Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Friday

11/29/2024

 
Friday trade not much to stir about as bulls try to dress up positions for the weekend and month end.   March corn gained a nickel, 433 while march wheat slipped 1/2 to 548.  Beans picked up 3/4 at the end of the churn trade, 989 1/2 while rice gained 4 1/2 to 1521 1/2.  Someone bought another 150 rice March 1560 calls financed by $15 puts.  Up to 400 calls right at 7 bucks worth watching.  Dow pushed above the buck, 45,055 for a 227-point gain and March bonds up 22 tics, 119.16. 

Wednesday

11/27/2024

 
Wednesday trade has holiday and first intentions concerns both in the mix, playing with flat price and spreads.  Dec corn drops 4 1/4 cents in front of feared delivery risk at the close while March corn closes unchanged, 428.  Only 111 corn issued after the close.  We will be shifting to march moving forward on all the Dec contracts.  Delivery clerks pushed out the last of the stubborn wheat longs in Dec but then had a solid recovery to only off 1 3/4 cents, 537 3/4.  Z/H spread gained 8 cents and the margin clerk no longer works for the bear. No wheat delivered.  Jan beans gain 5 1/4 to 988 3/4 but the meat on the bone is in the December products.  Meal worth $290 AND at pretty good carry incentives still got delivered by commercials like Bunge and littered around the street.  Commercial didn't deliver a drop of bean oil.  Pay attention to what the commercial is telling you there.  1517 rice up 4 1/2.  We will soon see how big the river pull for rice is.  Dow posted a new record, 45,121 and proceeded to set back to 44,828, minus 123 and not too far off session lows.  Bonds gained another 24 tics, 118.20.  It cost 450 points to roll a long Dow out to march, a few tics to do the same in bonds.  Another thing to pay attention to.

Tuesday

11/26/2024

 
Holiday and liquidation trade again Tuesday with corn off 4 3/4 to 420 and beans off 2 1/4 to 983 1/2.  Wheat got a small 3 3/4 cent bounce, 539 1/2 and rice picked up 19 as well, 1512 1/2.  Dow continues the melt up, 44,951, plus 125 points while bonds give back 13 tics of Mondays impressive rally, 117.28.  My chart says these bonds could have a bit more to the upside so I'm afraid to sell Mondays bump.  

Monday

11/25/2024

 
Monday trade again lead by the Dow, 44,826, plus 431 points and a new record high.  Bonds up 2 full points, 118.09 and I don't have a solid reason why just yet.   Commitments showed the funds meal short position a bit too big, so we got a bid in meal which helped soy stay 2 1/4 better at the end of the day, 985 3/4.  Corn leaked 3/4 to 424 3/4 with more great sales but the concern that come January 20 we will see the Mexico buying shut off.  If you are an export seller, probably not a bad idea to grab that basis strength.  Wheat off 8 1/2 as we try to flush out the last of the stubborn longs in front of first intentions on Wednesday, 535 3/4.  Rice off 21 cents, 1493 1/2 but the funds still show a very large short position, and the rice crop will have to mill several more million cwt just to make the same domestic package amount this year with milling yields off so much.  At some point the USDA will have to reconcile that issue.  

Friday

11/22/2024

 
Not a lot of news Friday but the financials put up a solid bounce with the Dow up 406 points to end the week at 44,395.  On 11/11 we closed 44,441, broke to 42,991 on 11/19 and now have made the whole trip back up.  Where this matters to us in the grain room is don't be surprised to see outsized runs without much news, and if we get a good run to the upside between thanksgiving and Christmas, we really have to take some of the money.  Bonds up 5 tics, 116.09.  Beans bounced 5 3/4 cents to close 983 1/2.  Corn leaked 1 1/4 to 425 1/2 and wheat off 4 1/2 to 544 1/4.  With Dec options out of the way we could churn both ways in the next few trading days.  Remember next Wednesday close will be first intentions, so make sure your Dec longs are cleaned up.  Rice off 2 1/2 to 1514 1/2 but the fund short is still oversized.    

Wednesday

11/20/2024

 
Not a lot of change for Humpday trade.  Corn picks up 3 cents, 430 1/4 while wheat gains 2 3/4 to 552 1/2.  Rice up 2 1/2 to 1512.  Someone was buying march calls, and the bears couldn't break rice, so I would be a bit patient on selling until we see if one of the bulls wants to push.  Beans down to support, 990 1/2, off 8 cents.  Dow looked lower but no more liquidation to be found and we close 116 points better, 43,516.  Bonds off 11 tics, 116.18.

Tuesday

11/19/2024

 
Bit of Monday/Tuesday trade in grains as beans give back Monday rally, 998 1/2, minus 11 1/4.  Corn of a couple, 427 1/4 and rice off 7 cents, 1509 1/2.  Wheat counter trend, 549 3/4, plus 2 1/2.  Dow looked ugly early but mostly recovered, 43,400, off 140 points while bonds gain 19 tics, 116.29.

Monday

11/18/2024

 
Solid Monday in the grain room with corn up another 5 1/4 cents, 429 1/4 while wheat gained 10 3/4 to 547 1/4.  Beans back over the buck very well, 1009 3/4, plus 10 3/4.  Rice short cover continues, 1516 1/2, a dozen more to the good.  Dow off 28 tics, 43,540 and bonds close unchanged, 116.10.

Friday

11/15/2024

 
Solid open in the grain market Friday and we held thru the day.  Corn up a nickel, 424 while wheat gained 6 1/4 to 536 1/2.  Beans up 11 cents, 998 1/2 and rice pops 37 1/2 to 1504 1/2.  Not much grain room harvest pressure for the weekend but Dec options expiration only a week away now.   We got that solid grain action on a weaker Dow, 43,568, minus 333 points and bonds off 8 tics, 116.10.  Bonds needed a full point rally to paint a less ugly weekly close.  Commitments showed funds are short and wrong in rice while they are strong and long corn. 

Thursday

11/14/2024

 
Risk off day everywhere Thursday with beans back under the buck 987 1/2, minus 20 1/4.  Corn hit for 7 1/2 to 419 and wheat off 10 3/4 more, 530 1/4.  This wheat break has gotten silly, and I expect s solid rally in the near future as long as the other grains of the world hold even close to here.  Rice off 30 1/2 cents, 1467 as the short squeeze takes a break but I don't think this rally is over.  Dow off 207 points with Powell talking but, in my opinion, he didn't add anything.  Bonds up 23 tics, 116.18.  Bear channels have bounces. 
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