Thursday morning opened with strong exports in beans as expected from flash sales and decent wheat and corn numbers. Rice soft again. Beans having a hard time up here though and fade 8 3/4 by the end of the day to 1473 1/2. More Russia talk and Ukraine thinks Russia will attack Kiev soon. Corn up 3 cents, 653 1/2, and wheat gains 8 to 757 1/4. Rice bear funds added 300 to open interest, 1663 1/2. Off a dozen, so they got paid a bit for their trouble which should keep them coming back. Dow pounded for 803 points, 33,436, while bonds gain 29 tics, 132.02.
Ag room Wednesday tried to look a bit lower but mostly a good day to do anything else. Beans up 2 1/2 to 1482 1/4 for the win. Meal got a bit of a bid out of dry Argy forecasts. Wheat off 1 1/2 to 749 1/4 and corn down 3 cents, 650 1/2. Apparently, some Ukraine port needs bombed every day to keep a bid. Tough weekend to go home short wheat with the cold front moving thru. Rice down a penny, 1765 1/2. FED raised rates 1/2 a point as broadcast, and we got a 700-point Dow range but off only 149 points to end 34,239. Bonds give up 2 little tics, 131.05.
Early morning Dow up nearly 1000 points on a less inflationary number, opens 800 higher and fades thru the day, still 119 points higher, 34,388 and now with a giant hole they can use to churn in the coming days. Bonds close 131.07, up a point and 18 tics and signaling that the big money thinks the recession/depression is in the bag. Monday/Tuesday trade in beans as we regain 19 1/4 to 1479 3/4. Meal didn't come along and buying Argy weather vs Brazil exports will be a fool's folly soon enough. Corn and wheat tried to follow thru and couldn't with corn off 1/2 cent at the end, 653 1/2, and wheat giving back 4 to 750 3/4. Rice up 6 cents, 1676 1/2. Hope the bulls make one more run at it this year. When I see action like we did on the Dow chart today, I would like to remind you yet again that desperate funds will try desperate trades to try to keep money for next year. Don't get churned. The sidelines really can be a nice place to watch the show.
Monday trade just a reset to realign outsized moves from last week. Moving forward both financials will be in March, with the Dow getting Fridays break back and more, 34,269, plus 529 points while bonds just churned, 129.21, off 8 tics. Meal fell 23 dollars from a lofty level to a lower lofty price and beans dropped 23 1/4 to 1460 1/2. Russia lobbed a few missiles over the weekend, as they are in a war that's what you do in a war. Corn bounced a dime, 654, while wheat recovered 20 1/2 cents, 754 3/4. Remind me when we talk to go over Turkey a little closer. Rice off a penny, 1670 1/2, and open interest might go down to a 6000 handle for the first time in a very long time on this spread roll and year end liquidation.
Friday WASDE report a buildup to nothing. Computers trying to make people make emotional moves to churn by year end so lets try to not be emotional. Corn up 1 1/2 to 644 and wheat hit for a dozen, 734 1/2. Cash corn says either we don't have as big of a crop as the USDA thinks or the farmer hasn't had the bank force him to sell yet. Funds are a big short wheat and getting bigger. Smaller bullish news could have bigger effects in what is a thin and getting thinner market as we approach the new year. Beans close 1483 3/4 after trying and failing near the buck, off 2 1/2. That's with $470 meal that the world can't really afford but some fund can. 23K open interest meal increase on the week. Those are Michael Jordan numbers. Other than video games, he don't play no more. Rice off 4 to 1671 1/2 and new fund selling is not working, options 3 way bullish trades for another 150 contracts as well. No reason to be short rice futures for most, at least for now. Dec Dow settled like a dog, 33,498, off 305 and bonds lost a point and 3 tics, 129.29. Last Friday we settled 129.27. Give or take full point settlement changes every day thru the week for 2 tics net. This is year end churn. Don't get caught in year end churn. In anything.
Thursday exports solid again in beans and ok for rice for a change, soft everywhere else. Meal bumping against 470 is not sustainable in the global or domestic market and oil is trying to base allowing another 14 1/4 cent rally in beans, 1486 1/4. WASDE today better be at least a punt. At some point very soon, we are going to switch from Argy weather to Brazil harvest. Wheat slips 3 1/4 to 746 1/4 and corn up 1 1/4 to 642 1/2 in a nothing day of trade. Rice works both sides of unchanged and the sellers aren't getting paid for their new shorts right now, 1675 1/2, plus 4 1/2. Dow got a 178-point bounce, 33803, and bonds gave back 30 ill-gotten tics, 131 even.
Midweek trade mostly prepping for the next 2 days information drops. Export sales and WASDE in ag, as well as yearend book cleaning will be the fuel. Wheat getting an oversold bounce, 749 1/2, plus 20 1/2, while corn comes along for 4 to 641 1/4. Beans up 17 to 1472 and the funds are adding longs. Rice off another 13 1/2 to 1671 as the funds who previously added longs are still getting shook out for a loss. Dow off 8 in a churn day, 33,625, while bonds rocket up another point and 17 tics, 131.30. I don't know if this is a buy the rumor sell the fact in front of the fed meeting or flight to quality in front of bad news yet to be released to the commoner.
We booked several cargoes of soy into China Tuesday morning and meal is strong off Argentina weather issues. Beans up 17 1/4 to 1455 and some still thing $15 is possible. I think we are struggling up here and there is more space to the downside on any negative news. Wheat off another dime, 729, but funds are continuing to add to an already large short position and not getting paid nearly as well for it. Corn slips 3 1/4 to 637 1/4. Rice drops another 19 cents, 1684 1/2. Dow was off over 500 more but got propped up late to close 33,633, still off 353 points. We might have broke enough for now as Powell will speak tomorrow, raise rates 50 basis points, and signal the Fed is slowing down. All this is already known, but that wont stop the computers from churning us right back up. Bonds up a point and 19 tics to 130.13 and in my opinion is the canary in the coal mine that at some point the Dow has another spanking coming.
Monday trade had financials leading everything lower, with the Dow off 473 points, 33,986, and switching to March bonds, off 31 tics, 128.26. Australia and Russia wheat crop are big and getting bigger, dragging wheat down another 22 cents, 739. Funds are getting biggly short at the CBOT, but so far they are winning. Corn following and ethanol soft, 640 1/2, minus 5 3/4. With basis so strong I'm not in a big hurry to chase corn down here. Beans looked higher on the back of meal getting silly strong but settled back to 1437 3/4, off 3/4. Rice got pummeled for 60 cents to 1703 1/2. Don't be in a hurry to catch the knife without looking at the recent charts. We have been 75 cents cheaper just a month and a half ago.
Friday trade opened with a bearish jobs report hitting financials and follow thru bean oil liquidation dragging the grain room. Dow opened off 400 but upside pull went on all day and we closed up 30 points, 34,459. Bonds were off over a full point but also recovered to 9 tics better, 129.27. More bean Oil liquidation (funds net long 105,000 contracts) put pressure on the soy complex but meal and beans fully recovered. 1438 1/2 beans were 8 3/4 higher. March Corn has rolled over on the back of some pretty small deliveries, 646 1/4, off 14 1/4 and the Dec/March spread out to 15 cents, while march wheat drops 22 to 761. Carry markets bring fund selling and that's what I believe we are seeing, a reset to the funds algorithms. Rice dead and low volume but leaked 16 lower just with a lack of any buyers, 1763 1/2.
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