Wednesday trade started firm in beans but faded to 1/2 lower, 1183 3/4 by the close. Meal stayed strong so I think the bears are fishing for tired longs going into the end of the year. Corn gained 2 1/2 to 427 1/4 and wanting to look over 430. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 598 1/2. Rice up a cent to 1234, but spread roll had 500 net longs sneak in and a friendly 3 way 100 lot Feb options trade got snuck in. Dow in a churn day again and closes off 40 points, 30,074 while bonds gain a tic, 172.30.
Meal set the firm tone Tuesday, and held for a $7 gain on the day, dragging beans up 14 3/4 to 1184 1/4. I had expected the bean run at $12 to come next week after we digested rain events in SA, but those 20,000 Jan $12 calls are pulling too hard to wait. Corn stable in a nickel range trade and up 3/4 to close 424 3/4. Wheat picked up 3 1/4 cents, 599 1/4. Rice off 8 1/2 to 1233 with some pretty decent volume and almost 300 vs cash. Tuesday, so we will get to see how the commercial has adjusted this Friday. We already know the answer. Dow firm and closes 30,114, plus 333 points, while bonds leak 25 tics, 172.29.
Strange trade Monday, as I guess should be expected as we get into full on holiday mode. Wheat gives back all of Fridays gains to close 596 1/2, minus 18. Russian export offers trying to get ahead of a new export tax in February. Corn closes up 1/2 cent, 424, and that is with a few deliveries and Dec going off the board a little soft. I saw some decent rains in SA and beans still gain 9 to 1169 1/2, even with meal soft most of the day. Rice leaked a nickel to 1241 1/2 with spread roll being the feature yet again. Its surprising how long its been since there has been any rice options action. Funds don't want to gamble, and commercial knows there is enough inventory in farmer hands to keep his mills humming. Exporter doesn't want to pay current river freights, and that doesn't help the long term prospects. Moving to march in the Dow, we peeked at highs early but spent the rest of the day fading, 29,781, off 154 points and bonds looked lower but rallied back to close up one tic, 173.22.
Friday trade has wheat leading the way, 614 1/2, plus another 18. On Tuesday of last week wheat was a 570 product. This all goes back to Russia. Big crop and trying to shut off exports because of internal food inflation ? Same story with China. Supposed OK crops but massive internal food inflation and big imports. Communism and transparency are diametrically opposed institutions. World grain numbers, including wheat, can get very tight when you exclude the supply numbers china presents as fact. Why I always run my numbers ex china. Corn follows for 2 1/4 to 423 1/2. Meal up $3 and beans gain 7 3/4 to 1160 1/2. Rice picks up 7 as well, 1247. Back up to the area in rice where the sellers seem to be willing to operate. Dow looked lower thru the day Friday but really just another churn day for the computers, 30,033, plus 23 points on the close. Monday will shift to march for Dow trade. Bonds gain 6 tics, 173.21. Monday is last trading day of all DEC Ag, and I would hope no one is still in Dec anyway.
Big build up to Thursdays WASDE report, and the result was a punt. And a poor one at that. Reports like these are either bullish, or bearish, and neutral is considered bearish. We all know the government will have to raise bean and corn exports, or else stop the ships that have left harbor and let no new ones in. China imports lead the rumor mill for wheat, but make no mistake, Russia threatening to withhold wheat from the global market is what is really in play. Apparently, food inflation in their domestic market is putting pressure on the top. Wheat up 13 1/4 on the day, 596 1/2. Beans were strong going into the report but a punt on the numbers gave the bears some rope and we broke to 1152 3/4, off 5 3/4. Corn basically churned and gave up 2 1/2 to close 421 1/4. Range trade. Rice up 3 1/2 on spread roll, lack of sellers for the day, but a bearish report. 1240 close. Dow churns again, 30010, off 53. Bonds gain a full point to 173.15.
Wednesday Ag trade erases all of Tuesdays drop, and did it without a pop in OI. Impressive. Corn bounces 4 to 423 3/4. Beans pop 12 3/4 to 1158 1/2, with meal looking like it found a floor, and over 7K net Jan bean liquidation on 20K of roll. Solid. Wheat runs for 13 1/4 to 583 1/4. Some China stories floating around again about china in the wheat, flash sales in corn, and the bean bounce came with better weather stories out of SA. Rice in roll trade, 1236 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Mills are still running as hard as they can to catch up the domestic pipeline. It is amazing just how gutted the pipeline really was, in spite of the USDA numbers. Speaking of, all eyes await what should be a routine export sales report in the am, and WASDE at 11.
Soft Tuesday trade as the bean market is signalling that most of the current china demand has been priced. Beans close off 12 3/4 cents, 1145 3/4. Meal off $5 as a drag to beans. Corn slips 4 1/4 to 419 3/4, and wheat is 7 1/2 lower, 570. Rice picks up a couple in roll trade, 1233. Dow looked lower early but churn trade continues as we bounce 113 to close 30,170. Bonds up 17 tics, 173.02.
Really weird trade Monday to read. Early bean seller not there long and market shows strength thru most of the day. Its a given that the seller would show late, and buyers let them push. Savvy commercial move if it was, but a change in the way they have played the game if so. Its almost bait for the funds to press Tuesday down, like a bear trap. Don't want to read too much into one day, but just maybe we have seen a change in the level of play. 1158 1/2, off 4 1/2 and a dime off the high of the day. Wheat finds a small footing and gains a couple to 577 1/2. Corn up 3 1/2 to 424. Rice bear met by solid buying early and we close up 8 1/2 cents, 1231. Rice had sellers posted above, so we might be getting boxed in. Dow churn worked from the short side all day, closing off 141 points, 30,057. We couldn't hold 30K except they juiced the market in the last 10 minutes. Prints a prettier picture in time, but that time will already be expired when you read this. Bonds up 28 tics, 172.17.
Friday trade has the Dow leading the bullish side, 30,198, plus 266, and finally over the 30K target. Bonds drop a point and 7 tics, 171.21. Shining light in grains was oats, with all old crop now over $3. On the floor, we use to always say, always leading, never lying. Of course in this recent rally, oats have been late to the game. Worth watching. Wheat closes 575 1/2, on its lows, off 9. Rice drops a dime, 1222 1/2, as part of the spread roll is liquidating long positions. Meal soft Friday weighing on beans, 1163, minus 5 1/4, and corn drops 6 to 420 1/2. The week definitely did some technical damage. Don't loose track of the fact that we are trading the beginning of holiday mentality while at the same time prepping for an expected dull WASDE on the 10th. I don't think it would take much to make WASDE exciting.
Thursday morning export sales had a little something for everyone, and put the brakes on the bean skid. Beans bounced 15 1/2 at the end of a firm day to close 1168 1/4. Corn up another 2 3/4 as well, 426 1/2. US corn is still the worlds cheap feed grain. Wheat slipped 4 cents, 584 1/2. Rice roll still the feature as we leak back down to 550 a bushel, with 12 1/2 cents off today, 1232 1/2. Dow looked over 30K again but settled 29,932, plus 64 points, as the bonds bounce 23 tics, 172.28.
|
Archives
April 2024
|
Services |
Company |
|