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Wheat searching for a sponsor Friday and down 24 1/4 late, 639 1/4. Corn off a nickel, 440 3/4 and beans hold in, 1170 3/4, off 1 1/2. Rice pops another 19 1/2 as the short seller from midweek gets spanked. 1396. Bonds off a point and 3 tics, 108.10, a terrible close to me and the Dow gets an upward churn trade, 52,635, plus 255.
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Thursday brought weather bears but some decent export numbers and another China soy flash. Bears barely won out in corn, 445 3/4, minus 3 1/4 and soy, 1172 1/4, off 3 3/4 but try as hard as they could, wheat held for a 2 3/4 gain, 663 1/2 and rice up 25 1/2 cents, 1376 1/2. Dow popped 615 points, 52,380 and bonds hit for 28 tics on Fed fears, 109.13.
Shakey hump day financials with bonds off 16 tics on a no change to rates day and the Dow beat down 1179 points, 51,765. Any chance at a grain recovery faded early and wheat held the best, 660 3/4, minus 1 3/4. Rice off 15 to 1351 and we found a fair amount of buying below 1350, corn down 9 1/2 to 449 and beans hit for 28 1/2 cents, 1176. If exports or the weather doesn't give us a boost tomorrow, this show might be over for a few weeks at least.
A bit of Monday/Tuesday trade in the grain room as we try to recover from the Monday beatdown. Corn up 6 3/4 to 458 1/2 while beans get back a nickel, 1204 3/4. Wheat mustered 2 1/2 cents gain, 662 1/2 and rice got back a penny and 1/2, 1366. Grains had 2 things in common. All were priced a little higher and none of them gained open interest. Take the good with the bad, I guess. Dow worked higher thru the day, 52,994, plus 562 points at the end and bonds up another 16 tics, 110.25.
Ugly day in the grain room Monday as a little less heat and a little more rain makes for a lot less buying interest. Beans whacked for 40 1/2 cents, 11.99 3/4. Wheat down 18 to 660 and corn off 12 1/2 to 451 3/4. Rice hit for 33 as well, 1364 1/2. Tuesday action expected to be a stabilizing day, and let's hope. China is still buying soy, the rice crop total acres are still small, and it's probably safe to say we have taken the top off of wheat and corn production. Dow up 258 points in standard churn trade, 52,382 and bonds recover 18 tics, 110.09.
Friday grain trade started shaky but held in better than what could have been. Wheat posted new highs over 7 bucks, dropped to 659 and recovered to 678, off 18 1/4. That's a bit of volatility. Corn off early but got back to basically flat, 464 1/4, plus 1/4. Beans holding best and the funds are long the complex to defend, 1240 1/4, up 9 1/4. As long as China and US play nice, there is a decent floor. Rice set back 15 1/2 to 1397 1/2 as we look to clear remaining old crop cash at steep discounts to the board. Not nearly as much to clear this year, but the commercial will still try to play it as long as he can. Of note, every grain lost open interest Friday. Every grain in commitments showed a net increase in long position, or a shrinking of the short in wheat, but most of the gain was really just shorts leaving the dance floor, not new players on the bull side. End of July seasonal softness has to be front and center on the big players minds. That is not a bull market sign. Dow gained 230 points in a rebound churn, 52,124 and bonds get back 8 tics, 109.23.
Markets all struggled Thursday with wheat putting a new contract high but closing lower on the day, 696 1/4, minus 9 1/2. Rice seemed to roll over as well, 1413, off 17 1/2. Corn held for a 2-cent gain, 464 and beans closed up a nickel, 1231. Decent gains in open interest in each of the grains so the computers know we have some fresh long money in the game. Dow hit for 555 points, 51,894 and bonds off 18 tics, 109.15.
Accelerated buying in Wheat leads the grain room higher on Humpday. 705 3/4 close, plus 27. Corn up 9 1/4 in tow, 462 while beans gain 15 1/2 to 1226. Rice up 9 1/2 cents, 1430 1/22. Wheat beans and rice all new life of contract highs. Farmer really ought to be looking at where we can lock some profits on at least part of the crop. Dow churn up and down, 52,449 close, plus 6 for all the trouble. The exchanges and computers wish a thank you to retail again. Bonds off 11 tics, 110.01.
Tuesday trade trying to hold a weather rally. Corn gains 3 1/4 to 452 3/4 and wheat closes 678 for a 4-cent gain. Rice pops 21 to 1421. Beans slip a nickel, 1210 1/2, and Dec oats back under 350. I just don't get why options vol is so soft and open interest isn't gaining more. I want this weather rally to run, but I don't trust it very much. Dow in an up-day churn, 52,443, plus 370 points and bonds leak 8 tics, 110.12.
Weather and China purchases help fuel a Monday bean rally, 1215 1/2, plus 22 cents on the day. Corn up 4 3/4 to 449 1/2. This is pretty much a tipping point to me where we need some new fund longs and more hot and dry talk to keep the story going, at least for now. Wheat tired from its own rally, 674, minus 8 3/4 and rice seems stalled here at 14 bucks even, off a penny. All the grains have had a decent run from their various lows, but it seems like we need some new fuel here pretty soon or harvest pressure will set in. Dow off 302 points, 52,073 and bonds down 25 tics, 110.20. These bonds can make a guy lose sleep at night.
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