 and oats are a penny better. Wheat got hit for 12 3/4 Friday with a break in the heat and some rain in the forecast for the northern plains, 645 3/4. Rice off 31 1/2 to end the week 1284, with July almost totally in the books, cash pretty quiet, and everyone in the markets moving on to Sept. We will be as well Tuesday morning. Front beans up a nickel, 1451 3/4, with some questioning on farm stocks numbers, and new crop hovering around $14. Dow up 163 in a pretty tight range, 34,677, and bonds picking up another 23 tics, 160.29. This is in the higher end of my range of Bond objectives given expected inflation in the future and this product pricing up to 30 years of future rates, but we have built in mandatory buyers, and there is always flight to quality when certain people are much more concerned with return of capital vs, return on capital. Time will tell.
|
Archives
April 2024
|
Services |
Company |
|