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Nothing big in exports to fuel Thursday trade but there are corn sales ongoing as we are globally competitive. We got another 2 1/4 cent bounce, 394. Wheat dead, 523 1/4 after a 516 test, minus 1/2. Beans off 6 1/4 to 969 1/2 on first intentions pressure for August. Rice bear pushing yet again, 1228, off 7 1/2. These are just miserable grain markets, exaggerated by fund money. Dow off 328 points, 44,305 and bonds pick up 10 tics, 114.06.
A little more pressure in the grain room Tuesday with Argy cutting export taxes and the heat dome fading, not to mention a fair amount of rain in the corn growing regions. Corn off 4 1/2 more, 389 1/4, but I suspect these prices are attracting more export sales, which would make any late weather hiccups more pronounced. Beans off 3 cents, 989 1/2 as we lead into First intentions for the august markets and carry trade still in play. That will be rectified by Thursday close. Wheat down 8 3/4 to 529 3/4 and we seem to always want to test the 525-530 area on these pushes lower. Rice off 8 1/2 to 1238 1/2 and a bit of a surprise that Sept open interest went up. The late players would probably still be selling front month, but the Calander ends that dance by the end of the week, and I expect them to be stuck on the dance floor when the lights come on. Dow pulls back 196 points, 44,816 and bonds pop a point and 12 tics, 114.17. I'm afraid that Trump has pushed Powell so hard he has to delay a rate drop to show he is independent, even though by most measures we need to be cutting rates. I don't think a full point of cuts would materially increase borrowing, but it would save the government, and by extension us taxpayers a TRILLION dollars a year.
Monday softer in the grain room with crop projections starting to drop and I've seen a corn yield guess as high as 190. Corn off 5 3/4 cents, 393 3/4 and the best we can hope for without some kind of trade agreement and soon, is a Monday/Tuesday bounce. Beans off 9 1/2 to 992 1/2 and wheat manages to hold, 538 1/2, plus 1/4. Rice off 14 1/2 to 1247 and the bear put forth some expected effort to defend the short. Sept spread roll just around the corner. Dow in a normal churn, 45,072, minus 72 points and bonds slip 14 tics, 113.05.
Corn off 2 1/4 Friday, 399 1/2 and the crop seems to be getting bigger. Beans slip 3 3/4 to 1002 and wheat off 3 1/4 to 538 1/4. Rice short cover still in play as we approach the big shorts roll problem and some new buying in Nov. 1261 1/2, plus 7. In the grains I worry about the clock and pretty good growing weather forcing some farmer selling and in rice, the short will need to reestablish his push this week early or he will be forced to roll and lift at the same time. Dow up 185 points, 45,084 and bonds gain 10 tics, 113.19.
Corn back over the buck Thursday with a few export flashes. One attributed to China was later changed to South Korea, the other, unknown. 401 3/4, plus 3 1/4. Wheat up a penny, 541 1/2 and beans up 3/4 to 1005 3/4. Rice up a penny as well, 1254 1/2. Just an all-around uninteresting day in the grain room. Bonds off 2 tics, 113.09 and the Dow gives back 315 points of the big Wednesday trade, 44,899.
Humpday trade started firm but faded with corn closing off 3/4 cent, 398 1/2. Not as bad as it looks on the surface to me as we gained again in open interest and they aren't big winners. Corn spread is very wide, so roll has the capacity to be interesting. Beans off 3 cents, 1005 and wheat gives back the most, 540 1/2, minus 9. Rice sell program halted and that turned on a buy system, for how long I don't know, but we got a 15 1/2 cent bounce, 1253 1/2. Dow up 503 points providing some lose money, 45,214 and bonds slip 20 tics, 113.11.
Corn leaked below the buck Tuesday, 399 1/4, minus 4 1/2 and beans gave up 2 1/2 as well, 1008. Corn got a jump in open interest and I'm worried that the funds are setting up another 20 cent or so push down there. Wheat got a 7 1/4 cent bounce, 549 1/2 and after testing new lows early, rice recovered 6 cents of a big, long break. 1238. I'd really, really like to see wheat get a bid going to give me confidence that we have a grain room upside, and sadly, not getting that yet. Dow up 164 points, 44,711 and bonds up another 17 tics, 113.31.
Heat dome projection not quite as long lasting as some had feared on Friday, so Monday grain room has a weaker tone, with corn off 4 3/4 cents, 403 3/4 and wheat off 4 to 542 1/4. Rice battling the lows, 1232, minus 4 1/2 and the funds just don't want to let that market breathe. Beans down 10 1/2 to 1010 1/2. Dow wanted to push the upside, but I think we need a setback, 44,547, up 7 points and bonds gain a full point, 113.14, showing safety has some attraction.
Weekend weather concerns driving a bid in the grain room Friday with corn plus 6 1/2 cents, 408 1/2, wheat up 6 1/4 to 546 1/4 and beans getting some support from meal for the first time in a long time, 1027 3/3, up 12 3/4. Funds still laying on the rice, 1236 1/2, minus 15 1/2. Whether you are involved in rice or not, you need to be respectful of what these funds can do to a crop once they decide there is enough inventory not priced by the farmer. Dow off 178 points, 44,540 and bonds up 10 tics, 112.14.
Thursday morning brought nothing out of the ordinary in exports and a drifting market on big yields, but heat is coming to the plains and some of the corn pics aren't as rosy as one would hope. Corn off 3 1/4 to 402, still holding the buck and wheat off 7 3/4 to 533 1/2. Rice bear still at it, adding almost 400 to the open interest with more downward pressure, 1252, minus 14. Beans fought the floor, 1012, plus 6 1/4 and August heat can still have a lot to say in bean yields. Dow up another 259 points, 44,718 and bonds off 1 tic in a dull day, 112.04.
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