Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Monday

9/16/2024

 
I'd say in the grain room Monday the feature was the weak wheat performance giving back all Fridays rally, 578 1/2, minus 16 1/4.  Oats took it on the chin too and with a significant drop in open interest as these short horizon fund players come and go with painful results.  410 3/4 corn is off 2 1/2 while beans really held reasonably well, 1004 1/2, off 1 3/4.  Rice on the downside tested the buck before a full recovery to 1530, plus 3 1/2.  Nothing crazy over the weekend for the money boys and the Dec Dow bounced 232 points, 42,057.   We are switching to Dec for the Dow moving forward and I would like to note that if you are in one of those indexes the roll cost you 400 points, or 2000 bucks a Dow contract.    Ouch, the cost of passive investing went up.  Bonds up 15 tics, 127.06 in front of the FED dropping short term rates this week.  The only question now is how big the cut will be and is this a buy the rumor and sell the fact trade.  

Friday

9/13/2024

 
Loose money in the financials again Friday with the Dow gaining 281 points to close the week at 41,427.  Bonds added 12 tics, 126.23.  Wheat powered up 16 1/4 cents, 594 3/4 but it is still short covering.  Corn gained 7 1/4 to 413 1/4 on a 22k bump in open interest, which bears watching to determine if we really are placing a low for the move or we just suckered the quicker trend followers to act.  Beans slipped 4 1/2 cents, 1006 1/4.  Weather this weekend will shut down the delta harvest but should dial up as we work the machines north.  Nov rice closed 1526 1/2, plus 2 and 281 Sept went off 23 cents better.  I can't sort that squeeze out.  Hopefully time will make sense of it vs. just a stubborn trade.  

Thursday

9/12/2024

 
Buildup to Thursday trade, with exports a nothing to start the day.  Hurricane is not doing any real damage to the rice areas so far and if anything, bringing beneficial rain to the river freight dance.  WASDE brought a punt to wheat, and not much of anything exciting in corn or beans.  Rice got a bearish report but so far, the market has shrugged that off.  With the September futures squeeze between commercials, it's pretty clear that something potentially big is brewing in the rice export game.  Finally got 25 receipts registered and the long stopper has been there since July 3rd.  Nov rice up 14 cents, 1524 1/2.  Wheat off 3/4 to 578 1/2.  Corn looked below the buck but recovered to 406, plus 1 1/4.  Beans even better, 1010 3/4, up 10 1/4.  All for all a decent showing.  Dow gains another 240 points, 41,146 and bonds leak 14 tics, 126.11.

Wednesday

9/11/2024

 
Wednesday trade still a set up for all the inputs coming Thursday in the grain room with the added bonus of the computers running the Dow down nearly 800 points early before a full recovery and 109 point HIGHER close, 40,906.  Bonds watched from the sidelines, 126.25, off 4 tics.  Personally, one of my tells for a washout is how the bonds react when the children are thrashing around in the Dow.  Corn settled 1/2 cent better, 404 3/4 while wheat gained a nickel, 579 1/4.  Beans drawn to the buck, 1000 1/2 close for a 3 1/4 cent gain.  Rice up another 21 to 1510 1/2 and from here up in rice we meet some harvest resistance.  This can all change with WASDE.

Tuesday

9/10/2024

 
Beans off 20 3/4 in Tuesday trade, 997 1/4 close.  Corn down 3 cents, 404 1/4.  More short covering in wheat, 574 1/4, plus 5 3/4 and rice gains 17 1/2 cents back from Mondays drop, 1489 1/2.  Grain room has the computers to push those looking to even up in front of Thursdays WASDE report, export sales, and hurricane implications.  Busy day Thursday makes Tuesday and Wednesday just prep days.  Dow off 84 points in a 500-point range, 40,798, again thank you computers for the noise, and Dec bonds gain 24 tics, 126.29.  Believe that's a contract high.  

Monday

9/9/2024

 
Dow recovers 475 points Monday, 40,882 and December bonds gain 9 tics, 126.05, so money is comfortable to start the week.  Beans seem to be hitting some resistance at 1020 and we close 1018, up 13.  Don't see a lot of desire for the products here.  Corn gained a penny, 407 1/4 and wheat picked up 1 1/2 to 568 1/2.  Rice took it on the chin as the combines keep rolling with big yields, 1472, off 37 cents.  I am hearing of some shaky milling yields as this crop sure is drying down fast.  

Friday

9/6/2024

 
Exports were ok everywhere Friday morning but a little soft rice.  We opened the grain room with a bid but faded all day long.  Beans ultimately lost 18 1/2 cents, 1005.  Thats 25 cents off the early highs.  Wheat off another 7 3/4 to 567 and corn slipped 4 1/2 as well, 406 1/4, a dime off the highs.   Rice spread had the total open interest offered for a period and the crop keeps getting better.  1509 Nov, minus 22.   Dow didn't help matters, 40,407, off 422 points and bonds got a small 8 tic bounce, 125.25.  

Thursday

9/5/2024

 
Little back and fill Thursday with corn giving back 2 cents, 410 3/4 and wheat off 6 to 574 3/4.  Beans did gain a couple with an impressive close for what the day's trade was, 1023 1/2.  Rice up 8 1/2 to 1531 but hitting a bunch of resistance. Exports delayed until Friday morning.  Dow off 222 points,40,829 and bonds up 16 tics, 125.17 as the big financial picture is getting quite shaky.  

Wednesday

9/4/2024

 
Strength continued Wednesday with wheat leading the way, 580 3/4, plus 14.  Corn hitting some resistance, 412 3/4, only 3 1/2 better.  Beans gained 9 1/2 cents, 1021 1/2. Rice got thru the $15 area and pushed up to the next level of resistance near 1530, settling 29 better, 1522 1/2.  Dow just wanted some stability, 41,051, up 33 points and bonds gained a full point, 125.01.

Tuesday

9/3/2024

 
Bidding strong after a long holiday weekend and maybe this is another example of the market turning directions on holidays.  Corn gains another 8 1/4 cents, 409 1/4.  Beans pick up a dozen to 1012 close after a brief look near 1025.  Solid wheat trade, 566 3/4, plus 15 1/4 and rice gains 15 as well, 1493 1/2.   Financials skittish with the Dow off 635 points, 41,018 and bonds gaining a point and 2 tics, 124.01. 
Forward>>

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