Monday trade firm in the Dow with no weekend escalations, 30,230, plus 522, but really just oversold for now and directional moves need fuel to keep moving. Bonds off 11 tics, 123.12. Good harvest weekend but some really cold areas have some wondering if there was late damage. Wheat stalled at 861, up 1 1/4. Beans held and closed 1385 1/4, up 1 1/2. Corn slipped 6 1/4 to 683 1/2 and some worries about river freight making export sales difficult to fulfill and possible demand destruction in the ethanol side. Rice off another 6 1/2 to 1667 with increasing open interest, so the funds are probably increasing their short to a commercial increasing his long.
Friday trade more of a cleanup going into a harvest weekend. Wheat hit the most, 859 3/4, off 32 1/2. Just computers doing what computers do. Corn off 8 in tow, 689 3/4. Beans give up a dozen to 1383 3/4 with large harvest runs expected this weekend. Rice slips 2 1/2 to 1673 1/2. Sell program isn't getting much bang for the buck lately. Financials didn't help the grain room with the Dow giving back 383 points, 29,708, and bonds off 27 tics, 123.23.
Thursday trade led by comments out of Putin that they didn't plan to do anymore mass shelling in Ukraine, and some perceived that as an opening to talks. Dow rocketed 830 higher, 30,091. Really just back to prices from last Wednesday. Bonds were down hard but bounced to only 19 tics lower, 124.18. Concerns about the extension of the shipping corridor lifted wheat a dime, 892 1/4, and corn up 4 3/4 to 697 3/4. Beans traded both sides and a solid export flash to china brought us to a 1/4 lower close, 1395 3/4. Still looking at a weekend of harvest pressure ahead. Rice off a nickel, 1676, and some concerns about exports, especially to Mexico and business being lost to Brazil in the mix. Dollar strength not helping there either.
WASDE Wednesday but nothing really that shocking in the reports. Bean carryover down to 200, but the street doesn't really believe that number. 1396 close is 19 3/4 higher, and I would say that's a poor performance for the number. For what its worth, I think bean yield is at least 100 million bu higher than they do. Corn report a rounding error from expected and we closed unchanged, 693. Wheat off 18 3/4 to 882 1/4 but really just taking back the rest of Monday rally. Dow off 5 points, 29,261, and bonds up 16 tics, 125.05.
Tuesday trade mostly resetting for WASDE tomorrow at 11. Wheat gives back most of Monday trade, 901, off 37 cents. Corn slips 5 1/4 to 693. Beans get a slight bounce, 1376 1/4, plus 2 1/4. Rice has almost 2000 volume and 1/2 higher close, 1672. Dow churned up and down but closes 6 higher, 29,266. Bonds recover 16 tics, 124.21.
New week, new news. Crimea bridge bombing has most concerned that the Russia corridor will not get extended. I suspect that it will, because Russia has lots of wheat to still move. Wheat pops 57 3/4 to 938. Lots of air on both sides of the wheat market. Corn up 15 as well, 698 1/4. Beans rally on strong China hog and meal margins with the hope that China shows up here with more bids, as well as the river is back up and running. Cash buyers still want to rob you on basis, but they just lost one of their stories. Beans looked near $14 but settled back to 1374, plus 7. Rice sell program is relentless, 1671 1/2, off 11. We have a large long spec position being slowly liquidated and a new short fund at the same time. One reassures the other for now. Dow off 93 to 29,260, and bonds lose a point and 12 tics, 124.05.
Friday trade Weak in the financials with the Dow in nearly a 1000 point range and closing off 629 points, 29,353. Bonds off 24 tics, 125.17. Beans lower early but a stronger meal market brought soy 9 higher, 1367. Corn up 7 3/4 as well, 683 1/4. Side note that oats have fallen to 3.79. Wheat traded as high as 896 but faded to 880 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Rice off 6 1/2 to 1682 1/2 and open interest is down to 8051. Commercial shorts re-owning, and spec longs liquidating. Same story, different day. WASDE on Wednesday and there is a big spread in opinion for this one. I've got these crops bigger, especially beans, but it appears for now that I am in the minority.
Export sales Thursday morning pretty decent in beans, less than I would have hoped in the rest, and with Mississippi river force majeure called by one barge company and a real possibility of affecting gulf loading entirely, exports out of the gulf are in real peril for the next several weeks until the basin can get some water. Meal basis weakens and drops 5 bucks flat price, while beans slip 11 3/4 to 1358. Wheat off 23 to 879 in the face of Russian uncertainty of the Ukraine corridor, while corn loses 8 1/2 cents, 675 1/2. If you look at production in fuel terms instead of feed terms, corn throws off nearly 3 gallons of fuel per bu., while beans make a little over a gallon and a half of fuel, and it takes a bunch more fert to make the corn yield. All the sudden the old ratios for corn beans can get compressed inside of 2 to 1 depending on use. At 1.9 to 1, corn can stall here and again we get 12.80 beans. Man, that number keeps coming up. Don't think we would hold there, but don't see why we won't look there. Rice off 8 to 1689. Options open interest in rice is growing at the $17 strike.
Wednesday trade really a reset day with the Dow off 400 but recovering to 55 lower, 30,310. Bonds lost a full point and 28 tics to 126.26. Fed is telling the market that they will keep rates high longer, and the market is telling the Fed that will put us into a depression. Wonder who will be right, the Fed or the market. River freight is thru the roof and basis has collapsed, so beans off 13 3/4 to 1369 3/4 may just be the start. Wheat lost a penny, 902, and corn gained a penny, 684. Don't forget there is 3 gallons of gas in every bu of corn. Another liquidation day for the long in rice but still close 1/2 higher, 1697.
Tuesday has the second day in a row of explosive equities rally as the Dow ramps up another 827 points to 30,365. Bonds only up 11 tics, 128.21. Musk is going to close on the Twitter deal and there was a short squeeze. Grain room more placid as wheat slips 9 to 903 and corn only holds 2 1/4 cents of its early gains, 683. Beans bounce 9 1/2 to 1383 1/2. Low river issues have killed basis and that will spill over into export shipments, not bullish. Rice seller pushed again but we closed up 3 cents, 1696 1/2 so the seller got nothing for his troubles, and he has sold a bunch. New flooding being reported in Thailand with some crop damage, but nailing down a number is difficult right now. Not an excessive amount like Pakistan problems at this point.
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