Kind of a hodge podge Thursday with end of month positioning as well as digesting Nov deliveries. Wheat gave back Wednesday trade, 570 1/2, minus 2 3/4 and corn slipped 3/4 to 410 3/4. Bean deliveries spread across the street, but small numbers and basis up there firmed to even or better, nice to see. 982 1/2, plus 6. Rice had a big bidder in Nov as well, 1469 1/2, plus a dozen in the front and a big volume day in Jan. When there is big volume and you are in the game, you probably need to participate. Dow hit for another 416 points, 41,947 and bonds slip 3 tics, 117.31.
Lots of position adjustments Wednesday in front of November deliveries with rice taking a 36 1/2 cent hit, 1457 1/2 while beans recover 11 1/4 cents to 976 1/2. Beans have exports that so far have been elusive to rice. Corn slipped 2 1/4 to 411 1/2 and wheat held Tuesday bounce and up another 2 3/4 to 573 1/4. Dow wanted to look higher but selling put us 84 lower at the close, 42,363 with election jitters and bonds picked up 12 tics, 118.02.
November futures under a bit of pressure thru the day Tuesday as we approach first intentions on Wednesday close and the spreads weaken. Beans off another 8 3/4 cents, 965 1/4 while rice loses 13 1/2 to 1494. Hard to squeeze a big crop in November. Corn got a 3-cent bounce, 413 3/4 and wheat popped 11 3/4 to 570 1/2. I believe the biggest harvest numbers of the year are in the rear-view mirror. Dow off 159 points, 42,447 and bonds look almost a full point lower early but gain a tic by the close, 117.22.
After a weekend of harvest, we had soft grain trade Monday with beans off 13 3/4 cents, 974. Corn lost 4 1/2 to 410 3/4 and wheat hit for 10 3/4 cents, 558 3/4. Rice more spread roll and Nov is already under 1100 open, 1507 1/2 close, minus 1/2. We are pricing in a lot of yields, and I think breaks from here on will be harder for the funds to achieve. Heard multiple reports of Tar spot and aphids hitting corn yields and just lack of moisture producing BBs for beans and lower test corn than expected. I see no reason for that to improve as we work north so my guess is the high yields are in at the USDA. Dow bounced back almost exactly Friday's break, 42,606, plus 285 points while bonds slid another 20 tics, 117.21.
After Thursday big exports failed to goose the grain room much higher, it was pretty easy to expect some weakness Friday in front of another big harvest weekend. With November options expiration in Beans on tap with we settled 8 1/2 lower, 987 3/4. I'm a bit surprised we didn't pin a strike. Open interest in Nov beans dropped by 71,000 down to 112K left open, showing the magnitude of what expiration can do to the number of players in the game. A bit of the same story in rice, 1508 close, up 4 cents and open interest in Nov down to 1631, minus 446 on the day. Dec corn down 6 1/4 to 415 1/4 and wheat fell 12 1/2 cents, 569. The wheat dog isn't helping anything else on the floor. Nothing earth shaking in Commitments. Dow off another 284 points to end the week at 42,321. Thats almost 1200 points lower than last Friday. Bonds off 15 tics, 118.09.
Thursday morning corn and bean exports huge as expected and sadly, the market had priced it in. Corn mustered a 2 1/2 cent better close and near the top of my expected range, 421 1/2, while beans lost 1 1/4 to 996 1/4 after an early look above 1010 and meal rolled over as well. I'm hoping for some support Friday but do not expect it with another harvest weekend to contend with. Wheat up 3 cents, 581 1/2 and lackluster trade there too. Rice closes 1504, minus 6 1/2 and I'm more wary of catching that knife for churn trade with Nov deliveries next week and the spread unusually tight for the amount of grain out there. No bounce in the Dow, 42,605, off another 133 points and bonds did bounce 23 tics, 118.24.
Humpday trade in beans up another 5 3/4 to 997 1/2 as we chase the $10 Nov options pin for Friday. Corn up 2 1/2 to 419 and wheat even gets a 2 1/2 cent bounce, 578 1/2. Exports Thursday morning known to be big from all the flash trades, just how big? Rice roll continues and now under 3K of Nov open interest left, 1510 1/2, off 2. Dow got wacked for 431 points in a dog day all day, 42,738 and bonds off another 14 tics, 118.01.
Tuesday another firm trade in the grain room with front loaded exports in corn and beans driving gulf bids for prompt supply higher, especially in beans. 991 3/4 close is 10 3/4 better as we hunt for the $10 Nov strike before expiration this Friday. Corn up 7 as well, 416 1/2. Wheat just doesn't want to play, 576, up 3 3/4 but at least positive. Rice still in the range, 1512 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Dow had to struggle to get to 43,169, minus 8 and one of the big houses is calling this thing toppy/tired. Bonds off 7 tics, 118.15. Bonds are scaring me a bit as to longer term inflation risks.
Some big sales in corn gave us a Monday bid even with harvest running full swing, 409 1/2, plus 4 3/4. Wheat tried to follow but just didn't have any gas in the tank, and that gives me pause on getting too bullish this week, 572 1/4, off 1/2. Beans got back a little more than 1/2 of Fridays sell off, 981, up 11. Rice had big spread roll with over 1000 Novembers moved in a day, but not much in flat price, 1509, plus 9. Financials a bit shaky with the Dow off 341 points, 43,177 and more importantly, bonds off a point and 18 tics, 118.22. Seems like big money is quietly walking away from long term Debt. If we follow Japan's debit demise, long bonds could destroy your real purchasing power over time.
Friday trade trying to get ahead of a big harvest weekend with beans ultimately getting hit for 18 3/4 cents, 970. Corn had some sizable export sales, especially to Mexico which dampens the risk of excess fund selling and the funds had already sold another 63K into new shorts by last Tuesday. Corn off 2 pennies, 404 3/4. Surprised at the weakness in Wheat, 572 3/4, off 16 3/4 for the day, but if you look at closes thru the week, we only traded a 17-cent churn. Sometimes. especially on Fridays when the trading week is done it is beneficial to step back and just review what the computers really did vs what it feels like they did. Short started his spread roll in rice but other than that the market is stalled, $15 even, plus 1/2 cent. Dow weak thru the day but dressed up to paint the weeks close, 43,518, plus 7 points while bonds recover 8 tics, 120.08.
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