Seems like a risk off Thursday as we opened firm but faded. Corn ended off 4 cents, 529 1/2. A private estimate of 170 area corn yields are now pretty widely disputed. Most are leaning towards the USDA estimate being about right, to what I believe is still a bit low. Beans poked above $13 but couldn't make it stick, 1296, plus 1 1/2. Meal gained $4, but oil lost 150 points and this has been an oil lead rally. Wheat could only muster 3/4 cent up, 713. Wheat has the best story and oats are screaming. Hard to get too friendly corn or beans going into harvest if the wheat cant get a strong run going. Its hard to fight the calendar and the combine. Rice drops 10 1/2 to 1368 1/2 and acts tired for now. Dow has a 400 point churn range, 34,626, off 75 on the close. Bonds leak 14 tics, 163.13.
Strong markets across the board Wednesday with bean oil catching a bid, and oats popping nearly a quarter on the day. Corn up 13 1/4 to 533 1/2 as some think the final yields will be off. Wheat up 11 1/2 as well, 712 1/4. Beans rally a dozen cents on bean oil strength, 1294 1/2 as the chartists hunt $13. Rice short buys his way out of a pretty big volume day of trade, 1379, plus 15 1/2. Pay attention to the increased volume. Dow churn machine back on as we pop 237 points, 34,701, while bonds slip 15 tics, 163.27.
Firmer tone to Tuesday trade with palm catching a bid off tariff reductions out of India and some SA strength. Oil was up nearly 90 points, but meal was off $3 and beans actually leaked 2 1/4 cents, 1282 1/2. I think the bulls have to make one more push at $13. Wheat bounced 13 3/4 to 700 3/4 and there is global tightness in wheat. Corn up 7 to 520 1/4 and we might get 525-530 on this run, but I struggle to justify much of any more. Rice up 8 1/2 cents to 1363 1/2 as the spec short is nervous and liquidating and Sept futures go off without any more new sales. There are 200 of the 1360-1400 Oct verticals that might come into play over the next week. Dow has over a 500 point range and weaker most of the day, 290 lower at the close, 34,464, and bonds gain a point and 5 tics to 164.10. Seems like no one wants to put much on the line in equities at the moment.
Monday action pretty muted coming off one of the early harvest weekends of pressure. Lows were placed early, as we should expect on Mondays, and a small bounce, but really not much considering what is going around the world as far as demand. Corn off 4 1/4 to 513 1/4, following wheat, off another 1 1/2 cents, 687. Shocking how far they have pushed wheat down. Beans off 1 3/4 to 1284 3/4 even with meal finding a bid and oil in low pricing area as far as bio demand. Rice up 7 cents, 13.55 and a short fund might be getting nervous. Switching to Dec in the financials moving forward, Dow up 263 is a churn bounce, 34,754, and bonds pick up 14 tics, 163.05. Would expect over time for them to go back and test the 165 area, but I'm no bull.
Friday trade started with reasonable export sales, but the real action came with WASDE numbers at 11. Initial soft trade on what was by most counts bearish numbers in corn and beans, but sell the rumor and buy the fact trade kicked in, allowing a strong bounce. Corn closed 517 1/2, up 7 1/2 but that was 20 off the lows. I think the numbers on closer inspection will not support much of a rally in corn or beans. Beans up 16 cents, 1286 1/2 with meal getting back over 340, although oil just cant get a bid. Rice report friendly and even before the report, iceberg buying kept a solid floor in place. We went off on the highs, 1348, plus 17. Would expect some harvest pressure across the grain floor Monday. Dow off 263 points, 34,607, and bonds gave back most of Thursday spike, 164.09, off 27 tics. Will be switching financials to December on Monday.
Thursday trade more just prepping for Friday morning WASDE, but wheat did continue breaking thru support levels, 692 1/4, off another 17 1/4. Beans were off 9 to 1270 1/2 with weak oil. Corn dead in the water, 510, minus 1/4. Rice slipped a penny, 1331 with current and new deliveries expected. Dow tried to look up but there is a reasonable amount of big banker talk looking for an equities set back, 34,870, off 142, while bonds gain 31 tics, 165.04. When you feel your best option as a money manager is 165 bonds with our current spending agenda, that says something.
Wednesday a pretty much nothing day was we await Friday WASDE. Dull corn, 510 1/4, off 1/2. Oats back under $5 in all months. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1332. Wheat gives up 10 1/4 to 709 1/2 after failing some Tech support. Beans do muster a small 2 1/2 cent bounce, 1279 1/2. Dow off 79 in churn trade, 35,012, and bonds retake most of Tuesday drop, 164.05, plus 22 tics. Back to harvest.
After a long weekend, Tuesday opened flat to weak most everywhere and really couldn't muster a bounce. Corn leaked all day and closed 510 3/4, off 13 1/4. Beans off 15 cents, 1277, meal and oil soft, and wheat gave up 6 1/2 to 719 3/4. Rice did gain 2 1/2 in pretty quiet trade, 1333 1/2. River is still looking for some rice it appears. Dow off 262 points, 35,091 and bonds lost a full point to close 163.15, but for financials that's really not bad, considering how poorly the global stories were over the weekend about our pull out.
Friday trade mostly clean up for both weekend and pre-report risks next week. Corn slips 1 1/2 to 524, middle of the day range. Wheat did gain 9 1/4 to 726 1/4 with several global tenders in the works and wheat is the global tight grain. Wheat could trade $3 over corn easily, so don't get too excited about the daily variances between corn and wheat this year. Because of price flexible feed usage for wheat, corn is better at giving wheat a floor than wheat is of corn. Rice up a penny in dull trade, 1331, and expect new receipts to get delivered. Beans up 8 3/4 cents, 1292, but it looked to be short covering and a hope to get back to $13, but that hope is fading fast. Dow off 71 points in a back and fill churn, 35,353, and bonds slip 16 tics, 164.15. No one is making any money in the financials but the computers.
Exports pretty decent but mostly expected Thursday to start the day, and the market is due a bounce. Corn up 2 3/4 to 525 1/2. Wheat gained 2 3/4 as well, 717. Rice up 6 with some bidding showing up to offset early harvest selling. 1330. Meal soft and walking away from the old 350 support, I'm afraid for good, but oil was firm and beans gained 5 1/2 cents, 1283 1/4. Dow showed some mild upside, 35,424, plus 134, and bonds gained 6 tics in s dead day, 164.31.
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