Friday weak early with the Dow getting hit but grains recovered thru the day. Corn rallied a dime from the lows to 677 1/4, off 1/4. Rice bounced 17 to 1782 1/2, plus 1/2. Beans close off 3 cents, 1448 1/2, but 15 off the lows as well. Wheat up 14 3/4 to 859 3/4. Dow recovered nearly 300 to 30,922, still off 148, while bonds slip 8 tics, 131.05.
Thursday finally got the export sales catch up, but lumped together it really didn't have any effect. As the combines work north and the dollar stays strong, its hard to justify keeping the false rally we had at the beginning of the week. Corn slips 4 3/4 to 677 1/2. Beans down only 3 1/2 to 1451 1/2. Wheat gets spanked for 27 1/4 cents, 845. Wheat is just a casino. Rice picks up a couple cents, 1782 as the harvest isn't getting any home runs and India crop is shrinking. Dow off 181 points, 31,070, and some expecting it to drop another 20 percents, while bonds slip 18 tics, 131.13. Soon enough all the worlds governments are going to have to figure out how to pay interest on all the debt they have run up, and most don't have the tax base to seize to pay the piper. This could be an interesting and cold winter in the EU, especially for the PIIGS.
Wednesday trade biased by fears of a rail shutdown as beans drop 23 3/4 to 1455 and corn off 10 1/2 to 682 1/4. Convenient story that has been known but raised to the top of the news cycle to justify a push down from the recent grain rally. Wheat up 11 3/4 cents, 872 1/4. Rice up a penny and a half, 1780. Dow up 39 points after the Tuesday rout, 31,251. Bonds up 2 tics, 131.31.
Tuesday spent the day trying to digest Monday WASDE report and nothing much wanted to follow thru. Beans got over $15 but rolled over to 1478 3/4, off 9 1/2. Corn slipped 3 1/4 to 692 3/4. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 860 1/2 with nothing trade, and rice picks up another 8 1/2 to 1778 1/2. This area around $8 a bu. in rice is attracting some sales out of the field. Dow got pummeled for 1286 points in a wash out of the recent rally, 31,212. News says the sky is now falling. News flash, we were at 31,166 last Monday. Guarantee the computers made money. Bonds off 13 tics, 131.29.
WASDE dropped Monday with surprises in most grains. Unexpected yield and acres drop in beans lead to a 76 point rip to the upside, 1488 1/4. Big 18K jump in open interest on the move. Interesting that meal and oil lost open interest. Unusual. Carry over down to 200 puts us pipeline tight. These are the numbers we have to trade for the next month, but I don't agree with them. Corn up 11 to 696. Wheat was a no change report and we leaked 10 3/4 lower on the day, 858 3/4. Rice report was friendly and They really have no more room to cut exports or domestic usage, 1770, plus 11 1/2. Harder to get a rally going with us in peak harvest time, but raises any floors. Switching to Dec for the Dow, 233 point gain to 32,498. Bonds off 20 tics, 132.10. I'm wondering if the Fed will make a bit more restrained comment at this months meeting.
Friday opened firm in the grain room with concerns about the Russia/Ukraine corridor as well as talk of weaker than expected harvest in the delta. Corn yields are off in several reports. Meal and oil solid with beans up 26 1/4 to end the week at 1412 1/4. Corn gained 16 1/2 to 685, and wheat rallied 40 1/2 cents, 869 1/2. Rice bear continued to buy his way out of a bad trade and India added a 20% tariff to their exports. 1758 1/2, plus 34 1/2. Dow back over 32K for the first time since a week ago Monday, 32,164, up 398 more points on the day, and nearly 1000 on the week. Bonds off 11 tics, 132.30.
Thursday not much to get excited about. Corn off 2 1/2 to 668 1/2. Wheat gives back 15 1/4 to 829. Beans stable and trying to base, 1386, plus 2 1/2 at the end. Rice bear failed on the push down and covered part of his sales, 1724, plus 18 1/2. Dow continued the bounce, 31,766, up 189 points while bonds slip 12 tics, 133.09.
Wild Wednesday trade that started with Putin talk of issues in the shipping corridor and wanting more concessions, but the rally faded thru the day, with beans closing 1383 1/2, off 15 1/4 and breaking 50 cents from the morning high. Corn went from a dozen higher to a nickel lower, 671. Wheat up 27 1/4 to 844 1/4, but even that close was half of the early morning highs. Rice lost 7 1/2 to 1705 1/2 as we found buying at the buck and decent volume thru the day. 118 new receipts registered and delivered with 100 left to close out September. Open interest dropped so no doubt the short fund is causing pain for the long one. Dow strong all day and 411 higher at the close, 31,577, while bonds recover a point and 7 tics, 133.21. Stocks have some really big put buying that seems to date to be absorbed pretty well.
Tuesday opened after a long weekend to more resets to positions, with corn bulls coming to the market, 12K open interest increase, and a 10 1/4 cent gain, 676. Wheat up 6 to 817 with some Russian rhetoric in the wind. Beans drop 21 3/4 to 1398 3/4 and the crop is looking way better than the corn. Rice gets whacked for 53 1/2 down to 1713 and there was a 17-18 strangle, so at least someone is telling you where we will stuck for the next few weeks. Dow off 146 points, 31,166 and the market is getting into the lower area of one of my indicators, while Dec bonds drop 2 points and 5 tics, 132.14.
Friday trade winding up positions for the long weekend. Corn recovers 1/2 of Thursday loss, 665 3/4, plus 7 3/4. Beans get back almost all of their drop, 1420 1/2, up 25 3/4. Wheat gains 16 3/4 to 811. Rice looked up 1800 but saw enough selling that the buyer went to the sidelines, 1766 1/2, off a penny. Bonds had a point and a tic recovery, 135.05. Will be switching to Dec moving forward. Dow drops 351 going into the long weekend, 31,312.
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