Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Tuesday

12/31/2024

 
End of the year dressing pretty calm but across the grains positive with corn up 6 1/4 cents, 458 1/2 while wheat gained 3 1/4 to 551 1/2.  Seemed so hard to close above 550 when initially I thought quite some time ago that 550 would make a solid floor.    Beans back over the buck with March closing 1010 1/2, plus 18 3/4.  March rice up 26 to 1410 and a big fund rice short has to wonder if he dug too deep a hole.  Dow was happy to just be stable, 42,873, minus 54 points while bonds slip 8 tics, 113.27.  

Monday

12/30/2024

 
As we wind down the trading year Monday and set up for first notice in Jan beans in rice, beans come out of the box strong on continued lack of moisture in Argentina but fade thru the day to only 2 better in the March, 991 3/4.  We got decent deliveries across the soy complex this morning as expected and will be using March futures moving forward.  Jan rice pushed down to 1361 and March closed off a dime, 1384.  We received no rice deliveries and there is under 400 open interest left in Jan.  Unless there is some funny business, I will be using March moving forward in rice as well.  Corn slipped 1 3/4 to 452 1/4 and wheat gained 1 3/4 to 548 1/4.  Funds have a pretty sizable long in corn and now short 95K of wheat.  Thats a big bet for a little contract.  Its paid so far.  Dow needed a 300-point bounce to still close off 417 points, 42,927 and bonds gain 26 tics, 114.03.  Tuesday is an abbreviated session and don't be surprised to see some outsized marks for the end of year bonus or tax purposes.  

Friday

12/27/2024

 
Dow kind of a dog Friday, off 358 points and keeping everything paused.  Corn eked out a 1/4 cent gain, 454.  Wheat picked up another 5 1/2 to 546 1/2.  Golbally competitive and no real surplus expected so viable.  980 beans off 8 cents to pin the options at expiration.  Rice seller still at it as we approach Jan deliveries, 1376, minus 15 1/2.    Bonds drop 21 tics, 113.09.  

Thursday

12/26/2024

 
Day after Christmas mostly bid as corn gains another 5 1/4 to 453 3/4 and wheat up 6 1/4 cents, 541 as well.  We are still competitive in global corn trade.  Meal strong and beans pop 12 3/4 to 988.  Rice the laggard with what appears to be continual fund selling, 1391 1/2, minus 13 1/2.  Dow got better on the day to close 57 points higher, 43,702 and bonds added 2 tics, 113.30. 

Tuesday

12/24/2024

 
Tuesday pre-Christmas shortened trade had a coast mode.  Corn up 3/4 to 448 1/2. Beans recover 5 3/4 to 975 1/4.  Rice up 4 cents, 1405 with the fund selling more with no benefit.  Wheat did slip 5 3/4 to 534 3/4.  Dow popped 326 points with little resistance, 43,645 and bonds gained 10 tics, 113.28.  

Monday

12/23/2024

 
Monday trade to start Christmas week with Tuesday done at noon, no trade Wednesday and Thursday and Friday normal hours.  Wheat trying again to base and we get a 7 1/2 cent bounce, 540 1/2.  Corn holds Friday and gains another 1 1/2 to 447 3/4.  Beans give back a nickel in a day that seemed a lot worse than it was.  969 1/2.  Rice trade to lows at 1369 but rejected it and the fund seller now has accumulated a much bigger position at a much lower price, 1401 settle, off only 6 1/2.  Dow got dressed up from the daily lows, 43,319, plus 3 points and bonds dropped 30 tics, 113.18.

Friday

12/20/2024

 
Nice bounce back in corn Friday to end the week at 446 3/4, plus 5 1/2 on the day.  Wheat looked a little lower early but stalled and recovered to 533, unchanged.  Meal gained 10 bucks and beans rally 11 1/2 to 974 1/2.  Rice has what appears to be an aggressive fund short seller, 1407 1/2, off another 33 1/2.  We are on the cusp of making every expiring Jan. put in the money, and I can't see who would deliver $14 rice in January, especially with milling yields where they are and the river wanting anything that would mill at board terms.  The next 10-15 days in rice is going to be choppy and thin.  At some point the trap will get sprung.  Dow up 519 points, 43,316 after an 1150-point range and bonds recover 15 tics, 114.16.    

Thursday

12/19/2024

 
I liked everything I saw in Exports Thursday morning and after a lower trade Wednesday night, looks like the market is finding some kind of footing.  Beans saw a new contract low at 945 but recovered nicely, 963 close, up 11 1/4.  Big long liquidation drop in open interest, like a capitulation flush.  Time will tell.  Same story in meal.  Wheat printed a new low as well but less enthusiasm in the recovery, 533, still off 8 1/4.  Corn bids back in play and the farmer is a reluctant seller while the world seems to be a happy buyer, 440 3/4, plus 3 1/2.  Rice is a different story.  1441, minus 40 1/2 as the buyers retreat and it appears that a fund has decided to push to the downside.  The positive to this trade now is it should help us clear more inventory to exports.  Dow stalled after the midweek collapse, 42,797, plus 19 points while bonds drop another point and a tic, 114.01.  

Wednesday

12/18/2024

 
Ugly hump day in the grain room.  Beans lead the path down to new lows, 951 3/4, off 25 cents.  Corn off 6 1/4 to 437 1/4 and wheat down 3 3/4 to 541 1/4.  Rice scale down buying sated for the day and we dropped 16 1/2 cents, 1481 1/2.   Dow dumped after Powell cut rates as expected, 42,778, minus 1189 points.  Ouch.  Bonds off another point and 11 tics, 115.02.  This is monetary contraction on a big scale.  I think hidden in the FED notes is some cleaning up of their balance sheet, which means they need us to buy what they don't want to hold anymore.  

Tuesday

12/17/2024

 
Kind of a doggy pre-holiday trade Tuesday as the funds seem to be looking to see who is out there to support the markets.  Corn slipped 1 1/2 to 443 1/2 while wheat dropped a nickel, 545.  Beans posted a new low at 970 before recovering to 976 3/4 for a 5 1/4 cent lower close.  Rice still dead other than spread roll, 1498, plus 3.  Dow was off another 293 points, 43967 as we erase the premium paid to roll long positions and bonds gained 7 tics in basing action, 116.13.  
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