Tuesday

After a long weekend and harvests starting farther north, we had a softer but mixed bag in Tuesday futures.  Disease pressure and some disappointing beans out there really probably gave us a better floor than I feared.  Another factor that makes me believe the USDA is too high is the supposed lack of fungicide spend because of low prices showing up in field issues today.  These are all issues for post-harvest review, but for now I think it's safe to say we have a big crop but the old adage that big crops get bigger might not be in play.  Nov beans lost 13 1/2 to end the day at 1041.  Wheat off 6 cents, 528 1/4 and corn recovered its early losses and gained 2 3/4 to close 423.  Nov rice off a dozen cents, 1205.  In overnight deliveries Term dumped their beans receipts and we had new registrations in rice.  Dow off 250 points, 45,351, but that was a lot better than it looked early, while Dec bonds drop 26 tics, 113.14.  So, it cost 1/2 a point to roll your sept bonds to Dec and all the talk of FED rate eases isn't moving the needle down the yield curve.  This bears closer attention moving forward.