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End of month trade Friday and delivery pressure pretty much done as September futures wind down. Sept corn got a 12 1/2 cent bounce, 398 close, on more issues in the fields and very few still believing a 188 crop is out there. It's a big one, but probably not 188 big. Keep in mind they puffed some of the corn demand on the last WASDE as well, so we could see a decline in production and demand offset. 518 wheat was 7 3/4 better and beans gained 8 1/2 to 1036 3/4. A fair amount of air above the rice market allowed a nice 27 cent bounce, 1179. Starting Monday, we will move the December in corn and wheat, November for rice and beans. Dow quietly off 105 points, 45,601 and bonds fade 17 tics, 114.21.
Thursday exports good in wheat and corn, I'd like more out of beans and rice. Clean up trade for Sept deliveries wet pretty smoothly with a small bid to the markets. Corn picked up 3 cents, 385 1/2 and wheat looked briefly below the buck but rallied to 510 1/4, 8 better on the day. Beans up a penny, 1028 1/4. I'd be surprised if the meal short is as big by the time Dec. roll comes around after the cost to roll this cycle. Rice off 1/2 to 1152 as the big fund Sept position got rolled pretty easy. Dow up 64 points in quiet trade and bonds gain 18 tics, 115.06.
Humpday a drag in the grain room with wheat leading the way, 502 1/4, off 7 1/4. corn down a nickel, 382 1/2 while beans only slipped 1 1/4 to 1027 1/2. Rice buy program shut off and took away the last 2 days gains, 1152 1/2, minus 34. Dow in a quiet upside churn, 45,642, up 153 points and bonds just stalled, 114.20, plus 1.
Just a leadup day Tuesday to Sept deliveries, with corn off 1 3/4 cents, 387 1/2 but wheat getting a 2 3/4 cent bounce, 509 1/2. Beans up 3 1/4 to 1028 3/4 and rice buy program flushed some close trailing stops, 1186 1/2, plus 19 1/2. Dow recovered 138 points, 45,489, but still just a churn trade, and bonds slip 4 more tics, 114.19. Not a lot to cover.
Hit or miss day Monday. Markets have digested Powell comments, and the Dow set back 364 points from Fridays pop, but really just back and fill churn trade, 45,351. Bonds leaked 4 tics, 114.23. Beans off 11 cents, 1025 1/2 on a lack of new buying and this week will get Sept liquidation pressure. Corn managed a penny gain, 389 1/4 and wheat picked up a couple cents, 506 3/4. Rice computer buy program got turned on to hunt stops and with the air created by this recent break we got a 14 1/2 cent rally, 1167. Hard for me to get too excited about any of the grains this week.
Powell opened the doors to the coming rate cuts and the Dow responded with an 861-point rally Friday, 45,715 and the first 1000-point range day in a while. Bonds up 25 tics as well, 114.27. Options expiration in the grain room but nothing really to pin, and corn picks up a penny, 388 1/4 while wheat slips 2 1/4 to 504 3/4. Beans hold Thursday rally and add 2 more to the total, 1036 1/2. Rice bear has figured out he can roll and push down at the same time, 1152 1/2, minus 21 more. Don't be in a hurry to catch the knife. Sept. Rice down to 2775 left for next week. With big carries in all the grains, the margin clerks will hound the longs in September, to the benefit of the short player. I would have you look at meal spreads to watch the commercial force the computer boys to reevaluate their oversized shorts in meal. Yes, you can push the futures down, but not so fast on the meal spread roll. Thats a pretty expensive tax to pay, and they just got that education. I sure wish we had commercials that wanted firm prices in the rest of the grains.
Decent but nothing explosive in exports Thursday morning but EPA about to announce bio rules and exemptions has a bid in soy oil, and beans pop 19 1/2 cents, 1034 1/2. Corn good for 7 1/4 to 387 1/4. Wheat only up 1 1/2 cents, 507. Rice bear at it again and cash with no home is spooking the whole industry. No reason to calm the masses if you are a buyer, so patience. 1173 1/2, minus 32. I'm not going to call a floor for at least a week without some outside announcement of scale. Dow off 141 points in a standard churn day, 44,854 and bonds leak 11 tics, 114.02.
Bland churn day in the financials, bonds up 2 tics, 114.13 and the Dow closes off 4 points in dull trade, 44,995. Wheat set a new low and bounced 11 cents, 505 1/2 for a 7 cent better close after failure to gain new sellers below the buck. Corn 380 close is 1/2 better. Beans picked up a couple in the sept as the meal roll is still squeezing the funds in the front, 1015. Roll should be about over. Rice the feature with a dead air drop to 1177 and even with the bounce back to 1205 1/2 close, still off 45 1/2. More a lack of buyers than hard selling, and the combines are rolling.
Softer day Tuesday across the ag floor with wheat hitting new lows and closing below the buck, 498 1/2. Now let's see if the funds want to push from here or just wanted the print. Corn off 3 1/2 to 379 1/2 and beans gave up 7 3/4 to 1013. The meal oil unwind is getting close to running its course by my count. Rice off 7 1/2 cents, 1251 on 1500 more sept trades, but surprised that only 650 was liquidation, and we found a small buyer under 1250. It's hard to be long any grain with carry in the spreads the last 2 weeks going into deliveries, and this trade is no exception. Everything wants to leak because the margin clerk and the delivery clerk want you out of your longs before first notice. This is not the time to reinvent the wheel on position management. Dow in another churn, wanted badly to finish stronger, and barely managed, 44,999, plus 13 points, while bonds recovered 18 tics, 114.11.
New week starts with stability after the Russia/USA summit in Alaska, but grains need some fuel. Corn off 3/4 cent, 383 and wheat down 3 3/4 to 502 3/4, giving back the small Friday bounce. Beans off 1 1/2 cents, 1020 3/4 and rice down 11 1/2 to 1258 1/2 as the fund roll 1400 shorts easily and open interest grows. Without some kind of trade deal of substance or a major weather event, I feel sorry for anyone growing anything they can't store to make it past the harvest hump. Dow in a tight churn trade, 44,986, minus 54 points and bonds slip 7 tics, 113.25.
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