Oats get $5 printed on Monday, but nothing else seemed to want to run after the weekend. Corn off 4 1/4 to 568 3/4. Wheat slips 1 3/4 to 760 1/2. Beans got a small 3 1/4 cent pop on stronger meal, 1368 1/4. So far this year, trusting a meal led market in beans has not paid well. Rice up a couple to 1355 but the real feature in rice is spread roll. Dow up 114 to close 35,534, but pushed up nearly 400 from the lows to get there. Bonds didn't drink the cool aid, 165.04, plus 23.
Oats up 25 on Friday had to grab a little attention, but will that run stick, or was it just a bull/bully taking advantage of a small window of opportunity to press a thin market? My guess is there will be new bullets in the chamber come Monday morning. Corn settled off 1/4 cent, 573, with no follow-thru after the explosive Thursday numbers on yield. I would note that corn Open Interest dropped 10,000 on the day, reminding us that we are probably playing a greater fools theory game here. Wheat did pick up 8 3/4 to 762 1/4 in Sept, and Dec is bumping my expected price model valuation, so I would expect something new is necessary to keep this bull running. Logistics will keep regional basis way more violent in wheat than most years, but the board has a path for 2 different types of wheat to fill the same hole for the commercial seller, not to mention grades that the food boys cant or wont work with. Just ask Kraft/Mondelez. Global edible oils strong, including bean oil, and beans rallied 24 to 1365. That rally also had a nearly 11K bump in OI to accomplish the bounce. Dow painted a new high and backed off nearly 100 to close 35,420, up 18 in a feeble attempt to look good, but bonds gained a point and a half on the day, 164.13, and that had to make the bulls less interested in going home long equities over the weekend. One or the other should flinch Monday or Tuesday next week. Will be fun to watch who has the weaker hand.
Rumors of bean sales and corn inquiries Wednesday morning out of china, but Market I think is more nervous about Thursday WASDE report. Corn did gain 6 to 559 1/4, while wheat was stuck at unchanged. Beans picked up 3 1/4 to 1340 with oil taking the lead again. Rice off 5 1/2 with someone comfortable selling, 1343. Dow continues its new highs rally, 35,372, up 217 while bonds chop up and down but end off 6 tics, 163.01
Global wheat prices firm Tuesday and we are finally catching a bid, 727, plus 15 3/4. I think wheat should be a 780 item and its not, and that is part of why my bear radar is so high. Corn still slips 1/2 to 553 1/4. Oil catching a bid and beans finish 7 higher, 1336 3/4. Rice short looks to be coming out as we are up another 9 1/2 to 1348 1/2. Dow pops to new highs, 35,155, gaining 157, while bonds leak 15 tics, 163.07.
Monday trade like watching paint dry as we had some friendly info but no real action. Wheat never could get anything going, 711 1/4, off 7 3/4, and corn off 2 3/4 as well, 553 3/4. Oil a dog so beans down 7 to 1329 3/4. Rice got a small bounce to 1339, plus 7 but a quiet seller operated all day. Dow had a simple back and fill day, 34,998, minus 93, while bonds gave up 16 more tics, 163.22. All for all, a write off day waiting for harvest or china.
Friday had a little bounce in wheat, 719, plus 6 1/4, and that helped corn get to 3 1/2 higher, 556 1/2. Corn lost 21,000 in Open interest thru the day as more players leave. Beans actually gained a small amount in OI as we close 1336 3/4, up 8 1/4. Rice up 3 1/2 to 1332 with another 105 vs cash getting the old receipts used up. Dow up 148 points, 35,091, and bonds lose a point and a half to 164.06. Real story for Monday is weather and China.
Nothing unexpected in exports Thursday morning, and corn got a little bounce thru the day, 553, plus 6 1/4. Wheat leaked 4 1/2 to 712 3/4. Meal firm again and beans pick up 2 3/4 to 1328 1/2. Sure would like to see beans try to look up 1350 again. Rice up 9 as bear does not defend and seems like a new buyer surfaced, 1328 1/2. Dow pops for 253 as the upside churn resumes, 34,943, and bonds leak 16 tics, 165.22.
Softer wheat again Wednesday after a few shots to the upside failed, 717 1/4, off 7 1/4. Not the action you want to see out of the most bullish grain. Corn peeked higher but wound up off a nickel as well, 546 3/4. Meal up $4 as 350 a ton prices decent feed demand for now, and beans up 6 cents, 1325 3/4. Corn and beans open interest both down again today as more players leave the sandbox. Rice bear back again and selling to any buyers. 1319 1/2 close, off 20 1/2. A note, 220 buyers showed up between 1320- 1315 for some volume on the lows in a tight nickel. More receipts cancelled, this time out of McGehee so its a safe bet that more domestic supply for later is going down the river now. Dow off 308 to take away all Tuesday rally, 34,690. Bonds up 6 tics, 166.06.
Tuesday trade soft in the Ag room with beans and products leading the way down. Beans tested the 1309 support and held, bouncing to 1319 3/4 for the close. Off 33 3/4 on the day. Dec meal back down to 350 and that seems to make sense as a feed cost. Won't look good if those numbers don't hold thru the rest of the week. Wheat tried higher but faded to 724 1/2, off a nickel. corn off 7 1/2 to 551 3/4. Rice closes 1340, down 9 1/2 as the bear keeps up the pressure. Cash buyers are starting to step in I believe. Dow popped 277 to 34,998 and bonds were flat at 166 even.
New month of trading action started Monday with global wheat stories and wheat leading the Ag floor25 3/4 higher, 729 1/2. That strength kept corn in tow as we adjust feed rations from last years excess wheat stocks back to more corn usage and corn gained back yesterdays 11 cent break and more, 559 1/4, plus 14. Beans struggled to stay positive, as bean oil was weaker and weaker spreads in oil as well, but meal held the lows and gained 5 bucks, back to feed needs. Beans closed out 4 1/4 higher, 1353 1/2. Rice bear pushed and we dropped 18 1/2 to 1349 1/2 and looking to see what support $6 might bring. Dow off another 111 to 34,721, but still just churn noise although bonds popped another point and 9 tics to 166 even.
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