Funds came to the dance Wednesday morning with guns blazing. Beans solid all day and close up 19 3/4 cents, 1011 1/4. Corn follows suit for 5 3/4 cents, 371 3/4. Even wheat managed a 3 3/4 gain, 542. Rice was dead and closed up a penny, 1216. Dow put on another 400 point churn day and closed only 29 higher, 27,937. Bonds off 9 tics, 176.07.
Nothing really exciting in Tuesday news to feed the bull, so corn slips 3 1/2 to 366 and beans wind up 8 lower, 991 1/2. Wheat falls 7 1/2 to 538 1/4 and the European market seems like this price is high enough. Rice does close 8 higher on a firm cash market as the millers try to cover unannounced sales, 1215. Dow churns yet again but closes only 37 higher, 27,908, and bond slip 6 tics in another snoozer day, 176.16.
Monday trade had the Dow placing confidence across the floor, switching to Dec futures moving forward, 27,871, plus 378. Bonds a non event up 3 tics, 176.22. Corn followed thru for a penny gain to 369 1/2, while beans added 3 1/2 to 999 1/2 after the look above $10 didn't really bring much volume. Bull is full and looking for Chinese help. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 545 3/4 but tired to me, and rice off 4 cents, 1207.
Strong Export sales opened Friday with a solid floor in corn and beans, the WASDE report really gave the bulls nothing to build on, but they bought anyway. Market disagrees with the governments expectations for yields and exports, and showed it in a big way as the funds painted the weekly close. Corn up 3 1/2 to 368 1/2. Meal rocks for $7 and beans up 18 1/2 to 996, pushing against $10. Nothing in the WASDE or global numbers justify buying from this point in price and time. Commitments of traders has the funds long 174K of beans before the report buying, long a slug of oil and 32K of meal, and 34K of corn as well. Those protein bulls have gotten so large they will need fed every day this week. Wheat weaker by 6 1/4 cents, 542, and rice bearish report helps push long grain down 36 1/2 to 1211 1/2. Cash is currently bid stronger than futures, so it will be interesting to see if the rice bull appears to defend Monday. Dow churned near 400 points on Friday but closed a relatively calm 67 higher, 27,612. Bonds up 11 tics, 176.19.
Corn strong all Thursday and closes 4 3/4 higher, 365. Open interest up 18K as funds are getting long. Wheat 4 1/2 higher as well, but it was 12 higher and faded. 550 1/4. Beans needed more fuel and just stalled, 977 1/2, off 1 1/4. Rice bull at it again, 1248. plus 4 and fishing for sellers. Really interesting trade to watch. Dow rolls over to 27,545, down 427, while the bonds recover 17 tics, 176.08.
Dow finally caught a bid Wednesday morning as financials stabilized, and rallied, 27,972, plus 447. Bonds gave back 18 tics to close 175.23. Beans also had bids, following a strong meal trade higher, 978 3/4, up 5 3/4. Corn barely stayed above 360 with a 360 1/4 close, off 1 1/2. Wheat off 1/2 cent, 543 3/4. With beans so far overbought by the funds, and corn appearing to hit a wall here, I would again encourage getting something on the books before Friday. We have a delayed export sales report to start Friday morning, followed by WASDE at 11 and world numbers just after that. Lots of ways to get a curve ball, and then a whole weekend of combines in the field. As I am inclined to say, if this is your worst sale of the year, we had a pretty good year. Rice buyer seems to be tempting sellers to put up numbers big enough for him to hit. 1244, off 1 1/2 but he chased 1250 again today. It will be interesting to see if he tries to milk it again tomorrow.
Weekend weather brought rain and cold, and Tuesday trade had a bid with more exports booked. Corn up 3 3/4 to 361 3/4. It will be interesting to see if the money boys are willing to keep corn above 360. Beans up a nickel, 973. Pretty solid pricing for this time of year. Wheat slips another 6 to 544 1/4. Rice buyer still in place, 1245 1/2, plus 5 1/2 and early results not what we are hoping for. All across Ag, nothing is terrible, but nothing is beautiful either. Most variable crop production I can recall. Dow off 549 as we watch an overheated market reset, 27,525. Bonds recover 29 tics, 176.09.
Friday trade solid in the corn, 358, up 4 1/4 with concerns about production and China sales keeping us near the 360 pivot. Meal up over $4 but beans could only rally 2 cents, 968. Wheat getting tired and off 3 to 550 1/4. Rice up 5 1/2 to close 1240. Cash buyers out there sniffing around in rice so something export has been booked in front of harvest I would guess. Dow whipped around Friday thru the day and closed off 277 points, 28,074, but that was up 400 from the lows of the day. Computers have punched a lower hole in the market, looking to target someone. Bonds off 2 1/2 full points on trade that makes no sense to me, but does make me take notice, 175.12. Next week will be telling in the bonds, and potentially the dollar as well as global implications. Time to be nimble financially.
Thursday morning started off with great export sales in corn and beans and more talk of even more Chinese business, but the market just seems to be out of steam. Corn couldn't attract new buyers and faded to a nickel lower close, 353 3/4. Same story in wheat, off a nickel, 553 1/4. Beans, which have the best story by far, managed a 4 cent gain, 966. Rice crop is getting worse by the day, 1234 1/2, plus 6. Dow rolled over and fell 739 points, 28,351. All kinds of BS stories, but my reality is the computers couldn't find even one more sucker to buy, so its time to blow out all the new bulls. Bonds up 21 tics, 177.28.
Tuesday Ag trade lead by Dec wheat, 564, plus 11 3/4. Don't get use to wheat carrying the water. Beans up 1 1/4 to 954 3/4 and corn rallies to close 1/4 higher, 358. Corn had an open interest increase for the first time in the rally as funds are net buyers on the top. I don't see them fighting the combines very long, but stranger things have happened. I do believe what we have to sell off the combine needs to be priced here. Rice off 12 1/2 to 1223 as the fund short, who doesn't see the wind or rain damage, keeps his foot on the throat. Dow continues the up move, 28,622, plus 206 points while Dec bonds pick up 20 tics, 176.11.