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Post holiday trade Friday pretty choppy with corn up another 2 1/2 cents, 447 3/4 but wheat off 2 to 538 1/2. Beans picked up 6 1/4 to end the week at 1137 3/4 but rice off 6 cents, 1007 1/2. Dow up another 253 points, 47,743 but bonds slipped 11 tics, 117.28.
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Wednesday first intentions for the corn and wheat and corn spreads gained 1 1/4 with Dec ending 8 1/4 better, 431 3/4 and March plus 7 cents, 445 1/4. Wheat up 1 3/4 in the March, 540 1/2. We will be using march futures in corn and wheat moving forward. Beans pick up 6 3/4 to 1131 1/2. Rice bear still wanting to keep a lid on the show, 1013 1/2, off 3 1/2. Dow bid again, 47,490, plus 311 and bonds still holding, 118.07, up 4 more tics. Happy Thanksgiving.
Strong recovery in the financials Tuesday with the Dow up 665 points, 47,179 and bonds up another 12 tics, 118.03. Really just a big churn range, they ran out of people to flush to the downside, and no one wants an ugly close going into a holiday. Wheat got a nickel bounce, 527 1/4 and beans gained 1 1/2 to close 1124 3/4. Spread roll pushed Dec corn off 1/4 cent, 423 1/2 but March was a little better. Rice off 24 1/2 as they push back down now that there wasn't follow thru buying. 1017 close.
Monday trade a buildup to Dec deliveries first intentions on Wednesday and first notice Friday with a holiday tucked into the middle. This is the beginning of silly season thru the new year where things don't necessarily make sense as funds move money, positions, and trading strategies for yearend purposes, and since funds are bigger than ever, it could get sillier than usual. Grains a hair softer but stable, Corn off 1 /34 to 423 3/4, same with beans to 1123 1/4, following wheat's lead, 522 1/4, off 4 3/4. Rice down 3 cents, which I would argue is pretty good given the Friday pop, 1041 1/2. Financials just looking for stability, Dow up 193 points, 46,514 and bonds up 16 tics, 117.23. Bonds have been stuck in a range for a while now.
Markets quiet Friday if they didn't have fuel. Corn slipped a penny, 425 1/2 and wheat settled unchanged, 527. Beans up 2 1/2 to 11.25. Rice bid up 41 1/2 by the close, 1044 1/2. Coincidentally, there was a big 1040 Dec Calander put that was going off on Fridays close. Bonds up 10 tics, 117.07 but the Dow popped 496 points in another big range, 46,321. The financial boys needed to prop up the Dow as it sure wouldn't look good for the weekend if we settled under 46K.
Financials Thursday opened strong with chip earnings huge, but a reversal leads the Dow 1000 points off the highs, 45,825, minus 383 points on a day that strength was expected. Bonds up 10 tics, 116.29. Grains weaker. beans off 13 3/4 to 1122 1/2 and wheat falls another 9 3/4 to 527, totally erasing the week's gains. Corn down 3 1/4 cents, 426 1/2 and rice tests new lows, 1003, minus 7 1/2. All around ugly Thursday but not a meltdown, yet anyway.
Humpday trade rough in the grain room with beans hit for 17 1/4 cents, 1136 1/4 and corn off 7 to 429 3/4. Wheat off 9 3/4 to 536 3/4 and rice down 24 1/2 cents, 1010 1/2. The funds really want a 9 handle, and the commercial has no reason to stop them. Dow peeked under 46K but closed 46,208, plus 24 as we ran out of sellers to puke. Bonds off 4 tics, 116.19.
Tuesday trade just murky as everything is trying to find direction. After a wonderfully strong run in equities, the Dow is faltering, off another 481 points, briefly looking below 46K before settling at 46,184. Bonds dead flat, 116.23. Wheat trying valiantly to hold its pop, 546 1/2, plus 2 1/4 and corn came along, 436 3/4, up 2, but really seemed to me to struggle with that. Beans off 3 3/4 to 1153 1/2 and rice off 9 cents, 1035. Grain room needs some fuel, and soon.
Monday grains firmer on China buying, beans up 32 1/2 cents, 1157 1/4. Wheat pops 17 to 544 1/4 and corn in tow, 434 3/4, plus 4 3/4. No question to me we had some more significant fund buying. Rice dead, 1044, minus 6. Dow slumping, 46,665, off 564 points while bonds pick up 7 tics, 116.23.
Friday WASDE finally arrived, and although I didn't think it was some huge bearish report, the markets had built in a pretty bullish story. I don't think many believe January will hold a 186-corn number, but we are a long way from January and one thing I have learned is don't fight the numbers. Corn off 11 1/4 to end the day 430 1/4, right back at where we ran into resistance on the way up. Beans off 22 1/2 cents, 1124 1/2 and meal held up a little better than I expected. Trump still says China is on track and they will have an announcement soon, but the market is losing patience with "soon". Wheat down 8 1/2 to 527 1/4 as the rest of the world hasn't followed our lead higher. Really just an up and down churn week in wheat. Rice up 11 1/2 to 1050 with the first mildly friendly WASDE print in over a year, and it seems like all of the delta players that had to sell have, so let's see what domestics will pay to stay running thru Christmas. We have some small Latin export business, and the Iraq sales will keep our mills running. Heard Co-op sold at least one of the 40K units cheap.
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