Friday trade lead by Dow gaining 418 points to end the week 29,410. Bonds dead and off 3 tics, 172.06. Bounce in Ag as corn trades back and forth but closes 2 1/4 better, 410 1/2. Same in the beans, 1148, plus 2 1/2. Wheat picks up 5 1/4 for a 593 1/2 close. Rice gains 9 1/2 to 1237, abet on another low volume day. Domestic mills are taking longer than expected to refill the pipeline to the shelf. That shows at least solid domestic demand over base expectations.
Markets soft as barges are pretty much all full and the China buying binge takes a breather Thursday. Export sales delayed until Friday. Corn off 9 cents, 408 1/4. Wheat follows down 9 3/4 to 588 1/4. Beans slip 7 to 1145 1/2 but the bean options got a hit to volatility as well. Rice breaks 16 1/2 on another day of lite volume, 1227 1/2. Wuhan lock down threats in several states, including Illinois, drives some out of the Dow, 28,992, off 319. Right now the Elite are just asking you to stay home. For like 3 weeks. If you don't, they will command it. Why not just cut out the pleasantries and command it from the beginning. I'm thinking the sidelines aren't a bad place for the next few days myself. Bonds rally a point and 20 tics to 172.09. We do have a lot of air above in the bond market if the computers want to push.
Wednesday trade mostly softer in grains as no news to feed the bull gives us a pullback in corn of 5 3/4 to 417 1/4. Wheat drops 10 1/2 to 598. Wheat doesn't seem to like being over $6 for very long. Beans have a 6 1/2 cent follow thru rally but sure acting tired as volatility gets sucked out of July options. Rice unchanged, but tired as well. 1244. Dow just has a churn trade, 29,311, off 8 points, and bonds find 21 tics, 170.21.
Tuesday WASDE numbers very bullish for corn and beans. Corn responds with a 15 1/2 cent rally, 423. Beans pop 35 1/2 to 1146. Meal up $10 and more for all the front months. Wheat gains 11 to 608 1/2. Rice numbers on the surface was bearish, 1244, up a nickel. Dow up 271 points, 29,319 and bonds slip 6 tics, 170 even. Buckle up folks, the rest of this year is going to be bumpy.
Weekend came and went without any rioting or protests over the election, no earth shattering announcements about lawsuits, and a big announcement about a Wuhan china virus vaccine that will be out before the end of the year. About a week too late for Trump. Corn acting like its getting full up here, but selling got met with buying and we closed 3/4 higher, 407 1/2. Rice was dead again, 1239, minus 2 1/2, on a full days volume(143) that I have had on a single trading card for my personal account. Literally hundreds of times. Sad state of affairs as far as volume goes. Wheat just a churn trade and off 4 1/2 to close 597 1/2. Beans demand still there, although I'm told barge availability for prompt is tough. 1110 1/2, plus 9. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is financials, Dow closes up 844 points, 29,048, but that was 950 points off new highs set early in the day. Bonds get slaughtered for a 3 full point and 4 tic break, 170.06. We have been stressing this for a while, and although I think we might have overdone it for now, this bond break can have a lot more legs over the coming months.
Friday markets mostly soft with weekend risk off where possible. Corn slips 2 1/2 to 406 3/4. Wheat closes 602, minus 7 1/4. Meal was soft in the front months as bull spreads weakened, letting beans coast 2 1/4 lower to 1101 1/2. Rice trade dead really and down 1 1/2 settling 1241 1/2. Rice needs new business. Dow off 93 which I thought was better than what could have been with all the lawsuit threats out there. 28,204. Bonds off a point and a tic, 173.10. Sure you are tired of hearing it, but get those long term debt rates locked.
Dow continued its march up as it closed above yesterdays range, 28,297, plus 562. Use to be take the stairs up and the elevator down, now its elevator up, not sure how down works. I would caution that normally when the elevator passes you by and you are too late to the door, you walk into a big dark hole. Bonds closed off 3 tics, 174.11, after being a point and 1/2 higher. Bit of a reversal. Same story in the grains, with corn 4 higher, 409 1//4, but 8 off the high. Beans gain 17 1/2 to 1103 3/4, but 9 off the top, and wheat gains 3 1/4 cents, 609 1/4, but that's a 17 cent drop from the high print. ouch. Rice gains 15 to 1243, but after the close McGehee registered 135 new receipts and November longs just got 100% of their desires. We will probably see next that the longs did not in fact desire 100% of their position.
Pretty crazy election driven trade Wednesday in the financials, and demand and dry weather stories continue out of SA. Bonds have a near 5 full point range day and close up 2 points and 13 tics, 174.14. Dow rallies to 27,735, plus 359, but over 450 points off the highs. Be wary in both, as now the computers have such wide ranges to churn in. Beans lit a fire, up 22 to 1086 1/4 with meal strong and up $8. Corn up 4 1/4 to 405 1/4 after a slow start. Wheat closes off a couple, 606, but well off the lows as buyers kept coming thru the day. This grain market isn't done yet. Rice up 3 to 1228 in Jan and someone looked to be doing some buying out in march. Looks like November will just be a commercial delivering to a commercial late in cycle.
Pre-election trade Tuesday had corn and bean spreads getting some carry added as river logistics, just plain old getting the volume sold already moved out the door, are coming into play. Corn picks up 3 1/2 to 401 in a classic Monday/Tuesday trade. Jan Beans even stronger, gaining 12 to 1064 1/4. Wheat closes 1/2 higher, 608, but was 8 higher earlier in the day. Jan rice off 4 1/2 to 1225. It looks to me like a commercial sold some rice spreads figuring he will have dry rice by the end of the month to deliver. Long will grind it up, but it sad that the commercial doesn't just pay the farmer on the front end. God forbid a commercial would post a premium bid for the farmer and the whole world to see in rice. Dow rocks for 580 higher, 27,376, and bond drop another 23 tics, 172.01.
Monday trade supported by a strong Dow, 26,796, plus 402, and wheat up 9 to 607 1/2, stopping the downward move it has been in. Corn off a penny after a strong harvest weekend which isn't a bad showing to me at all, 397 1/2. Switching to Jan in beans and rice, beans slip 4 to 1052 1/4, and rice off 7 cents, 1229 1/2. Beans got some #1 deliveries out of Morris to go with the Chicago early deliveries, lending me to believe its more about placing the barges promptly than anything else. I bet we have cancellations by the weekend. No new rice receipts as most of the remaining OI in Nov paid up in the spread. Long picked up 40-50 cents from carry in a November squeeze. You wont see that in very many years.Bonds struggle to gain 9 tics, 172.24.
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