Friday was a catch your breath trade, with corn off 3/4 cent, 324 1/2, and beans gaining 3/4 to 897. August beans over $9. The bean program is real and continuing. Corn weather losses are up in the air, and it is reasonable to expect a solid hit to crop conditions. No reason to sell in front of at least that. Rice seller noticeably absent again and the market up 13 1/2 to 1189. Wheat back to $5, plus 3 1/4. Dow off 31 in a churn trade and bonds up a tic, 177.27.
As satellite images project 8 million or more Iowa acres affected by the recent weather system and the numbers of storage facilities, both commercial and private pile up, the fund corn shorts are running for the door. Another day of over 30 K liquidation drives futures up 10 3/4 to 325 1/4. Beans gain 15 3/4 cents, 896 1/4. Export numbers nothing to sneeze about. Meal finally gets a bid and pops $8. Wheat closes 496 3/4, plus 5 1/2. Rice quiet except for the spread roll, 1175 1/2, off 2 1/2. Rice needs some new exports and it needs it soon. Fortunately, Thai and Viet prices are solid in the $480-$490 area. Dow backs up 43 in a relatively quiet day, 27,823, while the bonds drop another 31 tics, 177.26. I'd say bonds are getting overdone to the down side, or else we are about to have a major dollar shakeup, and I don't see that coming.
Wednesday trade dominated by the recent weather event, not WASDE. WASDE did print in line corn to my numbers and bearish beans, but the market had already priced those numbers in. Rice was a friendly number but I believe there is an error in Texas production of some magnitude. Corn up 3 to 314 1/2. Beans gain a dime, 880 1/2, and rice up a dime as well, 1178. Wheat has returned to the dog the contract is designed to be, 491 1/4, off 3 3/4. Dow stronger again, 27,866, plus 252. Bonds slip 11 to 178.25 and I think this bond break has mostly run its course.
Tuesday trade is just squaring up for WASDE on Wednesday. Corn market got a pop from the weather that ripped across Iowa and Illinois, but by the end of the day we were only a penny higher, 311 1/2. And that is with a solid chunk of fund shorts covering , over 30K worth. Beans did nothing and closed 1/2 higher, 870 1/2. Wheat recovers 4 cents of yesterdays loss, 495. Rice was dead other than spreads, 1168. off 3. Dow closed more than 400 off highs and 65 lower on the day, creating a possible reversal, or a trap, 27,614. Bonds off 2 points and 5 tics to 179.04.
Nice bounce Monday in corn to start the week, 310 1/2, plus 2 3/4. Nothing new or bullish, but a bit oversold. Beans close 870 for a 4 1/4 cent gain as meal finally finds a bid. Rice up 18 1/2 to 1171 with the noted seller of late noticeably absent. Looks like its going to take something nearer to 5.40-5.50 a Bu. to get more selling. I do think there is plenty of selling on tap though. Wheat played the ugly sibling as it is want to do, 491, off 4 1/2. Dow bidders keep coming, 27,679, plus 346, while the bonds slip 10 tics, 181.09.
Computers wanted to make sure Friday corn close was a low, and we clearly had longs puking out of positions, so a 3 1/2 lower close was the result, 307 3/4. Every single participant that will speak has bearish opinions about how low corn will go, but almost universal bearishness abounds. I will remind you that the herd is almost always wrong, and we built those bins to ride out these swings. Beans getting long liquidation as well, 865 3/4, minus 9. Wheat below $5 to close 495 1/2, off 5 3/4. Rice did hold and bounced 4 1/2 cents, 1152 1/2. My big concern with rice short term in Arkansas is going to be high freight rates this fall with all the beans and corn that will have to ship. For some reason, rice trade hates higher freight. Dow looks lower Friday but rallies 48 higher, 27,333 close, while bonds drop 21 tics, 181.19.
More solid china numbers in export sales released Thursday morning aren't enough to get anything bullish going. Corn up 1/4 to 311 1/4. Beans 1 1/4 lower, 874 3/4. Wheat has clearly shifted from the funds favorite grain to churn back to their favorite grain to sell. 501 1/4, minus 9 1/2.. Rice off 20 as well, 1148. All around ugly run here in the grains. Dow continues its upward climb, 27,285, plus 230, while the bonds gain 5 tics, 182.08.
Corn market rolled over Tuesday on bearish production expectations out of FC Stone, 308 1/4, minus 9 1/4. Beans had the same fate, 879 3/4, off 13 1/4. Wheat down 12 3/4 as well, 508 1/4. Rice held up the best only dropping 2 cents, 1157. I have to believe lower prices will translate into more export sales, but the funds are willing to add to corn shorts and the commercial sees no reason to stand in the way. Dow up 159 points to 26,717, and bonds gain a point and 6 tics at the same time, 182.25.
Nothing moving about Monday trade, with firm corn, 1 1/2 higher, 317 1/2, and beans as well, 893, plus 2 3/4. Meal was soft. Rice off 1/2 in a nothing day, 1159. Wheat took a 10 1/4 cent hit to 521, but don't know if that's better Russia numbers or just the systems running another leg of the churn. Dow gains 239 to 26,558 and bonds off 22 tics, 181.19. Usual back in forth in the financials, nothing more.
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