Decent enough export report in the morning gave Thursday a bid, and we are looking to get back to last Friday prices. Corn up 5 1/2 to 591 1/4. Wheat gets a much needed 14 1/2 cent bounce, 770 1/2. Beans gain 14 3/4 to 1277 1/4 as oil finds a floor. SA hot and dry should be the feature for the next couple weeks. Rice up 13 1/2 and the seller seems to be getting full, or at least he is backing off on the pressure. Fert prices are not helping planting prospects and freight is putting a floor on domestic demand. Dow off 25 in a churn trade, 35,791, and bonds pick up 12 tics, 162.04.
Weather bull story out of Australia for Wednesday trade isn't carrying the water for wheat, and we are off another 31 cents to 756. Weather bull story out of SA is working for beans, 1262 1/2, up 3 and holding Tuesday gains. Corn loses 4 1/2 to 585 3/4, and rice off 11 cents, 1361, but appears more vs cash as rice business is getting done in the middle of the roll this time. Dow pops on fed speak 368 points, 35,816, and bonds leak 15 tics, 161.24.
Only real feature Tuesday was the commercial clearly stating, don't sell meal. That's our job only. Rest assured, most computers got the message. Meal strength brought beans along for 15 1/2 cents, 1259 1/2. Corn had a bounce back to 590 1/4. Managed money has a lot of corn longs, and the grower is slow to sell this year because of input costs. Weather in SA also making the rounds as it normally does this time of year. Wheat off 1 3/4 to 787, and rice slips 5 1/2 to 1372. Another slug of rice vs cash appears to have traded as we are at a price point where the commercial seems more happy to own. Churn in the Dow, 35,448, off 95 points, and bonds slip 8 tics, 162.07.
Monday a bit of a risk off financial trade even though nothing big happened over the weekend. More rains than expected in SA putting pressure on the beans. Meal and oil a bit softer as beans drop 23 3/4 to 1244. Must have been one heck of a rain. Corn off a nickel, but still 585. Rice off a nickel as well and it looked like the seller threw some more positions at the market hoping the end of the year gets some to leave the show, giving him a way out. 1377 1/2. Wheat gets a 3 1/2 cent bounce to 788 3/4 as the recent big drop has stabilized and new business is stirring up the European markets a bit. March Dow off 332 to 35,543 and march bonds gain a point and 5 tics, 162.15.
Dow firm all day Friday and up 214 points to end the week 35,967. Bonds up a tic, 162.28. Will be switching to March futures in the financials as of Monday. Meal again the strong leg as oil gets unwound, and beans follow meal lead for 3 1/4 cents, 1267 3/4. The crush is making money, the farmer, not as much. Wheat gets a 8 1/2 cent bounce, 785 1/4. Rice bear is going to have to bring new bullets next week, 1382 1/2. plus 2 1/2. Corn leaks 1 3/4 to 590, but its still 590.
Thursday exports were OK, but the WASDE report was a total punt. Corn sales ultimately brought a bid there, 591 3/4, up 4 1/2. Between Mexico continued buying, high fert prices, and dry stories out of SA, that market probably has the best bid on the floor for now. Beans picked up 3 1/2 to 1264 1/2 on a meal bid. Rice closed off 2 cents, 1380 but the bear doesn't seem to want to push any more. Wheat down again, 776 3/4, off 17 3/4 as global markets ease. Dow in a quiet catch your breath day, 35,753, up 7 points, while bonds gain back 15 tics, 162.27.
Wednesday had beans regain Tuesday drop, 1261, up 10 3/4. Corn was listless, 587 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Wheat dropped 14 and looked ugly doing it, 794 1/2. Rice off 9 1/2 to 1382 as the short continues to push. Dow churned up and down, 35,746, for a small 33 point gain at the end, while bonds leaked another point and 12 tics to 162.12. As a reference, bonds rallied from 162 last Monday nearly 4 full points and now back to basically unchanged. Definition of holiday churn, just a different market. That's why its dangerous to read anything into any one day or shot period right now. WASDE at 11.
Tuesday trade subdued in the Ag room, with corn up 2 1/2 to 586 and wheat gaining 2 1/4 cents, 808 1/2. Beans were off 11 1/4 to 1250 1/4, and rice closed 1391 1/2, off 11. Dow popped up 501 points more, 35,713, leaving a lot of room underneath for a back and fill type trade, and bonds leaked 20 tics, 163.15. WASDE Thursday and year end book cleaning will be the feature for the next 2 weeks.
No meltdowns over the weekend and Dow lights up Monday for 646 points to 35,212. Three of the last 5 days have had a 600 point closing move. Can you say bigger churn. Bonds drop a point and 20 to 164.03. To be honest, I'm glad to see the bond drop. At least it looks less engineered. Quiet corn day, 583 1/2, off 1/2. Beans slip 5 3/4 to 1261 1/2. Wheat up 2 1/2 to 806 1/4. Rice off 4 cents, 1402 1/2. Seems like traders are just looking to clean the books and wait for Santa, but we do have a WASDE report Thursday.
Friday closed 23 stronger in beans with both products solid, especially meal. 1267 1/4. Corn held its early strength as well, 584, plus 7 1/4, but just a couple cents better than Monday's soft close. Really just a churn week if you step back from the front lines. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1406 1/2 and acts like its tired of going down. Wheat just couldn't get it going, 803 3/4, off 11 1/4. Dow had a 500 point churning range and closed off 56 points, 34,566, while Dec bonds gained another point and 26 tics, 165.23. I will stress again, the biggest money in the world isn't signaling long term inflation.
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