Every settle Friday should be held with some level of suspect. Oats have rolled over but still 365. Wheat off another 12 cents, 651 1/4 and nearly half a buck off Wednesday high. It's safe to say Russia won't have quite the inventory to flood the market this year like last so I'd also like to think we have a higher floor than last year. Corn following oats and wheat lower, 452 1/2, off 4 1/2. Fund Commitments in short corn and wheat now down to reasonable numbers. Beans up 11 3/4 to 1228 and SA weather (flooding south and Dry second crop north) is surely having an effect, at least on fund shorts. Interestingly, commitments didn't show much more bean covering from the funds last week. July rice off 34 1/2 with some late pressure to push the weekly close? 1875 1/2. There's not that much old crop rice left out there, But as I was brutally reminded many years ago, if there's one bushel no one wants, it ain't worth too much. Dow got a pretty dress on a quiet day, 40,137, plus 127 points while bonds leaked 19 tics, 117.10.
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Nothing exciting in exports Thursday morning and I think the markets just wanted to catch their breath and find an equilibrium to work forward with. Corn was off 5 1/2 to 457 but seemed to be finding a floor down there after this move lower. Wheat tried to recover the last couple days break but faded 18 cents from the highs to 663 1/4, minus 2 1/2. Beans up 2 3/4 to 1216 1/4 even with weak meal, but again, meal seemed to be basing. Rice traded down to 1883 early but a nice bounce got us back to only a penny lower, 1910. Dow off 29 points in a pretty tight range, 40,010 and bonds slip 5 tics, 117.29.
Interesting feature Wednesday was loose money in the financials that I kept waiting to spill into Ags but didn't. Dow up 362 points, 40,039 and bonds gain a full point and 9 tics, 118.02. Excitement in the grain room, nada. Corn off another nickel, 462 1/2. Beans off a penny, 1213 1/2. Wheat makes another shot at 7 bucks, dies at 697 and fades to 665 3/4, minus 6 3/4 at the end of the day. Thats a bit ugly. July rice did pop 20 1/2 cents, 1911 now that the bull doesn't have to contend with new deliveries. I still question why many would care to be in July rice futures.
Tuesday action more of a Monday/Tuesday trade than a trend buster to me. Corn off a nickel, 467 1/2 and Beans slip a nickel as well, 1214 1/2. Wheat off 14 1/2 and maybe a bit tired of the recent run. Rice gets an 18-cent bounce, 1890 1/2 but seems like some late marking going on in new crop. Pretty quiet small up day in financials with bonds gaining 13 tics, 116.25 and the Dow up 118 points, 39,677.
Monday trade mostly follow thru from Friday action. Wheat was the big winner gaining 23 1/2 cents, 687. Corn followed to 472 1/2, plus 2 3/4. Beans traded both sides and settled 1/2 better, 1219 1/2. Thin rice took it in the chin, 1872 1/2, off 64. Pretty quiet day in financials with the Dow leaking 83 points, 39,559 and bonds up 10 tics, 116.12.
WASDE Friday had a friendly surprise to corn stocks and the market responded with a nice 13 1/4 cent bounce, 469 3/4. I didn't get anything bullish out of bean numbers, but oil was strong, and beans closed up 10 1/2 to 1219. Wheat gained 26 cents, 663 1/2 and I believe this wheat rally has global fingerprints. Rice up 57 cents in a very thin and liquidating July trade, 1936 1/2. There are times when what we are trading is just a marker and really, we are just trading money. Most farmers should be out of rice and very few should be trading money. Dow ends the week up another 106 points, 39,642 and bonds leak 22 tics, 116.02. Loose money should probably stay in play thru the election.
Exports Thursday morning really didn't have any surprises and markets each went their own way in front of Fridays WASDE report. Wheat has a frost/freeze angle out of Russia and gained 3 1/2 cents, 637 1/2. Was stronger on the day but bean fade had some spillover. Soy off 19 1/4 to 1208 1/2. Corn slips a couple to 456 1/2. Really not a bad showing for corn. Rice got a nice bounce, 1879 1/2, plus 35 1/2. Loose money still pushing the Dow 341 points higher, 39,536 and bonds gain 13 tics, 116.24.
Tired trade again Wednesday as we await exports Thursday and WASDE Friday. Soy down 18 3/4 to 1227 3/4. Corn loses 8 1/2 cents, 458 1/2 and wheat drops 8 3/4 to 634. Rice stable and quiet, 1844, plus a nickel. More loose money into equities with the Dow up 168 points, 39,195 and bonds give back 11 tics, 116.11.
Not sure if trade in the grain room was Monday/Tuesday action or the market running out of steam. I'm leaning towards it being tired. Corn slips a coupe cents, 467 and wheat is off 6 to 642 3/4. Beans give back 2 1/4 to 1246 1/2. Rice can't get a bounce, 1839, down another 17 1/2. Dow quiet and up 30 at the close, 39,027 while bonds gain another 15 tics, 116.22.
We made it thru a weekend with some talk of stability if not truce in the middle east, dryness persisting in second crop Brazil corn acres along with far too much rain in southern Brazil and Argentina for the beans. European wheat appears to have found a solid base off of better Russian pricing for the wheat. Funds driving meal to what I consider stupid levels helps beans gain 33 3/4 to 1248 3/4. Corn up 8 3/4 cents, 469 and wheat pops 26 1/4 to 648 3/4. Rice still just acting tired, 1856 1/2, off 28 1/2. Dow finds more loose money for a 165-point gain, 38,997 and bonds pick up another 9 tics, 116.07.
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