Todays thoughts.
12/31
The last trading day of the year went off with a whimper. Corn off 1/2 to 387 3/4. Wheat gains 2 3/4 to 558 3/4 with what is getting to be a measurable long spec. Rice up 2 1/2 cents, 1328 1/2, with what by any measure is a very large spec long. Beans gain 3 to close out the year at 955 1/2. Dow up 68 points, 28,508, and bonds off 11 tics, 155.29
The last trading day of the year went off with a whimper. Corn off 1/2 to 387 3/4. Wheat gains 2 3/4 to 558 3/4 with what is getting to be a measurable long spec. Rice up 2 1/2 cents, 1328 1/2, with what by any measure is a very large spec long. Beans gain 3 to close out the year at 955 1/2. Dow up 68 points, 28,508, and bonds off 11 tics, 155.29
12/30
Corn was off 1 3/4 to 388 1/4 in another holiday trade. Wheat off 1/4 cent, 556. March beans up 11 to 952 1/2 as we deliver Jan to current overnight with deliveries scattered. Same story in oil deliveries, which should take some of the fuel away from the oil leg of the crush. FC Stone stopped most of the Bunge meal, with old enough dates that they knew what they were doing. Jan rice off 6 1/2 but march closed 1326, plus 8 1/2, as the spread craps to carry. Dow of 170 to 28440, and bonds drop 21 tics, 156.08. Should sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement next week. Wonder what the delay tactic will be this time?
Corn was off 1 3/4 to 388 1/4 in another holiday trade. Wheat off 1/4 cent, 556. March beans up 11 to 952 1/2 as we deliver Jan to current overnight with deliveries scattered. Same story in oil deliveries, which should take some of the fuel away from the oil leg of the crush. FC Stone stopped most of the Bunge meal, with old enough dates that they knew what they were doing. Jan rice off 6 1/2 but march closed 1326, plus 8 1/2, as the spread craps to carry. Dow of 170 to 28440, and bonds drop 21 tics, 156.08. Should sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement next week. Wonder what the delay tactic will be this time?
12/27
Friday options trade a bit of a surprise as beans drop 8 1/4 to 929 1/2, taking the 940 pin away and plugging a bunch of 930 positions. OI dropped 23K contracts in beans and meal was off $4 as well. Be interesting if this was a computer churn or there is a change in sentiment. My gut says it was more of a computer algorithm sensing weakness. Corn up 1 1/2 to 390. Wheat jumps another 7 1/4 to 556 1/4. Rice pops 15 1/2 to 1303 with more vs cash and Jan OI down to 1100. Big volume again and total OI dropped 100. Short Stops giving up. Dow was quiet and off 9 points, 28,610. Bonds gain 14 tics to 156.29. Delivery notice starts on Mondays close for the Jan futures contracts.
Friday options trade a bit of a surprise as beans drop 8 1/4 to 929 1/2, taking the 940 pin away and plugging a bunch of 930 positions. OI dropped 23K contracts in beans and meal was off $4 as well. Be interesting if this was a computer churn or there is a change in sentiment. My gut says it was more of a computer algorithm sensing weakness. Corn up 1 1/2 to 390. Wheat jumps another 7 1/4 to 556 1/4. Rice pops 15 1/2 to 1303 with more vs cash and Jan OI down to 1100. Big volume again and total OI dropped 100. Short Stops giving up. Dow was quiet and off 9 points, 28,610. Bonds gain 14 tics to 156.29. Delivery notice starts on Mondays close for the Jan futures contracts.
12/26
More quiet holiday trade as corn regains its penny, 388 1/2, and beans up 1 1/4 to 937 3/4. Tomorrow options expiration has decent volume at 940 and 950. Up to the computers if they want to juice it or not. Wheat pops for 8 cents, 549. Rice bull took a break and we leaked 6 1/2 cents to 1287 1/2. Would take a pretty ugly day to get into any options tomorrow. Dow continues its melt up for 111 more points, 28,619. Bonds up 3 tics, 156.15.
More quiet holiday trade as corn regains its penny, 388 1/2, and beans up 1 1/4 to 937 3/4. Tomorrow options expiration has decent volume at 940 and 950. Up to the computers if they want to juice it or not. Wheat pops for 8 cents, 549. Rice bull took a break and we leaked 6 1/2 cents to 1287 1/2. Would take a pretty ugly day to get into any options tomorrow. Dow continues its melt up for 111 more points, 28,619. Bonds up 3 tics, 156.15.
12/24
Dead holiday trade as expected for Tuesday. Corn off 1 1/4 to 387 1/2. Rice and beans each gain 2 1/2 cents, 1294 and 936 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/2 for a 541 close. Dow quiet and off 42 points, 28,508, and the bonds up 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 156.12. Export sales should be on Friday with the holiday schedule.
Dead holiday trade as expected for Tuesday. Corn off 1 1/4 to 387 1/2. Rice and beans each gain 2 1/2 cents, 1294 and 936 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/2 for a 541 close. Dow quiet and off 42 points, 28,508, and the bonds up 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 156.12. Export sales should be on Friday with the holiday schedule.
12/23
Monday has quiet holiday trade, with corn up a penny, 388 3/4, and beans gaining 5 3/4 to 934. Meal was up $3 1/2 dollars. Wheat slipped another 2 3/4 to 539 1/2. Rice bull firing at the market again with another 144 added to OI, 183 vs cash, and total OI in Jan now under 1900. Market up 3 1/2 for his trouble, 1291 1/2. Have to give him credit for his consistency. And deep pockets. Dow still upwardly mobile, 28,550, plus 68, and bonds drop 12 tics to 155.28. Merry Christmas countdown has begun. The dog and cat don't understand the calendar and the concept of waiting until the 25th for their presents, and their noses are getting the better of them, and my wife's wrapping skills. It turns out bows are a play toy.
Monday has quiet holiday trade, with corn up a penny, 388 3/4, and beans gaining 5 3/4 to 934. Meal was up $3 1/2 dollars. Wheat slipped another 2 3/4 to 539 1/2. Rice bull firing at the market again with another 144 added to OI, 183 vs cash, and total OI in Jan now under 1900. Market up 3 1/2 for his trouble, 1291 1/2. Have to give him credit for his consistency. And deep pockets. Dow still upwardly mobile, 28,550, plus 68, and bonds drop 12 tics to 155.28. Merry Christmas countdown has begun. The dog and cat don't understand the calendar and the concept of waiting until the 25th for their presents, and their noses are getting the better of them, and my wife's wrapping skills. It turns out bows are a play toy.
12/20
Friday corn up 1 1/4 to 387 3/4. Funds are covering shorts, but still short 95K in commitments. Same story in beans, with a 3 3/4 cent bounce to 928 1/4. Basis is solid at the river and inland as well. Wheat off 3 cents, 542 1/4. Rice spec bull fires again adding another couple hundred longs to an already large position, 1288, plus 8 1/2. Another 122 vs cash. Dow pounding at new highs again, 28,482, up 81. Bonds off a tic as they mostly took the day off, 156.08. I don't see big down side to the grains in general, but remember, all next week is holiday trade, and then yearend marking of positions, which can at times be severe. Now is not the time to be taking hero bets unless someone gets genuinely stupid. We might get a layup or two on the last trading day.
Friday corn up 1 1/4 to 387 3/4. Funds are covering shorts, but still short 95K in commitments. Same story in beans, with a 3 3/4 cent bounce to 928 1/4. Basis is solid at the river and inland as well. Wheat off 3 cents, 542 1/4. Rice spec bull fires again adding another couple hundred longs to an already large position, 1288, plus 8 1/2. Another 122 vs cash. Dow pounding at new highs again, 28,482, up 81. Bonds off a tic as they mostly took the day off, 156.08. I don't see big down side to the grains in general, but remember, all next week is holiday trade, and then yearend marking of positions, which can at times be severe. Now is not the time to be taking hero bets unless someone gets genuinely stupid. We might get a layup or two on the last trading day.
12/19
Really solid export sales across the grain board put some who would have liked to push lower on Thursday on their heals. We mostly just stalled to catch a breath. Corn off 1/2 to 386 1/2. Beans down 4 cents, 924 1/2 with $4 weaker meal. Wheat slips 4 to 545 1/4. Rice exports weak but the bull keeps coming, 1279 1/2, plus a penny. More vs cash backing up one theory of basis as a put thru, and the Jan position disappearing quickly. Dow up 120 to 28,401, and bonds up 8 tics as well, 156.09.
Really solid export sales across the grain board put some who would have liked to push lower on Thursday on their heals. We mostly just stalled to catch a breath. Corn off 1/2 to 386 1/2. Beans down 4 cents, 924 1/2 with $4 weaker meal. Wheat slips 4 to 545 1/4. Rice exports weak but the bull keeps coming, 1279 1/2, plus a penny. More vs cash backing up one theory of basis as a put thru, and the Jan position disappearing quickly. Dow up 120 to 28,401, and bonds up 8 tics as well, 156.09.
12/18
Corn off 3 to close 387 as the 390 resistance holds. Beans chop and end off 1/4 cent, 928 1/2. Wheat drops 8 to 548 1/4 with a fair amount of air under if wanted to push. Rice bull back again and big spread trade leave us 10 1/2 higher, 1278 1/2. Computer seems to be getting full. Dow down 3 points in a dull day, 28,281. Bonds off 25 tics, 156.01.
Corn off 3 to close 387 as the 390 resistance holds. Beans chop and end off 1/4 cent, 928 1/2. Wheat drops 8 to 548 1/4 with a fair amount of air under if wanted to push. Rice bull back again and big spread trade leave us 10 1/2 higher, 1278 1/2. Computer seems to be getting full. Dow down 3 points in a dull day, 28,281. Bonds off 25 tics, 156.01.
12/17
Corn up another 2 to 390 and bumping the first level of resistance. Wheat gains 6 3/4 to 556 1/4 and spec bulls still getting longer. Short cover in beans drive 6 3/4 higher, 928 3/4. Bean oil still a strong feature globally. Rice spec long added 329 to open interest in a big volume day, 1268, up 7 1/2. Dow settling 21 higher, 28,284 and bonds give up a tic to 156.26.
Corn up another 2 to 390 and bumping the first level of resistance. Wheat gains 6 3/4 to 556 1/4 and spec bulls still getting longer. Short cover in beans drive 6 3/4 higher, 928 3/4. Bean oil still a strong feature globally. Rice spec long added 329 to open interest in a big volume day, 1268, up 7 1/2. Dow settling 21 higher, 28,284 and bonds give up a tic to 156.26.
12/16
Nothing fell apart in the trade deal over the weekend, so the bulls came Monday to own an underpriced grain market. Wheat bulls push us up 17 1/4 to 549 3/4. These are new longs in a market that is already long. Beans up 14 1/2 cents, 922, and meal is strong as well. Corn near the highs, 388, plus 7, and oats up 10 cents in the front. Dow only up 98 points and maybe running out of steam for this run, 28,263. Bonds off a point and 12 tics, 156.27.
Nothing fell apart in the trade deal over the weekend, so the bulls came Monday to own an underpriced grain market. Wheat bulls push us up 17 1/4 to 549 3/4. These are new longs in a market that is already long. Beans up 14 1/2 cents, 922, and meal is strong as well. Corn near the highs, 388, plus 7, and oats up 10 cents in the front. Dow only up 98 points and maybe running out of steam for this run, 28,263. Bonds off a point and 12 tics, 156.27.
12/13
Friday has the market adjusting to a much more likely china deal with corn up 3 1/4 to 381 and wheat gaining 2 1/4 cents, 532 1/2. Beans up 9 1/4 to 907 1/2 with short covering and meal finding some support. Rice spread roll continues and the spec long continues to add, 8 1/2 higher, 1251 1/2. Switching to march in the dow, 35 higher close, 28,165. Bonds up a point and 14 tics to 158.07, a bit of a surprise given that if china is really in for 40-50 billion of ag, we are in for an inflationary cycle in ag, and probably everything.
Friday has the market adjusting to a much more likely china deal with corn up 3 1/4 to 381 and wheat gaining 2 1/4 cents, 532 1/2. Beans up 9 1/4 to 907 1/2 with short covering and meal finding some support. Rice spread roll continues and the spec long continues to add, 8 1/2 higher, 1251 1/2. Switching to march in the dow, 35 higher close, 28,165. Bonds up a point and 14 tics to 158.07, a bit of a surprise given that if china is really in for 40-50 billion of ag, we are in for an inflationary cycle in ag, and probably everything.
12/12
Corn recovers all of yesterday to close 377 3/4, up 6 1/2. Funds sold 15K to break it, and only got 6k covered so far on the rally. Guess that didn't work for them. Rice just in a roll trade and unchanged, 1243. Beans up 4 3/4 to 898 1/4 with out any help from meal as basis gets reset. Wheat gains 11 cents, 530 1/4. Big story is a china deal and dow says this one will stick, up 207 points, 28,131. Bonds in agreement and dropping 2 full points and 4 tics to 156.25. If the 50 billion ag requirement for 2020 is true, we have opened a new set of problems, namely meeting that demand.
Corn recovers all of yesterday to close 377 3/4, up 6 1/2. Funds sold 15K to break it, and only got 6k covered so far on the rally. Guess that didn't work for them. Rice just in a roll trade and unchanged, 1243. Beans up 4 3/4 to 898 1/4 with out any help from meal as basis gets reset. Wheat gains 11 cents, 530 1/4. Big story is a china deal and dow says this one will stick, up 207 points, 28,131. Bonds in agreement and dropping 2 full points and 4 tics to 156.25. If the 50 billion ag requirement for 2020 is true, we have opened a new set of problems, namely meeting that demand.
12/11
Corn hit for 5 3/4 as the new fund selling (15K contracts) comes to the market, 371 1/4. So much for settling out the books for yearend. These boys are trying to make up for lost time. Or lost trades. Rice in quiet but weaker roll, 1243, minus 2. Beans drop 7 3/4 to 893 1/2, but they are down with 26K of weak longs hitting the sidelines. Meal soft as well. Expect a note on that in a bit. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 519 1/4 but with spreads bullish, I don't expect a wheat washout yet. Dow just a churn trade for a net 3 point gain, 27,924. Bonds up 27 as I switch to march futures, 158.29. Nothing to read into that move either, other than computers pushing the direction they think is easiest for the day.
Corn hit for 5 3/4 as the new fund selling (15K contracts) comes to the market, 371 1/4. So much for settling out the books for yearend. These boys are trying to make up for lost time. Or lost trades. Rice in quiet but weaker roll, 1243, minus 2. Beans drop 7 3/4 to 893 1/2, but they are down with 26K of weak longs hitting the sidelines. Meal soft as well. Expect a note on that in a bit. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 519 1/4 but with spreads bullish, I don't expect a wheat washout yet. Dow just a churn trade for a net 3 point gain, 27,924. Bonds up 27 as I switch to march futures, 158.29. Nothing to read into that move either, other than computers pushing the direction they think is easiest for the day.
12/10
Nothing report in grains as corn settles 1 1/4 higher, 377. Wheat up a penny to 523 3/4, and beans gain 4 cents with more china sales rumored, 901 1/4. Rice had a bullish report driven by increased sales and lower carry over, but settle 1245, unchanged on the day. Commercials across the board seem to be comfortable with their current supply situation thru year end, so I would not be surprised if we drift a little lower in all the grains, as they pick off the last of the year sellers. I would not recommend shorting the markets, as any unexpected business now has a sizable hole to fill to get priced, so the daily smaller bleeds would get all sucked up on one open. Times like these are why we own bins. Dow looked lower by a couple hundred, but popped back to 27,921, plus 19. Don't loose track of the fact that there is a hole down there now for the computers to fish in. Bonds up 3 tics, 158.28.
Nothing report in grains as corn settles 1 1/4 higher, 377. Wheat up a penny to 523 3/4, and beans gain 4 cents with more china sales rumored, 901 1/4. Rice had a bullish report driven by increased sales and lower carry over, but settle 1245, unchanged on the day. Commercials across the board seem to be comfortable with their current supply situation thru year end, so I would not be surprised if we drift a little lower in all the grains, as they pick off the last of the year sellers. I would not recommend shorting the markets, as any unexpected business now has a sizable hole to fill to get priced, so the daily smaller bleeds would get all sucked up on one open. Times like these are why we own bins. Dow looked lower by a couple hundred, but popped back to 27,921, plus 19. Don't loose track of the fact that there is a hole down there now for the computers to fish in. Bonds up 3 tics, 158.28.
12/06
Corn traded flat on Friday, 376 3/4. Rice up 1 1/2 with spread roll, 1231. Wheat quiet as well, up 3/4 cent, 524 1/2. Beans gained another 5 1/4 to 889 1/2 with more talk of china business and worries about the situation in Argentina. Meal was soft, off a couple dollars. Dow rocked 336 higher, 28,014 with a stellar jobs number opening up the top. Bonds off 22 to 158.14.
Corn traded flat on Friday, 376 3/4. Rice up 1 1/2 with spread roll, 1231. Wheat quiet as well, up 3/4 cent, 524 1/2. Beans gained another 5 1/4 to 889 1/2 with more talk of china business and worries about the situation in Argentina. Meal was soft, off a couple dollars. Dow rocked 336 higher, 28,014 with a stellar jobs number opening up the top. Bonds off 22 to 158.14.
12/05
Nothing exciting in exports and pretty quiet trade. Corn off 1 3/4 cents, 376 3/4. Wheat drops 3 3/4 to 523 3/4. Rice unchanged, 1229 1/2. No story. Beans were up 6 1/4 cents, 884 1/4 with stories out of Argentina of one of the major crushers having big financial difficulties. That fueled the meal for a 5 dollar rally from what was already a too cheap price. Dow just churned but closed up 35 points, 27,678. Bonds dropped 12 tics, 159.04.
Nothing exciting in exports and pretty quiet trade. Corn off 1 3/4 cents, 376 3/4. Wheat drops 3 3/4 to 523 3/4. Rice unchanged, 1229 1/2. No story. Beans were up 6 1/4 cents, 884 1/4 with stories out of Argentina of one of the major crushers having big financial difficulties. That fueled the meal for a 5 dollar rally from what was already a too cheap price. Dow just churned but closed up 35 points, 27,678. Bonds dropped 12 tics, 159.04.
12/04
Corn leaked 2 3/4 cents to 378 1/2 on a quiet day of nothing news. Wheat bounced 2 1/4 from yesterdays break, 527 1/2. Beans up 7 to 878 and meal gained a couple dollars. Rice off 4 for a 1229 1/2 close with little volume excluding the spread roll, and interestingly, almost pure offset for both sides. Short isn't going to wait until the last day hoping for 30 in this cycle. Dow got a 156 point bounce to 27,643 with nothing silly coming out of Europe, and nothing condemning out of the DC circus. Bonds gave back half of yesterdays gains, 159.16, minus a point and 12 tics. Exports in the morning. Not expecting any hero numbers.
Corn leaked 2 3/4 cents to 378 1/2 on a quiet day of nothing news. Wheat bounced 2 1/4 from yesterdays break, 527 1/2. Beans up 7 to 878 and meal gained a couple dollars. Rice off 4 for a 1229 1/2 close with little volume excluding the spread roll, and interestingly, almost pure offset for both sides. Short isn't going to wait until the last day hoping for 30 in this cycle. Dow got a 156 point bounce to 27,643 with nothing silly coming out of Europe, and nothing condemning out of the DC circus. Bonds gave back half of yesterdays gains, 159.16, minus a point and 12 tics. Exports in the morning. Not expecting any hero numbers.
12/03
Tuesday saw trump state that an agreement with china could be pushed back until after the elections, which should have hit the beans and corn, but nothing. Corn of 3/4 to 381 1/4 and beans gained 1/2 cent, 871 with meal up a dollar. Wheat drops a dime from lofty levels to 525 1/4, still pricy to me. Rice bull doesn't defend and we break 14 cents to 1233 1/2. Spread roll starting in real fashion. Dow was looking for an excuse to back off, and dropped 302 points to 27,487, and on queue, bonds rocket up 2 points and 22 tics. Merely a fleecing of trend followers by the computer.
Tuesday saw trump state that an agreement with china could be pushed back until after the elections, which should have hit the beans and corn, but nothing. Corn of 3/4 to 381 1/4 and beans gained 1/2 cent, 871 with meal up a dollar. Wheat drops a dime from lofty levels to 525 1/4, still pricy to me. Rice bull doesn't defend and we break 14 cents to 1233 1/2. Spread roll starting in real fashion. Dow was looking for an excuse to back off, and dropped 302 points to 27,487, and on queue, bonds rocket up 2 points and 22 tics. Merely a fleecing of trend followers by the computer.
12/02
Pretty dynamic Monday, led by new SA tariffs on metals by Trump, and nothing yet finished with China, even as were are told the first round of negotiations is being put to ink. December 15 is coming fast and the bull run in equities is sputtering. Dow off 284 to settle 27,789 while bonds drop another point and 18 tics. If the dow is over, bonds should be done with their break. Wheat gave back 6 1/2 cents of Fridays run, 535 1/4. Corn spreads are firming as interior cash prices have prevented deliveries against the Dec futures, and march corn settles 3/4 higher, 382. Pretty poor action in rice with 1600 traded and a penny lower for the effort, 1247 1/2. Beans off 6 1/4 to 870 1/2 with another 19K increase in short OI, but meal firm/higher, and ADM stopping all the meal receipts. Corn interest is up globally and SA is starting to run low with interior demands up, so I would expect any setbacks from here on in corn to be met with buying.
Pretty dynamic Monday, led by new SA tariffs on metals by Trump, and nothing yet finished with China, even as were are told the first round of negotiations is being put to ink. December 15 is coming fast and the bull run in equities is sputtering. Dow off 284 to settle 27,789 while bonds drop another point and 18 tics. If the dow is over, bonds should be done with their break. Wheat gave back 6 1/2 cents of Fridays run, 535 1/4. Corn spreads are firming as interior cash prices have prevented deliveries against the Dec futures, and march corn settles 3/4 higher, 382. Pretty poor action in rice with 1600 traded and a penny lower for the effort, 1247 1/2. Beans off 6 1/4 to 870 1/2 with another 19K increase in short OI, but meal firm/higher, and ADM stopping all the meal receipts. Corn interest is up globally and SA is starting to run low with interior demands up, so I would expect any setbacks from here on in corn to be met with buying.
11/29
Friday was a shortened trading day, but exposed some of the computer cracks. Wheat doesn't have carry in the spreads, so the perma short programs don't work, and are getting fleeced by other systems. Switching to march futures in corn and wheat. Wheat up 15 cents, 541 3/4. Corn gains 7 to 381 1/4, making all the noise early in the week moot. Rice up another 9 1/2 to 1248 1/2, but on declining OI. Beans the weak link with 11k new sellers pushing 5 1/4 lower, 876 3/4. Meal off $3 as well, and overdone. Dow pauses at 28,073, off 75, and bonds slip 11 to 159.24.
Friday was a shortened trading day, but exposed some of the computer cracks. Wheat doesn't have carry in the spreads, so the perma short programs don't work, and are getting fleeced by other systems. Switching to march futures in corn and wheat. Wheat up 15 cents, 541 3/4. Corn gains 7 to 381 1/4, making all the noise early in the week moot. Rice up another 9 1/2 to 1248 1/2, but on declining OI. Beans the weak link with 11k new sellers pushing 5 1/4 lower, 876 3/4. Meal off $3 as well, and overdone. Dow pauses at 28,073, off 75, and bonds slip 11 to 159.24.
11/27
Wednesday corn with forced pre delivery liquidation of longs to avoid delivery. 54K net open interest drop, and futures settling 362 3/4, off 4 3/4. Rice bull fund continuing and helping us farmers in the process to better, or at least reasonable prices, 1239, plus 15. Beans leak 2 1/4 to 882. Wheat off 1 3/4 cents, 528 1/2. Dow quiet and up 18 points, 28,148. and bonds drop 16 tics to 160.03. Happy Thanksgiving.
Wednesday corn with forced pre delivery liquidation of longs to avoid delivery. 54K net open interest drop, and futures settling 362 3/4, off 4 3/4. Rice bull fund continuing and helping us farmers in the process to better, or at least reasonable prices, 1239, plus 15. Beans leak 2 1/4 to 882. Wheat off 1 3/4 cents, 528 1/2. Dow quiet and up 18 points, 28,148. and bonds drop 16 tics to 160.03. Happy Thanksgiving.
11/26
Nothing Monday brought selling Tuesday and reports that Brazil will do nothing to defend the Real (their currency) put pressure across the board, especially beans. 884 1/4, off 8 1/4 and meal down $3.50. We are oversold in the beans, but when the computer keeps selling, buyers back up. Corn off 3 to 367 1/2. I think both of these grains are nearing longer term lows. Wheat looks lower after this recent rally, but closes only off 3/4 at 530 1/4. Not so anxious to own wheat here. New deliveries could put a damper in that game in a hurry. Dow up another 91 points, 28,130, and bonds run for 17 tics to 160.19. Wednesday close is first intention, so make sure you are out of any December contracts. Friday will be a short trade day.
Nothing Monday brought selling Tuesday and reports that Brazil will do nothing to defend the Real (their currency) put pressure across the board, especially beans. 884 1/4, off 8 1/4 and meal down $3.50. We are oversold in the beans, but when the computer keeps selling, buyers back up. Corn off 3 to 367 1/2. I think both of these grains are nearing longer term lows. Wheat looks lower after this recent rally, but closes only off 3/4 at 530 1/4. Not so anxious to own wheat here. New deliveries could put a damper in that game in a hurry. Dow up another 91 points, 28,130, and bonds run for 17 tics to 160.19. Wednesday close is first intention, so make sure you are out of any December contracts. Friday will be a short trade day.
11/25
Wheat the feature again, up 15 3/4 to 531. Wheat is usually a contract to sell rallies in, but with march oats quietly trading 320, I'm wondering if we have a canary in the coalmine about all these supposed global surpluses of grain. Worth watching these next few weeks. Corn above 370 to poke the new options shorts, but not much steam in the trade. Nothing day in the rice as commercial is covered thru the holiday, and hoping for new selling after the bird is done. 1219 1/2, up 1 1/2. Beans off 4 1/2 with new shorts in the mix, 892 1/2. My grain in the bin doesn't really care right now about what a computer model says this week. Dow pushes up another 177 to 28,039 and bonds hold firm, 160.02, plus 6 tics. I really don't expect much trade this week. Better to spend your time and energy on farm and family.
Wheat the feature again, up 15 3/4 to 531. Wheat is usually a contract to sell rallies in, but with march oats quietly trading 320, I'm wondering if we have a canary in the coalmine about all these supposed global surpluses of grain. Worth watching these next few weeks. Corn above 370 to poke the new options shorts, but not much steam in the trade. Nothing day in the rice as commercial is covered thru the holiday, and hoping for new selling after the bird is done. 1219 1/2, up 1 1/2. Beans off 4 1/2 with new shorts in the mix, 892 1/2. My grain in the bin doesn't really care right now about what a computer model says this week. Dow pushes up another 177 to 28,039 and bonds hold firm, 160.02, plus 6 tics. I really don't expect much trade this week. Better to spend your time and energy on farm and family.
11/22
Corn about a scratch Friday but 368 3/4 close makes for some new options shorts to fleece Monday. Wheat pops 6 1/4 to 515. Beans leak 4 to 897 with meal $2 weaker as well. Dow pops for 114 to 27,892 and bonds stay below the 160 call strke,159.28.
Corn about a scratch Friday but 368 3/4 close makes for some new options shorts to fleece Monday. Wheat pops 6 1/4 to 515. Beans leak 4 to 897 with meal $2 weaker as well. Dow pops for 114 to 27,892 and bonds stay below the 160 call strke,159.28.
11/21
Corn bumps 370 and settles 368 1/2, plus 1 3/4 and trying to decide who to pin tomorrow. My guess is 370. Decent exports in all the grains helped. Rice bull pushed the market up 14 1/2 cents to 1224 1/2, with more vs cash. Concerning me now is OI decreased when it should have increased, and 200 call verticals were liquidated by the pro who bought them earlier for a solid profit. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 509 and beans slip 4 to 901. Meal still gained a buck as it really doesn't want to spend time under $300. Dow in a churn trade but settles off 52 points, 27,748. Bonds down 19 tics with options expiration tomorrow, 159.23.
Corn bumps 370 and settles 368 1/2, plus 1 3/4 and trying to decide who to pin tomorrow. My guess is 370. Decent exports in all the grains helped. Rice bull pushed the market up 14 1/2 cents to 1224 1/2, with more vs cash. Concerning me now is OI decreased when it should have increased, and 200 call verticals were liquidated by the pro who bought them earlier for a solid profit. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 509 and beans slip 4 to 901. Meal still gained a buck as it really doesn't want to spend time under $300. Dow in a churn trade but settles off 52 points, 27,748. Bonds down 19 tics with options expiration tomorrow, 159.23.
11/20
Corn off 3 1/4 to 366 3/4 and within the nickel priced 370 straddle trades. Rice up a penny, 1210, with pretty light volume and more vs cash. It was impressive that the long wants to hold it here and no one was interested in pushing them today. Dow off 95 points to 27,800, but that was 150 off the lows. Bonds up 31 tics as well, 160.10. The financial markets are starting to confirm that the China agreement isn't coming as soon as most had hoped. That helped push beans 6 1/2 lower, 905 with meal down 2 bucks as well and under $300. That has been long term support, and domestic demand will not be slowing down anytime soon. Wheat up 3 1/2 to 515 1/2. Exports could give us a kick in the morning.
Corn off 3 1/4 to 366 3/4 and within the nickel priced 370 straddle trades. Rice up a penny, 1210, with pretty light volume and more vs cash. It was impressive that the long wants to hold it here and no one was interested in pushing them today. Dow off 95 points to 27,800, but that was 150 off the lows. Bonds up 31 tics as well, 160.10. The financial markets are starting to confirm that the China agreement isn't coming as soon as most had hoped. That helped push beans 6 1/2 lower, 905 with meal down 2 bucks as well and under $300. That has been long term support, and domestic demand will not be slowing down anytime soon. Wheat up 3 1/2 to 515 1/2. Exports could give us a kick in the morning.
11/19
Corn trades a nickel range and settles 370, plus 2 1/4. Straddle was for sale at a nickel yesterday. Go figure. Think day to day action has much to do with the real world? Or maybe the money boys calling the shots in the real world are telling us what we will be allowed to accept. Rice unchanged, 1209, with another 150 vs cash and some pretty large iceberg selling. Options OI is pretty much telling us the likely range for the next few months. Beans up 1 1/4 to 911 1/2, but near the lows of the trade. Rhetoric of a less likely trade deal weighing in. Wheat up 4 3/4 to 512. Dow peeks at new highs but rolls over to 27,895, off 113. Not sure if its done with this wave or just catching its breath, but the easy money has been had in this run. Bonds quietly up another 18 tics to 159.11, with more room to go if they so desire.
Corn trades a nickel range and settles 370, plus 2 1/4. Straddle was for sale at a nickel yesterday. Go figure. Think day to day action has much to do with the real world? Or maybe the money boys calling the shots in the real world are telling us what we will be allowed to accept. Rice unchanged, 1209, with another 150 vs cash and some pretty large iceberg selling. Options OI is pretty much telling us the likely range for the next few months. Beans up 1 1/4 to 911 1/2, but near the lows of the trade. Rhetoric of a less likely trade deal weighing in. Wheat up 4 3/4 to 512. Dow peeks at new highs but rolls over to 27,895, off 113. Not sure if its done with this wave or just catching its breath, but the easy money has been had in this run. Bonds quietly up another 18 tics to 159.11, with more room to go if they so desire.
11/18
Monday trade started with fears that the china deal wont go thru and a decent amount of weekend harvest to price. Corn off 3 1/2 to 367 3/4. OI dropped in the break, which means the long is giving up to the spec short, and the big money options guys were selling the 370 straddle for a nickel. That tells you that they don't see much downside from here either. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 507 1/4. Beans dropped 8 cents, 910 1/4, after breaking support and meal got hit for $6. I think that's a Monday Tuesday trade, but time will tell. Rice up 20 to 1209 and finding some selling here, as a 40 plus cent pop in 2 trading sessions seems to be enough for some. Dow up 55 to another new record,28,008, but bonds gained 15 tics to 158.25 and it didn't seem like a fluke. If bonds hold this latest rally, dow is tired.
Monday trade started with fears that the china deal wont go thru and a decent amount of weekend harvest to price. Corn off 3 1/2 to 367 3/4. OI dropped in the break, which means the long is giving up to the spec short, and the big money options guys were selling the 370 straddle for a nickel. That tells you that they don't see much downside from here either. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 507 1/4. Beans dropped 8 cents, 910 1/4, after breaking support and meal got hit for $6. I think that's a Monday Tuesday trade, but time will tell. Rice up 20 to 1209 and finding some selling here, as a 40 plus cent pop in 2 trading sessions seems to be enough for some. Dow up 55 to another new record,28,008, but bonds gained 15 tics to 158.25 and it didn't seem like a fluke. If bonds hold this latest rally, dow is tired.
11/15
Solid export sales in beans and especially meal put a floor in soy, with beans up 1 1/2 to 918 1/4 and meal up 4 dollars. Rice looked at 70 but bounced to close 1189, plus 4 1/2. Corn off 4 1/2 to 371 1/4 in front of an expected decent harvest weekend, and god knows the commercial doesn't want to pay the farmer any more than possible. Hearing of some really decent harvest results out of S. Dakota , which will only help keep their basis suppressed up north for another year. Those boys need some China exports. Wheat off a nickel, 502 3/4. Dow put on yet another record showing to 27,953, up 207. Bonds slip 11 tics to 158.10.
Solid export sales in beans and especially meal put a floor in soy, with beans up 1 1/2 to 918 1/4 and meal up 4 dollars. Rice looked at 70 but bounced to close 1189, plus 4 1/2. Corn off 4 1/2 to 371 1/4 in front of an expected decent harvest weekend, and god knows the commercial doesn't want to pay the farmer any more than possible. Hearing of some really decent harvest results out of S. Dakota , which will only help keep their basis suppressed up north for another year. Those boys need some China exports. Wheat off a nickel, 502 3/4. Dow put on yet another record showing to 27,953, up 207. Bonds slip 11 tics to 158.10.
11/14
Quiet day with corn up 1/2 cent, 375 3/4. Beans gain back 1 1/2 to 916 3/4, as meal slips a buck. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 507 3/4. Rice computer bear at work in front of the 15th as usual, 1184 1/2, off 7 1/2. November is off the board for rice and beans so that is one less outlet for the bears to work in. We saw more cancellations in the rice receipts and vs cash as well, so the cash market is obviously happy with this price. Export sales in the morning. Dow off 15 to 27.746 and bonds pop a full point and a tic to 158.21.
Quiet day with corn up 1/2 cent, 375 3/4. Beans gain back 1 1/2 to 916 3/4, as meal slips a buck. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 507 3/4. Rice computer bear at work in front of the 15th as usual, 1184 1/2, off 7 1/2. November is off the board for rice and beans so that is one less outlet for the bears to work in. We saw more cancellations in the rice receipts and vs cash as well, so the cash market is obviously happy with this price. Export sales in the morning. Dow off 15 to 27.746 and bonds pop a full point and a tic to 158.21.
11/13
Markets slip with rumors that china is backtracking on a purchase agreement. Go figure. Get it into your head, china will never take more from us than they need for the foreseeable future. This isn't the trade war. Its part of the economic war they have been silently waging with us for over a decade. Corn down 2 1/2 to 375 1/4 with a 17k pop in OI as the funds will take any reason to add to shorts. Wheat off 8 cents, 509 close. Meal stronger but beans slip 1 3/4 to 915 1/4. Rice has more McGehee cancellations and 98 more vs. cash, but off 4 1/2 to 1192. Dow off early but climbs to record highs again, 27,761, higher by 98. Bonds gain 20 tics to 157.20.
Markets slip with rumors that china is backtracking on a purchase agreement. Go figure. Get it into your head, china will never take more from us than they need for the foreseeable future. This isn't the trade war. Its part of the economic war they have been silently waging with us for over a decade. Corn down 2 1/2 to 375 1/4 with a 17k pop in OI as the funds will take any reason to add to shorts. Wheat off 8 cents, 509 close. Meal stronger but beans slip 1 3/4 to 915 1/4. Rice has more McGehee cancellations and 98 more vs. cash, but off 4 1/2 to 1192. Dow off early but climbs to record highs again, 27,761, higher by 98. Bonds gain 20 tics to 157.20.
11/12
Corn bounced 4 1/2 to 377 3/4 with some talk of better river movement and I think just the farmer not selling, or having excess to sell for that matter this harvest. Unchanged day in boring bean trade, 917. Wheat getting a bid to 517, up 11 1/4. Rice off a nickel to 1196 1/2 with some thought about the 15th of the month selling. More receipts cancelled , mostly McGhee. Dow up 5 points, 27,663, and bonds gain 16 tics to 157 even.
Corn bounced 4 1/2 to 377 3/4 with some talk of better river movement and I think just the farmer not selling, or having excess to sell for that matter this harvest. Unchanged day in boring bean trade, 917. Wheat getting a bid to 517, up 11 1/4. Rice off a nickel to 1196 1/2 with some thought about the 15th of the month selling. More receipts cancelled , mostly McGhee. Dow up 5 points, 27,663, and bonds gain 16 tics to 157 even.
11/11
Sloppy trade as we have a harvest Monday and receipts redelivered in the beans. Corn off 4 to 373 1/4. Increase in OI, so the funds are getting shorter. Look around at your local elevator. Do you see excess supplies like a normal year? Patience sure is tough when the deck is stacked against you. 917 close in the beans is off 14, with meal down $4. Expect a Monday Tuesday trade here. Again, increase in OI, meaning new sellers outnumber liquidation. Rice down 2 1/2 to 1201 1/2, and more vs cash than futures. Getting the theme? The shadow markets have more going on than you can see on the surface we call futures. Wheat off 4 1/2 to 505 3/4. Dow looks lower early, but closes up 27 points, 27,658. Bonds in a nothing day up 3 tics, 156.16.
Sloppy trade as we have a harvest Monday and receipts redelivered in the beans. Corn off 4 to 373 1/4. Increase in OI, so the funds are getting shorter. Look around at your local elevator. Do you see excess supplies like a normal year? Patience sure is tough when the deck is stacked against you. 917 close in the beans is off 14, with meal down $4. Expect a Monday Tuesday trade here. Again, increase in OI, meaning new sellers outnumber liquidation. Rice down 2 1/2 to 1201 1/2, and more vs cash than futures. Getting the theme? The shadow markets have more going on than you can see on the surface we call futures. Wheat off 4 1/2 to 505 3/4. Dow looks lower early, but closes up 27 points, 27,658. Bonds in a nothing day up 3 tics, 156.16.
11/08
WASDE numbers were a punt, so corn regained a couple cents to 377 1/4. Rice up a penny, 1204. Beans drop 5 1/2 on a small increase in carry over when a small drop was expected, 931, but meal gave up less than a buck. Wheat down 2 1/4 to 510 1/4. Bonds and dow trade a Friday churn, which is getting to be common, bonds off 8 tics, 156.13, and dow down 36 to 27,631. Should be a heavy harvest weekend.
WASDE numbers were a punt, so corn regained a couple cents to 377 1/4. Rice up a penny, 1204. Beans drop 5 1/2 on a small increase in carry over when a small drop was expected, 931, but meal gave up less than a buck. Wheat down 2 1/4 to 510 1/4. Bonds and dow trade a Friday churn, which is getting to be common, bonds off 8 tics, 156.13, and dow down 36 to 27,631. Should be a heavy harvest weekend.
Corn off another 3 1/2 to 375 1/4 with 20K of long liquidation as people are resigned to the USDA throwing out a bearish production number. We will see at 11. We have broke an extra dime rolling into this report, so it better be bearish. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 512 1/2. Beans bounce 9 cents, 936 1/2 with significant china sales and meal gaining almost $7. Rice gains 3 to 1203 with another 100 bullish 4 ways traded in options. Interesting how the commercial appears to be maneuvering into a friendly position in front of this report. Would not have any sell orders or be short this market. Dow setting new records up another 237 to 27,667. Dangerous to say it, but this feels almost like a blow off top developing. Bonds are saying it might be real though, off 2 points and 10 tics to 156.21.
11/06
China talks delayed, and that put pressure on corn, off 3 to 378 3/4. Beans get hit for 6 3/4 to 927 1/2, and meal was surprisingly soft, falling below 300. Wheat had a small bounce to 516 3/4, up 1 1/2. Quiet rice day up 3 cents, 1200. Not much of a dow story, 27,430, plus 9 points but the bonds popped higher by a point and 3 tics from an oversold position, 158.31. Ag is still getting settled into positions in front of Fridays WASDE report.
China talks delayed, and that put pressure on corn, off 3 to 378 3/4. Beans get hit for 6 3/4 to 927 1/2, and meal was surprisingly soft, falling below 300. Wheat had a small bounce to 516 3/4, up 1 1/2. Quiet rice day up 3 cents, 1200. Not much of a dow story, 27,430, plus 9 points but the bonds popped higher by a point and 3 tics from an oversold position, 158.31. Ag is still getting settled into positions in front of Fridays WASDE report.
11/05
Corn looked at 380 but solid buying volume put a 381 3/4 close, off 1 1/2. Wheat popped 5 1/2 to 515 1/4. Beans slipped 3 3/4 to 934 1/4 but meal closed a few tics higher on the day. Rice bear didn't defend and buying put us up 12 to 1197. More inland receipts cancelled, and a bullish 4 way options spread for 175 contracts helped put in a floor. Hope this isn't a commissions trade. All the ag trade is in front of Fridays WASDE report, which several are expecting a bearish corn production number. I figure its about the last report they can put out based on pure guesses. Dow looks up new highs and settles back in a pretty quiet trading day, 27,421, up 41. Bonds run another extension down to 157.28, off a point and 19.
Corn looked at 380 but solid buying volume put a 381 3/4 close, off 1 1/2. Wheat popped 5 1/2 to 515 1/4. Beans slipped 3 3/4 to 934 1/4 but meal closed a few tics higher on the day. Rice bear didn't defend and buying put us up 12 to 1197. More inland receipts cancelled, and a bullish 4 way options spread for 175 contracts helped put in a floor. Hope this isn't a commissions trade. All the ag trade is in front of Fridays WASDE report, which several are expecting a bearish corn production number. I figure its about the last report they can put out based on pure guesses. Dow looks up new highs and settles back in a pretty quiet trading day, 27,421, up 41. Bonds run another extension down to 157.28, off a point and 19.
11/04
Monday soft trade in wheat, off 6 1/4 to 509 3/4 and corn, 383 1/4, down 6. Corn is about as low as I can justify, but short term, the computers rule. 50% of the corn crop is still in the field in November and we are still going to yield within 7 BU of last year? Last chance for a soft report is Friday, and looks like the world is banking on it. Beans up another 1 1/4 to 938. Rice bear program met little resistance and low volume as the market slipped 13 1/2 lower, 1185. More vertical call spreads financed by puts, and I expect 1160-118- to set the lows for this move. Dow up 121 after taking out the top side resistance, 27,380. Lots of faith that a china deal is going to get done in the financial markets. Bonds down another point 05 to 159.15.
Monday soft trade in wheat, off 6 1/4 to 509 3/4 and corn, 383 1/4, down 6. Corn is about as low as I can justify, but short term, the computers rule. 50% of the corn crop is still in the field in November and we are still going to yield within 7 BU of last year? Last chance for a soft report is Friday, and looks like the world is banking on it. Beans up another 1 1/4 to 938. Rice bear program met little resistance and low volume as the market slipped 13 1/2 lower, 1185. More vertical call spreads financed by puts, and I expect 1160-118- to set the lows for this move. Dow up 121 after taking out the top side resistance, 27,380. Lots of faith that a china deal is going to get done in the financial markets. Bonds down another point 05 to 159.15.
11/01
Corn spec sellers active early and a bunch of new shorts established, but poor weather for harvest, and a solid wheat market(up 7 1/4 to 516) brought corn back to 3/4 lower, 389 1/4 close. Oats also were strong, gaining 8 cents and back over $3. Beans gain 4 1/2 to 936 3/4 with a commercial stopping all the receipts and starting a front month bean squeeze. One thing to keep in mind is a lot of these sell programs lose their flavor when full carry gets taken away. Rice off 4 1/2 in a nothing day, 1198 1/2, with deliveries done and 164 new vs cash. Commitments of traders pretty friendly as the options all unwound as expected. Dow closes out the topside of the range, 27,259, up 277 for a very strong Friday close. WTO did award China 3.6 billion against US in a long running dispute, but don't see that as much of anything but noise. Bonds set back 24 tics after a very aggressive Thursday trade, 160.20. What the north is getting is a bunch of freeze, thaw cycles, when we need a solid freeze now so the combines can roll. There is still a bunch of corn, and some beans as far south as central Illinois and Mo. that need to come out, and from Chicago north, most of the crop is still out there. If we weren't dealing with significant field losses by delaying harvest, why would anyone build bins. Or combine early and dry. One other thing to consider is how many acres that simply wont be able to be worked up, and the ruts left behind this November and December.
Corn spec sellers active early and a bunch of new shorts established, but poor weather for harvest, and a solid wheat market(up 7 1/4 to 516) brought corn back to 3/4 lower, 389 1/4 close. Oats also were strong, gaining 8 cents and back over $3. Beans gain 4 1/2 to 936 3/4 with a commercial stopping all the receipts and starting a front month bean squeeze. One thing to keep in mind is a lot of these sell programs lose their flavor when full carry gets taken away. Rice off 4 1/2 in a nothing day, 1198 1/2, with deliveries done and 164 new vs cash. Commitments of traders pretty friendly as the options all unwound as expected. Dow closes out the topside of the range, 27,259, up 277 for a very strong Friday close. WTO did award China 3.6 billion against US in a long running dispute, but don't see that as much of anything but noise. Bonds set back 24 tics after a very aggressive Thursday trade, 160.20. What the north is getting is a bunch of freeze, thaw cycles, when we need a solid freeze now so the combines can roll. There is still a bunch of corn, and some beans as far south as central Illinois and Mo. that need to come out, and from Chicago north, most of the crop is still out there. If we weren't dealing with significant field losses by delaying harvest, why would anyone build bins. Or combine early and dry. One other thing to consider is how many acres that simply wont be able to be worked up, and the ruts left behind this November and December.
10/31
Thursday trade with decent exports in rice and beans, and a switch to Jan futures for both as nov is in deliveries. Speaking of deliveries, rice is done, and beans were all stopped by one commercial. Someone is going to take what china gave. And probably export it to China. Jan rice up 2 to 1202, but selling is just above. Beans up 1 3/4 cents, 932 1/4. Meal gained 2 dollars. Quiet corn trade, off 3/4 to 390, and wheat closes 508 3/4, off 1/2. Dow down 150 on the close to 26,982, but really punched a hole on both sides, so I would expect churn to the top and bottom of the range over the next few days. Bonds continue the up move, 161.12, gaining a point and 25 tics.
Thursday trade with decent exports in rice and beans, and a switch to Jan futures for both as nov is in deliveries. Speaking of deliveries, rice is done, and beans were all stopped by one commercial. Someone is going to take what china gave. And probably export it to China. Jan rice up 2 to 1202, but selling is just above. Beans up 1 3/4 cents, 932 1/4. Meal gained 2 dollars. Quiet corn trade, off 3/4 to 390, and wheat closes 508 3/4, off 1/2. Dow down 150 on the close to 26,982, but really punched a hole on both sides, so I would expect churn to the top and bottom of the range over the next few days. Bonds continue the up move, 161.12, gaining a point and 25 tics.
10/30
Corn continues up another 4 1/2 to 390 3/4 with solid river bids and a slow harvest. After big rains, we will be getting snowed on tonight. Cant sell it if you cant get it to a dryer, and the more the dryer wants, the more I need to get. Wheat slips 2 1/4 to 509 1/4. Beans close 916, off 2 1/4 in front of deliveries. Interesting that 1650 receipts come out, all but 1 from china owned companies. Talk one thing and do another. Also, put out new #1 grade. That is just an extra tax to go along with load out fees on anyone that does load out. Good luck arguing grade when the barge is sitting there. Rice bids and 225 contracts of 12-12.40 verts financed buy 1180 puts got us into stops but sets back to 5 1/2 higher, 1170. Delivered 687 so you can put November futures to bed. 119 new receipts out of McGehee, so I guess someone wanted to raise some cash. Don't forget he is figuring on collecting the 22 cent load out tax as well. I got a buck that they don't make January. Dow up 90 in a yo-yo trade with the fed dropping 1/4 point as expected, 27,132. Bonds up 29 more to 159.19.
Corn continues up another 4 1/2 to 390 3/4 with solid river bids and a slow harvest. After big rains, we will be getting snowed on tonight. Cant sell it if you cant get it to a dryer, and the more the dryer wants, the more I need to get. Wheat slips 2 1/4 to 509 1/4. Beans close 916, off 2 1/4 in front of deliveries. Interesting that 1650 receipts come out, all but 1 from china owned companies. Talk one thing and do another. Also, put out new #1 grade. That is just an extra tax to go along with load out fees on anyone that does load out. Good luck arguing grade when the barge is sitting there. Rice bids and 225 contracts of 12-12.40 verts financed buy 1180 puts got us into stops but sets back to 5 1/2 higher, 1170. Delivered 687 so you can put November futures to bed. 119 new receipts out of McGehee, so I guess someone wanted to raise some cash. Don't forget he is figuring on collecting the 22 cent load out tax as well. I got a buck that they don't make January. Dow up 90 in a yo-yo trade with the fed dropping 1/4 point as expected, 27,132. Bonds up 29 more to 159.19.
10/29
Corn bounces back 2 1/4 to 386 1/4. Wheat has a nothing day, 511 1/2, off 1/4. Beans off 2 1/2 in front of first intentions, 918 1/4. Rice checked 1150 and bounced to 1164 1/2, with the seller looking like he has been trapped. OI is below registrations and short of carry, so the bankers wont hold the receipts this cycle. Dow off 11 points to 27,042 and bonds look to have turned, 158.22, plus 13 tics.
Corn bounces back 2 1/4 to 386 1/4. Wheat has a nothing day, 511 1/2, off 1/4. Beans off 2 1/2 in front of first intentions, 918 1/4. Rice checked 1150 and bounced to 1164 1/2, with the seller looking like he has been trapped. OI is below registrations and short of carry, so the bankers wont hold the receipts this cycle. Dow off 11 points to 27,042 and bonds look to have turned, 158.22, plus 13 tics.
10/28
Corn off 2 3/4 with the computers getting more short and nothing exciting in exports. Wheat down 6 to 511 3/4 with no real news, but that bull needs fed all the time. Beans in a quiet pre delivery trade, 920 3/4, up 1/2. No real follow-through from Fridays selling. Rice does its standard break in front of deliveries to 1158, minus 22. Would expect to see some commercial buying from here on. Dow chasing records up 149 to 27,053 and bonds off another point and 3 tics to 158.09. My guess is this is about the low of this move.
Corn off 2 3/4 with the computers getting more short and nothing exciting in exports. Wheat down 6 to 511 3/4 with no real news, but that bull needs fed all the time. Beans in a quiet pre delivery trade, 920 3/4, up 1/2. No real follow-through from Fridays selling. Rice does its standard break in front of deliveries to 1158, minus 22. Would expect to see some commercial buying from here on. Dow chasing records up 149 to 27,053 and bonds off another point and 3 tics to 158.09. My guess is this is about the low of this move.
10/25
Corn started solid but faded to unchanged by the close, 386 3/4. Beans off 13 to 920 1/4 to pin the options 20 strike. I figured we would stumble around the 30 strike. Rice 1180 strike expiration held like a rock getting a 1180 closing pin. Still a 7 cent gain in a pretty balanced OI market. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 517 3/4. Dow chasing the highs to 26,904, up 124 and bonds off another 19 tics to 159.12.
Corn started solid but faded to unchanged by the close, 386 3/4. Beans off 13 to 920 1/4 to pin the options 20 strike. I figured we would stumble around the 30 strike. Rice 1180 strike expiration held like a rock getting a 1180 closing pin. Still a 7 cent gain in a pretty balanced OI market. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 517 3/4. Dow chasing the highs to 26,904, up 124 and bonds off another 19 tics to 159.12.
10/24
China business talk early, but not enough in the export sales to keep the market up, and when combines are running, commercials want a lower close. Corn off a penny, 386 3/4. Beans slip 1/2 to 933 1/4. Meal was off 3 dollars and maybe a buying opportunity. Wheat down 4 3/4 to 516. Rice bounces 6 with another decent export sales number , spread roll to 2400 OI in November, and vs cash for nearly 500 contracts. Options expiration should lock all the grains into a range today. Dow up and down churn but off 22 points to close 26,780. Bonds off 4 tics, 159.31.
China business talk early, but not enough in the export sales to keep the market up, and when combines are running, commercials want a lower close. Corn off a penny, 386 3/4. Beans slip 1/2 to 933 1/4. Meal was off 3 dollars and maybe a buying opportunity. Wheat down 4 3/4 to 516. Rice bounces 6 with another decent export sales number , spread roll to 2400 OI in November, and vs cash for nearly 500 contracts. Options expiration should lock all the grains into a range today. Dow up and down churn but off 22 points to close 26,780. Bonds off 4 tics, 159.31.
10/23
Chop trade as corn and beans each off 1/4 cent, 387 3/4 and 933 3/4. China supposedly buying beans for real, and Bear systems couldn't attract any followers to sell the market. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 520 3/4 with some talk that Iran will be a big buyer this year. That should catch the attention of rice traders as well. Rice bear system sold another 150 or so today to end only 3 lower, 1167. As expected, the options are making his sell job much harder to accomplish. Dow peeked lower but again couldn't find company and rallied to 39 higher, 26.802. Bonds up a tic, 160.03. Export sales in the AM.
Chop trade as corn and beans each off 1/4 cent, 387 3/4 and 933 3/4. China supposedly buying beans for real, and Bear systems couldn't attract any followers to sell the market. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 520 3/4 with some talk that Iran will be a big buyer this year. That should catch the attention of rice traders as well. Rice bear system sold another 150 or so today to end only 3 lower, 1167. As expected, the options are making his sell job much harder to accomplish. Dow peeked lower but again couldn't find company and rallied to 39 higher, 26.802. Bonds up a tic, 160.03. Export sales in the AM.
10/22
Market opened strong with china approving 10 mmt more bean purchase, but by the end of the day the market had reverted to a show me attitude. Its hard to get a sustained rally while combines are running, so try not to focus too much on day to day market gyrations and get the crop in the bin. Opinions will get a wake up call when the bin doors close and the farmer gets stingy. Corn up 3/4 to 388. Beans gain 3/4 as well, 934. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 518, and rice bear keeps hitting, 1170, minus 9 1/2. Dow churned for a 34 point loss, 26,763, and bonds bounce 20 tics, 160.02.
Market opened strong with china approving 10 mmt more bean purchase, but by the end of the day the market had reverted to a show me attitude. Its hard to get a sustained rally while combines are running, so try not to focus too much on day to day market gyrations and get the crop in the bin. Opinions will get a wake up call when the bin doors close and the farmer gets stingy. Corn up 3/4 to 388. Beans gain 3/4 as well, 934. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 518, and rice bear keeps hitting, 1170, minus 9 1/2. Dow churned for a 34 point loss, 26,763, and bonds bounce 20 tics, 160.02.
10/21
Nothing new over the weekend so the grains all leaked, Bulls need fed, especially during harvest. Corn off 3 3/4 to 387 1/4. Beans just churn and close 933 1/4. down 3/4. Wheat drops 8 3/4 to 523 1/4. Rice roll continues, along with vs cash as business is being done. As we fall into options strikes. Bear push will get a little harder, but for now he is still in charge. 1179 1/2, off 11 1/2. Dollar might be done going up, and a little weaker dollar would be good news for us. Dow just in a churn trade, 26,797, plus 43, and the bonds drop 25 tics to 159.14. Global changes will have positive effects for us moving forward. Ms. Lagarde will replace Draghi as the head of the ECB, and that is a good thing. She ran the IMF, and wont give away money like a drunken sailor. I expect we will see the negative rates out of Europe disappear, which will stop our rates from going down barring a spike on some form of global pressure. The press will never admit it, but Trump pushing the Fed successfully and signaling that he will meet the global manipulators move for move has worked. Don't be surprised to be hearing about the PIIGS in the next six months. When they could borrow for free, it allowed them to paper over their problems, not fix them. Brexit looks to finally happen, and that is also a plus for us. I expect a trade deal with the brits to come quickly. More to come.
Nothing new over the weekend so the grains all leaked, Bulls need fed, especially during harvest. Corn off 3 3/4 to 387 1/4. Beans just churn and close 933 1/4. down 3/4. Wheat drops 8 3/4 to 523 1/4. Rice roll continues, along with vs cash as business is being done. As we fall into options strikes. Bear push will get a little harder, but for now he is still in charge. 1179 1/2, off 11 1/2. Dollar might be done going up, and a little weaker dollar would be good news for us. Dow just in a churn trade, 26,797, plus 43, and the bonds drop 25 tics to 159.14. Global changes will have positive effects for us moving forward. Ms. Lagarde will replace Draghi as the head of the ECB, and that is a good thing. She ran the IMF, and wont give away money like a drunken sailor. I expect we will see the negative rates out of Europe disappear, which will stop our rates from going down barring a spike on some form of global pressure. The press will never admit it, but Trump pushing the Fed successfully and signaling that he will meet the global manipulators move for move has worked. Don't be surprised to be hearing about the PIIGS in the next six months. When they could borrow for free, it allowed them to paper over their problems, not fix them. Brexit looks to finally happen, and that is also a plus for us. I expect a trade deal with the brits to come quickly. More to come.
10/18
Soft Friday corn trade as we leak 3 3/4 cents, 391. Concerns about exports and ethanol demand are currently gaining more traction than supply, or the lack thereof. Rice bear pushes down8 to 1191. Spread roll continues to be the feature. Beans up 2 1/2 to 934 with meal gaining nearly 2 bucks, but probably still cheap. Global wheat demand is strong for wheat and prices are starting to reflect that, 532 1/4, plus 6 3/4. I still don't trust it and would be looking for sell points. Dow off 239 to 26,754, and bonds are up a tic, 160.07. I'll write up a little of the big picture global financial changes as soon as I can.
Soft Friday corn trade as we leak 3 3/4 cents, 391. Concerns about exports and ethanol demand are currently gaining more traction than supply, or the lack thereof. Rice bear pushes down8 to 1191. Spread roll continues to be the feature. Beans up 2 1/2 to 934 with meal gaining nearly 2 bucks, but probably still cheap. Global wheat demand is strong for wheat and prices are starting to reflect that, 532 1/4, plus 6 3/4. I still don't trust it and would be looking for sell points. Dow off 239 to 26,754, and bonds are up a tic, 160.07. I'll write up a little of the big picture global financial changes as soon as I can.
10/17
Corn up 3 to 394 3/4. Beans close 931 1/2, up 3 1/2. Wheat fire continues to 525 1/2, plus 12 1/4. Rice spread roll continues and the market is up a penny, 1199. Dow churn continues, 26,993, plus 53 and looking to post a new high before we roll over again. Bods off 3 tics, 160.06.
Corn up 3 to 394 3/4. Beans close 931 1/2, up 3 1/2. Wheat fire continues to 525 1/2, plus 12 1/4. Rice spread roll continues and the market is up a penny, 1199. Dow churn continues, 26,993, plus 53 and looking to post a new high before we roll over again. Bods off 3 tics, 160.06.
10/16
Corn off 1 1/2 to 391 1/4 as a push lower got met with some solid buying. Beans off 6 cents, 928, with soft meal trade. Wheat pops 6 1/4 to 513 1/4 with global wheat strength the story and some issues between Russia and Vietnam. Rice rallies 9 1/2 to 1198 with more spread roll, and a bear that didn't want to defend. Dow off 62 in a nothing day, 26,940, and bonds gain back 11 tics, 160.09.
Corn off 1 1/2 to 391 1/4 as a push lower got met with some solid buying. Beans off 6 cents, 928, with soft meal trade. Wheat pops 6 1/4 to 513 1/4 with global wheat strength the story and some issues between Russia and Vietnam. Rice rallies 9 1/2 to 1198 with more spread roll, and a bear that didn't want to defend. Dow off 62 in a nothing day, 26,940, and bonds gain back 11 tics, 160.09.
10/15
Quiet news day in ag, and in rallies, that means we leak a little. Corn off 4 1/2 to 393 1/4. Beans lose 6 1/2 to 934 with weak meal. Wheat down 4 cents, 507. Rice bear back as expected, and spread roll get us to 1188 1/2, off 10 1/2. Dow puts up a 256 point run to 27,002, and bonds drop a point and 6 tics to 159.30. Still would not try to catch that knife.
Quiet news day in ag, and in rallies, that means we leak a little. Corn off 4 1/2 to 393 1/4. Beans lose 6 1/2 to 934 with weak meal. Wheat down 4 cents, 507. Rice bear back as expected, and spread roll get us to 1188 1/2, off 10 1/2. Dow puts up a 256 point run to 27,002, and bonds drop a point and 6 tics to 159.30. Still would not try to catch that knife.
10/14
A nothing, partial holiday trade. Corn churned a little but closed unchanged, 397 3/4. Rice off 7 to 1199 with another bear push and some liquidation along with the expected rolls. Beans gain 4 1/2 with farmers holding tight to new inventory and yields just simply not there. 940 1/2. Wheat has a solid world market right now and spec shorts here, 511, plus 3. Dow churned up and down but settled off 29 points, 26,746, and bonds close the day up 22 tics, 161.04.
A nothing, partial holiday trade. Corn churned a little but closed unchanged, 397 3/4. Rice off 7 to 1199 with another bear push and some liquidation along with the expected rolls. Beans gain 4 1/2 with farmers holding tight to new inventory and yields just simply not there. 940 1/2. Wheat has a solid world market right now and spec shorts here, 511, plus 3. Dow churned up and down but settled off 29 points, 26,746, and bonds close the day up 22 tics, 161.04.
10/11
Weather bounce Friday in front of a significant amount of the corn belt going into a hard freeze and snow this weekend. Corn up 17 1/2 to 397 3/4. Wheat jumps to 508, plus 15. Beans up 12 1/2 to 936 with meal gaining another 3 dollars. Rice only gains a couple cents, 1206 with spread roll the feature. Trump and China deal the real story of the day but some skepticism late as the dow closes 26,775, up 291 but 200 off the highs. Bonds drop a point 26 to 160.14 with some chatter that as long as the market stays this firm, the treasury might not drop rates again.
Weather bounce Friday in front of a significant amount of the corn belt going into a hard freeze and snow this weekend. Corn up 17 1/2 to 397 3/4. Wheat jumps to 508, plus 15. Beans up 12 1/2 to 936 with meal gaining another 3 dollars. Rice only gains a couple cents, 1206 with spread roll the feature. Trump and China deal the real story of the day but some skepticism late as the dow closes 26,775, up 291 but 200 off the highs. Bonds drop a point 26 to 160.14 with some chatter that as long as the market stays this firm, the treasury might not drop rates again.
10/10
WASDE was considered bearish for corn, off 14 to 380 1/4. If you look into the numbers though, its not so bad, and maybe more of a trap. They cut ethanol production, which is currently off, but could easily ramp up 400M bushels with a new program. Exports are soft, but SA production expected to keep it soft hasn't event hit the field. Yields boosted into a record blizzard expected this weekend. OI up solidly is what should have been a liquidation trade. I believe the computers set a trap, and mother nature may have just trapped them. We will see Monday. Beans off 1/4 to 923 1/2 but dragged down, not held down. Beans numbers are nothing but bullish. Wheat off 7 1/4 to 493 and could be worse by my math. Dow gains 179 to 26,484 with some form of truce expected between US and China. Bonds off another point and 10 tics, with room for a couple more points back and fill before we resume the rally., Dangerous knife to catch.
WASDE was considered bearish for corn, off 14 to 380 1/4. If you look into the numbers though, its not so bad, and maybe more of a trap. They cut ethanol production, which is currently off, but could easily ramp up 400M bushels with a new program. Exports are soft, but SA production expected to keep it soft hasn't event hit the field. Yields boosted into a record blizzard expected this weekend. OI up solidly is what should have been a liquidation trade. I believe the computers set a trap, and mother nature may have just trapped them. We will see Monday. Beans off 1/4 to 923 1/2 but dragged down, not held down. Beans numbers are nothing but bullish. Wheat off 7 1/4 to 493 and could be worse by my math. Dow gains 179 to 26,484 with some form of truce expected between US and China. Bonds off another point and 10 tics, with room for a couple more points back and fill before we resume the rally., Dangerous knife to catch.
10/09
Corn off 1 1/2 to 394 1/4 to close Wednesday trade. Wheat unchanged, 500 1/4. Beans gain 3 1/4 to 923 3/4 on a 3 buck meal rally. Rice bear pays up to lighten up, 1200 1/2, plus 16 1/2. Dow gains 167 to 26,305 and bonds lose a full point to 163.18.
Corn off 1 1/2 to 394 1/4 to close Wednesday trade. Wheat unchanged, 500 1/4. Beans gain 3 1/4 to 923 3/4 on a 3 buck meal rally. Rice bear pays up to lighten up, 1200 1/2, plus 16 1/2. Dow gains 167 to 26,305 and bonds lose a full point to 163.18.
10/08
Cold weather got some traction with corn up 8 3/4 to 395 3/4. Still a big spec short, OI gained 23K on the rally so the large spec short wasn't the big buyer, and I have literally 1000 geese circling my pond as I type this early this morning, so the migration is upon us. I trust the geese more than the weatherman any day. I suspect they do too. Wheat up 11 in tow, 500 1/4. Beans gain 5 1/4 to 920 1/2, and meal was 5 dollars higher. Rice up 19 1/2 to 1184 as the short got his hand stuck in the cookie jar. I just don't think there are any players with the conviction to hold him over a barrel. Dow off 301 to 26,138, and bonds gain 5 tics, 164.18.
Cold weather got some traction with corn up 8 3/4 to 395 3/4. Still a big spec short, OI gained 23K on the rally so the large spec short wasn't the big buyer, and I have literally 1000 geese circling my pond as I type this early this morning, so the migration is upon us. I trust the geese more than the weatherman any day. I suspect they do too. Wheat up 11 in tow, 500 1/4. Beans gain 5 1/4 to 920 1/2, and meal was 5 dollars higher. Rice up 19 1/2 to 1184 as the short got his hand stuck in the cookie jar. I just don't think there are any players with the conviction to hold him over a barrel. Dow off 301 to 26,138, and bonds gain 5 tics, 164.18.
10/07
Quiet Monday trade with late crops and cold weather coming this week giving us a floor, but poor exports putting in a ceiling. Corn up 2 1/4 to 387. Beans slip a penny, 915 1/4. Wheat off 1 1/4. 489 1/4. Rice bear continues selling but getting nearly nothing for his volume, 1164 1/2, off 1 1/2. Dow churn up and down with a 26,439 settle, 86 lower on the day. Bonds off 19 tics, 164.13. China will be in negotiating this week and the consensus is nothing will get done, but I see delayed food production is SA, and pretty much everywhere china has started its silk road being impacted, and not in a good way. This global pressure has to be putting china in a pinch. Do they move a little more to open markets, or go full commie? It getting close to time to step up to the plate, and up until now, none of their side has had to deal with any austerity measures. The clock is ticking hard on how much longer they can keep up the charade.
Quiet Monday trade with late crops and cold weather coming this week giving us a floor, but poor exports putting in a ceiling. Corn up 2 1/4 to 387. Beans slip a penny, 915 1/4. Wheat off 1 1/4. 489 1/4. Rice bear continues selling but getting nearly nothing for his volume, 1164 1/2, off 1 1/2. Dow churn up and down with a 26,439 settle, 86 lower on the day. Bonds off 19 tics, 164.13. China will be in negotiating this week and the consensus is nothing will get done, but I see delayed food production is SA, and pretty much everywhere china has started its silk road being impacted, and not in a good way. This global pressure has to be putting china in a pinch. Do they move a little more to open markets, or go full commie? It getting close to time to step up to the plate, and up until now, none of their side has had to deal with any austerity measures. The clock is ticking hard on how much longer they can keep up the charade.
10/04
Corn off 4 cents to end the week 384 3/4. Spec is still a big short. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 490 1/2. Beans gain 4 1/2 to 916 1/4. Private forecaster has a 46.5 crop yield. Rice still has a big spec long to flush out by the commercials, 1166, off 5 1/2. Grains just passing time the last 2 days of the week and harvest sellers get no real benefit off the combine. Dow rallied the last couple days as the computers ran all the sellers out they could, so churn back up it is. 26,525, plus 345, while the bonds close 165, up 19 tics.
Corn off 4 cents to end the week 384 3/4. Spec is still a big short. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 490 1/2. Beans gain 4 1/2 to 916 1/4. Private forecaster has a 46.5 crop yield. Rice still has a big spec long to flush out by the commercials, 1166, off 5 1/2. Grains just passing time the last 2 days of the week and harvest sellers get no real benefit off the combine. Dow rallied the last couple days as the computers ran all the sellers out they could, so churn back up it is. 26,525, plus 345, while the bonds close 165, up 19 tics.
10/02
Back and fill day as corn gives up 4 3/4 cents to 387 3/4. Beans drop 5 3/4 to 913 3/4 with meal losing 3 1/2 bucks. Wheat closes 489, down 9 3/4. Rice bear still at it, down another 15 1/2 to 1171 1/2 and putting a lot of put options into play from here on down. Dow gets clobbered to 25,985, minus 536 and bonds rally another 20 tics, 163.10. Should get informa number and we will be hearing about Euro tariffs because of a WTO ruling in our favor. My guess is France will not like where the needle points. Early harvest numbers are off, but not terrible. But its early, and if results continue like they have from Texas north, as harvest continues, yields and quality decline.
Back and fill day as corn gives up 4 3/4 cents to 387 3/4. Beans drop 5 3/4 to 913 3/4 with meal losing 3 1/2 bucks. Wheat closes 489, down 9 3/4. Rice bear still at it, down another 15 1/2 to 1171 1/2 and putting a lot of put options into play from here on down. Dow gets clobbered to 25,985, minus 536 and bonds rally another 20 tics, 163.10. Should get informa number and we will be hearing about Euro tariffs because of a WTO ruling in our favor. My guess is France will not like where the needle points. Early harvest numbers are off, but not terrible. But its early, and if results continue like they have from Texas north, as harvest continues, yields and quality decline.
10/01
Follow thru buying in corn good for another 4 1/2 cents, 392 1/2. One of the services put out some neutral/bearish numbers, so I would expect grains to take a break for a few days. Beans up 13 1/2 to 919 1/2, with short meal players paying up to get out, meal up 8. Wheat gains 3 cents, 498 3/4. Rice bear is methodically keeping a lid on trade, 1187, down 14 1/2 on the day. Bonds up 12 tics, 162.22, but a fair amount of noise in that trade, as the dow gets sucker punched for 380 points to settle 26,521. I think the real story revolves around pricing of a 10 yr yen auction, because this is the first real attempt at an unwind from the players who brought us cheap rate money so many years ago.
Follow thru buying in corn good for another 4 1/2 cents, 392 1/2. One of the services put out some neutral/bearish numbers, so I would expect grains to take a break for a few days. Beans up 13 1/2 to 919 1/2, with short meal players paying up to get out, meal up 8. Wheat gains 3 cents, 498 3/4. Rice bear is methodically keeping a lid on trade, 1187, down 14 1/2 on the day. Bonds up 12 tics, 162.22, but a fair amount of noise in that trade, as the dow gets sucker punched for 380 points to settle 26,521. I think the real story revolves around pricing of a 10 yr yen auction, because this is the first real attempt at an unwind from the players who brought us cheap rate money so many years ago.
9/30
Month end trade got muddied by a stocks report that was nothing but friendly. Corn stocks 300 million less than expected and a 16 1/2 cent pop to 388. Specs liquidated 35K, but have another 125K to cover. Beans tighter as well 906, plus 23. Meal up 6 dollars. Wheat even came along for 8 1/2 cents, 495 3/4, but be wary there. Rice bear pressed 14 lower to peek near the bottom of recent trade, 1201 1/2. No really stupid global events, so dow up 105 to 26,901. Bonds a big nothing day, 162.10, minus a tic. Should see back and fill in the grains, but I don't believe this was a one day adjustment.
Month end trade got muddied by a stocks report that was nothing but friendly. Corn stocks 300 million less than expected and a 16 1/2 cent pop to 388. Specs liquidated 35K, but have another 125K to cover. Beans tighter as well 906, plus 23. Meal up 6 dollars. Wheat even came along for 8 1/2 cents, 495 3/4, but be wary there. Rice bear pressed 14 lower to peek near the bottom of recent trade, 1201 1/2. No really stupid global events, so dow up 105 to 26,901. Bonds a big nothing day, 162.10, minus a tic. Should see back and fill in the grains, but I don't believe this was a one day adjustment.
9/27
Trump fired another bullet across the China bow with some early discussions about limiting US investments in Chinese companies. There is validity to the story, because, like everything else the global economy has done to facilitate Chinas growth, They aren't playing on a level field. Dow backed off 96 to end 26,796. Bond break was rejected and we closed a tic higher, 162.11. Grains are prepping for Mondays stocks report, and I will note that larger than usual on farm stocks previously reported vs basis paid in certain states just doesn't add up. That is a fudge number to a certain extent, but could be cleaned up Monday. Corn off a penny, 371 1/2. Beans give up 5 1/2 to 883. Wheat up 3 cents to 487 1/4. Argentina having early wheat problems and Australia drought the bait in the water to chum the suckers. Rice up 7 1/2 but a dime off the highs, 1215 1/2. Quickie short system took some off. Across the grain board, the large spec has enough of a short position that anything friendly Monday morning will have some legs.
Trump fired another bullet across the China bow with some early discussions about limiting US investments in Chinese companies. There is validity to the story, because, like everything else the global economy has done to facilitate Chinas growth, They aren't playing on a level field. Dow backed off 96 to end 26,796. Bond break was rejected and we closed a tic higher, 162.11. Grains are prepping for Mondays stocks report, and I will note that larger than usual on farm stocks previously reported vs basis paid in certain states just doesn't add up. That is a fudge number to a certain extent, but could be cleaned up Monday. Corn off a penny, 371 1/2. Beans give up 5 1/2 to 883. Wheat up 3 cents to 487 1/4. Argentina having early wheat problems and Australia drought the bait in the water to chum the suckers. Rice up 7 1/2 but a dime off the highs, 1215 1/2. Quickie short system took some off. Across the grain board, the large spec has enough of a short position that anything friendly Monday morning will have some legs.
9/26
Corn off 1 3/4 to 372 1/2. Don't see much downside from here as these coming rains and cold do nothing positive. Beans down 3/4 cent, 888 1/2, but meal did slip $2. Wheat has a 7 cent bounce, 484 1/4. Rice bear got taken to the woodshed on a 18 1/2 cent rally as strong buyers put in a floor, and the newest shorts stopped out. Dow churn continues, 26892, off 66. Bonds pop for a point and 10 to 162.10. Bonds have a funny action to them right now, and that is the big money, so something may truly be in the works with china. Early, but radar up.
Corn off 1 3/4 to 372 1/2. Don't see much downside from here as these coming rains and cold do nothing positive. Beans down 3/4 cent, 888 1/2, but meal did slip $2. Wheat has a 7 cent bounce, 484 1/4. Rice bear got taken to the woodshed on a 18 1/2 cent rally as strong buyers put in a floor, and the newest shorts stopped out. Dow churn continues, 26892, off 66. Bonds pop for a point and 10 to 162.10. Bonds have a funny action to them right now, and that is the big money, so something may truly be in the works with china. Early, but radar up.
9/25
Corn off 1/2 is a quiet day, 374 1/4. Rice down another 10 1/2 with the computers grind hunting the recent spec longs, 1189 1/2. Its a slow churn, and I'm seeing commercials buy this break, for future reference. Rice and beans had decent export shipments, good sales in beans as well. I don't believe any of our stocks are as high as posted, nor do I believe current yield projections, but this kettle will come to a boil slowly. Beans off a nickel, 889 1/4, as meal drops 2 bucks. China is allowing meal imports from Argentina you know. Might want to let that set in. China, who has protected its crush business throughout history, is allowing new meal imports. Maybe their stocks are way tighter than the government has let on. Trade deals are being cut, just not with the US. But they are dealing with us in good faith? Right. Somebody need to tell Mr. Trump to call me. Ill tell him what's really up their sleeve. Wheat off 4 1/2 to 477 1/4. Dow recovers yesterdays loss to 26,958, up 140 in another churn day. You cant sell low or buy high, chasing a trend, and expect to make money. They have your number. Bonds break a point and 28 tics in a hard down day, although I think its just noise in the upward move, 161.08.
Corn off 1/2 is a quiet day, 374 1/4. Rice down another 10 1/2 with the computers grind hunting the recent spec longs, 1189 1/2. Its a slow churn, and I'm seeing commercials buy this break, for future reference. Rice and beans had decent export shipments, good sales in beans as well. I don't believe any of our stocks are as high as posted, nor do I believe current yield projections, but this kettle will come to a boil slowly. Beans off a nickel, 889 1/4, as meal drops 2 bucks. China is allowing meal imports from Argentina you know. Might want to let that set in. China, who has protected its crush business throughout history, is allowing new meal imports. Maybe their stocks are way tighter than the government has let on. Trade deals are being cut, just not with the US. But they are dealing with us in good faith? Right. Somebody need to tell Mr. Trump to call me. Ill tell him what's really up their sleeve. Wheat off 4 1/2 to 477 1/4. Dow recovers yesterdays loss to 26,958, up 140 in another churn day. You cant sell low or buy high, chasing a trend, and expect to make money. They have your number. Bonds break a point and 28 tics in a hard down day, although I think its just noise in the upward move, 161.08.
9/24
Trump gave a great speech at the UN, so today Pelosi started a fake impeachment process she knows she cant win. Corn up a cent and a half, 374 3/4 with some talk of cold weather in the Dakotas and Nebraska next week. Imagine that, cold weather up north in October. Someone needs to get that little Euro girl to lecture South Dakota about cold weather and yield. I guess global warming didn't get the memo. Follow thru bean buying for 1 3/4 cents, 894 1/4. Rice computer bear program hunting the now absent bull and down 6 to 12 bucks even. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 481 3/4, just because. Dow in a big churn range but closes off 145 points, 26,818, while bonds continue up as expected, 163.04, up a point and 15 tics.
Trump gave a great speech at the UN, so today Pelosi started a fake impeachment process she knows she cant win. Corn up a cent and a half, 374 3/4 with some talk of cold weather in the Dakotas and Nebraska next week. Imagine that, cold weather up north in October. Someone needs to get that little Euro girl to lecture South Dakota about cold weather and yield. I guess global warming didn't get the memo. Follow thru bean buying for 1 3/4 cents, 894 1/4. Rice computer bear program hunting the now absent bull and down 6 to 12 bucks even. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 481 3/4, just because. Dow in a big churn range but closes off 145 points, 26,818, while bonds continue up as expected, 163.04, up a point and 15 tics.
9/23
Reports to start the week of China buying up to 10 cargos of beans out of the PNW brought a 9 3/4 cent rally, 892 1/2. Its pretty much a given that China will have to purchase a small amount of soy from us to bridge into new crop SA production, but I'm not getting that warm rosy feeling that they would do anything to help the sitting president that they don't have to, and they surely don't want to give up their current business R&D style, receive and duplicate. Corn follows for 2 1/2 to 373 1/4. Wheat slips 1 1/4 to 483 , because its wheat. See previous comments if necessary. Rice bull didn't defend, and bear put on the pressure, down 25 1/2 cents, 1206. Very dangerous knife to try to catch. Dow up 69 to 26,963 and bonds rally 25 tics, 161.21.
Reports to start the week of China buying up to 10 cargos of beans out of the PNW brought a 9 3/4 cent rally, 892 1/2. Its pretty much a given that China will have to purchase a small amount of soy from us to bridge into new crop SA production, but I'm not getting that warm rosy feeling that they would do anything to help the sitting president that they don't have to, and they surely don't want to give up their current business R&D style, receive and duplicate. Corn follows for 2 1/2 to 373 1/4. Wheat slips 1 1/4 to 483 , because its wheat. See previous comments if necessary. Rice bull didn't defend, and bear put on the pressure, down 25 1/2 cents, 1206. Very dangerous knife to try to catch. Dow up 69 to 26,963 and bonds rally 25 tics, 161.21.
9/20
Keynote to Friday trade is that china delegation cancels visits to Montana farms and going home early. Real story is china calls someone in Montana on Thursday to (try) to set up some farm tours, brings a package to DC they are pretty sure wont pass, and cancels fake tour Friday morning but gets negative publicity for sitting president on the way out. Never any mention of the negative ads in Iowa swinging the house in 18, and nothing about this to speak of. At the risk of being thrown into the political football game, time to start a running total of real China interference into American politics. I'll count this as a really big number one. Corn off a couple cents, 370 3/4. Rice bull pushes another 250 net longs but down a nickel for his trouble, 1231 1/2. Beans hit for 10 1/4 to 882 3/4, but meal only off a buck. Wheat gives up 3 3/4 to 484 1/4. With a total net short of 73K in the wheat complex and Chicago, minus 12k of the total, and now being a (trans-grain) contract, if you want to own wheat, why Chicago? Dow off 184 to 26,894 with worries about the weekend making the sideline attractive. Bonds up 12 tics, 160.28.
Keynote to Friday trade is that china delegation cancels visits to Montana farms and going home early. Real story is china calls someone in Montana on Thursday to (try) to set up some farm tours, brings a package to DC they are pretty sure wont pass, and cancels fake tour Friday morning but gets negative publicity for sitting president on the way out. Never any mention of the negative ads in Iowa swinging the house in 18, and nothing about this to speak of. At the risk of being thrown into the political football game, time to start a running total of real China interference into American politics. I'll count this as a really big number one. Corn off a couple cents, 370 3/4. Rice bull pushes another 250 net longs but down a nickel for his trouble, 1231 1/2. Beans hit for 10 1/4 to 882 3/4, but meal only off a buck. Wheat gives up 3 3/4 to 484 1/4. With a total net short of 73K in the wheat complex and Chicago, minus 12k of the total, and now being a (trans-grain) contract, if you want to own wheat, why Chicago? Dow off 184 to 26,894 with worries about the weekend making the sideline attractive. Bonds up 12 tics, 160.28.
9/19
Good exports hold the market. Corn up 1 1/2 to 372 3/4. Beans up 4 1/4 to 893, but meal didn't provide any help to the cause. Wheat off1 1/2 to 488 in its churn trade. Rice spec bull back again, adding to OI and gaining another 5 1/2 cents, 1236 1/2. That boy has some appetite. Dow up early but fades to 65 lower close, 27,078. Bonds up another 12 tics, 160.16.
Good exports hold the market. Corn up 1 1/2 to 372 3/4. Beans up 4 1/4 to 893, but meal didn't provide any help to the cause. Wheat off1 1/2 to 488 in its churn trade. Rice spec bull back again, adding to OI and gaining another 5 1/2 cents, 1236 1/2. That boy has some appetite. Dow up early but fades to 65 lower close, 27,078. Bonds up another 12 tics, 160.16.
9/18
Corn bounces 3 1/4 in the churn machine, 371 1/4. Wheat up 5 1/4 to 489 1/2 as the trap fills with more suckers for the next flush. Beans off a nickel, 888 3/4 with soft meal. Rice bull fires again with what seems like an unlimited supply of buying by someone who is immune to position limits, 1231, plus 3 1/2. To his credit, the US rice situation is bullish, just a bad time on the calendar to make the stand. Fed drops interest 1/4 point as expected and a soft dow rebounds to 33 higher, 27,143. Bonds up another 23 tics, 160.04.
Corn bounces 3 1/4 in the churn machine, 371 1/4. Wheat up 5 1/4 to 489 1/2 as the trap fills with more suckers for the next flush. Beans off a nickel, 888 3/4 with soft meal. Rice bull fires again with what seems like an unlimited supply of buying by someone who is immune to position limits, 1231, plus 3 1/2. To his credit, the US rice situation is bullish, just a bad time on the calendar to make the stand. Fed drops interest 1/4 point as expected and a soft dow rebounds to 33 higher, 27,143. Bonds up another 23 tics, 160.04.
9/17
Oil story settling down quickly, new sanctions against Iran, and grains set back from Mondays rally. Corn off 6 to 368. Beans drop 6 1/4 to 893 3/4 with meal soft again, but not terrible. Wheat slips 4 1/2 to 484 1/4. We have no severe weather and risk of a freeze is softening, so the computers will churn these markets up and down until there is an outside input that changes perceptions. Buy low, sell high, don't overthink, or just stay on the sidelines for a bit. Rice spec bull back again for solid volume and attempting to overrun the commercial sellers, 1227 1 /2, plus 6. Dow up 30 points, 27,110 and bonds recover another 14 tics, 159.13.
Oil story settling down quickly, new sanctions against Iran, and grains set back from Mondays rally. Corn off 6 to 368. Beans drop 6 1/4 to 893 3/4 with meal soft again, but not terrible. Wheat slips 4 1/2 to 484 1/4. We have no severe weather and risk of a freeze is softening, so the computers will churn these markets up and down until there is an outside input that changes perceptions. Buy low, sell high, don't overthink, or just stay on the sidelines for a bit. Rice spec bull back again for solid volume and attempting to overrun the commercial sellers, 1227 1 /2, plus 6. Dow up 30 points, 27,110 and bonds recover another 14 tics, 159.13.
9/16
Saudis get drone bombed in a few oil fields and production is temporarily shut in, but not expected to be a long term issue. Oil spikes, but the rest of the futures world is pretty steady. Corn up 5 1/4 on short covering, 374. Beans gain a penny and a quarter to nine bucks, but meal is soft. Whatever wheat closes 488 3/4, up 5 1/4 as the computers dress it up to draw suckers in before they flush it again. Rice off 4 to 1221 1/2 with the big spec continuing to fire buy bullets. Dow off 134 in a muted middle east response, 27,080, and oversold bonds bounce a point and 11 tics, 158.31.
Saudis get drone bombed in a few oil fields and production is temporarily shut in, but not expected to be a long term issue. Oil spikes, but the rest of the futures world is pretty steady. Corn up 5 1/4 on short covering, 374. Beans gain a penny and a quarter to nine bucks, but meal is soft. Whatever wheat closes 488 3/4, up 5 1/4 as the computers dress it up to draw suckers in before they flush it again. Rice off 4 to 1221 1/2 with the big spec continuing to fire buy bullets. Dow off 134 in a muted middle east response, 27,080, and oversold bonds bounce a point and 11 tics, 158.31.
9/13
Made it thru Friday the 13th pretty quietly. Mostly a continuation and confirmation day following Thursdays report. Corn up 1 1/2 more to 368 3/4 while wheat slips 1/4 to 483 1/2. Beans gain 3 1/4 to close 898 3/4 and don't seem to be afraid of 9 bucks at all. China will be taking beans and pork. 1225 Rice is up 7 1/2 as the spec seems willing to take on the commercial and open interest has another solid gain. Simple truth is 12 dollars doesn't shut off exports and we need to slow them down to make the pipeline numbers hold. Dow up 30 to 27,214 and bonds off 2.06 to 157.20. Ill repeat yesterdays quote for the bonds, catching this knife leads to bloody fingers. I do expect a 10 point rally from here though. On Trump and the tariffs, there is a world of difference between negotiations this year and last. South American production had a beautiful start with a solid expectation, so China negotiated for a delay to march, which was basically a free call we gave them by mistake if you remember, and We were supposed to upend the WTO rules, per the president of Argentina. SA produced, not much out of leveling the WTO field, and China could flip us the bird. This year, SA production start is on its heals at the very least, and we have short crops, going to get shorter. See the recent adjustments to rice and do the same for corn and beans, and all the sudden we don't need china much at all. The whole world is creeping to a recession, and that cuts much more deeply to exporters like china. Point is, this year Trump has the upper hand, and I hope and expect he plays his cards just a little better.
Made it thru Friday the 13th pretty quietly. Mostly a continuation and confirmation day following Thursdays report. Corn up 1 1/2 more to 368 3/4 while wheat slips 1/4 to 483 1/2. Beans gain 3 1/4 to close 898 3/4 and don't seem to be afraid of 9 bucks at all. China will be taking beans and pork. 1225 Rice is up 7 1/2 as the spec seems willing to take on the commercial and open interest has another solid gain. Simple truth is 12 dollars doesn't shut off exports and we need to slow them down to make the pipeline numbers hold. Dow up 30 to 27,214 and bonds off 2.06 to 157.20. Ill repeat yesterdays quote for the bonds, catching this knife leads to bloody fingers. I do expect a 10 point rally from here though. On Trump and the tariffs, there is a world of difference between negotiations this year and last. South American production had a beautiful start with a solid expectation, so China negotiated for a delay to march, which was basically a free call we gave them by mistake if you remember, and We were supposed to upend the WTO rules, per the president of Argentina. SA produced, not much out of leveling the WTO field, and China could flip us the bird. This year, SA production start is on its heals at the very least, and we have short crops, going to get shorter. See the recent adjustments to rice and do the same for corn and beans, and all the sudden we don't need china much at all. The whole world is creeping to a recession, and that cuts much more deeply to exporters like china. Point is, this year Trump has the upper hand, and I hope and expect he plays his cards just a little better.
9/12
USDA out with bullish rice numbers and up 8 1/2 to 1218 1/2 as a new long accumulates from commercials. Beans rip for 29 with a reduced carry over, and more importantly to me, room to tighten a good bit more, 895 1/2. Corn gets what some consider a bearish report but still up 7 1/4 cents, 367 1/4. Wheat gains 6 1/4 to 483 3/4. Switching financials to December, dow gains 57 points, 27,184 and bonds drop another point and 4 tics to 159.26. Catching this knife leads to bloody fingers.
USDA out with bullish rice numbers and up 8 1/2 to 1218 1/2 as a new long accumulates from commercials. Beans rip for 29 with a reduced carry over, and more importantly to me, room to tighten a good bit more, 895 1/2. Corn gets what some consider a bearish report but still up 7 1/4 cents, 367 1/4. Wheat gains 6 1/4 to 483 3/4. Switching financials to December, dow gains 57 points, 27,184 and bonds drop another point and 4 tics to 159.26. Catching this knife leads to bloody fingers.
9/11
Corn off a penny and a half to 360 pre report. Wheat loses 4 3/4 to 477 1/2. Beans down 5 1/2 as well. 866 1/2. Meal drops 3 bucks. Rice bull back for 8 cents, 1209 1/2. Lots of volume bought above 12 dollars, so the bull really needs a friendly report. Dow gains 250 on the day, 27,144 and bonds slip another 17 tics, 161.23. I find myself picking the bottom, but the chart still doesn't support me. Report at 11 tomorrow. Corn I walked today was even worse than I expected. We sure aren't going to make the usda numbers on that seed plot.
Corn off a penny and a half to 360 pre report. Wheat loses 4 3/4 to 477 1/2. Beans down 5 1/2 as well. 866 1/2. Meal drops 3 bucks. Rice bull back for 8 cents, 1209 1/2. Lots of volume bought above 12 dollars, so the bull really needs a friendly report. Dow gains 250 on the day, 27,144 and bonds slip another 17 tics, 161.23. I find myself picking the bottom, but the chart still doesn't support me. Report at 11 tomorrow. Corn I walked today was even worse than I expected. We sure aren't going to make the usda numbers on that seed plot.
9/10
Tuesday bounce saw corn make up all of the last weeks losses without big volume numbers, putting a lot of new shorts under water. 361 1/2, plus 7 1/4. Meal up 4 bucks as beans gain 14 1/4 to 872. Wheat up another 7 3/4 to 482 1/4 but maybe running out of steam. Rice short still covering along with a new long coming in, 1201 1/2, up 6 1/2. Commercial is still selling the market in the shadow market. 150 more yesterday buying puts and selling calls. Hard to believe they have no idea what the next report will bring. Dow up 54 to 26,894 and bonds down another point and 17 to 162.08.
Tuesday bounce saw corn make up all of the last weeks losses without big volume numbers, putting a lot of new shorts under water. 361 1/2, plus 7 1/4. Meal up 4 bucks as beans gain 14 1/4 to 872. Wheat up another 7 3/4 to 482 1/4 but maybe running out of steam. Rice short still covering along with a new long coming in, 1201 1/2, up 6 1/2. Commercial is still selling the market in the shadow market. 150 more yesterday buying puts and selling calls. Hard to believe they have no idea what the next report will bring. Dow up 54 to 26,894 and bonds down another point and 17 to 162.08.
9/09
Report week starts with the shorts willing to add to positions in corn at the lows, 354 1/4, off 1 1/4. Beans were a scratch at 857 3/4 with meal firm. Rice down 1 1/2 with the new buyer wanting to hold it here, and the commercial seller begging him to pay up another nickel. Wheat up 10 3/4 to 474 1/2 as it appears that Cargill is taking back their hard delivered against soft, as that saga continues. I know if I grew soft, I'd be a very squeaky wheel. This isn't doing the full carry boys any favors either. We start this week with about as favorable of weather as is possible to finish this crop projected for the next several weeks, and the thought that NASS could slightly raise planted corn acres, or at least will not lower them. Upside risk is a weather change, or a reduction in harvested acres or yield on Thursday. Downside is just how much the spec is willing to get short. Dow up 32 in a nothing day, 26,840, and bonds drop a point and 17 to 163.25. wouldn't expect much more downside in the bonds, but my chart says not to pick a bottom, so I wont.
Report week starts with the shorts willing to add to positions in corn at the lows, 354 1/4, off 1 1/4. Beans were a scratch at 857 3/4 with meal firm. Rice down 1 1/2 with the new buyer wanting to hold it here, and the commercial seller begging him to pay up another nickel. Wheat up 10 3/4 to 474 1/2 as it appears that Cargill is taking back their hard delivered against soft, as that saga continues. I know if I grew soft, I'd be a very squeaky wheel. This isn't doing the full carry boys any favors either. We start this week with about as favorable of weather as is possible to finish this crop projected for the next several weeks, and the thought that NASS could slightly raise planted corn acres, or at least will not lower them. Upside risk is a weather change, or a reduction in harvested acres or yield on Thursday. Downside is just how much the spec is willing to get short. Dow up 32 in a nothing day, 26,840, and bonds drop a point and 17 to 163.25. wouldn't expect much more downside in the bonds, but my chart says not to pick a bottom, so I wont.
9/06
Friday saw follow thru softness in the corn as we close 355 1/2, lower by 3 1/4 and below my low range. funds are now short 120K as of Tuesdays close(I'm still waiting for an explanation of why commitments are only thru Tuesday in todays computer age), and the weather shows good conditions for finishing out the crop. When its all said and done, yield will be lower, and harvested acreage will be lower than what is currently priced into the market. Rice unchanged, 1196 1/2, as the spec short continues to unwind into a willing and happy commercial seller. Funds appear to be full of short for now in the beans, minus 73K OI and 43K in the meal. Beans off 3 3/4 to 857 3/4. Beans will be the biggest short term winner when the first frost scare hits. CBOT soft/hard/whatever wheat off 2 1/2 to 463 3/4 with a spec OI of negative 21K, which isn't so bad until you remember KC hard has another 45K of short open interest. Minn is short 21K as well, so the funds and their marvelous quants have been well herded again. Cargill seems to be taking back their hard against soft deliveries, now the damage is done. Its just math stupid, will soon have to be replaced by its just math, sucker. Dow up 107 to 26,808 and bonds regain 20 tics to 165.10.
Friday saw follow thru softness in the corn as we close 355 1/2, lower by 3 1/4 and below my low range. funds are now short 120K as of Tuesdays close(I'm still waiting for an explanation of why commitments are only thru Tuesday in todays computer age), and the weather shows good conditions for finishing out the crop. When its all said and done, yield will be lower, and harvested acreage will be lower than what is currently priced into the market. Rice unchanged, 1196 1/2, as the spec short continues to unwind into a willing and happy commercial seller. Funds appear to be full of short for now in the beans, minus 73K OI and 43K in the meal. Beans off 3 3/4 to 857 3/4. Beans will be the biggest short term winner when the first frost scare hits. CBOT soft/hard/whatever wheat off 2 1/2 to 463 3/4 with a spec OI of negative 21K, which isn't so bad until you remember KC hard has another 45K of short open interest. Minn is short 21K as well, so the funds and their marvelous quants have been well herded again. Cargill seems to be taking back their hard against soft deliveries, now the damage is done. Its just math stupid, will soon have to be replaced by its just math, sucker. Dow up 107 to 26,808 and bonds regain 20 tics to 165.10.
9/05
Corn up 1/4 to close 358 3/4, but that was a soft close weighted down by beans. Meal dropped 3.50-$4 bucks and beans broke 14 to 861 1/2 as there is some differing stories out of Argentina to free up more exports. Mild weather for the next couple weeks not helping the bull story. Wheat bounces 5 1/2 as rumors that Cargill is taking back their hard wheat delivered against the soft contract. 466 1/4. Doesn't fix what is clearly broken. Rice off a couple cents to 1196 1/2 and a new long seems to continue to replace the commercial long, who is happy to take his money. Dow rocks up another 329 to 26,701 and air on the upside doesn't find many sellers. Bonds off 2 points and 2 tics, 164.22. Don't believe this reset to lower rates is over, but computers love to flush the short term players every chance they get.
Corn up 1/4 to close 358 3/4, but that was a soft close weighted down by beans. Meal dropped 3.50-$4 bucks and beans broke 14 to 861 1/2 as there is some differing stories out of Argentina to free up more exports. Mild weather for the next couple weeks not helping the bull story. Wheat bounces 5 1/2 as rumors that Cargill is taking back their hard wheat delivered against the soft contract. 466 1/4. Doesn't fix what is clearly broken. Rice off a couple cents to 1196 1/2 and a new long seems to continue to replace the commercial long, who is happy to take his money. Dow rocks up another 329 to 26,701 and air on the upside doesn't find many sellers. Bonds off 2 points and 2 tics, 164.22. Don't believe this reset to lower rates is over, but computers love to flush the short term players every chance they get.
9/04
Corn was off 2 1/2 to close Wednesday at 358 1/2, but the options boys are putting vol back into the market, and that is the money, so I don't see much downside from here. Been a bloody break though. Wheat up 7 1/4 to 460 3/4 as the dead cat bounces. Beans gain 7 to 875 1/2 on a $4 meal pop. .Rice gains a penny, 1198 1/2 as the commercial continues to sell to any buyer. Dow rallies 250 to chew thru upside air, 26,372 and bonds up a tic, 166.24.
Corn was off 2 1/2 to close Wednesday at 358 1/2, but the options boys are putting vol back into the market, and that is the money, so I don't see much downside from here. Been a bloody break though. Wheat up 7 1/4 to 460 3/4 as the dead cat bounces. Beans gain 7 to 875 1/2 on a $4 meal pop. .Rice gains a penny, 1198 1/2 as the commercial continues to sell to any buyer. Dow rallies 250 to chew thru upside air, 26,372 and bonds up a tic, 166.24.
9/03
I hope everyone had a great holiday. Leading off with wheat again, as every variety took another hit today. CBOT Soft only down 9 to 453 1/2 as most of the public doesn't understand that as of now, the soft contract is really a hard contract, or what ever is cheapest and hardest to move contract. its just where you dump it. If you must buy, use KC and/or understand you are probably trading a default feed product, not human consumption. If you don't believe me, ask Kraft. I'm so happy my base isn't really involved in what now passes for wheat. Corn down 8 3/4 to 361 with the wheat anchor around the neck, a make believe high production number, and a possible real reduction in ethanol demand. I can wait out the clowns in the room, but ethanol, and crude that it is really tied to, is the concern. Beans close 868 1/2, off 1/2 and the benefactor of reduced ethanol grind and really solid exports ex china. Rice up 2 to 1197 1/2 as the spec pays the commercial the toll for trying the downside, and getting poised to pay again for the upside. Dow off 284 on noise, 26,122 and bonds continue the long reset to lower rates with a 21 tic gain, 166.23.
I hope everyone had a great holiday. Leading off with wheat again, as every variety took another hit today. CBOT Soft only down 9 to 453 1/2 as most of the public doesn't understand that as of now, the soft contract is really a hard contract, or what ever is cheapest and hardest to move contract. its just where you dump it. If you must buy, use KC and/or understand you are probably trading a default feed product, not human consumption. If you don't believe me, ask Kraft. I'm so happy my base isn't really involved in what now passes for wheat. Corn down 8 3/4 to 361 with the wheat anchor around the neck, a make believe high production number, and a possible real reduction in ethanol demand. I can wait out the clowns in the room, but ethanol, and crude that it is really tied to, is the concern. Beans close 868 1/2, off 1/2 and the benefactor of reduced ethanol grind and really solid exports ex china. Rice up 2 to 1197 1/2 as the spec pays the commercial the toll for trying the downside, and getting poised to pay again for the upside. Dow off 284 on noise, 26,122 and bonds continue the long reset to lower rates with a 21 tic gain, 166.23.
8/30
Friday trade adjusting to deliveries in wheat, off 10 1/4 to 462 1/2. Corn clean up about finished, 369 3/4, off 1 1/2. Beans close up 1/2 cent, 869. Rice short covering continues as we close 80 cents higher than Tuesday. 1195 1/2. That's the thing to keep in mind in the grains until the harvest is in the bin. Shorts can keep hammering, but the door out is expensive. Dow up 28 points, 26,406, and bonds unchanged at 166.02.
Friday trade adjusting to deliveries in wheat, off 10 1/4 to 462 1/2. Corn clean up about finished, 369 3/4, off 1 1/2. Beans close up 1/2 cent, 869. Rice short covering continues as we close 80 cents higher than Tuesday. 1195 1/2. That's the thing to keep in mind in the grains until the harvest is in the bin. Shorts can keep hammering, but the door out is expensive. Dow up 28 points, 26,406, and bonds unchanged at 166.02.
8/29
Grain quotes shifted out of sept to nov or Dec as we are in deliveries and they were for the most part heavy. Corn spread weakened for new deliveries but Dec ended up 1/4 at 371 1/4 and OI issues are over. Trump talking up a coming ethanol plan. He really cant change it too much or we run out of corn. Bio grind is +-5500 now. Wheat off 2 1/2 to 472 3/4. Beans gain 2 3/4 to 868 1/2. Rice a strong 21 higher, 1185 1/2, but big volume and 750 options with declining OI in the ghost options market. Caution flag waving. Dow 26,378, up 341 and bonds fall 27 to 166.02.
Grain quotes shifted out of sept to nov or Dec as we are in deliveries and they were for the most part heavy. Corn spread weakened for new deliveries but Dec ended up 1/4 at 371 1/4 and OI issues are over. Trump talking up a coming ethanol plan. He really cant change it too much or we run out of corn. Bio grind is +-5500 now. Wheat off 2 1/2 to 472 3/4. Beans gain 2 3/4 to 868 1/2. Rice a strong 21 higher, 1185 1/2, but big volume and 750 options with declining OI in the ghost options market. Caution flag waving. Dow 26,378, up 341 and bonds fall 27 to 166.02.
8/28
Thursday is first intentions, so please make sure you are out of any sept contracts by the close. As an ex delivery specialist, I can walk you thru the process and explain into the minutia what is going on, But you really don't need the added headache. Or extra clearing house fees. Corn up 5 3/4 to 362 3/4, erasing the last week of computer grinding out the last of the old crop holdouts. Trump is putting together an ethanol plan, and other than the USDA, not a soul in America sees a rosy corn crop. Pockets of high yield are coming out right now, as expected of the early planted, but no home runs and lots of concern of just how bad the next wave will be, and the next after that, and then the wave that just wont make harvest. Beans up 6 1/2 to 852 3/4. Wheat off early but bounces to 472 1/4 off 1 1/2. Bonds held all of yesterdays rally and added 13 more, 166.29. Dow pumps up 293 to 26,037. Rice gains 18 1/2 to 1133 1/2 and OI is telling us we have a new bull in the game.
Thursday is first intentions, so please make sure you are out of any sept contracts by the close. As an ex delivery specialist, I can walk you thru the process and explain into the minutia what is going on, But you really don't need the added headache. Or extra clearing house fees. Corn up 5 3/4 to 362 3/4, erasing the last week of computer grinding out the last of the old crop holdouts. Trump is putting together an ethanol plan, and other than the USDA, not a soul in America sees a rosy corn crop. Pockets of high yield are coming out right now, as expected of the early planted, but no home runs and lots of concern of just how bad the next wave will be, and the next after that, and then the wave that just wont make harvest. Beans up 6 1/2 to 852 3/4. Wheat off early but bounces to 472 1/4 off 1 1/2. Bonds held all of yesterdays rally and added 13 more, 166.29. Dow pumps up 293 to 26,037. Rice gains 18 1/2 to 1133 1/2 and OI is telling us we have a new bull in the game.
8/27
Walked farm progress yesterday so I couldn't watch the detail of trade, but we are on clean up going into sept deliveries, so its pretty much autopilot anyway. 357 corn is off 1 1/2 with another 40K a day of sept futures to clean up over the next 3 days, when the commercial will fleece the farmer at probably about the low price of the year for his old crop inventory in all the HTA contracts. I can say that I can count on one hand the number of people I talked to at the show that believe the ending USDA production corn number, and still have 3 fingers left. Beans give back 7 1/2 to 846 1/4. Wheat up 3/4 to 473 3/4, and just plain cheap. Rice slips 7 to 1115, and OI is below receipt count, so the banksters like the rate, or are fronting for the commercial on this one already. No possible reason to be short Sept from here on. Dow off 199 to 25,744, and bonds pop a point and 13 tics, 166.16. Just a reminder that this is not a market to pick a top in yet.
Walked farm progress yesterday so I couldn't watch the detail of trade, but we are on clean up going into sept deliveries, so its pretty much autopilot anyway. 357 corn is off 1 1/2 with another 40K a day of sept futures to clean up over the next 3 days, when the commercial will fleece the farmer at probably about the low price of the year for his old crop inventory in all the HTA contracts. I can say that I can count on one hand the number of people I talked to at the show that believe the ending USDA production corn number, and still have 3 fingers left. Beans give back 7 1/2 to 846 1/4. Wheat up 3/4 to 473 3/4, and just plain cheap. Rice slips 7 to 1115, and OI is below receipt count, so the banksters like the rate, or are fronting for the commercial on this one already. No possible reason to be short Sept from here on. Dow off 199 to 25,744, and bonds pop a point and 13 tics, 166.16. Just a reminder that this is not a market to pick a top in yet.
8/26
Corn off 1 1/4 as we still have 160K of longs to spook out of September, and the cash boys will force old crop contracts out by Friday. 358 1/2. Wheat drops 2 1/4 to 473. Beans got a pop on some Trump G7 news, but really just oversold, 853 3/4, plus 10 1/2. Rice shorts on the hook at options expiration and we pop 24 to 1122. Same G7 comments got dow up 273 to 25,943 and bonds drop 14 tics to 165.03.
Corn off 1 1/4 as we still have 160K of longs to spook out of September, and the cash boys will force old crop contracts out by Friday. 358 1/2. Wheat drops 2 1/4 to 473. Beans got a pop on some Trump G7 news, but really just oversold, 853 3/4, plus 10 1/2. Rice shorts on the hook at options expiration and we pop 24 to 1122. Same G7 comments got dow up 273 to 25,943 and bonds drop 14 tics to 165.03.
8/23
Fear of expanded tariffs drive beans and corn lower, along with the dow. Dow hit for 555 to 25,670. Bonds up 1.14 in sympathy to 165.17. Meal under 290 as beans drop 12 3/4 to 843 3/4. Corn off 3 1/2 to 359 3/4. Wheat up 8 as no more sellers want to take the bait, 475 1/4. Rice up 11 to 1098 but make sure to stay below the $11 strike puts. Pretty large number of puts exercised that weren't in the money last Friday.
Fear of expanded tariffs drive beans and corn lower, along with the dow. Dow hit for 555 to 25,670. Bonds up 1.14 in sympathy to 165.17. Meal under 290 as beans drop 12 3/4 to 843 3/4. Corn off 3 1/2 to 359 3/4. Wheat up 8 as no more sellers want to take the bait, 475 1/4. Rice up 11 to 1098 but make sure to stay below the $11 strike puts. Pretty large number of puts exercised that weren't in the money last Friday.
8/22
Quiet day in corn with a 3/4 cent higher close, 363 1/4. Wheat gained 4 3/4 to 467 1/4. Meal only off a dollar, but beans settled softly, 856, minus 4 1/2. Rice short system added another 240 to OI on a 940 volume day but only got 4 cents for his effort, 1087. Commercials have to be loving this quant. BTW, almost as many options traded in the gray market you don't get to see as futures traded in the one you do. Dow off a point, 26,225, and bonds slip 23 tics to 164.03.
Quiet day in corn with a 3/4 cent higher close, 363 1/4. Wheat gained 4 3/4 to 467 1/4. Meal only off a dollar, but beans settled softly, 856, minus 4 1/2. Rice short system added another 240 to OI on a 940 volume day but only got 4 cents for his effort, 1087. Commercials have to be loving this quant. BTW, almost as many options traded in the gray market you don't get to see as futures traded in the one you do. Dow off a point, 26,225, and bonds slip 23 tics to 164.03.
8/21
Grains have a small bounce as we are globally competitive ex china and America is pretty good at adjusting to adversity. Thanks capitalism. Corn up 3 to 362 1/2 while wheat gains 2 1/2 to 462 1/2. Beans up another 4 3/4 to 860 1/2. Crop tour is forced to make guestimates on yield with some very immature samples. And even then, nothing to get excited about. I've said it privately, but I can make a case for a perceived global food crisis next year. But patience is tough. Rice bear hits hard again but only gets 7 lower for his troubles, 1091. I figure the big commercials have written well over 1000 puts in the grey market, but if you aren't part of the club, its probably not on your radar. I would expect the bear to keep firing, but I believe his program has a flaw, and I'm not paid to explain it to him. Dow rips up for 295 points as the wall street churn machine chews up a worried main street, and not a lot more, 26,226. Bonds slip 6 tics, 164.26.
Grains have a small bounce as we are globally competitive ex china and America is pretty good at adjusting to adversity. Thanks capitalism. Corn up 3 to 362 1/2 while wheat gains 2 1/2 to 462 1/2. Beans up another 4 3/4 to 860 1/2. Crop tour is forced to make guestimates on yield with some very immature samples. And even then, nothing to get excited about. I've said it privately, but I can make a case for a perceived global food crisis next year. But patience is tough. Rice bear hits hard again but only gets 7 lower for his troubles, 1091. I figure the big commercials have written well over 1000 puts in the grey market, but if you aren't part of the club, its probably not on your radar. I would expect the bear to keep firing, but I believe his program has a flaw, and I'm not paid to explain it to him. Dow rips up for 295 points as the wall street churn machine chews up a worried main street, and not a lot more, 26,226. Bonds slip 6 tics, 164.26.
8/20
Crop surveys are friendly, but much needed rain sweeping across the Midwest put pressure on corn again, 359 1/2, minus 5 1/2. We will be resetting options strategies late this week, or probably next week there to roll down to more favorable base. Wheat follows suit to 360, off 5 1/2 as well. Beans stayed firm with the USA about as cheap as anywhere to source, 855 3/4, plus 1 3/4, and the bean market setup is pretty friendly as well. Rice bear shot a lot more lead in the air for only a nickel drop, 1098, as the commercials lay their trap. Dow off 187 to 25,931 and bonds bounce 24 tics, 165 even.
Crop surveys are friendly, but much needed rain sweeping across the Midwest put pressure on corn again, 359 1/2, minus 5 1/2. We will be resetting options strategies late this week, or probably next week there to roll down to more favorable base. Wheat follows suit to 360, off 5 1/2 as well. Beans stayed firm with the USA about as cheap as anywhere to source, 855 3/4, plus 1 3/4, and the bean market setup is pretty friendly as well. Rice bear shot a lot more lead in the air for only a nickel drop, 1098, as the commercials lay their trap. Dow off 187 to 25,931 and bonds bounce 24 tics, 165 even.
8/19
Weaker Monday corn trade, off 6 to 365. Wheat in tow down 5 1/4, 465 1/2. Beans drop 13 1/4 to 854. Quiet market and new sellers still drinking the USDA Kool-Aid. Rice bear with lots of new shorts to put on at the lows put us down another 17 to 1103. Another 220 puts traded in the gray market. Dow up 211 to 26,118 and bond slip 1.10 to 164.08. Crop tour reports this week wont be bearish.,
Weaker Monday corn trade, off 6 to 365. Wheat in tow down 5 1/4, 465 1/2. Beans drop 13 1/4 to 854. Quiet market and new sellers still drinking the USDA Kool-Aid. Rice bear with lots of new shorts to put on at the lows put us down another 17 to 1103. Another 220 puts traded in the gray market. Dow up 211 to 26,118 and bond slip 1.10 to 164.08. Crop tour reports this week wont be bearish.,
8/16
Corn up 10 1/4 on lack of new selling to keep it down, 371. Beans up 9 1/4 as well, 867 1/4. Wheat closes 470 3/4, plus 1 3/4. New spec short continues his push Friday in rice, 1120, off 12. Looks to me like commercials sold another 350 puts in the gray market and commitments of traders has the commercial and large spec position back to some form of equilibrium. Rice can grind here for another 2 weeks, but only a fool would play the short from here down in any scale. Dow back up 332 to 25,907, and bonds slip 5 tics, 165.18.
Corn up 10 1/4 on lack of new selling to keep it down, 371. Beans up 9 1/4 as well, 867 1/4. Wheat closes 470 3/4, plus 1 3/4. New spec short continues his push Friday in rice, 1120, off 12. Looks to me like commercials sold another 350 puts in the gray market and commitments of traders has the commercial and large spec position back to some form of equilibrium. Rice can grind here for another 2 weeks, but only a fool would play the short from here down in any scale. Dow back up 332 to 25,907, and bonds slip 5 tics, 165.18.
8/15
Stocks looked lower and bonds higher early, but no continuation and a bounce for the dow to 25,575, up 120. Bonds close 26 tics higher, 165.23, but well off their highs. Corn seems to have run out of sellers 360 3/4, up 1 3/4. Wheat drifts 4 3/4 lower, 469. Dull drift lower in beans as well, 858, minus 7 1/2. Rice cash quiet and what appears to be a new seller hitting futures for 18 cents to 1132. This is noise. Turn the volume down and do the best you can with the crops and conditions you have to deal with. You will ultimately get paid by how well you nurture what you have, not the daily whims of some 29 year old math quant with no agriculture background. But patience sure is hard sometimes.
Stocks looked lower and bonds higher early, but no continuation and a bounce for the dow to 25,575, up 120. Bonds close 26 tics higher, 165.23, but well off their highs. Corn seems to have run out of sellers 360 3/4, up 1 3/4. Wheat drifts 4 3/4 lower, 469. Dull drift lower in beans as well, 858, minus 7 1/2. Rice cash quiet and what appears to be a new seller hitting futures for 18 cents to 1132. This is noise. Turn the volume down and do the best you can with the crops and conditions you have to deal with. You will ultimately get paid by how well you nurture what you have, not the daily whims of some 29 year old math quant with no agriculture background. But patience sure is hard sometimes.
8/14
Dow was the feature of the day, off 859 to 25,455 as global recession fears ramp up. Bonds gain another point and 31 tics to 164.29, and no, I'm not ready to call a top in that market. The strongest currency in the world should not be paying a premium to borrow. Interest is a tax that current situations globally don't mandate that the USA should pay. Trump is and has been right on that front. Corn off 7 to 359 in more liquidation, and beans dropped 10 3/4 to 865 1/2. Cant see much more downside in either. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 473 3/4 , and rice gains 4 1/2 to 1150 in featureless trade.
Dow was the feature of the day, off 859 to 25,455 as global recession fears ramp up. Bonds gain another point and 31 tics to 164.29, and no, I'm not ready to call a top in that market. The strongest currency in the world should not be paying a premium to borrow. Interest is a tax that current situations globally don't mandate that the USA should pay. Trump is and has been right on that front. Corn off 7 to 359 in more liquidation, and beans dropped 10 3/4 to 865 1/2. Cant see much more downside in either. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 473 3/4 , and rice gains 4 1/2 to 1150 in featureless trade.
8/13
Follow thru selling in corn as commercials buy, specs sell, and new specs trend follow short. We should get a very clear shot of this report in commitments this Friday, which is a bonus read. Corn down 19 1/4 to 366, below my calculations of most pain valuation, as new shorts need to be suckered in to fleece. Rice off 11 1/2 but low volume ex spread roll and bids under, 1145 1/2. Beans up 9 1/2 to 876 1/4 with meal gaining 6 dollars and report numbers being reviewed as friendly. Wheat up 1/4 to 472. Dow rocks 447 higher on delayed tariff talks, 26,314. Bonds take a 16 tic break to 162.30, but the reset to very low rates continues.
Follow thru selling in corn as commercials buy, specs sell, and new specs trend follow short. We should get a very clear shot of this report in commitments this Friday, which is a bonus read. Corn down 19 1/4 to 366, below my calculations of most pain valuation, as new shorts need to be suckered in to fleece. Rice off 11 1/2 but low volume ex spread roll and bids under, 1145 1/2. Beans up 9 1/2 to 876 1/4 with meal gaining 6 dollars and report numbers being reviewed as friendly. Wheat up 1/4 to 472. Dow rocks 447 higher on delayed tariff talks, 26,314. Bonds take a 16 tic break to 162.30, but the reset to very low rates continues.
8/12
Monday, bloody Monday. USDA put out corn acres that cant possibly blend with eyeball observations or record prevent plant at 90 million planted, and corn closes limit down, 385 1/4 and cheaper if you know how to traded options. Beans had a friendly report by all accounts, but down 12 1/4 with corn. Soft in wheat, 471 3/4, minus 27 3/4. Wheat and corn are fighting for feed, beans for and export market and reason to make more bean oil. Rice got a neutral/ friendly report and gained 20 cents, 1157. The rest of the world has small issues that can quickly morph into big issues, and I believe rice is picking up on that first as well. Using my most pain theory, grains should find a low today or tomorrow and just grind thru the end of the month. Dow got wacked for 401 to 25,867 and bonds gained 2.05 to 163.14 with global fears, china fears, and central bankers all in the mix. Options guys need to see private comments today.
Monday, bloody Monday. USDA put out corn acres that cant possibly blend with eyeball observations or record prevent plant at 90 million planted, and corn closes limit down, 385 1/4 and cheaper if you know how to traded options. Beans had a friendly report by all accounts, but down 12 1/4 with corn. Soft in wheat, 471 3/4, minus 27 3/4. Wheat and corn are fighting for feed, beans for and export market and reason to make more bean oil. Rice got a neutral/ friendly report and gained 20 cents, 1157. The rest of the world has small issues that can quickly morph into big issues, and I believe rice is picking up on that first as well. Using my most pain theory, grains should find a low today or tomorrow and just grind thru the end of the month. Dow got wacked for 401 to 25,867 and bonds gained 2.05 to 163.14 with global fears, china fears, and central bankers all in the mix. Options guys need to see private comments today.
8/09
More evening up Friday trade, with corn not willing to push higher for now, 410 1/4, off 3/4. 21K of OI erased. Wheat tried higher early as well but faded to 499 1/2, up a penny. Oil has been the strong leg as late and beans shorts the most nervous, Soy 879, plus 8 3/4. Couple hundred more 1160 rice calls bought, and it acts like a commercial buying, setting a floor and a 1 1/2 cent rally close, 1137. Commitments got a little better back in line with last weeks break as well. I expect rice numbers to be the least accurate Monday, but none will stand the test of time. You can write that down and call me in three months. Dow set back 97 points to 26,268, and bonds dropped 9 tics, 161.09.
More evening up Friday trade, with corn not willing to push higher for now, 410 1/4, off 3/4. 21K of OI erased. Wheat tried higher early as well but faded to 499 1/2, up a penny. Oil has been the strong leg as late and beans shorts the most nervous, Soy 879, plus 8 3/4. Couple hundred more 1160 rice calls bought, and it acts like a commercial buying, setting a floor and a 1 1/2 cent rally close, 1137. Commitments got a little better back in line with last weeks break as well. I expect rice numbers to be the least accurate Monday, but none will stand the test of time. You can write that down and call me in three months. Dow set back 97 points to 26,268, and bonds dropped 9 tics, 161.09.
8/08
Thursday provided another day of computer short grain covering because they couldn't get any new suckers on board, and herded out all the weaklings. Corn up 4 1/2 to 411. Beans gain 16 1/4 to 870 1/4, but meal only came along for a buck eighty. Wheat up 10 1/4 to 498 1/2. Rice had decent exports and talk of firmer Asian prices, but settled 1 1/2 lower, 1135 1/2. Commercial short isn't done yet. Bonds are off 2 1/2 points early but recover to only down 21 tics, 161.18. Dow puts on a bull show all day for a 425 point gain, 26,365 and mostly erasing the entire weeks noise.
Thursday provided another day of computer short grain covering because they couldn't get any new suckers on board, and herded out all the weaklings. Corn up 4 1/2 to 411. Beans gain 16 1/4 to 870 1/4, but meal only came along for a buck eighty. Wheat up 10 1/4 to 498 1/2. Rice had decent exports and talk of firmer Asian prices, but settled 1 1/2 lower, 1135 1/2. Commercial short isn't done yet. Bonds are off 2 1/2 points early but recover to only down 21 tics, 161.18. Dow puts on a bull show all day for a 425 point gain, 26,365 and mostly erasing the entire weeks noise.
8/07
Dow off more than 550 early but erases the whole loss to close 16 higher, 25,940. Bonds nearly posted a 164 handle, but retreated to 162.07, a point and 7 tics higher, acting like a rejection of the top, or at least a short term ceiling. If so, equities might have a green light until the next time someone says something stupid. Grains were weak early as markets in general looked unstable, but the day unfolded with the shorts reducing positions and paying a little to do so. Beans gain a penny, 854, although meal was soft. Rice stable to strong if only 3 higher, 1137 as we discussed internally. Corn up 2 1/2 to 406 1/2. Wheat rebounds 4 1/4 to 488 1/4.
Dow off more than 550 early but erases the whole loss to close 16 higher, 25,940. Bonds nearly posted a 164 handle, but retreated to 162.07, a point and 7 tics higher, acting like a rejection of the top, or at least a short term ceiling. If so, equities might have a green light until the next time someone says something stupid. Grains were weak early as markets in general looked unstable, but the day unfolded with the shorts reducing positions and paying a little to do so. Beans gain a penny, 854, although meal was soft. Rice stable to strong if only 3 higher, 1137 as we discussed internally. Corn up 2 1/2 to 406 1/2. Wheat rebounds 4 1/4 to 488 1/4.
8/06
Catch your breath day in ag. Corn off 1 1/4 to 404. Spread between low and high production guesses is about the total carry over. That's a new one. Beans slip 3 to 853 with quiet meal trade. Wheat spread reset part of the 10 1/2 cent drop, 484. Rice down 9 on another big volume day, both in futures and the "quiet market "options, 1134. Solid dow bounce after Mondays downdraft, 25,924, plus 374, but seemed forced by the end of the day. Bonds continue the expected reset up, 161 even, plus 9 tics.
Catch your breath day in ag. Corn off 1 1/4 to 404. Spread between low and high production guesses is about the total carry over. That's a new one. Beans slip 3 to 853 with quiet meal trade. Wheat spread reset part of the 10 1/2 cent drop, 484. Rice down 9 on another big volume day, both in futures and the "quiet market "options, 1134. Solid dow bounce after Mondays downdraft, 25,924, plus 374, but seemed forced by the end of the day. Bonds continue the expected reset up, 161 even, plus 9 tics.
8/05
China turning up the heat, and Trump standing his ground sets the equity house on fire for a 899 Dow loss to 25,550 with the requisite pop in the bonds to 160.23, up two full points and 4 tics. Grains started soft but the computers couldn't get the next seller to step up, so corn rallies 5 3/4 to 405 1/4. Beans ran a churn machine, but close up 1/4 cent, 856. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 494 1/2. Rice bear hammering the big spec bull position again for 27 1/2 to 1143. Options trade 1600 contracts that no one but the floor can see until late at night.. Think about the size of the shadow market that has been created with the club running the floor and the public pretty much in the dark. I can only shake my head.
China turning up the heat, and Trump standing his ground sets the equity house on fire for a 899 Dow loss to 25,550 with the requisite pop in the bonds to 160.23, up two full points and 4 tics. Grains started soft but the computers couldn't get the next seller to step up, so corn rallies 5 3/4 to 405 1/4. Beans ran a churn machine, but close up 1/4 cent, 856. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 494 1/2. Rice bear hammering the big spec bull position again for 27 1/2 to 1143. Options trade 1600 contracts that no one but the floor can see until late at night.. Think about the size of the shadow market that has been created with the club running the floor and the public pretty much in the dark. I can only shake my head.
8/02
Friday bounce in the grains, lead by wheat, caught everyone by surprise. Wheat gained 15 cents, 490 3/4. Corn rallied to 399 1/2, plus 6 3/4, but more importantly, upsetting the bear weekly chart and moving average that was the computer target. Beans up 3 to 855 3/4. Rice took another beating to 1170 1/2, minus 24 1/2, as the sell computer is hanging the spec long out to dry. Dow off 94 to close 26,449, but that was a solid 200 points off the lows. Bonds continue the upward reset, which was about as easy as ever to see coming, but not so easy to ride the long train all the way to the station, 158.19, up 29.
Friday bounce in the grains, lead by wheat, caught everyone by surprise. Wheat gained 15 cents, 490 3/4. Corn rallied to 399 1/2, plus 6 3/4, but more importantly, upsetting the bear weekly chart and moving average that was the computer target. Beans up 3 to 855 3/4. Rice took another beating to 1170 1/2, minus 24 1/2, as the sell computer is hanging the spec long out to dry. Dow off 94 to close 26,449, but that was a solid 200 points off the lows. Bonds continue the upward reset, which was about as easy as ever to see coming, but not so easy to ride the long train all the way to the station, 158.19, up 29.
8/01
Trump tariff the headline excuse for Thursday break. OI increases are showing that the grain break isn't just longs liquidating as keeps being written, but really the computers are selling more, adding to a winning short position, and doing the bullying they always do, to the weakest hand. We love it when they bully up, but cuss them on the way down. Also, we are worried about a 8/12 report that no one in the industry really has any faith in, oil crash that will have negative effects on ethanol demand, and fields that have grown enough to hide the blanks inside. Corn off 7 1/2 to 392 3/4, with wheat weaker by 11 1/2 to 475 3/4. Beans get smacked down 16 1/2 to 852 3/4 and meals drops 5 dollars. Rice stable up 1/2 cent, 1195. Asia weather and India price hikes getting some news. Dow off 312 to 26,543 and bonds gain 2.03 to 157.22 as everyone is worried about the Trump-China reset. Really, market was clearly tired at the top and bonds need to reset up as well.
Trump tariff the headline excuse for Thursday break. OI increases are showing that the grain break isn't just longs liquidating as keeps being written, but really the computers are selling more, adding to a winning short position, and doing the bullying they always do, to the weakest hand. We love it when they bully up, but cuss them on the way down. Also, we are worried about a 8/12 report that no one in the industry really has any faith in, oil crash that will have negative effects on ethanol demand, and fields that have grown enough to hide the blanks inside. Corn off 7 1/2 to 392 3/4, with wheat weaker by 11 1/2 to 475 3/4. Beans get smacked down 16 1/2 to 852 3/4 and meals drops 5 dollars. Rice stable up 1/2 cent, 1195. Asia weather and India price hikes getting some news. Dow off 312 to 26,543 and bonds gain 2.03 to 157.22 as everyone is worried about the Trump-China reset. Really, market was clearly tired at the top and bonds need to reset up as well.
7/31
Sorry, had a funeral today and this didn't get posted this morning. Month end selling continues, and OI is growing, not shrinking, so the funds are adding to a short position, betting they can blow out the long, and the USDA will be kind in its planting and yield numbers on 8/12. Corn off 11 to 400 1/4 and wheat in tow, a dime lower, 487 1/4. Switching to sept in beans as we are delivered fully current for august, 869, minus 15 1/4. Rice bear pushing the big long again for another 15 cent loss, 1194 1/2. Fed speak wasn't up to wall streets expectations, so bonds up 31 tics, 155.19, and the dow gets slapped for 309 points, 26,855.
Sorry, had a funeral today and this didn't get posted this morning. Month end selling continues, and OI is growing, not shrinking, so the funds are adding to a short position, betting they can blow out the long, and the USDA will be kind in its planting and yield numbers on 8/12. Corn off 11 to 400 1/4 and wheat in tow, a dime lower, 487 1/4. Switching to sept in beans as we are delivered fully current for august, 869, minus 15 1/4. Rice bear pushing the big long again for another 15 cent loss, 1194 1/2. Fed speak wasn't up to wall streets expectations, so bonds up 31 tics, 155.19, and the dow gets slapped for 309 points, 26,855.
7/30
Computers hunting lower lows as corn gets pushed to 411 1/4, off 5 3/4. Wheat came along in tow, 6 1/4 lower, 497 1/4. This kind of movement is why we like the Dec verticals internally. Instead of being down 20 cents or more and second guessing a long futures position, or worse, taking a loss, we are adding to better verts, conservatively and slowly. And comfortable doing it. Beans down 7 in front of deliveries with 400 new registered, 878 3/4., Meal down nearly 4 bucks and kicking the $300 door. Rice bull got spotted by a bear computer as weak today, as we had feared, and 21 1/2 lower, 1209 1/2, happened pretty easy on decent volume but not a big OI increase, flagging a correction to replace Fridays buy signal. Bull will need to defend, and quickly. Dow off 34 to 27,164, and bonds off 5 tics in a nothing trade.
Computers hunting lower lows as corn gets pushed to 411 1/4, off 5 3/4. Wheat came along in tow, 6 1/4 lower, 497 1/4. This kind of movement is why we like the Dec verticals internally. Instead of being down 20 cents or more and second guessing a long futures position, or worse, taking a loss, we are adding to better verts, conservatively and slowly. And comfortable doing it. Beans down 7 in front of deliveries with 400 new registered, 878 3/4., Meal down nearly 4 bucks and kicking the $300 door. Rice bull got spotted by a bear computer as weak today, as we had feared, and 21 1/2 lower, 1209 1/2, happened pretty easy on decent volume but not a big OI increase, flagging a correction to replace Fridays buy signal. Bull will need to defend, and quickly. Dow off 34 to 27,164, and bonds off 5 tics in a nothing trade.
7/29
Positive day to start the week in corn, 417, plus 2 1/2. Wheat gained 7 1/2 for a 503 1/2 close, and beans were up 2 1/2 to 885 3/4. Beans took another 18K hit to OI as people look to the sidelines. Rice bull back again, buying a net 545 contracts to 1231, up 11 1/2 and attracting commercial selling I believe, as well as some large size options trades. November is approaching $5.75 a bu. Dow up 49 points, 27,198, and bonds pick up 14 tics to 154.25.
Positive day to start the week in corn, 417, plus 2 1/2. Wheat gained 7 1/2 for a 503 1/2 close, and beans were up 2 1/2 to 885 3/4. Beans took another 18K hit to OI as people look to the sidelines. Rice bull back again, buying a net 545 contracts to 1231, up 11 1/2 and attracting commercial selling I believe, as well as some large size options trades. November is approaching $5.75 a bu. Dow up 49 points, 27,198, and bonds pick up 14 tics to 154.25.
7/26
Friday sees long liquidation as corn falls another 4 cents, 414 1/2. Oats off 6. Beans up 3/4 to 883 1/4 but the spec long liquidated 27K of OI. That's computer churn at its finest. Wheat down 3 1/2 to 496. Global wheat getting some friendly stories, but we are still surplus. Rice bull buys another 400 to get us up 7 cents, 1219 1/2. That's like a spec adding 100K corn in a day, in percentage terms. As long as he keeps buying, we keep going up, but it gets ugly when rain starts in Thailand, or he just runs out of bullets. Dow quietly up 53 to 27,149, and bonds up a tic, 154.11.
Friday sees long liquidation as corn falls another 4 cents, 414 1/2. Oats off 6. Beans up 3/4 to 883 1/4 but the spec long liquidated 27K of OI. That's computer churn at its finest. Wheat down 3 1/2 to 496. Global wheat getting some friendly stories, but we are still surplus. Rice bull buys another 400 to get us up 7 cents, 1219 1/2. That's like a spec adding 100K corn in a day, in percentage terms. As long as he keeps buying, we keep going up, but it gets ugly when rain starts in Thailand, or he just runs out of bullets. Dow quietly up 53 to 27,149, and bonds up a tic, 154.11.
7/25
Bears got corn below 420 they were hunting for, 418 1/2, minus 5 1/2. Now a hunt for 413 and $4. Beans hit for 8 1/2 to 882 1/2 with a weak meal trade again. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 499 1/2 in a clean up trade, but still below 5 bucks. Rice bulls added nearly 400, or 1/2 the total volume, as we build more into a classic large spec against commercial trade. Will the specs keep coming and overwhelm the commercial, making for silly season in basis? With harvest dialing up this weekend, odds aren't with the spec on this one. Specs probably need to understand an old tool called the calendar, or else keep firing bigger numbers as we go up. Upside down pyramids don't stand up too well. Dow sets back 141 on weak earnings form companies like Tesla, go figure. 27,096. Bonds back off 16 to 154.10. Remember most pain options are 155 and 156 tomorrow.
Bears got corn below 420 they were hunting for, 418 1/2, minus 5 1/2. Now a hunt for 413 and $4. Beans hit for 8 1/2 to 882 1/2 with a weak meal trade again. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 499 1/2 in a clean up trade, but still below 5 bucks. Rice bulls added nearly 400, or 1/2 the total volume, as we build more into a classic large spec against commercial trade. Will the specs keep coming and overwhelm the commercial, making for silly season in basis? With harvest dialing up this weekend, odds aren't with the spec on this one. Specs probably need to understand an old tool called the calendar, or else keep firing bigger numbers as we go up. Upside down pyramids don't stand up too well. Dow sets back 141 on weak earnings form companies like Tesla, go figure. 27,096. Bonds back off 16 to 154.10. Remember most pain options are 155 and 156 tomorrow.
7/24
More talk of another China meeting pushing out weak shorts put beans up 5 1/4 to 891 on a declining OI and no meal help. That's what churning computers do and you are going to get tired of me pointing out the obvious over the next year. Wheat up 10 1/2 to 497 3/4, ad regardless of the stories, market had no new suckers to rope on the short side after Mondays break. Corn tried to be higher early, but just couldn't find supporters, 424, off 1 1/2. Rice bull program bought another 300, so about 1600 extras by my count since he started to add to a smaller long, 1203 1/2, plus 6 1/2. Dow sets back 87 to 27,237 and these high prices make the next leg up a little harder to push without some fresh money time always provides. Bonds gain back 17 tics to 154.26. Most pain options expiration Friday will be 155 or 156.
More talk of another China meeting pushing out weak shorts put beans up 5 1/4 to 891 on a declining OI and no meal help. That's what churning computers do and you are going to get tired of me pointing out the obvious over the next year. Wheat up 10 1/2 to 497 3/4, ad regardless of the stories, market had no new suckers to rope on the short side after Mondays break. Corn tried to be higher early, but just couldn't find supporters, 424, off 1 1/2. Rice bull program bought another 300, so about 1600 extras by my count since he started to add to a smaller long, 1203 1/2, plus 6 1/2. Dow sets back 87 to 27,237 and these high prices make the next leg up a little harder to push without some fresh money time always provides. Bonds gain back 17 tics to 154.26. Most pain options expiration Friday will be 155 or 156.
7/23
Computers just working the churn and feeling out which side will be easier to push next. Corn up and down but back up 3 1/4 for a 425 1/2 close. Wheat unchanged on the day after a yoyo trade, 487 1/4. Beans slip 2 1/2 to 885 3/4 and meal looses 2 dollars. There was an announcement that we would send a delegation over to china next week to work on trade. If there really is 20 million in prevent plant acres this year, I'd tell China to pound sand. In fact, that is basically what I suggested 2 months ago. Rice bull back pushing today 5 higher, 1197, with international water shortage stories in India, Indonesia, and Thailand, but a local cash market that is dead and a new short selling system seeming to push back. Good earnings help the dow up 148 to 27,324, while the bonds give up 21 tics, 154.09.
Computers just working the churn and feeling out which side will be easier to push next. Corn up and down but back up 3 1/4 for a 425 1/2 close. Wheat unchanged on the day after a yoyo trade, 487 1/4. Beans slip 2 1/2 to 885 3/4 and meal looses 2 dollars. There was an announcement that we would send a delegation over to china next week to work on trade. If there really is 20 million in prevent plant acres this year, I'd tell China to pound sand. In fact, that is basically what I suggested 2 months ago. Rice bull back pushing today 5 higher, 1197, with international water shortage stories in India, Indonesia, and Thailand, but a local cash market that is dead and a new short selling system seeming to push back. Good earnings help the dow up 148 to 27,324, while the bonds give up 21 tics, 154.09.
7/22
Benign weather as expected Sunday with some solid rains thru the I 80 corridor and north made for easy pickings of the weak bulls by the computers. Wheat bloodied for 15 1/4 to 487 1/4. Beans take a 13 1/4 hit, 888 1/4. Corn down 8 1/2 to settle 422 1/4. Now for the good, bad, and ugly. Good is you could see this one coming a mile away and it pushes prices back to where we can start looking at verticals and other long side trades more seriously. Bad is there are churning systems looking for another weak sucker to rob. Ugly is a potential 50 cents further down some systems see across the board, so patience and prudence is required these next few weeks. Stairs up, elevator down if they can pull it off, although OI says they aren't ready to commit too much on the down side yet. Rice bull shows up early and often, taking out offers above, only to be rebuffed to a 2 1/2 cent lower close, 1192. We need something to happen in cash pretty soon. Dow quietly up 46 points to 27,176. Bonds gain 6 tics, 154.30.
Benign weather as expected Sunday with some solid rains thru the I 80 corridor and north made for easy pickings of the weak bulls by the computers. Wheat bloodied for 15 1/4 to 487 1/4. Beans take a 13 1/4 hit, 888 1/4. Corn down 8 1/2 to settle 422 1/4. Now for the good, bad, and ugly. Good is you could see this one coming a mile away and it pushes prices back to where we can start looking at verticals and other long side trades more seriously. Bad is there are churning systems looking for another weak sucker to rob. Ugly is a potential 50 cents further down some systems see across the board, so patience and prudence is required these next few weeks. Stairs up, elevator down if they can pull it off, although OI says they aren't ready to commit too much on the down side yet. Rice bull shows up early and often, taking out offers above, only to be rebuffed to a 2 1/2 cent lower close, 1192. We need something to happen in cash pretty soon. Dow quietly up 46 points to 27,176. Bonds gain 6 tics, 154.30.
7/19
Friday corn pops 6 1/4 to 430 3/4, but on decreased OI, reminding us yet again of computer churn concerns. Wheat was good fro 9 as well, 502 1/2. Beans put on a 20 1/4 run with talk of china sales and a week worth of sellers to flush, 901 1/2. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1194 1/2 and commitments showed us the large spec buyer is in fact back pushing the long side, at least for now. Bond off 7 tics in dead trade, 154.24. Dow sets back 71 to 27,130 with worries about Iran leading the desire to clean the books for the weekend. It never seems to cost much to take the weekend off, so why carry the risk? I guess ultimately it still pays, but some weekends are a harder sweat than others.
Friday corn pops 6 1/4 to 430 3/4, but on decreased OI, reminding us yet again of computer churn concerns. Wheat was good fro 9 as well, 502 1/2. Beans put on a 20 1/4 run with talk of china sales and a week worth of sellers to flush, 901 1/2. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1194 1/2 and commitments showed us the large spec buyer is in fact back pushing the long side, at least for now. Bond off 7 tics in dead trade, 154.24. Dow sets back 71 to 27,130 with worries about Iran leading the desire to clean the books for the weekend. It never seems to cost much to take the weekend off, so why carry the risk? I guess ultimately it still pays, but some weekends are a harder sweat than others.
7/18
Soft exports weren't unexpected, but were weight on the market Thursday. Wheat was the weakest as global prices are still in flux, 493 1/2, off 12. Its the easiest contract to hit, by design. Corn followed off 11 1/2 to 424 1/2. Some would like to test 420 and maybe $4 next week. Beans down enough for now, 881 1/4. minus 1 1/4. Rice up 7 1/2 on more Iraq stories and lack of new selling. The hurricane was mostly a non event. Dow quietly off 30 points, 27.201, and bonds gain 7 tics, 154.31.
Soft exports weren't unexpected, but were weight on the market Thursday. Wheat was the weakest as global prices are still in flux, 493 1/2, off 12. Its the easiest contract to hit, by design. Corn followed off 11 1/2 to 424 1/2. Some would like to test 420 and maybe $4 next week. Beans down enough for now, 881 1/4. minus 1 1/4. Rice up 7 1/2 on more Iraq stories and lack of new selling. The hurricane was mostly a non event. Dow quietly off 30 points, 27.201, and bonds gain 7 tics, 154.31.
7/17
Churn day in ag as the computers start to really measure up how committed the bulls are. Corn up 3/4 to 436 as the small uptrend line held. Rice gained 3 cents, 1181 1/2 with more Iraq talk. Wheat slips a couple to 505 1/2 and beans fade 5 1/4 lower, 882 1/2 with a softening late meal trade. Dow off 97 on what is perceived to be a back and fill action, 27,231, but bonds up a full point and 04 to 154.24 says the dow might bear watching. Bond bounce was due.
Churn day in ag as the computers start to really measure up how committed the bulls are. Corn up 3/4 to 436 as the small uptrend line held. Rice gained 3 cents, 1181 1/2 with more Iraq talk. Wheat slips a couple to 505 1/2 and beans fade 5 1/4 lower, 882 1/2 with a softening late meal trade. Dow off 97 on what is perceived to be a back and fill action, 27,231, but bonds up a full point and 04 to 154.24 says the dow might bear watching. Bond bounce was due.
7/16
Corn off 5 3/4 to 435 1/4, but well off the lows, which held my uptrend line. Same story in wheat, off 1/4 cent, 507 1/2. Beans drop another 14 on liquidation and 3 buck lower meal, 887 3/4. Rice bull didn't support and futures broke a dime, 1178 1/2. Stories about more sales to Iraq. Dow off 14 to 27,328, and bonds slip 14 tics to 153.20.
Corn off 5 3/4 to 435 1/4, but well off the lows, which held my uptrend line. Same story in wheat, off 1/4 cent, 507 1/2. Beans drop another 14 on liquidation and 3 buck lower meal, 887 3/4. Rice bull didn't support and futures broke a dime, 1178 1/2. Stories about more sales to Iraq. Dow off 14 to 27,328, and bonds slip 14 tics to 153.20.
7/15
Bears came out Monday, and the bulls looked tired. Wheat hit hardest after a weak showing from Friday left it most vulnerable, 507 3/4, down 15 1/4, and that was on increasing open interest so we are seeing new shorts wanting in the game. Corn gets hit for 13 1/4 to 441. Computers don't see mangy fields, and really don't care. Beans fall 11 1/2 to 901 3/4 with meal falling more than 3 dollars. Rice off 2 to 1188 1/2 and the bull bought another 200 new longs to support it, along with options players for 200 calls and a hundred puts. We are seeing diverging opinions about to collide. Quiet dow day up 33 to 27,342 and bonds close 11 higher, 154.02, a point from the lows again, and I don't like seeing those kinds of rallies jut to get a few higher on a day.
Bears came out Monday, and the bulls looked tired. Wheat hit hardest after a weak showing from Friday left it most vulnerable, 507 3/4, down 15 1/4, and that was on increasing open interest so we are seeing new shorts wanting in the game. Corn gets hit for 13 1/4 to 441. Computers don't see mangy fields, and really don't care. Beans fall 11 1/2 to 901 3/4 with meal falling more than 3 dollars. Rice off 2 to 1188 1/2 and the bull bought another 200 new longs to support it, along with options players for 200 calls and a hundred puts. We are seeing diverging opinions about to collide. Quiet dow day up 33 to 27,342 and bonds close 11 higher, 154.02, a point from the lows again, and I don't like seeing those kinds of rallies jut to get a few higher on a day.
7/12
Corn goes into the weekend up a dime, 454 1/4 with another 20K increase of OI, and managed money about 225K long by my numbers. Wheat only 1 1/2 cents of follow thru, 523. Beans pop 14 1/4 to 913 1/4 and wow are there a lot of reports of crappy looking bean fields. Rice slips 2 1/2 to 1090 1/2 and that's with another 200 new longs. Cant make sense of commitments this week. Dow lights it up for 232 points, 27,309 and bonds close 6 higher, 153.23. That's nearly a point off the low of the day.
Corn goes into the weekend up a dime, 454 1/4 with another 20K increase of OI, and managed money about 225K long by my numbers. Wheat only 1 1/2 cents of follow thru, 523. Beans pop 14 1/4 to 913 1/4 and wow are there a lot of reports of crappy looking bean fields. Rice slips 2 1/2 to 1090 1/2 and that's with another 200 new longs. Cant make sense of commitments this week. Dow lights it up for 232 points, 27,309 and bonds close 6 higher, 153.23. That's nearly a point off the low of the day.
7/11
WASDE numbers didn't disappoint, but trade did. Bearish increase in corn stocks coupled with a silly high production number should have sent the market reeling, but instead we close 9 1/4 higher, 444 1/4, and the N/U spread goes positive. That's demand baby, both current and deferred, as well as computers signaling that they don't believe the USDA either. Wheat was oversold coming in, got a slightly friendly report, and sept jumps 16 3/4 to 521 1/2. More impressive, N/U spread goes 15 cents positive. Beans get the most friendly report but only gain 4 1/2 to 899. Like the other grains WASDE used NASS numbers for rice, but they wisely inflated exports and domestic and residual to offset what would have been a goofy carry over number, also pulled forward a reduction in carry in stocks we were expecting for next months report when it no longer matters. When we ultimately get lower acres and yield, you can bet exports and domestic consumption will go back down like clockwork. It has to or we will literally run out. Dow sets a record close of 27,077, plus 217 and bonds break another point and 4 tics to 153.17. I would expect tomorrow to be the last day before either the dow stops going up, or bonds stop going down. Pick your poison.
WASDE numbers didn't disappoint, but trade did. Bearish increase in corn stocks coupled with a silly high production number should have sent the market reeling, but instead we close 9 1/4 higher, 444 1/4, and the N/U spread goes positive. That's demand baby, both current and deferred, as well as computers signaling that they don't believe the USDA either. Wheat was oversold coming in, got a slightly friendly report, and sept jumps 16 3/4 to 521 1/2. More impressive, N/U spread goes 15 cents positive. Beans get the most friendly report but only gain 4 1/2 to 899. Like the other grains WASDE used NASS numbers for rice, but they wisely inflated exports and domestic and residual to offset what would have been a goofy carry over number, also pulled forward a reduction in carry in stocks we were expecting for next months report when it no longer matters. When we ultimately get lower acres and yield, you can bet exports and domestic consumption will go back down like clockwork. It has to or we will literally run out. Dow sets a record close of 27,077, plus 217 and bonds break another point and 4 tics to 153.17. I would expect tomorrow to be the last day before either the dow stops going up, or bonds stop going down. Pick your poison.
7/10
Last trading day before one of the most anticipated and questioned reports in years. I can almost guarantee that the country wont be satisfied, but the computers wont care. Corn bounces 2 1/2 cents, 435. Wheat gains 2 as well, 504 3/4. Beans continue up 8 1/2 to 894 1/2 as some shorts still looking for the sidelines, but an increase in new longs as well. Computer in rice bumping against resistance as expected, but with a decent volume add got the market 4 higher, 1192 1/2. I'm thinking without an added friendly report form the USDA, which would be unexpected, rice has created the most air below. Dow up 81 on very friendly Powell testimony, 26,860, and bonds somewhat surprisingly off 14 tics to 154.21.
Last trading day before one of the most anticipated and questioned reports in years. I can almost guarantee that the country wont be satisfied, but the computers wont care. Corn bounces 2 1/2 cents, 435. Wheat gains 2 as well, 504 3/4. Beans continue up 8 1/2 to 894 1/2 as some shorts still looking for the sidelines, but an increase in new longs as well. Computer in rice bumping against resistance as expected, but with a decent volume add got the market 4 higher, 1192 1/2. I'm thinking without an added friendly report form the USDA, which would be unexpected, rice has created the most air below. Dow up 81 on very friendly Powell testimony, 26,860, and bonds somewhat surprisingly off 14 tics to 154.21.
7/09
Tuesday trade saw corn continue its reset lower in front of a perceived bearish WASDE report on Thursday. 432 1/2, minus 7. Wheat followed in lockstep to 502 3/4, off 8 1/4. Beans popped 7 to 886 and I believe the floor continues to rise in beans with the realization that making 50 BPA is going to be difficult this year. Also the pill to swallow that unplanted acres cant yield anything. Not saying we cant break, and I can make a case for a 50 cent drop, but its still a very long year with a lot of production and consumption variables, both here and abroad. Rice bull computer is still pushing up as AI can see more clearly than the USDA right now, but the computer is hitting against a more solid wall now. 1188 1/2, plus 15 1/2. Dow off 14 points in front of Powell testimony, 26,779, and bond churn off 10 tics, 155.03.
Tuesday trade saw corn continue its reset lower in front of a perceived bearish WASDE report on Thursday. 432 1/2, minus 7. Wheat followed in lockstep to 502 3/4, off 8 1/4. Beans popped 7 to 886 and I believe the floor continues to rise in beans with the realization that making 50 BPA is going to be difficult this year. Also the pill to swallow that unplanted acres cant yield anything. Not saying we cant break, and I can make a case for a 50 cent drop, but its still a very long year with a lot of production and consumption variables, both here and abroad. Rice bull computer is still pushing up as AI can see more clearly than the USDA right now, but the computer is hitting against a more solid wall now. 1188 1/2, plus 15 1/2. Dow off 14 points in front of Powell testimony, 26,779, and bond churn off 10 tics, 155.03.
7/08
Monday trade, in like a lion, out like a lamb. Sorry, just trying to bring in a few of the spring adages that we normally use but couldn't this year into the dialogue. Corn opened stronger over night, but faded throughout the day to 3/4 higher, 439 1/2. The ugly stepsister with better exports, but in the throws of harvest, wheat, lost 4 cents to 511. Beans up 3 to 879. Rice most pain computer system saw weakness in the sellers, and ran futures up 23 cents to 1173. Cash didn't seem interested. Dow drifts off 92 points, 26793 and the bond churn machine up 14 tics, 155.13. Went over to Indiana again yesterday. Cant use canopy and beans in the same sentence still. Far away the most variable of a corn crop I have ever seen, and I hear the same story all over the country. With that said, I expect bearish corn and rice reports this Thursday, and computers don't have eyes.
Monday trade, in like a lion, out like a lamb. Sorry, just trying to bring in a few of the spring adages that we normally use but couldn't this year into the dialogue. Corn opened stronger over night, but faded throughout the day to 3/4 higher, 439 1/2. The ugly stepsister with better exports, but in the throws of harvest, wheat, lost 4 cents to 511. Beans up 3 to 879. Rice most pain computer system saw weakness in the sellers, and ran futures up 23 cents to 1173. Cash didn't seem interested. Dow drifts off 92 points, 26793 and the bond churn machine up 14 tics, 155.13. Went over to Indiana again yesterday. Cant use canopy and beans in the same sentence still. Far away the most variable of a corn crop I have ever seen, and I hear the same story all over the country. With that said, I expect bearish corn and rice reports this Thursday, and computers don't have eyes.
7/05
No one really wanting to commit in Friday trade with a weak open, but wheat closing up a penny, 515, and corn gaining a couple cents to 438 3/4 on strong basis, especially from Indiana east. That strong basis seems to line up pretty well with where most of the people on the ground(excluding NASS) seem to think there will be a significant stocks and production shortfall. Time will tell. Rice up 10 1/2 to 1150 and the bear better reload soon if the heat he was throwing earlier is to continue. Big spec long may have already left town. OI below 5800 and concerning. China said they expect a rollback of all tariffs to continue negotiations, which isn't going to happen and they know that, so beans drop to 876, down 13 3/4. Meal off $2. Dow backs up 85 points to 26,885, and bonds take a point and 22 tic slam to 154.31. Talking heads saying FED may not cut anymore, but all we really did was run the churn machine all week for literally one tic. Monday close, 155 even. Well, at least the computers and Duke & Duke made money.
No one really wanting to commit in Friday trade with a weak open, but wheat closing up a penny, 515, and corn gaining a couple cents to 438 3/4 on strong basis, especially from Indiana east. That strong basis seems to line up pretty well with where most of the people on the ground(excluding NASS) seem to think there will be a significant stocks and production shortfall. Time will tell. Rice up 10 1/2 to 1150 and the bear better reload soon if the heat he was throwing earlier is to continue. Big spec long may have already left town. OI below 5800 and concerning. China said they expect a rollback of all tariffs to continue negotiations, which isn't going to happen and they know that, so beans drop to 876, down 13 3/4. Meal off $2. Dow backs up 85 points to 26,885, and bonds take a point and 22 tic slam to 154.31. Talking heads saying FED may not cut anymore, but all we really did was run the churn machine all week for literally one tic. Monday close, 155 even. Well, at least the computers and Duke & Duke made money.
7/03
Shortened holiday trade and a firm cash market brought buyers to the table, and sellers, especially the AI most pain computer systems, went into hiding. Corn ran 17 3/4 cents to 436 3/4 and with basis gain isn't too far away from cash highs. Rice acted like the short ran out of specs to flush today and late buyers found very little for sale. 11.39 1/2, plus 13. Beans regained yesterdays dime to 889 3/4. Wheat up 10 3/4 to 514. Dow continues the upward march to record highs, 26,970, and bonds up another 18 tics, 156.21. Happy fourth.
Shortened holiday trade and a firm cash market brought buyers to the table, and sellers, especially the AI most pain computer systems, went into hiding. Corn ran 17 3/4 cents to 436 3/4 and with basis gain isn't too far away from cash highs. Rice acted like the short ran out of specs to flush today and late buyers found very little for sale. 11.39 1/2, plus 13. Beans regained yesterdays dime to 889 3/4. Wheat up 10 3/4 to 514. Dow continues the upward march to record highs, 26,970, and bonds up another 18 tics, 156.21. Happy fourth.
7/02
Corn acts like it is finding a floor, 419, 3 1/2 better. Wheat still searching and with harvest pressure, 503 1/4, off 8 1/2. Bean break trying to catch up with Mondays soft meal, 879 3/4 for a dime loss. Rice bear computer system found a weak spot as it hunts the large spec long, hoping the spec is just a quant, and not a real trader. 1126 1/2, minus 25 1/2. Dow up 97 to 26,797, and bonds resume their march higher, 156.03 for a point and 3 tic gain.
Corn acts like it is finding a floor, 419, 3 1/2 better. Wheat still searching and with harvest pressure, 503 1/4, off 8 1/2. Bean break trying to catch up with Mondays soft meal, 879 3/4 for a dime loss. Rice bear computer system found a weak spot as it hunts the large spec long, hoping the spec is just a quant, and not a real trader. 1126 1/2, minus 25 1/2. Dow up 97 to 26,797, and bonds resume their march higher, 156.03 for a point and 3 tic gain.
7/01
Continuation post report weakness. Corn off 9 1/4 to 415 1/2, and wheat down harder, 511 3/4, weaker by 15 1/2. Beans drop 14 3/4 to 889 3/4 with meal 8 dollars softer. Rice slips 5 1/2 to 1152. Bulls just need to set back and let the bears run thru the shop. No good trying to clean up while the stampede is in full swing. Nothing exploded over the weekend, so dow up 107 to 26,700, and bonds drop 19 tics in this short down leg of upward churn, 155 even.
Continuation post report weakness. Corn off 9 1/4 to 415 1/2, and wheat down harder, 511 3/4, weaker by 15 1/2. Beans drop 14 3/4 to 889 3/4 with meal 8 dollars softer. Rice slips 5 1/2 to 1152. Bulls just need to set back and let the bears run thru the shop. No good trying to clean up while the stampede is in full swing. Nothing exploded over the weekend, so dow up 107 to 26,700, and bonds drop 19 tics in this short down leg of upward churn, 155 even.
6/28
Planting intentions were a bit of a surprise to say the least. If the concern of moving the USDA out of DC is that the employees would become out of touch with what is going on in the country, it might be too late. Apparently Ohio only lost 200K corn acres. Wonder which county they counting stopped at. You boys in Indiana got every corn acre in. Every last one. Arkansas supposedly planted more long grain rice than I suspect the state will harvest of all rice combined, and we are fairly certain that medium acres are up. In beans, if you grow north of I 80, you don't really know how to run a planter. The only takeaway from this report is that there has been a good deal of confusion sewn, and that means opportunity. Funny how the reports lined up with spec open interest.. Corn OI, plus 190K, corn down 21 to 424 3/4 on silly high planted acres. Wheat, with an inherent short base due to carry, off 19 1/2 to 527 1/4, abet tied to corn, but positive 30K OI. Beans with a still negative OI of 34K, up 10 3/4 to 904 1/2. Meal was up $2. Hugely bearish rice acres, on the last day to sign up for the pool coincidentally, but 8 higher close, 1157 1/2. Guess that didn't help sign up any. Dow in a regular, quiet, small up Friday, 26,593, plus 47, and bonds slip 4 tics to 155.19.
Planting intentions were a bit of a surprise to say the least. If the concern of moving the USDA out of DC is that the employees would become out of touch with what is going on in the country, it might be too late. Apparently Ohio only lost 200K corn acres. Wonder which county they counting stopped at. You boys in Indiana got every corn acre in. Every last one. Arkansas supposedly planted more long grain rice than I suspect the state will harvest of all rice combined, and we are fairly certain that medium acres are up. In beans, if you grow north of I 80, you don't really know how to run a planter. The only takeaway from this report is that there has been a good deal of confusion sewn, and that means opportunity. Funny how the reports lined up with spec open interest.. Corn OI, plus 190K, corn down 21 to 424 3/4 on silly high planted acres. Wheat, with an inherent short base due to carry, off 19 1/2 to 527 1/4, abet tied to corn, but positive 30K OI. Beans with a still negative OI of 34K, up 10 3/4 to 904 1/2. Meal was up $2. Hugely bearish rice acres, on the last day to sign up for the pool coincidentally, but 8 higher close, 1157 1/2. Guess that didn't help sign up any. Dow in a regular, quiet, small up Friday, 26,593, plus 47, and bonds slip 4 tics to 155.19.
6/27
Pre report and first intentions clean up day, and switching to September for corn, wheat, and rice, august for beans. Corn off 3 3/4 to 445 3/4. Beans down 6 for a 893 3/4 settle. Wheat up 1/4 to 546 3/4, but a dime off the high. Rice bear trap ran out of steam for the day, and popped 15 cents, 1149 1/2. Pretty solid deliveries in corn and rice, with new registrations in rice. I wish someone would explain to my why an elevator registers more of a product to deliver when they are being paid well to market it themselves by full carry. It that's not a sign something's broke, I don't know what is. Up and down churn in the dow, 26.546, off 4 points, and bonds gain back 24 tics, 155.23. All eyes on the 11 o'clock report.
Pre report and first intentions clean up day, and switching to September for corn, wheat, and rice, august for beans. Corn off 3 3/4 to 445 3/4. Beans down 6 for a 893 3/4 settle. Wheat up 1/4 to 546 3/4, but a dime off the high. Rice bear trap ran out of steam for the day, and popped 15 cents, 1149 1/2. Pretty solid deliveries in corn and rice, with new registrations in rice. I wish someone would explain to my why an elevator registers more of a product to deliver when they are being paid well to market it themselves by full carry. It that's not a sign something's broke, I don't know what is. Up and down churn in the dow, 26.546, off 4 points, and bonds gain back 24 tics, 155.23. All eyes on the 11 o'clock report.
6/26
Beans were the drag on trade, 9 1/4 lower, 894 1/4. Meal off another couple bucks as well. Corn leaked 4 1/4 to 443 1/4. Wheat stood alone 543 3/4, higher by 8 and again pointing at India water problems in my book. As we clean up positions in front of deliveries, rice is down 5 1/2 to $11 even. Only 1100 July open and down to 6800 total OI, so I expect no fireworks in deliveries this cycle at full carry. Dow slipped 12 points to 26,550, and bonds got hit for 30 tics, 154.31.
Beans were the drag on trade, 9 1/4 lower, 894 1/4. Meal off another couple bucks as well. Corn leaked 4 1/4 to 443 1/4. Wheat stood alone 543 3/4, higher by 8 and again pointing at India water problems in my book. As we clean up positions in front of deliveries, rice is down 5 1/2 to $11 even. Only 1100 July open and down to 6800 total OI, so I expect no fireworks in deliveries this cycle at full carry. Dow slipped 12 points to 26,550, and bonds got hit for 30 tics, 154.31.
6/25
Corn struggles to stay higher, 447 1/2, plus 3/4. Rice slips 12 1/2 to 1105 1/2, below $5 a bu., on more spread roll and liquidation, no fresh India talk, as well as computer hunting the spec long. Meal off a couple dollars and beans drop 5 1/2 to 903 1/2. Wheat down 2 1/4 to 535 3/4. Dow slides 200 points to 26,562 as the talking TV heads are now realizing what I mentioned last week about the Fed maybe not being so quick to drop rates, or as aggressive., Bonds up 16 tics, 155.29.
Corn struggles to stay higher, 447 1/2, plus 3/4. Rice slips 12 1/2 to 1105 1/2, below $5 a bu., on more spread roll and liquidation, no fresh India talk, as well as computer hunting the spec long. Meal off a couple dollars and beans drop 5 1/2 to 903 1/2. Wheat down 2 1/4 to 535 3/4. Dow slides 200 points to 26,562 as the talking TV heads are now realizing what I mentioned last week about the Fed maybe not being so quick to drop rates, or as aggressive., Bonds up 16 tics, 155.29.
6/24
Planted acres were almost an exercise in futility, but maybe they are giving us a glimmer of what the 28th will bring. Weekend weather nothing great, and corn gains 4 1/2 to 446 3/4. Beans up 6 1/4 to 909. Wheat pops 12 on the first talk of India monsoon failure, 538. This has the potential to be the real ag story of the crop year if they stay dry over there. Rice off 11 1/2 for a 1118 settle as the computer does what the computer is trained to do, when the calendar tells it to do it. Dow up 65 points, 26,762 and the bonds recover most of Fridays losses, 155.13, plus 26 tics.
Planted acres were almost an exercise in futility, but maybe they are giving us a glimmer of what the 28th will bring. Weekend weather nothing great, and corn gains 4 1/2 to 446 3/4. Beans up 6 1/4 to 909. Wheat pops 12 on the first talk of India monsoon failure, 538. This has the potential to be the real ag story of the crop year if they stay dry over there. Rice off 11 1/2 for a 1118 settle as the computer does what the computer is trained to do, when the calendar tells it to do it. Dow up 65 points, 26,762 and the bonds recover most of Fridays losses, 155.13, plus 26 tics.
6/21
Corn down 7 3/4 to 442 1/4 with a 40K decline in OI and computers happy to churn you out on an options expiration Friday. Surprising that not one option really got pinned. Wheat off 1/2 in its own little world, 526. 17K OI decline. Meal takes a 7 buck slap and beans follow, 12 3/4 lower, 902 3/4. 30K decline in OI. Rice steps away from the 20 pin to close 1129 1/2, plus 7 and another 115 vs cash to go with the 200 earlier this week. Million bushels here, half mil there, pretty soon it adds up. Dow off 77 points, 26,697, and bonds give up a point and 4 tics to 154.19. Bonds are calling out all the TV talking heads screeching for 2 fed fund drops this year. Just one week of signals, but if this continues much more, don't be looking for the FED to do much cutting.
Corn down 7 3/4 to 442 1/4 with a 40K decline in OI and computers happy to churn you out on an options expiration Friday. Surprising that not one option really got pinned. Wheat off 1/2 in its own little world, 526. 17K OI decline. Meal takes a 7 buck slap and beans follow, 12 3/4 lower, 902 3/4. 30K decline in OI. Rice steps away from the 20 pin to close 1129 1/2, plus 7 and another 115 vs cash to go with the 200 earlier this week. Million bushels here, half mil there, pretty soon it adds up. Dow off 77 points, 26,697, and bonds give up a point and 4 tics to 154.19. Bonds are calling out all the TV talking heads screeching for 2 fed fund drops this year. Just one week of signals, but if this continues much more, don't be looking for the FED to do much cutting.
6/20
Solid 9 cent bounce in corn, 450, even with poor export sales is the Thursday trade feature. With lots of uncertainty, the computers will churn this market for the foreseeable future, so buy low and sell high. I know how that sounds, but you need to let the inventory go on rallies and re-own on breaks. There will be several opportunities. Wheat gets dragged along for 4 1/4 to 526 1/2. Meal lit up again for 6 bucks and beans popped 12 1/4 to 915 1/2. Rice is facing a Friday options pin and the computer took us there, 1122 1/2, off 14. Dow up 238 to26,774 and bonds up another 9 tics, 155.23.
Solid 9 cent bounce in corn, 450, even with poor export sales is the Thursday trade feature. With lots of uncertainty, the computers will churn this market for the foreseeable future, so buy low and sell high. I know how that sounds, but you need to let the inventory go on rallies and re-own on breaks. There will be several opportunities. Wheat gets dragged along for 4 1/4 to 526 1/2. Meal lit up again for 6 bucks and beans popped 12 1/4 to 915 1/2. Rice is facing a Friday options pin and the computer took us there, 1122 1/2, off 14. Dow up 238 to26,774 and bonds up another 9 tics, 155.23.
6/19
Corn down another 8 3/4 to 441 as some of the froth comes out of the market. Wheat follows in lockstep as expected, 522 1/4, off 9 1/4. With wheat as a feed competitor to corn at these prices, expect them to stay locked together. Beans drop 10 1/4 to 903 1/4 with a 5 buck hit to meal and pure liquidation of longs in July. Short computer seller in rice is active again, pushing weaker longs into resting defense bids. 1136 1/2, down 20. More full carry spread roll as well. Dow took a breather to close 26,536, up 32, and the bonds gain 14 tics to 155.14. Fed did nothing as expected here at Malcom Ag Group, even though there was much hand rubbing on the street. Bond trade leading up pretty much broadcast the non event, but then it just shows when there is no story, one must be created. Speaking of bonds, June had a funny expiration, and I wasn't watching it directly to get a read, but the settles did catch my attention for later.
Corn down another 8 3/4 to 441 as some of the froth comes out of the market. Wheat follows in lockstep as expected, 522 1/4, off 9 1/4. With wheat as a feed competitor to corn at these prices, expect them to stay locked together. Beans drop 10 1/4 to 903 1/4 with a 5 buck hit to meal and pure liquidation of longs in July. Short computer seller in rice is active again, pushing weaker longs into resting defense bids. 1136 1/2, down 20. More full carry spread roll as well. Dow took a breather to close 26,536, up 32, and the bonds gain 14 tics to 155.14. Fed did nothing as expected here at Malcom Ag Group, even though there was much hand rubbing on the street. Bond trade leading up pretty much broadcast the non event, but then it just shows when there is no story, one must be created. Speaking of bonds, June had a funny expiration, and I wasn't watching it directly to get a read, but the settles did catch my attention for later.
6/18
Corn off a nickel, 449 3/4 as multiple stories of how NASS and the USDA report planting progress have some wild variances to what the final planted acres are. Most stories are actually wildly bullish, but the market is top heavy right now, and I personally disagree with the goofy high prevent numbers anyway. Rice off a nickel as well, 1156 1/2 with more size spread roll and selling into the defensive bids. Wheat down 8 as another proxy for corn and some decent harvest stories, 531 1/2. Beans churn and get 3/4 higher on the day, 913 1/2, even with meal off a couple bucks. Guess where the last of the spec shorts are. Fed might ease today(I think they will wait but offer softer wording) and China is talking again, so dow pops 366 to 26,504. Bonds up 12 tics to 155 even but well off the highs, almost like a buy the rumor and sell the fact trade.
Corn off a nickel, 449 3/4 as multiple stories of how NASS and the USDA report planting progress have some wild variances to what the final planted acres are. Most stories are actually wildly bullish, but the market is top heavy right now, and I personally disagree with the goofy high prevent numbers anyway. Rice off a nickel as well, 1156 1/2 with more size spread roll and selling into the defensive bids. Wheat down 8 as another proxy for corn and some decent harvest stories, 531 1/2. Beans churn and get 3/4 higher on the day, 913 1/2, even with meal off a couple bucks. Guess where the last of the spec shorts are. Fed might ease today(I think they will wait but offer softer wording) and China is talking again, so dow pops 366 to 26,504. Bonds up 12 tics to 155 even but well off the highs, almost like a buy the rumor and sell the fact trade.
6/17
Corn trading like the April weather we are experiencing, in like a lion and out like a lamb. Close is 454 3/4, up 1 3/4, but a dime off early highs and acting weak. Tuesday needs to find its feet, and overnight trade isn't helping. At some point the world will remember we have a significant carryover. Wheat followed lockstep as expected, 539 1/2, up a penny but a dime off its highs as well. Beans were the shining light as computers will try to flush that short next, 512 3/4, 16 cents higher but meal didn't play at all. Take note of that in the big picture if we see a repeat of that style trade Tuesday. Rice closes 1161 1/2, off 2 1/2 with more big spread roll at carry, and a scale down buyer in July. Wonder if the other grains roll over how long it will take the defender to get covered up? Switching to September in the financials, Dow up 10 points to 26,138, and bonds gain 9 tics to 154.20.
Corn trading like the April weather we are experiencing, in like a lion and out like a lamb. Close is 454 3/4, up 1 3/4, but a dime off early highs and acting weak. Tuesday needs to find its feet, and overnight trade isn't helping. At some point the world will remember we have a significant carryover. Wheat followed lockstep as expected, 539 1/2, up a penny but a dime off its highs as well. Beans were the shining light as computers will try to flush that short next, 512 3/4, 16 cents higher but meal didn't play at all. Take note of that in the big picture if we see a repeat of that style trade Tuesday. Rice closes 1161 1/2, off 2 1/2 with more big spread roll at carry, and a scale down buyer in July. Wonder if the other grains roll over how long it will take the defender to get covered up? Switching to September in the financials, Dow up 10 points to 26,138, and bonds gain 9 tics to 154.20.
6/14
Week ended with strong gains in corn to 4.53, plus 11. Wheat pulled along for 3 cents, 538.5, and now pretty much a feed competitor to corn as its primary under footing. Beans up 8 3/4 to 896 3/4 looking at a wet weekend of delayed planting. Rice slips a penny to 1164 with a long spread roll the feature. Dow up 6 to 26,123, and bonds gain 2 tics to 154.08. Will switch the financials to September on Monday.
Week ended with strong gains in corn to 4.53, plus 11. Wheat pulled along for 3 cents, 538.5, and now pretty much a feed competitor to corn as its primary under footing. Beans up 8 3/4 to 896 3/4 looking at a wet weekend of delayed planting. Rice slips a penny to 1164 with a long spread roll the feature. Dow up 6 to 26,123, and bonds gain 2 tics to 154.08. Will switch the financials to September on Monday.
6/12
Follow thru buying in the corn, with the expected pop in OI showing up, 430, plus 2 1/4 and should now have the large spec long over 100K net from a record short when this ball started. Bean short cover showed up in force with an 18 3/4 cent pop to 878, and thoughts that we could test $9. Wheat trying to catch up with corn as a feed replacement and trading in air, 526 1/4, plus 8 1/4. Rice bear didn't get the long to puke, and market rallied 16 1/2 back up to where we run into some selling, 1174. Dow off 53 points, 26,012, and bonds trade flat, 154.08.
Follow thru buying in the corn, with the expected pop in OI showing up, 430, plus 2 1/4 and should now have the large spec long over 100K net from a record short when this ball started. Bean short cover showed up in force with an 18 3/4 cent pop to 878, and thoughts that we could test $9. Wheat trying to catch up with corn as a feed replacement and trading in air, 526 1/4, plus 8 1/4. Rice bear didn't get the long to puke, and market rallied 16 1/2 back up to where we run into some selling, 1174. Dow off 53 points, 26,012, and bonds trade flat, 154.08.
6/11
Wasde came in with a solid corn adjustment in acres(down 3 million to PP), but especially yield, dropping 10 bu. per acre. Corn up 12 to 427 3/4. To be honest, I expected a 50K bump in OI, but what I found was a 50K drop in July, so we had quite a few shorts betting a frail USDA would show up, and a solid one did instead. Beans had a nothing report and closed 859 1/4, up 3/4. Wheat traded with corn and ended at 518, plus 10 1/2. Computers sniffed out a little weakness in the rice spec long, and pushed down today 19 1/2 cents, 1157 1/2. With the spread approaching carry, not much trouble rolling if the spec has patience. That's a mighty big IF you got there, son. Dow 21 lower, 26,065 and nearly 200 off the highs, as bonds stall and wind up with a 4 tic gain, 154.08.
Wasde came in with a solid corn adjustment in acres(down 3 million to PP), but especially yield, dropping 10 bu. per acre. Corn up 12 to 427 3/4. To be honest, I expected a 50K bump in OI, but what I found was a 50K drop in July, so we had quite a few shorts betting a frail USDA would show up, and a solid one did instead. Beans had a nothing report and closed 859 1/4, up 3/4. Wheat traded with corn and ended at 518, plus 10 1/2. Computers sniffed out a little weakness in the rice spec long, and pushed down today 19 1/2 cents, 1157 1/2. With the spread approaching carry, not much trouble rolling if the spec has patience. That's a mighty big IF you got there, son. Dow 21 lower, 26,065 and nearly 200 off the highs, as bonds stall and wind up with a 4 tic gain, 154.08.
6/10
Monday opened weaker with weekend work stories, but rallied thru the day to steady, firm. Corn unchanged, 415 3/4. Wheat gains 3 to 507 1/2, and beans up 2 1/4 to 858 1/2. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1177. This is all a prelude to the wasde report at 11, which absolutely no one in the entire world believes to be accurate. Dow well off the highs, but still 79 higher, 26,086. Bonds give back Friday trade to 154.04, off a point 02.
Monday opened weaker with weekend work stories, but rallied thru the day to steady, firm. Corn unchanged, 415 3/4. Wheat gains 3 to 507 1/2, and beans up 2 1/4 to 858 1/2. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1177. This is all a prelude to the wasde report at 11, which absolutely no one in the entire world believes to be accurate. Dow well off the highs, but still 79 higher, 26,086. Bonds give back Friday trade to 154.04, off a point 02.
6/07
Expectations for an aggressive weekend of planting keeping pressure on Friday trade. Corn off 4 3/4 to 415 3/4. Commercial sold 90K on the week while funds bought 100K. Beans take the biggest price hit, 856 1/4, minus 12 1/2. Wheat slips 5 1/2 to 504 1/2. Rice down a penny, 1172 1/2. Looks by OI like July may clean itself up after all. Dow continues the upward momentum to 26,007, up 262 and bonds continue the lower interest rate reset to 155.06, up a full point and making trade from Mondays close thru Fridays close nothing but pure churn. Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. Hello Hal.
Expectations for an aggressive weekend of planting keeping pressure on Friday trade. Corn off 4 3/4 to 415 3/4. Commercial sold 90K on the week while funds bought 100K. Beans take the biggest price hit, 856 1/4, minus 12 1/2. Wheat slips 5 1/2 to 504 1/2. Rice down a penny, 1172 1/2. Looks by OI like July may clean itself up after all. Dow continues the upward momentum to 26,007, up 262 and bonds continue the lower interest rate reset to 155.06, up a full point and making trade from Mondays close thru Fridays close nothing but pure churn. Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. Hello Hal.
6/06
Corn checks the gap and bounces to 420 1/2, plus 5 3/4. Rice up 9 to 1173 1/2 and more strange don't short me signals coming from july. Beans off a penny, 868 3/4, and officially taking over the title of dog grain from wheat for the foreseeable future. Wheat up 19 1/4 to 510 as the computers broadcast again for those who don't want to admit, Hal is in control. Dow up 187 to 25,745 and bonds gain 4 tics, 154.06.
Corn checks the gap and bounces to 420 1/2, plus 5 3/4. Rice up 9 to 1173 1/2 and more strange don't short me signals coming from july. Beans off a penny, 868 3/4, and officially taking over the title of dog grain from wheat for the foreseeable future. Wheat up 19 1/4 to 510 as the computers broadcast again for those who don't want to admit, Hal is in control. Dow up 187 to 25,745 and bonds gain 4 tics, 154.06.
6/05
Wednesday soft trade in the grains as the computers sense the bullish fever is starting to subside. Corn off 10 1/2 to 414 3/4. Oat trade sloppy as well. Beans drop 12 to 869 3/4. Wheat takes it on the chin for 16 1/2 cents, 490 3/4 and KC was much worse. Rice off 3 1/2 to 1164 1/2. Dow puts on another really strong day up 212 to 25,558. Bonds off 9 tics, 154.02.
Wednesday soft trade in the grains as the computers sense the bullish fever is starting to subside. Corn off 10 1/2 to 414 3/4. Oat trade sloppy as well. Beans drop 12 to 869 3/4. Wheat takes it on the chin for 16 1/2 cents, 490 3/4 and KC was much worse. Rice off 3 1/2 to 1164 1/2. Dow puts on another really strong day up 212 to 25,558. Bonds off 9 tics, 154.02.
6/04
Planted acres gave a false pop early in the grains, but fade ensued. Corn gave up a dime to close a penny higher, 425 1/2. Beans up 2 3/4 to 881 3/4 and wheat takes a hit for 12 1/2 to 507 1/4. Increases for OI for all three means the systems set the hook on the late longs, and now will chew them up. Dead rice day at 1168, off 1 1/2, and curious signals in July. Wouldn't be short that spread for the next week. Dow popped 477 to 25,346 with make up stories as necessary to catch shorts, and the bonds take a 29 tic breather from their march higher, 154.11.
Planted acres gave a false pop early in the grains, but fade ensued. Corn gave up a dime to close a penny higher, 425 1/2. Beans up 2 3/4 to 881 3/4 and wheat takes a hit for 12 1/2 to 507 1/4. Increases for OI for all three means the systems set the hook on the late longs, and now will chew them up. Dead rice day at 1168, off 1 1/2, and curious signals in July. Wouldn't be short that spread for the next week. Dow popped 477 to 25,346 with make up stories as necessary to catch shorts, and the bonds take a 29 tic breather from their march higher, 154.11.
6/03
Rice bid up to resistance, 24 higher, 1169 1/2. Corn slips 2 3/4 to 424 1/4, while beans close 879, up 1 1/4. Mexico tariffs causing pause. Wheat gets a computer run to 519 3/4, up 16 3/4. Dow up 49 to 24,869 and bonds up another 28 tics to 155.08.
Rice bid up to resistance, 24 higher, 1169 1/2. Corn slips 2 3/4 to 424 1/4, while beans close 879, up 1 1/4. Mexico tariffs causing pause. Wheat gets a computer run to 519 3/4, up 16 3/4. Dow up 49 to 24,869 and bonds up another 28 tics to 155.08.
5/31
Fear of a new Mexico tariff and their retaliation leads market trade for Friday. Pretty big weekly runs with room for profit taking as well. New corn buyer takes a break and we fade 9 1/4 on the day, 427. Meal off 6 bucks as beans drop 11 1/4 to 877 3/4. Small slip in OI in wheat and a 11 1/2 cent drop in futures to 503. Rice would be hit hardest with an expanded Mexico issue, and was off 20 1/2 cents to 1145 1/2. More bond rate reset and some flight to quality with bonds up a point and 10 tics to 154.12, while the dow drops 370 points to 24,820.
Fear of a new Mexico tariff and their retaliation leads market trade for Friday. Pretty big weekly runs with room for profit taking as well. New corn buyer takes a break and we fade 9 1/4 on the day, 427. Meal off 6 bucks as beans drop 11 1/4 to 877 3/4. Small slip in OI in wheat and a 11 1/2 cent drop in futures to 503. Rice would be hit hardest with an expanded Mexico issue, and was off 20 1/2 cents to 1145 1/2. More bond rate reset and some flight to quality with bonds up a point and 10 tics to 154.12, while the dow drops 370 points to 24,820.
5/30
Its still raining with more in the forecast. Remember some computer systems make their money just being short, and some NEED churn. We are in the hands of the computers that NEED churn. And they are very good at creating churn. You better trade accordingly. Corn up 17 1/2 to 436 1/4. Beans gain 17 to 889 on another 8 bucks rally in meal. Wheat hooked the mid day sellers and posted 24 cents gain, 514 1/2. Just another example of the computers catching you if you come back to the well too often. Rice flat and July leaks a nickel with spread roll, 1166, with Arkansas cash boys full for the moment and not getting a slice of the Iraq pie. Dow up 81 in a dead cat bounce, 25,190. Bonds continue the lower interest reset, up 10 tics to 153.02.
Its still raining with more in the forecast. Remember some computer systems make their money just being short, and some NEED churn. We are in the hands of the computers that NEED churn. And they are very good at creating churn. You better trade accordingly. Corn up 17 1/2 to 436 1/4. Beans gain 17 to 889 on another 8 bucks rally in meal. Wheat hooked the mid day sellers and posted 24 cents gain, 514 1/2. Just another example of the computers catching you if you come back to the well too often. Rice flat and July leaks a nickel with spread roll, 1166, with Arkansas cash boys full for the moment and not getting a slice of the Iraq pie. Dow up 81 in a dead cat bounce, 25,190. Bonds continue the lower interest reset, up 10 tics to 153.02.
5/29
Corn explodes in the overnight session but all the suckers for now are in the boat, so its time for the computer churn to rape and pillage. 418 3/4, off 1 1/2 with the first OI drop of the move. Rice gains 6 1/2 to 1171 1/2 with an increase in open interest and some vs cash. Announcement of 120K of rice to Iraq. Beans OI finally up almost 10K marking the new suckers there, but meal held 6 bucks higher as beans gain 16 to close 872. Its still raining. Wheat OI continuing to peal off and the highs of last night firmly rejected,490 1/2, minus 14 1/4. Dow off 260 to 25,109 and bonds gain 23 tics to 152.24. Global economy is expected to tighten, and China has been spreading around money for their silk road military cover, and that probably will slow down. Dow PE is a little rich for my blood given global issues anyway.
Corn explodes in the overnight session but all the suckers for now are in the boat, so its time for the computer churn to rape and pillage. 418 3/4, off 1 1/2 with the first OI drop of the move. Rice gains 6 1/2 to 1171 1/2 with an increase in open interest and some vs cash. Announcement of 120K of rice to Iraq. Beans OI finally up almost 10K marking the new suckers there, but meal held 6 bucks higher as beans gain 16 to close 872. Its still raining. Wheat OI continuing to peal off and the highs of last night firmly rejected,490 1/2, minus 14 1/4. Dow off 260 to 25,109 and bonds gain 23 tics to 152.24. Global economy is expected to tighten, and China has been spreading around money for their silk road military cover, and that probably will slow down. Dow PE is a little rich for my blood given global issues anyway.
5/28
Long weekend and lots of rain makes for a powerful grain rally as we try to digest just how many acres don't get planted. 56K more OI in corn so the new longs are coming out of the woodwork as we close 16 higher, 420 1/4. Rice up 9 1/2 in a wide range to 1165. Meals pops another 12 bucks to push beans 26 1/4 higher, 856. Wheat shorts covering with a declining OI and back above 5 dollars to 504 3/4, up 15 1/4. Dow off 251 to 25,369 as early bids faded. Bonds up another point 02 to 152.01 as we take rates lower. We still have very high rates compared to the rest of the world.
Long weekend and lots of rain makes for a powerful grain rally as we try to digest just how many acres don't get planted. 56K more OI in corn so the new longs are coming out of the woodwork as we close 16 higher, 420 1/4. Rice up 9 1/2 in a wide range to 1165. Meals pops another 12 bucks to push beans 26 1/4 higher, 856. Wheat shorts covering with a declining OI and back above 5 dollars to 504 3/4, up 15 1/4. Dow off 251 to 25,369 as early bids faded. Bonds up another point 02 to 152.01 as we take rates lower. We still have very high rates compared to the rest of the world.
5/24
Friday trade a weather trade. Corn up 40K in OI as new funds money piles in for a 14 1/2 cent higher day, 404 1/4. Rice in a churn trade for 1/2 cent gain, 1155 1/2. Getting late to expect many more acres. Meal up a solid 3 bucks as beans gain 8 1/4 to 829 3/4. More liquidation in wheat and 19 1/4 gain to 489 1/2. Dow up 157 to end Friday at 25,620 and bonds very quiet back and fill day, 150.31, off 15 tics.
Friday trade a weather trade. Corn up 40K in OI as new funds money piles in for a 14 1/2 cent higher day, 404 1/4. Rice in a churn trade for 1/2 cent gain, 1155 1/2. Getting late to expect many more acres. Meal up a solid 3 bucks as beans gain 8 1/4 to 829 3/4. More liquidation in wheat and 19 1/4 gain to 489 1/2. Dow up 157 to end Friday at 25,620 and bonds very quiet back and fill day, 150.31, off 15 tics.
5/23
Government money just muddied the water as some now think if they don't plant they will get nothing, so the initial reaction was down People are now figuring out what I've said all along, Sonny cant put out a prevent bonus yet, because they would be overwhelmed. Patience and 2 more payments in the mix. Corn a dime off the high, 389 3/4, minus 4 3/4. Beans off 7 to 821 1/2, but meal held in decently. Wheat off 2 1/2 for a 470 1/4 close. Rice up 21 1/2 to 1155 on a solid 500 contract increase in open interest. The rain that was supposed to be diminishing sure didn't, as we got more wet last night, again. Dow down 308 to 25,463, but still a churn trade. I would respect that bonds rally a full point and 23 tics to 151.14. Business reset, or flight to quality?
Government money just muddied the water as some now think if they don't plant they will get nothing, so the initial reaction was down People are now figuring out what I've said all along, Sonny cant put out a prevent bonus yet, because they would be overwhelmed. Patience and 2 more payments in the mix. Corn a dime off the high, 389 3/4, minus 4 3/4. Beans off 7 to 821 1/2, but meal held in decently. Wheat off 2 1/2 for a 470 1/4 close. Rice up 21 1/2 to 1155 on a solid 500 contract increase in open interest. The rain that was supposed to be diminishing sure didn't, as we got more wet last night, again. Dow down 308 to 25,463, but still a churn trade. I would respect that bonds rally a full point and 23 tics to 151.14. Business reset, or flight to quality?
5/22
Comparatively calm day as an early attempt at a break didn't want to follow thru. Corn closes up 1/4 to 394 1/2. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1133 1/2. Looks like we actually have one rice bull in the crowd, not just a short cover. Its about time, and should tell you something about the structural deficiencies of the contract, as far as the farmer is concerned. Beans gain 6 1/2 to 828 1/2 on the back of a $3 meal gain and an announcement by to USDA that the rumored $2 bean production payout is false, and don't change your planting rotation. Wheat does slip 6 cents, 472 3/4. Dow off 104 in more churn, 25,771 and the bonds gain 17 tics to 149.23. A solid day there and quietly catching my attention.
Comparatively calm day as an early attempt at a break didn't want to follow thru. Corn closes up 1/4 to 394 1/2. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1133 1/2. Looks like we actually have one rice bull in the crowd, not just a short cover. Its about time, and should tell you something about the structural deficiencies of the contract, as far as the farmer is concerned. Beans gain 6 1/2 to 828 1/2 on the back of a $3 meal gain and an announcement by to USDA that the rumored $2 bean production payout is false, and don't change your planting rotation. Wheat does slip 6 cents, 472 3/4. Dow off 104 in more churn, 25,771 and the bonds gain 17 tics to 149.23. A solid day there and quietly catching my attention.
5/21
Corn tried to get out 4 bucks, but backed off to 394 1/4, up 5 1/4. Only an 18 K gain in OI. Oats put on a show for a dozen cents and july is now over $3. So much for a false May squeeze. Rice short continues a measured cover, and has surly lightened up for now. 1131, plus 8 1/2. Beans drop a quarter from the highs on false news that government payout would be based on what you plant. 8.22, minus 9 3/4. Wheat OI continues to shrink as the short is clearly finding the door successfully, 478 3/4, small 1/2 cent gain. Dow churn continues, 25,875 and up 179. Bonds leak 6 tics, 149.06
Corn tried to get out 4 bucks, but backed off to 394 1/4, up 5 1/4. Only an 18 K gain in OI. Oats put on a show for a dozen cents and july is now over $3. So much for a false May squeeze. Rice short continues a measured cover, and has surly lightened up for now. 1131, plus 8 1/2. Beans drop a quarter from the highs on false news that government payout would be based on what you plant. 8.22, minus 9 3/4. Wheat OI continues to shrink as the short is clearly finding the door successfully, 478 3/4, small 1/2 cent gain. Dow churn continues, 25,875 and up 179. Bonds leak 6 tics, 149.06
5/20
Weekend of moisture didn't help planting, as all the grains add risk premiums to what will certainly be a diminished crop. Corn up 5 3/4 to 389. 49K gain in open interest as some still don't recognize the game has changed, and these short managed money boys are sticker that most expect. Beans pop a dime, 831 3/4. Wheat gains 13 1/4 to 478 1/4. Wheat is short covering, with a declining OI. Rice acres are off, and yield cant be far behind with how late what is left of the crop is going in. 11.22 1/2, plus 15 1/2, but commercials seem to still be willing to sell each rally. This will turn into 2 markets soon, old crop and new crop. Don't get caught in the stir. Dow in churn trade yet again, 25,696, off 84, while bonds slip 10 tics, 149.12.
Weekend of moisture didn't help planting, as all the grains add risk premiums to what will certainly be a diminished crop. Corn up 5 3/4 to 389. 49K gain in open interest as some still don't recognize the game has changed, and these short managed money boys are sticker that most expect. Beans pop a dime, 831 3/4. Wheat gains 13 1/4 to 478 1/4. Wheat is short covering, with a declining OI. Rice acres are off, and yield cant be far behind with how late what is left of the crop is going in. 11.22 1/2, plus 15 1/2, but commercials seem to still be willing to sell each rally. This will turn into 2 markets soon, old crop and new crop. Don't get caught in the stir. Dow in churn trade yet again, 25,696, off 84, while bonds slip 10 tics, 149.12.
5/17
Meal rolled over, and beans followed, as I had feared after Thursday's action, losing 18 cents, 821 3/4. Wheat closed 8 off the high, 465, down 2. Corn up 4 1/4 with a 26K increase in OI to 383 1/4. Another million bushels vs cash trade in the rice and Iraq back in again, supposedly with more conviction(read government pressure to finally act)on a new tender we get a 16 1/2 cent pop, 1107. As the river recedes, 5 bucks will sell a lot of rice in this hemisphere. The full carry fund shorts in the grains aren't budging yet, and at some point the rest of the industry will realize that a new and large perma bear has been created, and if we don't get structural reform, he will keep ag prices lower than the domestic market will surely pay, for the foreseeable future. Even if we get this summers rally from real supply reduction, all we have done is kick the can down the road another year,. That possibility is still dependent on what the next round of farm subsidies actually support. Devil in this one is surely in the details. We will adjust accordingly. Another big churning range in the dow with a soft settle, 25,780, off 87. Nothing day in the bonds, 149.22, plus 8 tics.
Meal rolled over, and beans followed, as I had feared after Thursday's action, losing 18 cents, 821 3/4. Wheat closed 8 off the high, 465, down 2. Corn up 4 1/4 with a 26K increase in OI to 383 1/4. Another million bushels vs cash trade in the rice and Iraq back in again, supposedly with more conviction(read government pressure to finally act)on a new tender we get a 16 1/2 cent pop, 1107. As the river recedes, 5 bucks will sell a lot of rice in this hemisphere. The full carry fund shorts in the grains aren't budging yet, and at some point the rest of the industry will realize that a new and large perma bear has been created, and if we don't get structural reform, he will keep ag prices lower than the domestic market will surely pay, for the foreseeable future. Even if we get this summers rally from real supply reduction, all we have done is kick the can down the road another year,. That possibility is still dependent on what the next round of farm subsidies actually support. Devil in this one is surely in the details. We will adjust accordingly. Another big churning range in the dow with a soft settle, 25,780, off 87. Nothing day in the bonds, 149.22, plus 8 tics.
5/16
Another solid day in corn 379, up 9 1/2. Same for wheat, 467 for a 18 1/4 gain. Meal up 2 bucks as beans close 839 3/4, plus 4 1/4 but needing new fuel from here I am afraid. Rice made sure it stayed below Tuesday night volume for a 1090 1/2 close, off a penny. We are at a point where weather problems are becoming real for a large enough footprint that real acre losses and failure to make trend line are almost irrefutable. Dow up 193 to 25,867 in what I would call churn trade. Bonds slip 14 tics in the same churn, 149.14.
Another solid day in corn 379, up 9 1/2. Same for wheat, 467 for a 18 1/4 gain. Meal up 2 bucks as beans close 839 3/4, plus 4 1/4 but needing new fuel from here I am afraid. Rice made sure it stayed below Tuesday night volume for a 1090 1/2 close, off a penny. We are at a point where weather problems are becoming real for a large enough footprint that real acre losses and failure to make trend line are almost irrefutable. Dow up 193 to 25,867 in what I would call churn trade. Bonds slip 14 tics in the same churn, 149.14.
5/15
Someone slammed the rice in night trade Tuesday night. The question is weather it was a fool who doesn't know what he is doing, or someone who knows exactly what he is doing. I believe it is the latter, and that scares me in the big picture. Rice settles 1091 1/2, 10 lower and 1/2 cent below where the first and best piece of volume in the selling took place. A good deal higher than the lows, but a bully trade none the less. Coming to the other grains sooner than you think, and they have established that the slam usually is to the down side. I'm talking about trading methodology, not next weeks price. Corn closes 369 1/2, up 3/4 but a dime off the highs. Kind of the same story for the others, wheat up 1/4 to 448 3/4 but a soft close. Beans up 4 with another solid day in the meal to back it up, 835 1/2. Looks like we have more moisture coming. You may have already heard it from me, but Sonny Perdue could kill two birds with one stone by adding $50 to $100 to the prevent plant acres. Would help keep several million acres that are on the fence right now out of production, and overnight we go from excess expected production to ,"sorry China, we don't have any to sell you anyway. Good luck with that bed you made in Argentina." While you are at it, time to revamp the farm program to take marginal acres out of production for an extended time, and fix the insurance side for good measure. Dow herders tried lower but couldn't find a system to follow, so 104 higher close, 25,674. Bonds continuing the reset up, meaning lower yield, 149.28, up 22 tics.
Someone slammed the rice in night trade Tuesday night. The question is weather it was a fool who doesn't know what he is doing, or someone who knows exactly what he is doing. I believe it is the latter, and that scares me in the big picture. Rice settles 1091 1/2, 10 lower and 1/2 cent below where the first and best piece of volume in the selling took place. A good deal higher than the lows, but a bully trade none the less. Coming to the other grains sooner than you think, and they have established that the slam usually is to the down side. I'm talking about trading methodology, not next weeks price. Corn closes 369 1/2, up 3/4 but a dime off the highs. Kind of the same story for the others, wheat up 1/4 to 448 3/4 but a soft close. Beans up 4 with another solid day in the meal to back it up, 835 1/2. Looks like we have more moisture coming. You may have already heard it from me, but Sonny Perdue could kill two birds with one stone by adding $50 to $100 to the prevent plant acres. Would help keep several million acres that are on the fence right now out of production, and overnight we go from excess expected production to ,"sorry China, we don't have any to sell you anyway. Good luck with that bed you made in Argentina." While you are at it, time to revamp the farm program to take marginal acres out of production for an extended time, and fix the insurance side for good measure. Dow herders tried lower but couldn't find a system to follow, so 104 higher close, 25,674. Bonds continuing the reset up, meaning lower yield, 149.28, up 22 tics.
5/14
Corn up 12 1/4 to 368 3/4. Wheat gains 11 1/2 to 448 1/2. Beans 831 1/2. Surprised at how little OI dropped on the volume traded, as the large spec short starts looking for the door. Rice up 2 to 1101 1/2, but off the highs as seller wants to keep a lid on it. Dow recovers to 25,570, up 289 and bonds slip 9 to 149.06.
Corn up 12 1/4 to 368 3/4. Wheat gains 11 1/2 to 448 1/2. Beans 831 1/2. Surprised at how little OI dropped on the volume traded, as the large spec short starts looking for the door. Rice up 2 to 1101 1/2, but off the highs as seller wants to keep a lid on it. Dow recovers to 25,570, up 289 and bonds slip 9 to 149.06.
5/13
Trade tariffs are the feature story of Monday and America is calling China's bluff. Dow gets the hammer for 683 to 25,281, but remember, that is from a very high level. Bonds up 26 tics, 149.15 but less of a flight to quality that an acceptance that we will have lower rates longer. Wheat pops for 12 1/4 to 437, short covering. Beans off 6 3/4 but well off the lows, 802 1/2, with meal unchanged. Corn puts in a new low and screams 13 higher to 356 1/2, 4 3/4 higher on the day. Rice closes 1099 1/2, up a penny and 475 Vs cash quietly trade, driving IO down to 7K.
Trade tariffs are the feature story of Monday and America is calling China's bluff. Dow gets the hammer for 683 to 25,281, but remember, that is from a very high level. Bonds up 26 tics, 149.15 but less of a flight to quality that an acceptance that we will have lower rates longer. Wheat pops for 12 1/4 to 437, short covering. Beans off 6 3/4 but well off the lows, 802 1/2, with meal unchanged. Corn puts in a new low and screams 13 higher to 356 1/2, 4 3/4 higher on the day. Rice closes 1099 1/2, up a penny and 475 Vs cash quietly trade, driving IO down to 7K.
5/10
WASDE came out negative as expected, with asterisks on the numbers, letting you at least know even they don't believe what they had to put out. Corn looked at new lows, but bounced well to 351 3/4, off 1 1/2. May oats back above 3 bucks. Bearish rice number, vs bullish reality means a nickel rally to 1098 1/2. Deliveries should be sewed up, unless an elevator needs to raise some capital. On the plus side, once the river is open, far south Arkansas rice will now be available to make export deals. Beans drop 3 1/2 to 809 1/4. Wheat continues its slide to 424 3/4, off 4 3/4. This whole grain slide is as much river logistics as anything else. As logistics improve, so will prices. Dow 500 off the lows to 25,964, UP 148, and that's in the face of big draw IPOs and a newly re introduced tariff battle with China. Bonds in a nothing day, 148.21, off a tic.
WASDE came out negative as expected, with asterisks on the numbers, letting you at least know even they don't believe what they had to put out. Corn looked at new lows, but bounced well to 351 3/4, off 1 1/2. May oats back above 3 bucks. Bearish rice number, vs bullish reality means a nickel rally to 1098 1/2. Deliveries should be sewed up, unless an elevator needs to raise some capital. On the plus side, once the river is open, far south Arkansas rice will now be available to make export deals. Beans drop 3 1/2 to 809 1/4. Wheat continues its slide to 424 3/4, off 4 3/4. This whole grain slide is as much river logistics as anything else. As logistics improve, so will prices. Dow 500 off the lows to 25,964, UP 148, and that's in the face of big draw IPOs and a newly re introduced tariff battle with China. Bonds in a nothing day, 148.21, off a tic.
5/09
Tariffs are on and the market is soft. Corn drop 11 cents, 353 1/4. Rice stable off 1 1/2 to 1093 1/2. Aside from the noise, it is still raining. Beans get hit for 14 1/2, 812 3/4. Wheat takes a 9 1/2 drop to 429 1/2. Dow down 198 to 25,816. Bonds rally 15 tics to 148.22.
Tariffs are on and the market is soft. Corn drop 11 cents, 353 1/4. Rice stable off 1 1/2 to 1093 1/2. Aside from the noise, it is still raining. Beans get hit for 14 1/2, 812 3/4. Wheat takes a 9 1/2 drop to 429 1/2. Dow down 198 to 25,816. Bonds rally 15 tics to 148.22.
5/08
Corn looked higher, but faded 2 1/4 lower, 364 1/4. Chop day in beans and wheat, with wheat off 1/2 cent, 439, and beans down 3 1/2 to 827 1/4. Rice up 1 1/2 to 1095 with weather a real planting issue. Dow churn day with a 26,014 ending trade, plus 41. Bonds off 17 tics to 148.07.
Corn looked higher, but faded 2 1/4 lower, 364 1/4. Chop day in beans and wheat, with wheat off 1/2 cent, 439, and beans down 3 1/2 to 827 1/4. Rice up 1 1/2 to 1095 with weather a real planting issue. Dow churn day with a 26,014 ending trade, plus 41. Bonds off 17 tics to 148.07.
5/7
Corn continues to recover from Sunday night, 366 1/2, plus 2 1/4. Same story for the wheat, 439 1/2, up 2 1/4. Beans chopped but were ultimately held back to 1/2 cent gain by a very soft, and concerning, meal. 830 3/4. Rice caught a fire to the upside as the big short starts looking for the door, 1093 1/2 for a strong 23 1/2 cent gain. Dow drops 432 to 25,973 as tariffs start to sink in, and I think there is a high probability of that happening. Looking at raw facts, the dow is still at a high multiple, and China already isn't taking much of our grain, so the dow has the most to loose. See Sunday night comments. Bonds up 30 more tics to 148.24, and I see no reason not to go above 150 if this impasse sticks.
Corn continues to recover from Sunday night, 366 1/2, plus 2 1/4. Same story for the wheat, 439 1/2, up 2 1/4. Beans chopped but were ultimately held back to 1/2 cent gain by a very soft, and concerning, meal. 830 3/4. Rice caught a fire to the upside as the big short starts looking for the door, 1093 1/2 for a strong 23 1/2 cent gain. Dow drops 432 to 25,973 as tariffs start to sink in, and I think there is a high probability of that happening. Looking at raw facts, the dow is still at a high multiple, and China already isn't taking much of our grain, so the dow has the most to loose. See Sunday night comments. Bonds up 30 more tics to 148.24, and I see no reason not to go above 150 if this impasse sticks.
5/06
President Trump set the world afire with a tweet about China tariffs going up this coming Friday. Trouble is, they were scheduled to go up this Friday with out a deal, and China apparently was trying to reign back on some of the currently negotiated expectations, so Trump made it clear that wouldn't fly. The people that jumped out with a knee jerk reaction when markets opened just got sucker punched, as last night pretty much set todays lows. Corn 6 1/2 lower to close 364 1/4, but about the highs of the day, and growing expectation that this coming WASDE report will show reduced production, question of how much. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1070 as an iceberg seller moved a pretty decent chunk of volume to a more than willing buyer. 100 new may that I don't know anything about yet. I'm in Arkansas, and there are real problems. Only equipment I've seen move since Friday from Illinois to Jonesboro has been two air tractors. Beans off a quarter early, but close off 12 cents, 830 1/4, and meal only down a buck sixty. Wheat off a dime but rallies to only a fraction lower, 437 1/4. Dow hit for 500 last night but a 24,405 close, minus 94. Bonds up well over a point early but close up 14 tics, 147.26.
President Trump set the world afire with a tweet about China tariffs going up this coming Friday. Trouble is, they were scheduled to go up this Friday with out a deal, and China apparently was trying to reign back on some of the currently negotiated expectations, so Trump made it clear that wouldn't fly. The people that jumped out with a knee jerk reaction when markets opened just got sucker punched, as last night pretty much set todays lows. Corn 6 1/2 lower to close 364 1/4, but about the highs of the day, and growing expectation that this coming WASDE report will show reduced production, question of how much. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1070 as an iceberg seller moved a pretty decent chunk of volume to a more than willing buyer. 100 new may that I don't know anything about yet. I'm in Arkansas, and there are real problems. Only equipment I've seen move since Friday from Illinois to Jonesboro has been two air tractors. Beans off a quarter early, but close off 12 cents, 830 1/4, and meal only down a buck sixty. Wheat off a dime but rallies to only a fraction lower, 437 1/4. Dow hit for 500 last night but a 24,405 close, minus 94. Bonds up well over a point early but close up 14 tics, 147.26.
5/03
Getting an early report today, as the boys in Chicago got the 9 o'clock bulletin out at 9 o'clock. It is Friday. Corn a nickel off the lows to close 1/4 cent higher on the day, 370 3/4. Only a 7 k drop in OI, so this thing still has lots of legs under it. Another nickel rally and the funds will be buying on moving average signals, and that can be new longs as well as the massive short. Rice bear got it down a dime early but met with plenty of buying and disappeared. 1075 1/2, nickel better close. We got a new long in the K/N spread, and based on deliveries, looks suspiciously like a coop. Kind of late to the dance again if it is. Meal looks lower but rallies to a buck higher on the day, with beans off a penny at the close, 842 1/4. This bean break has been painful, but by old school rules, the large spec is needing some company to push much lower for now. Wheat gives back most of Thursday, 438, minus 6. Bonds still in a churn trade at best, 147.12, plus 14 tics. Dow put on a really nice rally to 26,499, up 234. Have a dry weekend.
Getting an early report today, as the boys in Chicago got the 9 o'clock bulletin out at 9 o'clock. It is Friday. Corn a nickel off the lows to close 1/4 cent higher on the day, 370 3/4. Only a 7 k drop in OI, so this thing still has lots of legs under it. Another nickel rally and the funds will be buying on moving average signals, and that can be new longs as well as the massive short. Rice bear got it down a dime early but met with plenty of buying and disappeared. 1075 1/2, nickel better close. We got a new long in the K/N spread, and based on deliveries, looks suspiciously like a coop. Kind of late to the dance again if it is. Meal looks lower but rallies to a buck higher on the day, with beans off a penny at the close, 842 1/4. This bean break has been painful, but by old school rules, the large spec is needing some company to push much lower for now. Wheat gives back most of Thursday, 438, minus 6. Bonds still in a churn trade at best, 147.12, plus 14 tics. Dow put on a really nice rally to 26,499, up 234. Have a dry weekend.
5/02
Sadly, beans were the weak leg today again, as meal gave up over 3 bucks and beans drop to 843 1/4, down 8 1/2. Exports were nothing to write home about in any of the grains, and the wheat tour flashed some pretty big production numbers, but wheat ignored that and rallied 8 to 444. Corn up another couple cents to 370 1/2. Rice gains 14 1/2 to 1070 1/2. Other than beans, not a bad day and showing at least a crack in the huge spec short armor. Wont take too much more rain for real production cuts to occur, and a negative change in supply (read corn here) could have outsized pricing effects before it even gets in the ground, yet alone if the summer spigot stays turned off. Dow off another 125 to 26,265, but honestly better than I expected. Bonds drop 21 tics, 146.30, which lends a small hand to the dow.
Sadly, beans were the weak leg today again, as meal gave up over 3 bucks and beans drop to 843 1/4, down 8 1/2. Exports were nothing to write home about in any of the grains, and the wheat tour flashed some pretty big production numbers, but wheat ignored that and rallied 8 to 444. Corn up another couple cents to 370 1/2. Rice gains 14 1/2 to 1070 1/2. Other than beans, not a bad day and showing at least a crack in the huge spec short armor. Wont take too much more rain for real production cuts to occur, and a negative change in supply (read corn here) could have outsized pricing effects before it even gets in the ground, yet alone if the summer spigot stays turned off. Dow off another 125 to 26,265, but honestly better than I expected. Bonds drop 21 tics, 146.30, which lends a small hand to the dow.
5/01
Beans were the weak leg today and meal looked soft, same with wheat, but corn just marched 6 higher to 368 1/2 and the rest of the grains took notice. Massive shorts in corn and only 5 k of liquidation covering lends more legs to this rally as well. Heavy oat deliveries first day just shaken off as July oats march 6 higher. Meal found its legs and got higher on the day by the close, with beans rallying to only off 2 1/4, settles 851 3/4. Wheat took the corn lead for a 7 1/4 cent rally to 436. Rice computer bear tried again to hit the market and failed as buyers look for cheap product, 1056, off 2. Bonds had a bit of a rally with the FED basically saying they don't plan to raise, but also not drop rates, then faded to only 4 tics higher, 147.19 . Dow rolls over 194 lower to 26,390, and shaky at that. Financial sidelines looking good Lewis.
Beans were the weak leg today and meal looked soft, same with wheat, but corn just marched 6 higher to 368 1/2 and the rest of the grains took notice. Massive shorts in corn and only 5 k of liquidation covering lends more legs to this rally as well. Heavy oat deliveries first day just shaken off as July oats march 6 higher. Meal found its legs and got higher on the day by the close, with beans rallying to only off 2 1/4, settles 851 3/4. Wheat took the corn lead for a 7 1/4 cent rally to 436. Rice computer bear tried again to hit the market and failed as buyers look for cheap product, 1056, off 2. Bonds had a bit of a rally with the FED basically saying they don't plan to raise, but also not drop rates, then faded to only 4 tics higher, 147.19 . Dow rolls over 194 lower to 26,390, and shaky at that. Financial sidelines looking good Lewis.
4/30
Heavy deliveries cleared out the last of the weak longs in the morning, then we seemed to bottom across the board and corn lead the market for the rest of the day. I believe I will write that comment(corn lead the market higher) too many times to count this year. 4/30/19. Mark that date down. Corn looked soft but closed 3/4 higher on the day, 362 1/2, and there is a ton of spec shorts. This delayed prep and planting issue is starting to get real and buckets of water falling out of the air aren't helping the situation. 854 beans are off 6 3/4, but meal held and the silent hand appears to have just shifted from may to July. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 428 3/4 but seemed to run out of sellers. Rice had to digest the lack of receipt sponsors and let the bankers back in the game , 1058, minus 4 1/2. Computer seemed to lack enthusiasm to sell with his own money today. Dow up 36 points to 26,584 and bonds gain 16 tics to 147.15. Fed cant raise our rates if the rest of the world wont raise theirs, and the EU is incapable of raising, ever it seems.
Heavy deliveries cleared out the last of the weak longs in the morning, then we seemed to bottom across the board and corn lead the market for the rest of the day. I believe I will write that comment(corn lead the market higher) too many times to count this year. 4/30/19. Mark that date down. Corn looked soft but closed 3/4 higher on the day, 362 1/2, and there is a ton of spec shorts. This delayed prep and planting issue is starting to get real and buckets of water falling out of the air aren't helping the situation. 854 beans are off 6 3/4, but meal held and the silent hand appears to have just shifted from may to July. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 428 3/4 but seemed to run out of sellers. Rice had to digest the lack of receipt sponsors and let the bankers back in the game , 1058, minus 4 1/2. Computer seemed to lack enthusiasm to sell with his own money today. Dow up 36 points to 26,584 and bonds gain 16 tics to 147.15. Fed cant raise our rates if the rest of the world wont raise theirs, and the EU is incapable of raising, ever it seems.
4/29
Rolling to July for grain futures, corn closed 1/2 cent better, 361 3/4, but pretty weak showing for the day. Oats squeeze continues, but heavy deliveries should put a lid on that market. Rice popped 17 1/2 to 1062 1/2 but the spread has no sponsor and we traded to the bankers, which is disappointing as far as the industry goes. Meal moved to July 300 as the target, and we will see if that holds, as beans dip 6 1/4 to 860 3/4. Chinese companies delivered beans again, what a surprise. Wheat also sees heavy deliveries as the Andersons needs to collect some storage money, 435 1/4, minus 7 1/4. Nothing day in the dow, 26,548, plus 31. Bonds drop 20 tics to 146.31.
Rolling to July for grain futures, corn closed 1/2 cent better, 361 3/4, but pretty weak showing for the day. Oats squeeze continues, but heavy deliveries should put a lid on that market. Rice popped 17 1/2 to 1062 1/2 but the spread has no sponsor and we traded to the bankers, which is disappointing as far as the industry goes. Meal moved to July 300 as the target, and we will see if that holds, as beans dip 6 1/4 to 860 3/4. Chinese companies delivered beans again, what a surprise. Wheat also sees heavy deliveries as the Andersons needs to collect some storage money, 435 1/4, minus 7 1/4. Nothing day in the dow, 26,548, plus 31. Bonds drop 20 tics to 146.31.
4/26
Meal gives up all Thursday gains (disappointing to say the least)and beans drop 5 1/2 to 853 3/4. Big 56K drop in open interest as the margin clerks do their ritual job of running out the last of the weak longs pre delivery. Speaking of, you must be out of all may grain longs by Mondays close to avoid deliveries. Please call with any questions. Corn had a bit of the reverse as the big money funds appear to have played the spec and farmer long absolutely perfectly by covering their shorts into the longs selling/puking at very low prices. 351 1/4 for a 3 3/4 gain with another 91K of OI knocked off for the win. Computers are getting smarter and we have to adapt. Oats quietly up another 7 cents to 308. Wheat just churned to a 435 close, up 1/4. Rice has an interesting set up developing as may still has 1100 Open interest and very few receipts to deliver, with an increase in total OI of 222 when it should be dropping. 1019 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Dow looked lower early with a few soft earnings reports but recovered to 26,517, up 77. Bonds firm again for 14 tics to 147.19.
Meal gives up all Thursday gains (disappointing to say the least)and beans drop 5 1/2 to 853 3/4. Big 56K drop in open interest as the margin clerks do their ritual job of running out the last of the weak longs pre delivery. Speaking of, you must be out of all may grain longs by Mondays close to avoid deliveries. Please call with any questions. Corn had a bit of the reverse as the big money funds appear to have played the spec and farmer long absolutely perfectly by covering their shorts into the longs selling/puking at very low prices. 351 1/4 for a 3 3/4 gain with another 91K of OI knocked off for the win. Computers are getting smarter and we have to adapt. Oats quietly up another 7 cents to 308. Wheat just churned to a 435 close, up 1/4. Rice has an interesting set up developing as may still has 1100 Open interest and very few receipts to deliver, with an increase in total OI of 222 when it should be dropping. 1019 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Dow looked lower early with a few soft earnings reports but recovered to 26,517, up 77. Bonds firm again for 14 tics to 147.19.
4/25
Recovery day in the grains as solid exports and strong meal (5.60 higher) help float all boats. Oats quietly over 3 bucks. Corn put out new lows but rallied well to 3/4 higher on the day, 347 1/2. Almost 42K in position liquidation, which gives me a little more confirmation that some of the monkey business in rice has been beta testing for bigger short positions, especially in the corn, by these managed money bullies. Rice had a transfer of ownership roll today and closed unchanged, 1016. Beans rally 4 on meals back to 859 1/4. Wheat gains 2 1/2 to 434 3/4. Dow slides 101 lower with 3M getting hammered on disappointing forward expectations and a pretty high PE anyways, while the bonds drop 6 tics in a very tight range to 147.05. Options expiration tomorrow and first intentions on Mondays close should flush out the rest of the weak hands.
Recovery day in the grains as solid exports and strong meal (5.60 higher) help float all boats. Oats quietly over 3 bucks. Corn put out new lows but rallied well to 3/4 higher on the day, 347 1/2. Almost 42K in position liquidation, which gives me a little more confirmation that some of the monkey business in rice has been beta testing for bigger short positions, especially in the corn, by these managed money bullies. Rice had a transfer of ownership roll today and closed unchanged, 1016. Beans rally 4 on meals back to 859 1/4. Wheat gains 2 1/2 to 434 3/4. Dow slides 101 lower with 3M getting hammered on disappointing forward expectations and a pretty high PE anyways, while the bonds drop 6 tics in a very tight range to 147.05. Options expiration tomorrow and first intentions on Mondays close should flush out the rest of the weak hands.
4/24
Wednesday Corn 346 3/4 to new lows on more record fund selling and longs giving up, minus 4 1/2. Rice has a big volume long roll all at once to hit the spread and take almost half the remaining OI off the table, 1016, off 6 1/2. Whoever owns that account needs desperately to hire me. Thinking corporate mandates are in the way of common sense. Meal stays above 300 but beans leak another 6 3/4 to 855 1/4. Good time to be a crusher, not so much for the farmer. Funny how the commercial always seems to find a way to profit. Wheat back in the dumps, 432 1/4, down 6 1/2. Bonds firm 27 tics and act to have put in the low side of the range at 147.11, while dow fades 98 points to 26,541.
Wednesday Corn 346 3/4 to new lows on more record fund selling and longs giving up, minus 4 1/2. Rice has a big volume long roll all at once to hit the spread and take almost half the remaining OI off the table, 1016, off 6 1/2. Whoever owns that account needs desperately to hire me. Thinking corporate mandates are in the way of common sense. Meal stays above 300 but beans leak another 6 3/4 to 855 1/4. Good time to be a crusher, not so much for the farmer. Funny how the commercial always seems to find a way to profit. Wheat back in the dumps, 432 1/4, down 6 1/2. Bonds firm 27 tics and act to have put in the low side of the range at 147.11, while dow fades 98 points to 26,541.
4/23
Wheat ran out of selling and bounced 3 cents, 438 3/4. Corn lost 3 1/2 to 351 1/4 on 25K of new spec selling on top of record positions. Wow, its only money, and someone else's at that. Meal only gave up a buck and a half to 301, but beans faded 15 lower to 862. Rice spread roll continues and starting to squeeze as I don't see anyone willing to deliver at these levels, but futures give up 22 1/2 to 1022 1/2. Dow up 126 on some earnings beats, 26,639. Bonds up 9 tics on a nothing day, 146.16
Wheat ran out of selling and bounced 3 cents, 438 3/4. Corn lost 3 1/2 to 351 1/4 on 25K of new spec selling on top of record positions. Wow, its only money, and someone else's at that. Meal only gave up a buck and a half to 301, but beans faded 15 lower to 862. Rice spread roll continues and starting to squeeze as I don't see anyone willing to deliver at these levels, but futures give up 22 1/2 to 1022 1/2. Dow up 126 on some earnings beats, 26,639. Bonds up 9 tics on a nothing day, 146.16
4/22
Wheat putting a drag on all the grains, as the spec short continues to add, 435 3/4, minus 8 1/2. Decent corn inspections, but a record spec short selling more to prove himself right gets us to 354 3/4, off 3 3/4. Beans off 3 1/2 to 877 as meal seems to be stabilizing here above 300 bucks. Oats are quietly thinking about another run up to $3. Rice roll still the feature as the spec seller isn't getting paid for his volume now, 1045, plus 2 1/2. I know this break has been difficult, but this is the other side of the fund money sword. When they push too high and keep us at prices that make sense to us, the commercials complain. Right now they are pushing too far to the down side and we have to just deal with it as best we can, knowing that time and mother nature will force their hand. We are at the bottom end of open interest volume for bean and corn options, meaning no one wants to play below here. A declining chart hitting a flat bottom stops declining. Record shorts cant stay there for ever. So we have options expiration Friday and deliveries early next week. I don't see much more pressure past may 1. Dow off 53 to 26,513 and bonds give back 20 tics to 146.07 in a nothing day in the financials.
Wheat putting a drag on all the grains, as the spec short continues to add, 435 3/4, minus 8 1/2. Decent corn inspections, but a record spec short selling more to prove himself right gets us to 354 3/4, off 3 3/4. Beans off 3 1/2 to 877 as meal seems to be stabilizing here above 300 bucks. Oats are quietly thinking about another run up to $3. Rice roll still the feature as the spec seller isn't getting paid for his volume now, 1045, plus 2 1/2. I know this break has been difficult, but this is the other side of the fund money sword. When they push too high and keep us at prices that make sense to us, the commercials complain. Right now they are pushing too far to the down side and we have to just deal with it as best we can, knowing that time and mother nature will force their hand. We are at the bottom end of open interest volume for bean and corn options, meaning no one wants to play below here. A declining chart hitting a flat bottom stops declining. Record shorts cant stay there for ever. So we have options expiration Friday and deliveries early next week. I don't see much more pressure past may 1. Dow off 53 to 26,513 and bonds give back 20 tics to 146.07 in a nothing day in the financials.
4/18
Dead pre holiday trade with corn up 1/4 to close 358 1/2. Rice off 5 1/2 as the spread roll continues, 1042 1/2. Beans brushed off soft meal to settle 880 1/2, up 1 1/2. Wheat cant seem to find a bottom, 444 1/4, off 2 3/4. Dow up 138 to 26,566 and bonds rally 17 tics to 146.27. If bonds are laying in a floor, it might be time for a dow setback.
Dead pre holiday trade with corn up 1/4 to close 358 1/2. Rice off 5 1/2 as the spread roll continues, 1042 1/2. Beans brushed off soft meal to settle 880 1/2, up 1 1/2. Wheat cant seem to find a bottom, 444 1/4, off 2 3/4. Dow up 138 to 26,566 and bonds rally 17 tics to 146.27. If bonds are laying in a floor, it might be time for a dow setback.
4/17
Corn looking for a floor and closes off 3/4 at 358 1/4. Wheat bounces a couple cents, 447. Beans follow meal lower again for another 9 cent loss, 897. Rice spread the feature again and futures close 1048, off 3 1/2. Dow churn yields a 19 point down day, 26,428. Bonds in a sleeper and close 146.10, minus 1 tic.
Corn looking for a floor and closes off 3/4 at 358 1/4. Wheat bounces a couple cents, 447. Beans follow meal lower again for another 9 cent loss, 897. Rice spread the feature again and futures close 1048, off 3 1/2. Dow churn yields a 19 point down day, 26,428. Bonds in a sleeper and close 146.10, minus 1 tic.
4/16
Turn around Tuesday in the meal, and quite a disappointment, dropping $4.50 and opening a hole again for beans to fall 10 3/4 to 888. 20K gain in OI(open interest) in the process. Wheat was its usual disgusting self, as any excuse is a good excuse to sell wheat again, 445, down 14 1/2. How quickly the supply story has changed. That helped put the thumb on corn for 3 3/4 cents, 359. A 23K gain in new shorts as well. Rice gave up 4 to 1051 1/2 as the roll puts July OI over may for the first time, with 200 new 1040 puts written in may, and still no one wanting to participate in new crop. You are being warned there yet again. Dow up 74 to settle 26,477, which was over 100 off the high is a strange feeling trade. Bonds off another 23 to 146.11 so a nice 4 point break from the recent highs so far. Wouldn't be a bad time to catch a breather in the financials.
Turn around Tuesday in the meal, and quite a disappointment, dropping $4.50 and opening a hole again for beans to fall 10 3/4 to 888. 20K gain in OI(open interest) in the process. Wheat was its usual disgusting self, as any excuse is a good excuse to sell wheat again, 445, down 14 1/2. How quickly the supply story has changed. That helped put the thumb on corn for 3 3/4 cents, 359. A 23K gain in new shorts as well. Rice gave up 4 to 1051 1/2 as the roll puts July OI over may for the first time, with 200 new 1040 puts written in may, and still no one wanting to participate in new crop. You are being warned there yet again. Dow up 74 to settle 26,477, which was over 100 off the high is a strange feeling trade. Bonds off another 23 to 146.11 so a nice 4 point break from the recent highs so far. Wouldn't be a bad time to catch a breather in the financials.
4/15
Wheat drops a nickel with no new news, 459 1/2. Corn up 1 3/4 to 362 3/4 with more positive thoughts about china, and the stark reality that at some point this weather is going to matter. Meal pops back 3 bucks which I like to see, and beans follow for 3 1/2 cents, 898 3/4. Rice bull rolled spreads today and may gained 9 1/2 to 1055 1/2. Again, this weather is starting to get some notice. I will argue there is a bit of a demand story as well, but I'd be a bit more patient about chasing from here. Dow was listless and closed off 35 points, 26,373. Bonds up 5 tics to 147.02.
Wheat drops a nickel with no new news, 459 1/2. Corn up 1 3/4 to 362 3/4 with more positive thoughts about china, and the stark reality that at some point this weather is going to matter. Meal pops back 3 bucks which I like to see, and beans follow for 3 1/2 cents, 898 3/4. Rice bull rolled spreads today and may gained 9 1/2 to 1055 1/2. Again, this weather is starting to get some notice. I will argue there is a bit of a demand story as well, but I'd be a bit more patient about chasing from here. Dow was listless and closed off 35 points, 26,373. Bonds up 5 tics to 147.02.
4/12
Quiet Friday in corn, 361 for a penny gain. Beans flat at 895 1/4 as well. Meal was stable and up slightly. Wheat gained 4 to close 464 1/2 on order flow. Rice shorts clearly aren't interested in delivering at these low prices, as the market gains 17 1/2 to 1046, and the spread compresses another nickel. I smell something in the cash market that the cash market doesn't want you to know about yet. Dow was solid all day and marched up 275 points on the day, 26,408. Bonds did the obligatory break to keep the dance partners from stepping on toes, 146.29, minus 26. Have a great weekend.
Quiet Friday in corn, 361 for a penny gain. Beans flat at 895 1/4 as well. Meal was stable and up slightly. Wheat gained 4 to close 464 1/2 on order flow. Rice shorts clearly aren't interested in delivering at these low prices, as the market gains 17 1/2 to 1046, and the spread compresses another nickel. I smell something in the cash market that the cash market doesn't want you to know about yet. Dow was solid all day and marched up 275 points on the day, 26,408. Bonds did the obligatory break to keep the dance partners from stepping on toes, 146.29, minus 26. Have a great weekend.
4/11
Corn gives back yesterday to settle 360 again. Rice spread finds a bid and futures gain a nickel, 1028 1/2. Meal leaks almost 3 bucks and that makes a hole for beans to drop 6 3/4 to 895 1/4. Hope that was a fluke in the meal. Wheat up 2 1/2 to close 460 1/2. Dow just a churn trade, 26.133, off 33. Bonds drop 16 tics to 147.23. Stay in planting mode, and don't let this market noise distract for now.
Corn gives back yesterday to settle 360 again. Rice spread finds a bid and futures gain a nickel, 1028 1/2. Meal leaks almost 3 bucks and that makes a hole for beans to drop 6 3/4 to 895 1/4. Hope that was a fluke in the meal. Wheat up 2 1/2 to close 460 1/2. Dow just a churn trade, 26.133, off 33. Bonds drop 16 tics to 147.23. Stay in planting mode, and don't let this market noise distract for now.
4/10
Day was what we use to call a throw away day on the floor. News of weather up north not enough to draw excitement, too many spec shorts to want to hammer on it. Crossword puzzles would be done, and for some, a trip to the bar before lunch. Maybe a 2 hour nap. Corn up 1 3/4 to 361 3/4. Meal up a buck to keep a floor under beans, 902, plus 3 1/4. Wheat off 1 1/2 to close 458. More roll in the rice and a little more options activity, as well as what appears to be a new long willing to take the sellers volume down here. 1023 1/1, down 5 1/2. Snoozer in the financials, with bonds up 7 tics, 148.07, and dow gaining 8 points, 26,166.
Day was what we use to call a throw away day on the floor. News of weather up north not enough to draw excitement, too many spec shorts to want to hammer on it. Crossword puzzles would be done, and for some, a trip to the bar before lunch. Maybe a 2 hour nap. Corn up 1 3/4 to 361 3/4. Meal up a buck to keep a floor under beans, 902, plus 3 1/4. Wheat off 1 1/2 to close 458. More roll in the rice and a little more options activity, as well as what appears to be a new long willing to take the sellers volume down here. 1023 1/1, down 5 1/2. Snoozer in the financials, with bonds up 7 tics, 148.07, and dow gaining 8 points, 26,166.
4/09
WASDE was a dud, with basically nothing for nobody. Corn peeked lower but rejected and came back to unchanged, 360, with a very large spec short in tow. Ethanol will be the next story. Rice seller at it again, down 13 to 1029. I figured that 10.20-40 would be the lower end of this move, but I am surprised at how swiftly we have gotten here. On a positive, the long term bull positions are paying over 20 to roll to keep the position, even at this early date in the cycle. Good volume today, and I always respect volume. Also some bull strategy in the options. Beans in a snoozer, 898 3/4, unchanged. Wheat took another soft hit to 459 1/2, off 5 3/4. I had the itch to buy a little wheat tonight, But I have slammed my trading finger in a drawer until the desire subsided, at least for now. Dow off 176 to 26,158 with some concerns about Boeing. Go figure. Bonds gain 12 tics to 148 even.
WASDE was a dud, with basically nothing for nobody. Corn peeked lower but rejected and came back to unchanged, 360, with a very large spec short in tow. Ethanol will be the next story. Rice seller at it again, down 13 to 1029. I figured that 10.20-40 would be the lower end of this move, but I am surprised at how swiftly we have gotten here. On a positive, the long term bull positions are paying over 20 to roll to keep the position, even at this early date in the cycle. Good volume today, and I always respect volume. Also some bull strategy in the options. Beans in a snoozer, 898 3/4, unchanged. Wheat took another soft hit to 459 1/2, off 5 3/4. I had the itch to buy a little wheat tonight, But I have slammed my trading finger in a drawer until the desire subsided, at least for now. Dow off 176 to 26,158 with some concerns about Boeing. Go figure. Bonds gain 12 tics to 148 even.
4/08
Pre WASDE report trade has corn off another 2 1/2 to 360. Rice down another 9 1/2 to 1042 and nearing my support window. The silent hand of meal still supporting beans at 898 3/4, off 1/4. Wheat off 2 1/2 and feeling tired, which is against the weather, 465 1/4. Dow in a choppy trade but closes 60 lower, 26,334. Bonds slip 10 tics, 147.20.
Pre WASDE report trade has corn off another 2 1/2 to 360. Rice down another 9 1/2 to 1042 and nearing my support window. The silent hand of meal still supporting beans at 898 3/4, off 1/4. Wheat off 2 1/2 and feeling tired, which is against the weather, 465 1/4. Dow in a choppy trade but closes 60 lower, 26,334. Bonds slip 10 tics, 147.20.
4/05
Friday corn liquidation of 40K of OI was a drag on futures, 362 1/2, off 2 3/4. Rice liquidation continues as the big short might be getting all the way out. for the first time in a long time, 1051 1/2, down 3 1/2. Commercial pricing that got covered in cash might account for some of the selling in futures. Meal showed its soft side, which opened the door for beans to leak as well, 899, loss of 7 1/2. Wheat was also on the declining OI train to 467 3/4, down 3. Dow couldn't hold early strength or add to it, fading to 6 higher, 26,394. Quiet bond trade for an 8 tic gain, 147.30.
Friday corn liquidation of 40K of OI was a drag on futures, 362 1/2, off 2 3/4. Rice liquidation continues as the big short might be getting all the way out. for the first time in a long time, 1051 1/2, down 3 1/2. Commercial pricing that got covered in cash might account for some of the selling in futures. Meal showed its soft side, which opened the door for beans to leak as well, 899, loss of 7 1/2. Wheat was also on the declining OI train to 467 3/4, down 3. Dow couldn't hold early strength or add to it, fading to 6 higher, 26,394. Quiet bond trade for an 8 tic gain, 147.30.
4/04
Corn up another 2 1/2 to 365 1/4, but with declining volume. This baby bull needs fed soon or it will lay down. Rice off 12 to 1055 on good volume of new longs puking to the smart sellers of last week. Commercials seem to be interested in selling July puts from here on as well. Beans close 906 1/2, up 7 3/4 on solid meal and China hope. Wheat was a nothing, 470 3/4, off 1/4. Dow still climbing, up another 148 to 26,388, and bonds off 6 tics to 147.22
Corn up another 2 1/2 to 365 1/4, but with declining volume. This baby bull needs fed soon or it will lay down. Rice off 12 to 1055 on good volume of new longs puking to the smart sellers of last week. Commercials seem to be interested in selling July puts from here on as well. Beans close 906 1/2, up 7 3/4 on solid meal and China hope. Wheat was a nothing, 470 3/4, off 1/4. Dow still climbing, up another 148 to 26,388, and bonds off 6 tics to 147.22
4/03
Corn up 1 1/4 to 362 3/4. Front of oats getting a squeeze. Beans off 1 1/4 to settle 898 3/4 with stable meal. Wheat up 7 , 471, and the different types spreads getting a re alignment. Rice short term longs running to the sidelines, 1067 for a 12 1/2 cent loss. Dow up 87 points, 26,240. Bonds drop 26 tics to 147.16.
Corn up 1 1/4 to 362 3/4. Front of oats getting a squeeze. Beans off 1 1/4 to settle 898 3/4 with stable meal. Wheat up 7 , 471, and the different types spreads getting a re alignment. Rice short term longs running to the sidelines, 1067 for a 12 1/2 cent loss. Dow up 87 points, 26,240. Bonds drop 26 tics to 147.16.
4/02
Stable day today, with corn off 1/4 cent, 361 1/2. March 2020 and forward corn gaining 2-4 cents. Computer bears all in the front, sticking the guy with grain in the bin, while business is being done where todays farmer cant really play. Rice slips 6 1/2 to 1079 1/2 and some pretty decent sized buying under the market so far. Beans back to 9 bucks, plus 4 1/4, and meal back over 310. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 464. Dow takes a slight breather, 26,153, off 105 points. Bonds find 3 tics to settle 148.10.
Stable day today, with corn off 1/4 cent, 361 1/2. March 2020 and forward corn gaining 2-4 cents. Computer bears all in the front, sticking the guy with grain in the bin, while business is being done where todays farmer cant really play. Rice slips 6 1/2 to 1079 1/2 and some pretty decent sized buying under the market so far. Beans back to 9 bucks, plus 4 1/4, and meal back over 310. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 464. Dow takes a slight breather, 26,153, off 105 points. Bonds find 3 tics to settle 148.10.
4/01
Monday bounce back after an overdone break Friday across the grain room. Wheat up a nickel, 462 3/4. Rice up a penny, 1085, but OI now back under 8k and no new crop volume to price, and everyone wanting a buyer to hit. New crop basis contracts could get ugly without something from the outside. You have been warned. Meal up about 3 bucks and beans ran 11 1/4 to 895 1/2. More China flashes, but will there ever be enough. Corn gains 5 1/4 to 361 3/4, but with an OI drop of over 30k in the process, not a confidence builder. Hate to sound so negative today, but the picture isn't too pretty with Friday's new ink spread about. Bonds rolled over for a point and 14 tic loss to 148.07, so the top of my range held well there. Dow had an easy path up, 26,258, plus 325.
Monday bounce back after an overdone break Friday across the grain room. Wheat up a nickel, 462 3/4. Rice up a penny, 1085, but OI now back under 8k and no new crop volume to price, and everyone wanting a buyer to hit. New crop basis contracts could get ugly without something from the outside. You have been warned. Meal up about 3 bucks and beans ran 11 1/4 to 895 1/2. More China flashes, but will there ever be enough. Corn gains 5 1/4 to 361 3/4, but with an OI drop of over 30k in the process, not a confidence builder. Hate to sound so negative today, but the picture isn't too pretty with Friday's new ink spread about. Bonds rolled over for a point and 14 tic loss to 148.07, so the top of my range held well there. Dow had an easy path up, 26,258, plus 325.
3/29
Friday reports pivot around negative corn numbers, both in stocks and acres. I would expect we have seen the highest corn acres and lowest bean acres number of the year. Corn gets hammered for a 17 1/2 cent loss to 356 1/2. I have to re-evaluate my corn numbers going forward, but a bigger concern is global production that is creeping up. I think the market had room for shorts that had lifted pre report to get back in, but we probably overdid it. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1085 with liquidation trade. Meal stable and beans drop 5 1/4 to 884 1/4. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 457 3/4. Bloody ag day all around. Dow gains 196 to 25,933, and bonds slip 12 tics to 149.21.
Friday reports pivot around negative corn numbers, both in stocks and acres. I would expect we have seen the highest corn acres and lowest bean acres number of the year. Corn gets hammered for a 17 1/2 cent loss to 356 1/2. I have to re-evaluate my corn numbers going forward, but a bigger concern is global production that is creeping up. I think the market had room for shorts that had lifted pre report to get back in, but we probably overdid it. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1085 with liquidation trade. Meal stable and beans drop 5 1/4 to 884 1/4. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 457 3/4. Bloody ag day all around. Dow gains 196 to 25,933, and bonds slip 12 tics to 149.21.
3/28
Pre report clean up trade with corn up 1/4, 374. Wheat off another nickel, 464 1/2. Beans bounce 2 from a sloppy wed trade to close 889 1/2. Rice bull hit the market for 24 cents to lighten up as the commercial selling wall has held for now. Dow peaked lower but had no followers and rallied 77 higher to end the day 25,737. Bonds looked up new highs but faded with the dow rally back to off a tic, 150.01. Report at 11
Pre report clean up trade with corn up 1/4, 374. Wheat off another nickel, 464 1/2. Beans bounce 2 from a sloppy wed trade to close 889 1/2. Rice bull hit the market for 24 cents to lighten up as the commercial selling wall has held for now. Dow peaked lower but had no followers and rallied 77 higher to end the day 25,737. Bonds looked up new highs but faded with the dow rally back to off a tic, 150.01. Report at 11
3/27
Another soft day in front of exports, with meal off over 6 bucks, beans drop 13 1/4 to 887 1/2. Rice selling overwhelmed the bull for an 11 1/2 cent break, 1114 1/2. Corn weak as well, down 3 1/2 cents to 373 3/4 with a large spec short. Wheat just churned, 469 1/2, plus 1/4. Dow closed off 16 points to 25,660, but took a solid look lower and will want to probe those lows again I would expect. Bonds above my high mark, 150.02 for a 31 tic gain. We spend much time here and its a flight to quality or deflation. Not a fan of either.
Another soft day in front of exports, with meal off over 6 bucks, beans drop 13 1/4 to 887 1/2. Rice selling overwhelmed the bull for an 11 1/2 cent break, 1114 1/2. Corn weak as well, down 3 1/2 cents to 373 3/4 with a large spec short. Wheat just churned, 469 1/2, plus 1/4. Dow closed off 16 points to 25,660, but took a solid look lower and will want to probe those lows again I would expect. Bonds above my high mark, 150.02 for a 31 tic gain. We spend much time here and its a flight to quality or deflation. Not a fan of either.
3/26
Soft grain trade today. Corn gives back 2 1/2 to close 377 1/4. Beans drop 5 3/4 to 900 3/4 on $4 softer meal, and yet again I will stress my concerns about long term outlook for beans. Wheat tried the upside but faded to 1/4 lower to settle 469 1/4. Rice has a bull willing to push the bear and put some size behind it today. 1126, plus 9 1/2. For a cash market with the world for sale at $5, rice sure did cut thru easy, if not stalled for now. Time will tell. Dow off the highs but still 99 higher, 25,676. Bonds up 3 tics, 149.03. Fish weren't biting much today.
Soft grain trade today. Corn gives back 2 1/2 to close 377 1/4. Beans drop 5 3/4 to 900 3/4 on $4 softer meal, and yet again I will stress my concerns about long term outlook for beans. Wheat tried the upside but faded to 1/4 lower to settle 469 1/4. Rice has a bull willing to push the bear and put some size behind it today. 1126, plus 9 1/2. For a cash market with the world for sale at $5, rice sure did cut thru easy, if not stalled for now. Time will tell. Dow off the highs but still 99 higher, 25,676. Bonds up 3 tics, 149.03. Fish weren't biting much today.
3/25
More short covering, in corn, 379 3/4, plus 1 1/2. Beans up 2 3/4 to 906 1/2. Wheat gains 3 1/2 to 469 1/2. No one wants the short position in front of Friday with commitments showing such a large spec position. Lots of action in the rice, and when the short stopped covering, a system tried to push the market down. Ultimately bounced, but be aware that an active system thinks we have rallied far enough. 1116 1/2, minus 4 1/2. Dow looked up the down side of the market, but rallied to 7 higher, 25,577 close. Bonds up another 15 tics to close 149 even.
More short covering, in corn, 379 3/4, plus 1 1/2. Beans up 2 3/4 to 906 1/2. Wheat gains 3 1/2 to 469 1/2. No one wants the short position in front of Friday with commitments showing such a large spec position. Lots of action in the rice, and when the short stopped covering, a system tried to push the market down. Ultimately bounced, but be aware that an active system thinks we have rallied far enough. 1116 1/2, minus 4 1/2. Dow looked up the down side of the market, but rallied to 7 higher, 25,577 close. Bonds up another 15 tics to close 149 even.
3/22
Guess yesterdays action in the dow was just money flow. Got hammered today for a 441 point loss, 25,570. Bonds continued their march higher, 148.17 for a point and 13 tic gain. Inverted yield curves always lead to a recession, but this one is artificial, so I'm not sure how it will play out. The FED can fix it with a stroke of the pen. Corn peeked over 380 but settled 378 1/4, plus 2 cents. Shorts finally covering with a drop in OI. China stories getting more play as well. Rice up another 12 1/2 to 1121 as the short continues to cover, and new buyers are entering the fray as well. Wheat tried the upside but couldn't hold a rally and closed off 1/2 a penny, 466. Meal was stable, but beans gave up 6 3/4 to 903 3/4. I know most of you are pretty much out, but these beans have my downside radar up again. If you aren't comfortable with what we have for new crop hedges, or have some old left, we probably need to get some protection before the 29th.
Guess yesterdays action in the dow was just money flow. Got hammered today for a 441 point loss, 25,570. Bonds continued their march higher, 148.17 for a point and 13 tic gain. Inverted yield curves always lead to a recession, but this one is artificial, so I'm not sure how it will play out. The FED can fix it with a stroke of the pen. Corn peeked over 380 but settled 378 1/4, plus 2 cents. Shorts finally covering with a drop in OI. China stories getting more play as well. Rice up another 12 1/2 to 1121 as the short continues to cover, and new buyers are entering the fray as well. Wheat tried the upside but couldn't hold a rally and closed off 1/2 a penny, 466. Meal was stable, but beans gave up 6 3/4 to 903 3/4. I know most of you are pretty much out, but these beans have my downside radar up again. If you aren't comfortable with what we have for new crop hedges, or have some old left, we probably need to get some protection before the 29th.
3/21
Large spec shorts starting to feel some heat, as the western corn belt flooding is starting to take on a life of its own, and the news isn't pretty. Wheat tried to be the weak link, but in the end closed 1 3/4 higher, 466 1/2. Meal back over $315, and beans placed a 4 1/2 cent gain, 910 1/2. Corn up 4 3/4 to 376 1/4. Spec has a lot of buying to do if they want to even up before month end. Rice gains another solid 14 1/2 to 1108 1/2 and running into pricing. Dow put on quite the show, starting down 100 and closing up 282 for a 26,011 settle. That, with bonds holding all of yesterdays gain and adding another 5 tics to 147.04. This is an impressive showing, and I never want to read too much into one day, but my radar says we will get one of the secondary announcements soon. Not sure if its Japan or Canada/Mexico, but something positive is cooking. Could be something as simple as the fed back in line with Japan and EU central bankers, but it feels bigger than that to me. Lets see what tomorrow brings first. Maybe a Brexit deal?
Large spec shorts starting to feel some heat, as the western corn belt flooding is starting to take on a life of its own, and the news isn't pretty. Wheat tried to be the weak link, but in the end closed 1 3/4 higher, 466 1/2. Meal back over $315, and beans placed a 4 1/2 cent gain, 910 1/2. Corn up 4 3/4 to 376 1/4. Spec has a lot of buying to do if they want to even up before month end. Rice gains another solid 14 1/2 to 1108 1/2 and running into pricing. Dow put on quite the show, starting down 100 and closing up 282 for a 26,011 settle. That, with bonds holding all of yesterdays gain and adding another 5 tics to 147.04. This is an impressive showing, and I never want to read too much into one day, but my radar says we will get one of the secondary announcements soon. Not sure if its Japan or Canada/Mexico, but something positive is cooking. Could be something as simple as the fed back in line with Japan and EU central bankers, but it feels bigger than that to me. Lets see what tomorrow brings first. Maybe a Brexit deal?
3/20
Corn up 1/4 to 371 1/2. Beans up 2 cents, 906. Wheat was the hot had of the day, gaining 8 1/4 to 464 3/4, on short covering. Same story in rice, as the short is more aggressive in price and volume, 1094, plus 16. Fed went full dove , but the market wouldn't hold the rally, 25,729 dow, dropping 177. Bonds up a point and 6 tics, 146.31
Corn up 1/4 to 371 1/2. Beans up 2 cents, 906. Wheat was the hot had of the day, gaining 8 1/4 to 464 3/4, on short covering. Same story in rice, as the short is more aggressive in price and volume, 1094, plus 16. Fed went full dove , but the market wouldn't hold the rally, 25,729 dow, dropping 177. Bonds up a point and 6 tics, 146.31
Just a stalled catch your breath trade. Corn off 1/4, 371 1/4, and same story in wheat, 456 1/2. Beans slip 1 3/4 to 904, but meal stayed firm. Rice did gain 6 1/2 to 1078 as the short tries to quietly exit a big position. Dow off 59 points, 25,906 and bonds slip 11 tics to 145.25. This Missouri river flooding is going to have a bigger impact on production this year than currently being given credit, especially if we keep moisture coming up there.
3/18
Pretty dead Monday. Corn off 1 3/4 to 371 1/2. Rice down a penny, 1071 1/2. Beans drop 3 1/2 for a 905 3/4 close. Wheat trades the softest, 456 3/4, but still only off 5 1/2 after a solid run up last week. Dow struggles with more Boeing reports, but finds 66 points to end 25,965. TV bulls are trying to talk it up, thru resistance. Bonds off 2 tics, 146.04. Nothing screaming about export inspections, but way too much time and too many shorts for anyone to want to sell anything here, except the quants, and if you watch rice, you know they will sell more than any rational participant should.
Pretty dead Monday. Corn off 1 3/4 to 371 1/2. Rice down a penny, 1071 1/2. Beans drop 3 1/2 for a 905 3/4 close. Wheat trades the softest, 456 3/4, but still only off 5 1/2 after a solid run up last week. Dow struggles with more Boeing reports, but finds 66 points to end 25,965. TV bulls are trying to talk it up, thru resistance. Bonds off 2 tics, 146.04. Nothing screaming about export inspections, but way too much time and too many shorts for anyone to want to sell anything here, except the quants, and if you watch rice, you know they will sell more than any rational participant should.
3/15
Friday corn solid again. Ring a bell? Fundamentals just aren't as bearish as the fund money is, so quants have to pay the piper when they cant get more suckers to go along with them. 373 1/4, up 3 cents, and 11 from Mondays close. As silly fund money is allowed to become a bigger and bigger percent of the trade, these fund boys are going to make it harder and harder on the farmer that has to manage his money flow over short time frames. And increasing carry next year will probably make it worse. Rice off 3 to 1072 1/2 in a quiet trade. Meal solid all day and almost 5 bucks higher on the close. Beans gain 10 3/4 to 909 1/4, and could have been stronger. Wheat shorts couldn't get another push going, so covering trade ran us up another 9 1/2 to 462 1/4. Dow closes with a solid, 156 point gain to 25,899. Bonds regain all of Thursdays loss to settle 146.06, up 22 tics. Lots of cold and rain throughout the weekend, not what we need right now.
Friday corn solid again. Ring a bell? Fundamentals just aren't as bearish as the fund money is, so quants have to pay the piper when they cant get more suckers to go along with them. 373 1/4, up 3 cents, and 11 from Mondays close. As silly fund money is allowed to become a bigger and bigger percent of the trade, these fund boys are going to make it harder and harder on the farmer that has to manage his money flow over short time frames. And increasing carry next year will probably make it worse. Rice off 3 to 1072 1/2 in a quiet trade. Meal solid all day and almost 5 bucks higher on the close. Beans gain 10 3/4 to 909 1/4, and could have been stronger. Wheat shorts couldn't get another push going, so covering trade ran us up another 9 1/2 to 462 1/4. Dow closes with a solid, 156 point gain to 25,899. Bonds regain all of Thursdays loss to settle 146.06, up 22 tics. Lots of cold and rain throughout the weekend, not what we need right now.
3/14
Corn solid again, 370 1/4, up 3 3/4. Wheat firm with the shorts looking for the door as well, 452 3/4, up 5 1/2. Rice leaked with soft exports to 1075 1/2, down 7 1/2. Beans just churning around but close off 2 1/2 for a 898 1/2 settle. Nothing day in the financials with the dow slipping 26 points to 25,743, and bonds close 145.16, off 20 tics.
Corn solid again, 370 1/4, up 3 3/4. Wheat firm with the shorts looking for the door as well, 452 3/4, up 5 1/2. Rice leaked with soft exports to 1075 1/2, down 7 1/2. Beans just churning around but close off 2 1/2 for a 898 1/2 settle. Nothing day in the financials with the dow slipping 26 points to 25,743, and bonds close 145.16, off 20 tics.
3/13
Corn up another 3/4 to 366 1/2 as buzz about a slug of corn moving to China via PNW circulates. Rice up 9 1/2, settling 1083, with the short running out of people to herd. Beans gain 4 for a 901 close and meal stable to solid thru the day. Wheat back and filling yesterdays big run up, 447 1/4, off 5 3/4. Dow up 180 to 25,769, and bonds slip 9 tics to 146.04.
Corn up another 3/4 to 366 1/2 as buzz about a slug of corn moving to China via PNW circulates. Rice up 9 1/2, settling 1083, with the short running out of people to herd. Beans gain 4 for a 901 close and meal stable to solid thru the day. Wheat back and filling yesterdays big run up, 447 1/4, off 5 3/4. Dow up 180 to 25,769, and bonds slip 9 tics to 146.04.
3/12
A few wheat shorts wanted out. and no more computers to sell brought a solid rally to 453, up 24 1/2 on the day, and no real volume until we got 20 higher. No real follow thru so far, as this is an order flow spike on an order flow break. Its more inconvenient, but a trip to Vegas to play poker probably has the same or better odds. Definitely a better view. Corn up 3 3/4 to 365 3/4 and ethanol E15 for the summertime is really the bellwether for the next month, and don't kid yourselves, this fight is as much about RINs as it is E15. Beans up 7 to 897, but meal sure didn't show much enthusiasm. Rice up a couple to 1073 1/2 as volume has died, the buyer expecting the seller to come to him by the end of the week. High river is helping the buyer, hurting the farmer. Any excuse is a good one to cut basis. Dow off 101 to 25,589, and bonds up 25 tics to 146.13 and approaching the high side of the range.
A few wheat shorts wanted out. and no more computers to sell brought a solid rally to 453, up 24 1/2 on the day, and no real volume until we got 20 higher. No real follow thru so far, as this is an order flow spike on an order flow break. Its more inconvenient, but a trip to Vegas to play poker probably has the same or better odds. Definitely a better view. Corn up 3 3/4 to 365 3/4 and ethanol E15 for the summertime is really the bellwether for the next month, and don't kid yourselves, this fight is as much about RINs as it is E15. Beans up 7 to 897, but meal sure didn't show much enthusiasm. Rice up a couple to 1073 1/2 as volume has died, the buyer expecting the seller to come to him by the end of the week. High river is helping the buyer, hurting the farmer. Any excuse is a good one to cut basis. Dow off 101 to 25,589, and bonds up 25 tics to 146.13 and approaching the high side of the range.
3/11
Large managed money funds continue their selling ways, hitting corn for another 2 1/4 to 362. Rice is off 10 1/2 to 1071 1/2, but that is more a function of the short taking a step back and another computer herding the guys who might have held too long. Beans close 890, off 5 3/4, and wheat gets pummeled for another 11 cents, 428 1/2. The old adage about never try to catch a falling knife has blood on my hands. I am surprised that the funds would accumulate such a large grain short position at this time of the year, and especially with conditions in the US for planting the way it is right now. At some point the money boys will get run out, but patience is running thin. We love them when they exaggerate to the upside, and cuss them for what they are doing now. June for the financials, as the dow gains 162 to 25,690, and that is in the face of Boeing getting hammered for not keeping its planes flying. Bonds brush the action off as noise, 145.20, off 11 tics.
Large managed money funds continue their selling ways, hitting corn for another 2 1/4 to 362. Rice is off 10 1/2 to 1071 1/2, but that is more a function of the short taking a step back and another computer herding the guys who might have held too long. Beans close 890, off 5 3/4, and wheat gets pummeled for another 11 cents, 428 1/2. The old adage about never try to catch a falling knife has blood on my hands. I am surprised that the funds would accumulate such a large grain short position at this time of the year, and especially with conditions in the US for planting the way it is right now. At some point the money boys will get run out, but patience is running thin. We love them when they exaggerate to the upside, and cuss them for what they are doing now. June for the financials, as the dow gains 162 to 25,690, and that is in the face of Boeing getting hammered for not keeping its planes flying. Bonds brush the action off as noise, 145.20, off 11 tics.
3/08
Friday Corn off another penny to 364 1/4 as the spec short continues to add to sells on the lows, approaching 200k short. Rice short is trying to unwind, up another 3 to 1082. As of Tuesday, he was short 4688 contracts, or 57% of the total open interest. If you cant see how this is hurting the farmer, you are blind or ignorant. Something better be done before next year when this infection can roll into beans and corn. WASDE didn't give us anything to write home about in any of the grains, and that isn't helping either. Beans off 6 3/4 to 895 3/4, and wheat gains 1 1/4 to 439 1/2. Dow up 28 points to 25,495 and the bonds up 6 tics to 146.21. Will be switching to June for the financials starting Monday.
Friday Corn off another penny to 364 1/4 as the spec short continues to add to sells on the lows, approaching 200k short. Rice short is trying to unwind, up another 3 to 1082. As of Tuesday, he was short 4688 contracts, or 57% of the total open interest. If you cant see how this is hurting the farmer, you are blind or ignorant. Something better be done before next year when this infection can roll into beans and corn. WASDE didn't give us anything to write home about in any of the grains, and that isn't helping either. Beans off 6 3/4 to 895 3/4, and wheat gains 1 1/4 to 439 1/2. Dow up 28 points to 25,495 and the bonds up 6 tics to 146.21. Will be switching to June for the financials starting Monday.
3/07
Fund money selling again the feature as the hit corn to 365 1/4, off 7 1/2, and wheat for another 11 3/4 cents to 438 1/4. We get to a point where their money simply overwhelms the buying, and for periods of time, we, as the farming community are simply losers in the game. Beans are stable with meal, as we gain 1/2 cent on a nothing trade to 902 1/2. Fund money must believe beans are off limits for now, at the risk of having President Trump alerted. Rice set new highs but backed off to 1079, minus 7 1/2. Short probably got another 500 covered. Dow weak all day and closes 199 lower, 25,467. Bond fight to quality as expected, 29 tic gain to 146.15. Now we sit and await the 11 o'clock report.
Fund money selling again the feature as the hit corn to 365 1/4, off 7 1/2, and wheat for another 11 3/4 cents to 438 1/4. We get to a point where their money simply overwhelms the buying, and for periods of time, we, as the farming community are simply losers in the game. Beans are stable with meal, as we gain 1/2 cent on a nothing trade to 902 1/2. Fund money must believe beans are off limits for now, at the risk of having President Trump alerted. Rice set new highs but backed off to 1079, minus 7 1/2. Short probably got another 500 covered. Dow weak all day and closes 199 lower, 25,467. Bond fight to quality as expected, 29 tic gain to 146.15. Now we sit and await the 11 o'clock report.
3/06
Wednesday trade soft on no news out of china and funds who want to sell everything. Wheat rejected Tuesdays positive trade on the charts for a 12 3/4 cent puke to 450. Corn followed suit with funds adding to shorts and dropping 3 1/4 cents, 372 1/2. Meal was weak and that allowed for soft beans. 902, down 11 3/4. Rice short started to cover into new commercial selling and gained 15 to 1086 1/2. Commercials are happy to use the icebergs and big volume offers to entice the short to buy his way out. Don't see anything in the reports tomorrow that should overly upset the grains, other than an acreage shift and a potential export sales adjustment. Dow was soft all day as the big money guys want to sell everything that moves, 25,666 for a 161 point loss. Could have been worse, and still might. Bonds firm 15 tics higher, 145.18.
Wednesday trade soft on no news out of china and funds who want to sell everything. Wheat rejected Tuesdays positive trade on the charts for a 12 3/4 cent puke to 450. Corn followed suit with funds adding to shorts and dropping 3 1/4 cents, 372 1/2. Meal was weak and that allowed for soft beans. 902, down 11 3/4. Rice short started to cover into new commercial selling and gained 15 to 1086 1/2. Commercials are happy to use the icebergs and big volume offers to entice the short to buy his way out. Don't see anything in the reports tomorrow that should overly upset the grains, other than an acreage shift and a potential export sales adjustment. Dow was soft all day as the big money guys want to sell everything that moves, 25,666 for a 161 point loss. Could have been worse, and still might. Bonds firm 15 tics higher, 145.18.
3/05
Spec short in wheat looked to lighten up, and board rallied 7 1/4 to 462 3/4. My slo sto went positive from very low levels. Corn traded a relatively tight range and settled 375 3/4 for another penny gain. Beans had a little pressure early but only gave up 2 1/4 to end at 913 3/4. Rice bear is feeling the heat as buying stayed around all day again. Only a 4 cent gain, but for our big spec short, 1071 1/2 is a tough settle to be choking on. Dow was a churn trade with a 13 point gain, 25,827. Bonds up a tic, 145.03.
Spec short in wheat looked to lighten up, and board rallied 7 1/4 to 462 3/4. My slo sto went positive from very low levels. Corn traded a relatively tight range and settled 375 3/4 for another penny gain. Beans had a little pressure early but only gave up 2 1/4 to end at 913 3/4. Rice bear is feeling the heat as buying stayed around all day again. Only a 4 cent gain, but for our big spec short, 1071 1/2 is a tough settle to be choking on. Dow was a churn trade with a 13 point gain, 25,827. Bonds up a tic, 145.03.
3/04
Monday brought firm grain prices with more stories of china deals, but ag faded late on fund selling and weakness in the dow. Corn closed 1 3/4 higher, 374 3/4. Rice rally was good for 14 1/2 cents, 1067 1/2. Beans followed a $3 meal rally to close 916, up 4 1/2. Wheat got pushed 1 3/4 lower late in the day to 455 1/2. Dow was the big loser, settling off 217 at 25,814, and that was 200 off the lows. Bonds were firm all day and ultimately gained 19 tis, 145.02.
Monday brought firm grain prices with more stories of china deals, but ag faded late on fund selling and weakness in the dow. Corn closed 1 3/4 higher, 374 3/4. Rice rally was good for 14 1/2 cents, 1067 1/2. Beans followed a $3 meal rally to close 916, up 4 1/2. Wheat got pushed 1 3/4 lower late in the day to 455 1/2. Dow was the big loser, settling off 217 at 25,814, and that was 200 off the lows. Bonds were firm all day and ultimately gained 19 tis, 145.02.
3/01
Happy new month and new managed money to spend. Corn open interest up 18K as the sellers came out early to add to their already significant short, but ran out of bullets and the market turned higher, 373 settle for a 2 1/4 cent gain. All the grains rejected the initial wave of selling, with beans ending 1 1/4 higher, 911 1/2, meal up about a buck and a half, and wheat closing 457 1/4, minus 2 1/4 but a dime off the lows. Remember, these money boys usually divide up their volume over 3 to 5 days, so expect smaller batches of selling Monday and Tuesday. The buy side know this as well. Rice down a dime to 1053 to end the week. In what has to be an astounding statistic, the delayed commitments of traders have managed money short 4684 contracts of rice as of 2/19. That's over 1/2 of the total OI of the contract short by non ag players. Never before that I know of has that happened. In the other grains its not even close. BTW, guess what day we set the lows for the rice move. 2/19 ring a bell. Dow up 118 to 26,031 and bonds down another 21 tics to 144.15. Big money seems comfortable with T-money and a deal getting done.
Happy new month and new managed money to spend. Corn open interest up 18K as the sellers came out early to add to their already significant short, but ran out of bullets and the market turned higher, 373 settle for a 2 1/4 cent gain. All the grains rejected the initial wave of selling, with beans ending 1 1/4 higher, 911 1/2, meal up about a buck and a half, and wheat closing 457 1/4, minus 2 1/4 but a dime off the lows. Remember, these money boys usually divide up their volume over 3 to 5 days, so expect smaller batches of selling Monday and Tuesday. The buy side know this as well. Rice down a dime to 1053 to end the week. In what has to be an astounding statistic, the delayed commitments of traders have managed money short 4684 contracts of rice as of 2/19. That's over 1/2 of the total OI of the contract short by non ag players. Never before that I know of has that happened. In the other grains its not even close. BTW, guess what day we set the lows for the rice move. 2/19 ring a bell. Dow up 118 to 26,031 and bonds down another 21 tics to 144.15. Big money seems comfortable with T-money and a deal getting done.
2/28
Month ends with new increases in OI as the big specs continue to load up short in the 3 big grains. Corn off another 3 cents to 370 3/4. Beans drop 6 1/2 to 910 1/4 on weak meal. Whet continues its slide into oblivion, 459 1/2, minus 7 1/4. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1063 as the short seems like he just is too full to sell, but cant stomach the blue side of the card. Dow off 95 to settle 25,913, while bonds drop 14 tics to 145.04.
Month ends with new increases in OI as the big specs continue to load up short in the 3 big grains. Corn off another 3 cents to 370 3/4. Beans drop 6 1/2 to 910 1/4 on weak meal. Whet continues its slide into oblivion, 459 1/2, minus 7 1/4. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1063 as the short seems like he just is too full to sell, but cant stomach the blue side of the card. Dow off 95 to settle 25,913, while bonds drop 14 tics to 145.04.
2/27
Deliveries in line to heavy. Margin clerks are done putting the pressure on weak longs, so I would expect the liquidation trade selling to finally be done. Large specs are getting near 100K short corn. Computers don't care what is going on around them, until the cooling fan switches off and they overheat. We will be switching to may for the grains moving forward. Corn closes off 2 1/4 to 373 3/4. Rice off a nickel, 1057 1/2. Beans stalled out at 916 3/4, minus 1/4. Meal up a couple bucks. Wheat down 1 1/2 to 466 3/4. Dow futures churn and settle 26,008, off 29, while bonds drop a full point and 8 tics to 145.18. Remember, a declining bond trade means the big money is getting more comfortable with the global environment. Export sales solid to heavy, especially with the river situation, and rice with 110K of new business, mostly LG. Nice to see Panama and Nicaragua in the mix. No deal signed with N Korea, and I have to believe that has China on notice, if not somewhat concerned. N K is nothing more than a proxy for China, and for our president to fly over to sign a deal, and then walk when they try to get endgame concessions, they now know he will walk on them as well. China moved a pawn, and America put it to the side of the board.
Deliveries in line to heavy. Margin clerks are done putting the pressure on weak longs, so I would expect the liquidation trade selling to finally be done. Large specs are getting near 100K short corn. Computers don't care what is going on around them, until the cooling fan switches off and they overheat. We will be switching to may for the grains moving forward. Corn closes off 2 1/4 to 373 3/4. Rice off a nickel, 1057 1/2. Beans stalled out at 916 3/4, minus 1/4. Meal up a couple bucks. Wheat down 1 1/2 to 466 3/4. Dow futures churn and settle 26,008, off 29, while bonds drop a full point and 8 tics to 145.18. Remember, a declining bond trade means the big money is getting more comfortable with the global environment. Export sales solid to heavy, especially with the river situation, and rice with 110K of new business, mostly LG. Nice to see Panama and Nicaragua in the mix. No deal signed with N Korea, and I have to believe that has China on notice, if not somewhat concerned. N K is nothing more than a proxy for China, and for our president to fly over to sign a deal, and then walk when they try to get endgame concessions, they now know he will walk on them as well. China moved a pawn, and America put it to the side of the board.
2/26
Tuesday trade was very educational in what the farmer is competing with to value and price his grain. Corn went from wholesale liquidation Monday to new spec shorts, pushing us to new lows for the period, 366 1/4, off 4 1/4, and that is in the face of tighter carryover and thoughts that china will be a taker of corn. Not to mention the various barriers to making a trend line crop this year. Computers don't care, and since a real person isn't making the trade, they don't have to be responsible. Wheat follow thru selling for another 6 1/2 cents to 460 1/4, and hopefully for the farmer that hasn't priced his wheat, maybe running out of breath. Rice closes up 26 1/2 on the day, 1036 1/2, although it was looking near 50 higher on the day. Any big news? Short squeeze in the spread? No. Just a computer that decided its time to buy back some of an ungodly large spec short position. The looser is yet again the farmer who had to sell against a basis contract, or time ran out with his banker while the quants were having their fun. Beans drop 8 to 903 3/4 with patience running thin on a China deal. Dow off 62 points, 26,037 and bonds rally 22 tics to 146.26.
Tuesday trade was very educational in what the farmer is competing with to value and price his grain. Corn went from wholesale liquidation Monday to new spec shorts, pushing us to new lows for the period, 366 1/4, off 4 1/4, and that is in the face of tighter carryover and thoughts that china will be a taker of corn. Not to mention the various barriers to making a trend line crop this year. Computers don't care, and since a real person isn't making the trade, they don't have to be responsible. Wheat follow thru selling for another 6 1/2 cents to 460 1/4, and hopefully for the farmer that hasn't priced his wheat, maybe running out of breath. Rice closes up 26 1/2 on the day, 1036 1/2, although it was looking near 50 higher on the day. Any big news? Short squeeze in the spread? No. Just a computer that decided its time to buy back some of an ungodly large spec short position. The looser is yet again the farmer who had to sell against a basis contract, or time ran out with his banker while the quants were having their fun. Beans drop 8 to 903 3/4 with patience running thin on a China deal. Dow off 62 points, 26,037 and bonds rally 22 tics to 146.26.
2/25
Monday trade heavy in front of first notice for march futures. Any longs in march need to be rolling. Corn off 4 3/4 in big time liquidation trade to 370 1/2. Rice off 9 cents, 1010. Beans up 1 1/2 with china rumors and all, 911 3/4. Meal was sloppy and lifeless. Wheat got hammered for 20 cents, 466 3/4. That's just a wow trade. As the computers dial up their sell program and buyers know they can step to the side, markets tumble. Time will tell if the market will accept this lower price, or this is just a first notice flight. Dow up 97 points to 26,099, but tired, and bonds slip 9 tics in a nothing day, 146.04.
Monday trade heavy in front of first notice for march futures. Any longs in march need to be rolling. Corn off 4 3/4 in big time liquidation trade to 370 1/2. Rice off 9 cents, 1010. Beans up 1 1/2 with china rumors and all, 911 3/4. Meal was sloppy and lifeless. Wheat got hammered for 20 cents, 466 3/4. That's just a wow trade. As the computers dial up their sell program and buyers know they can step to the side, markets tumble. Time will tell if the market will accept this lower price, or this is just a first notice flight. Dow up 97 points to 26,099, but tired, and bonds slip 9 tics in a nothing day, 146.04.
2/22
Friday trade in a holding pattern as trade hopes and concerns with China overshadow everything else. Corn off 1/4 to 375 1/4. Rice closes 1019, down 2 cents. Beans settle 910 1/4, minus 3/4. Wheat ends the day 486 3/4. plus 1/4 but soft on the days trade. Notice how all the grains basically pinned an option strike? On expirations day, always expect a settlement where the most pain can be felt. Dow rallies 169 to close 26,002, and bonds recover 20 tics to 146.13.
Friday trade in a holding pattern as trade hopes and concerns with China overshadow everything else. Corn off 1/4 to 375 1/4. Rice closes 1019, down 2 cents. Beans settle 910 1/4, minus 3/4. Wheat ends the day 486 3/4. plus 1/4 but soft on the days trade. Notice how all the grains basically pinned an option strike? On expirations day, always expect a settlement where the most pain can be felt. Dow rallies 169 to close 26,002, and bonds recover 20 tics to 146.13.
2/21
Shorts scurry out of their positions in the grains as fear that we might get a deal done with china starts to sink in. Lower bean acres and corn acres out of the USDA than expected has raised the downside floor for the time being as well. Corn up 4 3/4 to 375 1/2. Rice up another 17 1/2 to 1021. Still under cash. Beans gain8 1/2 to 911. Wheat finds a floor and closes up 5 3/4 as well, 486 1/2. Dow has a churn trade day but ends 131 lower, 25,833. Bonds off 26 tics to 145.25 with nothing I can see to justify softness, but we are in an area where point either way means almost nothing. March options expire today, so if you have any, please stay in touch throughout the day.
Shorts scurry out of their positions in the grains as fear that we might get a deal done with china starts to sink in. Lower bean acres and corn acres out of the USDA than expected has raised the downside floor for the time being as well. Corn up 4 3/4 to 375 1/2. Rice up another 17 1/2 to 1021. Still under cash. Beans gain8 1/2 to 911. Wheat finds a floor and closes up 5 3/4 as well, 486 1/2. Dow has a churn trade day but ends 131 lower, 25,833. Bonds off 26 tics to 145.25 with nothing I can see to justify softness, but we are in an area where point either way means almost nothing. March options expire today, so if you have any, please stay in touch throughout the day.
02/20
Wheat got the hammer again, as spec shorts piled in and weak longs gave up. 9 lower close, 480 3/4, but probably done on this wave down. Corn opened firm, bears tried to push it lower and failed, penny better close, 370 3/4. Beans started weak, but rallied to 1 3/4 higher,902 1/2. Same story in rice but bigger, 1003 1/2 at the end of the day for a 17 cent gain. Expect the bear to try to defend early, but his bullets are mostly spent. Dow up 81 to 25,964 and bonds drop 8 tics, 146.19.
Wheat got the hammer again, as spec shorts piled in and weak longs gave up. 9 lower close, 480 3/4, but probably done on this wave down. Corn opened firm, bears tried to push it lower and failed, penny better close, 370 3/4. Beans started weak, but rallied to 1 3/4 higher,902 1/2. Same story in rice but bigger, 1003 1/2 at the end of the day for a 17 cent gain. Expect the bear to try to defend early, but his bullets are mostly spent. Dow up 81 to 25,964 and bonds drop 8 tics, 146.19.
Weak Tuesday trade after a long weekend. Corn drops a nickel to 369 3/4 with another bout of new spec selling. Rice spec bear still hammering, down 13 to 986 1/2. That's going to buy zero acres. Beans down 6 3/4 for a 900 3/4 settle, although meal did hold 305. Wheat found thin air below, and path of least resistance for wheat is down, so 489 3/4 close, down 14 1/2. Dow just churned the day and closed 25,883, off 5. Bonds dull as well, plus tics to 146.27.
02/15
Big story of the day was excitement in the dow that a deal would be cut soon with China. Real story is there was money that needed to come off the sidelines so the computers did a good job of getting the money managers back to the dance. 25,888, plus 461 for the dow. Bonds were boring, up 2 tics to 146.18. Corn unchanged at 374 3/4, but there was an 18K bump in OI and oats dropped 6 more to 275. Beans lost 22K in OI, so there is a shift in money being put to work in ag as we unwind march positions. Beans still gained 4 to 907 1/2. Wheat peeked below the buck, but closed at 504 1/4, off 2 3/4. Seemed like it just ran out of sellers. Rice market is getting quite interesting and should get more interesting by next Friday as we transfer ownership. 3K of volume in an 8K contract with a 560 bump in OI on the lows doesn't just happen every day. End result is 999 1/2 settle, minus 19. We have to wait another week to see who the bully is, and then us commoners will finally get back to as close as the government will allow us to the professionals, data wise.
Big story of the day was excitement in the dow that a deal would be cut soon with China. Real story is there was money that needed to come off the sidelines so the computers did a good job of getting the money managers back to the dance. 25,888, plus 461 for the dow. Bonds were boring, up 2 tics to 146.18. Corn unchanged at 374 3/4, but there was an 18K bump in OI and oats dropped 6 more to 275. Beans lost 22K in OI, so there is a shift in money being put to work in ag as we unwind march positions. Beans still gained 4 to 907 1/2. Wheat peeked below the buck, but closed at 504 1/4, off 2 3/4. Seemed like it just ran out of sellers. Rice market is getting quite interesting and should get more interesting by next Friday as we transfer ownership. 3K of volume in an 8K contract with a 560 bump in OI on the lows doesn't just happen every day. End result is 999 1/2 settle, minus 19. We have to wait another week to see who the bully is, and then us commoners will finally get back to as close as the government will allow us to the professionals, data wise.
02/14
Happy valentines day. Especially the red side. Corn off 4 cents, 374 3/4, and it broke this time without big new selling. Funny, because the current rumor is China wants corn in any new export deals, and with their demand, I expect to ship there this year. Rice seller back with another couple hundred, 1018 1/2, off 7 1/2, and these last few days we have had a significant shift in ownership at a pretty low price, with a squeezing spread.. Export sales numbers poor for beans, but hard to be surprised given these are old stale numbers from year end. 13 cent break to 903 1/2. I still don't like beans. Wheat gets clobbered to 507, off 15 1/4 and getting overdone. Dow futures churn the day away and close 25,427, lower by 61. Bonds rally 24 tics to 146.16.
Happy valentines day. Especially the red side. Corn off 4 cents, 374 3/4, and it broke this time without big new selling. Funny, because the current rumor is China wants corn in any new export deals, and with their demand, I expect to ship there this year. Rice seller back with another couple hundred, 1018 1/2, off 7 1/2, and these last few days we have had a significant shift in ownership at a pretty low price, with a squeezing spread.. Export sales numbers poor for beans, but hard to be surprised given these are old stale numbers from year end. 13 cent break to 903 1/2. I still don't like beans. Wheat gets clobbered to 507, off 15 1/4 and getting overdone. Dow futures churn the day away and close 25,427, lower by 61. Bonds rally 24 tics to 146.16.
02/13
Corn up 1/2 to 378 3/4. The long story still looks good to me in corn and bad in soy. Rice up a penny on big volume, spread roll, and a new short having a hard time pushing the market down much. 1026. Beans off a penny, 916 1/2, and has given us more time than I thought to get some priced, and I hope you have some priced. I can go over different options depending on your situation, but don't wait too long on this train. Wheat up 2 1/4, to 522 1/4. Dow hitting harder areas to push thru, but still 82 up for the day, 25,488, while bonds slip 7 tics to 145.24.
Corn up 1/2 to 378 3/4. The long story still looks good to me in corn and bad in soy. Rice up a penny on big volume, spread roll, and a new short having a hard time pushing the market down much. 1026. Beans off a penny, 916 1/2, and has given us more time than I thought to get some priced, and I hope you have some priced. I can go over different options depending on your situation, but don't wait too long on this train. Wheat up 2 1/4, to 522 1/4. Dow hitting harder areas to push thru, but still 82 up for the day, 25,488, while bonds slip 7 tics to 145.24.
02/12
China relief rally in the dow to 25,406, up 389, that's a Pontiac engine BTW, as rumors abound that some form of a deal is in the works. Feb 12 is mighty early to buy that story. Like clockwork for the corn, 13k of Monday shorts tried to cover and forced a 5 1/2 cent rally, 378 1/4. Sadly, a range churn. Rice seller didn't get much for his extra 140 sells as the market closed only 2 lower, 1025. 118 more of the McGehee receipts got cancelled. Barges need rice too. Beans gain 12 1/2 to 917 1/2 and meal gains 4 bucks as well. More SA supply talk, and the obvious China daily update. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 520. Bonds slip 13 tics in quiet trade to 145.31.
China relief rally in the dow to 25,406, up 389, that's a Pontiac engine BTW, as rumors abound that some form of a deal is in the works. Feb 12 is mighty early to buy that story. Like clockwork for the corn, 13k of Monday shorts tried to cover and forced a 5 1/2 cent rally, 378 1/4. Sadly, a range churn. Rice seller didn't get much for his extra 140 sells as the market closed only 2 lower, 1025. 118 more of the McGehee receipts got cancelled. Barges need rice too. Beans gain 12 1/2 to 917 1/2 and meal gains 4 bucks as well. More SA supply talk, and the obvious China daily update. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 520. Bonds slip 13 tics in quiet trade to 145.31.
02/11
Weakness Monday as corn bears push 1 1/2 lower to 372 3/4. Open interest up 23K to push down not even 2 cents. Rice roll again and a 9 1/2 cent break, 1027. Getting to the low end of my profile, and seeing 160 vs. cash business. Beans drop 9 1/2 to 905. I'm just not getting a fuzzy feeling about beans and hope everyone has at least some downside protection by now. Wheat up a penny, 518 1/4. Dow futures lose 64 points to 25,017 and bonds drop 16 tics, 146.12.
Weakness Monday as corn bears push 1 1/2 lower to 372 3/4. Open interest up 23K to push down not even 2 cents. Rice roll again and a 9 1/2 cent break, 1027. Getting to the low end of my profile, and seeing 160 vs. cash business. Beans drop 9 1/2 to 905. I'm just not getting a fuzzy feeling about beans and hope everyone has at least some downside protection by now. Wheat up a penny, 518 1/4. Dow futures lose 64 points to 25,017 and bonds drop 16 tics, 146.12.
02/08
WASDE was much ado about nothing, as we came in pretty close to what the street, believed. Corn pressed to close the day 2 1/4 lower, 374 1/4 , with 15k new shorts in the mix to do it. Rice bear hit the market again in futures, 1036 1/2, minus 13 1/2. Options story had what appears to be a commercial selling 1040 puts, while someone else bought a couple hundred vertical call spreads and financed them with puts. Obviously the options trade sees things differently than the spec short. This is starting to remind me of a slow motion May trade, and a guy made a lot of money if he played the spec sucker right then. Commitments has the fish short 3444 contracts, abet delayed. Beans at 910 million C.O. is too high, but settled 914 1/2, plus 1 1/4. Wheat recovered 4 from Thursday overzealous selling, 517 1/4. Dow looked weak and weaker, but found footing to recover to 25,081, off 50 points. Bonds up another 12 tics, 146.28, and looking for about 2 more points to test the end of year fear trade. Bonds love to test fear trades. That's where I'd be waiting for if I was looking to sell, at least for now.
WASDE was much ado about nothing, as we came in pretty close to what the street, believed. Corn pressed to close the day 2 1/4 lower, 374 1/4 , with 15k new shorts in the mix to do it. Rice bear hit the market again in futures, 1036 1/2, minus 13 1/2. Options story had what appears to be a commercial selling 1040 puts, while someone else bought a couple hundred vertical call spreads and financed them with puts. Obviously the options trade sees things differently than the spec short. This is starting to remind me of a slow motion May trade, and a guy made a lot of money if he played the spec sucker right then. Commitments has the fish short 3444 contracts, abet delayed. Beans at 910 million C.O. is too high, but settled 914 1/2, plus 1 1/4. Wheat recovered 4 from Thursday overzealous selling, 517 1/4. Dow looked weak and weaker, but found footing to recover to 25,081, off 50 points. Bonds up another 12 tics, 146.28, and looking for about 2 more points to test the end of year fear trade. Bonds love to test fear trades. That's where I'd be waiting for if I was looking to sell, at least for now.
02/07
Pre report jitters and Trump delaying the china meeting have the market on its heals. Corn off 3 1/2 to close Thursday trade 376 1/2. 18K new open interest says the short player wants to make yet another run at pushing a carry market down. If you don't realize the detrimental effect that wide carry has on market participants, this should be textbook 101. Yet the CME will be raising storage charges, thus increasing how wide carry can get, next year. On shipping certs no less. Rice off 7 to 1050, and decent volume was transfer of ownership to stronger hands, not roll. Beans drop 8 1/2 to 913 1/4, and I'm looking for the exit from this dance, and I mean fast. Wheat off 12 3/4 to 513 1/4. Dow futures down 196 to 25,131 and bonds gain 27 tics to 146.16. Fed will stand down for the foreseeable future.
Pre report jitters and Trump delaying the china meeting have the market on its heals. Corn off 3 1/2 to close Thursday trade 376 1/2. 18K new open interest says the short player wants to make yet another run at pushing a carry market down. If you don't realize the detrimental effect that wide carry has on market participants, this should be textbook 101. Yet the CME will be raising storage charges, thus increasing how wide carry can get, next year. On shipping certs no less. Rice off 7 to 1050, and decent volume was transfer of ownership to stronger hands, not roll. Beans drop 8 1/2 to 913 1/4, and I'm looking for the exit from this dance, and I mean fast. Wheat off 12 3/4 to 513 1/4. Dow futures down 196 to 25,131 and bonds gain 27 tics to 146.16. Fed will stand down for the foreseeable future.
2/06
Another quiet, firm day Tuesday. Corn up 1 1/2 to 380 3/4. Oats close 291 with no carry in the spreads, another positive. Rice up 5 1/2 on short covering. Beans gain 1 3/4 to 920 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/2 for a 527 1/4 close. Dow futures gain 136 to 25,324 and bonds rally 14 tics to get back most of Mondays slippage in the churn, 145.22. Lots of repositioning before Fridays WASDE, and our MONTH old fantasy trade data out of CFTC commitments show the spec rice short ballooning his position over 3000 contracts to end the year. Granted its month old data, but still.
Another quiet, firm day Tuesday. Corn up 1 1/2 to 380 3/4. Oats close 291 with no carry in the spreads, another positive. Rice up 5 1/2 on short covering. Beans gain 1 3/4 to 920 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/2 for a 527 1/4 close. Dow futures gain 136 to 25,324 and bonds rally 14 tics to get back most of Mondays slippage in the churn, 145.22. Lots of repositioning before Fridays WASDE, and our MONTH old fantasy trade data out of CFTC commitments show the spec rice short ballooning his position over 3000 contracts to end the year. Granted its month old data, but still.
2/04
Quiet weekend leads to a quiet but firm market. Corn gains a penny to 379 1/4. Rice up 3 to 1068. Meal leaked a buck, but beans closed 3/4 higher, 918 1/2. Wheat shorts cover for 1 1/2 cent gain, 525 3/4. Dow futures rally 192 points to 25,188. Bonds drop 22 tics to 145.08 |
2/1
Strength across the grain market Friday. Oats closed up 6 and showed they aren't done yet. Corn was good for 1 3/4 to 378 1/4, working on rebuilding Thursdays loss. 1065 rice was a 4 cent gain, but spread roll was again the feature. Beans close 2 1/2 higher, 917 3/4, but that is a deceptive close as we had a range of 931-917, so we basically settled on the low, and my radar is up. Wheat was up 7 3/4 to 524 1/4. Dow futures ended up 20 points to 24,996 but that is 150 off the highs. Glad we held all of Wednesdays gains. Bonds gave up 24 tics to 145.30. I have thought 8 ways to Sunday on how to address the governments release of numbers after the shutdown, and there just isn't a way to sugar coat it. Commitments will be released on Tuesday and Friday each week, but in arrears, until caught up. Exports will be released weekly but in arrears until the catchup on Feb. 22. But somehow they have all the data to release WASDE on Feb. 8. This is how they teach you about simulated trading in low level ag marketing classes, like you get a weeks data each day, so you can trade 40 weeks in 40 days. And every one of those I have seen have a GOTCHA day thrown in. So retail and the farmer is purposely blind behind the big guys until Feb.22. All I can say is this is stupid, and watch out for the GOTCHA.
Strength across the grain market Friday. Oats closed up 6 and showed they aren't done yet. Corn was good for 1 3/4 to 378 1/4, working on rebuilding Thursdays loss. 1065 rice was a 4 cent gain, but spread roll was again the feature. Beans close 2 1/2 higher, 917 3/4, but that is a deceptive close as we had a range of 931-917, so we basically settled on the low, and my radar is up. Wheat was up 7 3/4 to 524 1/4. Dow futures ended up 20 points to 24,996 but that is 150 off the highs. Glad we held all of Wednesdays gains. Bonds gave up 24 tics to 145.30. I have thought 8 ways to Sunday on how to address the governments release of numbers after the shutdown, and there just isn't a way to sugar coat it. Commitments will be released on Tuesday and Friday each week, but in arrears, until caught up. Exports will be released weekly but in arrears until the catchup on Feb. 22. But somehow they have all the data to release WASDE on Feb. 8. This is how they teach you about simulated trading in low level ag marketing classes, like you get a weeks data each day, so you can trade 40 weeks in 40 days. And every one of those I have seen have a GOTCHA day thrown in. So retail and the farmer is purposely blind behind the big guys until Feb.22. All I can say is this is stupid, and watch out for the GOTCHA.
1/31
End of the cold snap with nothing positive coming out of China, and disappointment that export sales will be in arrears thru Feb. 22. That is frankly unacceptable. How can we have current numbers for WASDE on Feb. 8 but the export sales us commoners look to weekly won't be current until the 22nd? So every Thursday morning we outsiders will get a glimpse of severely outdated news to trade. Corn off 4 3/4 to 376 1/2 with some new selling, but no follow thru. Rice roll moves up a notch as futures drop 2 cents, 1061. Beans down 5 3/4 to 915 1/4, but meal seemed to like to hold 310. Wheat churn trade for 1/4 off close, 516 1/2. Dow futures looked lower but held, coming back to close 8 points higher, 24,976. Bonds gained a full point, or 32 tics, to 146.22, as the financial boys are either moving more aggressively into quality, or just the tail of the train is catching on that the FED is done. Puzzling and I'm thinking maybe a global safety move from here. Reality is we still pay better than most anywhere in the world for paper, and we are probably the most secure at the same time. Interest is a tax when you are paying it, and if you are a US citizen, you are paying.
End of the cold snap with nothing positive coming out of China, and disappointment that export sales will be in arrears thru Feb. 22. That is frankly unacceptable. How can we have current numbers for WASDE on Feb. 8 but the export sales us commoners look to weekly won't be current until the 22nd? So every Thursday morning we outsiders will get a glimpse of severely outdated news to trade. Corn off 4 3/4 to 376 1/2 with some new selling, but no follow thru. Rice roll moves up a notch as futures drop 2 cents, 1061. Beans down 5 3/4 to 915 1/4, but meal seemed to like to hold 310. Wheat churn trade for 1/4 off close, 516 1/2. Dow futures looked lower but held, coming back to close 8 points higher, 24,976. Bonds gained a full point, or 32 tics, to 146.22, as the financial boys are either moving more aggressively into quality, or just the tail of the train is catching on that the FED is done. Puzzling and I'm thinking maybe a global safety move from here. Reality is we still pay better than most anywhere in the world for paper, and we are probably the most secure at the same time. Interest is a tax when you are paying it, and if you are a US citizen, you are paying.
1/30
Export sales will be out tomorrow morning, and although most are looking for bean numbers, I want to see the corn. Solid river bids don't come from a quiet port. Corn up 4 cents to 381 1/4. Rice bear hits the market for 9 1/2, close at 1063. Seems stuck awaiting an outside force. Beans up a couple cents to 921. Wheat gain of 3 1/2 to 516 3/4, and I have to believe the winter kill stories might actually be real with this big of a swath of cold. Dow futures got a sweet bite of apple earnings to boost 415 higher, 24,968. Bonds up a tic to 145.22.
Export sales will be out tomorrow morning, and although most are looking for bean numbers, I want to see the corn. Solid river bids don't come from a quiet port. Corn up 4 cents to 381 1/4. Rice bear hits the market for 9 1/2, close at 1063. Seems stuck awaiting an outside force. Beans up a couple cents to 921. Wheat gain of 3 1/2 to 516 3/4, and I have to believe the winter kill stories might actually be real with this big of a swath of cold. Dow futures got a sweet bite of apple earnings to boost 415 higher, 24,968. Bonds up a tic to 145.22.
1/29
Mighty cold out there. Corn off 2 1/2 to 377 1/4 with 22k new short open interest, so the spec shorts are looking to make a run again. I don't think they can push it down too far. Rice in a nothing day up 1/2 cent to 1072 1/2, other than spread roll, both in futures and 72 options, march to may. Beans off 4 1/4 to 919 and it sure did feel a lot worse than that. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 513 1/4 and back down to an area of support. Dow futures churn but closes 80 higher, 24,553. Bonds gain 18 tics to 145.21.
Mighty cold out there. Corn off 2 1/2 to 377 1/4 with 22k new short open interest, so the spec shorts are looking to make a run again. I don't think they can push it down too far. Rice in a nothing day up 1/2 cent to 1072 1/2, other than spread roll, both in futures and 72 options, march to may. Beans off 4 1/4 to 919 and it sure did feel a lot worse than that. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 513 1/4 and back down to an area of support. Dow futures churn but closes 80 higher, 24,553. Bonds gain 18 tics to 145.21.
1/28
Corn off 1/2 in a dead trade. Oats lose a nickel. Rice up a nickel to 1072 with some selling above, but march options calls nearing 2000 and a potential Venezuela leadership change. Another 430 vs cash (that's a couple million bushels of business quietly getting done, folks) that took open interest down to 6900. Beans off a couple cents rejecting the early push down, 923 1/4. Wheat stumbles 1 1/4 lower on nothing trade, 518 3/4. Dow futures churn 223 lower with poor earnings out of CAT and Nvidia,, 24,473. Bonds took the day off, 145.03, unchanged.
Corn off 1/2 in a dead trade. Oats lose a nickel. Rice up a nickel to 1072 with some selling above, but march options calls nearing 2000 and a potential Venezuela leadership change. Another 430 vs cash (that's a couple million bushels of business quietly getting done, folks) that took open interest down to 6900. Beans off a couple cents rejecting the early push down, 923 1/4. Wheat stumbles 1 1/4 lower on nothing trade, 518 3/4. Dow futures churn 223 lower with poor earnings out of CAT and Nvidia,, 24,473. Bonds took the day off, 145.03, unchanged.
1/25
Corn bounces for 3 1/4 cents Friday, 380 1/4, with a declining open interest, as the spec short unwinds this weeks selling folly. Rice off 1/2 cent to 1067 in quiet trade and a declining open interest as well. With OI down to 7370, wondering how much will roll and how much is just leaving the dance entirely. This does make the market more susceptible to exaggerated swings, in the face of what has been a dull, controlled trade. All the markets will be jumpy next week as the government numbers play re-open catch up and business only the commercials know now get to see the light of day. Don't forget my silent hand. Beans up 9 1/4 to 925 1/4, and just below recent highs. Wheat closes 520, minus 1 1/2. Dow was firm all day and gained 238 at the end to settle 24,696, which allowed for a 22 tic drop in bonds, 145.03. The news is saying this shutdown agreement is a win for Pelosi, but a deal maker like our president doesn't cut a deal without some form of sweetener for the effort. Stay tuned.
Corn bounces for 3 1/4 cents Friday, 380 1/4, with a declining open interest, as the spec short unwinds this weeks selling folly. Rice off 1/2 cent to 1067 in quiet trade and a declining open interest as well. With OI down to 7370, wondering how much will roll and how much is just leaving the dance entirely. This does make the market more susceptible to exaggerated swings, in the face of what has been a dull, controlled trade. All the markets will be jumpy next week as the government numbers play re-open catch up and business only the commercials know now get to see the light of day. Don't forget my silent hand. Beans up 9 1/4 to 925 1/4, and just below recent highs. Wheat closes 520, minus 1 1/2. Dow was firm all day and gained 238 at the end to settle 24,696, which allowed for a 22 tic drop in bonds, 145.03. The news is saying this shutdown agreement is a win for Pelosi, but a deal maker like our president doesn't cut a deal without some form of sweetener for the effort. Stay tuned.
1/24
377 corn off 1 3/4 as the chart boys are going to make a small push down, but I just don't see much downside. Rice gives back most of yesterdays gain, 1067 1/2, minus 8 1/2. Lots of cash basis talk, but no confirmed business yet. Venezuela and Cuba both in the news, and they both sure would like some food aid. Another possible win-win for our President. Meal steady, firm, and beans up a penny to 916. Silent hand under beans just won't go away. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 521 1/2, giving up yesterday as well. Nothing more. Dow futures got a little more churn and ended off 93 points, 24,458. Bonds close 145.25, up 26 tics, and this concerns me greatly, as to how the global players are worried about return of capital vs return on capital.
377 corn off 1 3/4 as the chart boys are going to make a small push down, but I just don't see much downside. Rice gives back most of yesterdays gain, 1067 1/2, minus 8 1/2. Lots of cash basis talk, but no confirmed business yet. Venezuela and Cuba both in the news, and they both sure would like some food aid. Another possible win-win for our President. Meal steady, firm, and beans up a penny to 916. Silent hand under beans just won't go away. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 521 1/2, giving up yesterday as well. Nothing more. Dow futures got a little more churn and ended off 93 points, 24,458. Bonds close 145.25, up 26 tics, and this concerns me greatly, as to how the global players are worried about return of capital vs return on capital.
1/23
Markets held pretty well with no real news, but boats are being loaded and shipped, and that's the story at the end of the day. Corn closes off a 1/4 cent, 378 3/4. Rice up another 11 and starting to run into more resistance from cash, 1076. Another 135 VS cash, so business is being done. Beans get back 5 3/4 to 915. Wheat following overseas prices higher, 526 for a 4 3/4 gain. Dow futures had a tittle more churn but closed up 161 to 24,551. Bonds off 14 tics to 144.31.
Markets held pretty well with no real news, but boats are being loaded and shipped, and that's the story at the end of the day. Corn closes off a 1/4 cent, 378 3/4. Rice up another 11 and starting to run into more resistance from cash, 1076. Another 135 VS cash, so business is being done. Beans get back 5 3/4 to 915. Wheat following overseas prices higher, 526 for a 4 3/4 gain. Dow futures had a tittle more churn but closed up 161 to 24,551. Bonds off 14 tics to 144.31.
1/22
White house rolled out the bad cop part of the equation on china, Lighthizer, and President Trump also said China has to step up the terms offer, and that's all it took for the computers to push down. Corn off 2 3/4 to 379. Beans drop 9 1/4 to 909 1/4. Rice up 2 1/2 to settle 1065, and wheat gains 3 1/2 on China sales rumors, 521 1/4. Dow futures get hit 297 points, 24,390. Bonds march up in lockstep, 145.13.
White house rolled out the bad cop part of the equation on china, Lighthizer, and President Trump also said China has to step up the terms offer, and that's all it took for the computers to push down. Corn off 2 3/4 to 379. Beans drop 9 1/4 to 909 1/4. Rice up 2 1/2 to settle 1065, and wheat gains 3 1/2 on China sales rumors, 521 1/4. Dow futures get hit 297 points, 24,390. Bonds march up in lockstep, 145.13.
1/18
Friday trade holds the gains and adds to most. Corn up 1 3/4 more to 381 3/4 as oats near $3 again and spreads inverted. Rice pops 12 1/2 to 1062 1/2. These 10-20 cent trading ranges are the deck being reshuffled, patiently. Beans up another 9 cents to 916 3/4 and new crop over 950 without much resistance. Wheat holds steady, 517 3/4. Dow futures rip for 366 points, 24,687, and If the china stories of ending the trade imbalance carry weight, all these moves are justified and more. Bonds drop 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 144.17.
Friday trade holds the gains and adds to most. Corn up 1 3/4 more to 381 3/4 as oats near $3 again and spreads inverted. Rice pops 12 1/2 to 1062 1/2. These 10-20 cent trading ranges are the deck being reshuffled, patiently. Beans up another 9 cents to 916 3/4 and new crop over 950 without much resistance. Wheat holds steady, 517 3/4. Dow futures rip for 366 points, 24,687, and If the china stories of ending the trade imbalance carry weight, all these moves are justified and more. Bonds drop 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 144.17.
1/17
China stories the lead, with corn up 6 cents to 380 on short covering. Rice 15 off the highs, but still a 3 1/2 cent positive day, 1050. Cash guys are trying to talk the market down, but trade isn't biting. How may of you have heard that the cash bid is going to back up, followed by a cold call to lock in some new crop basis, this early in the year? Makes a guy stop to think, or at least it should. Beans pop 13 1/4 to 907 3/4 with new crop knocking on 950 again. Wheat gains 5 1/4 and the Russian news is back and forth but consensus is gaining that at some point soon they will reduce exports. Dow futures peeked lower but the bears couldn't get any traction, and we rallied to 24,321, plus 170. Backwards story for the bonds as the look up didn't work and we closed 5 lower, 145.01.
China stories the lead, with corn up 6 cents to 380 on short covering. Rice 15 off the highs, but still a 3 1/2 cent positive day, 1050. Cash guys are trying to talk the market down, but trade isn't biting. How may of you have heard that the cash bid is going to back up, followed by a cold call to lock in some new crop basis, this early in the year? Makes a guy stop to think, or at least it should. Beans pop 13 1/4 to 907 3/4 with new crop knocking on 950 again. Wheat gains 5 1/4 and the Russian news is back and forth but consensus is gaining that at some point soon they will reduce exports. Dow futures peeked lower but the bears couldn't get any traction, and we rallied to 24,321, plus 170. Backwards story for the bonds as the look up didn't work and we closed 5 lower, 145.01.
1/16
Grain bounce with corn showing the best resolve, as expected now and for the foreseeable future. 374, plus 2 3/4. Oats bounce 3 cents. Rice up 8 1/2 to 1046 1/2. 349 came across on vs cash. That's not a small ball trade by any means. Meal in a quiet trade but firm, and beans pick up 1 1/4 to 894 1/2. Wheat closes 1 1/2 higher, 512 1/2. Dow futures put in another solid day, gaining 167 to close 24,151. Bonds leak 7 tics to 145.06.
Grain bounce with corn showing the best resolve, as expected now and for the foreseeable future. 374, plus 2 3/4. Oats bounce 3 cents. Rice up 8 1/2 to 1046 1/2. 349 came across on vs cash. That's not a small ball trade by any means. Meal in a quiet trade but firm, and beans pick up 1 1/4 to 894 1/2. Wheat closes 1 1/2 higher, 512 1/2. Dow futures put in another solid day, gaining 167 to close 24,151. Bonds leak 7 tics to 145.06.
1/15
Ugly grain day, with no news is bad news, and trade is tired of waiting on hopes of a deal, not to mention we are attracting the trend sellers as we roll softer. Corn off 7 1/4 to 371 1/4. Oats took a solid hit as well. The easy money for the corn shorts is about done IMHO as we should be attracting end users not far from here. Rice off another 20 1/2 to 1038. Was afraid of the air under the market when the short cover got done, and now we are testing the resolve of our newest spec long. Beans close 893 1/4, down 10 1/4 with meal weaker again. I think the market was expecting something more positive out of the president Monday than the wall. I know I was. Dow futures up 117 to 23,984, and bonds were a scratch, 145.13.
Ugly grain day, with no news is bad news, and trade is tired of waiting on hopes of a deal, not to mention we are attracting the trend sellers as we roll softer. Corn off 7 1/4 to 371 1/4. Oats took a solid hit as well. The easy money for the corn shorts is about done IMHO as we should be attracting end users not far from here. Rice off another 20 1/2 to 1038. Was afraid of the air under the market when the short cover got done, and now we are testing the resolve of our newest spec long. Beans close 893 1/4, down 10 1/4 with meal weaker again. I think the market was expecting something more positive out of the president Monday than the wall. I know I was. Dow futures up 117 to 23,984, and bonds were a scratch, 145.13.
1/14
This grain bull needs fed. Corn up 1/4 to 378 1/2, but at the lower area of the days range. Rice short seems to be stepping back on covers as expected, and the air below was good for a 18 1/2 cent drop, 1058 1/2. Meal off nearly 3 bucks, so beans drift 6 1/2 lower, 903 1/2. Wheat off 5 1/4 to 514 1/4. To be honest, grains held up pretty well for a nothing day, and front months oats settles higher again, $3 close. Dow looks lower again today, but settles down only 83 points, 23,867. Bonds up early on the dow weakness, but drift 11 tics lower to end the day at 145.13
This grain bull needs fed. Corn up 1/4 to 378 1/2, but at the lower area of the days range. Rice short seems to be stepping back on covers as expected, and the air below was good for a 18 1/2 cent drop, 1058 1/2. Meal off nearly 3 bucks, so beans drift 6 1/2 lower, 903 1/2. Wheat off 5 1/4 to 514 1/4. To be honest, grains held up pretty well for a nothing day, and front months oats settles higher again, $3 close. Dow looks lower again today, but settles down only 83 points, 23,867. Bonds up early on the dow weakness, but drift 11 tics lower to end the day at 145.13
1/11
No UDSA reports and the world didn't end. I think moving forward that export sales and shipments need to be put on a real time public reporting form. Lets say automatically updated at the end of the day, and be done with it. Corn up 2 cents to end the week 378 1/4. Oats pop 6 and are back over 290 with inverted spreads. Rice short seems to have covered down to a comfortable level for now, which he has done before and then sat back and watched. 1077, minus 8. Beans up 3 1/2 to 910 1/4, and that is with meal setting back another couple bucks. SA weather is an ongoing concern, and forecasters are now cutting total production below last year, and with a downward bias. Wheat up 5 3/4 to 519 1/2 and we are fast approaching time when US exports are expected to capture more of the global market. Dow futures looked lower, but rallied back to settle 23,950, off 3. Bonds bounced 15 tics to 145.24.
No UDSA reports and the world didn't end. I think moving forward that export sales and shipments need to be put on a real time public reporting form. Lets say automatically updated at the end of the day, and be done with it. Corn up 2 cents to end the week 378 1/4. Oats pop 6 and are back over 290 with inverted spreads. Rice short seems to have covered down to a comfortable level for now, which he has done before and then sat back and watched. 1077, minus 8. Beans up 3 1/2 to 910 1/4, and that is with meal setting back another couple bucks. SA weather is an ongoing concern, and forecasters are now cutting total production below last year, and with a downward bias. Wheat up 5 3/4 to 519 1/2 and we are fast approaching time when US exports are expected to capture more of the global market. Dow futures looked lower, but rallied back to settle 23,950, off 3. Bonds bounced 15 tics to 145.24.
1/10
Trade is tiring of the China wait and see game, and frankly, no news is rarely good news at this point. Corn off 5 3/4 to 376 1/4 in an overdone sell off to me. Rice up another 4 1/2 with short covering to 1085. Beans held my support, but just barely, 17 1/4 lower, 906 3/4. Meal has put on the show as expected in this rally, but gave up over 6 bucks today. Do expect a grain bounce for tomorrow, and tomorrow should sew up the fund rebalance, so watch for silly business on the close. Wheat off 6 1/4 to 513 3/4. Dow futures continue the rally trying to shake off the holiday jitters and gaining 123 to 23,953, but definitely more back and forth to the trade. Bonds started firm but leaked all day to 145.09, minus 9 tics.
Trade is tiring of the China wait and see game, and frankly, no news is rarely good news at this point. Corn off 5 3/4 to 376 1/4 in an overdone sell off to me. Rice up another 4 1/2 with short covering to 1085. Beans held my support, but just barely, 17 1/4 lower, 906 3/4. Meal has put on the show as expected in this rally, but gave up over 6 bucks today. Do expect a grain bounce for tomorrow, and tomorrow should sew up the fund rebalance, so watch for silly business on the close. Wheat off 6 1/4 to 513 3/4. Dow futures continue the rally trying to shake off the holiday jitters and gaining 123 to 23,953, but definitely more back and forth to the trade. Bonds started firm but leaked all day to 145.09, minus 9 tics.
1/09
Corn regains 2 to 382. Rice up 6 but running into more selling/pricing, 1080 1/2. Beans gain 5 1/2 to 924, but still cant take out the old high. 520 wheat is good for 2 1/4 cent gain, bot not any more. Dow up 87 points in a much more controlled market, 23,830. Bonds drop another 15 tics to 145.18. Had a scary thought last night that the holiday financial shenanigans were a dry run for the Brexit head butting that everyone knows is probably coming. Economic common sense doesn't have to make sense in a socialists mind, and we are approaching the division of 2 different economic theories.
Corn regains 2 to 382. Rice up 6 but running into more selling/pricing, 1080 1/2. Beans gain 5 1/2 to 924, but still cant take out the old high. 520 wheat is good for 2 1/4 cent gain, bot not any more. Dow up 87 points in a much more controlled market, 23,830. Bonds drop another 15 tics to 145.18. Had a scary thought last night that the holiday financial shenanigans were a dry run for the Brexit head butting that everyone knows is probably coming. Economic common sense doesn't have to make sense in a socialists mind, and we are approaching the division of 2 different economic theories.
1/08
Corn sets back 2 1/4 to 380 after peeking at 385 early. Need to pay attention to tomorrows trade if there are any near term pricing requirements. Beans off 5 3/4 as well, 918 1/2, and at the higher end of recent pricing, with country basis giving up a little in the recent rally. Wheat gains a penny, 517 3/4. Rice short cover by the looks of it for now, 1074 1/2, eight higher. Dow continues to stabilize as the big boys are back in town and putting a bit of a muzzle on the algo computer jockeys. 23,743 for a 231 point gain. Bonds off 15 tics to 146.01 and act like we have set the near term top.
Corn sets back 2 1/4 to 380 after peeking at 385 early. Need to pay attention to tomorrows trade if there are any near term pricing requirements. Beans off 5 3/4 as well, 918 1/2, and at the higher end of recent pricing, with country basis giving up a little in the recent rally. Wheat gains a penny, 517 3/4. Rice short cover by the looks of it for now, 1074 1/2, eight higher. Dow continues to stabilize as the big boys are back in town and putting a bit of a muzzle on the algo computer jockeys. 23,743 for a 231 point gain. Bonds off 15 tics to 146.01 and act like we have set the near term top.
1/04
SA weather, private forecasters lowering SA production, and China rumors/hopes all act as fuel for grain strength to end the week. More chatter about beans still in the field in January, and some awful quality in the bin in areas has people finally thinking we are going to have to eventually pull down carry over. My base knows my numbers, and it isn't north of 900 by a ways. Of course that might not show its official hand for the better part of the year, but the silent hand under this market must believe it. Beans close 921 1/2 for 8 3/4 gain, with meal up another couple bucks to knock on the $320 door. Corn up 3 1/4 to 383, and wheat closes 517, plus 3 1/4. Rice was pretty quiet with some interesting orders, not trades, showing. Never could get verification on my internal query of that one. 1048, up 3 1/2. The WASDE numbers for next week have been postponed, so fund rebalance will fuel much of next week's trade. Dow futures roulette landed firmly on black Friday for a 736 point gain, 23,395. Bonds pretty much gave back all of Thursday, off a point and 25 tics, 146.28. Talking heads all day Friday were discussing what we declared on 11/16, that the fed was done hiking rates after December, and we have a new model moving forward for interest rates, more data sensitive. Took the over a month and a half, but Bravo.
SA weather, private forecasters lowering SA production, and China rumors/hopes all act as fuel for grain strength to end the week. More chatter about beans still in the field in January, and some awful quality in the bin in areas has people finally thinking we are going to have to eventually pull down carry over. My base knows my numbers, and it isn't north of 900 by a ways. Of course that might not show its official hand for the better part of the year, but the silent hand under this market must believe it. Beans close 921 1/2 for 8 3/4 gain, with meal up another couple bucks to knock on the $320 door. Corn up 3 1/4 to 383, and wheat closes 517, plus 3 1/4. Rice was pretty quiet with some interesting orders, not trades, showing. Never could get verification on my internal query of that one. 1048, up 3 1/2. The WASDE numbers for next week have been postponed, so fund rebalance will fuel much of next week's trade. Dow futures roulette landed firmly on black Friday for a 736 point gain, 23,395. Bonds pretty much gave back all of Thursday, off a point and 25 tics, 146.28. Talking heads all day Friday were discussing what we declared on 11/16, that the fed was done hiking rates after December, and we have a new model moving forward for interest rates, more data sensitive. Took the over a month and a half, but Bravo.
1/03
Grains found strength on more weather stories from S. A. and technical buying. Corn up 4 to 379 3/4. Beans up another 5 3/4 to 912 3/4. Wheat went along for the ride, 513 3/4, for a 7 cent gain. Rice spreads were sold at basically full carry today for new deliveries out of Mcgehee, and if someone can explain the reasoning for that one, I'm all ears. Still had a 9 1/2 cent rally to 1044 1/2. Dow never could get anything going and apple reporting weaker sales helped drive futures down 666 to 22,659. Surprisingly, I thought it would get worse, and we are still in a range, Abet a convoluted, computer driven, confidence killing range. Bond futures out the top to 148.21 for another point and 29 tic rally as flight to quality continues.
Grains found strength on more weather stories from S. A. and technical buying. Corn up 4 to 379 3/4. Beans up another 5 3/4 to 912 3/4. Wheat went along for the ride, 513 3/4, for a 7 cent gain. Rice spreads were sold at basically full carry today for new deliveries out of Mcgehee, and if someone can explain the reasoning for that one, I'm all ears. Still had a 9 1/2 cent rally to 1044 1/2. Dow never could get anything going and apple reporting weaker sales helped drive futures down 666 to 22,659. Surprisingly, I thought it would get worse, and we are still in a range, Abet a convoluted, computer driven, confidence killing range. Bond futures out the top to 148.21 for another point and 29 tic rally as flight to quality continues.
1/2
Happy New Year. Quiet corn day, 375 3/4, plus 3/4. Wheat gets back 3 1/2 cents for a 506 3/4 settle. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1035. Weather stories in SA stirring the beans, with private forecasters cutting yield. I'd say its a bit early for that, but they are working from such rosy early predictions, its viable. 907, up 12 and meal gaining 5 bucks as well. Dow put in another big churn down but recovered to 57 higher, 23,325. Lots of air on both sides of this one, and with the currency shenanigans of yesterday, I'd stay out of the way and let the elephants dance. Bonds gain another 24 to 146.24, and are now above what I consider a high price. Bonds are the smart money in the room, and it will be interesting to watch if there is another leg up from here.
Happy New Year. Quiet corn day, 375 3/4, plus 3/4. Wheat gets back 3 1/2 cents for a 506 3/4 settle. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1035. Weather stories in SA stirring the beans, with private forecasters cutting yield. I'd say its a bit early for that, but they are working from such rosy early predictions, its viable. 907, up 12 and meal gaining 5 bucks as well. Dow put in another big churn down but recovered to 57 higher, 23,325. Lots of air on both sides of this one, and with the currency shenanigans of yesterday, I'd stay out of the way and let the elephants dance. Bonds gain another 24 to 146.24, and are now above what I consider a high price. Bonds are the smart money in the room, and it will be interesting to watch if there is another leg up from here.
12/31
Year End Monday trade was really pretty benign, with nothing of substance grabbing me as a mark. Corn off 1/2 to 375, and wheat down 8 1/2 with more talk of fund rebalance selling, 503 1/4. Switching to March futures for rice and beans, with beans off 1/2 cent, 895, and rice gaining 5 1/2 to 1036 1/2. Meal was soft Monday, so worth monitoring. I believe there is a fear in all the grains of a southern border total shut down looming, but I just cant swallow it being any long term possibility. Maybe a day or two to get a point across, but not much more. Dow futures up 233 to end the year at, 23,268, and I can make an easy case for 1500 more upside points, but one tweet could cost you a thousand. That's a high price for a coin flip, and face it, the day to day dow trade is currently in casino mode. Bonds up another 15 tics to 146 even. Either we are rolling into a global downturn, or the bonds are a screaming sell.
Year End Monday trade was really pretty benign, with nothing of substance grabbing me as a mark. Corn off 1/2 to 375, and wheat down 8 1/2 with more talk of fund rebalance selling, 503 1/4. Switching to March futures for rice and beans, with beans off 1/2 cent, 895, and rice gaining 5 1/2 to 1036 1/2. Meal was soft Monday, so worth monitoring. I believe there is a fear in all the grains of a southern border total shut down looming, but I just cant swallow it being any long term possibility. Maybe a day or two to get a point across, but not much more. Dow futures up 233 to end the year at, 23,268, and I can make an easy case for 1500 more upside points, but one tweet could cost you a thousand. That's a high price for a coin flip, and face it, the day to day dow trade is currently in casino mode. Bonds up another 15 tics to 146 even. Either we are rolling into a global downturn, or the bonds are a screaming sell.
12/28
Beans were the feature Friday, lead by a $5 gain in meal, to 882 3/4, plus 13 3/4. Wheat up a penny to 511 1/2. Corn up a penny as well, 375 1/2. Rice dropped 7 in Jan to 1005 1/2, but the final day of spread roll took 15 cents out of Jan, so march actually was 8 higher. Looks like the commercials have come to an agreement on supply for the time being, so lets get this thing back to carry. 660 deliveries puts us current as East Side gives up receipts at nearly carry to ADM. No reason to own storage if someone else will do it for you. Any way around it, the fireworks are over in January, unless ADM pukes to the bankers. Even that wouldn't be fireworks, just a drag on price. Bonds peeked higher and lower, but settle unchanged, 145.17. Dow futures give up 118 to 23,035 in a "quiet"400 point day. Monday is yearend, and my guess is there are some players who will definitely want to mark the Y E books if they get a chance, so be careful not to get too caught up in the window dressing.
Beans were the feature Friday, lead by a $5 gain in meal, to 882 3/4, plus 13 3/4. Wheat up a penny to 511 1/2. Corn up a penny as well, 375 1/2. Rice dropped 7 in Jan to 1005 1/2, but the final day of spread roll took 15 cents out of Jan, so march actually was 8 higher. Looks like the commercials have come to an agreement on supply for the time being, so lets get this thing back to carry. 660 deliveries puts us current as East Side gives up receipts at nearly carry to ADM. No reason to own storage if someone else will do it for you. Any way around it, the fireworks are over in January, unless ADM pukes to the bankers. Even that wouldn't be fireworks, just a drag on price. Bonds peeked higher and lower, but settle unchanged, 145.17. Dow futures give up 118 to 23,035 in a "quiet"400 point day. Monday is yearend, and my guess is there are some players who will definitely want to mark the Y E books if they get a chance, so be careful not to get too caught up in the window dressing.
12/27
Dow futures saw another near 1000 point range, but settled 255 higher, 23,153. Bonds had a surprising rally of 25 more tics to 145.17. I would think if the stocks are back on solid ground the bonds would roll over, but so far that's not the case. Don't fall in love with an equity position. Corn picked up 1 1/4 to 374 1/2. while beans slipped a penny to 869 preparing for first intentions tomorrow. Rice intentions as well, with an 18 1/2 cent break to 1012 1/2, and the spread seeming to have peaked as well. Wheat trying to set a floor, 510 1/2, plus 1/2.
Dow futures saw another near 1000 point range, but settled 255 higher, 23,153. Bonds had a surprising rally of 25 more tics to 145.17. I would think if the stocks are back on solid ground the bonds would roll over, but so far that's not the case. Don't fall in love with an equity position. Corn picked up 1 1/4 to 374 1/2. while beans slipped a penny to 869 preparing for first intentions tomorrow. Rice intentions as well, with an 18 1/2 cent break to 1012 1/2, and the spread seeming to have peaked as well. Wheat trying to set a floor, 510 1/2, plus 1/2.
12/26
Dow futures blow out the top for a 1198 point gain. 22.898, and I would not try to pick a top. There is air for 1500 points more easy if the computers are done with the downward churn and still want to make their long position look good for the new year mark. Bonds off 22 tics, 144.24. That's not inflation or stagflation, or a super strong economy of any sort priced in there. Corn off 4 1/2 and getting to the lower end of where I would expect, but year end can lead to some silly stuff. 373 1/4. Beans in the same boat, off 14 to 870. Wheat follows along for a 6 1/2 cent loss, 510. Rice spread roll continues, and I do believe the large spec short money is selling into this break with an already substantial short position, 1031, minus 11. Margin clerks will be mostly done pushing out the longs by Fridays close, in all the grains, Then the bear will need some new bullets, or become the hunted.
Dow futures blow out the top for a 1198 point gain. 22.898, and I would not try to pick a top. There is air for 1500 points more easy if the computers are done with the downward churn and still want to make their long position look good for the new year mark. Bonds off 22 tics, 144.24. That's not inflation or stagflation, or a super strong economy of any sort priced in there. Corn off 4 1/2 and getting to the lower end of where I would expect, but year end can lead to some silly stuff. 373 1/4. Beans in the same boat, off 14 to 870. Wheat follows along for a 6 1/2 cent loss, 510. Rice spread roll continues, and I do believe the large spec short money is selling into this break with an already substantial short position, 1031, minus 11. Margin clerks will be mostly done pushing out the longs by Fridays close, in all the grains, Then the bear will need some new bullets, or become the hunted.
12/24
Hope everyone had a merry Christmas. Monday was a shortened, but bloody day in the dow, dropping 707 to settle 21,700. But it was orderly, I guess. Retail fleece continues. Bonds up 20 to 145.14. Beans off 3/4 to 884, while the same story plays out in corn, off 3/4 to 377 3/4. Wheat up 2 1/2 to 516 1/2. Rice has some more long liquidation to go with the spread roll, and we drop 13 cents to 1042. A few short weeks ago I was looking for some big money allocation to our grain commodity space in the new year, but with this wholesale financial rout, I'm not so sure anymore.
Hope everyone had a merry Christmas. Monday was a shortened, but bloody day in the dow, dropping 707 to settle 21,700. But it was orderly, I guess. Retail fleece continues. Bonds up 20 to 145.14. Beans off 3/4 to 884, while the same story plays out in corn, off 3/4 to 377 3/4. Wheat up 2 1/2 to 516 1/2. Rice has some more long liquidation to go with the spread roll, and we drop 13 cents to 1042. A few short weeks ago I was looking for some big money allocation to our grain commodity space in the new year, but with this wholesale financial rout, I'm not so sure anymore.
12/21
Friday trade saw corn bounce back 3 1/4 cents to recover 1/2 of Thursdays loss, 378 1/2. Wheat off 9 1/2 to 514, but trade seemed more of year end moves and quiet cash to me.. Would not chase that break. Beans saw 20K of flat price Jan liquidation selling with wind down early for the holiday break, 884 3/4, minus 8 3/4. Rice trade subdued with smaller than usual spread roll, but Jan futures down to 2K of O. I. , so it will be interesting to see what new registrations we get. 1055, plus 2 1/2. Spread seems content to accept this 9-12 area as tight enough, at least for now. Dow churn for nearly 900 points on Friday, with a closing loss of 590 points, 22407. As long as its an orderly public fleecing, I guess its OK. We are seeing the other edge of the double edged sword of ETF investing, and its not the pretty side that has been advertised. Bonds flat on the day at 144.26, and under a point total range in a 900 point dow trade. If that doesn't scream out that this is a manufactured churn/price reset, nothing does.
Friday trade saw corn bounce back 3 1/4 cents to recover 1/2 of Thursdays loss, 378 1/2. Wheat off 9 1/2 to 514, but trade seemed more of year end moves and quiet cash to me.. Would not chase that break. Beans saw 20K of flat price Jan liquidation selling with wind down early for the holiday break, 884 3/4, minus 8 3/4. Rice trade subdued with smaller than usual spread roll, but Jan futures down to 2K of O. I. , so it will be interesting to see what new registrations we get. 1055, plus 2 1/2. Spread seems content to accept this 9-12 area as tight enough, at least for now. Dow churn for nearly 900 points on Friday, with a closing loss of 590 points, 22407. As long as its an orderly public fleecing, I guess its OK. We are seeing the other edge of the double edged sword of ETF investing, and its not the pretty side that has been advertised. Bonds flat on the day at 144.26, and under a point total range in a 900 point dow trade. If that doesn't scream out that this is a manufactured churn/price reset, nothing does.
12/20
Solid export sales to start the morning but selling thru the day in grains, as corn gives up 6 1/2 cents to 375 1/4. Not in love with that action at all for the short term, and oats were soft as well. Same story in the beans, 6 1/2 lower to 893 1/2. Meal traded solid and unchanged. Wheat had the softest sales but already had its break, so we got a penny bounce to 523 1/2. Rice spread roll still the main feature, although we peeked down at my 1040 area and held nicely. 1052 1/2, plus 2 1/2. Dow churn continues, this time for 800 round trip points and a 316 point net loss, 22,997. Bonds traded up to new for move highs, but settled 7 tics lower, 144.26. If the bonds are tired of going up, the dow is near tired of going down.
Solid export sales to start the morning but selling thru the day in grains, as corn gives up 6 1/2 cents to 375 1/4. Not in love with that action at all for the short term, and oats were soft as well. Same story in the beans, 6 1/2 lower to 893 1/2. Meal traded solid and unchanged. Wheat had the softest sales but already had its break, so we got a penny bounce to 523 1/2. Rice spread roll still the main feature, although we peeked down at my 1040 area and held nicely. 1052 1/2, plus 2 1/2. Dow churn continues, this time for 800 round trip points and a 316 point net loss, 22,997. Bonds traded up to new for move highs, but settled 7 tics lower, 144.26. If the bonds are tired of going up, the dow is near tired of going down.
12/19
Grains softer across the board waiting on China business, or any extra new business. Stock market charade continues, today for over 900 points, using a well broadcast fed interest rate move as the torchbearer, if not the truth, to finally settle off another 296, 23.313. Bonds out the up side of range to 145.01 for another point and 5 tic upward flight to quality. Corn off 3 3/4 in a subdued drift lower. DDG and export talk still out there, but people wanting to start seeing more than talk. Beans looking at the lower area of the range, while the computers decide weather they want to try to push for 880, but $9 settle for a 7 3/4 cent loss on the day. Wheat drops 10 1/4 to 522 1/2 just because it can. Don't read too much there yet, the world is getting tighter in wheat. Rice spread roll continues and we drift 3 cents lower, 1050, but with the added bonus of the options player back for some more decent volume. On the surface it looks like a put financed vertical, but I will try to track down what really happened in this woefully opaque, (transparent) market and update if necessary.
Grains softer across the board waiting on China business, or any extra new business. Stock market charade continues, today for over 900 points, using a well broadcast fed interest rate move as the torchbearer, if not the truth, to finally settle off another 296, 23.313. Bonds out the up side of range to 145.01 for another point and 5 tic upward flight to quality. Corn off 3 3/4 in a subdued drift lower. DDG and export talk still out there, but people wanting to start seeing more than talk. Beans looking at the lower area of the range, while the computers decide weather they want to try to push for 880, but $9 settle for a 7 3/4 cent loss on the day. Wheat drops 10 1/4 to 522 1/2 just because it can. Don't read too much there yet, the world is getting tighter in wheat. Rice spread roll continues and we drift 3 cents lower, 1050, but with the added bonus of the options player back for some more decent volume. On the surface it looks like a put financed vertical, but I will try to track down what really happened in this woefully opaque, (transparent) market and update if necessary.
12/18
More business talk with China, but light on the details so far. Corn up 1 1/2 to 385 1/2. Beans gain 3 to 907 3/4. No doubt in my mind that we are doing business with China, but the quantity seems to be covered for now a least. With the second round of bean money being approved for distribution, it is a Merry Christmas for the bean farmer. Wheat slips 2 1/2 on a quiet day, 532 3/4. Rice stronger thru the day, but someone saves bullets for late, 1053, off 2 1/2. More solid volume in the spread roll. Dow was up over 300, but we've got to get in our daily churn, so 76 point lower close, 23,609. Bonds up 21 tics and busting out the top of range by a little, 143.28. Worth watching.
More business talk with China, but light on the details so far. Corn up 1 1/2 to 385 1/2. Beans gain 3 to 907 3/4. No doubt in my mind that we are doing business with China, but the quantity seems to be covered for now a least. With the second round of bean money being approved for distribution, it is a Merry Christmas for the bean farmer. Wheat slips 2 1/2 on a quiet day, 532 3/4. Rice stronger thru the day, but someone saves bullets for late, 1053, off 2 1/2. More solid volume in the spread roll. Dow was up over 300, but we've got to get in our daily churn, so 76 point lower close, 23,609. Bonds up 21 tics and busting out the top of range by a little, 143.28. Worth watching.
12/17
Meal held firm, and the first talks of weather in SA stirred the bean buyers, or at least put the spec seller on his heals. Quiet but solid day for soy, 904 3/4, plus 4 1/4. Pretty much every year we have to kill the crop once at least, and the churn boys love a weather story. Just saying its time to be on tour toes in the grain room, especially after the new year when fresh money gets thrown against the wall to see what sticks. Corn off 3/4 to 384. Wheat snaps back for a 5 1/4 cent gain, 535 1/4. More rice spread roll as we seem to have found an area where the commercial will intervene, or at least relent a squeeze, while futures settle near the lows of the day, 1055 1/2, minus 2. March dow futures off another 443 to 23,685, with the lows 1000 points off Friday highs. At some point this reckless computer churn could lead to financial instability, where main street really pays the price for wall street largesse. And I'm not seeing the protections against these high speed, high frequency systems burning down the house. Being legal doesn't make it right. Bonds up 16 tics, 143.07.
Meal held firm, and the first talks of weather in SA stirred the bean buyers, or at least put the spec seller on his heals. Quiet but solid day for soy, 904 3/4, plus 4 1/4. Pretty much every year we have to kill the crop once at least, and the churn boys love a weather story. Just saying its time to be on tour toes in the grain room, especially after the new year when fresh money gets thrown against the wall to see what sticks. Corn off 3/4 to 384. Wheat snaps back for a 5 1/4 cent gain, 535 1/4. More rice spread roll as we seem to have found an area where the commercial will intervene, or at least relent a squeeze, while futures settle near the lows of the day, 1055 1/2, minus 2. March dow futures off another 443 to 23,685, with the lows 1000 points off Friday highs. At some point this reckless computer churn could lead to financial instability, where main street really pays the price for wall street largesse. And I'm not seeing the protections against these high speed, high frequency systems burning down the house. Being legal doesn't make it right. Bonds up 16 tics, 143.07.
12/14
Soft trade again Friday in the beans, and that is with big sales to China. Chart is turning over in Beans as well, so if we don't get some more news soon, looks like the money boys might try for a peek down below. 900 1/2, off 6 1/2. Meal still holding in, but I'd watch meal for any weakness. Wheat gives back 6 to 530. Corn held firm, gaining 1/2 to 384 3/4, and that was with oats fading 6 cents. Rice gets some positive news out of Iraq, for 12 1/2 cents pop to 1057 1/2. Spread is curiously strong in the face of what everyone in the commercial side swears is a big crop. Dow churn continues, this time to the down side for 458 points, 24,113. Bonds up 8 tics to 143.09. Will switch financials to March starting Monday.
Soft trade again Friday in the beans, and that is with big sales to China. Chart is turning over in Beans as well, so if we don't get some more news soon, looks like the money boys might try for a peek down below. 900 1/2, off 6 1/2. Meal still holding in, but I'd watch meal for any weakness. Wheat gives back 6 to 530. Corn held firm, gaining 1/2 to 384 3/4, and that was with oats fading 6 cents. Rice gets some positive news out of Iraq, for 12 1/2 cents pop to 1057 1/2. Spread is curiously strong in the face of what everyone in the commercial side swears is a big crop. Dow churn continues, this time to the down side for 458 points, 24,113. Bonds up 8 tics to 143.09. Will switch financials to March starting Monday.
12/13
Another 1.1 m ton of beans to China, but we are in a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade. Beans close off 13 cents, 907, but still in the range. March meal did give up 4 bucks. Quiet corn off a penny, 384 1/4. Rice roll continues and a dime leak lower on little flat price volume, 1045. Getting close to my first support. Global wheat stories and pricing supporting the wheat, 536, plus 9 1/2. Dow up 5 points in a near 300 point range, which is a comparatively dull day during silly season, 24,571. Bonds slip 8 tics to 143.01.
Another 1.1 m ton of beans to China, but we are in a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade. Beans close off 13 cents, 907, but still in the range. March meal did give up 4 bucks. Quiet corn off a penny, 384 1/4. Rice roll continues and a dime leak lower on little flat price volume, 1045. Getting close to my first support. Global wheat stories and pricing supporting the wheat, 536, plus 9 1/2. Dow up 5 points in a near 300 point range, which is a comparatively dull day during silly season, 24,571. Bonds slip 8 tics to 143.01.
12/12
President Trump touting new bean sales with China, which allowed the markets to pop early, with beans taking out the recent highs, but fading back to a nickel higher, 920. Corn closed up 1/2 cent, 385 1/4. Wheat gained 5 1/2 to 526 1/2. Oats up a couple more to add to its quiet rally. Really a muted response by the market as a whole if the Asian gates are back open, vs. a token gesture that China can use anyway. Rice off 9 1/2 as the spread roll continues and we drift lower on soft real volume and sells. Cant get the farmer to dump 4.75 cash rice to the commercial if the board stays bid now can they? Dow churn continues its broken record, settling up 144 points, 24,566. Bonds give up 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 143.09 as the financials may have set their new churn range as well.
President Trump touting new bean sales with China, which allowed the markets to pop early, with beans taking out the recent highs, but fading back to a nickel higher, 920. Corn closed up 1/2 cent, 385 1/4. Wheat gained 5 1/2 to 526 1/2. Oats up a couple more to add to its quiet rally. Really a muted response by the market as a whole if the Asian gates are back open, vs. a token gesture that China can use anyway. Rice off 9 1/2 as the spread roll continues and we drift lower on soft real volume and sells. Cant get the farmer to dump 4.75 cash rice to the commercial if the board stays bid now can they? Dow churn continues its broken record, settling up 144 points, 24,566. Bonds give up 1/2 point, or 16 tics, to 143.09 as the financials may have set their new churn range as well.
12/11
WASDE was a goose egg, as expected. Wheat C.O. was bumped and that gave room for a 4 1/4 cent break, 521. Corn ethanol grind was off small, which rolled to the bottom of the ledger, but corn still managed a 3/4 cent gain to 384 3/4. I'll argue all year that corn stocks are going to get tight, both domestically and globally. Rice spread roll continues, 1064 1/2, off 2.. Beans close 915, up 5 1/4 as we are still stuck in a range, but itching to pop out. Another big range day in the year end Dow futures churn, but a close only 68 lower, 24,422. Bonds give up 9 tics, 143.25. More rumors of a China bean deal coming down the pipe.
WASDE was a goose egg, as expected. Wheat C.O. was bumped and that gave room for a 4 1/4 cent break, 521. Corn ethanol grind was off small, which rolled to the bottom of the ledger, but corn still managed a 3/4 cent gain to 384 3/4. I'll argue all year that corn stocks are going to get tight, both domestically and globally. Rice spread roll continues, 1064 1/2, off 2.. Beans close 915, up 5 1/4 as we are still stuck in a range, but itching to pop out. Another big range day in the year end Dow futures churn, but a close only 68 lower, 24,422. Bonds give up 9 tics, 143.25. More rumors of a China bean deal coming down the pipe.
12/10
Set up day for a WASDE report tomorrow that isn't expected to be much anyway. Real story falls back to if we get a deal with China. Corn off 1 1/2 cents to 384. Rice spread roll and weakness from Jan long liquidation, 1066 1/2, minus 10 1/2. Beans off 7 to 909 3/4, but not really getting out of any ranges. Wheat gives back 6 to 525 1/4. Dow churn slams lower, but rallies for a 58 point higher close, 24,490. Bonds up 4 tics, 144.02. Tune in tomorrow at 11. The unexpected surprise would be an adjustment lower to production because of late harvest losses.
Set up day for a WASDE report tomorrow that isn't expected to be much anyway. Real story falls back to if we get a deal with China. Corn off 1 1/2 cents to 384. Rice spread roll and weakness from Jan long liquidation, 1066 1/2, minus 10 1/2. Beans off 7 to 909 3/4, but not really getting out of any ranges. Wheat gives back 6 to 525 1/4. Dow churn slams lower, but rallies for a 58 point higher close, 24,490. Bonds up 4 tics, 144.02. Tune in tomorrow at 11. The unexpected surprise would be an adjustment lower to production because of late harvest losses.
12/07
Corn up 2 3/4 to 385 1/2 and the country seems to be willing to pay that for domestic use. Rice down 6 cents and found support at 1077. Beans up 7 1/4 to 916 3/4, but meal didn't want to play along, which kind of held beans down. I still can't identify the silent hand holding beans up, but it sure forces you to respect it. Exports were good across the board, and Egypt in wheat sales lit an easy fuse for a 15 3/4 cent gain, 531 1/4. Financial churn continues because there really isn't anything stopping the computers from playing their silly little games. A patient and disciplined trader benefits, allowing you to buy at great prices and sell at exaggerated prices. I might mention that its easier to say you are a patient and disciplined trader than actually be one. Bonds tried to break, but with dow weakness, rallied a point off the lows to close 5 tics to the good, 143.30. Dow futures gave up 475 points at the end, 24,432. Point of reference, the dow closed the day before thanksgiving at 24,465.. All these violent up and down days since, noise and churn. Can't say we didn't warn you.
Corn up 2 3/4 to 385 1/2 and the country seems to be willing to pay that for domestic use. Rice down 6 cents and found support at 1077. Beans up 7 1/4 to 916 3/4, but meal didn't want to play along, which kind of held beans down. I still can't identify the silent hand holding beans up, but it sure forces you to respect it. Exports were good across the board, and Egypt in wheat sales lit an easy fuse for a 15 3/4 cent gain, 531 1/4. Financial churn continues because there really isn't anything stopping the computers from playing their silly little games. A patient and disciplined trader benefits, allowing you to buy at great prices and sell at exaggerated prices. I might mention that its easier to say you are a patient and disciplined trader than actually be one. Bonds tried to break, but with dow weakness, rallied a point off the lows to close 5 tics to the good, 143.30. Dow futures gave up 475 points at the end, 24,432. Point of reference, the dow closed the day before thanksgiving at 24,465.. All these violent up and down days since, noise and churn. Can't say we didn't warn you.
12/06
Extreme early weakness today in the dow set everyone back on their heels early, with the dow futures off about 800, but as the day wore on the computers figured out there was no one else to fleece, and we rallied back to only 139 lower, 24,907. We better rally soon from here, and I think we can, but there is thin air in both directions and funny money boys loving the holiday churn. Bonds up a full point, or 32 tics for the layman, 143.25, and looking toppy for the first time in a while. Wheat fades 2 1/2 cents to 515 1/2. Beans got beat down early with the dow, but recovered to be down 4 cents, 909 1/2. Rice started firm but sellers showed late to push back to a penny higher, 1083. Corn off 1 1/2 cents, 382 3/4. Delayed export sales in the morning.
Extreme early weakness today in the dow set everyone back on their heels early, with the dow futures off about 800, but as the day wore on the computers figured out there was no one else to fleece, and we rallied back to only 139 lower, 24,907. We better rally soon from here, and I think we can, but there is thin air in both directions and funny money boys loving the holiday churn. Bonds up a full point, or 32 tics for the layman, 143.25, and looking toppy for the first time in a while. Wheat fades 2 1/2 cents to 515 1/2. Beans got beat down early with the dow, but recovered to be down 4 cents, 909 1/2. Rice started firm but sellers showed late to push back to a penny higher, 1083. Corn off 1 1/2 cents, 382 3/4. Delayed export sales in the morning.
12/05
Financial markets closed for President Bush funeral, so dow futures post unchanged at 25,046 while bonds post 142.25. Corn off 1/2 cent in a nothing trade, 384 1/4. Beans up 1 3/4 with a dead meal market, 913 1/2. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 518 because if there is no real news, wheat likes to fade. I was reminded that the rice club is meeting, and when the club is together, its mighty hard to rally rice, and the requisite selling appeared for a 15 1/2 cent loss, 1082.
Financial markets closed for President Bush funeral, so dow futures post unchanged at 25,046 while bonds post 142.25. Corn off 1/2 cent in a nothing trade, 384 1/4. Beans up 1 3/4 with a dead meal market, 913 1/2. Wheat drops 4 1/2 to 518 because if there is no real news, wheat likes to fade. I was reminded that the rice club is meeting, and when the club is together, its mighty hard to rally rice, and the requisite selling appeared for a 15 1/2 cent loss, 1082.
12/04
Most grains settled near their highs, with corn up 2 3/4 to 384 3/4, wheat gaining a penny and a quarter, 522 1/2, and beans close 911 3/4, plus 6. Rice off 1/2 cent, 1097 1/2. Dow got hammered on even a thought that the deal might not go thru, but the reality is the market was a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade.. 25,046 for a 800 point pounding. Bonds rip up for a full point and 20 tic rally, 142.25. We knew the bond boys were coiled, and what they are doing isn't what you would construe as long term friendly to big growth and expansion. Sorry about the delay to post, as I have been trying to catch everyone up from the Chicago DTN conference.
Most grains settled near their highs, with corn up 2 3/4 to 384 3/4, wheat gaining a penny and a quarter, 522 1/2, and beans close 911 3/4, plus 6. Rice off 1/2 cent, 1097 1/2. Dow got hammered on even a thought that the deal might not go thru, but the reality is the market was a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade.. 25,046 for a 800 point pounding. Bonds rip up for a full point and 20 tic rally, 142.25. We knew the bond boys were coiled, and what they are doing isn't what you would construe as long term friendly to big growth and expansion. Sorry about the delay to post, as I have been trying to catch everyone up from the Chicago DTN conference.
12/03
Deal cut with USA and China, but the devil will be in the details. Corn up 4 1/4 to 382. Beans strong open but leak thru the day to 905 3/4, up 11 cents. Big volume to chew thru most of the standing offers in rice, 1098 for a 9 1/2 cent gain Wheat up 5 1/2, settles 521 1/4. Dow churn up again for another 307 point gain, 25,846. Bonds are starting to wake from the slumber for a 20 tic gain, 141.20.
Deal cut with USA and China, but the devil will be in the details. Corn up 4 1/4 to 382. Beans strong open but leak thru the day to 905 3/4, up 11 cents. Big volume to chew thru most of the standing offers in rice, 1098 for a 9 1/2 cent gain Wheat up 5 1/2, settles 521 1/4. Dow churn up again for another 307 point gain, 25,846. Bonds are starting to wake from the slumber for a 20 tic gain, 141.20.
11/30
March Corn up 4 1/2 Friday to 377 3/4, as Dec futures getting squeezed in corn, wheat, and oats. Wheat picked up 8 to 515 3/4, while beans gain 7 1/2 to 894 3/4. Rice down 3 cents after rejecting an early break, 1088 1/2. Dow continues its churning trade up, 25,539, for a 148 point gain. Bonds in another dull day but 13 tics higher at the close, 140.17. everything revolves around the G 20 meeting.
March Corn up 4 1/2 Friday to 377 3/4, as Dec futures getting squeezed in corn, wheat, and oats. Wheat picked up 8 to 515 3/4, while beans gain 7 1/2 to 894 3/4. Rice down 3 cents after rejecting an early break, 1088 1/2. Dow continues its churning trade up, 25,539, for a 148 point gain. Bonds in another dull day but 13 tics higher at the close, 140.17. everything revolves around the G 20 meeting.
11/29
We opened with decent exports, although rice was a little soft. Deliveries tonight don't really have any story to tell just yet, but very light. Switching to march for corn and wheat, with corn unchanged, 373 1/4, and wheat slipping 3 3/4 to 507 3/4. Rice up 9 1/2 against resting resistance, 1091 1/2. Beans off 3 1/4 cents, 887 1/4. Few things to note, corn held steady with over 40K contracts of what has to be some delivery clerk long liquidation pressure, which wont be there tomorrow, and rice had 90 Jan calls traded, but only 30 increase in open interest. Dow tried to shake a few weak longs early, but rallied to 25,391 for another 47 point gain. Bonds settled only 6 tics higher, 140.04, but al least had a more than point range, so the big money guys are getting done with the books reset, which will allow the churn machine to restart.
We opened with decent exports, although rice was a little soft. Deliveries tonight don't really have any story to tell just yet, but very light. Switching to march for corn and wheat, with corn unchanged, 373 1/4, and wheat slipping 3 3/4 to 507 3/4. Rice up 9 1/2 against resting resistance, 1091 1/2. Beans off 3 1/4 cents, 887 1/4. Few things to note, corn held steady with over 40K contracts of what has to be some delivery clerk long liquidation pressure, which wont be there tomorrow, and rice had 90 Jan calls traded, but only 30 increase in open interest. Dow tried to shake a few weak longs early, but rallied to 25,391 for another 47 point gain. Bonds settled only 6 tics higher, 140.04, but al least had a more than point range, so the big money guys are getting done with the books reset, which will allow the churn machine to restart.
11/28
Lots of things below the surface with Wednesday trade, including spreads in advance of first intentions. If you are long any December corn, wheat, oats, or products, you need to be out by todays close. Oats was a bear trap as we went limit up in December, and march was good for 15 cents rally as well. Corn up 4 cents to 360 1/2. Wheat lost 1/2 cent to 497 1/2, but that is deceptive, as the spread widened a nickel so march was stronger. Beans up 15 to 890 1/2, and you most certainly should be taking advantage of this order flow to clean up the soy loose ends. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1082, with almost all receipts now cancelled, including paying load out, and cash bids firmer than the board, yet well over 1/2 the open interest is commercial shorts that don't seem willing to cover. Tell me this contract isn't a little broke. Dow explodes another 602 to 25,344. Warned of this over 1000 points ago, and that was only last Friday, but pretty easy to spot. Bonds still asleep as the global bankers reshuffle the deck, but don't kid yourself, they should be almost done. 139.30, plus 1 tic.
Lots of things below the surface with Wednesday trade, including spreads in advance of first intentions. If you are long any December corn, wheat, oats, or products, you need to be out by todays close. Oats was a bear trap as we went limit up in December, and march was good for 15 cents rally as well. Corn up 4 cents to 360 1/2. Wheat lost 1/2 cent to 497 1/2, but that is deceptive, as the spread widened a nickel so march was stronger. Beans up 15 to 890 1/2, and you most certainly should be taking advantage of this order flow to clean up the soy loose ends. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1082, with almost all receipts now cancelled, including paying load out, and cash bids firmer than the board, yet well over 1/2 the open interest is commercial shorts that don't seem willing to cover. Tell me this contract isn't a little broke. Dow explodes another 602 to 25,344. Warned of this over 1000 points ago, and that was only last Friday, but pretty easy to spot. Bonds still asleep as the global bankers reshuffle the deck, but don't kid yourself, they should be almost done. 139.30, plus 1 tic.
11/27
Oats have rolled over and that is a drag on corn, but still 1/2 cent higher close, 356 1/2. Monday/Tuesday trade in wheat, 498, down 9 1/2. Rice cash stirring and futures up 9 1/2 to 1084 1/2. Bio mandates in Brazil and bio tax incentives for the oil, as well as meal staying above 300 gave the bean bulls a reason to push, up 13 1/4 to 875 1/2. Dow futures up another 143 to 24,742 after churning all the weak longs they could early, while the bonds quietly sleep, 139.29, plus 4 tics.
Oats have rolled over and that is a drag on corn, but still 1/2 cent higher close, 356 1/2. Monday/Tuesday trade in wheat, 498, down 9 1/2. Rice cash stirring and futures up 9 1/2 to 1084 1/2. Bio mandates in Brazil and bio tax incentives for the oil, as well as meal staying above 300 gave the bean bulls a reason to push, up 13 1/4 to 875 1/2. Dow futures up another 143 to 24,742 after churning all the weak longs they could early, while the bonds quietly sleep, 139.29, plus 4 tics.
11/26
Interesting Monday trade and signals. Corn off another 3 cents to 356 on long liquidation going into deliveries, a weak oat market, and what appears to be a rather aggressive new spec short. In fact, that is the comment of the day. Large spec short in crude, specs getting shorter in all the grains, all in front of the G20 meeting this weekend. With a nearly carry market in corn and still a few weak specs to run out, the margin clerks will do their job and the lows in corn will probably be set by Friday or Monday. Basis in the country is firmer and the operators need product. Rice off a penny, 1075 and several cash inquiries surfacing. Beans get smacked for 18 3/4 to 862 1/4. Old story, but the world is still awash of beans. I think the silent hand under beans might be managed money resets and now bean oil potentially getting a dollar a gallon bump for bio in the new farm bill. Wheat up another 7 3/4 to 507 1/2. Dow explodes up 339 to 24,599 as the computers are fully in control of what should be an upwardly, but viciously churning trade thru Christmas. Bonds have basically checked out, 139.25, minus 7 tics.
Interesting Monday trade and signals. Corn off another 3 cents to 356 on long liquidation going into deliveries, a weak oat market, and what appears to be a rather aggressive new spec short. In fact, that is the comment of the day. Large spec short in crude, specs getting shorter in all the grains, all in front of the G20 meeting this weekend. With a nearly carry market in corn and still a few weak specs to run out, the margin clerks will do their job and the lows in corn will probably be set by Friday or Monday. Basis in the country is firmer and the operators need product. Rice off a penny, 1075 and several cash inquiries surfacing. Beans get smacked for 18 3/4 to 862 1/4. Old story, but the world is still awash of beans. I think the silent hand under beans might be managed money resets and now bean oil potentially getting a dollar a gallon bump for bio in the new farm bill. Wheat up another 7 3/4 to 507 1/2. Dow explodes up 339 to 24,599 as the computers are fully in control of what should be an upwardly, but viciously churning trade thru Christmas. Bonds have basically checked out, 139.25, minus 7 tics.
11/23
Friday holiday trade and computers did some pushing to set the table for Monday, or at least put a few people on their heals a bit. Dow off 205 to 24,260 but really over 1200 points off the recent highs and they have to start the holiday rally from somewhere. I don't care the news, I would not short equities. Might not be a big buyer, but the bed is now lain for a big upside on little news. Bonds pick up 3 tics to 140 even. Wheat up a penny on Egypt and a potential global shift to our product maybe finally starting, while beans slip 2 cents, 881. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1076 with the options buyer putting another 20K cash on the table. Twenty- thirty grand a day, and pretty soon that's real money bet on the long side folks. Corn had to look below 60, and it did, off 2 3/4 to 359. Decent exports all around as well.
Friday holiday trade and computers did some pushing to set the table for Monday, or at least put a few people on their heals a bit. Dow off 205 to 24,260 but really over 1200 points off the recent highs and they have to start the holiday rally from somewhere. I don't care the news, I would not short equities. Might not be a big buyer, but the bed is now lain for a big upside on little news. Bonds pick up 3 tics to 140 even. Wheat up a penny on Egypt and a potential global shift to our product maybe finally starting, while beans slip 2 cents, 881. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1076 with the options buyer putting another 20K cash on the table. Twenty- thirty grand a day, and pretty soon that's real money bet on the long side folks. Corn had to look below 60, and it did, off 2 3/4 to 359. Decent exports all around as well.
11/21
Wednesday pre-holiday trade muted with thin markets and position squaring. Corn up 1/2 cent, 361 3/4. Rice closed 1078 1/2 for a nickel gain. Beans picked up a couple to 883, while wheat shed 2 to 498 3/4. Dow settled 28 higher, 24,465, but gave back most of a solid day of gains. Bonds off 4 tics, 139.29.
Wednesday pre-holiday trade muted with thin markets and position squaring. Corn up 1/2 cent, 361 3/4. Rice closed 1078 1/2 for a nickel gain. Beans picked up a couple to 883, while wheat shed 2 to 498 3/4. Dow settled 28 higher, 24,465, but gave back most of a solid day of gains. Bonds off 4 tics, 139.29.
11/20
Corn bears wants to push under 360 and spent a fair amount of volume to only get down another penny, 361 1/4. Rice drifts 3 1/2 lower, 1073 1/2. Beans caught a bid to push back from yesterdays selloff for 7 1/4 cent rally, 881. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 500 3/4. Dow was the drag on everything, losing 592 points to 24,437. bonds stable and up 8 tics to 140.01.
Corn bears wants to push under 360 and spent a fair amount of volume to only get down another penny, 361 1/4. Rice drifts 3 1/2 lower, 1073 1/2. Beans caught a bid to push back from yesterdays selloff for 7 1/4 cent rally, 881. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 500 3/4. Dow was the drag on everything, losing 592 points to 24,437. bonds stable and up 8 tics to 140.01.
11/19
Russia kicks back a little and the confidence that Trump will get something done at the G20 faded, or at least that's the story that lets the computers run the rest of the world around. For the day. Expect a new story tomorrow. Corn off 2 1/2 to 362 1/4. Rice drops 12 cents, 1077. Meals off over 5 bucks, and that made a 18 1/2 cent break in beans easier. Got to tell you, I think we need to be selling small doses of positions left in the beans on rallies. Dow down 422 to 25,029 and bonds up 7 tics, 139.25
Russia kicks back a little and the confidence that Trump will get something done at the G20 faded, or at least that's the story that lets the computers run the rest of the world around. For the day. Expect a new story tomorrow. Corn off 2 1/2 to 362 1/4. Rice drops 12 cents, 1077. Meals off over 5 bucks, and that made a 18 1/2 cent break in beans easier. Got to tell you, I think we need to be selling small doses of positions left in the beans on rallies. Dow down 422 to 25,029 and bonds up 7 tics, 139.25
Corn off 2 3/4 to 364 3/4 as we explore the lower end of my expected range, with harvest and farmer storing of beans over corn bringing the last from the fields direct to market. Oats up another 6 cents when the world thought they would roll over by now. Worth keeping an eye on. Rice pops 15 to 1089 with no follow thru of yesterdays break. Beans up 3 1/2, settling 892 1/4, but to me the real story is our old friend meal gained over 5 bucks and rejected a few waves of selling to do it. I cant fully understand the silent hand below the beans, but I have to respect it, and it is visible in the eyes of meal. Wheat was just a quiet unwind day, 506 3/4 for a 1 1/4 cent gain. Bulls don't trust that Russia will run out quick enough, and bears are mad that at least 3 cents of their precious carry trade is leaving. Financials got the start to a new story Friday, and I want a day or two to watch, but the FED puppet masters put their A 1 Muppet on CNBC on display to back peddle on any more rate hikes after December. Obviously, he cant say in layman's terms that the EU has enough problems without us increasing rates again, but the did put out the code words,(data driven moving forward) to let the global players know the fix is in. Just saying. Bonds up 25 tics to 139.18 and the dow futures gained 146 points to 25,451.
11/15
Listless corn rally early and a soft close, up 1/2 to 367 1/2. Rice liquidation trade on both sides for a 13 cent loss, 1074. Beans up 5 1/4 to 888 3/4 in front of delayed export sales and some more china talk. Wheat up 2 1/2 to 505 1/2. Dow had a good run to the upside as the computers have created so much air that running the markets willy nilly is easy. My spell check started with ruining in stead of running, go figure. Bond in rest mode before the storm, 138.25, off 3 tics.
Listless corn rally early and a soft close, up 1/2 to 367 1/2. Rice liquidation trade on both sides for a 13 cent loss, 1074. Beans up 5 1/4 to 888 3/4 in front of delayed export sales and some more china talk. Wheat up 2 1/2 to 505 1/2. Dow had a good run to the upside as the computers have created so much air that running the markets willy nilly is easy. My spell check started with ruining in stead of running, go figure. Bond in rest mode before the storm, 138.25, off 3 tics.
11/14
Dow weak, losing another 286 to 25.044 and putting everything in a cautionary trade. Crude did seem to stabilize. Bonds only found 9 tics, 138.28, so there is no fear yet. Corn up 1/2 cent, 367. Rice up 3 to 1087 as November goes off on low volume, but a long ways from carry. Beans get yesterdays break back with a 5 1/4 cent rally to 883 1/2. The silent hand is strong with this one. Wheat continues to finish off the last batch of suckers in this churn cycle, 503 and minus 4 3/4. Remember, this will be an all summer game on that court.
Dow weak, losing another 286 to 25.044 and putting everything in a cautionary trade. Crude did seem to stabilize. Bonds only found 9 tics, 138.28, so there is no fear yet. Corn up 1/2 cent, 367. Rice up 3 to 1087 as November goes off on low volume, but a long ways from carry. Beans get yesterdays break back with a 5 1/4 cent rally to 883 1/2. The silent hand is strong with this one. Wheat continues to finish off the last batch of suckers in this churn cycle, 503 and minus 4 3/4. Remember, this will be an all summer game on that court.
11/13
Wheat gives back 12 cents to 507 3/4 in thin air wheat trade. For the next 6 months, get use to it. Beans dropped a nickel in a choppy up and down trade, 878 1/4. Meal leaks a little too. Corn also took a hit, 366 1/2, down 4 3/4. New spec shorts, and cash sellers out of space and near the end of harvest letting go, but that will soon be done. Rice buyer and volume showed up today to push 25 higher into what appeared to be commercial selling at the highs, 1090. Tight spreads allow for snap rallies. This will be a year long theme in the grain room. Tight spreads, big pops. Carry spreads, more muted. Churning dow wound up off 51 points, 25,330. Bonds gained 4 tics to 138.19. Dow people hoping this is near a bottom of range inverted head and shoulders. It would be pretty easy to manufacture some bullish news. Would not fade.
Wheat gives back 12 cents to 507 3/4 in thin air wheat trade. For the next 6 months, get use to it. Beans dropped a nickel in a choppy up and down trade, 878 1/4. Meal leaks a little too. Corn also took a hit, 366 1/2, down 4 3/4. New spec shorts, and cash sellers out of space and near the end of harvest letting go, but that will soon be done. Rice buyer and volume showed up today to push 25 higher into what appeared to be commercial selling at the highs, 1090. Tight spreads allow for snap rallies. This will be a year long theme in the grain room. Tight spreads, big pops. Carry spreads, more muted. Churning dow wound up off 51 points, 25,330. Bonds gained 4 tics to 138.19. Dow people hoping this is near a bottom of range inverted head and shoulders. It would be pretty easy to manufacture some bullish news. Would not fade.
11/12
Penny and a half pop in corn, 371 1/4. Meal is dead and beans give back 3 1/2 to close 883 1/4. Wheat cash movement brought some short covering and just a lack of selling, good for a 17 3/4 cent rally to 519 3/4. Rice front squeeze continues, and Jan closes 3 1/2 higher, 1065, with solid flat price buying. Dow gets smacked down 592 to close 25,381 and bonds gain 18 tics to 138.15. Nothing is outlier in these financial markets, just big ranges developed by computers to create uncertainty and churn.
Penny and a half pop in corn, 371 1/4. Meal is dead and beans give back 3 1/2 to close 883 1/4. Wheat cash movement brought some short covering and just a lack of selling, good for a 17 3/4 cent rally to 519 3/4. Rice front squeeze continues, and Jan closes 3 1/2 higher, 1065, with solid flat price buying. Dow gets smacked down 592 to close 25,381 and bonds gain 18 tics to 138.15. Nothing is outlier in these financial markets, just big ranges developed by computers to create uncertainty and churn.
11/09
Kind of a muddled trade across the board on Friday. Dow gives up 227 to close 25,973, but that is still over 700 points higher than last Friday. Bonds pop 23 tics to 137.29, which is just a range bound trade churning anyone willing to chase a market. Corn off 3 3/4 to 369 3/4 without a real feature. Rice off 2 to 1061 1/2 as the front month squeeze continues. Oh, to be deliverable. Beans pop 7 3/4 on some short covering, 886 3/4, as the crush suffers order flow trade. Wheat drops 5 3/4 to 502 because its wheat, and if wheat don't know what to do, it breaks. One of the drawbacks to creating an incentive to deliver like variable rate storage.
Kind of a muddled trade across the board on Friday. Dow gives up 227 to close 25,973, but that is still over 700 points higher than last Friday. Bonds pop 23 tics to 137.29, which is just a range bound trade churning anyone willing to chase a market. Corn off 3 3/4 to 369 3/4 without a real feature. Rice off 2 to 1061 1/2 as the front month squeeze continues. Oh, to be deliverable. Beans pop 7 3/4 on some short covering, 886 3/4, as the crush suffers order flow trade. Wheat drops 5 3/4 to 502 because its wheat, and if wheat don't know what to do, it breaks. One of the drawbacks to creating an incentive to deliver like variable rate storage.
11/08
Financials take a break today, with the dow up 18 points, 26,200, and bonds slip 6 tics to 137.06. Grains got export sales, WASDE, and make believe numbers from china to deal with. On the morning exports report, corn, beans and rice all have something to hang your hat on. 11 o'clock WASDE incorporated the new History channel fantasy show, If you gonna lie, lie big, China edition. Ratings were muted at best, and after about 10 minutes, all the real players tuned that noise out. Beans got the reduction in exports expected, as well as the reduction in yield, which gives us a burdensome carry over everyone knows about. Now how we factor out the garbage beans, weather its increase in domestic and residual, or a discounted big export sales, is yet to be seen. After a 15 cent initial break, beans settle 879, off 1/2 cent. Wow. Corn up 1 1/4 to 373 1/2 on decreased production and room to increase demand from a muted carry in. Wheat off 2 1/2 cents, 507 3/4. Rice front squeeze continues, but flat price gets the computer push down late to 1063 1/2, off 9 1/2.
Financials take a break today, with the dow up 18 points, 26,200, and bonds slip 6 tics to 137.06. Grains got export sales, WASDE, and make believe numbers from china to deal with. On the morning exports report, corn, beans and rice all have something to hang your hat on. 11 o'clock WASDE incorporated the new History channel fantasy show, If you gonna lie, lie big, China edition. Ratings were muted at best, and after about 10 minutes, all the real players tuned that noise out. Beans got the reduction in exports expected, as well as the reduction in yield, which gives us a burdensome carry over everyone knows about. Now how we factor out the garbage beans, weather its increase in domestic and residual, or a discounted big export sales, is yet to be seen. After a 15 cent initial break, beans settle 879, off 1/2 cent. Wow. Corn up 1 1/4 to 373 1/2 on decreased production and room to increase demand from a muted carry in. Wheat off 2 1/2 cents, 507 3/4. Rice front squeeze continues, but flat price gets the computer push down late to 1063 1/2, off 9 1/2.
11/07
Rocking post election day in the equities, as the dow pops 541 to 26,182. Bonds pushed both sides, but settled off 2 tics, 137.12. Don't fall asleep on the bonds, they don't push both sides during a trading day and then just go back to sleep. If you have a dog in that fight, you shouldn't either. Grains listless, waiting for export sales and WASDE tomorrow. Corn off a penny, 372 1/4. Rice up 3 to 1073, as the unexplainable spread squeeze continues, While wheat slips 1 3/4 to 510 1/4 and beans give up another 4 3/4 to 879 1/2.
Rocking post election day in the equities, as the dow pops 541 to 26,182. Bonds pushed both sides, but settled off 2 tics, 137.12. Don't fall asleep on the bonds, they don't push both sides during a trading day and then just go back to sleep. If you have a dog in that fight, you shouldn't either. Grains listless, waiting for export sales and WASDE tomorrow. Corn off a penny, 372 1/4. Rice up 3 to 1073, as the unexplainable spread squeeze continues, While wheat slips 1 3/4 to 510 1/4 and beans give up another 4 3/4 to 879 1/2.
11/06
Another grinder day in front of the report, corn off 3/4 to 373 1/4. Beans slip 1 1/2 to 884 1/4. Rice off a dime in quiet trade, 1070. Wheat pops for no real reason by 4 3/4, 512. Dow up 200 in front of the election, 25,641, and bonds off 4 tics to 137.14.
Another grinder day in front of the report, corn off 3/4 to 373 1/4. Beans slip 1 1/2 to 884 1/4. Rice off a dime in quiet trade, 1070. Wheat pops for no real reason by 4 3/4, 512. Dow up 200 in front of the election, 25,641, and bonds off 4 tics to 137.14.
11/05
Monday trade firmer in corn as some new fund money comes to the market, 374 for a 2 3/4 cent gain. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1080. Beans slip 2 cents to 885 3/4, while wheat closes 507 1/4, off 1 1/2. Everyone is waiting for the WASDE number on the 8th, as well as exports. Dow up 200 to 25,441 and bonds up 13 tics to 137.18.
Monday trade firmer in corn as some new fund money comes to the market, 374 for a 2 3/4 cent gain. Rice up 5 1/2 to 1080. Beans slip 2 cents to 885 3/4, while wheat closes 507 1/4, off 1 1/2. Everyone is waiting for the WASDE number on the 8th, as well as exports. Dow up 200 to 25,441 and bonds up 13 tics to 137.18.
11/02
Friday trade had some grain bidding follow thru as beans peaked above $9, but backed up to settle 887 3/4, plus 5 3/4. Corn held above 70 for a 371 1/4 close, up 4 1/2. Wheat up 3/4 cent to 508 3/4. Rice continues its quiet march, up 1074 1/2, higher by 8/1/2. Unbelievably, some new receipts cancelled. Cash players already willing to take receipts and pay load out rather than pay a few cents more than their lower cash bid to the farmer. This is going to be one curious year in rice. Dow had a wild 600 point range but settles 84 lower, 25,241. Bonds drop a point and 9 tics to 137.05. That's why I called Thursday financial trade noise, because the computers can play for a day, but multiples cost real money. When you get bigger swings with unusual closes this year, my guess is the next day will reward you for trading like a contrarian rather than a follower.
Friday trade had some grain bidding follow thru as beans peaked above $9, but backed up to settle 887 3/4, plus 5 3/4. Corn held above 70 for a 371 1/4 close, up 4 1/2. Wheat up 3/4 cent to 508 3/4. Rice continues its quiet march, up 1074 1/2, higher by 8/1/2. Unbelievably, some new receipts cancelled. Cash players already willing to take receipts and pay load out rather than pay a few cents more than their lower cash bid to the farmer. This is going to be one curious year in rice. Dow had a wild 600 point range but settles 84 lower, 25,241. Bonds drop a point and 9 tics to 137.05. That's why I called Thursday financial trade noise, because the computers can play for a day, but multiples cost real money. When you get bigger swings with unusual closes this year, my guess is the next day will reward you for trading like a contrarian rather than a follower.
11/01
New month, New tweet, New market.. President Trump made a positive tweet about a meeting this month with China, which caught managed money on its heals, and we are off. Beans as expected were the biggest winner, 882 close for a gain of 30 1/4. Wheat up 7 1/2 to 508, and corn peaked briefly above 370, but settles 3 1/2 higher, 366 3/4. Rice short feeling some pressure as the spread continues its improbable squeeze, 1066 for a 10 1/2 cent gain. 33 more new deliveries tonight. Futures were 30 higher early, and that air is suspect to be tested. Dow gains 248 to close 25,325, but in a twist, bonds also gained 10 tics to 138.14. I'll call that noise for today, but radar is up a little for this dow move.
New month, New tweet, New market.. President Trump made a positive tweet about a meeting this month with China, which caught managed money on its heals, and we are off. Beans as expected were the biggest winner, 882 close for a gain of 30 1/4. Wheat up 7 1/2 to 508, and corn peaked briefly above 370, but settles 3 1/2 higher, 366 3/4. Rice short feeling some pressure as the spread continues its improbable squeeze, 1066 for a 10 1/2 cent gain. 33 more new deliveries tonight. Futures were 30 higher early, and that air is suspect to be tested. Dow gains 248 to close 25,325, but in a twist, bonds also gained 10 tics to 138.14. I'll call that noise for today, but radar is up a little for this dow move.
10/31
Nothing day in corn with a 1 1/2 cent lower drift, 363 1/4. Wheat was off a dime but bounced back to 3/4 higher, 500 1/2. Beans gain 4 3/4 to 851 3/4. Rice November sellers are all gone and we got a 11 1/2 cent bounce to 1055 1/2. It will be hard to break this market very far if the commercials are going to let nov be squeezed. Dow settled 218 higher, which was only middle of the range, just to remind you that when the computers expand a range, they expect to pillage everything in the middle of it, and repeatedly. Bonds of 25 more tics to 138.04. Export sales were a disappointment to me pretty much across the board, except a decent meal number. Beans got delivered to nearly current with under 1000 receipts and a decent open interest going in, so we have to respect that a bunch of open interest is just very short term
Nothing day in corn with a 1 1/2 cent lower drift, 363 1/4. Wheat was off a dime but bounced back to 3/4 higher, 500 1/2. Beans gain 4 3/4 to 851 3/4. Rice November sellers are all gone and we got a 11 1/2 cent bounce to 1055 1/2. It will be hard to break this market very far if the commercials are going to let nov be squeezed. Dow settled 218 higher, which was only middle of the range, just to remind you that when the computers expand a range, they expect to pillage everything in the middle of it, and repeatedly. Bonds of 25 more tics to 138.04. Export sales were a disappointment to me pretty much across the board, except a decent meal number. Beans got delivered to nearly current with under 1000 receipts and a decent open interest going in, so we have to respect that a bunch of open interest is just very short term
Deliveries start for nov contracts, so we will be switching to Jan futures in rice and beans. A learning trade that has happened yet again, when the market is dull and has a decent amount of inventory, grain will usually move lower going into deliveries as the margin clerks are calling longs and pressuring them to roll or sell out to avoid delivery. That selling should be done this morning, so I would not be surprised to see a weaker open and strength into the close or tomorrow. Jan beans off 5 1/4 to 847 and seeing a little softening in basis in certain areas as farmers are getting the crop in. Jan rice off 19 to 1044, but spread came into even which is crazy at this time of year, and the options boys are back sniffing. Corn off 2 to 364 3/4 and wheat fades to 499 3/4, minus 7 1/2. Dow rips 428 higher as the computers ran every seller off, 24,859, and bonds give up 14 tics to 138.29. Rice had 149 deliveries and open interest in nov is under 100, while beans had very light deliveries.
10/29
Early strength Monday couldn't hold against harvest pressure in the grains, as corn slips a penny to 366 3/4. Beans drop 6 to 839. Wheat does find a small 2 cent bounce to close 507 1/4. Rice did its standard pre delivery dive to 1047 1/2, down 25 1/2. There is some positive under the surface. See private comments. Dow off 315 to settle 24,431, and that's with a late bounce. Bonds off 3 tics, 139.11.
Early strength Monday couldn't hold against harvest pressure in the grains, as corn slips a penny to 366 3/4. Beans drop 6 to 839. Wheat does find a small 2 cent bounce to close 507 1/4. Rice did its standard pre delivery dive to 1047 1/2, down 25 1/2. There is some positive under the surface. See private comments. Dow off 315 to settle 24,431, and that's with a late bounce. Bonds off 3 tics, 139.11.
10/26
Friday grains rejected the Thursday new shorts break. Wheat put on the show early and held all day, 505 1/4 for an 18 cent gain. Corn up 6 3/4 to 367 3/4. Meal had a base and small rally, and beans followed suit for 3 1/4 rally to 845. Rice slips 6 1/2 more to 1073 as we have more liquidation spread trade, with nov OI under where I expected we would be right now. Dow looked ugly but found a base to climb out of, still off 131 for the day, 24,746. Bonds gained 23 tics to close 139.14, but even with an expansion of daily range, not out of my box of comfort. Wider range days are generally a precursor of increased volatility, so next week trade should be treated with respect in the financial arena.
Friday grains rejected the Thursday new shorts break. Wheat put on the show early and held all day, 505 1/4 for an 18 cent gain. Corn up 6 3/4 to 367 3/4. Meal had a base and small rally, and beans followed suit for 3 1/4 rally to 845. Rice slips 6 1/2 more to 1073 as we have more liquidation spread trade, with nov OI under where I expected we would be right now. Dow looked ugly but found a base to climb out of, still off 131 for the day, 24,746. Bonds gained 23 tics to close 139.14, but even with an expansion of daily range, not out of my box of comfort. Wider range days are generally a precursor of increased volatility, so next week trade should be treated with respect in the financial arena.
10/25
Wheat dropped 12 1/4 to 487 1/4, and that put the others on their heals as well. Corn down 7 1/4 to 361, near the lower end of my business range with good volume trading near the lows, a new spec seller into a commercial buyer if my guess is right. Beans close 841 3/4 for a loss of 8 1/2 cents and don't underestimate how Friday options expiration is being used by the machines. Rice off 6 for a 1079 1/2 settle and there was a march 1020/ 1360 strangle that supposedly traded on an offer, which would be new. Worth monitoring. A nov short rolled forward a couple hundred contracts as well. We got the empty space rally yesterday in the dow, 24,877 for a 261 point gain. Bonds lost 2 tics to 138.23, so don't try to read more into this computer attempt to destabilize than you have to . The real action will come around election day.
Wheat dropped 12 1/4 to 487 1/4, and that put the others on their heals as well. Corn down 7 1/4 to 361, near the lower end of my business range with good volume trading near the lows, a new spec seller into a commercial buyer if my guess is right. Beans close 841 3/4 for a loss of 8 1/2 cents and don't underestimate how Friday options expiration is being used by the machines. Rice off 6 for a 1079 1/2 settle and there was a march 1020/ 1360 strangle that supposedly traded on an offer, which would be new. Worth monitoring. A nov short rolled forward a couple hundred contracts as well. We got the empty space rally yesterday in the dow, 24,877 for a 261 point gain. Bonds lost 2 tics to 138.23, so don't try to read more into this computer attempt to destabilize than you have to . The real action will come around election day.
10/24
Harvest in overdrive as the farmer tries to get the crop in during this break in the weather. Corn off a couple to 368 1/4. Beans down 7 1/4 to 850 1/4. I figured bean options would box us in between 850-860, but with a weak meal market, it looks like short term selling is going to want to press out of the bottom end this week. This weekend will be the annual stories about long lines to dump and piles on the ground, supposedly with no place to go. The off grade, and worse, will be reported later. I will remind you that the USDA job is to report volume, not quality. Wheat off 9 1/2 to 499 1/2. Rice up 3 1/2 without much of a story and no calls traded again, 1085 1/2. Count down to deliveries begins. Dow gets hammered as feared to 24,616, losing 628. Bonds were only up 19 so the flight to quality really didn't support that big of a break, but we do have the two days of the week that begin with a T left to trade. Today and tomorrow.
Harvest in overdrive as the farmer tries to get the crop in during this break in the weather. Corn off a couple to 368 1/4. Beans down 7 1/4 to 850 1/4. I figured bean options would box us in between 850-860, but with a weak meal market, it looks like short term selling is going to want to press out of the bottom end this week. This weekend will be the annual stories about long lines to dump and piles on the ground, supposedly with no place to go. The off grade, and worse, will be reported later. I will remind you that the USDA job is to report volume, not quality. Wheat off 9 1/2 to 499 1/2. Rice up 3 1/2 without much of a story and no calls traded again, 1085 1/2. Count down to deliveries begins. Dow gets hammered as feared to 24,616, losing 628. Bonds were only up 19 so the flight to quality really didn't support that big of a break, but we do have the two days of the week that begin with a T left to trade. Today and tomorrow.
10/23
Corn interior basis firmed while the river weakened. Get use to it, and cozy up to your domestic buyers for corn and beans this year, because domestic consumption is price inelastic right now. They don't want futures up, so basis has to do its job, both beans and corn. It will get even more interesting once the bin doors are closed if I have this read right. Corn up 3/4 to 370 1/4. Beans close a penny lower, 857 1/2. Wheat up a penny, 509. Rice had either an idiot last night, or a quant trying to get someone to show their hand. Zero calls traded again today as futures give up 1 1/2 to 1082. This Saudi murder thing has some global legs, and the Saudis are turning the oil spigots open full to change the story, with crude getting a sucker punch lower. Dow rallied nearly 500 points to close only 50 lower on the day, 25,144, but that is a big hole, and you know what the computers do with them. Bond broke a full point off the highs to close 138.06, a gain of 12 tics. Around 9 this morning, there was a fear of an equity rout by my read, and if we don't put some distance away from this hole tomorrow, this might just be a very scary October.
Corn interior basis firmed while the river weakened. Get use to it, and cozy up to your domestic buyers for corn and beans this year, because domestic consumption is price inelastic right now. They don't want futures up, so basis has to do its job, both beans and corn. It will get even more interesting once the bin doors are closed if I have this read right. Corn up 3/4 to 370 1/4. Beans close a penny lower, 857 1/2. Wheat up a penny, 509. Rice had either an idiot last night, or a quant trying to get someone to show their hand. Zero calls traded again today as futures give up 1 1/2 to 1082. This Saudi murder thing has some global legs, and the Saudis are turning the oil spigots open full to change the story, with crude getting a sucker punch lower. Dow rallied nearly 500 points to close only 50 lower on the day, 25,144, but that is a big hole, and you know what the computers do with them. Bond broke a full point off the highs to close 138.06, a gain of 12 tics. Around 9 this morning, there was a fear of an equity rout by my read, and if we don't put some distance away from this hole tomorrow, this might just be a very scary October.
10/22
Monday bounce as harvest wasn't stellar thru the weekend, but should be solid this week. Corn up 2 1/2 to 369 1/2, while beans pick up 1 3/4 to 858 1/2. Rice buyer didn't show up, and the bears took it down 20 cents, 1083 1/2. wheat loses 6 3/4 to 508. Dow just couldn't get anything going, and every bounce was met with selling, 25,294 for a 134 loss. Another nothing bond day, 137.26, plus 3.
Monday bounce as harvest wasn't stellar thru the weekend, but should be solid this week. Corn up 2 1/2 to 369 1/2, while beans pick up 1 3/4 to 858 1/2. Rice buyer didn't show up, and the bears took it down 20 cents, 1083 1/2. wheat loses 6 3/4 to 508. Dow just couldn't get anything going, and every bounce was met with selling, 25,294 for a 134 loss. Another nothing bond day, 137.26, plus 3.
10/19
Little more harvest pressure to end the week, with corn closing 367, minus 3 3/4. Beans down 6 3/4 to 856 3/4. Wheat stalls and closes up 1 3/4 at 514 3/4. Rice buyer is still in the game and the spread roll continues as well, 1103 1/2, up 7 1/2. Dow churns for 47 positive points to close 25,428, and the bonds waste another day and settle 13 tics lower, 137.23.
Little more harvest pressure to end the week, with corn closing 367, minus 3 3/4. Beans down 6 3/4 to 856 3/4. Wheat stalls and closes up 1 3/4 at 514 3/4. Rice buyer is still in the game and the spread roll continues as well, 1103 1/2, up 7 1/2. Dow churns for 47 positive points to close 25,428, and the bonds waste another day and settle 13 tics lower, 137.23.
10/18
Corn down another 3 1/2 to 370 3/4 as the market is getting a few new shorts trying to catch a break. Rice unchanged with spread roll being the primary feature, but a new long obviously building position. Beans took it on the chin as the computers did an absolutely excellent job this week of herding shorts out, and new longs into the soy complex, only to be fleeced. Don't think this will be the only time. 863 1/2, down 22 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/2 . Dow punched a hole lower and recovered on Wednesday, but used that air to run the market down 355 to 25,381. I cant stress how important it is for you to realize that the computers are running this show, Their systems aren't that hard to spot, and until they loose, the system will repeat. Same guy that programs a dow trade programs a bean trade. Bonds off a tic to 138.04.
Corn down another 3 1/2 to 370 3/4 as the market is getting a few new shorts trying to catch a break. Rice unchanged with spread roll being the primary feature, but a new long obviously building position. Beans took it on the chin as the computers did an absolutely excellent job this week of herding shorts out, and new longs into the soy complex, only to be fleeced. Don't think this will be the only time. 863 1/2, down 22 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/2 . Dow punched a hole lower and recovered on Wednesday, but used that air to run the market down 355 to 25,381. I cant stress how important it is for you to realize that the computers are running this show, Their systems aren't that hard to spot, and until they loose, the system will repeat. Same guy that programs a dow trade programs a bean trade. Bonds off a tic to 138.04.
10/17
Combines start rolling again which helps put a brake on futures for today, as corn slips a penny to 374 1/4. Beans flop around and close 885 3/4 for a penny gain. Wheat drops another 6 cents to 517 1/2 and just stuck in a range. Rice gains 7 1/2 to 1096 as the $11 barrier is pushed, very much like a computer hunting stops. Hearding into resting sell orders? Dow pokes lower but rebounds to only down 46 points at the end of trade, 25,736. Generally when they poke these holes one day, they like to revisit them again in short order. Bonds off 11 to 138.05.
Combines start rolling again which helps put a brake on futures for today, as corn slips a penny to 374 1/4. Beans flop around and close 885 3/4 for a penny gain. Wheat drops another 6 cents to 517 1/2 and just stuck in a range. Rice gains 7 1/2 to 1096 as the $11 barrier is pushed, very much like a computer hunting stops. Hearding into resting sell orders? Dow pokes lower but rebounds to only down 46 points at the end of trade, 25,736. Generally when they poke these holes one day, they like to revisit them again in short order. Bonds off 11 to 138.05.
10/16
Was worried about continuation of Mondays trade, and with reasonable cause. Its a lot easier to run shorts out with a computer and AI derived program than to get new suckers to buy. Corn off 3 cents, 375 1/4. Wheat gives up 1 1/2 to close 523 1/2. Meal was a weak leg of the soy complex and that allowed beans to drop 6 3/4 to 884 3/4. We will need to see actual yield losses now to keep this ball rolling. That said, quality in the bin should get a solid basis between now and Christmas. Rice roll continued and futures buying pushed us 13 1/2 higher to 1088 1/2. Really weird trade in rice, and I expect some news in the next few weeks to justify current positioning. Dow exploded higher and spanked every seller, all day long to gain 581 points on the day, 25,782. Bonds just took a nap and missed a day, 138.16, up 7 tics.
Was worried about continuation of Mondays trade, and with reasonable cause. Its a lot easier to run shorts out with a computer and AI derived program than to get new suckers to buy. Corn off 3 cents, 375 1/4. Wheat gives up 1 1/2 to close 523 1/2. Meal was a weak leg of the soy complex and that allowed beans to drop 6 3/4 to 884 3/4. We will need to see actual yield losses now to keep this ball rolling. That said, quality in the bin should get a solid basis between now and Christmas. Rice roll continued and futures buying pushed us 13 1/2 higher to 1088 1/2. Really weird trade in rice, and I expect some news in the next few weeks to justify current positioning. Dow exploded higher and spanked every seller, all day long to gain 581 points on the day, 25,782. Bonds just took a nap and missed a day, 138.16, up 7 tics.
10/15
A lot to digest in the details of Mondays trade. Computers are running in the shorts for starters. Corn up 4 1/2 to 378 1/4 but a 13K decline in OI to do it. Also, oats tried to trade limit which helped all the grains, but OI up nearly 10% on the day. That shows in an exaggerated way just how little computers care about practicality in pricing. Time will tell. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1075 as the spreads roll, but there is a bit under the currents there as well. Beans up 24 with the crop in the field taking big hits, but there is room for the big hits in carry over, 891 1/2 and a frogs hair from $9. Meal strong all day as well. Wheat up 7 3/4 to 525. Dow just in a new and bigger range, 25,201, off 115. Bonds off 14 tics in a sleeper trade, 138.09. Barring a collapse in the dow, bonds should continue to leak for the foreseeable future.
A lot to digest in the details of Mondays trade. Computers are running in the shorts for starters. Corn up 4 1/2 to 378 1/4 but a 13K decline in OI to do it. Also, oats tried to trade limit which helped all the grains, but OI up nearly 10% on the day. That shows in an exaggerated way just how little computers care about practicality in pricing. Time will tell. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1075 as the spreads roll, but there is a bit under the currents there as well. Beans up 24 with the crop in the field taking big hits, but there is room for the big hits in carry over, 891 1/2 and a frogs hair from $9. Meal strong all day as well. Wheat up 7 3/4 to 525. Dow just in a new and bigger range, 25,201, off 115. Bonds off 14 tics in a sleeper trade, 138.09. Barring a collapse in the dow, bonds should continue to leak for the foreseeable future.
10/12
Good export sales and really good shipments was the grain story of Friday, and the dow break lost its momentum. Corn up 4 1/2 to 373 3/4 and solid volume north of 370, but I would prefer to see those numbers with an increasing open interest, vs decreasing. We almost have to ignore Mondays trade and defer to Tuesdays close for our next indication. Rice unchanged, 1068 1/2 with carry getting put back into the spread as OI drops to 3600 nov, and we have new selling, Beans near the highs, 867 1/2 for a 9 1/4 gain. Wheat pops 9 1/4 to 517 1/4. Really big computer churn in the Dow but a 25,316 settle for a 131 point gain. The elephants are dancing and the grass is getting trampled, and If you don't know you are an elephant, you are grass. Stay off the field. Bonds had minor league computer churn to close 138.23, off 4 tics.
Good export sales and really good shipments was the grain story of Friday, and the dow break lost its momentum. Corn up 4 1/2 to 373 3/4 and solid volume north of 370, but I would prefer to see those numbers with an increasing open interest, vs decreasing. We almost have to ignore Mondays trade and defer to Tuesdays close for our next indication. Rice unchanged, 1068 1/2 with carry getting put back into the spread as OI drops to 3600 nov, and we have new selling, Beans near the highs, 867 1/2 for a 9 1/4 gain. Wheat pops 9 1/4 to 517 1/4. Really big computer churn in the Dow but a 25,316 settle for a 131 point gain. The elephants are dancing and the grass is getting trampled, and If you don't know you are an elephant, you are grass. Stay off the field. Bonds had minor league computer churn to close 138.23, off 4 tics.
10/11
Sorry for the delay. The exchange 9 pm posting wasn't out at 10:40 last night, and I had commitments this morning. Dow off another 334 to 25,185, but action by my read was basing after flushing out all they could, I would not stand in front of a late break today, but I don't expect one either. Bonds rallied 1.19 in one of the most obvious blind squirrel trades of the year, 138.27. Wheat report was bearish to me, but in this global environment I wouldn't want to be short sub five buck wheat. 508, minus 2 1/2. Rice liquidation drove the market down 25 1/2 to 1068 1/2. Solid corn numbers provided a 6 1/2 cent rally to 369 1/4, and raised my base to 360 from 350 longer term. Beans weren't as bearish as expected, so we got a six cent pop to 858 1/4. Domestic demand is price inelastic for another dollar, and once the bin doors close, domestics wont be able to buy any sub $9 beans from the farmer.
Sorry for the delay. The exchange 9 pm posting wasn't out at 10:40 last night, and I had commitments this morning. Dow off another 334 to 25,185, but action by my read was basing after flushing out all they could, I would not stand in front of a late break today, but I don't expect one either. Bonds rallied 1.19 in one of the most obvious blind squirrel trades of the year, 138.27. Wheat report was bearish to me, but in this global environment I wouldn't want to be short sub five buck wheat. 508, minus 2 1/2. Rice liquidation drove the market down 25 1/2 to 1068 1/2. Solid corn numbers provided a 6 1/2 cent rally to 369 1/4, and raised my base to 360 from 350 longer term. Beans weren't as bearish as expected, so we got a six cent pop to 858 1/4. Domestic demand is price inelastic for another dollar, and once the bin doors close, domestics wont be able to buy any sub $9 beans from the farmer.
10/10
Dow probed lower as expected, but not with this much voracity .962 points lower to close 25,519, and continuing lower as we speak. That puts a damper on everything. Settling up pre report in the grains was the story of the day. Corn off 1 3/4 to 362 3/4 while wheat drops 4 1/2 to 510 1/2. Beans drop 10 3/4 to flirt with 850 again, 852 1/4 to end the day. WASDE report tomorrow at 11. I have stated numerous times and still believe that the high water mark for production will be this report. Rice had big roll trade today with nov open interest down to 4600, and the $11 handle seems to be attracting pricing, 1093 for a penny and a half loss. Bonds lost 15 tic to 137.08 in a bit of odd trade as there was no flight to safety with the dow break. That wont last.
Dow probed lower as expected, but not with this much voracity .962 points lower to close 25,519, and continuing lower as we speak. That puts a damper on everything. Settling up pre report in the grains was the story of the day. Corn off 1 3/4 to 362 3/4 while wheat drops 4 1/2 to 510 1/2. Beans drop 10 3/4 to flirt with 850 again, 852 1/4 to end the day. WASDE report tomorrow at 11. I have stated numerous times and still believe that the high water mark for production will be this report. Rice had big roll trade today with nov open interest down to 4600, and the $11 handle seems to be attracting pricing, 1093 for a penny and a half loss. Bonds lost 15 tic to 137.08 in a bit of odd trade as there was no flight to safety with the dow break. That wont last.
10/09
Another quiet harvest day. Corn off a couple, 364 1/2. Wheat settles 515 for a penny gain, while beans slip 6 3/4 to 863. Rice short still covering for a 7 1/2 cent bump to 1095. Dow off 63 to 26,481 and bonds bounce 22 tics to 137.23.
Another quiet harvest day. Corn off a couple, 364 1/2. Wheat settles 515 for a penny gain, while beans slip 6 3/4 to 863. Rice short still covering for a 7 1/2 cent bump to 1095. Dow off 63 to 26,481 and bonds bounce 22 tics to 137.23.
10/08
Holiday Monday trade. Corn off 1 3/4 to close 366 1/2. Beans up 3/4 to 869 3/4. Wheat back in a churn trade and 7 lower on the day, 514. More short liquidation in the rice, 1087 1/2 and 5 1/2 higher in the process. Drove part of Indiana yesterday, and was surprised how much beans were still in the field, and their variability in maturity. I did walk a field ready to be cut, and it was a solid yielder, so up in the air about what to think. Mid 30s in a few days isn't what several of those fields need though. Dow up 52 at the end of the day, 26,544, but the computers punched a hole lower early, and easy money says that gets explored later. Bonds off another 8 tics, 137.01.
Holiday Monday trade. Corn off 1 3/4 to close 366 1/2. Beans up 3/4 to 869 3/4. Wheat back in a churn trade and 7 lower on the day, 514. More short liquidation in the rice, 1087 1/2 and 5 1/2 higher in the process. Drove part of Indiana yesterday, and was surprised how much beans were still in the field, and their variability in maturity. I did walk a field ready to be cut, and it was a solid yielder, so up in the air about what to think. Mid 30s in a few days isn't what several of those fields need though. Dow up 52 at the end of the day, 26,544, but the computers punched a hole lower early, and easy money says that gets explored later. Bonds off another 8 tics, 137.01.
10/05
Corn rejects a lower trade to close 3/4 higher, 368 1/4. Same story in beans, but meal was up strong and pulled beans as well, 869 and up 9 3/4. Wheat gains 3 to 521. Rice also up 4 to 1082. Dow took a solid hit during the day, but rallied late to 26.492, still off 160, after Chicago was cleared of being burnt to the ground by mob rule. Maybe the sentencing will be the next trigger. Bonds off another 20 tics to 137.09 as we look for the new floor, which I still have 10 points or more lower by the end of the year.
Corn rejects a lower trade to close 3/4 higher, 368 1/4. Same story in beans, but meal was up strong and pulled beans as well, 869 and up 9 3/4. Wheat gains 3 to 521. Rice also up 4 to 1082. Dow took a solid hit during the day, but rallied late to 26.492, still off 160, after Chicago was cleared of being burnt to the ground by mob rule. Maybe the sentencing will be the next trigger. Bonds off another 20 tics to 137.09 as we look for the new floor, which I still have 10 points or more lower by the end of the year.
10/04
We use to always say on the floor, oats, always leading, never lying, and oats are rocking. Corn and wheat gain 2 3/4 apiece, 367 1/2 and 518 for settles. Beans are the weak link off another 2 1/4 to 859 1/4. If the shippers are going to take all the government bean check away in discounts, are they going to pass it all on? Seems like regardless of what happens, the farmer is ultimately just a pass thru. Rice up another 29 to 1078 on solid volume and some rolls thrown in to boot. That's a buck solid in a week. Bonds off another 19 tics, 137.29, but again acting like a base, while dow drops 220 to 26,652, and that's with a strong rally from the lows. Air below and above going into a weekend. Couldn't ask for a better setup for the computer churn machines.
We use to always say on the floor, oats, always leading, never lying, and oats are rocking. Corn and wheat gain 2 3/4 apiece, 367 1/2 and 518 for settles. Beans are the weak link off another 2 1/4 to 859 1/4. If the shippers are going to take all the government bean check away in discounts, are they going to pass it all on? Seems like regardless of what happens, the farmer is ultimately just a pass thru. Rice up another 29 to 1078 on solid volume and some rolls thrown in to boot. That's a buck solid in a week. Bonds off another 19 tics, 137.29, but again acting like a base, while dow drops 220 to 26,652, and that's with a strong rally from the lows. Air below and above going into a weekend. Couldn't ask for a better setup for the computer churn machines.
10/03
Grains take a break today as corn drifts off 2 3/4 cents, 364 3/4. Beans slip 4 1/2 to settle 861 1/2. Wheat drops 4 to close 515 1/4. Rice continues its march up, 1049 and gaining 22 1/2 with the big short still not flinching, but certainly no longer winning. Weather has put a ceiling on the size of every crop now, and moving forward. Dow up 65 to 26,872 while the bonds gave up on basing, and broke 2 FULL POINTS. That's 64 tics for you non financial guys, and tomorrow will confirm or not if we are moving into a new arena. Bonds are my global marker, and they just said to pay attention, there is about to be a change. Next few days will tell.
Grains take a break today as corn drifts off 2 3/4 cents, 364 3/4. Beans slip 4 1/2 to settle 861 1/2. Wheat drops 4 to close 515 1/4. Rice continues its march up, 1049 and gaining 22 1/2 with the big short still not flinching, but certainly no longer winning. Weather has put a ceiling on the size of every crop now, and moving forward. Dow up 65 to 26,872 while the bonds gave up on basing, and broke 2 FULL POINTS. That's 64 tics for you non financial guys, and tomorrow will confirm or not if we are moving into a new arena. Bonds are my global marker, and they just said to pay attention, there is about to be a change. Next few days will tell.
10/02
Players wanted to push the markets down early, but the close is what's important, and stronger across the board is the story. Corn up 1 3/4 to 367 1/2. Beans gain another 8 1/4 to 866. Wheat up 9 3/4 to 519 1/4 as the bears run out of steam. Rice up another 13 to 1026 1/2 as the bear fired bullets early but was rebuked. Be interesting to see how much he has left in the chamber for tomorrow. Dow up another 129 points, 26,807 and bonds gain 17 tics to try to establish the floor of the range, 140.16. Bears across the floor are starting to squirm, and the best crops are the early harvested, with more problems as of late, which leads me to believe whatever the USDA puts out for oct will be the high watermark of supply.
Players wanted to push the markets down early, but the close is what's important, and stronger across the board is the story. Corn up 1 3/4 to 367 1/2. Beans gain another 8 1/4 to 866. Wheat up 9 3/4 to 519 1/4 as the bears run out of steam. Rice up another 13 to 1026 1/2 as the bear fired bullets early but was rebuked. Be interesting to see how much he has left in the chamber for tomorrow. Dow up another 129 points, 26,807 and bonds gain 17 tics to try to establish the floor of the range, 140.16. Bears across the floor are starting to squirm, and the best crops are the early harvested, with more problems as of late, which leads me to believe whatever the USDA puts out for oct will be the high watermark of supply.
10/01
Weekend weather and quality stories making the rounds to start Monday trade. Add Canada falling in line as expected, and a shakeup at GE and Musk realizing he still has to kiss the ring, and we were set for a solid day. Corn up 9 1/2 to 365 3/4, where volume is trading, and was the top before. Beans up 12 1/4, with a 857 3/4 close. Quality discounts and off yields as the season progresses. The Dakotas feeling the pinch of China more than most. Rice up 35 1/2 to 1013 1/2 as no one was left to push it down, and sourcing rice below $4.50 isn't going to happen except for those who might not be farming much longer anyway. Dead wheat day, 509 1/2, up 1/2. Dow got the above mentioned fuel for a 202 point pop, 26,678 and bonds leak 17 tics, 139.31. The story wont be told on todays open, but focus more on the close.
Weekend weather and quality stories making the rounds to start Monday trade. Add Canada falling in line as expected, and a shakeup at GE and Musk realizing he still has to kiss the ring, and we were set for a solid day. Corn up 9 1/2 to 365 3/4, where volume is trading, and was the top before. Beans up 12 1/4, with a 857 3/4 close. Quality discounts and off yields as the season progresses. The Dakotas feeling the pinch of China more than most. Rice up 35 1/2 to 1013 1/2 as no one was left to push it down, and sourcing rice below $4.50 isn't going to happen except for those who might not be farming much longer anyway. Dead wheat day, 509 1/2, up 1/2. Dow got the above mentioned fuel for a 202 point pop, 26,678 and bonds leak 17 tics, 139.31. The story wont be told on todays open, but focus more on the close.
9/28
USDA found more stocks, and the shorts that were nervous had already covered, so grains took a little hit today. Corn down a little harder than expected to 356 1/4, off 8 1/2. I'm thinking that's a bit over done, but it is another harvest weekend. Lots of talk about storage in bags, and lower prices make taking that risk easier to bear. Nothing in rice, 978 and off 1/2 cent. Beans drop 9 1/2 to 845 1/2 as SA planting starts to dial up, but even with tariff and currency benefits for them, its not all rainbows and unicorns in the other hemisphere. Terrible basis, difficult transportation, government policy changes, as well as leadership, have made for some very uncertain times down there. Small decreases in open interest lets you know some short term longs jumped off as well. Wheat off4 to 509. Dow churned but a 3 tic higher close, 26,476. Bonds off 5 tics in a nothing day, 140.16. Lets hope the DC circus can get its act together next week so we can get on with business.
USDA found more stocks, and the shorts that were nervous had already covered, so grains took a little hit today. Corn down a little harder than expected to 356 1/4, off 8 1/2. I'm thinking that's a bit over done, but it is another harvest weekend. Lots of talk about storage in bags, and lower prices make taking that risk easier to bear. Nothing in rice, 978 and off 1/2 cent. Beans drop 9 1/2 to 845 1/2 as SA planting starts to dial up, but even with tariff and currency benefits for them, its not all rainbows and unicorns in the other hemisphere. Terrible basis, difficult transportation, government policy changes, as well as leadership, have made for some very uncertain times down there. Small decreases in open interest lets you know some short term longs jumped off as well. Wheat off4 to 509. Dow churned but a 3 tic higher close, 26,476. Bonds off 5 tics in a nothing day, 140.16. Lets hope the DC circus can get its act together next week so we can get on with business.
9/27
Quiet pre report day, with corn up another 1 3/4 to 364 3/4. Quite a few nervous shorts have left the dance these last several days between 360-65. Market will need to stand on its own after the report. Same story for the beans, but with a bigger supply story, 855 close and up a nickel. Rice at unchanged, 978 1/2 and another gain in open interest when we should be dropping and rolling. Take note. Wheat loses 4 1/2 to 513. Ball just landed on red instead of black. Dow up 54 to 26,473 but struggled late, as the bonds found a footing to close 4 tics higher, 140.21. As we inch closer to an inverted yield curve, recession fears come closer to the front page. Longer term thought there, not something you need to trade today, but be aware of for long term planning.
Quiet pre report day, with corn up another 1 3/4 to 364 3/4. Quite a few nervous shorts have left the dance these last several days between 360-65. Market will need to stand on its own after the report. Same story for the beans, but with a bigger supply story, 855 close and up a nickel. Rice at unchanged, 978 1/2 and another gain in open interest when we should be dropping and rolling. Take note. Wheat loses 4 1/2 to 513. Ball just landed on red instead of black. Dow up 54 to 26,473 but struggled late, as the bonds found a footing to close 4 tics higher, 140.21. As we inch closer to an inverted yield curve, recession fears come closer to the front page. Longer term thought there, not something you need to trade today, but be aware of for long term planning.
9/26
Slow trade day with more corn short liquidation and a 3/4 cent drop, 363. Rice dropped 9 to 987 1/2 as the icebergs got filled at the 80 area, but no one willing to make a new push lower. Not going to pry much out of the farmer hands below 4.50 a bu., but it should help increase the co-op handle. Beans back to 850 on a 4 1/4 cent gain. Wheat chops and churns but settles 3 1/4 lower, 517 1/2. Bonds find a bid, 140.17, up 24 and that gives the dow a reason to leak, 26,419, off 101
Slow trade day with more corn short liquidation and a 3/4 cent drop, 363. Rice dropped 9 to 987 1/2 as the icebergs got filled at the 80 area, but no one willing to make a new push lower. Not going to pry much out of the farmer hands below 4.50 a bu., but it should help increase the co-op handle. Beans back to 850 on a 4 1/4 cent gain. Wheat chops and churns but settles 3 1/4 lower, 517 1/2. Bonds find a bid, 140.17, up 24 and that gives the dow a reason to leak, 26,419, off 101
9/25
Something to think about in this quiet rally of small time short covering. Since last Tuesdays close beans are up 30 cents, corn 20, and wheat a dime. And big shorts still are out there with nothing scary looking in the charts to make me want to tap out just yet. Corn especially seems to be finding export business and should for the foreseeable future. Corn up another 3 1/4 to 363 3/4. Beans get back 4 3/4 for a 845 3/4 settle. We need to watch out for a lower than 958 high trade tomorrow to make sure the algos don't paint a reversal as my only short term high caveat. Brazil has sold a bunch of beans to China already, and Argy seems to need to buy from us every time they sell to china. Lets not even get started on the SA currency situation. I do expect a cutback in china demand, but they will by shortage, and apparently not before. Also, for those how know me best, I always run my numbers X china for a reason, and that reason is about to be put into play. Wheat drops 6 1/4 to 520 3/4 because its wheat. Look no further. Rice up 4 1/2 in a relatively quiet trade, 987 1/2. Dow ends down 90 point at 26,520, but it was a churn type trade that denotes the computers are getting comfortable with just a minor setback right now, confirmed by bonds off 15 tics, 139.25.
Something to think about in this quiet rally of small time short covering. Since last Tuesdays close beans are up 30 cents, corn 20, and wheat a dime. And big shorts still are out there with nothing scary looking in the charts to make me want to tap out just yet. Corn especially seems to be finding export business and should for the foreseeable future. Corn up another 3 1/4 to 363 3/4. Beans get back 4 3/4 for a 845 3/4 settle. We need to watch out for a lower than 958 high trade tomorrow to make sure the algos don't paint a reversal as my only short term high caveat. Brazil has sold a bunch of beans to China already, and Argy seems to need to buy from us every time they sell to china. Lets not even get started on the SA currency situation. I do expect a cutback in china demand, but they will by shortage, and apparently not before. Also, for those how know me best, I always run my numbers X china for a reason, and that reason is about to be put into play. Wheat drops 6 1/4 to 520 3/4 because its wheat. Look no further. Rice up 4 1/2 in a relatively quiet trade, 987 1/2. Dow ends down 90 point at 26,520, but it was a churn type trade that denotes the computers are getting comfortable with just a minor setback right now, confirmed by bonds off 15 tics, 139.25.
9/24
Monday trade pretty uneventful, and I still stand by the comments that right now we need to be focusing on getting the crop in, not the casino pricing. Oats up 6, and that helped corn and wheat. Wheat settles 527, plus 5 1/4. Corn thru 60 to 360 1/2 for a gain of 3 1/4. Rice dropped a nickel to 983, with most trade between 980-85. Open interest is all in the November, so we will have some fireworks in the next month as this looks like it could be a messy roll. Beans give back 6 1/4 to 841 as short covering takes a break. Dow off 144 to 26,610, and that is with a S&P index reset, which is normally friendly. Bond stall for the day, off 3 tics, 140.08
Monday trade pretty uneventful, and I still stand by the comments that right now we need to be focusing on getting the crop in, not the casino pricing. Oats up 6, and that helped corn and wheat. Wheat settles 527, plus 5 1/4. Corn thru 60 to 360 1/2 for a gain of 3 1/4. Rice dropped a nickel to 983, with most trade between 980-85. Open interest is all in the November, so we will have some fireworks in the next month as this looks like it could be a messy roll. Beans give back 6 1/4 to 841 as short covering takes a break. Dow off 144 to 26,610, and that is with a S&P index reset, which is normally friendly. Bond stall for the day, off 3 tics, 140.08
9/21
Nothing real crazy to get excited about for Friday trade. Corn continues its rally to 357 1/4, up 4 3/4. Beans slip 3 cents, 847 1/4 and a pretty decent close considering meal drops $5.50. Wheat gives back 2 1/4 and another day holding Wednesdays rally. 521 3/4. Rice up 1/2 cent, 988 and another strange volume and open interest day. One thing is clear, there is a shift in ownership. Dow takes a rally break as expected, 26,754 and up only 27 with the bonds up 3 tics in a quiet day, 140.11.
Nothing real crazy to get excited about for Friday trade. Corn continues its rally to 357 1/4, up 4 3/4. Beans slip 3 cents, 847 1/4 and a pretty decent close considering meal drops $5.50. Wheat gives back 2 1/4 and another day holding Wednesdays rally. 521 3/4. Rice up 1/2 cent, 988 and another strange volume and open interest day. One thing is clear, there is a shift in ownership. Dow takes a rally break as expected, 26,754 and up only 27 with the bonds up 3 tics in a quiet day, 140.11.
9/20
Corn back over 350 to 352 1/2, plus 6 3/4. Wheat struggled to get 1 1/2 higher, 524. Beans pop another 20 1/4 to 850 1/4 where they finally found some sellers. Rice up 8 to 987 1/2 with nearly 900 more mostly November futures changing hands and no movement in open interest. Pay attention. A price thing worth noting, although we are too early most likely for this to apply right now, but all these grain shorts really have to pay to get out, don't they? And the computers that run the show are smarter now than ever and might be telling the algo guys to wake up. Again, early advise, but store it a few weeks and bring it to the front of your mind again when the crop is in the bin. Dow up another 265 points to 26,727, but tomorrow is Friday, a spec long is up over 600 points on the week, and bonds didn't play today, actually gaining 11 tics to 140.08. Me thinks its time to ring that register.
Corn back over 350 to 352 1/2, plus 6 3/4. Wheat struggled to get 1 1/2 higher, 524. Beans pop another 20 1/4 to 850 1/4 where they finally found some sellers. Rice up 8 to 987 1/2 with nearly 900 more mostly November futures changing hands and no movement in open interest. Pay attention. A price thing worth noting, although we are too early most likely for this to apply right now, but all these grain shorts really have to pay to get out, don't they? And the computers that run the show are smarter now than ever and might be telling the algo guys to wake up. Again, early advise, but store it a few weeks and bring it to the front of your mind again when the crop is in the bin. Dow up another 265 points to 26,727, but tomorrow is Friday, a spec long is up over 600 points on the week, and bonds didn't play today, actually gaining 11 tics to 140.08. Me thinks its time to ring that register.
9/19
Wednesday bounce for the grains. This is just the computers jockeying for where the harvest lows will be set. Big crops, so I still recommend ignoring the day to day, down and up trade right now and get the crop in. Corn up 2 1/2 to 345 3/4 as I believe it will continue to be a struggle for the bears to push too far away from 350 without a significant increase in their short commitment, which would only set up a bear trap for them anyway. Beans up 16 to 830 because, who even really wants to sell 830. Wheat up 12, closing 522 1/2. Rice bear hit again, down another quarter a hundred, 979 1/2. Computers are short and might have a commercial selling very late in the game. Wouldn't be the first time, but it does make one scratch their head as to who is calling the shots. Bonds off another 23 tics, 139.29, and that lets the dow run up 161 to 26,462.
Wednesday bounce for the grains. This is just the computers jockeying for where the harvest lows will be set. Big crops, so I still recommend ignoring the day to day, down and up trade right now and get the crop in. Corn up 2 1/2 to 345 3/4 as I believe it will continue to be a struggle for the bears to push too far away from 350 without a significant increase in their short commitment, which would only set up a bear trap for them anyway. Beans up 16 to 830 because, who even really wants to sell 830. Wheat up 12, closing 522 1/2. Rice bear hit again, down another quarter a hundred, 979 1/2. Computers are short and might have a commercial selling very late in the game. Wouldn't be the first time, but it does make one scratch their head as to who is calling the shots. Bonds off another 23 tics, 139.29, and that lets the dow run up 161 to 26,462.
9/18
Harvest is clipping along nicely, and the path of least resistance for now is down, so don't fight the trend, and just focus on getting the crop in. Time will fix the rest. Corn off 4 3/4 to settle 343 1/4. Beans lose 9 1/2 on their quest to print a 7, close at 814. Wheat tired of selling and got a 4 1/4 pop to 510 1/2. Remember the big picture here that higher wheat prices discourage feeding vs corn. That's a global story. And good long term for corn. Rice bear at it again, although it was on a lot more volume, 1004 1/2, minus 25 1/2. I very much appreciate the time my rice clients have spent these last couple of days riding me around in the combines. Definitely my favorite part of the year. Hope we have laid in place the next few months ideas. Dow up 199 to 26,301 and the bonds drop a full point, 140.20. I like this financial action as it shows the big money players are more comfortable with US economics, tariffs or not.
Harvest is clipping along nicely, and the path of least resistance for now is down, so don't fight the trend, and just focus on getting the crop in. Time will fix the rest. Corn off 4 3/4 to settle 343 1/4. Beans lose 9 1/2 on their quest to print a 7, close at 814. Wheat tired of selling and got a 4 1/4 pop to 510 1/2. Remember the big picture here that higher wheat prices discourage feeding vs corn. That's a global story. And good long term for corn. Rice bear at it again, although it was on a lot more volume, 1004 1/2, minus 25 1/2. I very much appreciate the time my rice clients have spent these last couple of days riding me around in the combines. Definitely my favorite part of the year. Hope we have laid in place the next few months ideas. Dow up 199 to 26,301 and the bonds drop a full point, 140.20. I like this financial action as it shows the big money players are more comfortable with US economics, tariffs or not.
9/17
Good weekend for harvest, and expected harvest pressure for Monday. Corn off 3 3/4 to 348. Beans drop 7 to 823 1/2 with another day of weak meal trade. Wheat loses 5 1/4 to settle 506 1/4. Rice harvest in Arkansas is in full swing, with selling pressure driving futures down another 19 cents, 1030. Iceberg buyer seems to get filled up each day, and fades to the sidelines. One day the selling wont win, but it doesn't look like that day is anytime near. Switching to December contracts for the financials, Dow off 83 points, 26,102, while the bonds fade 4 tic, 141.20.
Good weekend for harvest, and expected harvest pressure for Monday. Corn off 3 3/4 to 348. Beans drop 7 to 823 1/2 with another day of weak meal trade. Wheat loses 5 1/4 to settle 506 1/4. Rice harvest in Arkansas is in full swing, with selling pressure driving futures down another 19 cents, 1030. Iceberg buyer seems to get filled up each day, and fades to the sidelines. One day the selling wont win, but it doesn't look like that day is anytime near. Switching to December contracts for the financials, Dow off 83 points, 26,102, while the bonds fade 4 tic, 141.20.
9/14
Corn held up well in the face of strong harvest pressure and a solid harvest weekend, 1 1/4 higher, 351 3/4. Beans gave up 2 3/4 to 830 1/2, but again a solid close given the time of year and a weak meal market Friday. Wheat bouncing ball lands solidly on black, plus 14 1/2 to 511 1/2. We supposedly didn't get a piece of the Iraq tender, and the iceberg buyer was absent, letting rice fall 28 to 1049. Looks like trade wants to see who will dance at $4.50. Dow off 2, settling 26,158. Bonds lose 20 tics to 142.17. Go Hogs!!!
Corn held up well in the face of strong harvest pressure and a solid harvest weekend, 1 1/4 higher, 351 3/4. Beans gave up 2 3/4 to 830 1/2, but again a solid close given the time of year and a weak meal market Friday. Wheat bouncing ball lands solidly on black, plus 14 1/2 to 511 1/2. We supposedly didn't get a piece of the Iraq tender, and the iceberg buyer was absent, letting rice fall 28 to 1049. Looks like trade wants to see who will dance at $4.50. Dow off 2, settling 26,158. Bonds lose 20 tics to 142.17. Go Hogs!!!
9/13
Big green and red machines chewing up the corn as I drove south on 55 from Chicago today, and farther north than I expected. Big increase in the spec short these last two days and corn is now at the midpoint of the USDA ideas if you believe their production number. 350 1/2, minus 2 cents. Wheat casino has been hard on the bulls, off another 9 3/4 to 497. Beans gave back most of yesterday with nothing fresh out of DC and nothing stellar about cash, 833 1/4, off 6 3/4. Rice iceberg around all day and a 2 cent gain after a solid pop and fizzle, 1077. Dow up 146 to 26,160 and the bonds gained 3 tic to close 143.05
Big green and red machines chewing up the corn as I drove south on 55 from Chicago today, and farther north than I expected. Big increase in the spec short these last two days and corn is now at the midpoint of the USDA ideas if you believe their production number. 350 1/2, minus 2 cents. Wheat casino has been hard on the bulls, off another 9 3/4 to 497. Beans gave back most of yesterday with nothing fresh out of DC and nothing stellar about cash, 833 1/4, off 6 3/4. Rice iceberg around all day and a 2 cent gain after a solid pop and fizzle, 1077. Dow up 146 to 26,160 and the bonds gained 3 tic to close 143.05
9/12
Pretty bloody report to corn with a 181.3 bu. yield. If you believe that number, its going to be potentially a long winter. I think its high. Managed money now has a bunch of new corn shorts at about 355, so they don't have a ton of profit yet. 352 1/2 close, off 14 1/4, and I suspect overdone. Tomorrow will tell. Wheat had a nothing report and the stronger global numbers for all the grains are on the back of India production and sales. My long term money isn't quite as trusting that they will feed the world. Wheat ultimately followed corn down 12 cents, 506 3/4. Beans came in slightly below my 870 at 845 and there is new china tariff talks in the works, so we picked up 8 1/4 to 840. Rice decline in carry in as expected was more than offset by more acres and bigger production. If we didn't have a pretty good shot at new sales to one of the 4 horsemen, rice would have taken it on the chin, so you can believe there is a good probability that business is being done. you will know when they have covered all they want, and not a second before. 1075 close. Its the governments job to give us numbers, and our job to dispute them, Problem is that they can make adjustments after the ship has sailed, so if you cant afford to store and wait it out, you lose. Dow up 12 to 26,014 and bonds gain 10 tics, 143.02
Pretty bloody report to corn with a 181.3 bu. yield. If you believe that number, its going to be potentially a long winter. I think its high. Managed money now has a bunch of new corn shorts at about 355, so they don't have a ton of profit yet. 352 1/2 close, off 14 1/4, and I suspect overdone. Tomorrow will tell. Wheat had a nothing report and the stronger global numbers for all the grains are on the back of India production and sales. My long term money isn't quite as trusting that they will feed the world. Wheat ultimately followed corn down 12 cents, 506 3/4. Beans came in slightly below my 870 at 845 and there is new china tariff talks in the works, so we picked up 8 1/4 to 840. Rice decline in carry in as expected was more than offset by more acres and bigger production. If we didn't have a pretty good shot at new sales to one of the 4 horsemen, rice would have taken it on the chin, so you can believe there is a good probability that business is being done. you will know when they have covered all they want, and not a second before. 1075 close. Its the governments job to give us numbers, and our job to dispute them, Problem is that they can make adjustments after the ship has sailed, so if you cant afford to store and wait it out, you lose. Dow up 12 to 26,014 and bonds gain 10 tics, 143.02
9/11
Another steady pre report day in corn 366 3/4, off 1/2. Beans lose 13 1/2 to 831 3/4 as the big crop is getting bigger talk continues, and I think new shorts being added. Meal only gave up a couple bucks and meal is what runs the bean show for the foreseeable future. Wheat roulette wheel landed red today, off 9 1/2 to 518 3/4. Rice iceberg buyer seemed to get a little full and the selling kept coming to push us down 17 cents, 1175. We are in no mans land for pricing right now, with a fair amount of air on either side going into the report and large options activity being done out of sight of the common man, so be aware that we could have a sharp move on very little change today when the WASDE dance begins. For all grains, keep in mind that these numbers will only affect trade for about 30 minutes, and we are no longer the supermarket to the world, so you better pay closer attention to global numbers and currencies. I will send out a private pre report note in just a few. Dow probes the downside but climbs to 26,002, plus 97 with a weaker bond trade, 142.24, down 24 tics.
Another steady pre report day in corn 366 3/4, off 1/2. Beans lose 13 1/2 to 831 3/4 as the big crop is getting bigger talk continues, and I think new shorts being added. Meal only gave up a couple bucks and meal is what runs the bean show for the foreseeable future. Wheat roulette wheel landed red today, off 9 1/2 to 518 3/4. Rice iceberg buyer seemed to get a little full and the selling kept coming to push us down 17 cents, 1175. We are in no mans land for pricing right now, with a fair amount of air on either side going into the report and large options activity being done out of sight of the common man, so be aware that we could have a sharp move on very little change today when the WASDE dance begins. For all grains, keep in mind that these numbers will only affect trade for about 30 minutes, and we are no longer the supermarket to the world, so you better pay closer attention to global numbers and currencies. I will send out a private pre report note in just a few. Dow probes the downside but climbs to 26,002, plus 97 with a weaker bond trade, 142.24, down 24 tics.
9/10
Corn in a relatively small range and up 1/4 to close 367 1/4. Same with the beans, 845 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Wheat casino lands on an obvious black for the day, up 17 cents to 528 1/4, as global supply stories were the tool to herd the cattle for the day. Rice off 3 to 1092 as a short cover iceberg buyer is met by what looks like farmer selling. Don't see much below the iceberg, and I don't know if tomorrows bullish report will be bullish enough for rice, so some prudent pricing might not be a bad idea. Someone was buying puts and financing the trade selling calls, which is new. Dow off 54 in a listless and soft trade, 25,905. Bonds gain 5 tics to 143.16. Lots of grain position evening before the 9/12 WASDE report, so try not to over read the trade today.
Corn in a relatively small range and up 1/4 to close 367 1/4. Same with the beans, 845 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Wheat casino lands on an obvious black for the day, up 17 cents to 528 1/4, as global supply stories were the tool to herd the cattle for the day. Rice off 3 to 1092 as a short cover iceberg buyer is met by what looks like farmer selling. Don't see much below the iceberg, and I don't know if tomorrows bullish report will be bullish enough for rice, so some prudent pricing might not be a bad idea. Someone was buying puts and financing the trade selling calls, which is new. Dow off 54 in a listless and soft trade, 25,905. Bonds gain 5 tics to 143.16. Lots of grain position evening before the 9/12 WASDE report, so try not to over read the trade today.
9/07
Friday trade looked lower but mostly recovered, with corn 3/4 higher, 367. Beans up 4 3/4 to 844. Wheat closed off 2 1/2 cents, 511 1/4 but off the lows. September rice put to bed, and November up 7 to 1095. Dow drifts 66 lower, 25,959, and the bonds lose a point and a tic to 143.11.
Friday trade looked lower but mostly recovered, with corn 3/4 higher, 367. Beans up 4 3/4 to 844. Wheat closed off 2 1/2 cents, 511 1/4 but off the lows. September rice put to bed, and November up 7 to 1095. Dow drifts 66 lower, 25,959, and the bonds lose a point and a tic to 143.11.
9/6
Wheat landed on red for the third time in a row, 513 3/4, off 8. Who will bet on tomorrows wheel? Corn up a penny to 366 1/4 and beans up 1 1/4 to 839 1/4. Same stories getting boring, so something new should be manufactured by Monday to poke you out of boredom. Duke and Duke don't get paid if you don't play the game. Rice up 7 to settle 1088 and getting close to new crop pricing objectives, with the options boys taking a day off. Dow closes 26,025, plus 52 and bonds gain 16 tics to 144.12. A take a day off trading session all for all, so don't overthink it.
Wheat landed on red for the third time in a row, 513 3/4, off 8. Who will bet on tomorrows wheel? Corn up a penny to 366 1/4 and beans up 1 1/4 to 839 1/4. Same stories getting boring, so something new should be manufactured by Monday to poke you out of boredom. Duke and Duke don't get paid if you don't play the game. Rice up 7 to settle 1088 and getting close to new crop pricing objectives, with the options boys taking a day off. Dow closes 26,025, plus 52 and bonds gain 16 tics to 144.12. A take a day off trading session all for all, so don't overthink it.
9/5
Grains settled weak on the day across the board. Corn in a back and fill mode, off 3 1/4 to365 1/4. Beans drop 6 1/4 to 838. Wheat computer churn machine landed on red today, 521 3/4, off 9 3/4. Do for a green day there tomorrow, if only on a gambling basis. Rice down 2 1/2 to 1081 with sept open interest almost completely matched up in two days. It will be interesting to see if now that the wash has been rinsed, will the commercials do their job and keep September an honest market. Another 150 calls bought from the floor today, placing the spec over 1000 contracts, most with no meat on the bone until at least $12. Dow off 12 points to settle 25,973, and the bonds trade scratch, 143.28. Although we will have big grain crops this year, I will offer a glimmer of hope. We are no longer the super market to the world, and the world trade is dependent on production from countries who are politically not motivating their farmers to produce. Current pricing is not motivating us to up production next year, and we are past due for a break from trend line yields. Next time the computers want to run the market, I wont be too quick to stand in the way. But that is going to take some patience, and probably a friendly banker.
Grains settled weak on the day across the board. Corn in a back and fill mode, off 3 1/4 to365 1/4. Beans drop 6 1/4 to 838. Wheat computer churn machine landed on red today, 521 3/4, off 9 3/4. Do for a green day there tomorrow, if only on a gambling basis. Rice down 2 1/2 to 1081 with sept open interest almost completely matched up in two days. It will be interesting to see if now that the wash has been rinsed, will the commercials do their job and keep September an honest market. Another 150 calls bought from the floor today, placing the spec over 1000 contracts, most with no meat on the bone until at least $12. Dow off 12 points to settle 25,973, and the bonds trade scratch, 143.28. Although we will have big grain crops this year, I will offer a glimmer of hope. We are no longer the super market to the world, and the world trade is dependent on production from countries who are politically not motivating their farmers to produce. Current pricing is not motivating us to up production next year, and we are past due for a break from trend line yields. Next time the computers want to run the market, I wont be too quick to stand in the way. But that is going to take some patience, and probably a friendly banker.
9/4
Hope everyone had a great long holiday weekend. Tuesday trade had continuation buying in the corn, 3 1/4 higher to close 368 1/4. Would expect some back filling today. Wheat yo-yo down 14, 531 1/2. Beans up 3/4 to 844 1/4. Meal gained 4 bucks and oats lost 6 cents. Argentina export taxes in place, and taxes once granted to the government are hard to take away. Sept rice open interest is down to 240 as the much vaulted spread squeeze in the retail sector fizzles and the even bid gets filled up late. 1083 1/2, up a half cent. Frankly surprised we aren't getting more of a short term pop on the rain hitting the delta, but the truth is that baring a week long deluge, we have a good and big crop that isn't well covered, and coop fears that can be capitalized on. That doesn't happen normally to the up side. Dow churns, but ends off only 3 tics, 25,985. Bonds had the first big move in a while, off a point and t tics to 143.28. That's still a solid 20 points above where I would put fair value in the fed world., but the market is global.
Hope everyone had a great long holiday weekend. Tuesday trade had continuation buying in the corn, 3 1/4 higher to close 368 1/4. Would expect some back filling today. Wheat yo-yo down 14, 531 1/2. Beans up 3/4 to 844 1/4. Meal gained 4 bucks and oats lost 6 cents. Argentina export taxes in place, and taxes once granted to the government are hard to take away. Sept rice open interest is down to 240 as the much vaulted spread squeeze in the retail sector fizzles and the even bid gets filled up late. 1083 1/2, up a half cent. Frankly surprised we aren't getting more of a short term pop on the rain hitting the delta, but the truth is that baring a week long deluge, we have a good and big crop that isn't well covered, and coop fears that can be capitalized on. That doesn't happen normally to the up side. Dow churns, but ends off only 3 tics, 25,985. Bonds had the first big move in a while, off a point and t tics to 143.28. That's still a solid 20 points above where I would put fair value in the fed world., but the market is global.
8/31
Friday trade saw strength in all the grains. Corn rejecting the 360 sellers to close 365, up 8 1/2. Wheat yo-yo computers pulling up to 545 1/2, plus 10 1/2. Meal not wanting to operate below $300 and providing support for beans, 12 higher for a 843 1/2 settle. Rice spreads firm to even but with only 400 open interest left in sept, any squeeze from here would be for logistical reasons, not real demand in my eyes, and I don't believe the commercials very much like the rice market to not be at carry. 1083, up 12 cents. There was tax talk involving our grain exporting competitors, both in SA and Russia. That is the kind of overnight fuel that can feed a fire in corn and wheat in this coming marketing year, so don't run your numbers as a static event this year, but also with tax/tariff and currency considerations. These will be much bigger factors this year if my read is correct. Bonds trade scratch, 144.31, and the dow goes off 22 lower, 25,988.
Friday trade saw strength in all the grains. Corn rejecting the 360 sellers to close 365, up 8 1/2. Wheat yo-yo computers pulling up to 545 1/2, plus 10 1/2. Meal not wanting to operate below $300 and providing support for beans, 12 higher for a 843 1/2 settle. Rice spreads firm to even but with only 400 open interest left in sept, any squeeze from here would be for logistical reasons, not real demand in my eyes, and I don't believe the commercials very much like the rice market to not be at carry. 1083, up 12 cents. There was tax talk involving our grain exporting competitors, both in SA and Russia. That is the kind of overnight fuel that can feed a fire in corn and wheat in this coming marketing year, so don't run your numbers as a static event this year, but also with tax/tariff and currency considerations. These will be much bigger factors this year if my read is correct. Bonds trade scratch, 144.31, and the dow goes off 22 lower, 25,988.
8/30
I found something to like in each of the export numbers, and the market started with some traction, but end of month selling pressure took over to take away any steam. Switching to December for corn and wheat, with corn in a quiet unchanged day, 356 1/2. Wheat computer churn on, 535, minus 6 3/4 but really the wheel just landed on red today. Expect green tomorrow. Nov beans off 4 1/2 to 831 1/2, and new shorts accumulating. This could be the story all the way to the 12th if they want , but then we will have built the perfect sell the rumor, buy the fact report. Nov rice off 15 1/2 to 1071 as the bidder didn't stand strong, stops washed out the market, and then an iceberg buyer held us at 1070 late.. New deliveries out of Southern, a feeble number, but who really wants green rice? Dow off 137 to 26,010 and bonds gain 12 tics to 144.31. Bonds are just refusing to roll over.
I found something to like in each of the export numbers, and the market started with some traction, but end of month selling pressure took over to take away any steam. Switching to December for corn and wheat, with corn in a quiet unchanged day, 356 1/2. Wheat computer churn on, 535, minus 6 3/4 but really the wheel just landed on red today. Expect green tomorrow. Nov beans off 4 1/2 to 831 1/2, and new shorts accumulating. This could be the story all the way to the 12th if they want , but then we will have built the perfect sell the rumor, buy the fact report. Nov rice off 15 1/2 to 1071 as the bidder didn't stand strong, stops washed out the market, and then an iceberg buyer held us at 1070 late.. New deliveries out of Southern, a feeble number, but who really wants green rice? Dow off 137 to 26,010 and bonds gain 12 tics to 144.31. Bonds are just refusing to roll over.
8/29
Winding down the liquidation before deliveries early in this cycle for the grains, with corn stable and up 1/4 to close 341 1/4. Beans up 2 3/4 to 823 1/4 as meal seems to be happy above $300. Wheat computers have fired again, up 17 1/2 to 515 3/4 as they had run all the spec longs out they could, so what the heck, lets troll to the upside for a few days. Get use to it, this will be a rinse and repeat story for a very long time in wheat. Rice spread caught a bid and we found a new buyer with some deep pockets and willing to put some money on the table. 1081, plus 21 1/2. Spreads compressed as farmer pricing showed by $11 in each month. The first 20-30 cents up were easy, not so much from here on without some outside buying, from one of the big 4 we have talked about. Dow up 62 to 26,147 and the bonds gain 5 tics, 144.19. Export sales in the morning.
Winding down the liquidation before deliveries early in this cycle for the grains, with corn stable and up 1/4 to close 341 1/4. Beans up 2 3/4 to 823 1/4 as meal seems to be happy above $300. Wheat computers have fired again, up 17 1/2 to 515 3/4 as they had run all the spec longs out they could, so what the heck, lets troll to the upside for a few days. Get use to it, this will be a rinse and repeat story for a very long time in wheat. Rice spread caught a bid and we found a new buyer with some deep pockets and willing to put some money on the table. 1081, plus 21 1/2. Spreads compressed as farmer pricing showed by $11 in each month. The first 20-30 cents up were easy, not so much from here on without some outside buying, from one of the big 4 we have talked about. Dow up 62 to 26,147 and the bonds gain 5 tics, 144.19. Export sales in the morning.
8/28
Corn saw wholesale long liquidation, with new shorts coming to the table as well, 341 and off 5 3/4. Bit of the same story in the beans, 14 1/4 lower, 820 1/2. Big difference in basis and business though. Wheat stabilizing at 498 1/4, off a penny, but still too many spec longs for my taste. Let the calendar, computers, and margin clerks do their job and the weak grain longs will all be herded out by Fridays close. Rice trying to paint a false reversal in my book 8 1/2 higher for a 1059 1/2 close, but facing back month selling to keep a lid, open interest down to 1100 in the sept to defuse a big squeeze, and coops that surly don't want to allow a futures rally if their clients are taking growers option. Dow bull needing fed, only up 8 to 26,085 with a less than stellar new high while bonds fade 22 tics to 144.14. I will still argue that if the global bankers really were drinking the equity Kool-Aid, bonds would be in the 120s.
Corn saw wholesale long liquidation, with new shorts coming to the table as well, 341 and off 5 3/4. Bit of the same story in the beans, 14 1/4 lower, 820 1/2. Big difference in basis and business though. Wheat stabilizing at 498 1/4, off a penny, but still too many spec longs for my taste. Let the calendar, computers, and margin clerks do their job and the weak grain longs will all be herded out by Fridays close. Rice trying to paint a false reversal in my book 8 1/2 higher for a 1059 1/2 close, but facing back month selling to keep a lid, open interest down to 1100 in the sept to defuse a big squeeze, and coops that surly don't want to allow a futures rally if their clients are taking growers option. Dow bull needing fed, only up 8 to 26,085 with a less than stellar new high while bonds fade 22 tics to 144.14. I will still argue that if the global bankers really were drinking the equity Kool-Aid, bonds would be in the 120s.
8/27
Strange in the rice that on Friday someone would exercise 1080 out of the money calls, buy 100 way out calls in Jan and march, and then simply not show at all today. Market gave them a chance to show their feathers, then punished for failure to appear. With Sept open interest now below 1500, its getting quite late for the much proclaimed squeeze to happen. Down 27 1/2 on the day, the spread getting spanked, and no volume to be found for support, rice closes 1051. Oats also drop without a net, with wheat suckers jumping off pre first notice as well, 499 1/4, down 15 1/2. Beans off 7 1/4 to 834 3/4, but with meal even weaker. Corn held as good as could be expected in the face of such a soft over all market, a loser of 1 3/4 to 346 3/4. Trump announced a deal with Mexico alone today, as we had suggested could happen on sept 16th. Canada will soon be in tow and fall in step, because this is really about auto, and Canada cannot afford to be left behind, figuratively or literally. Bean payment is $1.65 on half the crop, but capped at 125K. Rice farmers understand entities, but there will be a very quick education in the beans for the larger farmer across the Midwest.
Strange in the rice that on Friday someone would exercise 1080 out of the money calls, buy 100 way out calls in Jan and march, and then simply not show at all today. Market gave them a chance to show their feathers, then punished for failure to appear. With Sept open interest now below 1500, its getting quite late for the much proclaimed squeeze to happen. Down 27 1/2 on the day, the spread getting spanked, and no volume to be found for support, rice closes 1051. Oats also drop without a net, with wheat suckers jumping off pre first notice as well, 499 1/4, down 15 1/2. Beans off 7 1/4 to 834 3/4, but with meal even weaker. Corn held as good as could be expected in the face of such a soft over all market, a loser of 1 3/4 to 346 3/4. Trump announced a deal with Mexico alone today, as we had suggested could happen on sept 16th. Canada will soon be in tow and fall in step, because this is really about auto, and Canada cannot afford to be left behind, figuratively or literally. Bean payment is $1.65 on half the crop, but capped at 125K. Rice farmers understand entities, but there will be a very quick education in the beans for the larger farmer across the Midwest.
8/24
Options expiration held the markets in check Friday, as well as needing to digest Thursday trade. Corn up 1 3/4 to 348 1/2 and beans unchanged, 842. Wheat longs still exiting, 514 3/4, minus 7 1/4. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1078 1/2 to avoid a strike pin. Some shuffling going on out of common sight. Dow crept up 121 points to 25,792 while the bonds settle 145.19, off 2 tics.
Options expiration held the markets in check Friday, as well as needing to digest Thursday trade. Corn up 1 3/4 to 348 1/2 and beans unchanged, 842. Wheat longs still exiting, 514 3/4, minus 7 1/4. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1078 1/2 to avoid a strike pin. Some shuffling going on out of common sight. Dow crept up 121 points to 25,792 while the bonds settle 145.19, off 2 tics.
8/23
Meal took a solid hit today, and that reverberated thru the grains. 842 beans, off 16 1/4 . Corn down 5 3/4 to 346 3/4. Wheat off another 4 today to end at 522. Big crops getting bigger, and a bunch of new selling in the corn, added to the calendar approaching first notice next week. Margin clerks a few days ahead of delivery clerks, and nothing out of the park in exports make for the easiest path being down for now. Most buyers figure the price will be soft for another week, and I cant argue without some outside help. Sept rice unchanged, 1080 and some of the same pressures stated above about to knock on that contracts door as well. Hard to believe the trade is afraid of 35 receipts, but it may not take too much to call a bluff. Dow off 46 to 25,671 and bonds gain 6 tics to 145.21.
Meal took a solid hit today, and that reverberated thru the grains. 842 beans, off 16 1/4 . Corn down 5 3/4 to 346 3/4. Wheat off another 4 today to end at 522. Big crops getting bigger, and a bunch of new selling in the corn, added to the calendar approaching first notice next week. Margin clerks a few days ahead of delivery clerks, and nothing out of the park in exports make for the easiest path being down for now. Most buyers figure the price will be soft for another week, and I cant argue without some outside help. Sept rice unchanged, 1080 and some of the same pressures stated above about to knock on that contracts door as well. Hard to believe the trade is afraid of 35 receipts, but it may not take too much to call a bluff. Dow off 46 to 25,671 and bonds gain 6 tics to 145.21.
8/22
Wheat started lower, but was out of steam after yesterdays churn trade, chopped around and settled 526, off 1 1/4. Beans took a bigger hit, minus 16 1/4, 858 1/4, as cash is moving slowly, meal is softening, and talk of a $1.65 a bushel from President Trump to help the farmer past Chinas antics. Sept rice spread squeeze moving forward and big flat price short covering helped drive a 26 cent long grain gain, 1080. Dow off 90 to 25,717 and bonds up 11 tics to 145.15.
Wheat started lower, but was out of steam after yesterdays churn trade, chopped around and settled 526, off 1 1/4. Beans took a bigger hit, minus 16 1/4, 858 1/4, as cash is moving slowly, meal is softening, and talk of a $1.65 a bushel from President Trump to help the farmer past Chinas antics. Sept rice spread squeeze moving forward and big flat price short covering helped drive a 26 cent long grain gain, 1080. Dow off 90 to 25,717 and bonds up 11 tics to 145.15.
8/21
Wheat sucker punch lower as bottom pickers get caught by the computers, 15 lower to 527 1/4. For short bursts, these markets will all be going lower, and higher, than reasonable because the systems are playing your emotions, and emotions are high right now. Corn off 2 1/4 to 359 3/4 and the bears want to see if selling dries up or continues as we walk back fro 380 in the Dec. Same story in the beans, with some well timed rains to boot, 874 1/2, down 7 1/4. Sept rice squeeze has started, with sept up 27 1/2 to 1054, and the spread gaining. Don't drink the Kool-Aid that this will be a repeat of the July squeeze. Dow up 49 points, 25,807, and bonds drop 11 tics, 145.04.
Wheat sucker punch lower as bottom pickers get caught by the computers, 15 lower to 527 1/4. For short bursts, these markets will all be going lower, and higher, than reasonable because the systems are playing your emotions, and emotions are high right now. Corn off 2 1/4 to 359 3/4 and the bears want to see if selling dries up or continues as we walk back fro 380 in the Dec. Same story in the beans, with some well timed rains to boot, 874 1/2, down 7 1/4. Sept rice squeeze has started, with sept up 27 1/2 to 1054, and the spread gaining. Don't drink the Kool-Aid that this will be a repeat of the July squeeze. Dow up 49 points, 25,807, and bonds drop 11 tics, 145.04.
8/20
Wheat churn trade continues, and I cant stress enough that even though you may not trade wheat, pay attention to its action so you can better understand what you are competing with as you price your crops, and how computers can cost you a lot of money if you don't understand how they affect prices, or make you a lot of money if you do. 18 1/4 lower, right back to 542 1/4. Beans settle 1/4 higher, 881 1/4, but at the bottom of a disappointing trading day. Corn off 2 1/4 to 362 in the middle of the range. DTNs digital crop tour isn't as bearish as USDA, but it is a new and admittedly developing system. Rice tests below the $10 mark on under 100 sells to start the morning, but bids thru the day push us back to 1026 1/2, off 8 1/2. Dow up 84 to 25,758, and bonds might have had the blow off top rally of 30 more tics to 145.15.
Wheat churn trade continues, and I cant stress enough that even though you may not trade wheat, pay attention to its action so you can better understand what you are competing with as you price your crops, and how computers can cost you a lot of money if you don't understand how they affect prices, or make you a lot of money if you do. 18 1/4 lower, right back to 542 1/4. Beans settle 1/4 higher, 881 1/4, but at the bottom of a disappointing trading day. Corn off 2 1/4 to 362 in the middle of the range. DTNs digital crop tour isn't as bearish as USDA, but it is a new and admittedly developing system. Rice tests below the $10 mark on under 100 sells to start the morning, but bids thru the day push us back to 1026 1/2, off 8 1/2. Dow up 84 to 25,758, and bonds might have had the blow off top rally of 30 more tics to 145.15.
8/17
Back and forth corn trade to end the week, closing off a penny, 364 1/4. Wheat put on a show on its own today, gaining 18 1/4 to 560 1/2. Global bias is up, but don't get suckered into the trap of rallies are meant to be owned. In wheat, rallies like this now are shutting down the perma bear programs, because spikes this big overtake the easy money full carry spread roll trade, but don't kid yourself, the longs burden is still hugely hampered by carry. Meal was a weak link Friday, but the beans managed to bounce a dime off the lows to close 881 1/2, down 4 and not a bad showing at all given no new China announcements. Dead day in rice to end the week, 1035, off 11, with orderly spread roll. With positive Mexico and Iraq announcements, you would have expected a lot more love. Dow tried to set back from Thursdays trade, but bulls stepped in to lead us 82 higher, 25,674. Best money this week was probably made in an index. Bonds settle near the low of the day, but still unchanged at a solid 144.17. Bonds are telling the rest of the financial world that its not all rainbows and unicorns, but this week, no one is listening, Across the whole realm, the strong dollar is starting to worry me most.
Back and forth corn trade to end the week, closing off a penny, 364 1/4. Wheat put on a show on its own today, gaining 18 1/4 to 560 1/2. Global bias is up, but don't get suckered into the trap of rallies are meant to be owned. In wheat, rallies like this now are shutting down the perma bear programs, because spikes this big overtake the easy money full carry spread roll trade, but don't kid yourself, the longs burden is still hugely hampered by carry. Meal was a weak link Friday, but the beans managed to bounce a dime off the lows to close 881 1/2, down 4 and not a bad showing at all given no new China announcements. Dead day in rice to end the week, 1035, off 11, with orderly spread roll. With positive Mexico and Iraq announcements, you would have expected a lot more love. Dow tried to set back from Thursdays trade, but bulls stepped in to lead us 82 higher, 25,674. Best money this week was probably made in an index. Bonds settle near the low of the day, but still unchanged at a solid 144.17. Bonds are telling the rest of the financial world that its not all rainbows and unicorns, but this week, no one is listening, Across the whole realm, the strong dollar is starting to worry me most.
8/16
China, China, China. That is the story. At least on the surface, and the surface story is what drives daily trade. Just below the surface, Mexico is in DC as we speak trying to hammer out a deal before the new socialist president takes office, and would have to honor at least some of the rhetoric spewed during his election. Canada is sitting on the sidelines but wishing to not be the last to come to the table, and by my guess worried about what the US and Mexico could do without them. And that is a lot. China will be here next week, but given that we can use phones and emails and texts, I think all three are at the table now, its just virtual. Corn up 3 3/4 to 365 1/4 and Dec is trying to chew through 380-385 resistance. Wheat up a dime as the computer churn continues, 542 1/4. Beans put on the bull show, basically because they had the easiest path up from the hole, 885 1/2, plus 28. Rice up another 13 1/2 to 1046 as the dip below $10 has been rejected, at least until we get to first notice. Dow up 405 on strong Walmart earnings and a rejection of the lows set the day before, 25,592. Bonds only off 7 tics in all this noise, 144.17, and that statement right there my friends, is the canary in the coal mine to me.
China, China, China. That is the story. At least on the surface, and the surface story is what drives daily trade. Just below the surface, Mexico is in DC as we speak trying to hammer out a deal before the new socialist president takes office, and would have to honor at least some of the rhetoric spewed during his election. Canada is sitting on the sidelines but wishing to not be the last to come to the table, and by my guess worried about what the US and Mexico could do without them. And that is a lot. China will be here next week, but given that we can use phones and emails and texts, I think all three are at the table now, its just virtual. Corn up 3 3/4 to 365 1/4 and Dec is trying to chew through 380-385 resistance. Wheat up a dime as the computer churn continues, 542 1/4. Beans put on the bull show, basically because they had the easiest path up from the hole, 885 1/2, plus 28. Rice up another 13 1/2 to 1046 as the dip below $10 has been rejected, at least until we get to first notice. Dow up 405 on strong Walmart earnings and a rejection of the lows set the day before, 25,592. Bonds only off 7 tics in all this noise, 144.17, and that statement right there my friends, is the canary in the coal mine to me.
8/15
Corn off 3/4 cent is a quiet and stable trade, 361 1/2. Business, both now and forward seems to be willing to work here. Wheat down 9 1/2 in a Tuesday/Wednesday churn, 532 1/4. Beans give up Tuesdays gain with a soft meal market in the background, 857 1/2, down 10 3/4. Rice did indeed test below $10, found some buying, and had a solid bounce to 1032 1/2, plus 13. Will be watching the rice market for follow thru buying today, but don't get your hopes too high. Dow off 300 during the day, but closes off 107 points, 25,187. Bonds risk off trade still in effect, 23 tics to the good, 144.24.
Corn off 3/4 cent is a quiet and stable trade, 361 1/2. Business, both now and forward seems to be willing to work here. Wheat down 9 1/2 in a Tuesday/Wednesday churn, 532 1/4. Beans give up Tuesdays gain with a soft meal market in the background, 857 1/2, down 10 3/4. Rice did indeed test below $10, found some buying, and had a solid bounce to 1032 1/2, plus 13. Will be watching the rice market for follow thru buying today, but don't get your hopes too high. Dow off 300 during the day, but closes off 107 points, 25,187. Bonds risk off trade still in effect, 23 tics to the good, 144.24.
8/14
Monday/ Tuesday wheat trade, up 8 1/4 to 541 3/4. Corn was the leaded in my eyes, gaining 5 3/4 to 362 1/4 but pushing up near some December resistance on the highs. Strong meal, as always it seems this year, gave the beans a bid to lean on, and rewards the long for 11 cents, 868 1/4. Rice bear computer program is pushing for a look below $10, and with a growing short open interest and long liquidation, I would almost expect it. 1019 1/2, minus 11. Dow up 79 in a small and possibly short lived bounce, 25,294, and the bonds off 9 tics to 144.01 in a quiet, listless trade.
Monday/ Tuesday wheat trade, up 8 1/4 to 541 3/4. Corn was the leaded in my eyes, gaining 5 3/4 to 362 1/4 but pushing up near some December resistance on the highs. Strong meal, as always it seems this year, gave the beans a bid to lean on, and rewards the long for 11 cents, 868 1/4. Rice bear computer program is pushing for a look below $10, and with a growing short open interest and long liquidation, I would almost expect it. 1019 1/2, minus 11. Dow up 79 in a small and possibly short lived bounce, 25,294, and the bonds off 9 tics to 144.01 in a quiet, listless trade.
8/13
Carry over selling to start the week, but with mixed results. Corn held well, off 1 1/4 to 356 1/2 and probably at support levels that will take some work for the bears to work thru. Wheat keeps the bear train rolling, down 13 1/4 to 533 1/2. Not sure if we get a Monday/Tuesday type trade, so will just have top watch. Meal held solid and put up gains, which gave beans a footing to 857 1/4, 6 1/2 higher. Rice bear computer system is in full sell mode, off another 24 1/2 to 1030 1/2, and the commercials have no reason to help the farmer make a living wage on this crop for now. Solid hedges should help pay the bills as we store this crop and await new crop business on the river. Dow fears continue, with futures off 116 to 25,215 and bonds slipping 11 tics to 144.10. I drove over 1300 miles of familiar roads this weekend, and I can say that this is a solid crop, there is some stressed corn out there, the bean plants are exceptionally large, but that doesn't translate necessarily into a bumper bean crop. Time will tell if we have the records the USDA is projecting, but Id be surprised if they could get much if any bigger than what is on the books today.
Carry over selling to start the week, but with mixed results. Corn held well, off 1 1/4 to 356 1/2 and probably at support levels that will take some work for the bears to work thru. Wheat keeps the bear train rolling, down 13 1/4 to 533 1/2. Not sure if we get a Monday/Tuesday type trade, so will just have top watch. Meal held solid and put up gains, which gave beans a footing to 857 1/4, 6 1/2 higher. Rice bear computer system is in full sell mode, off another 24 1/2 to 1030 1/2, and the commercials have no reason to help the farmer make a living wage on this crop for now. Solid hedges should help pay the bills as we store this crop and await new crop business on the river. Dow fears continue, with futures off 116 to 25,215 and bonds slipping 11 tics to 144.10. I drove over 1300 miles of familiar roads this weekend, and I can say that this is a solid crop, there is some stressed corn out there, the bean plants are exceptionally large, but that doesn't translate necessarily into a bumper bean crop. Time will tell if we have the records the USDA is projecting, but Id be surprised if they could get much if any bigger than what is on the books today.
8/10
Depending on the grain, mildly to very bearish WASDE report brought out the sellers in force. Add to the bearish report a flight to quality and off risk trade in the equities and financials, and new trouble with Turkey and a potential unmasking of the EU banking system. Not a bad time to find a safe haven. Mega yield in beans lead to a 42 1/4 drop to 850 3/4. Record corn yield projection masked solid demand and timid global restatements to allow for an 11 1/2 cent break. 357 3/4. Wheat does what wheat does best, break on almost anything, to 546 3/4, off 17 3/4. Apparently the new rice pipeline is 23, so 23 it is for this report, and that evoked no new selling, with rice weak in front of the report and a disbelieving trade after. 1055, down 19. Bonds rallied a point and 12 tics to 144.21 and the dow dropped 162 to 25,331 as flight to quality and fears of a bigger picture drop are moving forward in the money boys eyes.
Depending on the grain, mildly to very bearish WASDE report brought out the sellers in force. Add to the bearish report a flight to quality and off risk trade in the equities and financials, and new trouble with Turkey and a potential unmasking of the EU banking system. Not a bad time to find a safe haven. Mega yield in beans lead to a 42 1/4 drop to 850 3/4. Record corn yield projection masked solid demand and timid global restatements to allow for an 11 1/2 cent break. 357 3/4. Wheat does what wheat does best, break on almost anything, to 546 3/4, off 17 3/4. Apparently the new rice pipeline is 23, so 23 it is for this report, and that evoked no new selling, with rice weak in front of the report and a disbelieving trade after. 1055, down 19. Bonds rallied a point and 12 tics to 144.21 and the dow dropped 162 to 25,331 as flight to quality and fears of a bigger picture drop are moving forward in the money boys eyes.
8/09
More liquidation as we approach tomorrows report, and nothing in exports to get silly about today. Corn off a couple to 369 1/4. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 564 1/2 and beans shed 6 3/4 to 893. Rice tickled the lows below 1050 as expected, but found too much buying for the computers and the computer herded pukers to overcome, thus a rally to 1074, plus 9. 10% of September open interest liquidated on the day, and there is quite a few days left to first notice. Dow 43 lower, 25,493, and bonds gain 21 tics in what almost seemed like a sheepish flight to quality, 143.09. I don't know if this storm will quietly blow past or not, but the clouds have a different hue to them in my eyes.
More liquidation as we approach tomorrows report, and nothing in exports to get silly about today. Corn off a couple to 369 1/4. Wheat drops 5 1/2 to 564 1/2 and beans shed 6 3/4 to 893. Rice tickled the lows below 1050 as expected, but found too much buying for the computers and the computer herded pukers to overcome, thus a rally to 1074, plus 9. 10% of September open interest liquidated on the day, and there is quite a few days left to first notice. Dow 43 lower, 25,493, and bonds gain 21 tics in what almost seemed like a sheepish flight to quality, 143.09. I don't know if this storm will quietly blow past or not, but the clouds have a different hue to them in my eyes.
8/08
Oats firm again today, gaining 8 and putting on quite a show for a world awash in tariffs. Take note. Corn up 1/2 to 371 1/4 with another 17K of O.I. liquidation. Wheat gains 1 3/4 to 570. Meal stronger and beans up 4 1/2 as well, 899 3/4. Rice spread continues to march to carry and futures want to look below 10.50, but close 1065, off 26. Sidelines are easy in some grains, harder to get to in rice as people look to even up or exit before Fridays report. Dow off 64 to 25,536 and bonds gain a tic, 142.20. Export sales in the morning might have a surprise or two.
Oats firm again today, gaining 8 and putting on quite a show for a world awash in tariffs. Take note. Corn up 1/2 to 371 1/4 with another 17K of O.I. liquidation. Wheat gains 1 3/4 to 570. Meal stronger and beans up 4 1/2 as well, 899 3/4. Rice spread continues to march to carry and futures want to look below 10.50, but close 1065, off 26. Sidelines are easy in some grains, harder to get to in rice as people look to even up or exit before Fridays report. Dow off 64 to 25,536 and bonds gain a tic, 142.20. Export sales in the morning might have a surprise or two.
8/07
Corn stuck here for another day, 370 3/4, off 1/4. Drop in O.I. of 32K worth noting. Wheat gives back 6 1/4 to 568 1/4 as we are at a price that the bulls and bears each want to defend, or at least a price that makes each side a little more jumpy. Weaker bean conditions allow for a 12 1/2 cent rally to 895 1/4. November beans north of $9 need a story I'm afraid wont be printed this Friday. Three months ago I had expected a stiff break by now, and would be looking for a weather related long options play. As it stands, I'm more worried about a put play. Rice off another 36 1/2 in the sept as the U/X spread resets and the bulls fade. 1091. 250 spread rolls were a shock to the bulls who have thousands to do. Dow up 132 to 25,600 and bonds fade 21 tics to 142.19. Bonds are just stuck. About the time you think bonds are a dead trade, they bite you.
Corn stuck here for another day, 370 3/4, off 1/4. Drop in O.I. of 32K worth noting. Wheat gives back 6 1/4 to 568 1/4 as we are at a price that the bulls and bears each want to defend, or at least a price that makes each side a little more jumpy. Weaker bean conditions allow for a 12 1/2 cent rally to 895 1/4. November beans north of $9 need a story I'm afraid wont be printed this Friday. Three months ago I had expected a stiff break by now, and would be looking for a weather related long options play. As it stands, I'm more worried about a put play. Rice off another 36 1/2 in the sept as the U/X spread resets and the bulls fade. 1091. 250 spread rolls were a shock to the bulls who have thousands to do. Dow up 132 to 25,600 and bonds fade 21 tics to 142.19. Bonds are just stuck. About the time you think bonds are a dead trade, they bite you.
8/06
Oats blew up today on short covering. Wheat put on a show as well, 574 1/2 for a 18 1/4 cent gain. Corn finds a penny and a quarter, 371. Beans starting to sweat the report on the 10th, down 8 3/4 to 882 3/4. Rice continues the break, losing another 22 to 1127 1/2 and the spread back near even. Quiet financials lead to a 58 point higher dow close, 25,468 and bonds pick up 9 tics, 143.08. Buffett is sitting on more cash than most countries, and that is getting some of the bears stirred up.
Oats blew up today on short covering. Wheat put on a show as well, 574 1/2 for a 18 1/4 cent gain. Corn finds a penny and a quarter, 371. Beans starting to sweat the report on the 10th, down 8 3/4 to 882 3/4. Rice continues the break, losing another 22 to 1127 1/2 and the spread back near even. Quiet financials lead to a 58 point higher dow close, 25,468 and bonds pick up 9 tics, 143.08. Buffett is sitting on more cash than most countries, and that is getting some of the bears stirred up.
8/03
Friday trade was mostly just shuffling the deck. I would note that oats found a bid, and I like to watch, but not trade, oats. Corn up 3 to 369 3/4 and some pretty reasonable basis bids for new crop in a few Midwest points. Beans up 4 1/2 as well, 891 1/2. Wheat slips 4 1/4 to 556 1/4 as trade cleans up a little in front of the weekend. Rice off another 13 1/2, and a half a buck on the week, 1149 1/2. Will be interesting to see how Texas and Louisiana harvest progresses this weekend. Dow up 105 on a quiet news day, 25,410, and bonds gain 17 tics to 142.31.
Friday trade was mostly just shuffling the deck. I would note that oats found a bid, and I like to watch, but not trade, oats. Corn up 3 to 369 3/4 and some pretty reasonable basis bids for new crop in a few Midwest points. Beans up 4 1/2 as well, 891 1/2. Wheat slips 4 1/4 to 556 1/4 as trade cleans up a little in front of the weekend. Rice off another 13 1/2, and a half a buck on the week, 1149 1/2. Will be interesting to see how Texas and Louisiana harvest progresses this weekend. Dow up 105 on a quiet news day, 25,410, and bonds gain 17 tics to 142.31.
8/02
Corn closes 1 3/4 higher, 366 3/4, but 6 off the highs and another 20k of O.I. decline. Wheat up 2 1/4, 560 1/2, but 30 cents off the highs. Remember that there is a big hole above the close for the computers to play with, but that was ugly action for now. Expect some defense tomorrow. Beans settle 887, off 4 1/2 as players are distracted else where and right now its just really hard to spin a bull story. Nothing of note in exports. Rice finally tipped over as expected, with a spread buyer hitting raw selling in sept and no bids in November. Nov led the way, but the mold is broken. Sept futures close 1163, down 24 1/2. Dow broke a couple hundred but no real volume so it was easy to march back to 16 higher, 23,305. Thing to remember on this one is now there is an air gap below. Bonds up 7 tics, 142.14 in a nothing day.
Corn closes 1 3/4 higher, 366 3/4, but 6 off the highs and another 20k of O.I. decline. Wheat up 2 1/4, 560 1/2, but 30 cents off the highs. Remember that there is a big hole above the close for the computers to play with, but that was ugly action for now. Expect some defense tomorrow. Beans settle 887, off 4 1/2 as players are distracted else where and right now its just really hard to spin a bull story. Nothing of note in exports. Rice finally tipped over as expected, with a spread buyer hitting raw selling in sept and no bids in November. Nov led the way, but the mold is broken. Sept futures close 1163, down 24 1/2. Dow broke a couple hundred but no real volume so it was easy to march back to 16 higher, 23,305. Thing to remember on this one is now there is an air gap below. Bonds up 7 tics, 142.14 in a nothing day.
8/01
Corn sets back 7 1/4 to 365 with 20k of open interest liquidation. Beans lose 17 1/4 to 891 1/2 on 9500 drop in open interest, i.e.. weak longs. Wheat gains 4 1/2 to 558 1/4 on 13K increase in open interest. Don't overthink these markets folks, this is pure order flow and money flow. The buyer today is an emotionless machine seller tomorrow. Just depends on what story gains traction that day. Rice off 4 to 1187 1/2 with a spread seller attacking the close again today. Stuck for now. Dow off 106 to 25,289, giving up yesterday. Bonds give up 24 tics to settle 142.07. Again, stuck for now. If the dow decides to roll over, we are on the lower side of the range.
Corn sets back 7 1/4 to 365 with 20k of open interest liquidation. Beans lose 17 1/4 to 891 1/2 on 9500 drop in open interest, i.e.. weak longs. Wheat gains 4 1/2 to 558 1/4 on 13K increase in open interest. Don't overthink these markets folks, this is pure order flow and money flow. The buyer today is an emotionless machine seller tomorrow. Just depends on what story gains traction that day. Rice off 4 to 1187 1/2 with a spread seller attacking the close again today. Stuck for now. Dow off 106 to 25,289, giving up yesterday. Bonds give up 24 tics to settle 142.07. Again, stuck for now. If the dow decides to roll over, we are on the lower side of the range.
7/31
Month end trade brought the shorts out of the bean market as a strong meal contract helped to push beans up 28 cents to 908 3/4. Corn gained a nickel to 372 1/4 and wheat was up 7 1/4 to 553 3/4. Rice slipped 4 to 1191 1/2 as we continually find selling above $12 in sept. Dow gets back Mondays drop, up 110 points, 25,395 and the bonds close 142.31, up 11 tics. Jamie Dimon expressed concern about the fed unwind as well as how poor policy would have poor results in the economy moving forward. There is concern about credit worthiness with certain financial instruments in the EU Brexit split, and central bank balance sheets in general. Market took it all in stride, but be aware that there are a lot of global curveballs sitting out there that could be disruptive this fall.
Month end trade brought the shorts out of the bean market as a strong meal contract helped to push beans up 28 cents to 908 3/4. Corn gained a nickel to 372 1/4 and wheat was up 7 1/4 to 553 3/4. Rice slipped 4 to 1191 1/2 as we continually find selling above $12 in sept. Dow gets back Mondays drop, up 110 points, 25,395 and the bonds close 142.31, up 11 tics. Jamie Dimon expressed concern about the fed unwind as well as how poor policy would have poor results in the economy moving forward. There is concern about credit worthiness with certain financial instruments in the EU Brexit split, and central bank balance sheets in general. Market took it all in stride, but be aware that there are a lot of global curveballs sitting out there that could be disruptive this fall.
7/30
Wheat boys chased to the upside today, 546 1/2, plus 16, and dragging the corn along for 5 1/4 to 367 1/4. Beans gained 5 1/5 to 880 3/4 as some weather talk is entering the market and cash beans are finding a home. Rice spreads softened and sept was the loser for a nickel to 1195 1/2. Bull in sept had better show up tomorrow, and I would expect some last minute export numbers to appear Thursday. Dow off another 129 to 25,285, bonds slip 10 tics, 142.20, and there are some jitters about how long this trade fight is going to last, and how deep its going to cut. I think there is a miscommunication between President Trump and big business. Everyone told Trump to bring the jobs back here, but most just want to complain, not pay higher prices for USA made goods, or spend on infrastructure that can be made non competitive with the stroke of a pen. Every one of those newly minted Chinese billionaires will run at a scratch or even a loss for a while to keep running. Are we willing to?
Wheat boys chased to the upside today, 546 1/2, plus 16, and dragging the corn along for 5 1/4 to 367 1/4. Beans gained 5 1/5 to 880 3/4 as some weather talk is entering the market and cash beans are finding a home. Rice spreads softened and sept was the loser for a nickel to 1195 1/2. Bull in sept had better show up tomorrow, and I would expect some last minute export numbers to appear Thursday. Dow off another 129 to 25,285, bonds slip 10 tics, 142.20, and there are some jitters about how long this trade fight is going to last, and how deep its going to cut. I think there is a miscommunication between President Trump and big business. Everyone told Trump to bring the jobs back here, but most just want to complain, not pay higher prices for USA made goods, or spend on infrastructure that can be made non competitive with the stroke of a pen. Every one of those newly minted Chinese billionaires will run at a scratch or even a loss for a while to keep running. Are we willing to?
7/27
After a strong week in the dow, a small 111 point break to 25,414 for Fridays close. Bonds picked up 8 tics to 142.30. Corn gained 1/2 to 362 as we digest this price level and wait on the next thing out of DC. Wheat buy side suckers got hit for another 6 cents, 530 1/2. Bull global story meets bear churning computers, computers win. Beans up 9 to 875 1/4 as we saw some pretty heavy august liquidation in front of first notice. Rice closes 1/2 higher, 1200 1/2 and august options are off. Rice open interest is going up nicely now, as is the spec long position. Problem is, crop is coming along nicely too. Don't forget, we now have deliveries via shipping cert, not a WDR. If you don't understand what that means, you probably will by the end of September.
After a strong week in the dow, a small 111 point break to 25,414 for Fridays close. Bonds picked up 8 tics to 142.30. Corn gained 1/2 to 362 as we digest this price level and wait on the next thing out of DC. Wheat buy side suckers got hit for another 6 cents, 530 1/2. Bull global story meets bear churning computers, computers win. Beans up 9 to 875 1/4 as we saw some pretty heavy august liquidation in front of first notice. Rice closes 1/2 higher, 1200 1/2 and august options are off. Rice open interest is going up nicely now, as is the spec long position. Problem is, crop is coming along nicely too. Don't forget, we now have deliveries via shipping cert, not a WDR. If you don't understand what that means, you probably will by the end of September.
7/26
Dow takes another poke to the upside, 25,525, up 122. Bonds leak 23 tics to 142.22. Still in the churning range. Rice off 4 cents to 12 bucks even, and the bull showed late in an anemic volume trade to pop the market a nickel on the close. This is not the actions of a strong or committed trader, but of one that has already maybe overcommitted, and is looking for company, but starting to realize the clock is working against him. Wheat suckers were churned a little with a 536 1/2 close, off 6 1/4 and 17 from their highs. Corn up 2 1/4 to 361 1/2, but 4 off the high. Beans gain 1/4 to 866 1/4, but 20 cents off the highs. What all these trades have in common is the illusion that the market can pop, with a big window of air to make it pop, bit a ceiling on those highs that will need to be worked thru.
Dow takes another poke to the upside, 25,525, up 122. Bonds leak 23 tics to 142.22. Still in the churning range. Rice off 4 cents to 12 bucks even, and the bull showed late in an anemic volume trade to pop the market a nickel on the close. This is not the actions of a strong or committed trader, but of one that has already maybe overcommitted, and is looking for company, but starting to realize the clock is working against him. Wheat suckers were churned a little with a 536 1/2 close, off 6 1/4 and 17 from their highs. Corn up 2 1/4 to 361 1/2, but 4 off the high. Beans gain 1/4 to 866 1/4, but 20 cents off the highs. What all these trades have in common is the illusion that the market can pop, with a big window of air to make it pop, bit a ceiling on those highs that will need to be worked thru.
7/25
The tariff fears are hitting home in socialist Europe first, so they are the first to come to the table. China appears to be digging in for now, but they still have to eat, and we have made the right move in not storing, but selling and food aid to clear inventory. Once its eaten, you cant hold it against us. Corn up 7 1/4 to regain all yesterdays drop and more, 359 1/4. Beans close 866 for a gain of 2 1/2. The big story was wheat, 32 1/2 higher at 542 3/4. There is a global wheat story, but we did have a lot of new fools rushing to the dance floor all at once. Ill take slow and steady corn any day if I'm working the long side of global. Rice off a penny, 1204 1/2 as the commercials continue to try to keep a lid on the market until the combines run, and the weak farmers are exposed. I can make a case for $13 dollar rice and a case for $10 rice. Would not be surprised to see both. Dow continues its look to the upside, 25,403, plus 189 and the bonds gain 7 tics to 143.13.
The tariff fears are hitting home in socialist Europe first, so they are the first to come to the table. China appears to be digging in for now, but they still have to eat, and we have made the right move in not storing, but selling and food aid to clear inventory. Once its eaten, you cant hold it against us. Corn up 7 1/4 to regain all yesterdays drop and more, 359 1/4. Beans close 866 for a gain of 2 1/2. The big story was wheat, 32 1/2 higher at 542 3/4. There is a global wheat story, but we did have a lot of new fools rushing to the dance floor all at once. Ill take slow and steady corn any day if I'm working the long side of global. Rice off a penny, 1204 1/2 as the commercials continue to try to keep a lid on the market until the combines run, and the weak farmers are exposed. I can make a case for $13 dollar rice and a case for $10 rice. Would not be surprised to see both. Dow continues its look to the upside, 25,403, plus 189 and the bonds gain 7 tics to 143.13.
7/24
Dow went for a look on the upside, 25,214, gaining 181. Bonds trade 12 tics higher, 143.06 in a very tight range day . Corn backs off 5 1/4 to 352 while wheat slips 3 1/2 to 510 1/4. Beans up a dime to 863 1/2. The big story in the grains is the expected USDA announcement of farmer aid, in the form of a direct payment as well as funding for food aid sales. The devil is in the details, but this is a positive development if exercised as currently described. Rice up another 6 1/2 to 1205 1/2 as the large spec bull continues to push his case. Grass stories run from Texas to Mo., but I suspect at least a good crop in the end, followed by a class action for the lost acres.
Dow went for a look on the upside, 25,214, gaining 181. Bonds trade 12 tics higher, 143.06 in a very tight range day . Corn backs off 5 1/4 to 352 while wheat slips 3 1/2 to 510 1/4. Beans up a dime to 863 1/2. The big story in the grains is the expected USDA announcement of farmer aid, in the form of a direct payment as well as funding for food aid sales. The devil is in the details, but this is a positive development if exercised as currently described. Rice up another 6 1/2 to 1205 1/2 as the large spec bull continues to push his case. Grass stories run from Texas to Mo., but I suspect at least a good crop in the end, followed by a class action for the lost acres.
7/23
Nothing earthshaking on the global front, so dow chopped around for nothing today, 25,033, plus 3. Bonds down again, a full point and 12 tics to 142.26. Moved from the top of the range to near the bottom very quickly, and I don't know if this is just more of the financial boys churning, or they are repositioning in front of good news. Need to watch the big banks stock as well as the bond trade on this one. Corn O. I. climbing still, and futures gain 2 to 357 1/4. Beans falter and close down 1 3/4 at 853 1/2, but a tired trade, with a declining open interest. Same story in wheat, 513 3/4, minus 2 1/4. Rice cash is pretty much non existent, and the question is if all the domestic operations have enough to run the next month or not. Least amount of cash available to me in many years out there, so I think we have to make 20 the new pipeline moving forward. 1199, plus 6, and make sure you burn every receipt before you pay a dime to the farmer.
Nothing earthshaking on the global front, so dow chopped around for nothing today, 25,033, plus 3. Bonds down again, a full point and 12 tics to 142.26. Moved from the top of the range to near the bottom very quickly, and I don't know if this is just more of the financial boys churning, or they are repositioning in front of good news. Need to watch the big banks stock as well as the bond trade on this one. Corn O. I. climbing still, and futures gain 2 to 357 1/4. Beans falter and close down 1 3/4 at 853 1/2, but a tired trade, with a declining open interest. Same story in wheat, 513 3/4, minus 2 1/4. Rice cash is pretty much non existent, and the question is if all the domestic operations have enough to run the next month or not. Least amount of cash available to me in many years out there, so I think we have to make 20 the new pipeline moving forward. 1199, plus 6, and make sure you burn every receipt before you pay a dime to the farmer.
7/20
Wheat out in front again Friday, 516, plus 11 3/4. Rallies lead by declining open interest are not to be trusted, and this is currently one of those rallies. Corn up 4 to 355 1/4. Beans gain 3 1/4 to 855 1/4. Rice up 6 1/2 cents to 1193 with barely 200 trading on the day. Dow tries a press down but finds no followers, closing only 29 lower, 25,030. Bonds drop a point 03 to 144.06. What a difference a day makes. It will be interesting to see if the bankers are giving us the first hints that some kind of settlement is in the works. America really doesn't want to tariff all china's exports, but the rest of the world truly cant afford it. Chinas overextended credit would be exposed, along with the EU in the same boat. Notice how we never hear about Greece or the PIGS anymore? Does anyone think any of those countries have really cleaned up their act? When caught with the pants down, proper indignation is the only response, at least for now. I'm guessing even our press wont be able to avoid that little ditty much longer, but now they can at least blame it on Trump.
Wheat out in front again Friday, 516, plus 11 3/4. Rallies lead by declining open interest are not to be trusted, and this is currently one of those rallies. Corn up 4 to 355 1/4. Beans gain 3 1/4 to 855 1/4. Rice up 6 1/2 cents to 1193 with barely 200 trading on the day. Dow tries a press down but finds no followers, closing only 29 lower, 25,030. Bonds drop a point 03 to 144.06. What a difference a day makes. It will be interesting to see if the bankers are giving us the first hints that some kind of settlement is in the works. America really doesn't want to tariff all china's exports, but the rest of the world truly cant afford it. Chinas overextended credit would be exposed, along with the EU in the same boat. Notice how we never hear about Greece or the PIGS anymore? Does anyone think any of those countries have really cleaned up their act? When caught with the pants down, proper indignation is the only response, at least for now. I'm guessing even our press wont be able to avoid that little ditty much longer, but now they can at least blame it on Trump.
7/19
Wheat leads the market higher,504 1/4, plus 9 3/4. Everything else gained 4 cents. 351 1/4 in the corn, 852 for the beans, and 1186 1/2 in the rice. My problem with wanting to call the floor is that the leader, wheat, rallied with declining open interest, or in other words, just churn. Not the kind of action I like to put my money on. I will say the variability of the corn and bean crop, from excellent to washed out, is higher than normal by a wide margin from the reports I am getting this year domestically. Dow off 102 to 25,059 after what has been a decent run and tickling my resistance. Bonds gain 18 tics, 145.09. There is a growing fear that equities might have problems going up and bonds going down if this trade spat continues, and I believe it will continue. Sometimes return of capital is more important that return on capital.
Wheat leads the market higher,504 1/4, plus 9 3/4. Everything else gained 4 cents. 351 1/4 in the corn, 852 for the beans, and 1186 1/2 in the rice. My problem with wanting to call the floor is that the leader, wheat, rallied with declining open interest, or in other words, just churn. Not the kind of action I like to put my money on. I will say the variability of the corn and bean crop, from excellent to washed out, is higher than normal by a wide margin from the reports I am getting this year domestically. Dow off 102 to 25,059 after what has been a decent run and tickling my resistance. Bonds gain 18 tics, 145.09. There is a growing fear that equities might have problems going up and bonds going down if this trade spat continues, and I believe it will continue. Sometimes return of capital is more important that return on capital.
7/18
Corn stumbles around for a penny gain, 347 1/4. Beans up 3 cents, 848. Wheat churn off 3 1/4 today, 494 1/2. Short term seller trading system showed up today in the rice, messing with the options bull to push the market down 18 1/2 to 1182 1/2. Spreads held well and cash old crop is still trading at premiums, what is left to trade. Dow up 55 in dull trade, 25,161 and bonds slip 10 tics to 144.23.
Corn stumbles around for a penny gain, 347 1/4. Beans up 3 cents, 848. Wheat churn off 3 1/4 today, 494 1/2. Short term seller trading system showed up today in the rice, messing with the options bull to push the market down 18 1/2 to 1182 1/2. Spreads held well and cash old crop is still trading at premiums, what is left to trade. Dow up 55 in dull trade, 25,161 and bonds slip 10 tics to 144.23.
7/17
Nice baby bounce for the grains in Tuesday trade. Corn picked up 4 1/2 to 346 1/4. Beans gained 9 3/4 to 845. Wheat up 9 1/4 to 497 3/4, but on liquidation of shorts vs new buying volume. Rice is stalled, off 3 1/2 to 1201 as we watch and see if one options house can will this market up. Dow up 65, 25,106 and bonds drop 3 tics, 145.01.
Nice baby bounce for the grains in Tuesday trade. Corn picked up 4 1/2 to 346 1/4. Beans gained 9 3/4 to 845. Wheat up 9 1/4 to 497 3/4, but on liquidation of shorts vs new buying volume. Rice is stalled, off 3 1/2 to 1201 as we watch and see if one options house can will this market up. Dow up 65, 25,106 and bonds drop 3 tics, 145.01.
7/16
Corn tried to push higher, but settled back to 341 3/4, only 1/2 higher on the day. Wheat churn pushed lower today,488 1/2, minus 8 1/2. Beans popped 10 3/4 higher to 835 1/4 as we have miles of air above the market, but mostly hopes to fill. Rice up another 6 to 1204 1/2 in a quiet day. Cash is quietly stirring. Makes everyone a little uneasy. Dow up 37 to 25,041 as we survive the weekend news cycle, and bonds lose 18 tics to 145.04 and the banks stocks find a bid.
Corn tried to push higher, but settled back to 341 3/4, only 1/2 higher on the day. Wheat churn pushed lower today,488 1/2, minus 8 1/2. Beans popped 10 3/4 higher to 835 1/4 as we have miles of air above the market, but mostly hopes to fill. Rice up another 6 to 1204 1/2 in a quiet day. Cash is quietly stirring. Makes everyone a little uneasy. Dow up 37 to 25,041 as we survive the weekend news cycle, and bonds lose 18 tics to 145.04 and the banks stocks find a bid.
7/13
Friday the 13th. Corn breaks to test the Wednesday lows, 341 1/4, off 4 1/2. Beans follow meal lower to 824 1/2, down 14 1/2. Wheat churns to the upside,497, plus 12 1/2, as money flow dictates trade, with the excuse of Euro wheat pricing. Don't remember when we last imported black sea wheat. Yes, I know I said two different regions and I understand how imports work, Its for effect. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1198 1/2 as the big options guy is working the big spec short over, to see who blinks first in this high stakes game of chicken. You might note that neither have even a hint of care about the underlying commodity, but both produce lots of volume. As Friday brings July futures expiration, couple things stick out. In rice, east side got caught with their fingers in the cookie jar, and rice has nearly 2000 lower open interest than last year with a much bigger crop and basically the same price. Corn and beans open interest went up with the break, meaning the seller is getting shorter at record low prices. Dow up 110 to 25,004 and I have resistance around the 200, 400, and 600 mark. Lower high, ok high, higher high, nothing complex. Bonds up 13 tics to 145.22 in a dull trade.
Friday the 13th. Corn breaks to test the Wednesday lows, 341 1/4, off 4 1/2. Beans follow meal lower to 824 1/2, down 14 1/2. Wheat churns to the upside,497, plus 12 1/2, as money flow dictates trade, with the excuse of Euro wheat pricing. Don't remember when we last imported black sea wheat. Yes, I know I said two different regions and I understand how imports work, Its for effect. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1198 1/2 as the big options guy is working the big spec short over, to see who blinks first in this high stakes game of chicken. You might note that neither have even a hint of care about the underlying commodity, but both produce lots of volume. As Friday brings July futures expiration, couple things stick out. In rice, east side got caught with their fingers in the cookie jar, and rice has nearly 2000 lower open interest than last year with a much bigger crop and basically the same price. Corn and beans open interest went up with the break, meaning the seller is getting shorter at record low prices. Dow up 110 to 25,004 and I have resistance around the 200, 400, and 600 mark. Lower high, ok high, higher high, nothing complex. Bonds up 13 tics to 145.22 in a dull trade.
7/12
Exports were decent in rice, but weak everywhere else to start the morning. WASDE was bearish beans and rice, ok domestic and friendly globally for wheat, and surprisingly friendly for corn, both domestically and globally. Beans up a penny, 839. Rice up 3 to 1192 and over 1000 calls now in play, waiting for an opportunity to push the spec short out. Only 75 deliveries again tonight, all out of Ottwell. Anyone but me see how many contract issues are being exposed here? Wheat just out of breath on the down side, rallying 12 3/4 to 484 1/2. Corn up 5 3/4 to 345 3/4. Dow churn was to the upside, 205 higher, 24,894. Bonds off 6 tics in a listless trade, 145.09.
Exports were decent in rice, but weak everywhere else to start the morning. WASDE was bearish beans and rice, ok domestic and friendly globally for wheat, and surprisingly friendly for corn, both domestically and globally. Beans up a penny, 839. Rice up 3 to 1192 and over 1000 calls now in play, waiting for an opportunity to push the spec short out. Only 75 deliveries again tonight, all out of Ottwell. Anyone but me see how many contract issues are being exposed here? Wheat just out of breath on the down side, rallying 12 3/4 to 484 1/2. Corn up 5 3/4 to 345 3/4. Dow churn was to the upside, 205 higher, 24,894. Bonds off 6 tics in a listless trade, 145.09.
In the grain race to the bottom, wheat drops another 20 1/4 to 471 3/4 and corn closes 340, off 7 3/4. At this point we are trading a money flow game, and if you are long in the bin, all you can do is be patient and manage until the scourge subsides. How long? Since mid February, the bean farmer had been FORCED to market his crop north of $10, a number my calculator could never justify. If we can spend 4 months above my reality, we can surely spend a few below it now. Meal couldn't hold the beans, so beans lose 23 to 838. Rice trades unchanged, 1189. Commercial short is begrudgingly giving up his receipts to a hungry commercial long. 75 down and 240 to go. There is still a large spec rice short, but also a very large options bias to the calls this time instead of the puts, so don't lose track of the fact that we have a short that can't be too happy with his position, and what appears to be the big professional options player long calls and looking for the opportunity to blow the short out. If this dance plays out the way I think it could, we need to be diligent in our cash sales and hedging.. I'm going to repeat, you are already long in the field. Dow churn continues, off 238 today to 24,689, and bonds gain 15 tics, 145.15
7/10
Prospects for a great crop and increased carry over expectations on Thursdays report keeping pressure on the corn, 347 3/4, down 6 1/4 as the computer systems continue to add sales into the weakness, and domestic buyers are happy to back up their bids. Computers do the dirty work and the commercials just blame the board for the prices they pay. Not a new song, but most certainly an exaggerated one now. Wheat churn continues, off 16 to 492. Beans trade both sides of 861 by a dime , but settle unchanged, helped by a firm meal contract. Rice off 22 to 1189. 79 deliveries were posted late last night, but someone wanted to put out a weak settle in overnight trade in front of that news it would appear. Dow up 153 to 24,927 and bonds drop 4 tics, 145 even.
Prospects for a great crop and increased carry over expectations on Thursdays report keeping pressure on the corn, 347 3/4, down 6 1/4 as the computer systems continue to add sales into the weakness, and domestic buyers are happy to back up their bids. Computers do the dirty work and the commercials just blame the board for the prices they pay. Not a new song, but most certainly an exaggerated one now. Wheat churn continues, off 16 to 492. Beans trade both sides of 861 by a dime , but settle unchanged, helped by a firm meal contract. Rice off 22 to 1189. 79 deliveries were posted late last night, but someone wanted to put out a weak settle in overnight trade in front of that news it would appear. Dow up 153 to 24,927 and bonds drop 4 tics, 145 even.
7/09
A mild weather weekend and no tariff relief saw the grains get hit on Monday. Corn off 6 1/4 to 354. Wheat down 7 1/4 to 508. Beans drop to 861, losing 22 1/4. Most believe the WASDE report this Thursday will have dire carry over numbers. I believe we could very well be setting up for another sell the rumor, buy the fact trade, with the added kicker of putting some form of weather premium back into the market. Rice up another 12 1/2 to 1211 as the short spec is still carrying a sizable position in the latest commitments report. Still no more July deliveries. Dow acts like its turned, up another 318 to 24,774. Bank stocks were firm and bonds slipped 17 tics to 145.04. If the banks are firm again tomorrow, bonds could restart the march down.
A mild weather weekend and no tariff relief saw the grains get hit on Monday. Corn off 6 1/4 to 354. Wheat down 7 1/4 to 508. Beans drop to 861, losing 22 1/4. Most believe the WASDE report this Thursday will have dire carry over numbers. I believe we could very well be setting up for another sell the rumor, buy the fact trade, with the added kicker of putting some form of weather premium back into the market. Rice up another 12 1/2 to 1211 as the short spec is still carrying a sizable position in the latest commitments report. Still no more July deliveries. Dow acts like its turned, up another 318 to 24,774. Bank stocks were firm and bonds slipped 17 tics to 145.04. If the banks are firm again tomorrow, bonds could restart the march down.
7/06
Friday brings the start of tariff season, and a full blown sell the rumor, buy the fact trade. Corn regained the week to an 8 higher September close,360 1/4. Wheat continues the weekly gains for another 9 3/4 cents, 515 1/4. Meal started the soy rally, but beans took over for 38 1/4 to 883 1/4 and nov sniffing at $9. Rice gained 12 1/2 to 1198 1/2 with a big pop in September open interest, 300 more calls bought, and still no more deliveries against July, as the commercial shorts are using the rulebook yet again to their advantage against anyone who would dare stop and actually take delivery of rice receipts. Dow up 113 to 24,456 and bonds gain 5 tics to 145.21.
Friday brings the start of tariff season, and a full blown sell the rumor, buy the fact trade. Corn regained the week to an 8 higher September close,360 1/4. Wheat continues the weekly gains for another 9 3/4 cents, 515 1/4. Meal started the soy rally, but beans took over for 38 1/4 to 883 1/4 and nov sniffing at $9. Rice gained 12 1/2 to 1198 1/2 with a big pop in September open interest, 300 more calls bought, and still no more deliveries against July, as the commercial shorts are using the rulebook yet again to their advantage against anyone who would dare stop and actually take delivery of rice receipts. Dow up 113 to 24,456 and bonds gain 5 tics to 145.21.
7/05
Welcome back, the casino is still open. Corn tried to rally but faded back to 1/4 higher, 352 1/4. Wheat finished retaking Mondays break in a simple 3 day churn, 14 1/2 higher, 505 1/2. Beans continue their trip into the abyss, off another 8 3/4 cents to 845. Don't have to get too far from the river to think about a $7 handle. Not the kind of price that encourages good farming practices, or any intentions of growing soy next year. Gosh, you could loose less money growing wheat or sorghum. Rice short got more aggressive coming out today with 1300 contracts traded but surprisingly less of an open interest drop, and a couple hundred new September calls hidden thru the floor. 1186 1/2, plus 23 1/2. No July deliveries again. Seems the boys aren't so quick to deliver if a long might actually load out on them. Dow up 180 points, 24,343. Bonds gain 5 tics to 145.16.
Welcome back, the casino is still open. Corn tried to rally but faded back to 1/4 higher, 352 1/4. Wheat finished retaking Mondays break in a simple 3 day churn, 14 1/2 higher, 505 1/2. Beans continue their trip into the abyss, off another 8 3/4 cents to 845. Don't have to get too far from the river to think about a $7 handle. Not the kind of price that encourages good farming practices, or any intentions of growing soy next year. Gosh, you could loose less money growing wheat or sorghum. Rice short got more aggressive coming out today with 1300 contracts traded but surprisingly less of an open interest drop, and a couple hundred new September calls hidden thru the floor. 1186 1/2, plus 23 1/2. No July deliveries again. Seems the boys aren't so quick to deliver if a long might actually load out on them. Dow up 180 points, 24,343. Bonds gain 5 tics to 145.16.
7/03
The Mexico election threat has already lost its luster, and we at some point will need to reestablish a weather premium. September Corn up a nickel in a pre 4 th short trade day, 352. Wheat pops 10 3/4 to 491. Beans still the dog they should be, off 5 1/2 cents, 853 3/4. Rice bear still hunting the upside for volume to let him out of the trap, 21 1/2 higher, 1162 1/2. July rice still has 409 open and 59 more receipts were cancelled, with a busy river for this time of the year on a short crop. Looks like there might be inventory to get us to harvest as long as the domestic players don't get beat to the punch by another river contract,, but most of the new southern inventory is already spoken for and will be needed as soon as its dry enough to load. We for sure cant afford any harvest or drying delays this year, or any nasty gulf weather either. Dow off 123 to 24, 163 and bonds gain 19 tics in a pretty tight churning range for the last several days, 145.11.
The Mexico election threat has already lost its luster, and we at some point will need to reestablish a weather premium. September Corn up a nickel in a pre 4 th short trade day, 352. Wheat pops 10 3/4 to 491. Beans still the dog they should be, off 5 1/2 cents, 853 3/4. Rice bear still hunting the upside for volume to let him out of the trap, 21 1/2 higher, 1162 1/2. July rice still has 409 open and 59 more receipts were cancelled, with a busy river for this time of the year on a short crop. Looks like there might be inventory to get us to harvest as long as the domestic players don't get beat to the punch by another river contract,, but most of the new southern inventory is already spoken for and will be needed as soon as its dry enough to load. We for sure cant afford any harvest or drying delays this year, or any nasty gulf weather either. Dow off 123 to 24, 163 and bonds gain 19 tics in a pretty tight churning range for the last several days, 145.11.
7/02
All grains will be in September moving forward. Benign weather and no progress on the tariff front puts a fear into the grains. A known Mexican election outcome just added fuel to the fire. Corn off 12 1/2 to 347. Wheat falls 21 cents, 480 1/4. Beans drop a dime to 859 1/4. Rice bear is still trying to get out of his homebuilt trap, with sept gaining 18 1/2 to 1141. Deliveries still unfolding in a friendly way. Dow up 21, 24,286 and bonds off 8 tics, 144.24.
All grains will be in September moving forward. Benign weather and no progress on the tariff front puts a fear into the grains. A known Mexican election outcome just added fuel to the fire. Corn off 12 1/2 to 347. Wheat falls 21 cents, 480 1/4. Beans drop a dime to 859 1/4. Rice bear is still trying to get out of his homebuilt trap, with sept gaining 18 1/2 to 1141. Deliveries still unfolding in a friendly way. Dow up 21, 24,286 and bonds off 8 tics, 144.24.
6/29
11 O'clock came and went, and we went back to trading order flow. Wheat had air above, so it rallied 18 cents to 497 1/2. Corn a bit of the same story, 350 1/2 and 5 1/4 higher. Beans just couldn't get anything going, for a myriad of reasons, 858 1/2, minus 2 3/4. Rice bounces 19 to 1161 as the delivery story starts to get interesting. Dow settles 24,265, a 45 point gain, and bonds gain a tic to 145.
11 O'clock came and went, and we went back to trading order flow. Wheat had air above, so it rallied 18 cents to 497 1/2. Corn a bit of the same story, 350 1/2 and 5 1/4 higher. Beans just couldn't get anything going, for a myriad of reasons, 858 1/2, minus 2 3/4. Rice bounces 19 to 1161 as the delivery story starts to get interesting. Dow settles 24,265, a 45 point gain, and bonds gain a tic to 145.
6/28
Thursday trade with the last of the pre delivery liquidation trades in the grains, with declining open interest across the board. Corn gets hit the worst, even with decent exports, 345 and down 7 1/2 on the day. Wheat unchanged, 479 1/2 and probably found a bottom for this move. Beans drop 6 1/4, ending at 861 1/4. With heavy deliveries expected and the trade to current, I just don't see who is left to force out of longs, so the 11 o'clock report needs to be pretty bearish to have much more continuation down from here. Rice drops 28 to close 1142, and with lighter than expected deliveries, July is poised to get interesting. Dow up 85 in a relief rally to 24,220 and the bonds slip 10 tics, 144.31
Thursday trade with the last of the pre delivery liquidation trades in the grains, with declining open interest across the board. Corn gets hit the worst, even with decent exports, 345 and down 7 1/2 on the day. Wheat unchanged, 479 1/2 and probably found a bottom for this move. Beans drop 6 1/4, ending at 861 1/4. With heavy deliveries expected and the trade to current, I just don't see who is left to force out of longs, so the 11 o'clock report needs to be pretty bearish to have much more continuation down from here. Rice drops 28 to close 1142, and with lighter than expected deliveries, July is poised to get interesting. Dow up 85 in a relief rally to 24,220 and the bonds slip 10 tics, 144.31
6/27
More shuffling and liquidation going into deliveries tomorrow. Corn unchanged, 352 1/2. Beans up 1/4 to 867 1/2. Dead day in meal as well. Wheat pops a dime to 479 1/2 as the selling runs out for this wave. July rice pummeled for 80 1/2 as the spread roll just collapses, 1170 and well below cash again. Participants love to deliver, but take delivery, not so much. Until this is fixed, you can kiss rice participation goodbye in the new year. Why even do a basis contract if attached to broken futures? The clock will kill you. Dow drops 168 to 24,135 and bonds pop a point 01 to 145.09. I think the easy money has been made in this bond rally.
More shuffling and liquidation going into deliveries tomorrow. Corn unchanged, 352 1/2. Beans up 1/4 to 867 1/2. Dead day in meal as well. Wheat pops a dime to 479 1/2 as the selling runs out for this wave. July rice pummeled for 80 1/2 as the spread roll just collapses, 1170 and well below cash again. Participants love to deliver, but take delivery, not so much. Until this is fixed, you can kiss rice participation goodbye in the new year. Why even do a basis contract if attached to broken futures? The clock will kill you. Dow drops 168 to 24,135 and bonds pop a point 01 to 145.09. I think the easy money has been made in this bond rally.
6/26
Grains did in fact have a more settled trading day, with corn up 2 cents, 352 1/2 as we have large liquidation leading to first intentions Thursday. Anyone with any July grain inventory need to roll by Thursday's close. Wheat drops another 7 1/4 to 469 1/2 because, well, it's wheat. We could talk about being behind in exports, the great crop condition, etc., but at the end of the day, once the shorts get ahold of wheat, we get this show. Again and again. Meal stabilized today and beans drop 7 1/4, but the beans had at least a little support from the crush. Not enough to offset excess inventory and more tariff fears, but a little support is better than none. July rice open interest is already down to 835 as the bulls and bears dance and shuffle for what little remaining inventory is out there. 1250 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Fridays commitments told us with a fair degree of certainty that we will see some new receipts, most likely out of one of the three independents that love to deliver for the gravy storage and load out. But it appears that we might have someone who wants and needs that inventory to keep the mill running until new crop. See on Thursday when the gloves come off. 11 months out of the year the club stays in line, but can we make it 12 in this tight of an inventory situation? Dow up 24 points, 24,303, and the bonds lose 3 tics to 144.08.
Grains did in fact have a more settled trading day, with corn up 2 cents, 352 1/2 as we have large liquidation leading to first intentions Thursday. Anyone with any July grain inventory need to roll by Thursday's close. Wheat drops another 7 1/4 to 469 1/2 because, well, it's wheat. We could talk about being behind in exports, the great crop condition, etc., but at the end of the day, once the shorts get ahold of wheat, we get this show. Again and again. Meal stabilized today and beans drop 7 1/4, but the beans had at least a little support from the crush. Not enough to offset excess inventory and more tariff fears, but a little support is better than none. July rice open interest is already down to 835 as the bulls and bears dance and shuffle for what little remaining inventory is out there. 1250 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Fridays commitments told us with a fair degree of certainty that we will see some new receipts, most likely out of one of the three independents that love to deliver for the gravy storage and load out. But it appears that we might have someone who wants and needs that inventory to keep the mill running until new crop. See on Thursday when the gloves come off. 11 months out of the year the club stays in line, but can we make it 12 in this tight of an inventory situation? Dow up 24 points, 24,303, and the bonds lose 3 tics to 144.08.
6/25
Pretty nasty Monday in the grain room. Corn off 6 3/4 to 350 1/2 as longs liquidate heading into first notice, and the short institutional programs get shorter. Wheat down 14 1/2 to 476 3/4 with harvest and liquidation pressure, as well as the fact that of the big 3 grains, its the easiest to break. Beans have no meal support, so fall 20 cents, 874 1/2 and trade has to wonder if the spike low will hold. Rice closes 1247 with the spread taking a dive, down 13 on the day. Dow was down over 500, closing 320 lower, 24,279 and the bonds gain 12 tics to 144.11. I would expect the grains to settle down a little here and try to digest the new levels of pricing, and I believe the rice will have old crop and new crop fireworks in the next 2 weeks. Rice open interest is down to 1300 and it appeared that we were getting some long pricing, or at least short covering on the lows.
Pretty nasty Monday in the grain room. Corn off 6 3/4 to 350 1/2 as longs liquidate heading into first notice, and the short institutional programs get shorter. Wheat down 14 1/2 to 476 3/4 with harvest and liquidation pressure, as well as the fact that of the big 3 grains, its the easiest to break. Beans have no meal support, so fall 20 cents, 874 1/2 and trade has to wonder if the spike low will hold. Rice closes 1247 with the spread taking a dive, down 13 on the day. Dow was down over 500, closing 320 lower, 24,279 and the bonds gain 12 tics to 144.11. I would expect the grains to settle down a little here and try to digest the new levels of pricing, and I believe the rice will have old crop and new crop fireworks in the next 2 weeks. Rice open interest is down to 1300 and it appeared that we were getting some long pricing, or at least short covering on the lows.
6/22
Friday Corn doing more liquidation trade, up 1/4 to 357 1/4. Wheat slips 4 in the churn, 491 1/4. Beans pop 14 on meal strength, 894 1/2, but beans NEED meal strength to pop. Rice pins the big options strike for expiration, 1260 and down 9 1/2. Dow has a relief rally to 24,599, up 127 while the bonds settle unchanged, 143.31.
Friday Corn doing more liquidation trade, up 1/4 to 357 1/4. Wheat slips 4 in the churn, 491 1/4. Beans pop 14 on meal strength, 894 1/2, but beans NEED meal strength to pop. Rice pins the big options strike for expiration, 1260 and down 9 1/2. Dow has a relief rally to 24,599, up 127 while the bonds settle unchanged, 143.31.
6/21
Corn wanting to base on the realization that we have all of July weather to contend with, and most of the time it gets hot and dry in the summer. Added benefit is the global situation gets friendlier with time. 357, plus 2 3/4. Wheat pops 7 as the computers churn that market, 495 1/4. Beans continue the slide, losing 9 today to close 880 1/2. They don't want the July options boys to get a free ride back down to the recent low test, but I wouldn't rule it out next week. Be nimble if it does. Rice ran into the options churn high point, and pushed back to the low end of the churn for the close. Tomorrow will provide a lot of information about how the elephants want to dance next week and beyond. 1269 1/2 close, up 4 1/2. Guess the dow wasn't done with the bottom fishing, dropping another 198 to close 24,472 while bonds gain 15 tics to 143.31. To be honest, I spent no time today watching the financials or dow, so I have no value added comment.
Corn wanting to base on the realization that we have all of July weather to contend with, and most of the time it gets hot and dry in the summer. Added benefit is the global situation gets friendlier with time. 357, plus 2 3/4. Wheat pops 7 as the computers churn that market, 495 1/4. Beans continue the slide, losing 9 today to close 880 1/2. They don't want the July options boys to get a free ride back down to the recent low test, but I wouldn't rule it out next week. Be nimble if it does. Rice ran into the options churn high point, and pushed back to the low end of the churn for the close. Tomorrow will provide a lot of information about how the elephants want to dance next week and beyond. 1269 1/2 close, up 4 1/2. Guess the dow wasn't done with the bottom fishing, dropping another 198 to close 24,472 while bonds gain 15 tics to 143.31. To be honest, I spent no time today watching the financials or dow, so I have no value added comment.
6/20
Corn looked lower, but closed 1/2 higher, 354 1/4. Same story in the beans with a 889 1/2 close. Wheat got an exhaustion rally for 10 1/2 cents, 488 1/4. Stupid tax still being applied to the rice short, 44 higher to 1265 and back up where the options boys can play. I will remind yet again that Friday is the last day for the options security blanket. Dow off 45 but seems to want to base, 24,670. Bonds off 19 tics to 143.16
Corn looked lower, but closed 1/2 higher, 354 1/4. Same story in the beans with a 889 1/2 close. Wheat got an exhaustion rally for 10 1/2 cents, 488 1/4. Stupid tax still being applied to the rice short, 44 higher to 1265 and back up where the options boys can play. I will remind yet again that Friday is the last day for the options security blanket. Dow off 45 but seems to want to base, 24,670. Bonds off 19 tics to 143.16
6/19
Fear exploded out of the box with more trade tariff talk and every grain getting pounded, but recovering late. Most think this move set the lows, but I would not be surprised to test that theory between now and first notice. Corn settles 353n3/4, only off 2 1/4. Wheat off 12 1/4 to 477 3/4. Beans tested all form of lows early, but come back to 889, down 19 1/2. Rice spread gets hit hard, so July follows suit, 53 1/2 lower, 1221. Don't believe the July show is over just yet. Dow went to and thru yesterdays hole, 301 lower, 24,715. Bonds gain 17 tics to 144.03. If the flight to quality is ending, so probably is the dow break. I expect tomorrow to digest the grain bounce, and the break that started it.
Fear exploded out of the box with more trade tariff talk and every grain getting pounded, but recovering late. Most think this move set the lows, but I would not be surprised to test that theory between now and first notice. Corn settles 353n3/4, only off 2 1/4. Wheat off 12 1/4 to 477 3/4. Beans tested all form of lows early, but come back to 889, down 19 1/2. Rice spread gets hit hard, so July follows suit, 53 1/2 lower, 1221. Don't believe the July show is over just yet. Dow went to and thru yesterdays hole, 301 lower, 24,715. Bonds gain 17 tics to 144.03. If the flight to quality is ending, so probably is the dow break. I expect tomorrow to digest the grain bounce, and the break that started it.
6/18
Benign weather and longs to run out makes corn an easy target for the bear program, 5 1/4 lower to 356. Afraid you will have to endure the 4th holiday before they might reevaluate, so buckle down. Same story with wheat, 9 1/2 lower, 490, and wheat has those same susceptible contract spec issues as rice, so be carful about catching the falling knife. Beans recover 3, but meal loses 3 bucks, and beans aren't much good without the protein draw, 908 1/2. Rice bear still trapped, as the spread again gains and July rallies 38 1/2 cents to 1274 1/2. Dow off 93 to 25,016, but punched a big hole underneath, and by now you must know about how the churn boys like to probe those holes. Bonds lose 3 tics, 143.18.
Benign weather and longs to run out makes corn an easy target for the bear program, 5 1/4 lower to 356. Afraid you will have to endure the 4th holiday before they might reevaluate, so buckle down. Same story with wheat, 9 1/2 lower, 490, and wheat has those same susceptible contract spec issues as rice, so be carful about catching the falling knife. Beans recover 3, but meal loses 3 bucks, and beans aren't much good without the protein draw, 908 1/2. Rice bear still trapped, as the spread again gains and July rallies 38 1/2 cents to 1274 1/2. Dow off 93 to 25,016, but punched a big hole underneath, and by now you must know about how the churn boys like to probe those holes. Bonds lose 3 tics, 143.18.
6/15
Friday trades ugly for the beans, 905 1/2 and 21 3/4 lower. I don't mind if you ring the register on a put or 2 to pay for the whole trade, but I cant rule out another 50-60 cent break next week. Wheat slips a couple to 499 1/2. Corn tries a rally, but ultimately fades to 361 1/4, off 1 3/4. Rice short in July still stuck with the spread gaining 13 and July up 5 1/2, to 1236. Rice has two sides of a very interesting dynamic for next weeks trade, and if I have not discussed the potentials with you, please call. Dow ends the week off 101 at 25,109 and bonds rally 12 tics to 143.21. A few trading notes to take into next week. Dow had to rally a couple hundred points to close where it did, so there is air underneath and the bond market acts like a bit more of a safe haven trade right now than an interest rate play. Meal is back under 340 so we are pricing ourselves into some protein sales, but we have plenty of beans, more than domestic consumption can take. Corn has a much better domestic and global story for the next year, but its not nearly as tight domestically as rice, and the computers decimated rice beyond any semblance of reason. I am working up my opinion of what some of this trading systems features are, and will post to education when done.
Friday trades ugly for the beans, 905 1/2 and 21 3/4 lower. I don't mind if you ring the register on a put or 2 to pay for the whole trade, but I cant rule out another 50-60 cent break next week. Wheat slips a couple to 499 1/2. Corn tries a rally, but ultimately fades to 361 1/4, off 1 3/4. Rice short in July still stuck with the spread gaining 13 and July up 5 1/2, to 1236. Rice has two sides of a very interesting dynamic for next weeks trade, and if I have not discussed the potentials with you, please call. Dow ends the week off 101 at 25,109 and bonds rally 12 tics to 143.21. A few trading notes to take into next week. Dow had to rally a couple hundred points to close where it did, so there is air underneath and the bond market acts like a bit more of a safe haven trade right now than an interest rate play. Meal is back under 340 so we are pricing ourselves into some protein sales, but we have plenty of beans, more than domestic consumption can take. Corn has a much better domestic and global story for the next year, but its not nearly as tight domestically as rice, and the computers decimated rice beyond any semblance of reason. I am working up my opinion of what some of this trading systems features are, and will post to education when done.
6/14
Corn down 13, 363. Wheat off 15 to 501 1/2. Beans 8 3/4 lower to 927 1/4, but act defeated. Rice bear still having to pay to get out via the spread, now $2 over, and July futures up 21 1/2 to 1230 1/2. Dow up 2 to 25,210, and bonds gain 22 tics to 143.09. Computers totally running the show in the grains, as I had feared, and buying their way out of their error in rice. I will do a write-up this weekend about it if I get time. Call with any questions.
Corn down 13, 363. Wheat off 15 to 501 1/2. Beans 8 3/4 lower to 927 1/4, but act defeated. Rice bear still having to pay to get out via the spread, now $2 over, and July futures up 21 1/2 to 1230 1/2. Dow up 2 to 25,210, and bonds gain 22 tics to 143.09. Computers totally running the show in the grains, as I had feared, and buying their way out of their error in rice. I will do a write-up this weekend about it if I get time. Call with any questions.
6/13
Corn gives up a penny and a half to 376. That's the only good story in the big 3. Wheat off 18 to 516 1/2. Beans lose 18 as well, 936.. Rice bear still feeling the pain of selling what he doesn't own, and cant get, 1209 and plus 16 1/2. Still a solid dollar cheap. Spread is marching up 30 a day as well, as he tries rolling out to defer the pain a little longer. Oats off 9, and not too excited about that.. Exports tomorrow worth watching. Switching to sept in bond and dow. Bonds drop 10 tics, 142.19 while dow off 107 to 25,208. Fed just cant leave interest rates alone.
Corn gives up a penny and a half to 376. That's the only good story in the big 3. Wheat off 18 to 516 1/2. Beans lose 18 as well, 936.. Rice bear still feeling the pain of selling what he doesn't own, and cant get, 1209 and plus 16 1/2. Still a solid dollar cheap. Spread is marching up 30 a day as well, as he tries rolling out to defer the pain a little longer. Oats off 9, and not too excited about that.. Exports tomorrow worth watching. Switching to sept in bond and dow. Bonds drop 10 tics, 142.19 while dow off 107 to 25,208. Fed just cant leave interest rates alone.
6/12
Pretty eventful day in big picture terms. WASDE report came friendly for all the grains, domestic and global. Rice was a bit of a disappointment with under reported exports in the weekly's, , but I firmly expect revisions later based on reports from the river. Corn up 10 1/4 to 377 1/2. Lots of potential for upside in a weather market, if the computers don't get to it first. Wheat more ran out of steam that anything in expected, 534 1/2, gaining 20 cents. Beans popped a dime but settled back to 954, up only a quarter cent. Rice spreads gained huge again and July was up 28 1/2 on the close, 1192 1/2. How these last few days rice trade is important to the grain trade is that at least part of the computer program that drove rice down is failing because of the July/September spread gains as the short tries to roll. Spread has moved nearly $1.50, negating more than half of the perceived profits, and the position is still a huge and undeliverable short. A neutral report and an easy roll in rice and I believe we would have gotten hammered today in the grains. That risk may be past for now, but moving forward we cannot discount it. Dow off 33 to 25,296 and bonds gain 3 tics, 143.24.
Pretty eventful day in big picture terms. WASDE report came friendly for all the grains, domestic and global. Rice was a bit of a disappointment with under reported exports in the weekly's, , but I firmly expect revisions later based on reports from the river. Corn up 10 1/4 to 377 1/2. Lots of potential for upside in a weather market, if the computers don't get to it first. Wheat more ran out of steam that anything in expected, 534 1/2, gaining 20 cents. Beans popped a dime but settled back to 954, up only a quarter cent. Rice spreads gained huge again and July was up 28 1/2 on the close, 1192 1/2. How these last few days rice trade is important to the grain trade is that at least part of the computer program that drove rice down is failing because of the July/September spread gains as the short tries to roll. Spread has moved nearly $1.50, negating more than half of the perceived profits, and the position is still a huge and undeliverable short. A neutral report and an easy roll in rice and I believe we would have gotten hammered today in the grains. That risk may be past for now, but moving forward we cannot discount it. Dow off 33 to 25,296 and bonds gain 3 tics, 143.24.
6/11
Monday begins with the new evolution of grain trading firmly in place, Corn off 10 1/2 to 367 1/4. Wheat down 5 1/2 to 514 1/2. Beans lose 15 1/2 to 953 3/4. This is the new normal for the month. The computers, which run the show, did their test run in rice and are now executing a modified program in the other grains. Their flaws in rice corrected, it will be an interesting month. Better pray for a solid WASDE report tomorrow, and more importantly for our leader to bring home some big time export bacon, or every farmer is gong to be crying about the break, while the regulators will show up after the fact to count the dead bodies and mourn your loss with lip service. Rice up 46 to 1164 and the spread even more as the computers glaring flaw is coming to light, albeit after mauling every farmer out there who thought a reasonable trade was to re-own futures for the cash position they needed to sell for logistical reasons. Inventory management on the farm will adjust after this comedy, and getting the return customer will prove difficult to impossible. Heads up if you are a corn or bean guy. Dow up 22 to 25,329 and bonds slip 12 tics to 143.21. WASDE tomorrow, and don't expect much in anything but rice. There, I wouldn't rule out anything.
6/08
Corn is trying to base here, up a penny and a half, 377 3/4. Wheat drops 6 3/4 to 520. Beans off a nickel to 969 1/4 and meal might be finding a tradeable level. Rice off 3 1/2 to 1118 as the bear seems to finally run out of bullets. Next few weeks will be interesting, and that's an understatement. For those who have nothing to do with rice, do your self a favor and pull up the chart and watch trade for a while. It will be a real eye opener. Dow rejects early selling to get 39 higher by the close, 25,307. Bonds off 3 tics to 144.01.
Monday begins with the new evolution of grain trading firmly in place, Corn off 10 1/2 to 367 1/4. Wheat down 5 1/2 to 514 1/2. Beans lose 15 1/2 to 953 3/4. This is the new normal for the month. The computers, which run the show, did their test run in rice and are now executing a modified program in the other grains. Their flaws in rice corrected, it will be an interesting month. Better pray for a solid WASDE report tomorrow, and more importantly for our leader to bring home some big time export bacon, or every farmer is gong to be crying about the break, while the regulators will show up after the fact to count the dead bodies and mourn your loss with lip service. Rice up 46 to 1164 and the spread even more as the computers glaring flaw is coming to light, albeit after mauling every farmer out there who thought a reasonable trade was to re-own futures for the cash position they needed to sell for logistical reasons. Inventory management on the farm will adjust after this comedy, and getting the return customer will prove difficult to impossible. Heads up if you are a corn or bean guy. Dow up 22 to 25,329 and bonds slip 12 tics to 143.21. WASDE tomorrow, and don't expect much in anything but rice. There, I wouldn't rule out anything.
6/08
Corn is trying to base here, up a penny and a half, 377 3/4. Wheat drops 6 3/4 to 520. Beans off a nickel to 969 1/4 and meal might be finding a tradeable level. Rice off 3 1/2 to 1118 as the bear seems to finally run out of bullets. Next few weeks will be interesting, and that's an understatement. For those who have nothing to do with rice, do your self a favor and pull up the chart and watch trade for a while. It will be a real eye opener. Dow rejects early selling to get 39 higher by the close, 25,307. Bonds off 3 tics to 144.01.
6/07
Wheat the only bright spot in the grain room, seven higher, 526 3/4. Corn down a couple cents to 376 1/4, and beans down 20, closing 974 1/4. Tough call here on ringing the register on shorts, but I would not try to buy it yet. Rice fantasy island down 34 to 1121 1/2 with record export sales and shipments, putting actual shipments ahead of last year, even though the government has us with a big decrease. This is not a futures market, its a course in money management with a minor in computer programing, and no limit poker is your hobby. Regardless of how this plays out, rice futures are tainted for life, and I just pray that smarter heads prevail and contain this comedy to rice. Dow up 128 to settle 25,268 and bonds gain 28 tics to 144.04
Wheat the only bright spot in the grain room, seven higher, 526 3/4. Corn down a couple cents to 376 1/4, and beans down 20, closing 974 1/4. Tough call here on ringing the register on shorts, but I would not try to buy it yet. Rice fantasy island down 34 to 1121 1/2 with record export sales and shipments, putting actual shipments ahead of last year, even though the government has us with a big decrease. This is not a futures market, its a course in money management with a minor in computer programing, and no limit poker is your hobby. Regardless of how this plays out, rice futures are tainted for life, and I just pray that smarter heads prevail and contain this comedy to rice. Dow up 128 to settle 25,268 and bonds gain 28 tics to 144.04
6/06
Computers are churning the wheat again, 9 3/4 higher, 519 3/4. Beans down 7 to 994 1/4, and although getting to cheaper prices, I would not try to buy this market. Corn drops 5 1/2 to 378 1/4, and if I had not just watched the rice circus, I could see trying to pick at this market an much more of a drop. Given what we just watched, Id rather miss the trade than be run over by the same steam roller. Rice seller showed up for the open as expected, but soon short covering and new buying exposed the seller for the paper tiger he is, gaining 61 cents to 1155 1/2. And open interest gains in July again. Dow pops 318 to 25,140 while the bonds fade 1.02 to 143.08. I'm half out of pocket, but without looking I would bet the bank stocks had a solid day.
Computers are churning the wheat again, 9 3/4 higher, 519 3/4. Beans down 7 to 994 1/4, and although getting to cheaper prices, I would not try to buy this market. Corn drops 5 1/2 to 378 1/4, and if I had not just watched the rice circus, I could see trying to pick at this market an much more of a drop. Given what we just watched, Id rather miss the trade than be run over by the same steam roller. Rice seller showed up for the open as expected, but soon short covering and new buying exposed the seller for the paper tiger he is, gaining 61 cents to 1155 1/2. And open interest gains in July again. Dow pops 318 to 25,140 while the bonds fade 1.02 to 143.08. I'm half out of pocket, but without looking I would bet the bank stocks had a solid day.
6/05
Corn bounces 3 cents to close 383 3/4. Wheat gain 4 3/4 to 510. Beans churn around for the day, but settle 1001 1/4, off 1/2. Rice comedy hour continues, down another 27 cents to 1094 1/2. To put this market into perspective, July open interest is now 3/4 of my total projected carry over. And carry over, especially on the farm, is as tight as any of the professionals I talk to, have ever seen. To make these numbers balance , we would need to be a 60,000 open interest contract. Rice is an 8000 open interest contract. So primarily a large spec ( ie. hedge fund or managed money by my calculation with no ties to the real rice market)is allowed to collapse a market by simply overwhelming, by volume, forcing long liquidation with any and all trace of reasonable market controls absent. This is taking place in the grain market (rice) with far and away the tightest domestic supply situation and an underwhelming new crop planted acreage to boot. With this in mind, I cant in good faith recommend using the board moving forward as a long hedging device in rice, and I would suggest EXTREME CAUTION in corn wheat or beans. Don't lose track of the fact that even if a computer system isn't in rice as of this minute, the data that is being generated is being added to their algorithms.
Corn bounces 3 cents to close 383 3/4. Wheat gain 4 3/4 to 510. Beans churn around for the day, but settle 1001 1/4, off 1/2. Rice comedy hour continues, down another 27 cents to 1094 1/2. To put this market into perspective, July open interest is now 3/4 of my total projected carry over. And carry over, especially on the farm, is as tight as any of the professionals I talk to, have ever seen. To make these numbers balance , we would need to be a 60,000 open interest contract. Rice is an 8000 open interest contract. So primarily a large spec ( ie. hedge fund or managed money by my calculation with no ties to the real rice market)is allowed to collapse a market by simply overwhelming, by volume, forcing long liquidation with any and all trace of reasonable market controls absent. This is taking place in the grain market (rice) with far and away the tightest domestic supply situation and an underwhelming new crop planted acreage to boot. With this in mind, I cant in good faith recommend using the board moving forward as a long hedging device in rice, and I would suggest EXTREME CAUTION in corn wheat or beans. Don't lose track of the fact that even if a computer system isn't in rice as of this minute, the data that is being generated is being added to their algorithms.
6/04
Ugly Monday in the grains, as benign weather stories, a large spec long, and computer selling all converge to batter everything green. Corn off 10 3/4 to 380 3/4. Wheat hammered for 18 cents, 505 1/4. Beans down 19 1/2, closing 1001 3/4. Rice down another 23 to 1121 1/2. After watching the comedy called rice futures since the beginning of may, and knowing now that the computers have unlimited and unstoppable power on the sell side of the card, I wouldn't try to catch the knife, and I will warn you that this corn and bean break has the capacity to go farther and harder and longer than the industry would expect. Way farther than any rational calculation would place as reasonable. Dow churn continues, 24,796, plus 167. Bonds drop 22 tics to 144.04.
Ugly Monday in the grains, as benign weather stories, a large spec long, and computer selling all converge to batter everything green. Corn off 10 3/4 to 380 3/4. Wheat hammered for 18 cents, 505 1/4. Beans down 19 1/2, closing 1001 3/4. Rice down another 23 to 1121 1/2. After watching the comedy called rice futures since the beginning of may, and knowing now that the computers have unlimited and unstoppable power on the sell side of the card, I wouldn't try to catch the knife, and I will warn you that this corn and bean break has the capacity to go farther and harder and longer than the industry would expect. Way farther than any rational calculation would place as reasonable. Dow churn continues, 24,796, plus 167. Bonds drop 22 tics to 144.04.
6/01
Friday trade nothing to write home about, as weather and political talk trade places for attention, and each can change on a dime. Corn off another 2 1/2 to 391 1/2 while wheat slips 3 to 523 1/4. Beans choppy but gain 2 3/4 to 1021 1/4. Rice off 11 1/2 and wanting to make sure there are bids below, 1144 1/2. Commitments show a bunch of July spec shorts, and the clock will not be working in their favor this month. But it has been very hard to trade from the long side. Dow churn continues, plus 212 and a 24,629 close. Bank stocks had strength, so bonds broke, 144.26, minus 1.06.
Friday trade nothing to write home about, as weather and political talk trade places for attention, and each can change on a dime. Corn off another 2 1/2 to 391 1/2 while wheat slips 3 to 523 1/4. Beans choppy but gain 2 3/4 to 1021 1/4. Rice off 11 1/2 and wanting to make sure there are bids below, 1144 1/2. Commitments show a bunch of July spec shorts, and the clock will not be working in their favor this month. But it has been very hard to trade from the long side. Dow churn continues, plus 212 and a 24,629 close. Bank stocks had strength, so bonds broke, 144.26, minus 1.06.
5/31
Month end trade tries to push higher early, but corn settles only 1/2 higher,394. Beans watch the meal strength fade and lose 4 1/2 cents, 1018 1/2.. Wheat gets a feeble 4 1/2 cent bounce from yesterdays selling, 526 1/4. Rice off a dime to 1156 on back fill trade, but I'm starting to smell a rat. I cant wrap my hands around the large for this time 5600 open interest in may, with what is reported to be a spec short and commercial long in a market with no real capacity to deliver July. Something just does not add up, and I'm starting to wonder if its the reporting. I very much want to see todays commitments at 2:30, and wish it was a daily report. Dow off 252 as the computer churn continues, 24,417, because why do a little churn when you can do a big churn. Bonds up 18 tics, 146
Month end trade tries to push higher early, but corn settles only 1/2 higher,394. Beans watch the meal strength fade and lose 4 1/2 cents, 1018 1/2.. Wheat gets a feeble 4 1/2 cent bounce from yesterdays selling, 526 1/4. Rice off a dime to 1156 on back fill trade, but I'm starting to smell a rat. I cant wrap my hands around the large for this time 5600 open interest in may, with what is reported to be a spec short and commercial long in a market with no real capacity to deliver July. Something just does not add up, and I'm starting to wonder if its the reporting. I very much want to see todays commitments at 2:30, and wish it was a daily report. Dow off 252 as the computer churn continues, 24,417, because why do a little churn when you can do a big churn. Bonds up 18 tics, 146
5/30
More selling in the grains, with corn off 6 1/2, 393 1/2 and beans down 7 1/2 to 1023. Wheat, always seems to be the easiest market to break, 522, down 14 1/2. Beans and corn seemed to catch a bid later in the day, and it bodes watching if this has been enough of a washout for now. I'm nervous about beans and corn, so the trigger finger is a little itchy. Rice spreads find a floor and pop, and so does flat price, 1166 and 20 higher on the day. The feature is 285 more receipts cancelled, and presumably headed down the river to export. That is 1/3 of the receipt security blanket gone, but the same domestic butts still needing the cover it provided. I would expect those still holding physical to start getting calls again, about how there is no bid and no business, but what would it take for your lovely cash buyer to help you out. Dow churn continues, up 292 to 24,669 and bonds give back 26 tics to 145.14.
More selling in the grains, with corn off 6 1/2, 393 1/2 and beans down 7 1/2 to 1023. Wheat, always seems to be the easiest market to break, 522, down 14 1/2. Beans and corn seemed to catch a bid later in the day, and it bodes watching if this has been enough of a washout for now. I'm nervous about beans and corn, so the trigger finger is a little itchy. Rice spreads find a floor and pop, and so does flat price, 1166 and 20 higher on the day. The feature is 285 more receipts cancelled, and presumably headed down the river to export. That is 1/3 of the receipt security blanket gone, but the same domestic butts still needing the cover it provided. I would expect those still holding physical to start getting calls again, about how there is no bid and no business, but what would it take for your lovely cash buyer to help you out. Dow churn continues, up 292 to 24,669 and bonds give back 26 tics to 145.14.
5/29
Tuesday trade started in the night session with some vigor, but faded all day for the grains. Corn off 6 to 400, while wheat drops 6 1/2 to 536 1/2. Beans lose 11 to 1030 1/2 as the struggle between a solid amount of us stocks against potential from china and North Korea for that matter. Rice off 10 1/2 as the computer hopes to probe Fridays lows but cant, 1146 and on less volume to boot. Dow get smacked 353 lower, 24,377 as the computers probe the whole they opened, and we noted, last week. Bonds had a big flight to quality gaining 2. 18 in a big move up, 146.08. Ill note for you that are trading or watching the bonds that the key to staying off what should have been a downward channel short was paying close attention to the bank stocks, again noted in last weeks comments. Yes, they are that inter-related and that closely traded in even day to day trade.
Tuesday trade started in the night session with some vigor, but faded all day for the grains. Corn off 6 to 400, while wheat drops 6 1/2 to 536 1/2. Beans lose 11 to 1030 1/2 as the struggle between a solid amount of us stocks against potential from china and North Korea for that matter. Rice off 10 1/2 as the computer hopes to probe Fridays lows but cant, 1146 and on less volume to boot. Dow get smacked 353 lower, 24,377 as the computers probe the whole they opened, and we noted, last week. Bonds had a big flight to quality gaining 2. 18 in a big move up, 146.08. Ill note for you that are trading or watching the bonds that the key to staying off what should have been a downward channel short was paying close attention to the bank stocks, again noted in last weeks comments. Yes, they are that inter-related and that closely traded in even day to day trade.
5/25
Corn up 1 3/4 to end the week 406. Meal gains 3 bucks and beans are up 5 3/4 cents, 1041 1/2. Wheat had me nervous Thursday, but global changes all lean toward a tighter tradable supply, 543 and gaining 12 3/4. Barring trade by managed money even further into the obscene, I'd say rice has found its floor. 1156 1/2, + 1/2. The quants searched the down side of the dow again, minus 73 and 24,730 close. Bonds up 29 to 143.22. Not too far away from what I had originally expected to be the top of this run up, but chart and stows tell me to watch the bank stocks a little closer before a new bond short is in order.
Corn up 1 3/4 to end the week 406. Meal gains 3 bucks and beans are up 5 3/4 cents, 1041 1/2. Wheat had me nervous Thursday, but global changes all lean toward a tighter tradable supply, 543 and gaining 12 3/4. Barring trade by managed money even further into the obscene, I'd say rice has found its floor. 1156 1/2, + 1/2. The quants searched the down side of the dow again, minus 73 and 24,730 close. Bonds up 29 to 143.22. Not too far away from what I had originally expected to be the top of this run up, but chart and stows tell me to watch the bank stocks a little closer before a new bond short is in order.
5/24
Weaker tone thru the day and corn gives back 4 1/4 to 404 1/4. Wheat off 3/4, 530 1/4 but it needs to find legs on Friday. Beans down 3 1/2 to 1035 3/4 and kind of the same story. Rice trade travesty continues, off 36 to 1156. There is a failure of the largest players to keep an orderly market. The next few months in the cash market will tell the story, and I'll eat my words if wrong, but who gets called on the carpet if I'm right. Time will tell, but participation will change in a major way. Dow off 56 and tired, while bonds gain 18 tics to 142.25.
Weaker tone thru the day and corn gives back 4 1/4 to 404 1/4. Wheat off 3/4, 530 1/4 but it needs to find legs on Friday. Beans down 3 1/2 to 1035 3/4 and kind of the same story. Rice trade travesty continues, off 36 to 1156. There is a failure of the largest players to keep an orderly market. The next few months in the cash market will tell the story, and I'll eat my words if wrong, but who gets called on the carpet if I'm right. Time will tell, but participation will change in a major way. Dow off 56 and tired, while bonds gain 18 tics to 142.25.
5/23
Market started tentative, but bulls came in and pushed wheat another 9 1/2 higher, 531. Corn went along for 3 3/4 cents to close 408 1/2. Beans gained 8 3/4 to 1039 1/4. Rice was bloodied when yesterdays lows did not hold, down 41 to 1192. When the American grain with the best fundamental story collapses like rice has recently, mostly on the back of institutional selling, the rest of the grains need to take notice, or the exchange needs to investigate why. Time will tell. Dow rejected a 200 point break to close 14 higher, 24,859, but be aware that the air pocket to the down side has been opened. Bonds gain 31 tics on some dovish FED speak, 142.07.
Market started tentative, but bulls came in and pushed wheat another 9 1/2 higher, 531. Corn went along for 3 3/4 cents to close 408 1/2. Beans gained 8 3/4 to 1039 1/4. Rice was bloodied when yesterdays lows did not hold, down 41 to 1192. When the American grain with the best fundamental story collapses like rice has recently, mostly on the back of institutional selling, the rest of the grains need to take notice, or the exchange needs to investigate why. Time will tell. Dow rejected a 200 point break to close 14 higher, 24,859, but be aware that the air pocket to the down side has been opened. Bonds gain 31 tics on some dovish FED speak, 142.07.
5/22
Corn up a couple cents to 404 3/4. Wheat was the leader today, gaining 14 1/4 to 521 1/2. Beans up 5 1/4 to settle 1030 1/2. Was some more posturing between President Trump and China concerning N. Korea, but market took it in stride. Rice up 10 cents, 1233 and a solid gain in open interest, so we probably have a new long and an existing short that just sold 300 contracts in the hole. Should be interesting. Dow drops 157 to 24,845 and bonds have another dull trade, off a tic, 141.08.
Corn up a couple cents to 404 3/4. Wheat was the leader today, gaining 14 1/4 to 521 1/2. Beans up 5 1/4 to settle 1030 1/2. Was some more posturing between President Trump and China concerning N. Korea, but market took it in stride. Rice up 10 cents, 1233 and a solid gain in open interest, so we probably have a new long and an existing short that just sold 300 contracts in the hole. Should be interesting. Dow drops 157 to 24,845 and bonds have another dull trade, off a tic, 141.08.
5/21
Monday started off with all the grains running on a China deal, but in the end the market rewarded only beans, as beans are expected to be the biggest winner. 1025 1/4 , gains of 26 3/4 for the day, but there were a few things in the numbers that catch your eye. Open interest actually dropped on the day, and meal spreads weakened. Don't want to see that repeated today. Wheat down 11 on solid rains over the weekend, 507 1/4 and spreads weakening there as well. Thanks, variable rate storage. Corn closed up 1/4, 402 3/4. Rice off another 9 1/2 to 1223 as money management selling is egged on by a well written computer program, at least for now. Its prudent not to let one trade sink the ship, but I cant believe that this is the end of this years show. Surprising how quiet it has gotten since the $6 cash traded. Dow up 281 to 25,002 and just happy that we aren't sparring with china today, while the bonds buy time up 3 tics to 141.09.
Monday started off with all the grains running on a China deal, but in the end the market rewarded only beans, as beans are expected to be the biggest winner. 1025 1/4 , gains of 26 3/4 for the day, but there were a few things in the numbers that catch your eye. Open interest actually dropped on the day, and meal spreads weakened. Don't want to see that repeated today. Wheat down 11 on solid rains over the weekend, 507 1/4 and spreads weakening there as well. Thanks, variable rate storage. Corn closed up 1/4, 402 3/4. Rice off another 9 1/2 to 1223 as money management selling is egged on by a well written computer program, at least for now. Its prudent not to let one trade sink the ship, but I cant believe that this is the end of this years show. Surprising how quiet it has gotten since the $6 cash traded. Dow up 281 to 25,002 and just happy that we aren't sparring with china today, while the bonds buy time up 3 tics to 141.09.
5/18
Wheat in a weather market trade, and up 20 3/4 to 518 1/4 to set the grain trading tone. Corn has a list of stories to support the 7 1/4 gain, 402 1/2, from China backing off the sorghum tariff, to SA weather, to exports, to domestic use. Beans up 3 1/2 to 998 1/2 with some now putting year end carry over not as burdensome and a large back half export pull being discussed. I believe these same people are discounting how the world will be replacing that protein with many, and any other sources. My stance is still that this much strength in beans into planting has shot the crop in the foot. It can and still run the race, but moving forward with a limp and a wound. Rice saw capitulation Friday and a program system that aided the weak and nervous longs out the door. 1232 1/2 and down 17 on the day. As an exporter, why wait to ship until new crop if the market is going to represent that there is all this old crop rice available to sell today? As a domestic miller, why not stay hand to mouth, as there must be plenty of inventory still in farmer hands? Time will tell, but futures going off a buck under cash says bad things about convergence, way worse that a buck over. Dow stumbled around for a 17 point higher close, 24,721, and bonds gained 24 tics to 141.06. I believe the bonds are going to trade in a downward channel range, so this would be a bad year to chase highs or lows, either with trades or stops.
Wheat in a weather market trade, and up 20 3/4 to 518 1/4 to set the grain trading tone. Corn has a list of stories to support the 7 1/4 gain, 402 1/2, from China backing off the sorghum tariff, to SA weather, to exports, to domestic use. Beans up 3 1/2 to 998 1/2 with some now putting year end carry over not as burdensome and a large back half export pull being discussed. I believe these same people are discounting how the world will be replacing that protein with many, and any other sources. My stance is still that this much strength in beans into planting has shot the crop in the foot. It can and still run the race, but moving forward with a limp and a wound. Rice saw capitulation Friday and a program system that aided the weak and nervous longs out the door. 1232 1/2 and down 17 on the day. As an exporter, why wait to ship until new crop if the market is going to represent that there is all this old crop rice available to sell today? As a domestic miller, why not stay hand to mouth, as there must be plenty of inventory still in farmer hands? Time will tell, but futures going off a buck under cash says bad things about convergence, way worse that a buck over. Dow stumbled around for a 17 point higher close, 24,721, and bonds gained 24 tics to 141.06. I believe the bonds are going to trade in a downward channel range, so this would be a bad year to chase highs or lows, either with trades or stops.
5/17
Rice back to 1250, off a nickel and spec selling to commercial short again. Stochastics getting low, but market sure isn't bouncing so far. China supposedly opening the door for ag, and that would be welcome for all the grains, but rice work to get into china might be a sleeping gem. Corn getting close to my support, off 4 to 395 1/4. Wheat well off highs but still gains 3 1/4, closing 497 1/2. Beans drop 4 3/4 to 995. Dow off 36 to 24,704, and bonds quietly leak another 16 tics to 140.14.
Rice back to 1250, off a nickel and spec selling to commercial short again. Stochastics getting low, but market sure isn't bouncing so far. China supposedly opening the door for ag, and that would be welcome for all the grains, but rice work to get into china might be a sleeping gem. Corn getting close to my support, off 4 to 395 1/4. Wheat well off highs but still gains 3 1/4, closing 497 1/2. Beans drop 4 3/4 to 995. Dow off 36 to 24,704, and bonds quietly leak another 16 tics to 140.14.
5/16
Rice seller seems to hit a wall around 1250 and was less aggressive today, with a 6 1/2 cent bounce to 1255. Wheat also gained 3/4 to 494 1/4. Corn set back 3 cents to 399 1/4. Beans followed meal down today, losing 19 to 999 3/4. Dow up 80 to close 24,740, and bonds off 4 tics to 140.30. If this volcano fires up in Hawaii, could make for some interesting weather stories. That might be keeping some of the sellers out of the grains for now. Mighty early in the season for the highs to be in.
Rice seller seems to hit a wall around 1250 and was less aggressive today, with a 6 1/2 cent bounce to 1255. Wheat also gained 3/4 to 494 1/4. Corn set back 3 cents to 399 1/4. Beans followed meal down today, losing 19 to 999 3/4. Dow up 80 to close 24,740, and bonds off 4 tics to 140.30. If this volcano fires up in Hawaii, could make for some interesting weather stories. That might be keeping some of the sellers out of the grains for now. Mighty early in the season for the highs to be in.
5/15
People starting to discuss corn balance sheet more, although there is talk that acres will increase in the next report. Corn gains 5 3/4 back up to 402 1/4 for the day. Wheat ran out of sellers and gave us a Monday, Tuesday type trade, early in the season for that, but remember it as a marker for the year, because the computers sure will. 493 1/2, plus 2 1/4. Meal was off $5 but beans held their own and closed up a penny, 1018 3/4. Rice off 2 to 1248 1/2 as pressure below 12.50 gets met with commercial ownership. Multi-day dow rally came to an end, 24,660, off 226, and inflation talk hit the bonds for a point and 22 tics lower, 141.02. This is not a new theme in the bonds, and it will be repeated.
People starting to discuss corn balance sheet more, although there is talk that acres will increase in the next report. Corn gains 5 3/4 back up to 402 1/4 for the day. Wheat ran out of sellers and gave us a Monday, Tuesday type trade, early in the season for that, but remember it as a marker for the year, because the computers sure will. 493 1/2, plus 2 1/4. Meal was off $5 but beans held their own and closed up a penny, 1018 3/4. Rice off 2 to 1248 1/2 as pressure below 12.50 gets met with commercial ownership. Multi-day dow rally came to an end, 24,660, off 226, and inflation talk hit the bonds for a point and 22 tics lower, 141.02. This is not a new theme in the bonds, and it will be repeated.
5/14
Messy Monday. Wheat down 7 1/2 to 491 1/4. That kept a lid on corn at unchanged, 396 1/2. Beans rallied on positive china talk to 1017 3/4, plus 14 1/2. Meal up strong to lead the way. Rice had the upside sell stops run at night, when most aren't looking, only to get hammered lower during day trading hours into iceberg buying around 1250, and settling 1250 1/2. May futures went off a buck under cash. For all those whining about the board being too high and not converging in corn and beans, be carful what you wish for. Its not too hard to see that what you will get will be month after month and year after year of underpriced cash markets. Dow up 63 to 24,886 and bonds drop 12 tics to 142.24.
Messy Monday. Wheat down 7 1/2 to 491 1/4. That kept a lid on corn at unchanged, 396 1/2. Beans rallied on positive china talk to 1017 3/4, plus 14 1/2. Meal up strong to lead the way. Rice had the upside sell stops run at night, when most aren't looking, only to get hammered lower during day trading hours into iceberg buying around 1250, and settling 1250 1/2. May futures went off a buck under cash. For all those whining about the board being too high and not converging in corn and beans, be carful what you wish for. Its not too hard to see that what you will get will be month after month and year after year of underpriced cash markets. Dow up 63 to 24,886 and bonds drop 12 tics to 142.24.
5/11
Friday trade weak across the grains as planting continues and more planting expected over the weekend. Corn off 5 1/2 to 396 1/2. Wheat drops 7 3/4 to 498 3/4, and the may/July wheat spread collapses back to basic carry. Meal weak and beans soft all day, 1265 1/2 settle, down 18. Rice bear trap set and triggered, ultimately closing up 13 to 1265 1/2 on a reversal. Dow strong and up 131 to 24,823 and bonds pretty dead, off 2 tics to 143.04.
Friday trade weak across the grains as planting continues and more planting expected over the weekend. Corn off 5 1/2 to 396 1/2. Wheat drops 7 3/4 to 498 3/4, and the may/July wheat spread collapses back to basic carry. Meal weak and beans soft all day, 1265 1/2 settle, down 18. Rice bear trap set and triggered, ultimately closing up 13 to 1265 1/2 on a reversal. Dow strong and up 131 to 24,823 and bonds pretty dead, off 2 tics to 143.04.
5/10
Exports started Thursday on soft footing, but reasonable wasde numbers in corn and beans helped provide some volatility and small strength in beans. Corn wound up off 3/4 to 402 while wheat dropped 4 to 506 1/2. Beans gained 5 1/2 to 1021 1/4. I took the rice number as neutral, but the market spec bear saw weakness and ran with it, 1252 1/2 and off 14 1/2. I believe the bear will be met with more commercial buying than he can stand from here on, but he will have to try to put out a poor weekly close to paint the chart. Dow up 190 to 24,692 as talk of decent earnings and large expected buybacks support the equites. Bonds continue the churn, gaining 17 tics to 143.06.
Exports started Thursday on soft footing, but reasonable wasde numbers in corn and beans helped provide some volatility and small strength in beans. Corn wound up off 3/4 to 402 while wheat dropped 4 to 506 1/2. Beans gained 5 1/2 to 1021 1/4. I took the rice number as neutral, but the market spec bear saw weakness and ran with it, 1252 1/2 and off 14 1/2. I believe the bear will be met with more commercial buying than he can stand from here on, but he will have to try to put out a poor weekly close to paint the chart. Dow up 190 to 24,692 as talk of decent earnings and large expected buybacks support the equites. Bonds continue the churn, gaining 17 tics to 143.06.
5/09
Another evening up day in front of WASDE and exports tomorrow. Don't expect much for exports, and they have taken a bit out of the report by postponing the ex china updates. Corn off 1/2 cent to 402 3/4. Wheat closes 4 lower, 510 1/2. Beans drop 4 1/2 to 1015 3/4. Rice is pushed down 8 1/2 into more commercial buying, 1267, although there were 340 puts traded, mostly hidden on the floor unless I missed it. They are currently looking at increasing storage or variable rate storage for beans and corn. If you are reading this, you might want to contact the exchange to voice your displeasure as a farmer. Dow up 195 to 24,502 and bonds drop 23 tics to 142.21
Another evening up day in front of WASDE and exports tomorrow. Don't expect much for exports, and they have taken a bit out of the report by postponing the ex china updates. Corn off 1/2 cent to 402 3/4. Wheat closes 4 lower, 510 1/2. Beans drop 4 1/2 to 1015 3/4. Rice is pushed down 8 1/2 into more commercial buying, 1267, although there were 340 puts traded, mostly hidden on the floor unless I missed it. They are currently looking at increasing storage or variable rate storage for beans and corn. If you are reading this, you might want to contact the exchange to voice your displeasure as a farmer. Dow up 195 to 24,502 and bonds drop 23 tics to 142.21
5/08
Everything settled down today and recovered a bit of Mondays drop as people reposition for the WASDE report on Thursday. Corn gets back 2 1/2 to 403 1/4. Wheat up 3 to 514 1/2. Beans recover 8 3/4 and close 1020 1/4. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1275 1/2 and we are getting flat price may buying, spread strength, and receipt cancellations. The spec might actually be getting short again based on volume numbers. The commercial trader is playing some PHD like a fiddle. That east coast brilliance doesn't seem to shine so well in the delta, but I don't think you will ever get an Ivy league player to realize its really him that's wrong. Disclaimer: I went to Arkansas, so I'm biased. Dow bouncing around with President Trump cancelling the Iran deal, but closing 6 higher, 24,307. Bonds off 6 tics, 143.12 . Wonder if we can get Iran to give back the pallets of cash the last administration gave them to rekindle the middle east holy war.
Everything settled down today and recovered a bit of Mondays drop as people reposition for the WASDE report on Thursday. Corn gets back 2 1/2 to 403 1/4. Wheat up 3 to 514 1/2. Beans recover 8 3/4 and close 1020 1/4. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1275 1/2 and we are getting flat price may buying, spread strength, and receipt cancellations. The spec might actually be getting short again based on volume numbers. The commercial trader is playing some PHD like a fiddle. That east coast brilliance doesn't seem to shine so well in the delta, but I don't think you will ever get an Ivy league player to realize its really him that's wrong. Disclaimer: I went to Arkansas, so I'm biased. Dow bouncing around with President Trump cancelling the Iran deal, but closing 6 higher, 24,307. Bonds off 6 tics, 143.12 . Wonder if we can get Iran to give back the pallets of cash the last administration gave them to rekindle the middle east holy war.
5/07
Tough trade Monday as planting progress and an overweight spec long put pressure on the grains all day. Of note, wheat and corn settled about even with last Monday. Corn off 5 1/2 to 400 3/4 and wheat down 14 3/4 to 511 1/2. Beans took it on the chin as domestic fundamentals, fear of china, and a weak meal trade all conspired to push 25 1/4 lower., 1011 1/2. Large spec started dumping his long in rice into commercial support, 16 lower close, 1277. Dow bounced around a nd closed 24,301, up 73 while the bonds basically took the day off, off 3 tics to 143.18.
Tough trade Monday as planting progress and an overweight spec long put pressure on the grains all day. Of note, wheat and corn settled about even with last Monday. Corn off 5 1/2 to 400 3/4 and wheat down 14 3/4 to 511 1/2. Beans took it on the chin as domestic fundamentals, fear of china, and a weak meal trade all conspired to push 25 1/4 lower., 1011 1/2. Large spec started dumping his long in rice into commercial support, 16 lower close, 1277. Dow bounced around a nd closed 24,301, up 73 while the bonds basically took the day off, off 3 tics to 143.18.
5/04
Friday grain trade just taking away Thursdays strength. Meal off $5, which let beans drop 16 1/2 to 1036 3/4. Radar is up for the beans. Wheat gives back 11 3/4 to 526 1/4. Corn off 1 3/4 to 406 1/4. Rice quietly down 8 1/2 to 1293 as the cash boys are knocking on doors a little firmer. Seems like the few deliveries we are having are from weak hands to strong. Bonds a dull 3 tics up to 143.21. Buffett is buying, especially apple, and the dow futures light up 318 to end the week at 24,228. Expect some shuffling in the grains pre WASDE report on the 10th, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some strength in the dow with a Buffett stamp of approval.
Friday grain trade just taking away Thursdays strength. Meal off $5, which let beans drop 16 1/2 to 1036 3/4. Radar is up for the beans. Wheat gives back 11 3/4 to 526 1/4. Corn off 1 3/4 to 406 1/4. Rice quietly down 8 1/2 to 1293 as the cash boys are knocking on doors a little firmer. Seems like the few deliveries we are having are from weak hands to strong. Bonds a dull 3 tics up to 143.21. Buffett is buying, especially apple, and the dow futures light up 318 to end the week at 24,228. Expect some shuffling in the grains pre WASDE report on the 10th, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some strength in the dow with a Buffett stamp of approval.
5/03
Corn up 3 to 408. No one wants to lead any selling for now, with more starting to understand the global and domestic story that is slowly unfolding. Wheat gains 11 1/4 to 538 as we look at potentially a disaster in wheat production. Beans brush off lower trade late on talks that China has offered to relax their tariff, 1053 1/4 and regaining all yesterdays loss, plus 10 1/4. Rice stalled at 1301 1/2, minus 1 1/2. Dow shakes off sellers to gain 85 at the close, 23,910. Bonds up 10 tics to 143.18. The way the bonds have stabilized and bank stocks have faded, I'm starting to lean towards a slower and lower fed moving forward.
Corn up 3 to 408. No one wants to lead any selling for now, with more starting to understand the global and domestic story that is slowly unfolding. Wheat gains 11 1/4 to 538 as we look at potentially a disaster in wheat production. Beans brush off lower trade late on talks that China has offered to relax their tariff, 1053 1/4 and regaining all yesterdays loss, plus 10 1/4. Rice stalled at 1301 1/2, minus 1 1/2. Dow shakes off sellers to gain 85 at the close, 23,910. Bonds up 10 tics to 143.18. The way the bonds have stabilized and bank stocks have faded, I'm starting to lean towards a slower and lower fed moving forward.
5/02
Corn takes a breather, 405 and off 3/4. Wheat down 2 1/2 to 526 3/4 and we have a fair amount of air under the market to back and fill if wheat so chooses. Meal slips and beans take the worst of it, 1043, down 10 1/4. Rice bear had no new bullets and we saw a 14 1/2 cent bounce to 1303. Small spread buying kept the may in play, and we might get some new info out of the trade in the next day or two. Doesn't look to be just the bankers in the trade. Dow couldn't bounce today, 23,825 and down 246. Bonds up 3 tics to 143.08.
Corn takes a breather, 405 and off 3/4. Wheat down 2 1/2 to 526 3/4 and we have a fair amount of air under the market to back and fill if wheat so chooses. Meal slips and beans take the worst of it, 1043, down 10 1/4. Rice bear had no new bullets and we saw a 14 1/2 cent bounce to 1303. Small spread buying kept the may in play, and we might get some new info out of the trade in the next day or two. Doesn't look to be just the bankers in the trade. Dow couldn't bounce today, 23,825 and down 246. Bonds up 3 tics to 143.08.
5/01
Weather around the globe driving the grains today. Wheat up 18 3/4 to 529 1/4 on stories out of Europe and black sea region. Corn has SA influences driving a nickel higher, 405 3/4. Meal up another 10 bucks and dragging beans to 1053 1/4, up 4 3/4. Rice takes a sucker punch with deliveries getting finished awfully early this cycle, down 18 1/2 to 1288 1/2. Unless the club can get large specs to give in soon, look for another leg up soon. Not sure the big money will fall for a painted chart, regardless of who holds the brush. Dow got hammered early, but rallied over 300 to settle 24,071, minus 60. Bonds thinking the little bounce may be done, 143.05, down 22 tics.
Weather around the globe driving the grains today. Wheat up 18 3/4 to 529 1/4 on stories out of Europe and black sea region. Corn has SA influences driving a nickel higher, 405 3/4. Meal up another 10 bucks and dragging beans to 1053 1/4, up 4 3/4. Rice takes a sucker punch with deliveries getting finished awfully early this cycle, down 18 1/2 to 1288 1/2. Unless the club can get large specs to give in soon, look for another leg up soon. Not sure the big money will fall for a painted chart, regardless of who holds the brush. Dow got hammered early, but rallied over 300 to settle 24,071, minus 60. Bonds thinking the little bounce may be done, 143.05, down 22 tics.
4/30
Month end all over the place, depending on the flavor. Switching to July for the grains moving forward. Corn off the highs and term delivers 500 new receipts, but still 2 1/4 higher, 400 3/4. Wheat puts on another strong day, may screaming and taking all the carry out of the spread, July up 12 to 510 1/2. Beans fade 7 3/4 to 1048 1/2. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1307, but the may/July spread fails to carry, even with cancellations after the close. Industry let the bankers back in today. Makes no sense. When things are run this sloppy, someone steps in to fill the void. Dow off 152 to 24,131 and bonds up 19 to 143.27. Financial churn continues.
Month end all over the place, depending on the flavor. Switching to July for the grains moving forward. Corn off the highs and term delivers 500 new receipts, but still 2 1/4 higher, 400 3/4. Wheat puts on another strong day, may screaming and taking all the carry out of the spread, July up 12 to 510 1/2. Beans fade 7 3/4 to 1048 1/2. Rice up 6 1/2 to 1307, but the may/July spread fails to carry, even with cancellations after the close. Industry let the bankers back in today. Makes no sense. When things are run this sloppy, someone steps in to fill the void. Dow off 152 to 24,131 and bonds up 19 to 143.27. Financial churn continues.
4/27
Friday delivery trade showed some of the short vulnerability. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 389 1/2 on 47K of liquidation. Beans had 17k of position liquidation and still gained 17 cents, 1045. Meal put on another show, gaining $14. Beans were juiced on talk of a china delegation with a Trump olive branch. I personally believe that the world has figured out that the USA give away programs of the past are ending, and some of a good thing is better than none of a good thing. China as a world power folds quickly without US trade, and they know it. We still have too much capacity to bring manufacturing back onshore, and the intellectual capacity spigot would be turned off if the trade capacity got shut off. Wheat gains 14 3/4 to 495 1/2. Front month spread gained almost 6 cents. Rice up a dime to 1281 as the bear had no follow thru. Dow tried to break, but ultimately bounced to 33 lower, 24,283. Bonds gain 28 tics to 143.08.
Friday delivery trade showed some of the short vulnerability. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 389 1/2 on 47K of liquidation. Beans had 17k of position liquidation and still gained 17 cents, 1045. Meal put on another show, gaining $14. Beans were juiced on talk of a china delegation with a Trump olive branch. I personally believe that the world has figured out that the USA give away programs of the past are ending, and some of a good thing is better than none of a good thing. China as a world power folds quickly without US trade, and they know it. We still have too much capacity to bring manufacturing back onshore, and the intellectual capacity spigot would be turned off if the trade capacity got shut off. Wheat gains 14 3/4 to 495 1/2. Front month spread gained almost 6 cents. Rice up a dime to 1281 as the bear had no follow thru. Dow tried to break, but ultimately bounced to 33 lower, 24,283. Bonds gain 28 tics to 143.08.
4/26
Day started with so-so exports, and then to position squaring in front of first notice for may positions. Longs need to be rolled or liquidated by tomorrows close. Corn lost 1/2 cent with 48k contracts liquidated, which was positive in my eyes, 386. Wheat gives back part of the rally to 480 3/4, down 5 1/2. Meal hitting 380 again and keeping beans solid even with large pre delivery liquidation, 1/2 higher, 1028. Rice spreads give in and futures tank 39 1/2 to 1271, below cash. May open interest down under 500 contracts, so there aren't many spec longs left to fleece. Dow futures up 238 to 24,316 as the churn continues, and bonds gain 20 tics to 142.12.
Day started with so-so exports, and then to position squaring in front of first notice for may positions. Longs need to be rolled or liquidated by tomorrows close. Corn lost 1/2 cent with 48k contracts liquidated, which was positive in my eyes, 386. Wheat gives back part of the rally to 480 3/4, down 5 1/2. Meal hitting 380 again and keeping beans solid even with large pre delivery liquidation, 1/2 higher, 1028. Rice spreads give in and futures tank 39 1/2 to 1271, below cash. May open interest down under 500 contracts, so there aren't many spec longs left to fleece. Dow futures up 238 to 24,316 as the churn continues, and bonds gain 20 tics to 142.12.
4/25
Wheat leads Wednesday grains higher, 486 1/4, plus 13 3/4. Corn up 5 1/4 to 386 1/2. Beans struggled the most, but still up 5 1/4 to end the day 1027 1/4. Talk of a delegation headed to China to shore up the bean trade provided some room for the bulls. Rice slips 2 1/2 to 1310 1/2 as we shuffle the long spec from may to July. Dow up 94 to 24,078 and bonds drop another 25 tics to 141.24. Exports should set the tone early tomorrow.
Wheat leads Wednesday grains higher, 486 1/4, plus 13 3/4. Corn up 5 1/4 to 386 1/2. Beans struggled the most, but still up 5 1/4 to end the day 1027 1/4. Talk of a delegation headed to China to shore up the bean trade provided some room for the bulls. Rice slips 2 1/2 to 1310 1/2 as we shuffle the long spec from may to July. Dow up 94 to 24,078 and bonds drop another 25 tics to 141.24. Exports should set the tone early tomorrow.
4/24
Corn bounce continues, 381 1/4, gaining 2 3/4. Wheat bounces off its floor with some vigor, up 11 to 472 1/2. Beans trying to make a floor, 1022 1/4, plus 1 1/2. The pre delivery shuffle continues in the rice as cash boys are out hunting supplies. 1313, up 6 1/2 and the may/July spread way away from carry and pretty well bid, exposing the short players who really don't fully understand what and why. Dow futures take a punch in the noes losing 430 to 23,984. Bonds drop 14 tics to 142.17 and that throws up a red flag to me. Either the dow trade is pure noise or bonds are preparing for another leg down. I'm leaning to higher interest rates.
Corn bounce continues, 381 1/4, gaining 2 3/4. Wheat bounces off its floor with some vigor, up 11 to 472 1/2. Beans trying to make a floor, 1022 1/4, plus 1 1/2. The pre delivery shuffle continues in the rice as cash boys are out hunting supplies. 1313, up 6 1/2 and the may/July spread way away from carry and pretty well bid, exposing the short players who really don't fully understand what and why. Dow futures take a punch in the noes losing 430 to 23,984. Bonds drop 14 tics to 142.17 and that throws up a red flag to me. Either the dow trade is pure noise or bonds are preparing for another leg down. I'm leaning to higher interest rates.
4/23
Slow planting start and some people finally talking about balance sheet math helping put a floor in corn, plus 2 cents, 378 1/2. Wheat stabilizing off 1 3/4 to 461 1/2. Beans slip 8 to 1020 3/4 as meal drops to 371. Folks, that still high priced protein. Long term good for DDGs and any other source. Rice up 7 1/2 to 1306 1/2 as some of the $13 calls need coverage. Open interest in may down to 2000 so the deck is being sorted. Shorts have to pay even or so to get out this week, next week, who knows. Dow up and down 100, but ends the day 24,414, off 19. Bonds close off 4 tics and nearing the bottom of this wave, unless we get some kind of unforeseen inflation indicator, 142.31. Wouldn't try to catch the knife, but near the days lows isn't a bad place to take some profits.
Slow planting start and some people finally talking about balance sheet math helping put a floor in corn, plus 2 cents, 378 1/2. Wheat stabilizing off 1 3/4 to 461 1/2. Beans slip 8 to 1020 3/4 as meal drops to 371. Folks, that still high priced protein. Long term good for DDGs and any other source. Rice up 7 1/2 to 1306 1/2 as some of the $13 calls need coverage. Open interest in may down to 2000 so the deck is being sorted. Shorts have to pay even or so to get out this week, next week, who knows. Dow up and down 100, but ends the day 24,414, off 19. Bonds close off 4 tics and nearing the bottom of this wave, unless we get some kind of unforeseen inflation indicator, 142.31. Wouldn't try to catch the knife, but near the days lows isn't a bad place to take some profits.
4/20
Weak Friday across the board. Wheat loses 13 1/2 to 463 1/4, a penny over Mondays close. Beans drop to 1028 3/4, down 8 1/2 and hitting both sides of the 1030 options strike. Rice closes 1299, off 9 and conveniently one cent below the large open interest $13 calls. Dow down 204 to 24,433 and bonds drop another 22 tics to 143.03. I'll go over volume and open interest numbers over the weekend and try to put out something Sunday night via text if anything grabs me. Have a good planting weekend.
Weak Friday across the board. Wheat loses 13 1/2 to 463 1/4, a penny over Mondays close. Beans drop to 1028 3/4, down 8 1/2 and hitting both sides of the 1030 options strike. Rice closes 1299, off 9 and conveniently one cent below the large open interest $13 calls. Dow down 204 to 24,433 and bonds drop another 22 tics to 143.03. I'll go over volume and open interest numbers over the weekend and try to put out something Sunday night via text if anything grabs me. Have a good planting weekend.
4/19
Corn leaks another penny to 382. Beans drop 4 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Wheat gains 1 1/2 to 476 3/4. Options expire tomorrow and there was big may liquidation in all the grains. Watch for which strike acts as the magnet. Rice off 9 1/2 to 1308 as the spread leaks and we have lots of 1300 calls that the seller doesn't want exercised. Dow off 96 as some think this leg of the rally is tired, 24,637. Bonds continue the break as the 10 year hounds want 3 percent. 143.25, down a point and 5 tics.
Corn leaks another penny to 382. Beans drop 4 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Wheat gains 1 1/2 to 476 3/4. Options expire tomorrow and there was big may liquidation in all the grains. Watch for which strike acts as the magnet. Rice off 9 1/2 to 1308 as the spread leaks and we have lots of 1300 calls that the seller doesn't want exercised. Dow off 96 as some think this leg of the rally is tired, 24,637. Bonds continue the break as the 10 year hounds want 3 percent. 143.25, down a point and 5 tics.
4/18
Wheat up 9 today, 475 1/4 with weather stories the lead again. Oats found a bid as well. Corn settles 383, up 2 3/4 with help from wheat, E 15 talk, and Japan opening up to ethanol imports. Who says Trump isn't opening long closed doors for the farmer. Bad trade deals for America can be messy to unwind, but thank goodness someone is actually accomplishing what they promise. Add Japan to the list. Lets hope for progress with Canada and Mexico, and I suspect we will get it. They both need our food production, and neither can afford the dent we could put in their auto industry business with us. Meal couldn't hold, losing $4.50 and taking beans down 4 1/4 to 1041 3/4. Rice bear had no follow thru again, and we closed 2 cents higher, 1317 1/2. Dow in a lackluster day to 24,733, up 26. Bonds did roll over to 144.30, a point and 3 tics lower.
Wheat up 9 today, 475 1/4 with weather stories the lead again. Oats found a bid as well. Corn settles 383, up 2 3/4 with help from wheat, E 15 talk, and Japan opening up to ethanol imports. Who says Trump isn't opening long closed doors for the farmer. Bad trade deals for America can be messy to unwind, but thank goodness someone is actually accomplishing what they promise. Add Japan to the list. Lets hope for progress with Canada and Mexico, and I suspect we will get it. They both need our food production, and neither can afford the dent we could put in their auto industry business with us. Meal couldn't hold, losing $4.50 and taking beans down 4 1/4 to 1041 3/4. Rice bear had no follow thru again, and we closed 2 cents higher, 1317 1/2. Dow in a lackluster day to 24,733, up 26. Bonds did roll over to 144.30, a point and 3 tics lower.
4/17
Wheat and beans each bounced 4 cents on the day, 466 1/4 in the wheat with weather talk, and 1046 in the beans on strong meal trade. Corn slips another 2 1/4 to 380 1/4 with long liquidation the lead story, and sorghum tariff worries coming out of the Chinese sales. Sorghum makes ethanol, and that's a competitor to corn. A small percent, but still. Rice up a dime after bear selling had no follow thru, 1315 1/2. Cash left out there seems to be less than anyone expects, and the longs are in a good spot for a domestic squeeze. Hard to justify selling 500 contracts of may to protect 300 calls. What would be interesting is if the may futures settle just under $13, but the 13 calls are elected anyway. Most don't realize it because it rarely happens, but it is legal to exercise an out of the money option. Say I was a big exporter with contracts in hand, I could put one heck of a squeeze on. Dow futures up 144 to 24,707 and bonds gain 18 tics to 146.01. This is nearing the top of range for bonds unless the fed has changed course, but isn't letting the commoner know until the money banks and GS reset their positions.
Wheat and beans each bounced 4 cents on the day, 466 1/4 in the wheat with weather talk, and 1046 in the beans on strong meal trade. Corn slips another 2 1/4 to 380 1/4 with long liquidation the lead story, and sorghum tariff worries coming out of the Chinese sales. Sorghum makes ethanol, and that's a competitor to corn. A small percent, but still. Rice up a dime after bear selling had no follow thru, 1315 1/2. Cash left out there seems to be less than anyone expects, and the longs are in a good spot for a domestic squeeze. Hard to justify selling 500 contracts of may to protect 300 calls. What would be interesting is if the may futures settle just under $13, but the 13 calls are elected anyway. Most don't realize it because it rarely happens, but it is legal to exercise an out of the money option. Say I was a big exporter with contracts in hand, I could put one heck of a squeeze on. Dow futures up 144 to 24,707 and bonds gain 18 tics to 146.01. This is nearing the top of range for bonds unless the fed has changed course, but isn't letting the commoner know until the money banks and GS reset their positions.
4/16
Monday brought more snow, but weakness to the grains. Kind of counter intuitive to say snow in Chicago on April 16 is still good for the crops, but maybe it is the shot across the bow to show you just how little anything real matters in the day to day pricing of grains, now that the 3 legged stool that is the exchange only has two legs. Wheat down another 10 1/4 cents, 462 1/4. Beans drop 12 1/4 to 1042, which is still not a bad price for beans. Corn off 3 3/4 to 382 1/2 and the strongest, but in my mind has the best 6 month story, and you better be prepared to play the long game. Rice down 5 1/2 to 1305 1/2, and the commercials desperately want it below $13 on Friday to avoid the options position attached to that strike. Trouble is, too much lower allows for more exports, which the domestics woefully cant afford. Consumer side of rice has to walk a very fine tightrope for 5 months, and they don't have much recent experience, and no net. Dow technical are turned up, and futures gain 227 to 24,563. Bonds up 2 tics to 145.15.
Monday brought more snow, but weakness to the grains. Kind of counter intuitive to say snow in Chicago on April 16 is still good for the crops, but maybe it is the shot across the bow to show you just how little anything real matters in the day to day pricing of grains, now that the 3 legged stool that is the exchange only has two legs. Wheat down another 10 1/4 cents, 462 1/4. Beans drop 12 1/4 to 1042, which is still not a bad price for beans. Corn off 3 3/4 to 382 1/2 and the strongest, but in my mind has the best 6 month story, and you better be prepared to play the long game. Rice down 5 1/2 to 1305 1/2, and the commercials desperately want it below $13 on Friday to avoid the options position attached to that strike. Trouble is, too much lower allows for more exports, which the domestics woefully cant afford. Consumer side of rice has to walk a very fine tightrope for 5 months, and they don't have much recent experience, and no net. Dow technical are turned up, and futures gain 227 to 24,563. Bonds up 2 tics to 145.15.
4/13
Friday softness going into the weekend with accelerated planting thoughts. Corn off 2 1/2, 386 1/4, wheat down 8 1/2 to 472 1/2, and beans drop 6 1/2 to 1054 1/4. Rice buyer back and we are finally catching up to the quiet cash market bids. 1311, gaining 22 1/2. Early this week we will see the determination of the outside, commodity as an asset buyers across the board. Still cant reconcile the last WASDE numbers to march 1 stocks. Dow futures ended the week off 123 at 24,336, and bonds found 1 tic to close 145.13.
Friday softness going into the weekend with accelerated planting thoughts. Corn off 2 1/2, 386 1/4, wheat down 8 1/2 to 472 1/2, and beans drop 6 1/2 to 1054 1/4. Rice buyer back and we are finally catching up to the quiet cash market bids. 1311, gaining 22 1/2. Early this week we will see the determination of the outside, commodity as an asset buyers across the board. Still cant reconcile the last WASDE numbers to march 1 stocks. Dow futures ended the week off 123 at 24,336, and bonds found 1 tic to close 145.13.
4/12
Interesting exports, with great shipments but soft new sales in corn, wheat, and rice, while beans had ok ships but great sales. Corn gains 1 3/4 to 388 3/4. Wheat gives up another 6 1/4 to 481. Beans continue the rally to 1060 3/4, plus 13. Rice up 8 to 1288 1/2, but I see lots of friendly signals showing up in the way trade is being executed. Rice only should have seen a private text. Let me know if you didn't get anything. Dow futures rocked 292 higher, 24,459. Bonds down 24 to 145.12.
Interesting exports, with great shipments but soft new sales in corn, wheat, and rice, while beans had ok ships but great sales. Corn gains 1 3/4 to 388 3/4. Wheat gives up another 6 1/4 to 481. Beans continue the rally to 1060 3/4, plus 13. Rice up 8 to 1288 1/2, but I see lots of friendly signals showing up in the way trade is being executed. Rice only should have seen a private text. Let me know if you didn't get anything. Dow futures rocked 292 higher, 24,459. Bonds down 24 to 145.12.
4/11
Prelude to exports, and not a lot more today. Corn off 2 1/4, 387, wheat down 4 3/4, 487 1/4, and beans bump up 2 1/4 to 1047 3/4. Rice up 3 to 1280 1/2 with another solid round of spread rolls out to September. My guess is that inventory is well past half done. Markets are all looking for a shot in the arm, so lets see what sales are tomorrow. Dow off 184 to 24,167 and bonds gain 6 tics to 146.04.
Prelude to exports, and not a lot more today. Corn off 2 1/4, 387, wheat down 4 3/4, 487 1/4, and beans bump up 2 1/4 to 1047 3/4. Rice up 3 to 1280 1/2 with another solid round of spread rolls out to September. My guess is that inventory is well past half done. Markets are all looking for a shot in the arm, so lets see what sales are tomorrow. Dow off 184 to 24,167 and bonds gain 6 tics to 146.04.
4/10
WASDE didn't have anything unexpected in the grains to me, and corn slipped 1 1/2 to 389 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 492, but with declining open interest again. Beans up 3 to 1050, but meal faded nearly $6, and beans need meal to be good if we are going to sustain these prices. Rice exports cut, allowing an increase in carryover, but no one seems to know where all this carry over is, so we slipped only 4 1/2 to 1277 1/2. If it weren't for someone continuing to roll longs from May to September, I think we would have settled a dime higher. Dow futures up another 339 to 24,351 and bonds give up 4 tics to 145.30.
WASDE didn't have anything unexpected in the grains to me, and corn slipped 1 1/2 to 389 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 492, but with declining open interest again. Beans up 3 to 1050, but meal faded nearly $6, and beans need meal to be good if we are going to sustain these prices. Rice exports cut, allowing an increase in carryover, but no one seems to know where all this carry over is, so we slipped only 4 1/2 to 1277 1/2. If it weren't for someone continuing to roll longs from May to September, I think we would have settled a dime higher. Dow futures up another 339 to 24,351 and bonds give up 4 tics to 145.30.
4/09
Snow on the ground to start off Monday, and weather stories affecting spring planting and prep. Corn up 2 1/4 to 390 3/4. Wheat pops 18 1/2 to 490 3/4, but with declining open interest. Meal back up knocking on 390, and beans gain 13 1/4 to 1047. Rice up 32 1/2 on a solid rising open interest to 1282. Dow falls over 300 from the highs to settle 24,012, positive 86. Bonds up a tic to 146.02. Wasde report today should show large stocks, bigger demand, and a slightly increased carryover domestically, while SA corn should take a hit, Rice could get a friendly adjustment as well. I could make an easy case to move carry over down to 14.7, but history says that's unlikely.
Snow on the ground to start off Monday, and weather stories affecting spring planting and prep. Corn up 2 1/4 to 390 3/4. Wheat pops 18 1/2 to 490 3/4, but with declining open interest. Meal back up knocking on 390, and beans gain 13 1/4 to 1047. Rice up 32 1/2 on a solid rising open interest to 1282. Dow falls over 300 from the highs to settle 24,012, positive 86. Bonds up a tic to 146.02. Wasde report today should show large stocks, bigger demand, and a slightly increased carryover domestically, while SA corn should take a hit, Rice could get a friendly adjustment as well. I could make an easy case to move carry over down to 14.7, but history says that's unlikely.
4/06
Trade war fears beat on financials today, but the grains are happy to whistle past the graveyard, more afraid of weather here in America and demand thru ought the globe. Hearing of solid basis in all the grains, and the elevators don't bid without a home. Corn off a penny at 388 1/2. Wheat strong to the close with a 7 1/2 cent gain, 472 1/4. Meal gained a few bucks and that put the bean floor in, 1033 3/4, up 2 1/2. The club is getting a little more shaky in the rice every day, with different types of bids to hide the fact that cash is tight and they need the small amount of farmer rice left, sooner rather than later. The 10 1/2 cent gain to 1249 1/2 hides the fact that we chewed thru a bunch of new crop hedges, may/July strengthened with good volume, and all the offers posted last time we were here seem to have disappeared. Next week could be time for the piper to finally get paid. Dow gets hammered for 542 to 23,926 in a big boy churn market, and bonds gain 1.04 in what appeared to me to be a flight to quality, 146.01
Trade war fears beat on financials today, but the grains are happy to whistle past the graveyard, more afraid of weather here in America and demand thru ought the globe. Hearing of solid basis in all the grains, and the elevators don't bid without a home. Corn off a penny at 388 1/2. Wheat strong to the close with a 7 1/2 cent gain, 472 1/4. Meal gained a few bucks and that put the bean floor in, 1033 3/4, up 2 1/2. The club is getting a little more shaky in the rice every day, with different types of bids to hide the fact that cash is tight and they need the small amount of farmer rice left, sooner rather than later. The 10 1/2 cent gain to 1249 1/2 hides the fact that we chewed thru a bunch of new crop hedges, may/July strengthened with good volume, and all the offers posted last time we were here seem to have disappeared. Next week could be time for the piper to finally get paid. Dow gets hammered for 542 to 23,926 in a big boy churn market, and bonds gain 1.04 in what appeared to me to be a flight to quality, 146.01
4/05
Day started with not too stellar exports but a desire to bounce. Corn up 8 1/2 to 389 1/2. Wheat gains 9 to 464 3/4. Beans back up to the middle resistance area 1031 1/4. Meal didn't come along so much today. Rice off 3 to 1239, with 78 vs cash and 78 cancelled Riceland Waldenburg receipts. That pretty much it for Riceland receipts, with only 25 left total. Dow continues the rally for another 203 to 24,468. Bonds down another 26 tics to 144.29.
Day started with not too stellar exports but a desire to bounce. Corn up 8 1/2 to 389 1/2. Wheat gains 9 to 464 3/4. Beans back up to the middle resistance area 1031 1/4. Meal didn't come along so much today. Rice off 3 to 1239, with 78 vs cash and 78 cancelled Riceland Waldenburg receipts. That pretty much it for Riceland receipts, with only 25 left total. Dow continues the rally for another 203 to 24,468. Bonds down another 26 tics to 144.29.
4/04
Night trade got hammered with China tariff response, which included beans and corn products. Market set lows early and started the climb out. Corn off 7 1/2 to 381, which was 9 off the low. Wheat actually got higher on the day for a while but backed off 1 3/4 to 455 3/4 for a close. Beans off 22 3/4 to 1015 1/4, but that was 30 off the lows. Meal recovered to higher on the day, Rice 3 1/2 higher, 1242 with more new business talk and a lack of sellers. Dow had a violent 900 point range, but ended 281 higher, 24,265. Bonds tried to rally, but couldn't hold and wound up 5 tics lower, 145.23.
Night trade got hammered with China tariff response, which included beans and corn products. Market set lows early and started the climb out. Corn off 7 1/2 to 381, which was 9 off the low. Wheat actually got higher on the day for a while but backed off 1 3/4 to 455 3/4 for a close. Beans off 22 3/4 to 1015 1/4, but that was 30 off the lows. Meal recovered to higher on the day, Rice 3 1/2 higher, 1242 with more new business talk and a lack of sellers. Dow had a violent 900 point range, but ended 281 higher, 24,265. Bonds tried to rally, but couldn't hold and wound up 5 tics lower, 145.23.
4/03
Strong early, but a late dime fade left beans 2 1/2 higher, 1038. Same with corn, 388 1/2, plus 1 1/4. Wheat crop in trouble brings a 457 1/2 close, gaining 11 1/4. Put selling and some whispers of more export business got rice up 7 1/2 to 1238 1/2. 125 new longs in the market on an upturn gives some credit to the story, and some fear to a short chartist. My numbers have a lot of room to the upside in rice still this crop year. Spread seller seems to have filled up as well. Dow futures up 432 to 23,984, and bonds might have rolled over, losing 28 to 145.28. Bank stocks found their feet today. At least for the day.
Strong early, but a late dime fade left beans 2 1/2 higher, 1038. Same with corn, 388 1/2, plus 1 1/4. Wheat crop in trouble brings a 457 1/2 close, gaining 11 1/4. Put selling and some whispers of more export business got rice up 7 1/2 to 1238 1/2. 125 new longs in the market on an upturn gives some credit to the story, and some fear to a short chartist. My numbers have a lot of room to the upside in rice still this crop year. Spread seller seems to have filled up as well. Dow futures up 432 to 23,984, and bonds might have rolled over, losing 28 to 145.28. Bank stocks found their feet today. At least for the day.
4/02
Monday started strong in the grains, trying to follow thru on the pre-Easter trade. That didn't last long. President Trump tweeted against Amazon, which rolled the dow over, and China has started the chatter with ag tariffs. Corns real fundamentals held the best, only off 1/2 cent, 387 1/4. Wheat dropped 4 3/4 to 446 1/4. Beans lose 9 1/4 to 1035 1/2 and meal lost $6.70. Rice had some call selling and spread selling to push 4 1/2 lower, 1231. Dow was ugly and down 595 to 23,552. Bonds nothing really, plus 4 tics to settle 146.24. Looking for snow around Chicago tomorrow and lots of rain through out the delta. Weather isn't helping the new, lower acreage corn crop.
Monday started strong in the grains, trying to follow thru on the pre-Easter trade. That didn't last long. President Trump tweeted against Amazon, which rolled the dow over, and China has started the chatter with ag tariffs. Corns real fundamentals held the best, only off 1/2 cent, 387 1/4. Wheat dropped 4 3/4 to 446 1/4. Beans lose 9 1/4 to 1035 1/2 and meal lost $6.70. Rice had some call selling and spread selling to push 4 1/2 lower, 1231. Dow was ugly and down 595 to 23,552. Bonds nothing really, plus 4 tics to settle 146.24. Looking for snow around Chicago tomorrow and lots of rain through out the delta. Weather isn't helping the new, lower acreage corn crop.
3/29
Exports were nothing to get excited about. Neither were stocks. But reduced planting in corn and beans drove the market Thursday. Corn gained 14 1/4 to 387 3/4. Meal ripped and beans followed, up 26 3/4 to end the day at 1044 3/4. Chart looks great now and the computers are in control. But there are a lot of things in the background that muddy the water. I will be making internal posts thru the weekend to update my base of what I see as issues moving forward. Wheat only gained 5 1/2 on corns back, 451. Rice off 9 to 1235 1/2 with what was most certainly the most friendly report of the lot. Dow up 287 to 24,147 and back into very thin market space where ups and downdrafts can and will be frequent, and violent. Bonds gain another 24 tics to 146.20 as people are questioning if the fed will be able to move as aggressively as was previously assumed. Bank stocks are well off their highs as well.
Exports were nothing to get excited about. Neither were stocks. But reduced planting in corn and beans drove the market Thursday. Corn gained 14 1/4 to 387 3/4. Meal ripped and beans followed, up 26 3/4 to end the day at 1044 3/4. Chart looks great now and the computers are in control. But there are a lot of things in the background that muddy the water. I will be making internal posts thru the weekend to update my base of what I see as issues moving forward. Wheat only gained 5 1/2 on corns back, 451. Rice off 9 to 1235 1/2 with what was most certainly the most friendly report of the lot. Dow up 287 to 24,147 and back into very thin market space where ups and downdrafts can and will be frequent, and violent. Bonds gain another 24 tics to 146.20 as people are questioning if the fed will be able to move as aggressively as was previously assumed. Bank stocks are well off their highs as well.
3/28
Last day to clean up positions before the report finds corn off 1/2 to 373 1/2. Wheat drops 3 1/2 to 445 1/2. Beans down 1 1/2 to 1018. Rice unchanged, 1244 1/2. Everyone will be looking at the 11 o'clock numbers for a good 10 minutes, then if there is nothing earth shattering, the computers will take over again. Dow down 150 and up 200 but settle 23,860, plus 1. Bonds gain 8 tics on the noise to 145.28. More rice receipts leaving the street.
Last day to clean up positions before the report finds corn off 1/2 to 373 1/2. Wheat drops 3 1/2 to 445 1/2. Beans down 1 1/2 to 1018. Rice unchanged, 1244 1/2. Everyone will be looking at the 11 o'clock numbers for a good 10 minutes, then if there is nothing earth shattering, the computers will take over again. Dow down 150 and up 200 but settle 23,860, plus 1. Bonds gain 8 tics on the noise to 145.28. More rice receipts leaving the street.
3/27
Corn was flat on the day, 374. Wheat lost 5 1/4 to 449 and beans dropped 6 to 1019 1/2. Options boys took a fair amount of vol out of the market today. Hoping we might get a better read on that tomorrow. If I see something of note, I'll text during the day. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1244 1/2 as most of the September selling got chewed up and nary a soul is willing to sell May. The whole commercial world is waiting and praying on the long to fold, and so far, that's not happening. Probably wont either. Dow started solid but rolled over to lose 332 on the close, 23,859. Bonds got a flight to quality rally gaining 29 tics to 145.20. Thinking the bond rally might be getting long of the tooth here.
Corn was flat on the day, 374. Wheat lost 5 1/4 to 449 and beans dropped 6 to 1019 1/2. Options boys took a fair amount of vol out of the market today. Hoping we might get a better read on that tomorrow. If I see something of note, I'll text during the day. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1244 1/2 as most of the September selling got chewed up and nary a soul is willing to sell May. The whole commercial world is waiting and praying on the long to fold, and so far, that's not happening. Probably wont either. Dow started solid but rolled over to lose 332 on the close, 23,859. Bonds got a flight to quality rally gaining 29 tics to 145.20. Thinking the bond rally might be getting long of the tooth here.
3/26
Monday grain trade started firm across the board, but just couldn't hold. Wheat ended down 6 to 454 1/4. Corn slipped 3 1/4 to 374, and beans lost 2 3/4 to 1025 1/2. Rice was the outlier, gaining a dime to 1246. Everyone is trying to get positions where they need to be in front of what should be a bearish bean report, friendly corn, and possibly very friendly rice report this Thursday. Dow futures found its feet and popped 579 to 24,191, while bonds chopped around in under a 1 point range and closed 144.23, unchanged on the day.
Monday grain trade started firm across the board, but just couldn't hold. Wheat ended down 6 to 454 1/4. Corn slipped 3 1/4 to 374, and beans lost 2 3/4 to 1025 1/2. Rice was the outlier, gaining a dime to 1246. Everyone is trying to get positions where they need to be in front of what should be a bearish bean report, friendly corn, and possibly very friendly rice report this Thursday. Dow futures found its feet and popped 579 to 24,191, while bonds chopped around in under a 1 point range and closed 144.23, unchanged on the day.
3/23
Friday started soft with more tariff talk and pretty weak exports. By the end of the day markets bounced solidly for the close. Then the stock market rolled over and we will have an interesting Sunday night trade. Corn bounced 8 cents from the low to 377 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Wheat popped 14 from its doldrums to 460 1/4, gaining 4 1/2. Beans up nearly 20 from the hole to 1028 1/4, off 1 1/2. Not much of a show in rice on the surface, but a lot of posturing below, 1236 and a gain of 3 1/2 to end the day. Dow got ugly again to the tune of 351 lower at the bell, 23,612. Bonds were a non event, off a tic at 144.23. Have a good weekend.
Friday started soft with more tariff talk and pretty weak exports. By the end of the day markets bounced solidly for the close. Then the stock market rolled over and we will have an interesting Sunday night trade. Corn bounced 8 cents from the low to 377 1/4, plus 1 1/4. Wheat popped 14 from its doldrums to 460 1/4, gaining 4 1/2. Beans up nearly 20 from the hole to 1028 1/4, off 1 1/2. Not much of a show in rice on the surface, but a lot of posturing below, 1236 and a gain of 3 1/2 to end the day. Dow got ugly again to the tune of 351 lower at the bell, 23,612. Bonds were a non event, off a tic at 144.23. Have a good weekend.
3/22
Another choppy grain trade waiting on delayed exports. Corn up a penny to 376. Wheat gains 2 1/4 to 455 3/4. Beans settle a flat 1029 3/4. Rice up a penny to 1232 1/2. Beans couldn't really get anything going with a $3.50 meal rally and corn was weighted by another weak day in oats. More of the Trump staff shuffle and tariff fears moving to front stage, along with China now saying there will be retribution and a WTO complaint. Dow got killed to the tune of 764 points and on the lows, 23,963. Thank goodness for my bond charts to keep a guy from selling, 144.24 and a point and 8 tics gain to end the bond day. More of a flight to quality, which we haven't seen for quite some time. A sea change is taking place in the financial markets with all the tariff talk. Fed just raised rates and calling for 3-4 for this year and next. Now BOE says they will stay flat rates because of the effects of tariffs and overnight the opinion is that the fed may have just had its legs cut out. Bam. Its been 206 years since the English bankers exerted that kind of force on American soil, and they did it with a much more subtle tone this time. Be interesting to see how we as a government respond, but the financial markets just did.
Another choppy grain trade waiting on delayed exports. Corn up a penny to 376. Wheat gains 2 1/4 to 455 3/4. Beans settle a flat 1029 3/4. Rice up a penny to 1232 1/2. Beans couldn't really get anything going with a $3.50 meal rally and corn was weighted by another weak day in oats. More of the Trump staff shuffle and tariff fears moving to front stage, along with China now saying there will be retribution and a WTO complaint. Dow got killed to the tune of 764 points and on the lows, 23,963. Thank goodness for my bond charts to keep a guy from selling, 144.24 and a point and 8 tics gain to end the bond day. More of a flight to quality, which we haven't seen for quite some time. A sea change is taking place in the financial markets with all the tariff talk. Fed just raised rates and calling for 3-4 for this year and next. Now BOE says they will stay flat rates because of the effects of tariffs and overnight the opinion is that the fed may have just had its legs cut out. Bam. Its been 206 years since the English bankers exerted that kind of force on American soil, and they did it with a much more subtle tone this time. Be interesting to see how we as a government respond, but the financial markets just did.
3/21
Choppy day in the grains. Corn up 1/2 to 375. Wheat lower early but bounces to 453 1/2, plus 1/2 for a close. Beans up 1 1/2 to 1029 3/4 following some meal strength. Rice pops 11 to 1231 1/2 as someone bought calls and financed the trade with puts. Friday options expiration has us nocking on a 100 new contracts above 12.40, which in this market, causes some notice. That said, couldn't break the seal with even a one lot in the night trade. Dow falls 250 from the highs to close 38 lower, 24,727. Bonds off 11 more tics, but one of my charts is calling a low down here. Don't intend to buy it, but keeps the sell button at bay.
Choppy day in the grains. Corn up 1/2 to 375. Wheat lower early but bounces to 453 1/2, plus 1/2 for a close. Beans up 1 1/2 to 1029 3/4 following some meal strength. Rice pops 11 to 1231 1/2 as someone bought calls and financed the trade with puts. Friday options expiration has us nocking on a 100 new contracts above 12.40, which in this market, causes some notice. That said, couldn't break the seal with even a one lot in the night trade. Dow falls 250 from the highs to close 38 lower, 24,727. Bonds off 11 more tics, but one of my charts is calling a low down here. Don't intend to buy it, but keeps the sell button at bay.
3/20
Corn basing off 1/2 cent , 374 1/2. Wheat got a 2 1/4 cent bounce to 453. Beans rallied 5 3/4 to 1028 1/4. Rice off 8 to 1220 1/2 and finding bids from here. Final 3 receipts were delivered out of ottwell to close out a delayed settle march. Dow up 74 to 24,765 and bonds crest and roll over 22 tics to 143.27. Its bonds, no rally to much to sell in 2018. Great time to add debt, as long as its fixed rate.
Corn basing off 1/2 cent , 374 1/2. Wheat got a 2 1/4 cent bounce to 453. Beans rallied 5 3/4 to 1028 1/4. Rice off 8 to 1220 1/2 and finding bids from here. Final 3 receipts were delivered out of ottwell to close out a delayed settle march. Dow up 74 to 24,765 and bonds crest and roll over 22 tics to 143.27. Its bonds, no rally to much to sell in 2018. Great time to add debt, as long as its fixed rate.
3/19
Today made Friday look pretty. Corn again followed oats down the drain, 375 and minus 7 3/4. Wheat off 17 to 450 3/4 and KC even worse. Beans watch meal drop 14, while they close 27 lower, 1022 1/2. These trades cant come as a surprise to anyone, just in how long it took to happen. Rice off 17 1/2 for a 1228 1/2 close as the bear kept nudging and the buyers backed up in the face of the rest of the market. Dow was miserable and took a couple hundred point rally off the lows to still settle terrible, 24,691, down 274. We saw almost no flight to quality as the bonds gained 3 tics to 144.17. Bonds getting set for the next leg down. Should see a short lived bounce but I think the protein goose is cooked.
Today made Friday look pretty. Corn again followed oats down the drain, 375 and minus 7 3/4. Wheat off 17 to 450 3/4 and KC even worse. Beans watch meal drop 14, while they close 27 lower, 1022 1/2. These trades cant come as a surprise to anyone, just in how long it took to happen. Rice off 17 1/2 for a 1228 1/2 close as the bear kept nudging and the buyers backed up in the face of the rest of the market. Dow was miserable and took a couple hundred point rally off the lows to still settle terrible, 24,691, down 274. We saw almost no flight to quality as the bonds gained 3 tics to 144.17. Bonds getting set for the next leg down. Should see a short lived bounce but I think the protein goose is cooked.
3/16
Pretty ugly Friday in Wheat, off 11 more to 467 3/4. Corn followed a sickly acting oats lower and lost 4 more on the close to settle 382 3/4. Beans stood on their own, mostly without even meal to help, plus 8 3/4 to 1049 1/2. There was definitely room in the crush for Fridays trade, but not so much moving forward if the meal doesn't come back to the dance. Rice commercials didn't want to see anything north of 50 print and spent some more bullets in the process to still have a nickel higher settle, 1246. Dow up 41 to 24,965 and bonds slip 12 to 144.14.
Pretty ugly Friday in Wheat, off 11 more to 467 3/4. Corn followed a sickly acting oats lower and lost 4 more on the close to settle 382 3/4. Beans stood on their own, mostly without even meal to help, plus 8 3/4 to 1049 1/2. There was definitely room in the crush for Fridays trade, but not so much moving forward if the meal doesn't come back to the dance. Rice commercials didn't want to see anything north of 50 print and spent some more bullets in the process to still have a nickel higher settle, 1246. Dow up 41 to 24,965 and bonds slip 12 to 144.14.
3/14
Wheat up 2 1/4 trying to recap Tuesdays loss, 488 3/4. Lots of dry conditions in the wheat belt as well. Beans couldn't find a bull sponsor and broke 16 1/2 to 1032 1/4. corn tried to hold, but faltered late as well to 388 3/4, minus 3 cents. Rice up 7 to 1234 as the rice bear seemed to find himself being trapped. Thursday will be a tell all day I believe. Dow off 262 to 24,788 as the sky is falling again. Bonds up 24 tics to 144.28. Private updates to follow export sales.
Wheat up 2 1/4 trying to recap Tuesdays loss, 488 3/4. Lots of dry conditions in the wheat belt as well. Beans couldn't find a bull sponsor and broke 16 1/2 to 1032 1/4. corn tried to hold, but faltered late as well to 388 3/4, minus 3 cents. Rice up 7 to 1234 as the rice bear seemed to find himself being trapped. Thursday will be a tell all day I believe. Dow off 262 to 24,788 as the sky is falling again. Bonds up 24 tics to 144.28. Private updates to follow export sales.
3/13
Beans put on the best show of the day, 1048 3/4, gaining 7 3/4. Corn struggled to stay positive by a penny, 391 3/4. Wheat lost more ground to 486 1/2, down 4 1/4. Rice in another low volume, lackluster day, and my clients all know why, 3 1/2 lower, 1227. Dow started with some gusto, but the canning of Tillerson is making the investing population nervous. People want to like President Trump and believe he will surround himself with the best, and frankly, most liked what Mr. Tillerson brought to the international table. Off 188 to close 25,050. Bonds still trying to lay a base and getting some European help in my book, 13 tics to the good, 144.04. Have to tell you, looking at trusting a bond base this year is like trusting Lucy to keep the football down.
Beans put on the best show of the day, 1048 3/4, gaining 7 3/4. Corn struggled to stay positive by a penny, 391 3/4. Wheat lost more ground to 486 1/2, down 4 1/4. Rice in another low volume, lackluster day, and my clients all know why, 3 1/2 lower, 1227. Dow started with some gusto, but the canning of Tillerson is making the investing population nervous. People want to like President Trump and believe he will surround himself with the best, and frankly, most liked what Mr. Tillerson brought to the international table. Off 188 to close 25,050. Bonds still trying to lay a base and getting some European help in my book, 13 tics to the good, 144.04. Have to tell you, looking at trusting a bond base this year is like trusting Lucy to keep the football down.
3/12
Weak early pressure was brushed off by the close as more weather stories circulate about SA, and the speculative open interest continues to grow. Corn closes 1/4 higher at 390 3/4. Wheat posted a solid rally out of the red to 490 3/4, plus 1 1/2. Same story for the beans, 1 3/4 higher 1041. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1230 1/2 on a pretty quiet day. Dow started strong but faded to 25,238, down 122 while the bonds are trying to put in a base for now, 143.23, up 19.
Weak early pressure was brushed off by the close as more weather stories circulate about SA, and the speculative open interest continues to grow. Corn closes 1/4 higher at 390 3/4. Wheat posted a solid rally out of the red to 490 3/4, plus 1 1/2. Same story for the beans, 1 3/4 higher 1041. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1230 1/2 on a pretty quiet day. Dow started strong but faded to 25,238, down 122 while the bonds are trying to put in a base for now, 143.23, up 19.
3/09
Calmer heads did show up for Fridays trade, and beans and corn were weak. Wheat dropped a dime to 489 1/4. Beans down 24 3/4 with meal down $10 bucks. The problem with a meal led rally is that when meal got up, it drags beans kicking and screaming most days. When meal drops, beans have no net. Doesn't mean this rally is over, but at least recognize it for what it is. BTW, I would not be at all surprised that it is over. The real strongest lag of the three, corn, off 3 to 390 1/2. Market still needs to make sure the farmer makes at least reasonable planting decisions where possible. Rice down a dime as the commercials try to keep a lid and a scare into the farmer still holding cash before he goes to the field. The smart ones will ignore the noise and head to the field with inventory in the bin. Switching to June now for dow and bonds, dow up 439 to end the week at 25,360, while the bonds give up Thursday gains to settle 143.04, down 14. Without a black swan blotting out the sun, this bond story will be repeated all year long. I'm already tired of typing it. Inflation and weather are the backdrops the bulls need to keep the bean complex up, with excess domestic supplies, while there are less fools to be brought into the fold. The rice needs to ignore inflation and weather, with no real supplies and no real longs, if the commercials are to keep it down. Quite a paradox that will be played out in the next few months. If rice had a meal trigger we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Calmer heads did show up for Fridays trade, and beans and corn were weak. Wheat dropped a dime to 489 1/4. Beans down 24 3/4 with meal down $10 bucks. The problem with a meal led rally is that when meal got up, it drags beans kicking and screaming most days. When meal drops, beans have no net. Doesn't mean this rally is over, but at least recognize it for what it is. BTW, I would not be at all surprised that it is over. The real strongest lag of the three, corn, off 3 to 390 1/2. Market still needs to make sure the farmer makes at least reasonable planting decisions where possible. Rice down a dime as the commercials try to keep a lid and a scare into the farmer still holding cash before he goes to the field. The smart ones will ignore the noise and head to the field with inventory in the bin. Switching to June now for dow and bonds, dow up 439 to end the week at 25,360, while the bonds give up Thursday gains to settle 143.04, down 14. Without a black swan blotting out the sun, this bond story will be repeated all year long. I'm already tired of typing it. Inflation and weather are the backdrops the bulls need to keep the bean complex up, with excess domestic supplies, while there are less fools to be brought into the fold. The rice needs to ignore inflation and weather, with no real supplies and no real longs, if the commercials are to keep it down. Quite a paradox that will be played out in the next few months. If rice had a meal trigger we wouldn't be having this conversation.
3/08
Lots of info to digest today. Exports were great across the board. Corn CO dropped into my expected range, which is friendly, and the market responded up 6 1/4 to 393 1/2. Wheat stocks are getting a little larger, but the market shook that news off after the 11 o'clock break to end 2 higher, 499 1/4. Beans also got a domestic bearish CO number, but solid export sales and decreased SA production allowed for a post report rally back to 1064, off 1 1/4. Rice had strong export sales and especially shipments as well as a no change report, but lost 5 1/2 to 1243. Computer tried to blow out the bottom of the market on open, but got rebuked quickly. Will be interesting to see if they try again tomorrow. Dow yo-yo trade ending 97 higher, 24,892. June bonds gain 14 tics to 143.17. I think as calmer heads review bean and wheat carry over in the domestic market, it will be hard for this price to stick, barring something severe in SA.
Lots of info to digest today. Exports were great across the board. Corn CO dropped into my expected range, which is friendly, and the market responded up 6 1/4 to 393 1/2. Wheat stocks are getting a little larger, but the market shook that news off after the 11 o'clock break to end 2 higher, 499 1/4. Beans also got a domestic bearish CO number, but solid export sales and decreased SA production allowed for a post report rally back to 1064, off 1 1/4. Rice had strong export sales and especially shipments as well as a no change report, but lost 5 1/2 to 1243. Computer tried to blow out the bottom of the market on open, but got rebuked quickly. Will be interesting to see if they try again tomorrow. Dow yo-yo trade ending 97 higher, 24,892. June bonds gain 14 tics to 143.17. I think as calmer heads review bean and wheat carry over in the domestic market, it will be hard for this price to stick, barring something severe in SA.
3/07
Position squaring trade before the report, and that sometimes shows where the market is over extended. Corn off a penny, 387 1/4. Wheat falls nearly a dime to 497 1/4. Meal weakens, and beans lose 9 1/2 to 1065 1/4. That still $10.65, and that's a healthy price for beans as I sit here today. Tight range in rice and 1/2 cent higher, 1248 1/2. Dow recovers from the latest white house departure to only 57 lower at the end of the day, 24,795. Bonds lose 9 tics to 144.04. Will be switching to June in the bonds.
Position squaring trade before the report, and that sometimes shows where the market is over extended. Corn off a penny, 387 1/4. Wheat falls nearly a dime to 497 1/4. Meal weakens, and beans lose 9 1/2 to 1065 1/4. That still $10.65, and that's a healthy price for beans as I sit here today. Tight range in rice and 1/2 cent higher, 1248 1/2. Dow recovers from the latest white house departure to only 57 lower at the end of the day, 24,795. Bonds lose 9 tics to 144.04. Will be switching to June in the bonds.
3/06
Corn up another penny, 388 1/4 on a solid close. Wheat rallied to 2 1/4 lower, 507 but struggled earlier in the day. Beans off 2 3/4 to 1074 3/4 as the meal just isn't being cooperative, and commitments say things are heavy. Rice hit a ton of farmer selling above 1250, settling up a penny at 1248. Big spec short doesn't have as much above to work against after today. Dow of 12 tics to 24,852 and bonds up 9 to 144.13. Cohen resignation at the white house has everyone skittish tonight.
Corn up another penny, 388 1/4 on a solid close. Wheat rallied to 2 1/4 lower, 507 but struggled earlier in the day. Beans off 2 3/4 to 1074 3/4 as the meal just isn't being cooperative, and commitments say things are heavy. Rice hit a ton of farmer selling above 1250, settling up a penny at 1248. Big spec short doesn't have as much above to work against after today. Dow of 12 tics to 24,852 and bonds up 9 to 144.13. Cohen resignation at the white house has everyone skittish tonight.
3/05
Corn continues the new week up 2 to 387 1/4 with solid demand picture both domestic and abroad as the SA crop ratings continue to decline. Wheat bounces back to 509 1/4, plus 9 1/4. Beans stage an 11 cent rally from the lows to 1077 1/2, gaining 6 1/2 on the day and saving meal from its ugly break back to unchanged. Rice up 1/2 cent on a totally boring day, 1247. For over an hour you would have thought the market was closed. 55 new receipts tonight as the naked shorts are forced to relinquish physical because they got too greedy on this roll, and 550 vs cash is just one more sign that the commercials are leaving the large spec short to fend for himself, but guessing he is in another time zone and his quant doesn't speak with a southern draw. Dow runs 550 off its early low into thin air, 24 864 and a 329 point higher end to the day. bonds settle 144.04, minus 10 because, well, they are bonds in 2018.
Corn continues the new week up 2 to 387 1/4 with solid demand picture both domestic and abroad as the SA crop ratings continue to decline. Wheat bounces back to 509 1/4, plus 9 1/4. Beans stage an 11 cent rally from the lows to 1077 1/2, gaining 6 1/2 on the day and saving meal from its ugly break back to unchanged. Rice up 1/2 cent on a totally boring day, 1247. For over an hour you would have thought the market was closed. 55 new receipts tonight as the naked shorts are forced to relinquish physical because they got too greedy on this roll, and 550 vs cash is just one more sign that the commercials are leaving the large spec short to fend for himself, but guessing he is in another time zone and his quant doesn't speak with a southern draw. Dow runs 550 off its early low into thin air, 24 864 and a 329 point higher end to the day. bonds settle 144.04, minus 10 because, well, they are bonds in 2018.
3/02
Corn traded a chop and closed friday off a penny, 385 1/4. Wheat took a hard dive down 15 1/2 to $5 even, but still a solid week. Even with meal trying to roll over , beans managed a three cent rally to 1071. Rice lost 3 1/2 cents to 1246 1/2 as the spread shorts paid up early, then the march got a small seller. Like 1 lot small. Still 100 march to be found, and down to 8500 total open. Dow closed off 85 to 24,535, but that was after more than 300 points of rally from a shaky low. Bonds gave up all of Thursdays trade, 144.14 and 29 tics lower.
Corn traded a chop and closed friday off a penny, 385 1/4. Wheat took a hard dive down 15 1/2 to $5 even, but still a solid week. Even with meal trying to roll over , beans managed a three cent rally to 1071. Rice lost 3 1/2 cents to 1246 1/2 as the spread shorts paid up early, then the march got a small seller. Like 1 lot small. Still 100 march to be found, and down to 8500 total open. Dow closed off 85 to 24,535, but that was after more than 300 points of rally from a shaky low. Bonds gave up all of Thursdays trade, 144.14 and 29 tics lower.
3/01
Wheat again blowing out the top and setting the tone for everything else, gaining 20 1/2 to 515 1/2. Spec short isn't making money on the roll this time. Corn gains 4 1/4 to 386 1/4 in tow. Beans charged up late to 1068, plus 12 1/2. Fund money is doing the US farmer more good than any other entity, but you have to be willing to take it. Rice catching a breath with what looks like some farmer selling at the highs and a 4 lower close, 1250. Still about 180 shorts stuck for now in March. Dow tumbles on tariff talk, although you would never know it in the grains, 418 lower to 24,620. Bonds find another 29 tics to 145.11. Can see another 2 points at the most in this run, but I don't think it will give you much time to consider that value, if at all.
Wheat again blowing out the top and setting the tone for everything else, gaining 20 1/2 to 515 1/2. Spec short isn't making money on the roll this time. Corn gains 4 1/4 to 386 1/4 in tow. Beans charged up late to 1068, plus 12 1/2. Fund money is doing the US farmer more good than any other entity, but you have to be willing to take it. Rice catching a breath with what looks like some farmer selling at the highs and a 4 lower close, 1250. Still about 180 shorts stuck for now in March. Dow tumbles on tariff talk, although you would never know it in the grains, 418 lower to 24,620. Bonds find another 29 tics to 145.11. Can see another 2 points at the most in this run, but I don't think it will give you much time to consider that value, if at all.
2/28
Another solid day in the corn, but acted a little tired on its highs and backed off to the middle of the range up 2 3/4 to 382. Wheat lit the fuse and the short funds were shown the door, 495 and gaining 18. Meal continuing its run and dragging beans along to 6 higher, 1055 1/2. These grains have a bit of a SA weather story, but hopefully you can step back a little and see this is a big fund money flow trade. Please don't forget when momentum changes, they can and will overshoot the downside in both price and time as well. I get if we had a shortage and supply driven market that it can have legs, but $400 meal and $20-40 under cash at delivery areas doesn't denote a shortage. Rice deliveries start, the real crop with a shortage is exposed, and we pop 38 cents to 1254. In meal terms we should be over $15, but rice contract specs don't have meal contract terms, and none of the players want that but the farmer anyway. Dow off 391 to 25,038 as the money grinder heads south for its high speed churn, while bonds gain an amazing 28 tics to 144.14. Really just looking for a new and higher point to sell into again.
Another solid day in the corn, but acted a little tired on its highs and backed off to the middle of the range up 2 3/4 to 382. Wheat lit the fuse and the short funds were shown the door, 495 and gaining 18. Meal continuing its run and dragging beans along to 6 higher, 1055 1/2. These grains have a bit of a SA weather story, but hopefully you can step back a little and see this is a big fund money flow trade. Please don't forget when momentum changes, they can and will overshoot the downside in both price and time as well. I get if we had a shortage and supply driven market that it can have legs, but $400 meal and $20-40 under cash at delivery areas doesn't denote a shortage. Rice deliveries start, the real crop with a shortage is exposed, and we pop 38 cents to 1254. In meal terms we should be over $15, but rice contract specs don't have meal contract terms, and none of the players want that but the farmer anyway. Dow off 391 to 25,038 as the money grinder heads south for its high speed churn, while bonds gain an amazing 28 tics to 144.14. Really just looking for a new and higher point to sell into again.
2/27
With march deliveries starting, we will switch to may futures for the grains. Corn continues its grind higher, gaining 2 cents to 379 1/4. Wheat pops on poor conditions to 477, plus 4 1/4. Meal blowing out the top side $9 more and wanting to print $400, so beans dragged up 3 1/2 to 1049 1/2. A guy could make his year at these crush rates, except you cant really capture thin air. Just one more crack in the armor of accountability and convergence. Maybe variable rate storage will fix a shipping cert on stuff that isn't necessarily even made yet.. Take that for the humor that it is meant to be, but I wouldn't be surprised for another store bought academic to support the idea. Rice looks to have a delivery problem of its own, like maybe not enough receipts to cover the lazy short. 1216 and 6 1/2 higher close. Dow off 329 to 25,429 as we are seeing the computers make money on churn this year instead of buy and hold. Bonds off 21 tics to 143.18, and you don't need a reason for a bond break this year. Last year, dow up, up, up. This year bonds go down, down, down.
With march deliveries starting, we will switch to may futures for the grains. Corn continues its grind higher, gaining 2 cents to 379 1/4. Wheat pops on poor conditions to 477, plus 4 1/4. Meal blowing out the top side $9 more and wanting to print $400, so beans dragged up 3 1/2 to 1049 1/2. A guy could make his year at these crush rates, except you cant really capture thin air. Just one more crack in the armor of accountability and convergence. Maybe variable rate storage will fix a shipping cert on stuff that isn't necessarily even made yet.. Take that for the humor that it is meant to be, but I wouldn't be surprised for another store bought academic to support the idea. Rice looks to have a delivery problem of its own, like maybe not enough receipts to cover the lazy short. 1216 and 6 1/2 higher close. Dow off 329 to 25,429 as we are seeing the computers make money on churn this year instead of buy and hold. Bonds off 21 tics to 143.18, and you don't need a reason for a bond break this year. Last year, dow up, up, up. This year bonds go down, down, down.
2/26
Corn pops 2 1/4 to 368 1/2 on decent exports and domestic demand. Wheat up 7 1/4 on a solid day of gains, 459 1/2. Beans slip 2 to 1034 1/4 after early gains in beans and meal slip away. Rice drops 7 1/2 to 1189 in front of first notice day, but spread volume was quite large and strong, vs the usual fade. Dow back in melt up mode, plus another 444 to 25,758. Bonds find 5 whole tics to 144.07.
Corn pops 2 1/4 to 368 1/2 on decent exports and domestic demand. Wheat up 7 1/4 on a solid day of gains, 459 1/2. Beans slip 2 to 1034 1/4 after early gains in beans and meal slip away. Rice drops 7 1/2 to 1189 in front of first notice day, but spread volume was quite large and strong, vs the usual fade. Dow back in melt up mode, plus another 444 to 25,758. Bonds find 5 whole tics to 144.07.
2/23
Exports held nothing shocking Friday for wheat or corn so a relatively dull day. Corn off 1/2 cent, 366 1/4. What closed 452 1/4 gaining a penny. Beans gained 4 1/4 to 1036 1/4, but had to do it without the help of meal. Commitments of traders is trumping any bull story you could print by now, with what I expect to be s rough week coming for the meal boys. Rice settled 1196 1/2 and keeping the $12 calls out of the money. 3200 march open interest that needs to be settled by Tuesdays close means we better be on our toes in the south to start the week. . Dow pops 301 to end the week at 25,314 and the bonds gain 30 to 144.02.
Exports held nothing shocking Friday for wheat or corn so a relatively dull day. Corn off 1/2 cent, 366 1/4. What closed 452 1/4 gaining a penny. Beans gained 4 1/4 to 1036 1/4, but had to do it without the help of meal. Commitments of traders is trumping any bull story you could print by now, with what I expect to be s rough week coming for the meal boys. Rice settled 1196 1/2 and keeping the $12 calls out of the money. 3200 march open interest that needs to be settled by Tuesdays close means we better be on our toes in the south to start the week. . Dow pops 301 to end the week at 25,314 and the bonds gain 30 to 144.02.
2/22
Corn up a penny in quiet trade to 366 3/4 with world circumstances looking more friendly. Wheat up 4 to 451 1/4. Meal couldn't get anything going, so beans slip 2 1/4, settling 1032. Rice hitting the calls on the upside at 1202, plus 6 and tomorrow is expiration for the grains. Dow fully recovers to 25,013 for a gain of 231. Bonds actually found 14 tics, 143.04.
Corn up a penny in quiet trade to 366 3/4 with world circumstances looking more friendly. Wheat up 4 to 451 1/4. Meal couldn't get anything going, so beans slip 2 1/4, settling 1032. Rice hitting the calls on the upside at 1202, plus 6 and tomorrow is expiration for the grains. Dow fully recovers to 25,013 for a gain of 231. Bonds actually found 14 tics, 143.04.
2/21
Wheat off 2 on settling up of positions, 447 1/4. Corn up 1/4 to 365 3/4, but I would note oats were off 8. Beans stronger than meal, 1034 1/4, plus 7 3/4. Rice bear couldn't hold it down, although I don't think he has given up, 1196 gaining 10 1/2. Dow flops after some mushy fed comments losing 166 to 24,782. Bonds are on the broken record trade down a point and 6 tics to 142.22. One caveat short term is now everyone is starting to talk about higher rates.
Wheat off 2 on settling up of positions, 447 1/4. Corn up 1/4 to 365 3/4, but I would note oats were off 8. Beans stronger than meal, 1034 1/4, plus 7 3/4. Rice bear couldn't hold it down, although I don't think he has given up, 1196 gaining 10 1/2. Dow flops after some mushy fed comments losing 166 to 24,782. Bonds are on the broken record trade down a point and 6 tics to 142.22. One caveat short term is now everyone is starting to talk about higher rates.
2/20
Weather in SA gave the bean complex room to run early, but faded late. Beans up a nickel, but near the lows of the day, 1026 1/2, while meal settled 9 bucks off the highs. Bulls better show up to defend tomorrow. Corn lost 2 cents to 365 1/2 and seemed to hit resistance as well. Wheat rolled over, down 8 1/2 to 449 1/4. Rice bear attacked again and sold a pretty big slug at the lows, 1185 1/2 and down 16. Dow broke on Walmart slight miss vs expectations, 288 lower to 24,948. It should give pause that a company the size of Walmart can lose 10% of value in a day on nothing severe. Bonds off 11 tics to 143.28. You know my stance on bonds.
Weather in SA gave the bean complex room to run early, but faded late. Beans up a nickel, but near the lows of the day, 1026 1/2, while meal settled 9 bucks off the highs. Bulls better show up to defend tomorrow. Corn lost 2 cents to 365 1/2 and seemed to hit resistance as well. Wheat rolled over, down 8 1/2 to 449 1/4. Rice bear attacked again and sold a pretty big slug at the lows, 1185 1/2 and down 16. Dow broke on Walmart slight miss vs expectations, 288 lower to 24,948. It should give pause that a company the size of Walmart can lose 10% of value in a day on nothing severe. Bonds off 11 tics to 143.28. You know my stance on bonds.
2/16
Not much to me in Fridays corn trade, off 1/4 to 367 1/2. Wheat just couldn't get it going and settles down 4 and a penny of the low, 457 3/4. Beans bounced a dime off the low and only 2 3/4 lower at 1021 1/2 at the close led up by, wait for it, meal strength. 24K increase in open interest on the day. Meal now has 485k open interest, nearly 100k higher than last year, with a projected 100K large spec long. Last year we were $35 lower in meal with a better potential story in these eyes. You want to be in charge of nearly 1/4 of the open interest in a small market when the computers say its time to find the door? Easy to run a small market up when the contract likes up more than down, but getting out is another story. Rice trade had all the markings of a bear trap on Friday, and closed 6 1/2 better at 1201 1/2. Those $12 calls just became a free spin of the wheel. Dow had a 300 point range and closed 25,236, plus 2. Bonds were the better part of a point higher, but faded to plus 7 at the close, 144.07, proving yet again that it takes nearly nothing to keep the bonds down, and that is the big, long picture design. Monday will be closed with night session in effect, and exports will be out on Friday this coming week. Happy weekend.
Not much to me in Fridays corn trade, off 1/4 to 367 1/2. Wheat just couldn't get it going and settles down 4 and a penny of the low, 457 3/4. Beans bounced a dime off the low and only 2 3/4 lower at 1021 1/2 at the close led up by, wait for it, meal strength. 24K increase in open interest on the day. Meal now has 485k open interest, nearly 100k higher than last year, with a projected 100K large spec long. Last year we were $35 lower in meal with a better potential story in these eyes. You want to be in charge of nearly 1/4 of the open interest in a small market when the computers say its time to find the door? Easy to run a small market up when the contract likes up more than down, but getting out is another story. Rice trade had all the markings of a bear trap on Friday, and closed 6 1/2 better at 1201 1/2. Those $12 calls just became a free spin of the wheel. Dow had a 300 point range and closed 25,236, plus 2. Bonds were the better part of a point higher, but faded to plus 7 at the close, 144.07, proving yet again that it takes nearly nothing to keep the bonds down, and that is the big, long picture design. Monday will be closed with night session in effect, and exports will be out on Friday this coming week. Happy weekend.
2/15
Great corn export numbers as expected, and we expect them to continue to be solid moving forward. Argy weather story still front line, and yet corn only musters 1/2 cent higher close, 367 3/4. Wheat gains back all the previous days set back, 6 higher, 461 3/4. Beans, yet again dragged higher by meal, gains 7 cents to 1024 1/4. Computer rice bear showed up like clockwork to hit rice for a 30 lower day, 1195. This puts the $12 calls back in play, as well as the 1180 puts, so movements down from here of significance will have 500 options to deal with by next Friday. Dow back in melt up stage gaining 371 to 25,234 and bonds muster 20 tics to the good, proving that even a dead cat will bounce.
Great corn export numbers as expected, and we expect them to continue to be solid moving forward. Argy weather story still front line, and yet corn only musters 1/2 cent higher close, 367 3/4. Wheat gains back all the previous days set back, 6 higher, 461 3/4. Beans, yet again dragged higher by meal, gains 7 cents to 1024 1/4. Computer rice bear showed up like clockwork to hit rice for a 30 lower day, 1195. This puts the $12 calls back in play, as well as the 1180 puts, so movements down from here of significance will have 500 options to deal with by next Friday. Dow back in melt up stage gaining 371 to 25,234 and bonds muster 20 tics to the good, proving that even a dead cat will bounce.
2/14
Lets try this again. Meal, being run up by trend following quant systems and overwhelming the market under the guise that all of Argentina wont grow a crop or export meal, leads beans 5 1/2 higher to 1017 1/4. And just like the dow, it will run too high until people start to believe in the fairy tale, and there will be a fleecing. Just looking for the mark at the table. Corn, which could actually be damaged significantly in Argentina and a crop in which by all accounts we are globally competitive, gained a whopping 1/2 cent to 367 1/4. Think about the big picture. $370 protein or give away DDGs. Wheat looses another nickel to 455 3/4. Rice off 3 1/2 as the computer bear is still working his magic, and should be expected again tomorrow, the middle of the month. Dow in another 600 point range but closing 237 higher, 24,863. Bonds, never long for finding a reason to break this year, as we have been constantly reminding, off a point and 6 tics to 143.12.. Don't catch the knife.
Lets try this again. Meal, being run up by trend following quant systems and overwhelming the market under the guise that all of Argentina wont grow a crop or export meal, leads beans 5 1/2 higher to 1017 1/4. And just like the dow, it will run too high until people start to believe in the fairy tale, and there will be a fleecing. Just looking for the mark at the table. Corn, which could actually be damaged significantly in Argentina and a crop in which by all accounts we are globally competitive, gained a whopping 1/2 cent to 367 1/4. Think about the big picture. $370 protein or give away DDGs. Wheat looses another nickel to 455 3/4. Rice off 3 1/2 as the computer bear is still working his magic, and should be expected again tomorrow, the middle of the month. Dow in another 600 point range but closing 237 higher, 24,863. Bonds, never long for finding a reason to break this year, as we have been constantly reminding, off a point and 6 tics to 143.12.. Don't catch the knife.
2/13
Meal again came out of the box on fire, dragging beans along, but fading later, and probably pricing us out of exports longer term. Beans up a dime to 1011 3/4. Corn slips 1/4 to 366 3/4, and wheat acted like it rolled over, off 3 1/4 to 460 3/4. Rice bear showed late to put us down 10 1/2 to 1228 1/2. Dow stabilizing with a 300 point range and 43 higher, 24, 626 and bonds up 5 tics to 144.18. Think the grain market wants to catch its breath at the least and may be tired at the worst. Corn has a decent domestic and global story, but we have soared past what I see as marketable value in protein.
Meal again came out of the box on fire, dragging beans along, but fading later, and probably pricing us out of exports longer term. Beans up a dime to 1011 3/4. Corn slips 1/4 to 366 3/4, and wheat acted like it rolled over, off 3 1/4 to 460 3/4. Rice bear showed late to put us down 10 1/2 to 1228 1/2. Dow stabilizing with a 300 point range and 43 higher, 24, 626 and bonds up 5 tics to 144.18. Think the grain market wants to catch its breath at the least and may be tired at the worst. Corn has a decent domestic and global story, but we have soared past what I see as marketable value in protein.
2/12
Rains missed for the most part in Argentina, and equities were strong, so Monday was a risk on day. Wheat started the upward pull, 15 higher to 464. Oats came along , and so did corn for a nickel, 367. Meal, as usual led the charge and beans followed, 18 3/4 higher to 1001 3/4. Rice bear system met resistance much earlier than he expected, and marched up 6 1/2 to 1239 to end the day positive in the face of his sell program. Dow strong all day and 416 higher at the close, 24,583. Bonds found 8 tics to144.13.
Rains missed for the most part in Argentina, and equities were strong, so Monday was a risk on day. Wheat started the upward pull, 15 higher to 464. Oats came along , and so did corn for a nickel, 367. Meal, as usual led the charge and beans followed, 18 3/4 higher to 1001 3/4. Rice bear system met resistance much earlier than he expected, and marched up 6 1/2 to 1239 to end the day positive in the face of his sell program. Dow strong all day and 416 higher at the close, 24,583. Bonds found 8 tics to144.13.
2/09
Fridays equities market put the world on its heals, with the dow testing lows again, but rallying late 840 points to settle 197 higher on the day, 24,167. Bonds pick up a stray 2 tics to 144.05. I don't see how the fed doesn't soften its interest rate tone to quiet the markets, but I wouldn't pick the bond bottom, just look for a new level to sell it. Bonds could rally 10 full points and still be junk. Corn slips to 362, minus 3 3/4 but really a back and fill trade. Wheat wanted to test Thursdays push lower and did, minus 7 1/4 to 449, still above Tuesdays trade. Beans gave back Thursdays 4 3/4 cents to 983, and that with meals strong upward pull. Id ask everyone to re-evaluate their long positions left in beans as the week progresses. SA production and weak currencies are not our friends. Rice gives up 12 to 1232 1/2 as the computer short with the bear hare trigger is back. Think he will run into commercial buying sooner than he would like, but if I can spot him, so can the quants.
Fridays equities market put the world on its heals, with the dow testing lows again, but rallying late 840 points to settle 197 higher on the day, 24,167. Bonds pick up a stray 2 tics to 144.05. I don't see how the fed doesn't soften its interest rate tone to quiet the markets, but I wouldn't pick the bond bottom, just look for a new level to sell it. Bonds could rally 10 full points and still be junk. Corn slips to 362, minus 3 3/4 but really a back and fill trade. Wheat wanted to test Thursdays push lower and did, minus 7 1/4 to 449, still above Tuesdays trade. Beans gave back Thursdays 4 3/4 cents to 983, and that with meals strong upward pull. Id ask everyone to re-evaluate their long positions left in beans as the week progresses. SA production and weak currencies are not our friends. Rice gives up 12 to 1232 1/2 as the computer short with the bear hare trigger is back. Think he will run into commercial buying sooner than he would like, but if I can spot him, so can the quants.
2/08
Thursday started with acceptable exports in rice and wheat, and solid bean and corn numbers. WASDE left rice unchanged, a soft wheat number,530 carry over for beans, increased corn usage with more room to come. Global stocks are still sufficiently large but act like we have reached as high as we will go for a while and rolling over. Corn settled 1/2 higher, 365 3/4. Wheat stumbles but recovered to 456 1/4, off 4 1/4, and beans rally 4 3/4 to 987 3/4. Meal yet again sets the tone and beans yet again follow the lead. Rice bear is active again and we lost 5 1/2 to 1244 1/2. Dow futures lose 765 to 23,970 as the unwind continues while bonds give up 17 more tics to 144.03. Declining open interest in all the grains as people are moving to the sidelines to avoid spillover from this latest financial pause.
Thursday started with acceptable exports in rice and wheat, and solid bean and corn numbers. WASDE left rice unchanged, a soft wheat number,530 carry over for beans, increased corn usage with more room to come. Global stocks are still sufficiently large but act like we have reached as high as we will go for a while and rolling over. Corn settled 1/2 higher, 365 3/4. Wheat stumbles but recovered to 456 1/4, off 4 1/4, and beans rally 4 3/4 to 987 3/4. Meal yet again sets the tone and beans yet again follow the lead. Rice bear is active again and we lost 5 1/2 to 1244 1/2. Dow futures lose 765 to 23,970 as the unwind continues while bonds give up 17 more tics to 144.03. Declining open interest in all the grains as people are moving to the sidelines to avoid spillover from this latest financial pause.
2/07
Shorts unwinding in front of the report drove wheat up 14 1/4 to 460 1/2. Same story in corn with a smaller gain, 365 1/4, plus 1 3/4. Beans started firm but some moisture talk in SA, as well as china trade concerns and a fear of a plus 5oo carry over all helped beans to 983, off 3 1/4. Rice slipped a nickel to 1250 as the short acted like he has al least gotten rid of the worst of a bad position. Dow has a 700 pt day and ended off 65 to 24,735, while bonds slid a point and 13 tics to 144.20. This is just not the time to try to catch that knife. Export sales in the morning and then the WASDE report should provide for some fireworks tomorrow.
Shorts unwinding in front of the report drove wheat up 14 1/4 to 460 1/2. Same story in corn with a smaller gain, 365 1/4, plus 1 3/4. Beans started firm but some moisture talk in SA, as well as china trade concerns and a fear of a plus 5oo carry over all helped beans to 983, off 3 1/4. Rice slipped a nickel to 1250 as the short acted like he has al least gotten rid of the worst of a bad position. Dow has a 700 pt day and ended off 65 to 24,735, while bonds slid a point and 13 tics to 144.20. This is just not the time to try to catch that knife. Export sales in the morning and then the WASDE report should provide for some fireworks tomorrow.
2/06
Financials stabilized, and the grains found strength from SA weather, commercial demand, and inflation talks. Beans up 16 1/2 to 986 1/4 and again lead by meal. Make sure all year you check morning meal moves in your bean marketing decisions. Wheat up 6 to 446 1/4 to recover Monday. Corn hitting recent highs and demand is there for it for now, 4 3/4 higher, 363 1/2. Rice buyer wont let the shorts rest, up another couple to 1255. Dow up 862 to 24,800 recovering the oversold condition it created on yesterdays close. That trade was just a fleecing of the suckers. Expect more of it. Bonds up 11 tics to 146.11 as flight to quality is interrupted by inflation talk.
Financials stabilized, and the grains found strength from SA weather, commercial demand, and inflation talks. Beans up 16 1/2 to 986 1/4 and again lead by meal. Make sure all year you check morning meal moves in your bean marketing decisions. Wheat up 6 to 446 1/4 to recover Monday. Corn hitting recent highs and demand is there for it for now, 4 3/4 higher, 363 1/2. Rice buyer wont let the shorts rest, up another couple to 1255. Dow up 862 to 24,800 recovering the oversold condition it created on yesterdays close. That trade was just a fleecing of the suckers. Expect more of it. Bonds up 11 tics to 146.11 as flight to quality is interrupted by inflation talk.
2/05
More dow blood in the streets, down 1,490 to 23,938. Quick erase of the January euphoria. Bonds up 29 to 145.22, and in tonight's trade bonds are up almost 2 full points and the dow is off nearly 600. This melt down is much more violent than I had expected, but it will be done faster as well. Rice up 7 to 1253 as the short has to pay to get coverage. Beans off 9 to 969 3/4 and nearing the lower part of a 9.60- $10 range. This might give those playing the July $10 puts another chance to ring the register on some softness tomorrow. Real risk is that we get a +500 carry over on the 8th, so measure weather this is a trade or insurance for your particular position. Wheat and corn traded most of their size in the lower part of price, with wheat down 6 1/2 to 440 1/4 and corn off 2 3/4 to settle 358 3/4. Still think corn has a base and tight range around here so try to mine basis every day for trade opportunities.
More dow blood in the streets, down 1,490 to 23,938. Quick erase of the January euphoria. Bonds up 29 to 145.22, and in tonight's trade bonds are up almost 2 full points and the dow is off nearly 600. This melt down is much more violent than I had expected, but it will be done faster as well. Rice up 7 to 1253 as the short has to pay to get coverage. Beans off 9 to 969 3/4 and nearing the lower part of a 9.60- $10 range. This might give those playing the July $10 puts another chance to ring the register on some softness tomorrow. Real risk is that we get a +500 carry over on the 8th, so measure weather this is a trade or insurance for your particular position. Wheat and corn traded most of their size in the lower part of price, with wheat down 6 1/2 to 440 1/4 and corn off 2 3/4 to settle 358 3/4. Still think corn has a base and tight range around here so try to mine basis every day for trade opportunities.
2/2
Lets hit the elephant in the room first. When I said Thursday we would flush the weak longs in the dow, I surely didn't expect it to be that fast or violent. Now that the cat is out of the bag, we have the weekend for lots of coordination to take place in the financials to right the ship. Expect some kind of softening on the rising interest rate, declining dollar rhetoric, along with some "convenient" revisions and government numbers, all to lessen the herd mentality that has spilled into the bonds. Jan 2 bonds 152 handle and Feb. 2 bonds with a 144 handle isn't what the fed wanted, I don't think. The memo is only the public excuse. Dow off 744 to 25.428 and bonds off a point and 25 tics to 144.25. This is why I've been talking about locking long term rates so much, and in the big picture is still the tip of the iceberg. Rice hitting more resistance at 1246, plus 5 1/2. Corn standing strong with real demand to fight big supplies,361 1/2, minus 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 446 3/4 and beans down 6 1/4 to 978 3/4. A cheaper dollar helps grain exports, and I don't think that was in the equation for most global players. You can bet that is part of the conversation now.
Lets hit the elephant in the room first. When I said Thursday we would flush the weak longs in the dow, I surely didn't expect it to be that fast or violent. Now that the cat is out of the bag, we have the weekend for lots of coordination to take place in the financials to right the ship. Expect some kind of softening on the rising interest rate, declining dollar rhetoric, along with some "convenient" revisions and government numbers, all to lessen the herd mentality that has spilled into the bonds. Jan 2 bonds 152 handle and Feb. 2 bonds with a 144 handle isn't what the fed wanted, I don't think. The memo is only the public excuse. Dow off 744 to 25.428 and bonds off a point and 25 tics to 144.25. This is why I've been talking about locking long term rates so much, and in the big picture is still the tip of the iceberg. Rice hitting more resistance at 1246, plus 5 1/2. Corn standing strong with real demand to fight big supplies,361 1/2, minus 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 446 3/4 and beans down 6 1/4 to 978 3/4. A cheaper dollar helps grain exports, and I don't think that was in the equation for most global players. You can bet that is part of the conversation now.
2/1
Corn had solid exports but a relatively quiet day, up 1/4 to 361 3/4. Bean exports were weak and the market went hunting for a floor, found it and bounced, but still off 10 3/4 to 985. Wheat flushed all the weak longs and then came back to nearly unchanged,451 and down 3/4. Rice cash changing hands every day and futures grind around, 1240 1/2, down 3 1/2. Bonds flushed another point 08 lower to 146.18 as we reset the new low end of bonds, and it might well be a lot lower than the experts think before we are all done. Dow got pummeled early and recovered to 36 higher, 26,172. That market went from a steady march up to violent swings every day. Figure we flush the weak longs, make another run for a high, but then look at the top and realize we are standing alone and its a long ways down to the flat lands. Saw Ford Baldwin, a weed scientist from the U of A, speak about weed control and dicamba in particular. I'd google him and spend the time to listen to one of his free recorded presentations.
Corn had solid exports but a relatively quiet day, up 1/4 to 361 3/4. Bean exports were weak and the market went hunting for a floor, found it and bounced, but still off 10 3/4 to 985. Wheat flushed all the weak longs and then came back to nearly unchanged,451 and down 3/4. Rice cash changing hands every day and futures grind around, 1240 1/2, down 3 1/2. Bonds flushed another point 08 lower to 146.18 as we reset the new low end of bonds, and it might well be a lot lower than the experts think before we are all done. Dow got pummeled early and recovered to 36 higher, 26,172. That market went from a steady march up to violent swings every day. Figure we flush the weak longs, make another run for a high, but then look at the top and realize we are standing alone and its a long ways down to the flat lands. Saw Ford Baldwin, a weed scientist from the U of A, speak about weed control and dicamba in particular. I'd google him and spend the time to listen to one of his free recorded presentations.
1/31
Market took a break today, with corn 361 1/2, unchanged. Wheat gives back 5 1/2 to 451 3/4. Beans follow meal lower and settle 995 3/4, minus 4 1/2. Rice chewed more volume and settled up 3 to 1244. Dow back in rally mode, 26,136 and up 81, while bonds pick up 14 tics to 147.26. Exports in the morning and new fund money to be allotted for a new month.
Market took a break today, with corn 361 1/2, unchanged. Wheat gives back 5 1/2 to 451 3/4. Beans follow meal lower and settle 995 3/4, minus 4 1/2. Rice chewed more volume and settled up 3 to 1244. Dow back in rally mode, 26,136 and up 81, while bonds pick up 14 tics to 147.26. Exports in the morning and new fund money to be allotted for a new month.
1/30
Lots of moving pieces to the days trade. Mostly deleveraging positions, so if you had a short, buy for coverage. Long like stocks or bonds brought selling. Vol shorts had to pay up. And cash started to move, but well received. Beans and meal held up in the face of weaker crude, gaining 8 3/4 to 1000 1/4. Wheat pops 8 more to 457 1/4 and the KC wheat put on notice that poor crop conditions will be met with a strong bid. Might keep that in mind when planting of the other grains comes this spring. Corn up another 2 3/4 to 361 1/2. SA has some production problems, we are globally competitive, and there is still a big spec short. Clearly up against some prudent cash pricing though. Rice selling above the market held us to 1241, off 2 1/2. Still looking for an exciting export sales number Thursday. Dow takes a punch in the gut in front of the state of the union speech, 26,055, down 375. Bonds off 24 as well to 147.12. Normally you get a bond pop with that kind of dow weakness, so just one more alert that we will be looking at higher rates sooner rather than later.
Lots of moving pieces to the days trade. Mostly deleveraging positions, so if you had a short, buy for coverage. Long like stocks or bonds brought selling. Vol shorts had to pay up. And cash started to move, but well received. Beans and meal held up in the face of weaker crude, gaining 8 3/4 to 1000 1/4. Wheat pops 8 more to 457 1/4 and the KC wheat put on notice that poor crop conditions will be met with a strong bid. Might keep that in mind when planting of the other grains comes this spring. Corn up another 2 3/4 to 361 1/2. SA has some production problems, we are globally competitive, and there is still a big spec short. Clearly up against some prudent cash pricing though. Rice selling above the market held us to 1241, off 2 1/2. Still looking for an exciting export sales number Thursday. Dow takes a punch in the gut in front of the state of the union speech, 26,055, down 375. Bonds off 24 as well to 147.12. Normally you get a bond pop with that kind of dow weakness, so just one more alert that we will be looking at higher rates sooner rather than later.
1/29
SA weather topic of the day. Corn up 2 1/4 to 358 3/4 and getting some selling/hedging both in old crop and new. Wheat gains 8 1/4 to 449 1/4. Technical action getting bulled up. Beans also up 6 to 991 1/2. Rice plus a dime, 1243 1/2. Spec is still a big short. Dow rolled over and lost 174 points to 26,430 and bonds lost another 20 tics to 148.04. If you try to catch the bond knife, do it with options.
SA weather topic of the day. Corn up 2 1/4 to 358 3/4 and getting some selling/hedging both in old crop and new. Wheat gains 8 1/4 to 449 1/4. Technical action getting bulled up. Beans also up 6 to 991 1/2. Rice plus a dime, 1243 1/2. Spec is still a big short. Dow rolled over and lost 174 points to 26,430 and bonds lost another 20 tics to 148.04. If you try to catch the bond knife, do it with options.
1/26
Friday corn trade gets back Thursday, 1 1/4 plus to 356 1/2. Wheat continues the rally to 441, up another 6 1/2. Meal fades so beans do too, down 6 3/4 to 985 1/2. Rice has 100 more vs cash and 150 more march options and gains 19 1/2 to 1233 1/2. Several export potentials out there that could come to fruition this coming week in rice. Same old melt up story in the dow,228 higher, 26,604. Bonds drop 21 to 148.24 giving up most of Thursdays gains. again, bond trade this year is entirely different that last year, in that you sell rallies before you buy any break.
Friday corn trade gets back Thursday, 1 1/4 plus to 356 1/2. Wheat continues the rally to 441, up another 6 1/2. Meal fades so beans do too, down 6 3/4 to 985 1/2. Rice has 100 more vs cash and 150 more march options and gains 19 1/2 to 1233 1/2. Several export potentials out there that could come to fruition this coming week in rice. Same old melt up story in the dow,228 higher, 26,604. Bonds drop 21 to 148.24 giving up most of Thursdays gains. again, bond trade this year is entirely different that last year, in that you sell rallies before you buy any break.
1/25
Corn down 1 1/4 to 355 1/4. Wheat continues 1 1/2 higher to 434 1/2. Beans took a peak over $10 but settled back to 992 1/4, unchanged. Rice had about 250 options trade, and 1214 settle was2 1/2 lower. Wheat and corn have seasonal trade buying on their side and big spec shorts to chew up. Beans have weather stories in SA and a short spec, along with a weaker dollar, all assisting the price to a higher level than supply would lend one to believe. Rice has tight domestic supplies, a strengthening global market, and now volcano issues in the Philippines, a major global importer, all adding a floor. With all that, delayed export numbers really didn't have any great surprises. Today will tell us if the recent grain strength has legs, or was just another computer churn on the weak spec shorts. Dow continues its melt up, 106 higher at 26,376 and bonds up 30 to 149.13. Is it more basing action or part of a continued churn in a now downward trending debt market. I'd personally wait until Monday to gamble on that table.
Corn down 1 1/4 to 355 1/4. Wheat continues 1 1/2 higher to 434 1/2. Beans took a peak over $10 but settled back to 992 1/4, unchanged. Rice had about 250 options trade, and 1214 settle was2 1/2 lower. Wheat and corn have seasonal trade buying on their side and big spec shorts to chew up. Beans have weather stories in SA and a short spec, along with a weaker dollar, all assisting the price to a higher level than supply would lend one to believe. Rice has tight domestic supplies, a strengthening global market, and now volcano issues in the Philippines, a major global importer, all adding a floor. With all that, delayed export numbers really didn't have any great surprises. Today will tell us if the recent grain strength has legs, or was just another computer churn on the weak spec shorts. Dow continues its melt up, 106 higher at 26,376 and bonds up 30 to 149.13. Is it more basing action or part of a continued churn in a now downward trending debt market. I'd personally wait until Monday to gamble on that table.
1/24
Every story in the book for the grain rally, from currency, to drought, to flood, to trade expectations. Bottom line is shorts got over their skis and the computers are good at hunting out the weakest leg of the stool. Corn up 5 1/4 to 356 1/2. Told basis was stable , which shows the domestic buyer is inelastic at this price. Wheat pops 11 1/2 to 433. Beans gain another 6 with the help of meal, 992 1/4. Rice had an early seller again, but rallied to 1216 1/2, off 3 1/2. Another 140 vs cash on tonight's report, so would expect another hit to receipts. Dow had a 300 point range and settled 69 higher, 26,270. That allowed bonds to slip 24 tics to 148.15. I do think bonds are basing here, but todays trade is yet again proof that this year you don't want to try to catch that knife.
Every story in the book for the grain rally, from currency, to drought, to flood, to trade expectations. Bottom line is shorts got over their skis and the computers are good at hunting out the weakest leg of the stool. Corn up 5 1/4 to 356 1/2. Told basis was stable , which shows the domestic buyer is inelastic at this price. Wheat pops 11 1/2 to 433. Beans gain another 6 with the help of meal, 992 1/4. Rice had an early seller again, but rallied to 1216 1/2, off 3 1/2. Another 140 vs cash on tonight's report, so would expect another hit to receipts. Dow had a 300 point range and settled 69 higher, 26,270. That allowed bonds to slip 24 tics to 148.15. I do think bonds are basing here, but todays trade is yet again proof that this year you don't want to try to catch that knife.
1/23
Wheat was a dog today, off 4 1/4 to 421 1/2 and trying to drag the grains with it. Everything else recovered, corn closing off only 3/4 to 351 1/4, and beans gaining a couple cents to end the day 986 1/4. Rice up 2 to 1220 with more rice disappearing in the country. Dow flops around higher and lower, but settles up 6 to 26,201. Bonds trying to bounce, up 17 tics to 149.07.. Remember, bonds will probably have lower highs in each bounce. I'm still of the opinion that you need to lock up long term debt asap.
Wheat was a dog today, off 4 1/4 to 421 1/2 and trying to drag the grains with it. Everything else recovered, corn closing off only 3/4 to 351 1/4, and beans gaining a couple cents to end the day 986 1/4. Rice up 2 to 1220 with more rice disappearing in the country. Dow flops around higher and lower, but settles up 6 to 26,201. Bonds trying to bounce, up 17 tics to 149.07.. Remember, bonds will probably have lower highs in each bounce. I'm still of the opinion that you need to lock up long term debt asap.
Corn started firm but drifted to 1/2 cent lower, 352. Oats had surprising strength and bear watching. Wheat up 3 to 425 3/4. Beans up another 7 to 984 1/4, again on the back of the meal market. Our SA growing competitors are having a less than perfect season as it progresses and the world is still in need of protein. We are getting up into an area where some protection might be warranted. Rice bears had no extra bullets, so the market started low and crawled almost all the way back, 1218, down 2 1/2. Export business is being done with rice the domestic mills are going to wish they had. Dow melts up again, to the tune of 149 higher, 26,195 while bonds drift another 10 tics down, 148.22. Now that the trend has rolled over, I hate to pick bottoms, but it wouldn't surprise me to get a bounce now that the government is back at work.
1/19
Corn up a penny to end the week 352 1/2. Decent exports. Wheat gives back 2 1/2 on weaker than expected exports, 422 3/4. Beans sales and shipments solid and gain 4 1/4 on the day to 977 1/4. Meal up another 3 bucks and north of $330. Eight days out of 10, meal will matter, so get use to looking. Rice up 6 to 1220 1/2 as the country mills start to realize supply isn't there and the club is starting to break ranks. 722 vs cash, or possibly a block trade, but the biggest daily number I can ever recall. Noticeable quiet in the options Friday as well. Dow up 105 to 26,046 and bonds slip another 14 tics to 149. With the government shutdown showdown now on, it will be interesting to see how the press spins Monday morning. Republicans were an easy target in 13, but I don't see the logic for the dems this time. DACA was an Obama executive order that never got put to law when Obama had the whole show, so its kind of weak to try to blame that on the current administration. This is really politics for the next election cycle, but my problem is that now our farm bill is getting kicked down the road. If we had stopped running a deficit with the new tax bill, all this would be mute. We could be in for some unexpected noise next week.
Corn up a penny to end the week 352 1/2. Decent exports. Wheat gives back 2 1/2 on weaker than expected exports, 422 3/4. Beans sales and shipments solid and gain 4 1/4 on the day to 977 1/4. Meal up another 3 bucks and north of $330. Eight days out of 10, meal will matter, so get use to looking. Rice up 6 to 1220 1/2 as the country mills start to realize supply isn't there and the club is starting to break ranks. 722 vs cash, or possibly a block trade, but the biggest daily number I can ever recall. Noticeable quiet in the options Friday as well. Dow up 105 to 26,046 and bonds slip another 14 tics to 149. With the government shutdown showdown now on, it will be interesting to see how the press spins Monday morning. Republicans were an easy target in 13, but I don't see the logic for the dems this time. DACA was an Obama executive order that never got put to law when Obama had the whole show, so its kind of weak to try to blame that on the current administration. This is really politics for the next election cycle, but my problem is that now our farm bill is getting kicked down the road. If we had stopped running a deficit with the new tax bill, all this would be mute. We could be in for some unexpected noise next week.
1/18
Wheat continues the rally to 425 1/4, plus 3 3/4. Corn backs up 1 1/2 to 351 1/2. Beans gain 4 1/4 to 973, yet again on the back of meal. For you short term traders, I hope you are getting the signal by now. Rice off 1/2 to 1214 1/2 with some selling that seems to just not want the market any higher for now. Export sales tomorrow may change that in all the grains. Dow took a breather and dropped 157 to 25,941 and bonds surprisingly slipped 28 tics to 149.14. Don't want to read too much into one day, but the inflation trade radar is up just a little.
Wheat continues the rally to 425 1/4, plus 3 3/4. Corn backs up 1 1/2 to 351 1/2. Beans gain 4 1/4 to 973, yet again on the back of meal. For you short term traders, I hope you are getting the signal by now. Rice off 1/2 to 1214 1/2 with some selling that seems to just not want the market any higher for now. Export sales tomorrow may change that in all the grains. Dow took a breather and dropped 157 to 25,941 and bonds surprisingly slipped 28 tics to 149.14. Don't want to read too much into one day, but the inflation trade radar is up just a little.
1/17
Spec short in corn twitched, and corn rallies 4 3/4 to 353. Did I mention there is a big spec short. Same story in wheat, 421 1/2, plus a nickel. Beans try to give back some of yesterdays rally, but rebound to 3/4 higher, 968 3/4. Until meal rolls over, beans don't have a lot of down in them. Rice pauses 1/2 higher, 1215. More icebergs in the trade than the titanic ever had to deal with. In the pit days that kind of sandbagging would have got you a trip to the OIA, but now its just good computer business I guess. But then again, if someone cleared up a 5 lot error or out trade on the curb, which existed since there really was a curb, it was a felony, and totally pre arranged block trades are now legal. Go figure. But at least recognize that it is a different world you are competing in. Dow continues the melt up, 26,098, up 279, and bonds slip 16 to 150.10. Feels like bonds are waiting for any dow miscue for their next run up.
Spec short in corn twitched, and corn rallies 4 3/4 to 353. Did I mention there is a big spec short. Same story in wheat, 421 1/2, plus a nickel. Beans try to give back some of yesterdays rally, but rebound to 3/4 higher, 968 3/4. Until meal rolls over, beans don't have a lot of down in them. Rice pauses 1/2 higher, 1215. More icebergs in the trade than the titanic ever had to deal with. In the pit days that kind of sandbagging would have got you a trip to the OIA, but now its just good computer business I guess. But then again, if someone cleared up a 5 lot error or out trade on the curb, which existed since there really was a curb, it was a felony, and totally pre arranged block trades are now legal. Go figure. But at least recognize that it is a different world you are competing in. Dow continues the melt up, 26,098, up 279, and bonds slip 16 to 150.10. Feels like bonds are waiting for any dow miscue for their next run up.
1/16
Weekend SA weather was not all some had hoped for, and meal is firmer than most want to believe. Weather in America is a bit more volatile, and downright cold, than most would like, and some are of the opinion that we are entering a weather cycle that may hold more of the same volatility for an extended period. The simple truth is that we have had no real catastrophes for 5 years. Difficulties, yes, but failures, no. Corn settles 348 1/4, plus 2. Wheat continues its lower glide to this basing zone, off 4 to 416 1/2. If you are trading wheat and don't recognize the churn yet, please do your self a favor and stop trading wheat. Maybe watch the bonds for a while and realize the system. Beans up 7 1/2 on meals back, to 968. Rice up 33 1/2 to 1214 1/2 as the bear story is running into the fundamental story and the clock is winding down for the truth to be told. Dow punched a hole to the up side followed by a big break, but settles 18 higher, 25,819. Easy to rally, but watch this move for a lower high. Bonds up 10 tics to 150.26.
Weekend SA weather was not all some had hoped for, and meal is firmer than most want to believe. Weather in America is a bit more volatile, and downright cold, than most would like, and some are of the opinion that we are entering a weather cycle that may hold more of the same volatility for an extended period. The simple truth is that we have had no real catastrophes for 5 years. Difficulties, yes, but failures, no. Corn settles 348 1/4, plus 2. Wheat continues its lower glide to this basing zone, off 4 to 416 1/2. If you are trading wheat and don't recognize the churn yet, please do your self a favor and stop trading wheat. Maybe watch the bonds for a while and realize the system. Beans up 7 1/2 on meals back, to 968. Rice up 33 1/2 to 1214 1/2 as the bear story is running into the fundamental story and the clock is winding down for the truth to be told. Dow punched a hole to the up side followed by a big break, but settles 18 higher, 25,819. Easy to rally, but watch this move for a lower high. Bonds up 10 tics to 150.26.
1/12
Report came out heavy for the wheat, and the market dropped 12 3/4 to 420 1/2. Bit of a same story but to a lesser degree in the corn, off 2 1/2 to 346 1/4. Both had added open interest to nearly record spec short positions, so I'm not convinced a long weekend of reviewing the numbers is going to give the bears much solace. Beans got to the 470 number in my long term range of 470-510 carryover, and the market has accepted the number with a higher price than I expected. But one thing I have learned over the years is to respect the market, and if it wants to be valued at 960 1/2, gaining 10 1/2, with numbers finally published that match my work, that's the price we will work with. Accordingly, I will raise my expected floor, even if we reach the high end of carryover of 510, from the 870 area to closer to $920. One thing that has to be accounted for moving forward is that the tail end of bean harvest clearly was difficult and yield and quality suffered accordingly for a pretty big area. Meal is also showing more strength on the global market than I expected, and that also lends a hand in the breaks. Rice insider with increase in production ideas got his hand slapped by a offsetting but fully expected and necessary increased domestic and residual usage. That's just my opinion. Rice close up 8 to 1181, and the breaks should be weaker and shorter lived from here on. Jan beans and rice are off the board, so the elevators that are using the exchange as their bank now have a closed window for the next month and a half. Dow continues its melt up, 25,801, plus 246, while the bonds gain 2 tics to 150.16.
Report came out heavy for the wheat, and the market dropped 12 3/4 to 420 1/2. Bit of a same story but to a lesser degree in the corn, off 2 1/2 to 346 1/4. Both had added open interest to nearly record spec short positions, so I'm not convinced a long weekend of reviewing the numbers is going to give the bears much solace. Beans got to the 470 number in my long term range of 470-510 carryover, and the market has accepted the number with a higher price than I expected. But one thing I have learned over the years is to respect the market, and if it wants to be valued at 960 1/2, gaining 10 1/2, with numbers finally published that match my work, that's the price we will work with. Accordingly, I will raise my expected floor, even if we reach the high end of carryover of 510, from the 870 area to closer to $920. One thing that has to be accounted for moving forward is that the tail end of bean harvest clearly was difficult and yield and quality suffered accordingly for a pretty big area. Meal is also showing more strength on the global market than I expected, and that also lends a hand in the breaks. Rice insider with increase in production ideas got his hand slapped by a offsetting but fully expected and necessary increased domestic and residual usage. That's just my opinion. Rice close up 8 to 1181, and the breaks should be weaker and shorter lived from here on. Jan beans and rice are off the board, so the elevators that are using the exchange as their bank now have a closed window for the next month and a half. Dow continues its melt up, 25,801, plus 246, while the bonds gain 2 tics to 150.16.
1/11
Last day of doldrums in front of the report. Wheat off a penny, 433 1/4. Corn 1/4 lower in dull trade, 348 3/4. Beans take another nickel hit to 950 on another weak meal trade. Rice down 17 1/2 as the put buyer steps up the second leg of the bear trade in front of what must be something negative hiding in a yet private report. We will see at 11. Dow continues its melt up 204 more points to 25,555. As a trader its always wise to take profits, but this trade is way too dangerous to step in front of. Bonds still trying to base, 12 tics higher at 150.14.
Last day of doldrums in front of the report. Wheat off a penny, 433 1/4. Corn 1/4 lower in dull trade, 348 3/4. Beans take another nickel hit to 950 on another weak meal trade. Rice down 17 1/2 as the put buyer steps up the second leg of the bear trade in front of what must be something negative hiding in a yet private report. We will see at 11. Dow continues its melt up 204 more points to 25,555. As a trader its always wise to take profits, but this trade is way too dangerous to step in front of. Bonds still trying to base, 12 tics higher at 150.14.
1/10
Pre report trade. Corn unchanged, 349. Wheat up 2 to 434 1/4. Beans side 8 3/4 to 955 and this amount of weakness does concern me. Rice off 4 on a nothing day to 1190 1/2. I think the dow down 150 early gave everyone the jitters, but it recovered to 25,351, off 22. Bonds trying to base, off 5 tics to 150.02.
Pre report trade. Corn unchanged, 349. Wheat up 2 to 434 1/4. Beans side 8 3/4 to 955 and this amount of weakness does concern me. Rice off 4 on a nothing day to 1190 1/2. I think the dow down 150 early gave everyone the jitters, but it recovered to 25,351, off 22. Bonds trying to base, off 5 tics to 150.02.
1/09
No follow thru selling in corn, so a 1 3/4 bounce to 349. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 432 1/4 and all the wheat markets had buying. Beans slipped 3 to 963 3/4 on $3 lower meal. Rice up another 5 1/2 with the seller churning some and a short dated put buyer in the mix. I smell a rat in the puts, but I know the big picture is rice cash is tight and getting tighter. Maybe some optimistic WASDE inventory reporting to get a few more farmers to let go of physical is in the works? Dow up 123 more to 25,373 and bonds drop a point and 16 to 150.07. I warned earlier about trying to catch the knife this year. Should be time for a bounce, but barring a stock collapse, each bounce will be with less air. I will push everyone again to lock all debts for as long as possible at these rates, because they wont be here in the fall.
No follow thru selling in corn, so a 1 3/4 bounce to 349. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 432 1/4 and all the wheat markets had buying. Beans slipped 3 to 963 3/4 on $3 lower meal. Rice up another 5 1/2 with the seller churning some and a short dated put buyer in the mix. I smell a rat in the puts, but I know the big picture is rice cash is tight and getting tighter. Maybe some optimistic WASDE inventory reporting to get a few more farmers to let go of physical is in the works? Dow up 123 more to 25,373 and bonds drop a point and 16 to 150.07. I warned earlier about trying to catch the knife this year. Should be time for a bounce, but barring a stock collapse, each bounce will be with less air. I will push everyone again to lock all debts for as long as possible at these rates, because they wont be here in the fall.
1/08
Monday brought better weather stories, along with more opinions that the Thursday report has to be bearish, and the grains suffered. Meal and beans started weak, rebounding to only 4 lower in the beans to close 966 3/4. Wheat off 3 to 427 3/4. Corn soft from the start with no real bounce, down 4 at 347 1/4. Rice had more receipts cancelled and the bear has lost his defensive way, along with the realization that we could easily have a friendly report, 1189 close, plus 8 1/2. Dow off 19 to 25,250 and bonds slip 3 tics to 151.23.
Monday brought better weather stories, along with more opinions that the Thursday report has to be bearish, and the grains suffered. Meal and beans started weak, rebounding to only 4 lower in the beans to close 966 3/4. Wheat off 3 to 427 3/4. Corn soft from the start with no real bounce, down 4 at 347 1/4. Rice had more receipts cancelled and the bear has lost his defensive way, along with the realization that we could easily have a friendly report, 1189 close, plus 8 1/2. Dow off 19 to 25,250 and bonds slip 3 tics to 151.23.
1/05
Weak export sales as expected for the holiday week, with corn 1/4 higher in a tight range, 351 1/4. Wheat settles down 3 1/4 in the middle of the days range, 430 3/4. Beans up 3 to 970 3/4 with a firming meal market. Rice short seller ran out of bullets and on very low buying pressure was up 9 1/2 to 1180 1/2. Very nice to see a few of the export sales names in rice this week. Dow continues the new year with another melt up of 216 points to 25,269. Bonds give up 16 tics to 151.26.
Weak export sales as expected for the holiday week, with corn 1/4 higher in a tight range, 351 1/4. Wheat settles down 3 1/4 in the middle of the days range, 430 3/4. Beans up 3 to 970 3/4 with a firming meal market. Rice short seller ran out of bullets and on very low buying pressure was up 9 1/2 to 1180 1/2. Very nice to see a few of the export sales names in rice this week. Dow continues the new year with another melt up of 216 points to 25,269. Bonds give up 16 tics to 151.26.
1/04
Grains took a breather, with corn off 2 to 351, wheat off 2 as well, 434, and beans slipping a penny to 967 3/4. Have to tell you I expected more new year buying interest by now, and maybe there was just as much new money allocated to sell programs as buy. Clearly we have a slug of sell money in rice, but they hit a wall today, and in spite of hefty selling volume, the rice market closed 6 1/2 higher today, 1171. Dow continued its march up 175 and busting over 25K to 25,053. Its just a number, but its a big number. Not a bad time to re-evaluate the old portfolio. Bonds tried to break, but settled unchanged, 152.10.
Grains took a breather, with corn off 2 to 351, wheat off 2 as well, 434, and beans slipping a penny to 967 3/4. Have to tell you I expected more new year buying interest by now, and maybe there was just as much new money allocated to sell programs as buy. Clearly we have a slug of sell money in rice, but they hit a wall today, and in spite of hefty selling volume, the rice market closed 6 1/2 higher today, 1171. Dow continued its march up 175 and busting over 25K to 25,053. Its just a number, but its a big number. Not a bad time to re-evaluate the old portfolio. Bonds tried to break, but settled unchanged, 152.10.
1/03
2 1/2 cent follow thru in wheat to 436. Corn slips 1/4 to 353. Beans up another 4 cents to 968 3/4. Rice hit another 13 to 1164 1/2 on new algo selling by my read. That's 500-700 selling volume in the last two days in a post delivery environment with open interest under 10,000. Each one of these bear raids will be more expensive to unwind, given total US stocks tightness. When we next turn up, be slow to sell. Dow back to its old buying ways, plus 110 to 24,878 and bonds gain 18 to 152.10. There is a rift in the economic community about fed tightening, currencies both here and Euro, and the flattening of the yield curve. Will be an interesting show, but I would still caution that months from now, when then we get the next fed rate increase, and second or third wave of balance sheet unwind, the equity markets will not want to absorb it so smoothly.
2 1/2 cent follow thru in wheat to 436. Corn slips 1/4 to 353. Beans up another 4 cents to 968 3/4. Rice hit another 13 to 1164 1/2 on new algo selling by my read. That's 500-700 selling volume in the last two days in a post delivery environment with open interest under 10,000. Each one of these bear raids will be more expensive to unwind, given total US stocks tightness. When we next turn up, be slow to sell. Dow back to its old buying ways, plus 110 to 24,878 and bonds gain 18 to 152.10. There is a rift in the economic community about fed tightening, currencies both here and Euro, and the flattening of the yield curve. Will be an interesting show, but I would still caution that months from now, when then we get the next fed rate increase, and second or third wave of balance sheet unwind, the equity markets will not want to absorb it so smoothly.
1/02
Winter cold brought winter kill stories and a firm wheat market all day, up 6 1/2 to 433 1/2. Corn followed suite up 2 1/2, 353 1/4. Beans started strong with new money buying, sellers pushed it lower on the day, but couldn't keep it down, up 3 to close 964 3/4. Rice off 13 on a new slug of selling and deliveries cleaning up, 1177 1/2. This again puts us near the bottom of what I believe is the range. Rice will be the trial balloon, with shortened night hours starting Jan 22, 7pm to 9pm, Its a start. We also have block trading now, which, once the big players understand how to manipulate, could be long term difficult to contend with. Dow strong early but up only 33 to close 24,768. Re-read the last post on bonds, and be very carful trying to catch the knife. 151.24, off a point 08.
Winter cold brought winter kill stories and a firm wheat market all day, up 6 1/2 to 433 1/2. Corn followed suite up 2 1/2, 353 1/4. Beans started strong with new money buying, sellers pushed it lower on the day, but couldn't keep it down, up 3 to close 964 3/4. Rice off 13 on a new slug of selling and deliveries cleaning up, 1177 1/2. This again puts us near the bottom of what I believe is the range. Rice will be the trial balloon, with shortened night hours starting Jan 22, 7pm to 9pm, Its a start. We also have block trading now, which, once the big players understand how to manipulate, could be long term difficult to contend with. Dow strong early but up only 33 to close 24,768. Re-read the last post on bonds, and be very carful trying to catch the knife. 151.24, off a point 08.
12/29
Really quiet end to the year, with corn off 1 1/4 in a tight range,350 3/4. Wheat slips 3/4 to 427. Beans rebound a nickel, 961 3/4. Rice gives up 4 to 1190 1/2. The Jan rice short is out via flat buying and chasing the spread in. Would note that this is the first time in a long time that the spread had to compress for trade to clean up. Tuesday and Wednesday will be interesting to see both SA weather, and how the new commodity money is allocated. Watch crude for some early indications. Dow gets late selling to 24,735, minus 62 and bonds gain 9 tics to 153. I would expect the declines in bonds to be more aggressive this year in the churns, so if your gambling with The computer churn boys, don't expect the floor to be as stable moving forward. I would also note that the system will surly break down soon, if its this obvious to me, some quant from the east coast is figuring out how to trap as well. Lets have a happy and prosperous 2018.
Really quiet end to the year, with corn off 1 1/4 in a tight range,350 3/4. Wheat slips 3/4 to 427. Beans rebound a nickel, 961 3/4. Rice gives up 4 to 1190 1/2. The Jan rice short is out via flat buying and chasing the spread in. Would note that this is the first time in a long time that the spread had to compress for trade to clean up. Tuesday and Wednesday will be interesting to see both SA weather, and how the new commodity money is allocated. Watch crude for some early indications. Dow gets late selling to 24,735, minus 62 and bonds gain 9 tics to 153. I would expect the declines in bonds to be more aggressive this year in the churns, so if your gambling with The computer churn boys, don't expect the floor to be as stable moving forward. I would also note that the system will surly break down soon, if its this obvious to me, some quant from the east coast is figuring out how to trap as well. Lets have a happy and prosperous 2018.
12/28
Corn and wheat trade tight ranges, with wheat off 1/4 to 427 3/4 and corn giving back 1 3/4 of the recent rally to 352. Switching to march for beans and rice. Beans take a 10 3/4 cent hit to 956 3/4 with heavy liquidation of Jan futures as rice does the same, down 13 1/2 to 1194 1/2. Deliveries in meal were nearly current, carry limited beans to very light deliveries, while rice delivered current, but there is a 250 lot hanging chad in the rice. Tomorrow should sort out if there was a minor error, or someone new is at the dance. Dow up 9 to 24,797 and bonds slip 7 tics to 152.23. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, so don't be surprised if there is some hanky panky late.
Corn and wheat trade tight ranges, with wheat off 1/4 to 427 3/4 and corn giving back 1 3/4 of the recent rally to 352. Switching to march for beans and rice. Beans take a 10 3/4 cent hit to 956 3/4 with heavy liquidation of Jan futures as rice does the same, down 13 1/2 to 1194 1/2. Deliveries in meal were nearly current, carry limited beans to very light deliveries, while rice delivered current, but there is a 250 lot hanging chad in the rice. Tomorrow should sort out if there was a minor error, or someone new is at the dance. Dow up 9 to 24,797 and bonds slip 7 tics to 152.23. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, so don't be surprised if there is some hanky panky late.
12/27
A penny higher in corn, 353 3/4. Wheat up 5 3/4 on cold stories, 428. Beans give back 3 3/4 to 955 1/2 but SA weather getting press. Rice roll is the feature, 1179, minus 1/2. Dow off 4 to 24,788 and bonds rally a point and 10 to 152.30. This has been one of the more obvious churns. Anyone that doesn't think the computers are dining on the fools needs to look in the mirror, or statement, for bite marks. Tomorrow is first intentions for Jan deliveries in rice and beans, so make sure you are out by the close.
A penny higher in corn, 353 3/4. Wheat up 5 3/4 on cold stories, 428. Beans give back 3 3/4 to 955 1/2 but SA weather getting press. Rice roll is the feature, 1179, minus 1/2. Dow off 4 to 24,788 and bonds rally a point and 10 to 152.30. This has been one of the more obvious churns. Anyone that doesn't think the computers are dining on the fools needs to look in the mirror, or statement, for bite marks. Tomorrow is first intentions for Jan deliveries in rice and beans, so make sure you are out by the close.
12/26
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Corn up another 3/4 to 352 3/4. Wheat was off 2 1/2 to 422 1/4. Beans got a little SA weather boost, as well as commitments showing the spec had gotten out of longs, gaining 9 3/4 to 959 1/4. Rice had the banker roll today, with all open interest left in January basically in the bankers hands, but futures off 15 1/2 to 1179 1/2. Dow up 26, settling 24,792 and prepping for the year end marks, while bonds gain 20 tics more to 151.20.
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Corn up another 3/4 to 352 3/4. Wheat was off 2 1/2 to 422 1/4. Beans got a little SA weather boost, as well as commitments showing the spec had gotten out of longs, gaining 9 3/4 to 959 1/4. Rice had the banker roll today, with all open interest left in January basically in the bankers hands, but futures off 15 1/2 to 1179 1/2. Dow up 26, settling 24,792 and prepping for the year end marks, while bonds gain 20 tics more to 151.20.
12/22
Uneventful pre holiday trade. Corn up 3/4 to 352, while wheat slips 2 1/4 to 424 3/4. Beans stalled at 949 1/2, plus 3/4. Rice off 4 1/2 to 1195. Dow down 12 to 24,766, and bonds off 6 tics to 151.
Uneventful pre holiday trade. Corn up 3/4 to 352, while wheat slips 2 1/4 to 424 3/4. Beans stalled at 949 1/2, plus 3/4. Rice off 4 1/2 to 1195. Dow down 12 to 24,766, and bonds off 6 tics to 151.
12/21
Shorts covering in corn and wheat again, 351 1/4, plus 2 in the corn, and wheat gains 3 1/2 to 427. Good exports helped along the way. Beans slip down another 5 1/4 to 948 3/4. Meal was just ok, but beans were solid exports again. SA weather sure does give hope for big bean production.. Hope for China that is. China is playing a FM game with us for now. Rice up 15 1/2 to 1199 1/2 trading the options strikes, with plenty of air in between. Expect more of the same tomorrow. Dow back in the positive column, 24,778, plus 39 and bonds magically base, and march up 20 to 151.06. Who could have seen that coming? Thing to keep in mind for next year is that from here on, as the fed moves, bonds will need to follow better. If they don't, we will have transferred US monetary policy to the EU. That has more dollar ramifications than I would care to speculate on today.
Shorts covering in corn and wheat again, 351 1/4, plus 2 in the corn, and wheat gains 3 1/2 to 427. Good exports helped along the way. Beans slip down another 5 1/4 to 948 3/4. Meal was just ok, but beans were solid exports again. SA weather sure does give hope for big bean production.. Hope for China that is. China is playing a FM game with us for now. Rice up 15 1/2 to 1199 1/2 trading the options strikes, with plenty of air in between. Expect more of the same tomorrow. Dow back in the positive column, 24,778, plus 39 and bonds magically base, and march up 20 to 151.06. Who could have seen that coming? Thing to keep in mind for next year is that from here on, as the fed moves, bonds will need to follow better. If they don't, we will have transferred US monetary policy to the EU. That has more dollar ramifications than I would care to speculate on today.
12/20
Corn and wheat continue to base, with cash in both markets firming in regional trade, and receipts being used in wheat. Wheat gains 4 to 423 1/2 and corn up 1 3/4 to 349 1/4. Beans continue the slip lower to 954, down 2. Rice options have laid down a floor for futures, 1184, plus 12 1/2. Dow off 36 catching a breather, 24,739 and the bond churn might be complete in only 4 days, near record fast for a fleecing, 150.18, minus 30. The brag is out of one player taking 60 mil. That's only the one running his mouth at the bar by my guess, not the only one. What a great way to pad year end earnings. Something to keep in mind as we watch what could be more irrational trade to end the year. If someone wants to get stupid, lets not freeze up, but take advantage.
Corn and wheat continue to base, with cash in both markets firming in regional trade, and receipts being used in wheat. Wheat gains 4 to 423 1/2 and corn up 1 3/4 to 349 1/4. Beans continue the slip lower to 954, down 2. Rice options have laid down a floor for futures, 1184, plus 12 1/2. Dow off 36 catching a breather, 24,739 and the bond churn might be complete in only 4 days, near record fast for a fleecing, 150.18, minus 30. The brag is out of one player taking 60 mil. That's only the one running his mouth at the bar by my guess, not the only one. What a great way to pad year end earnings. Something to keep in mind as we watch what could be more irrational trade to end the year. If someone wants to get stupid, lets not freeze up, but take advantage.
12/19
Bonds down another 1.22 to 151.16. That's nearly 3 full points in 3 days. Boys aren't wasting any time raking in the dough on the Christmas grind. Dow off 48 to 24,775. Corn dull trade again, 347 1/2, plus 1/2. Wheat slips a penny to 419 1/2. Meal, and beans weaker again, with some reported issues shipping into China with FM restrictions, 956, down 5 1/2. Rice popped but settled back to 1/2 higher, 1171 1/2. There is a lot of rice options to be sorted out this week in the 1180 and $12 strikes. Just saying.
Bonds down another 1.22 to 151.16. That's nearly 3 full points in 3 days. Boys aren't wasting any time raking in the dough on the Christmas grind. Dow off 48 to 24,775. Corn dull trade again, 347 1/2, plus 1/2. Wheat slips a penny to 419 1/2. Meal, and beans weaker again, with some reported issues shipping into China with FM restrictions, 956, down 5 1/2. Rice popped but settled back to 1/2 higher, 1171 1/2. There is a lot of rice options to be sorted out this week in the 1180 and $12 strikes. Just saying.
12/18
Bonds lose 103 to 153.06 as the expected top shows to be in for that market churn. Dow melts up another 146 to 24,823. Grains were a mixed bag, with wheat 420 1/2, gaining 2 1/4 on global concerns, both a stable black sea price and Australia weather. Corn grinding around but 347 close, off 1/2. Beans lower by 5 3/4 to 961 1/2. Rice seems to be laying a base with a 1/2 cent higher close, 1171.
Bonds lose 103 to 153.06 as the expected top shows to be in for that market churn. Dow melts up another 146 to 24,823. Grains were a mixed bag, with wheat 420 1/2, gaining 2 1/4 on global concerns, both a stable black sea price and Australia weather. Corn grinding around but 347 close, off 1/2. Beans lower by 5 3/4 to 961 1/2. Rice seems to be laying a base with a 1/2 cent higher close, 1171.
12/15
Not really a lot to report on Fridays trade. Probed both sides of unchanged in all the grains and that's about it. Corn winds up off a penny, 347 1/2 . Wheat unchanged, 418 1/4. Beans slip 1/2 cent to 967 1/4 and rice is off a penny, 1070 1/2. Rice open interest has already put march over Jan. Pretty early for that, but shows the holiday mindset is in swing. Dow continues its year long melt up to 24,677, plus 120 and bonds gain 6 tics to 154.09.
Not really a lot to report on Fridays trade. Probed both sides of unchanged in all the grains and that's about it. Corn winds up off a penny, 347 1/2 . Wheat unchanged, 418 1/4. Beans slip 1/2 cent to 967 1/4 and rice is off a penny, 1070 1/2. Rice open interest has already put march over Jan. Pretty early for that, but shows the holiday mindset is in swing. Dow continues its year long melt up to 24,677, plus 120 and bonds gain 6 tics to 154.09.
12/14
Corn just tired of going down, off half a cent at 348 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/2 to 418 1/4. Solid exports, especially in meal, but the beans rolled over, down 11 1/2 to settle 967 3/4. Little more rain in SA making the rounds as the excuse de jour. Rice off 5 1/2 on pretty good volume as the sellers had a harder push today. 1171 1/2 and cash pricing going on here. Dow takes a breather, off 89 to 24,557 and bonds gain 13 tics to 154.03. High side of the bond range here if the waves stay in place, and I don't know what changes it.
Corn just tired of going down, off half a cent at 348 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/2 to 418 1/4. Solid exports, especially in meal, but the beans rolled over, down 11 1/2 to settle 967 3/4. Little more rain in SA making the rounds as the excuse de jour. Rice off 5 1/2 on pretty good volume as the sellers had a harder push today. 1171 1/2 and cash pricing going on here. Dow takes a breather, off 89 to 24,557 and bonds gain 13 tics to 154.03. High side of the bond range here if the waves stay in place, and I don't know what changes it.
12/13
Exports in the morning, a large spec short, and talk of what it would take to even up positions by yearend all having an effect on the grains today. Corn up 1 1/4 to 349, erasing yesterday. Wheat gains 6 to 416 3/4. Beans up 3 1/2, settling 979 1/4. Rice gets clobbered 49 lower with stops and a missing buyer, 1177. Dow continues its melt up 103 more to 24,646 and bonds gain a point 01 to 153.22.
Exports in the morning, a large spec short, and talk of what it would take to even up positions by yearend all having an effect on the grains today. Corn up 1 1/4 to 349, erasing yesterday. Wheat gains 6 to 416 3/4. Beans up 3 1/2, settling 979 1/4. Rice gets clobbered 49 lower with stops and a missing buyer, 1177. Dow continues its melt up 103 more to 24,646 and bonds gain a point 01 to 153.22.
12/12
WASDE was a non event, so after 10 minutes of computer jockeying, Market went back into computer mode. Take yesterday, rinse and repeat. Corn up on increased ethanol, but then closes off 1 1/4 to 347 3/4. Wheat has bearish export projections, rally, then off 2 3/4 to 410 3/4. Spec adding to shorts again. Beans and meal back to liquidation, 6 3/4 lower beans, 975 3/4. Rice up another 4 to 1226 and hitting some selling at 1230. Dow melting up another 124 to 24,543 and bonds slip 12 to 152.21 in front of fed interest rate raise expectations.
WASDE was a non event, so after 10 minutes of computer jockeying, Market went back into computer mode. Take yesterday, rinse and repeat. Corn up on increased ethanol, but then closes off 1 1/4 to 347 3/4. Wheat has bearish export projections, rally, then off 2 3/4 to 410 3/4. Spec adding to shorts again. Beans and meal back to liquidation, 6 3/4 lower beans, 975 3/4. Rice up another 4 to 1226 and hitting some selling at 1230. Dow melting up another 124 to 24,543 and bonds slip 12 to 152.21 in front of fed interest rate raise expectations.
12/11
Monday brings slightly better SA weather forecasts and weaker grains. Corn off 3 3/4 to 349. Wheat down 5 1/2 to 413 1/2. Beans close 982 1/2, losing 7 1/4. Looks like new shorts pushing corn and wheat, while long liquidation hitting meal and beans. Rice cash market firm and 1222 close, a gain of 15 1/2. Dow up another 83 to 24,419 and bonds gain 5 tics to 153.01. Financials are in march futures.
Monday brings slightly better SA weather forecasts and weaker grains. Corn off 3 3/4 to 349. Wheat down 5 1/2 to 413 1/2. Beans close 982 1/2, losing 7 1/4. Looks like new shorts pushing corn and wheat, while long liquidation hitting meal and beans. Rice cash market firm and 1222 close, a gain of 15 1/2. Dow up another 83 to 24,419 and bonds gain 5 tics to 153.01. Financials are in march futures.
12/08
Corn closes up 1 1/4 at 352 3/4, less than a penny from Monday. Wheat down 2 1/2 to 419. Weak meal had beans uneasy early, but crude is solid so beans close only 2 1/4 lower at 989 3/4. Meal commitments have the specs longer than most believe is a comfortable position. Remember, its summer in SA and they do have a "dome of fire" developing down in Argy. Rice off 6 1/2 but the old/new spreads quit pushing and we are near some solid bids, options based support, and technical support. 1206 1/2. Dow up 87 to end the week 24,318 and bonds find a tic to 154. Starting Monday we will be using march in the financials. Have a good weekend.
Corn closes up 1 1/4 at 352 3/4, less than a penny from Monday. Wheat down 2 1/2 to 419. Weak meal had beans uneasy early, but crude is solid so beans close only 2 1/4 lower at 989 3/4. Meal commitments have the specs longer than most believe is a comfortable position. Remember, its summer in SA and they do have a "dome of fire" developing down in Argy. Rice off 6 1/2 but the old/new spreads quit pushing and we are near some solid bids, options based support, and technical support. 1206 1/2. Dow up 87 to end the week 24,318 and bonds find a tic to 154. Starting Monday we will be using march in the financials. Have a good weekend.
12/07
Corn off 1 1/4 to 351 1/2. Reasonable exports.. Solid sales in beans, but with soft meal, beans settle down 10 3/4 to 992. This is really a SA weather story. Wheat off 3 3/4 to 421 1/2. Rice with solid exports, but new crop hedging attached to some old/new spreads capped us today, 1213, down 5 1/2. Cash is taking receipts again. Dow up 74 to 24,231 and bonds done testing the top of the churn, so 1.06 lower at 153.31.
Corn off 1 1/4 to 351 1/2. Reasonable exports.. Solid sales in beans, but with soft meal, beans settle down 10 3/4 to 992. This is really a SA weather story. Wheat off 3 3/4 to 421 1/2. Rice with solid exports, but new crop hedging attached to some old/new spreads capped us today, 1213, down 5 1/2. Cash is taking receipts again. Dow up 74 to 24,231 and bonds done testing the top of the churn, so 1.06 lower at 153.31.
12/06
Up and down trade with corn off a penny on the close, 352 3/4. Bearish numbers out of Canada help wheat down 7 1/2 to 425 1/4. Beans followed meal lead all day, still over the buck at 1002 3/4, minus 5 3/4. Crude was soft today and I don't think we have room for many days of that. Could be reasonable exports for corn and beans. What will be more important is how the market reacts. Rice gives back yesterdays gains on new crop sales and weak spreads. 1218 1/2, off 14 1/2. Financials were in for another churn day, 24,157, off 18 for the dow and up 11 tics in the bonds, 155.05.
Up and down trade with corn off a penny on the close, 352 3/4. Bearish numbers out of Canada help wheat down 7 1/2 to 425 1/4. Beans followed meal lead all day, still over the buck at 1002 3/4, minus 5 3/4. Crude was soft today and I don't think we have room for many days of that. Could be reasonable exports for corn and beans. What will be more important is how the market reacts. Rice gives back yesterdays gains on new crop sales and weak spreads. 1218 1/2, off 14 1/2. Financials were in for another churn day, 24,157, off 18 for the dow and up 11 tics in the bonds, 155.05.
12/05
Corn up 1/4 to 353 3/4. Wheat off another 2 1/2 to 432 3/4. Meal still ticking, and beans up a dime to 1008 1/2. Rice gains back 15 cents to 1233. Dow off 130, closing 24,175 and bonds pop22 tics to 154.26. Will be home tomorrow evening, but struggling with this bean rally.
Corn up 1/4 to 353 3/4. Wheat off another 2 1/2 to 432 3/4. Meal still ticking, and beans up a dime to 1008 1/2. Rice gains back 15 cents to 1233. Dow off 130, closing 24,175 and bonds pop22 tics to 154.26. Will be home tomorrow evening, but struggling with this bean rally.
12/04
Markets try to open firm, but roll over. Corn ends the day 353 1/2, down 5 1/4. Wheat slips 3 1/4 to 435 1/4. Beans up 4 1/4 to 998 1/2, but that's a dime off the highs with stupid strong meal. Rice bear raid, off 28 to 1218. Thin trade when the bull doesn't want to push. Dow up 67 to 24,305, but off 200 from the highs, and bonds reject low move, settling only 8 lower at 154.04. Ove the last two days the money boys have violently churned the Dow and bonds. Don't think they cant do that in the grains? Don't assume we are headed in one direction because of any days movement.
Markets try to open firm, but roll over. Corn ends the day 353 1/2, down 5 1/4. Wheat slips 3 1/4 to 435 1/4. Beans up 4 1/4 to 998 1/2, but that's a dime off the highs with stupid strong meal. Rice bear raid, off 28 to 1218. Thin trade when the bull doesn't want to push. Dow up 67 to 24,305, but off 200 from the highs, and bonds reject low move, settling only 8 lower at 154.04. Ove the last two days the money boys have violently churned the Dow and bonds. Don't think they cant do that in the grains? Don't assume we are headed in one direction because of any days movement.
12/01
Corn gains 3 more to end the week at 358 3/4. Wheat up 5 1/2 to 438 1/2 and weather in Australia could create a problem next week. Beans up 8 1/2 to 994 1/4 on the back of strong crude to start the day, and solid meal. In these three grains, we are at an area where some pricing is prudent, but I really want to stress that how we protect downside today will affect our decision processes for the rest of the year. Our downside risk is America has too much supply, and China is perceived to be getting enough supply from SA, especially in protein. The other side came back to mind yesterday listening to Santelli talk about the decline of the dollar over the last year. Add to that, Brazil has real political strife that can blow up at any time. SA currencies seem to have at least stabilized, and selling has subsided down there. Option Vol is very cheap. And more importantly, liquid. Rice down 7 to 1246 as the recent bull trade is getting full, and commitments show commercial long liquidation. Make sure for all the grains you are in a comfortable place for the dec 12 WASDE report. Dow rally from 350 lower to 36 lower, 24,238. Bonds close up a point 17, 154.12. That's a tic over Monday.
Corn gains 3 more to end the week at 358 3/4. Wheat up 5 1/2 to 438 1/2 and weather in Australia could create a problem next week. Beans up 8 1/2 to 994 1/4 on the back of strong crude to start the day, and solid meal. In these three grains, we are at an area where some pricing is prudent, but I really want to stress that how we protect downside today will affect our decision processes for the rest of the year. Our downside risk is America has too much supply, and China is perceived to be getting enough supply from SA, especially in protein. The other side came back to mind yesterday listening to Santelli talk about the decline of the dollar over the last year. Add to that, Brazil has real political strife that can blow up at any time. SA currencies seem to have at least stabilized, and selling has subsided down there. Option Vol is very cheap. And more importantly, liquid. Rice down 7 to 1246 as the recent bull trade is getting full, and commitments show commercial long liquidation. Make sure for all the grains you are in a comfortable place for the dec 12 WASDE report. Dow rally from 350 lower to 36 lower, 24,238. Bonds close up a point 17, 154.12. That's a tic over Monday.
11/30
Sticking with thoughts that low was made in corn yesterday. Corn closes 355 3/4, plus 2 1/4. Wheat off a penny and 3/4 to 433 on late selling and the delivery spread opening up. Meal tried both sides of the fence today and settled ok with beans off 6 3/4 to 985 3/4. Rice up 15 1/2 to 1253 as computers pushed upside stops. I started doing deliveries in 1986 at the board, and for such a concentrated field of participants as we now have, this was a sloppy delivery cycle. Looks like a few big fish who don't really understand that side of the fence overstayed their welcome, and capacity,, and firms that don't want to rile the customer. If I can protect the customers money, and teach him something at the same time that he can use for the rest of his life, I make the call. Did it then, and would do it again. The same guys who didn't like the first call were the ones who called in front of every cycle afterwards. Bonds off another 15 tics to 157.27 and dow continues the melt up to 24,274, a gain of 356. So much for my techie. We always said never try to pick a top or a bottom. You either go bald or get poop on your fingers. I always felt picking bottoms was safer. Generally a sound fundamental reason for the floor, and when you give up and sell, its only once, where tops can stay irrational day after day as you will buy more and more if you don't get punished. Also, its easier to wash poop off your fingers than regrow hair.
Sticking with thoughts that low was made in corn yesterday. Corn closes 355 3/4, plus 2 1/4. Wheat off a penny and 3/4 to 433 on late selling and the delivery spread opening up. Meal tried both sides of the fence today and settled ok with beans off 6 3/4 to 985 3/4. Rice up 15 1/2 to 1253 as computers pushed upside stops. I started doing deliveries in 1986 at the board, and for such a concentrated field of participants as we now have, this was a sloppy delivery cycle. Looks like a few big fish who don't really understand that side of the fence overstayed their welcome, and capacity,, and firms that don't want to rile the customer. If I can protect the customers money, and teach him something at the same time that he can use for the rest of his life, I make the call. Did it then, and would do it again. The same guys who didn't like the first call were the ones who called in front of every cycle afterwards. Bonds off another 15 tics to 157.27 and dow continues the melt up to 24,274, a gain of 356. So much for my techie. We always said never try to pick a top or a bottom. You either go bald or get poop on your fingers. I always felt picking bottoms was safer. Generally a sound fundamental reason for the floor, and when you give up and sell, its only once, where tops can stay irrational day after day as you will buy more and more if you don't get punished. Also, its easier to wash poop off your fingers than regrow hair.
11/29
December deliveries start tonight, so we will switch to march for corn and wheat.. 50K drop in open interest, new registrations and deliveries, and a 3 3/4 rally to 353 1/2. Export sales will set the tone, but I suspect we set a low for a while in corn today. Kind of the same basic story in wheat with new deliveries as well. 434 3/4, up 5 1/2. Beans grind around but meal holds firm, so 1/2 lower 992 1/2 settle. Rice up 7 and against selling last time here, 1237 1/2. Again, exports could surprise. Dow continues its melt up to 23,918, plus 107. A note of warning, one of my techies is thinking we are done here. Bonds off 31 to 153.10. Bank rally telling us to be wary of bonds.
December deliveries start tonight, so we will switch to march for corn and wheat.. 50K drop in open interest, new registrations and deliveries, and a 3 3/4 rally to 353 1/2. Export sales will set the tone, but I suspect we set a low for a while in corn today. Kind of the same basic story in wheat with new deliveries as well. 434 3/4, up 5 1/2. Beans grind around but meal holds firm, so 1/2 lower 992 1/2 settle. Rice up 7 and against selling last time here, 1237 1/2. Again, exports could surprise. Dow continues its melt up to 23,918, plus 107. A note of warning, one of my techies is thinking we are done here. Bonds off 31 to 153.10. Bank rally telling us to be wary of bonds.
11/28
Corn down another 2 1/2 to 336 1/4, with another 30k of open interest taken away. Hearding of the crowd doesn't get any more textbook than this, so keep it in mind as we approach bean and rice deliveries in a month. Wheat tried to base, closing up 1 1/4 to 410 3/4. Oats took another hit, but OI is pretty much cleared out of Dec, so tomorrow should do it. Beans slip 3 to 993, and could have been worse with meal weakness all day. Rice looked lower early, but no sponsor and spread roll with vs cash moving helped hold us up a penny, 1230 1/2. Dow lit on fire for 23,811, plus 249 as the melt up continues, and banks all rally even though bonds stay stable, off 2 tics at 154.09.
Corn down another 2 1/2 to 336 1/4, with another 30k of open interest taken away. Hearding of the crowd doesn't get any more textbook than this, so keep it in mind as we approach bean and rice deliveries in a month. Wheat tried to base, closing up 1 1/4 to 410 3/4. Oats took another hit, but OI is pretty much cleared out of Dec, so tomorrow should do it. Beans slip 3 to 993, and could have been worse with meal weakness all day. Rice looked lower early, but no sponsor and spread roll with vs cash moving helped hold us up a penny, 1230 1/2. Dow lit on fire for 23,811, plus 249 as the melt up continues, and banks all rally even though bonds stay stable, off 2 tics at 154.09.
11/27
Pre delivery pressure on corn, 338 3/4, off 3 1/2 and wheat, off 6 1/4 to 409 1/2. Expect more tomorrow and Wednesday barring outside influences. Way too late to get out of cash here, so don't let the computers run you out. Beans up 2 3/4 to 996, on the back of meal yet again. If you have beans left that you are uncomfortable with, please call or text. Rice hit a selling wall around 1240 for now, and closes 1229 1/2, off 12 1/2. Dow up 45 to 23,562 and bonds gain 3 tics to 154.11
Pre delivery pressure on corn, 338 3/4, off 3 1/2 and wheat, off 6 1/4 to 409 1/2. Expect more tomorrow and Wednesday barring outside influences. Way too late to get out of cash here, so don't let the computers run you out. Beans up 2 3/4 to 996, on the back of meal yet again. If you have beans left that you are uncomfortable with, please call or text. Rice hit a selling wall around 1240 for now, and closes 1229 1/2, off 12 1/2. Dow up 45 to 23,562 and bonds gain 3 tics to 154.11
11/24
Short Friday with so-so exports on the December corn and wheat and liquidation in front of first notice. Corn off 3 to 342 1/4 and wheat checking out new lows, 415 3/4, off 7. Beans give back part of Wednesdays rally to 993 1/4, minus 4,and rice gets a big puke seller down 25 out of the box, but strong exports and cash bring us back to unchanged, 1242. Dow up 32 to 23,517 and bonds slip 8 to 154.08.
Short Friday with so-so exports on the December corn and wheat and liquidation in front of first notice. Corn off 3 to 342 1/4 and wheat checking out new lows, 415 3/4, off 7. Beans give back part of Wednesdays rally to 993 1/4, minus 4,and rice gets a big puke seller down 25 out of the box, but strong exports and cash bring us back to unchanged, 1242. Dow up 32 to 23,517 and bonds slip 8 to 154.08.
11/22
Holiday trade. Corn up 1/4 to 345 1/4. Wheat gives back 2 to 422 3/4. Beans pop 8 1/4 to 997 1/4. Rice up 8 expecting Iraq confirm, 1242. Dow backs up 58 from yesterday, 23,485 while bonds gain 13 tics to 154.16.
Holiday trade. Corn up 1/4 to 345 1/4. Wheat gives back 2 to 422 3/4. Beans pop 8 1/4 to 997 1/4. Rice up 8 expecting Iraq confirm, 1242. Dow backs up 58 from yesterday, 23,485 while bonds gain 13 tics to 154.16.
11/21
Holiday trade begins. Corn flat 345. Beans off a penny, 989. Wheat churn up 2 3/4 to 424 3/4. Rice off 3 1/2, 1234. Dow path of least resistance is up,23,543, plus 148 and bonds gain 14 tics to 154.03. Banks have stayed solid in this bond rally. Should tell you something.
Holiday trade begins. Corn flat 345. Beans off a penny, 989. Wheat churn up 2 3/4 to 424 3/4. Rice off 3 1/2, 1234. Dow path of least resistance is up,23,543, plus 148 and bonds gain 14 tics to 154.03. Banks have stayed solid in this bond rally. Should tell you something.
11/20
Monday provided our churn market in wheat, giving up Fridays gains to 422, off 5 1/4. A peek below 420 on low volume just to plant a downward seed as well. Corn absorbed weekend pricing and gained 2 to 345. Not the OI drop I would have expected with the volume traded, and oats cant get out of their own way, so radar up. Beans follow meal and crude down again, and right back up as they catch a bid, minus 1/2 cent at the end, 990. Rice up 9 to 1237 1/2, but hitting options pricing so the upside will need a new stimulant soon. Dow up 70 to 23,395 and bonds slip 4 to 153.21.
Monday provided our churn market in wheat, giving up Fridays gains to 422, off 5 1/4. A peek below 420 on low volume just to plant a downward seed as well. Corn absorbed weekend pricing and gained 2 to 345. Not the OI drop I would have expected with the volume traded, and oats cant get out of their own way, so radar up. Beans follow meal and crude down again, and right back up as they catch a bid, minus 1/2 cent at the end, 990. Rice up 9 to 1237 1/2, but hitting options pricing so the upside will need a new stimulant soon. Dow up 70 to 23,395 and bonds slip 4 to 153.21.
11/17
Friday was a day of reckoning for the short spec. Corn gains 6 1/2 to 343 on not too much liquidation. Wheat up 5 3/4 to 427 1/4 with flat OI. Beans ride the back of meal and gain 18 1/2 by the end of the day, 990 1/2. Will be interesting to see just how much selling shows Monday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised for us to need another dime at least, weather its flat or basis driven. Don't forget,how far a spec can drive up a market is just as much unknown as their push down. Rice up another 12 to 1228 1/2 and still cheap in the big picture, but back into the meat of options. Dow gives back 108 to 23,316 and bonds gain 7 tics to 153.25.
Friday was a day of reckoning for the short spec. Corn gains 6 1/2 to 343 on not too much liquidation. Wheat up 5 3/4 to 427 1/4 with flat OI. Beans ride the back of meal and gain 18 1/2 by the end of the day, 990 1/2. Will be interesting to see just how much selling shows Monday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised for us to need another dime at least, weather its flat or basis driven. Don't forget,how far a spec can drive up a market is just as much unknown as their push down. Rice up another 12 to 1228 1/2 and still cheap in the big picture, but back into the meat of options. Dow gives back 108 to 23,316 and bonds gain 7 tics to 153.25.
11/16
More spec shorts, slightly lower corn, 336 1/2 and a new low, down 1 3/4. No follow thru on the wheat hit from yesterday and a 1 1/2 cent rally, 421 1/2. No follow thru on the bean pop, and 4 1/4 lower. 972. Starting to see the grind I'm talking about? Don't get caught in the grind. 24 rice receipts canceled out of CMS McGehee to service what the farmer wont sell, rice up 8 to 1216 1/2.. See private rice text for details, or call. Bonds off 14 to 153.18, almost on cue if you are a sucker in the grind, and speaking of which, dow magically up 162 to 23,424. Lows for this move yesterday, some scary stories to get you out or short, and wham, loser trade. Grind. I will note its a month and a half to Christmas, and this is a rinse and repeat story.
More spec shorts, slightly lower corn, 336 1/2 and a new low, down 1 3/4. No follow thru on the wheat hit from yesterday and a 1 1/2 cent rally, 421 1/2. No follow thru on the bean pop, and 4 1/4 lower. 972. Starting to see the grind I'm talking about? Don't get caught in the grind. 24 rice receipts canceled out of CMS McGehee to service what the farmer wont sell, rice up 8 to 1216 1/2.. See private rice text for details, or call. Bonds off 14 to 153.18, almost on cue if you are a sucker in the grind, and speaking of which, dow magically up 162 to 23,424. Lows for this move yesterday, some scary stories to get you out or short, and wham, loser trade. Grind. I will note its a month and a half to Christmas, and this is a rinse and repeat story.
11/15
No more downward momentum for corn, gaining 3/4 to 338 1/4 and talk finally gaining traction that the short spec is way over his skis. Wheat drops 8 to 420 and some talk of Ukraine and Egypt and Russia, but really just computers churning the suckers trying to hop the next trend with tight stops. See the theme repeat in the bonds, just a longer window. Don't have to look too far to see it everywhere, so don't be a sucker with kneejerk trading decisions. Bean bins are mostly closed and oil led the way today, which concerns me historically, But with Bio in the news, need to be more wary, Anyway, beans up 8 1/2 to 976 1/4. Our earlier quoted private tender Iraq wheat tender did in fact have wings as suspected, and 90K of milled rice has supposedly been booked, servicing Arkansas co-ops and La . milling interests. Domestics up the bid to get cash, and this will be a repeated theme this year. Rice up 59 cents to 1208 1/2. Bear only covered net 300 shorts in open interest, so a stable market will force him out of a goodly amount more over the next few days if this rally holds. Dow off 113 to 23,262 and bonds up 1.04 to 154. From last Monday to today, almost 2 full point of pure churn. See above an remember, everything you can trade is at the same risk for the same action for the next several months.
No more downward momentum for corn, gaining 3/4 to 338 1/4 and talk finally gaining traction that the short spec is way over his skis. Wheat drops 8 to 420 and some talk of Ukraine and Egypt and Russia, but really just computers churning the suckers trying to hop the next trend with tight stops. See the theme repeat in the bonds, just a longer window. Don't have to look too far to see it everywhere, so don't be a sucker with kneejerk trading decisions. Bean bins are mostly closed and oil led the way today, which concerns me historically, But with Bio in the news, need to be more wary, Anyway, beans up 8 1/2 to 976 1/4. Our earlier quoted private tender Iraq wheat tender did in fact have wings as suspected, and 90K of milled rice has supposedly been booked, servicing Arkansas co-ops and La . milling interests. Domestics up the bid to get cash, and this will be a repeated theme this year. Rice up 59 cents to 1208 1/2. Bear only covered net 300 shorts in open interest, so a stable market will force him out of a goodly amount more over the next few days if this rally holds. Dow off 113 to 23,262 and bonds up 1.04 to 154. From last Monday to today, almost 2 full point of pure churn. See above an remember, everything you can trade is at the same risk for the same action for the next several months.
11/14
Crude weak, so ethanol slips, and corn harvest going straight to the elevator pushes corn down 4 3/4 to 337 1/2. Beans follow down 6 1/2 to 967 3/4. Wheat finds a bid, up 3 3/4 to 428 and rice pops 13 1/2 to 1149 1/2. Short bit off more than he could chew today, but I would think he will have to come back tomorrow to defend. Grains should have weak exports Thursday so there is no incentive to pay up for corn or beans this week. Next week might be a different story. The market finds the news to blow out when it gets one sided, and we are getting very one sided short. Dow rallies from a soft start to settle down 31 tics, 23,375. Bonds find 15 to the good, 152.28. Expect tomorrow to be a grinding drip.
Crude weak, so ethanol slips, and corn harvest going straight to the elevator pushes corn down 4 3/4 to 337 1/2. Beans follow down 6 1/2 to 967 3/4. Wheat finds a bid, up 3 3/4 to 428 and rice pops 13 1/2 to 1149 1/2. Short bit off more than he could chew today, but I would think he will have to come back tomorrow to defend. Grains should have weak exports Thursday so there is no incentive to pay up for corn or beans this week. Next week might be a different story. The market finds the news to blow out when it gets one sided, and we are getting very one sided short. Dow rallies from a soft start to settle down 31 tics, 23,375. Bonds find 15 to the good, 152.28. Expect tomorrow to be a grinding drip.
11/13
Global grain excess stories, a big American crop and specs that want to sell more all working to put the market down today. Wheat opened weak, and when it couldn't bounce, the bean bears went after, and took out technical support. Commitments of traders showed room for the bears to roam in the beans, and export inspections were soft across the board. Corn was off the least, down 1 1/4 to 342 1/4 and holding the low end of the range with a big spec short already committed. Wheat off 7 1/4 to 424 1/4 and beans down 12 3/4 to 974 1/4. Not a pretty day or close. Rice spec is moving more in to the short zone while commercials are acquiring long position from them. This price also attracts export business that I will argue makes for a higher floor this spring. Rice off 6 at 1136, again with solid commercial put selling for all appearances. Dow up 24 to 23,406 and bonds gain 3 to 152.13 with no follow thru of Fridays break.
Global grain excess stories, a big American crop and specs that want to sell more all working to put the market down today. Wheat opened weak, and when it couldn't bounce, the bean bears went after, and took out technical support. Commitments of traders showed room for the bears to roam in the beans, and export inspections were soft across the board. Corn was off the least, down 1 1/4 to 342 1/4 and holding the low end of the range with a big spec short already committed. Wheat off 7 1/4 to 424 1/4 and beans down 12 3/4 to 974 1/4. Not a pretty day or close. Rice spec is moving more in to the short zone while commercials are acquiring long position from them. This price also attracts export business that I will argue makes for a higher floor this spring. Rice off 6 at 1136, again with solid commercial put selling for all appearances. Dow up 24 to 23,406 and bonds gain 3 to 152.13 with no follow thru of Fridays break.
11/10
Friday runs out of sellers for the grains. Corn up a couple to 343 1/2. Beans up 2 as well, 987, with strong meal trade. Wheat gains 2 1/2 to 431 1/2. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1142 with lots of options activity at lower vol. Dow down 34 to 23,382 and bonds tank 1.18 to 152.10. Still in a range so I wouldn't get too worked up.
Friday runs out of sellers for the grains. Corn up a couple to 343 1/2. Beans up 2 as well, 987, with strong meal trade. Wheat gains 2 1/2 to 431 1/2. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1142 with lots of options activity at lower vol. Dow down 34 to 23,382 and bonds tank 1.18 to 152.10. Still in a range so I wouldn't get too worked up.
11/09
Usda throws the corn a curveball with record yield numbers, and the market lost 6 3/4 to 341 1/2. Added another 25K to open interest and the spec is a loaded short. With these prices working for the end users and farmers willing to store ,I'm not sure we get much more pressure in the short run, and a weather scare down south could have a skinny door out for 20 cents or so. Wheat gained 2 1/4 to 429 on slightly larger exports. Beans drop 13 1/2 to 985 as it still is an easier pill to swallow a bean sale than a corn sale for now. Rice up 2 1/2, at 1143 1/2 rejecting the short seller and finding an iceberg march buyer. Dow rallies 150 points from the lows, but still 75 lower settle, 23,416 and bonds drop 15 to 153.28.
Usda throws the corn a curveball with record yield numbers, and the market lost 6 3/4 to 341 1/2. Added another 25K to open interest and the spec is a loaded short. With these prices working for the end users and farmers willing to store ,I'm not sure we get much more pressure in the short run, and a weather scare down south could have a skinny door out for 20 cents or so. Wheat gained 2 1/4 to 429 on slightly larger exports. Beans drop 13 1/2 to 985 as it still is an easier pill to swallow a bean sale than a corn sale for now. Rice up 2 1/2, at 1143 1/2 rejecting the short seller and finding an iceberg march buyer. Dow rallies 150 points from the lows, but still 75 lower settle, 23,416 and bonds drop 15 to 153.28.
11/08
Another day of evening up in front of tomorrows numbers. Corn up 1/2 to 348 1/4. Wheat off 1/2 to 426 3/4 after a bear raid ran out of steam. Beans gain 2 1/2 to 998 1/2. Rice bear strikes again, minus 10 1/2 to 1141, most certainly sure that the USDA will add to production and longs will sell out to the hearding. That's just speculation. Dow up 3 to 23,491 and bonds drop 11 to 154.11. Nothing to report out of line in deliveries so lets see how export sales start the morning.
Another day of evening up in front of tomorrows numbers. Corn up 1/2 to 348 1/4. Wheat off 1/2 to 426 3/4 after a bear raid ran out of steam. Beans gain 2 1/2 to 998 1/2. Rice bear strikes again, minus 10 1/2 to 1141, most certainly sure that the USDA will add to production and longs will sell out to the hearding. That's just speculation. Dow up 3 to 23,491 and bonds drop 11 to 154.11. Nothing to report out of line in deliveries so lets see how export sales start the morning.
10/07
Dead day in corn, ending off 1/4 cent, 347 3/4. Wheat gives back 3 1/2 of yesterdays rally to close 427 1/4. Beans up a couple to 996. Rice off 1/2 to 1151 1/2. All trade is prepping for Thursdays numbers, which most, including myself, will immediately dissect and dispute. Dow gives up its rally to settle one higher, 23,488 and bonds up another 15 tics, 154.22.
Dead day in corn, ending off 1/4 cent, 347 3/4. Wheat gives back 3 1/2 of yesterdays rally to close 427 1/4. Beans up a couple to 996. Rice off 1/2 to 1151 1/2. All trade is prepping for Thursdays numbers, which most, including myself, will immediately dissect and dispute. Dow gives up its rally to settle one higher, 23,488 and bonds up another 15 tics, 154.22.
11/06
Corn had the most to harvest, so early buying faded by the end of the day to settle off 1/4 to 348. Wheat shorts still feeling the pinch, plus a nickel, 430 3/4. Beans recover a good part of Fridays losses to close 994, up 7 1/4. Rice off 5 1/2 at 1152, but a dime off the lows. Dow gains 38 to 23,487 and bonds up another 18 tics to 154.07.
Corn had the most to harvest, so early buying faded by the end of the day to settle off 1/4 to 348. Wheat shorts still feeling the pinch, plus a nickel, 430 3/4. Beans recover a good part of Fridays losses to close 994, up 7 1/4. Rice off 5 1/2 at 1152, but a dime off the lows. Dow gains 38 to 23,487 and bonds up another 18 tics to 154.07.
11/03
Friday was selling day in front of another harvest weekend. Corn gives up Thursdays gains, minus 2 1/4 to 348 1/4. Wheat down only a quarter, 425 3/4. Beans give up most of the last two days to 986 3/4, off 12 1/2. Rice pops 14 to 1157 1/2 on not much volume. Commitments of traders tell you all you need to know about these grains today. Big spec short in corn and wheat makes it harder to break without outside help. Spec long in the meal and beans, as well as a soft SA currency market makes it easier to push protein down. Rice has had a wonderful shift from mostly spec long to much stronger commercial hands. This week will be spent setting up for Thursdays report. Dow up 5 to 23,449 and bonds gain 6 tics to 153.21
Friday was selling day in front of another harvest weekend. Corn gives up Thursdays gains, minus 2 1/4 to 348 1/4. Wheat down only a quarter, 425 3/4. Beans give up most of the last two days to 986 3/4, off 12 1/2. Rice pops 14 to 1157 1/2 on not much volume. Commitments of traders tell you all you need to know about these grains today. Big spec short in corn and wheat makes it harder to break without outside help. Spec long in the meal and beans, as well as a soft SA currency market makes it easier to push protein down. Rice has had a wonderful shift from mostly spec long to much stronger commercial hands. This week will be spent setting up for Thursdays report. Dow up 5 to 23,449 and bonds gain 6 tics to 153.21
11/02
Looks like I was a few days early on the wheat story, but it lead the way higher today, plus 8 to 426 on a short spec over his skis, some receipts canceled, and Iraq purchases.
Room to run some from here. Beans also up 8 to 999 1/4 with conflicting stories out there. A Couple private forecasters have yields up over the USDA, but global production shrink. Beans and meal had solid, if not stellar export sales. Corn up 2 1/4 to 350 1/2, shrugging off moderate exports, a high probability of increased production, and harvest running at a quick pace over the coming weekend. Ultimately, the large spec short and cheap flat price made corn an easy follower of wheat today. Rice had solid exports again this week, and the spec showed that he is most likely already a reasonable short, as he didn't have the bullets to fire and sold the bulk of new positions at the lows. Not the way to build a winning position. Informa had a small increase In rice production, and that is usually gospel to the USDA. Maybe increase yield a little and take down incoming stocks? I'm told there is a US only, export quote out to Iraq, and they just did a big private buy of wheat. Us will have a delegation in China next week as well. Doesn't seem a smart time to be building a big spec short to me. Dow up 72 to 23,444 and bonds gain 23 as well, 153.15.
Looks like I was a few days early on the wheat story, but it lead the way higher today, plus 8 to 426 on a short spec over his skis, some receipts canceled, and Iraq purchases.
Room to run some from here. Beans also up 8 to 999 1/4 with conflicting stories out there. A Couple private forecasters have yields up over the USDA, but global production shrink. Beans and meal had solid, if not stellar export sales. Corn up 2 1/4 to 350 1/2, shrugging off moderate exports, a high probability of increased production, and harvest running at a quick pace over the coming weekend. Ultimately, the large spec short and cheap flat price made corn an easy follower of wheat today. Rice had solid exports again this week, and the spec showed that he is most likely already a reasonable short, as he didn't have the bullets to fire and sold the bulk of new positions at the lows. Not the way to build a winning position. Informa had a small increase In rice production, and that is usually gospel to the USDA. Maybe increase yield a little and take down incoming stocks? I'm told there is a US only, export quote out to Iraq, and they just did a big private buy of wheat. Us will have a delegation in China next week as well. Doesn't seem a smart time to be building a big spec short to me. Dow up 72 to 23,444 and bonds gain 23 as well, 153.15.
11/01
Shorts starting to feel the pressure in corn with a 2 1/2 cent rally to 348 1/4. Hearing after the close one of the private forecasters raised his corn production numbers, but corn is unchanged in the early night trade. Wheat ended off 1/2 at 418. Beans rallied 6 1/2 to 991 1/4 as the bin doors are closing and the elevators are now going to have to chase a little. Rice has its short term computer seller working again, And getting short by my count, not just exiting longs. Down 9 to 1150 1/2, but well off the lows where good volume is a loser short. Export sales tomorrow aren't expected to be much, but this price point will attract more exports, to the detriment of local mills everywhere later in the season. Dow up 47, 23,372 and bonds up 9 tics to 152.24.
Shorts starting to feel the pressure in corn with a 2 1/2 cent rally to 348 1/4. Hearing after the close one of the private forecasters raised his corn production numbers, but corn is unchanged in the early night trade. Wheat ended off 1/2 at 418. Beans rallied 6 1/2 to 991 1/4 as the bin doors are closing and the elevators are now going to have to chase a little. Rice has its short term computer seller working again, And getting short by my count, not just exiting longs. Down 9 to 1150 1/2, but well off the lows where good volume is a loser short. Export sales tomorrow aren't expected to be much, but this price point will attract more exports, to the detriment of local mills everywhere later in the season. Dow up 47, 23,372 and bonds up 9 tics to 152.24.
10/31
Happy Halloween. Corn testing lows three lower, 345 3/4. Wheat off a surprising 6 1/4 more to 418 1/2. This is with some new export business to the middle east. I would note that yet again volume and open interest increase with this break, spec shorts digging deeper. Beans stable up 1/4 to 984 3/4 and the spreads starting to tighten. Rice takes it on the chin down 17 as month end positioning hit the market as far as possible ,1159 1/2, bringing in new long side hedging near the lows to stop the break. Other than spec liquidation, I'm at a loss for why anyone would sell this market even near here. Dow up 34 to 23,325 and bonds gain 3 tics to 152.15.
Happy Halloween. Corn testing lows three lower, 345 3/4. Wheat off a surprising 6 1/4 more to 418 1/2. This is with some new export business to the middle east. I would note that yet again volume and open interest increase with this break, spec shorts digging deeper. Beans stable up 1/4 to 984 3/4 and the spreads starting to tighten. Rice takes it on the chin down 17 as month end positioning hit the market as far as possible ,1159 1/2, bringing in new long side hedging near the lows to stop the break. Other than spec liquidation, I'm at a loss for why anyone would sell this market even near here. Dow up 34 to 23,325 and bonds gain 3 tics to 152.15.
10/30
Switching to Jan for the beans and rice. Beans off 2 to 984 1/2 with only 50 deliveries. Rice off 8 to 1176 1/2 with 1200 receipts delivered and current. Massive volume in rice with over 40% of total open interest traded. Corn unchanged at 348 3/4. Wheat down another 2 1/2 to 424 3/4. Hurting for anymore wheat bear news, so expect wheat to follow corn, but with a more friendly stance. Spec short is getting bigger. Dow off 81,settling 23,291 and bonds up a point 06 to 152.12. Guess I should have put some money on the table on the 26th when bonds showed support.
Switching to Jan for the beans and rice. Beans off 2 to 984 1/2 with only 50 deliveries. Rice off 8 to 1176 1/2 with 1200 receipts delivered and current. Massive volume in rice with over 40% of total open interest traded. Corn unchanged at 348 3/4. Wheat down another 2 1/2 to 424 3/4. Hurting for anymore wheat bear news, so expect wheat to follow corn, but with a more friendly stance. Spec short is getting bigger. Dow off 81,settling 23,291 and bonds up a point 06 to 152.12. Guess I should have put some money on the table on the 26th when bonds showed support.
10/27
Beans and rice both have a bit of a bounce on Friday, rice to 1155, up 6 and beans settle 975 1/4, plus 4 cents. Beans had no support from the meal, and surprised it didn't put the heat on the options players. Corn and wheat have declining charts and rising open interest, with the added benefit of a spec short thinking about getting over his skis. Wheat down 4 1/2 to 427 1/4 and corn off 1 3/4 to 348 3/4. Dow ends up 23 at 23,372 and bonds rally 15 tics to close the week 151.06. Rice and beans no longer have the November options to contain movements, so there is room for more violent swings this week.
Beans and rice both have a bit of a bounce on Friday, rice to 1155, up 6 and beans settle 975 1/4, plus 4 cents. Beans had no support from the meal, and surprised it didn't put the heat on the options players. Corn and wheat have declining charts and rising open interest, with the added benefit of a spec short thinking about getting over his skis. Wheat down 4 1/2 to 427 1/4 and corn off 1 3/4 to 348 3/4. Dow ends up 23 at 23,372 and bonds rally 15 tics to close the week 151.06. Rice and beans no longer have the November options to contain movements, so there is room for more violent swings this week.
10/26
Solid exports for beans and rice, but the bears shook that off and hit rice 17 1/2 to 1149, and beans down 4 1/4 to 971 1/4. These prices are directly affected by sufficient stocks for delivery and options expiration. Please keep this in mind near the end of November when we approach dec corn deliveries. Corn off 1/2 to 350 1/2 and wheat gives up another 3 3/4 to 431 3/4. Dow up 48 to 23,349 and bonds slip 6 tics to 150.23. Bonds are at long term support levels to me.
Solid exports for beans and rice, but the bears shook that off and hit rice 17 1/2 to 1149, and beans down 4 1/4 to 971 1/4. These prices are directly affected by sufficient stocks for delivery and options expiration. Please keep this in mind near the end of November when we approach dec corn deliveries. Corn off 1/2 to 350 1/2 and wheat gives up another 3 3/4 to 431 3/4. Dow up 48 to 23,349 and bonds slip 6 tics to 150.23. Bonds are at long term support levels to me.
10/25
Beans try a rally early, but close unchanged, 975 1/2. Don't forget Friday options expiration. Corn off a penny and three quarters to 351. Big crop and getting bigger. Wheat loses 2 1/2 to 435 1/2. Brazil talking about easing tariffs to import wheat and we would fall into that market. Worth watching. Rice moved big volume at 1160 area, and a wonderful transfer of ownership has taken place, from weaker long hands to stronger. Dow gives back 102 to end the day 23,301 and bonds lose 25 as well to 150.29.
Beans try a rally early, but close unchanged, 975 1/2. Don't forget Friday options expiration. Corn off a penny and three quarters to 351. Big crop and getting bigger. Wheat loses 2 1/2 to 435 1/2. Brazil talking about easing tariffs to import wheat and we would fall into that market. Worth watching. Rice moved big volume at 1160 area, and a wonderful transfer of ownership has taken place, from weaker long hands to stronger. Dow gives back 102 to end the day 23,301 and bonds lose 25 as well to 150.29.
10/24
Not much follow thru in corn and wheat, corn up 1 1/2 to 352 3/4 and wheat up 1 1/4 to 438. Beans dropped 5 1/4 to 975 1/2. Rice fell 37 cents to 1160 1/2. Rice below 1160 gives the options players almost a perfect trade, with 1000 calls worthless, and 1500 written puts now in the money for a big premium check and a short covered position that could not have been executed in the futures. Opens the door to more exports as well. Good long term action for rice in the bin. Beans couldn't muster any strength, and now have the blueprint for milking the spec long in their market by Fridays close. Lots of 960 and 950 open interest to spin for a profit. Nov 970 puts for a penny and a half with 3 full days of trade is pretty good odds if your in a position to play with cheap commissions. Not so attractive to retail players. Casino money only.
Not much follow thru in corn and wheat, corn up 1 1/2 to 352 3/4 and wheat up 1 1/4 to 438. Beans dropped 5 1/4 to 975 1/2. Rice fell 37 cents to 1160 1/2. Rice below 1160 gives the options players almost a perfect trade, with 1000 calls worthless, and 1500 written puts now in the money for a big premium check and a short covered position that could not have been executed in the futures. Opens the door to more exports as well. Good long term action for rice in the bin. Beans couldn't muster any strength, and now have the blueprint for milking the spec long in their market by Fridays close. Lots of 960 and 950 open interest to spin for a profit. Nov 970 puts for a penny and a half with 3 full days of trade is pretty good odds if your in a position to play with cheap commissions. Not so attractive to retail players. Casino money only.
10/23
I would refer to Monday as "running of the shorts". Spec shorts got over their skis in corn and wheat, and the computers started to rustle the herd. Corn up 6 3/4 to 351 1/4 and wheat gaining 10 3/4 to 436 3/4. Beans have a small spec long, so could only muster a couple higher , 980 3/4. Rice off a dime and giving back most of Fridays gain, 1197 1/2. Friday is options expiration for rice and beans so pay attention to the strikes. For rice the 12 and 11.80 are biggest, while there is room to churn the beans thru a range of 9.60 to $10. On the high side of the bean range, you need to have an itchy trigger finger. Hearing numerous stories of how much basis is jumping around, and how quickly. Don't miss a change to grab a deferred ship basis pop if its out there. Dow off 49 to 23,228 and bonds up 5 tics to 152.11.
I would refer to Monday as "running of the shorts". Spec shorts got over their skis in corn and wheat, and the computers started to rustle the herd. Corn up 6 3/4 to 351 1/4 and wheat gaining 10 3/4 to 436 3/4. Beans have a small spec long, so could only muster a couple higher , 980 3/4. Rice off a dime and giving back most of Fridays gain, 1197 1/2. Friday is options expiration for rice and beans so pay attention to the strikes. For rice the 12 and 11.80 are biggest, while there is room to churn the beans thru a range of 9.60 to $10. On the high side of the bean range, you need to have an itchy trigger finger. Hearing numerous stories of how much basis is jumping around, and how quickly. Don't miss a change to grab a deferred ship basis pop if its out there. Dow off 49 to 23,228 and bonds up 5 tics to 152.11.
10/20
Friday brought weekend hedging as well as some weaker longs headed for the sidelines. Corn wanting to test lows, down 4 1/2 to 344 1/2. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 426. Beans lose 7 3/4 to 978 3/4. Will be interesting to see what Monday brings with weather related harvest issues out there. Rice gains 14 1/2 to 1207 1/2. Who ever wrote all the November puts looks to collect 1/2 million dollars by Friday if this rally keeps up. Dow lights it up for another 163 to 23,277 and bonds lose 1.11 to 152.06.
Friday brought weekend hedging as well as some weaker longs headed for the sidelines. Corn wanting to test lows, down 4 1/2 to 344 1/2. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 426. Beans lose 7 3/4 to 978 3/4. Will be interesting to see what Monday brings with weather related harvest issues out there. Rice gains 14 1/2 to 1207 1/2. Who ever wrote all the November puts looks to collect 1/2 million dollars by Friday if this rally keeps up. Dow lights it up for another 163 to 23,277 and bonds lose 1.11 to 152.06.
10/19
Pretty dull day with some yield variability coming across desks. Basis is doing its job of making farmers store rather than sell, and we all know once the bin door closes, it doesn't open for a dime. Market will have to pay the farmer, or farmer will have to pay the banker. Price and the calendar will determine the order. Corn up 1/2 to 349. Beans gain 2 1/4 to 986 1/2. Wheat 2 3/4 higher to 432 3/4. Rice settles 1193, minus 1 1/2. Solid export sales across the board. Dow opened and fell 150 before recovering to unchanged, 23,114. Bonds settle near middle of the range but still up 16 tics to 153.17. Financial markets are skittish to say the least.
Pretty dull day with some yield variability coming across desks. Basis is doing its job of making farmers store rather than sell, and we all know once the bin door closes, it doesn't open for a dime. Market will have to pay the farmer, or farmer will have to pay the banker. Price and the calendar will determine the order. Corn up 1/2 to 349. Beans gain 2 1/4 to 986 1/2. Wheat 2 3/4 higher to 432 3/4. Rice settles 1193, minus 1 1/2. Solid export sales across the board. Dow opened and fell 150 before recovering to unchanged, 23,114. Bonds settle near middle of the range but still up 16 tics to 153.17. Financial markets are skittish to say the least.
10/18
Grains had just a grinding harvest day. Corn off 1 1/2 to 348 1/2. Wheat settles 430, off 4 3/4 even with slow planting and low acreage stories. Beans slip 1/2 to 984 1/4. Rice got pushed down 18 1/2 to 1194 1/2. Standard last two weeks before deliveries liquidation, followed up with what I believe to be a concentrated seller with incentive to keep the market down. Ask yourself who would want the market down going into November, and why? Small change that its big spec using tainted global numbers, but I'm skeptical. My money says its very close to home. And related to the calendar. Dow puts in a no resistance rally to 21,114, up 114 while bonds drop a full point to 153.01.
Grains had just a grinding harvest day. Corn off 1 1/2 to 348 1/2. Wheat settles 430, off 4 3/4 even with slow planting and low acreage stories. Beans slip 1/2 to 984 1/4. Rice got pushed down 18 1/2 to 1194 1/2. Standard last two weeks before deliveries liquidation, followed up with what I believe to be a concentrated seller with incentive to keep the market down. Ask yourself who would want the market down going into November, and why? Small change that its big spec using tainted global numbers, but I'm skeptical. My money says its very close to home. And related to the calendar. Dow puts in a no resistance rally to 21,114, up 114 while bonds drop a full point to 153.01.
10/17
Harvest pressure continues in the grains, with beans softest, off 6 1/4 to 984 3/4. Corn slips 1/2 to 350 and wheat off 1 3/4 to 434 3/4. Rice up a penny to 1213. No real stories and the bulls looking to be fed soon. Seasonal strength needs a boost. SA weather on the menu? Dow marches on, up 53 to 22,951 and bonds gain 11 to 154.02.
Harvest pressure continues in the grains, with beans softest, off 6 1/4 to 984 3/4. Corn slips 1/2 to 350 and wheat off 1 3/4 to 434 3/4. Rice up a penny to 1213. No real stories and the bulls looking to be fed soon. Seasonal strength needs a boost. SA weather on the menu? Dow marches on, up 53 to 22,951 and bonds gain 11 to 154.02.
10/16
Grains mostly give back Fridays continuation rally. Corn off 2 1/4 to 350 1/2. Wheat down 3 to 436 1/2. Beans drop 9 1/4 to 991. Rice finds buying at 1212, down 6 1/2. Dow up another 68 to 22,898 and bonds off 9 tics to 153.23.
Grains mostly give back Fridays continuation rally. Corn off 2 1/4 to 350 1/2. Wheat down 3 to 436 1/2. Beans drop 9 1/4 to 991. Rice finds buying at 1212, down 6 1/2. Dow up another 68 to 22,898 and bonds off 9 tics to 153.23.
10/13
Wheat just ran out of sellers and popped 9 to 439 1/2. Corn up 3 3/4 to 352 3/4 with decent exports and weather threats for the weekend. Same story with the beans, up 8 1/4 to 1000 1/4. Rice eased back 6 1/3 cents to 1218 1/2, but holding the last two days strength quite well. Dow up another 32 to end the week at 22,830, and bonds up 29 to 154.
Wheat just ran out of sellers and popped 9 to 439 1/2. Corn up 3 3/4 to 352 3/4 with decent exports and weather threats for the weekend. Same story with the beans, up 8 1/4 to 1000 1/4. Rice eased back 6 1/3 cents to 1218 1/2, but holding the last two days strength quite well. Dow up another 32 to end the week at 22,830, and bonds up 29 to 154.
10/12
USDA report was neutral for corn, but up 3 cents to 349. Wheat was negative, especially on the global front, and off 3/4 to 430 1/2. Surprising bean numbers and seasonal bids, along with weather stories out of SA lead to an explosive bean market, up 26 3/4 to 992. Rice numbers keep getting more friendly, as expected, and up 21 1/2 to 1225. Dow leaked 18 to 22,798 and bonds up 17 tics to 153.03. Sorry the report is out so late, my mother passed peacefully in her sleep, so things are quite hectic. I will try to get a private commentary for forward trading decisions given the new data sometime today. Some adjustments seem prudent.
USDA report was neutral for corn, but up 3 cents to 349. Wheat was negative, especially on the global front, and off 3/4 to 430 1/2. Surprising bean numbers and seasonal bids, along with weather stories out of SA lead to an explosive bean market, up 26 3/4 to 992. Rice numbers keep getting more friendly, as expected, and up 21 1/2 to 1225. Dow leaked 18 to 22,798 and bonds up 17 tics to 153.03. Sorry the report is out so late, my mother passed peacefully in her sleep, so things are quite hectic. I will try to get a private commentary for forward trading decisions given the new data sometime today. Some adjustments seem prudent.
10/10
Another quiet corn day, minus 1/4 to 349 1/4. Wheat off 3/4 to 435 1/4. Beans off 3/4 as well, after a strong early market, lead by meal, but fading to 966. Rice lost its seller, and it didn't take a giant bid to put us up 18 to 1202. Nov options are clearly in play, as well as the Thursday report. Don't hear of anything stellar in any of the grains for exports, and there is room all over the spread sheet for the USDA to tweak numbers Thursday. That is, in a nut shell, what has trade on its heals. Dow up another 73 to 22,784 and bonds gain 13 tics to 152.16. Crude back over $50 as well.
Another quiet corn day, minus 1/4 to 349 1/4. Wheat off 3/4 to 435 1/4. Beans off 3/4 as well, after a strong early market, lead by meal, but fading to 966. Rice lost its seller, and it didn't take a giant bid to put us up 18 to 1202. Nov options are clearly in play, as well as the Thursday report. Don't hear of anything stellar in any of the grains for exports, and there is room all over the spread sheet for the USDA to tweak numbers Thursday. That is, in a nut shell, what has trade on its heals. Dow up another 73 to 22,784 and bonds gain 13 tics to 152.16. Crude back over $50 as well.
10/09
Corn dead in the water, down 1/2 to 349 1/2. Wheat had some weak long liquidation to 436, off 7 1/2. Same story with the beans, and an added softness in meal leading to a 5 1/2 cent loss, 966 3/4. Rice grinded lower to 1184, minus 4 1/2. Dow up 17 to 22,217 and bonds plus 6 to 152.03. Back to the field.
Corn dead in the water, down 1/2 to 349 1/2. Wheat had some weak long liquidation to 436, off 7 1/2. Same story with the beans, and an added softness in meal leading to a 5 1/2 cent loss, 966 3/4. Rice grinded lower to 1184, minus 4 1/2. Dow up 17 to 22,217 and bonds plus 6 to 152.03. Back to the field.
10/06
Pretty uneventful Friday, with corn up 1/2 to 350 in a very tight weekly range. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 443 1/2 after another peek down didn't find anything. Beans up 4 cents on top of Thursdays rally, and looking at the top side of 970, settling 972 1/4. Meal put on quite a show this week, but no real strength in the carry spreads, and that has my "are we being herded" radar up. Lots of talk that just because we have a big crop doesn't mean we have to break. Remember last year. I want to see what comes out of china early next week, but I still have a gut feeling that the USDA isn't going to play nice on Thursday. The bigger question is how the markets react to the news. Rice slips 3 to 1188 1/2, but commitments of traders is giving us another glimpse into the ownership transfer from weak longs to commercial longs. That should be fully sorted out by November deliveries. Dow off 46, 22,694, and some Elliot wave indications that we are peaking on this long legged rally out there. Bonds off 11 to 151.29 and this whole reset is based on the fed moving again this year. They will if the stock market stays strong, but a strong selloff would put the FED back on its heals. Have to remember that President Trump likes a strong stock market, and he will be changing up the chairs at the FED.
Pretty uneventful Friday, with corn up 1/2 to 350 in a very tight weekly range. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 443 1/2 after another peek down didn't find anything. Beans up 4 cents on top of Thursdays rally, and looking at the top side of 970, settling 972 1/4. Meal put on quite a show this week, but no real strength in the carry spreads, and that has my "are we being herded" radar up. Lots of talk that just because we have a big crop doesn't mean we have to break. Remember last year. I want to see what comes out of china early next week, but I still have a gut feeling that the USDA isn't going to play nice on Thursday. The bigger question is how the markets react to the news. Rice slips 3 to 1188 1/2, but commitments of traders is giving us another glimpse into the ownership transfer from weak longs to commercial longs. That should be fully sorted out by November deliveries. Dow off 46, 22,694, and some Elliot wave indications that we are peaking on this long legged rally out there. Bonds off 11 to 151.29 and this whole reset is based on the fed moving again this year. They will if the stock market stays strong, but a strong selloff would put the FED back on its heals. Have to remember that President Trump likes a strong stock market, and he will be changing up the chairs at the FED.
10/05
Corn up another 1 1/4 to 349 1/2. Beans and meal had great exports and a solid day. 968 1/4, plus a dime. Rain will slow down the Midwest harvest a few days as well. With the garbage basis numbers I have heard, just as well. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 440 3/4 and rejected the lows . Rice takes some flat price selling on a soft export number, giving up 11 1/2 to 1191 1/2. Dow on another record close, 22740, gain of 133, and bonds slip 10 tics to 152.08.
Corn up another 1 1/4 to 349 1/2. Beans and meal had great exports and a solid day. 968 1/4, plus a dime. Rain will slow down the Midwest harvest a few days as well. With the garbage basis numbers I have heard, just as well. Wheat off 1 1/4 to 440 3/4 and rejected the lows . Rice takes some flat price selling on a soft export number, giving up 11 1/2 to 1191 1/2. Dow on another record close, 22740, gain of 133, and bonds slip 10 tics to 152.08.
10/04
Corn tries the lows but bounces back to 348 1/4, minus 1 1/2 in another relatively dull day. Wheat soft and settling down 6 to 442. Beans up 3 and really felt pretty good most of the day. 958 1/4. Yields are good but not great, and the low moisture story is a wide ranging event. Rains the next few days to slow things down and china back at the table offsetting harvest volume weekend worries. Rice pops early on very low volume, but settles 1 1/2 higher at 1203. Export sales tomorrow bot I don't see anything out there that should move the needle as of now. Will update internally if there is any surprises. Dow off 1 to 22,607 and bonds off 2 tics to 152.18. All the grains act like the buyer is praying that the farmer folds.
Corn tries the lows but bounces back to 348 1/4, minus 1 1/2 in another relatively dull day. Wheat soft and settling down 6 to 442. Beans up 3 and really felt pretty good most of the day. 958 1/4. Yields are good but not great, and the low moisture story is a wide ranging event. Rains the next few days to slow things down and china back at the table offsetting harvest volume weekend worries. Rice pops early on very low volume, but settles 1 1/2 higher at 1203. Export sales tomorrow bot I don't see anything out there that should move the needle as of now. Will update internally if there is any surprises. Dow off 1 to 22,607 and bonds off 2 tics to 152.18. All the grains act like the buyer is praying that the farmer folds.
10/03
Dull, listless, harvest day. Selling coming in as grain rolls across the scales allowing the commercials to push us down with out much effort, but with little conviction as well. Looks like barge freight may have set its top for the year, and expected rain should help in movement of newly harvested stocks. Corn off 2 to 349 1/2. Beans lose 2 as well to 955 1/4. Wheat recovers yesterdays loss to close 448, plus 3 1/4. Rice a dull 1201 1/2. Dow up another 101 to 22,608 and bonds leak 2 tics to 152.20. Looks like the first reports of china potentially having corn issues in the not to distant future are making it out of the USDA. SA is delayed in planting and there will be fewer acres. This could be a long week for the bulls, but I would expect most of the harvest easy selling to be done by midweek next week. Not sure of the price, but comfortable with the time.
Dull, listless, harvest day. Selling coming in as grain rolls across the scales allowing the commercials to push us down with out much effort, but with little conviction as well. Looks like barge freight may have set its top for the year, and expected rain should help in movement of newly harvested stocks. Corn off 2 to 349 1/2. Beans lose 2 as well to 955 1/4. Wheat recovers yesterdays loss to close 448, plus 3 1/4. Rice a dull 1201 1/2. Dow up another 101 to 22,608 and bonds leak 2 tics to 152.20. Looks like the first reports of china potentially having corn issues in the not to distant future are making it out of the USDA. SA is delayed in planting and there will be fewer acres. This could be a long week for the bulls, but I would expect most of the harvest easy selling to be done by midweek next week. Not sure of the price, but comfortable with the time.
10/02
Weekend harvest needs a home, and that home is getting cheaper. Corn off 3 3/4 to 351 1/2. Beans lose 11 to 957 1/4. Wheat down 3 1/2 to 444 3/4. Should have the spill over selling done by 10 tomorrow, and then we will see where the end users want to play. River levels creating barge issues that are exaggerating an already painful basis in corn and beans. Rice up another 2 1/2 to 1202 as cash selling just isn't materializing after the futures selloff. Dow up 161 to a new record, 22,507 and bonds off 4 to 152.22. Crude might be putting in a top. Prayers go out to the Vegas victims.
Weekend harvest needs a home, and that home is getting cheaper. Corn off 3 3/4 to 351 1/2. Beans lose 11 to 957 1/4. Wheat down 3 1/2 to 444 3/4. Should have the spill over selling done by 10 tomorrow, and then we will see where the end users want to play. River levels creating barge issues that are exaggerating an already painful basis in corn and beans. Rice up another 2 1/2 to 1202 as cash selling just isn't materializing after the futures selloff. Dow up 161 to a new record, 22,507 and bonds off 4 to 152.22. Crude might be putting in a top. Prayers go out to the Vegas victims.
9/29
Trade reactions to report ran as expected. Nothing about any of the report that was earth shattering, but friendly corn number leaves us settling 355 1/4, plus 2 3/4. Beans had some interesting subtleties in the buried numbers, up 8 3/4 to 968 1/4. Wheat not so tight on supplies and off 6 3/4 to 448 1/4. Rice harvest far along now and plus 2 1/2 to 1199 1/2. Dow up 26 to 22,346 and bonds a dull 152.26, adding 1 tic.
Trade reactions to report ran as expected. Nothing about any of the report that was earth shattering, but friendly corn number leaves us settling 355 1/4, plus 2 3/4. Beans had some interesting subtleties in the buried numbers, up 8 3/4 to 968 1/4. Wheat not so tight on supplies and off 6 3/4 to 448 1/4. Rice harvest far along now and plus 2 1/2 to 1199 1/2. Dow up 26 to 22,346 and bonds a dull 152.26, adding 1 tic.
Weaker day in the grains with beans off 6 to 959 1/2 and wheat giving back 6 1/2 to 455. Corn off 1 1/2 to 352 1/2. I don't have much of an opinion on what the government will do tomorrow, so the sidelines are looking good. Barge freight is stiff, so basis has to pay the price. Those who never locked anything are really feeling the pain. Exports in beans were solid and we are catching up with last year in china sales much faster than many expected. Talk is that the farmer is selling beans to meet cash needs and saving corn to the bin. I will say again that when the bin doors do close, beans especially will be hard to get, opening the door for a nice Christmas rally. Same goes for rice. Rice rejecting the 3 am bear raid, and a fair amount of grumbling about something like that even being allowed to happen. I have always argued that small markets have no business having a night session, and things like we just experienced magnify why. 1197, plus7 to end the day. India prices are rallying internally. There will be water stories in the Asian hemisphere early and often next year, from rain to dams affecting production. Dow up 22 to 22,320 and bonds test lows but rally to close down only 5 tics, 152.25.
9/27
Beans stabilize and close up 2 cents, 965 1/2. Hard to get much of a rally in front of another weekend of harvest around the corner and a stocks number on Friday. Corn closes 354, up 1 3/4. Wheat strong and closing 7 3/4 higher to 461 1/2. Rice off another 7 to 1190 but well off the lows and a solid gain in open interest, reflecting our computer short back in play. Give him some rope and he hangs himself. Dow up 39 to 22,298 and bonds drop a point and 27 to 152.30. Fed might have made a decision. Us commoners will find out later. Bank stocks act like they found out today.
Beans stabilize and close up 2 cents, 965 1/2. Hard to get much of a rally in front of another weekend of harvest around the corner and a stocks number on Friday. Corn closes 354, up 1 3/4. Wheat strong and closing 7 3/4 higher to 461 1/2. Rice off another 7 to 1190 but well off the lows and a solid gain in open interest, reflecting our computer short back in play. Give him some rope and he hangs himself. Dow up 39 to 22,298 and bonds drop a point and 27 to 152.30. Fed might have made a decision. Us commoners will find out later. Bank stocks act like they found out today.
9/26
Beans down another 7 3/4 to 963 1/2. Lots of talk that the next report will be negative based on early yield reports. Wheat couldn't hold a rally and closed off 1/4 at 453 3/4. Corn down 1 1/2 to 352 1/4 as well. Rice slips another nickel, but so much just under the surface going on, you better be better than the captain of the titanic if your going to be in these waters. Bonds off 4 tics, 154.25 and dow off 17 to 22,259.
Beans down another 7 3/4 to 963 1/2. Lots of talk that the next report will be negative based on early yield reports. Wheat couldn't hold a rally and closed off 1/4 at 453 3/4. Corn down 1 1/2 to 352 1/4 as well. Rice slips another nickel, but so much just under the surface going on, you better be better than the captain of the titanic if your going to be in these waters. Bonds off 4 tics, 154.25 and dow off 17 to 22,259.
9/25
Beans gave back Fridays rally, losing 13 to 971 1/4. Decent early harvest numbers, although numerous reports of low moisture. I believe that will be the footnote of 2017 beans. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 454 and Minn. was strong as well. Listless corn up 1/4 to 353 3/4. Rice down limit at 3 in the morning, when no one is guarding the henhouse. Goes to show that longer hours opens the door to less price discovery, not more, especially in smaller contracts. 1202 and down 34 1/2 for a rice close. Dow rebounds but still off 23 to 22,276 and bonds up 26 tics to 154.29. Todays bean action was not at all unexpected, but tomorrows action bears watching. I don't want to see a weak settle tomorrow, and I'd like to see a rebound in the meal as well. Rice computer seller is back on, sensing spec long weakness, so let them run the weak longs out before you wade in, or at the very least, as a buyer, make sure you aren't a weak long. Would not be surprised to see last nights low tested.
Beans gave back Fridays rally, losing 13 to 971 1/4. Decent early harvest numbers, although numerous reports of low moisture. I believe that will be the footnote of 2017 beans. Wheat gained 4 1/2 to 454 and Minn. was strong as well. Listless corn up 1/4 to 353 3/4. Rice down limit at 3 in the morning, when no one is guarding the henhouse. Goes to show that longer hours opens the door to less price discovery, not more, especially in smaller contracts. 1202 and down 34 1/2 for a rice close. Dow rebounds but still off 23 to 22,276 and bonds up 26 tics to 154.29. Todays bean action was not at all unexpected, but tomorrows action bears watching. I don't want to see a weak settle tomorrow, and I'd like to see a rebound in the meal as well. Rice computer seller is back on, sensing spec long weakness, so let them run the weak longs out before you wade in, or at the very least, as a buyer, make sure you aren't a weak long. Would not be surprised to see last nights low tested.
9/22
Order flow market strength caught most off guard. We do have some weather concerns for SA, but this trade is a stark reminder that the computers like to run in whichever side is off balance, regardless of what is going on in the background. Beans up 13 1/2 to 984 1/4 and meal was strong as well. Corn up 3 1/4 to 353 1/2. Wheat got a little tired and settled back 3 to 449 1/2. Rice has a large imbalance to the spec long and harvest selling pushed us over the edge today, 34 1/2 lower to 1236 1/2. I am sure this price point will attract new exports, and I'm not sure we need to be attracting that much business right now. Don't know how far down the spec liquidation will take us, but I would keep a close eye on the chart for a base to buy into. Dow slipped 34 to 22,299 and bonds up 7 to 154.03.
Order flow market strength caught most off guard. We do have some weather concerns for SA, but this trade is a stark reminder that the computers like to run in whichever side is off balance, regardless of what is going on in the background. Beans up 13 1/2 to 984 1/4 and meal was strong as well. Corn up 3 1/4 to 353 1/2. Wheat got a little tired and settled back 3 to 449 1/2. Rice has a large imbalance to the spec long and harvest selling pushed us over the edge today, 34 1/2 lower to 1236 1/2. I am sure this price point will attract new exports, and I'm not sure we need to be attracting that much business right now. Don't know how far down the spec liquidation will take us, but I would keep a close eye on the chart for a base to buy into. Dow slipped 34 to 22,299 and bonds up 7 to 154.03.
9/21
Beans up only 3/4, to 970 3/4., but meal has some strength. I'd like to see the receipts get cancelled so maybe we could start to put some premium back into the meal market. Afraid that will have to wait for harvest, but for bean trade, its nice to see that maybe some of this summers meal glut is getting used up. Wheat up another 2 3/4 on continued talk that we are a more competitive global source moving forward, and most owners are comfortable storing for the time being. The ugly step sister, corn up 1/4 to 350 1/4. After harvest is all done and the last kernel is put to storage, I think Cinderella corn will be allowed to come out and shine at the ball, but in the meantime, expect every rally in corn to be met with farmer selling. Rice down 9 1/2 on solid harvest pressure and some wanting more new export sales. My current calculator and info is quite comfortable with where we are and I fear what an aggressive pace would do to us in the spring. Personally, Id like to get two years of healthy returns in rice. Financials starting to show some exhaustion, dow off 43 to 22,333 and bonds up 4 tics, 153.28.
Beans up only 3/4, to 970 3/4., but meal has some strength. I'd like to see the receipts get cancelled so maybe we could start to put some premium back into the meal market. Afraid that will have to wait for harvest, but for bean trade, its nice to see that maybe some of this summers meal glut is getting used up. Wheat up another 2 3/4 on continued talk that we are a more competitive global source moving forward, and most owners are comfortable storing for the time being. The ugly step sister, corn up 1/4 to 350 1/4. After harvest is all done and the last kernel is put to storage, I think Cinderella corn will be allowed to come out and shine at the ball, but in the meantime, expect every rally in corn to be met with farmer selling. Rice down 9 1/2 on solid harvest pressure and some wanting more new export sales. My current calculator and info is quite comfortable with where we are and I fear what an aggressive pace would do to us in the spring. Personally, Id like to get two years of healthy returns in rice. Financials starting to show some exhaustion, dow off 43 to 22,333 and bonds up 4 tics, 153.28.
9/20
Beans follow yesterdays bounce with another 4 1/2 cent rally to 970. Wheat up 6 3/4 to 449 3/4 on talk that we will be capturing more of Australia's sales as they are short again. Corn up 1 3/4 to 350 , Maintaining its positon as the weakest grain on rallies, which I expect to be a theme until everything is in the bin. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1280 1/2 with solid harvest numbers being well absorbed so far. Dow up another 40 to 22,376 and bonds off another 12 to 153.24. Financials have been a broken clock for an awfully long period of time. Might be a good day to reevaluate/reposition for the casino guys out there wondering about a weekend that includes the 23rd In it. Think missile man.
Beans follow yesterdays bounce with another 4 1/2 cent rally to 970. Wheat up 6 3/4 to 449 3/4 on talk that we will be capturing more of Australia's sales as they are short again. Corn up 1 3/4 to 350 , Maintaining its positon as the weakest grain on rallies, which I expect to be a theme until everything is in the bin. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1280 1/2 with solid harvest numbers being well absorbed so far. Dow up another 40 to 22,376 and bonds off another 12 to 153.24. Financials have been a broken clock for an awfully long period of time. Might be a good day to reevaluate/reposition for the casino guys out there wondering about a weekend that includes the 23rd In it. Think missile man.
9/19
Beans beat down again today, but get a solid rally to 2 1/2 off, 965 1/2. Wheat back to only 1/2 cent lower, 443. Corn off all day and settling 3 1/4 lower, 348 1/4. Someone wanted to sell at least 250 rice naked pushing the market down 10 1/2 to 1278. I thought that was a decent showing, given where we are in harvest. Dow up another 37 to 22,336 and bonds off 7 to 154.04.
Beans beat down again today, but get a solid rally to 2 1/2 off, 965 1/2. Wheat back to only 1/2 cent lower, 443. Corn off all day and settling 3 1/4 lower, 348 1/4. Someone wanted to sell at least 250 rice naked pushing the market down 10 1/2 to 1278. I thought that was a decent showing, given where we are in harvest. Dow up another 37 to 22,336 and bonds off 7 to 154.04.
9/18
Drove down south of Bloomington, Il today to look at some of the early harvest, and didn't find too much done. Corn yields coming in thru the day are quite variable, as expected, but have grown to include some impressive yield numbers. A fair amount higher than I have expected to be honest. Spec open interest is already short and there are enough global undercurrents to provide a damper on big breaks, but I'm seeing less and less reason to want to carry inventory, especially if its not in your own storage. Corn settles back to the report number, 351 1/2, minus 3 1/4. Wheat gives back Fridays rally, 443 1/2, minus 5 1/2. Beans off a penny but near the lows of the day at 967 3/4. Meal did hang in and the little beans I'm aware of in Illinois were off in yield, as well as 11% moisture. Looks like beans are going to dry down fast this year so id be diligent about getting them out in a timely fashion. Dow continues its climb to 22,299, up another 80 while the bonds slip 22 tics to 154.11.
Drove down south of Bloomington, Il today to look at some of the early harvest, and didn't find too much done. Corn yields coming in thru the day are quite variable, as expected, but have grown to include some impressive yield numbers. A fair amount higher than I have expected to be honest. Spec open interest is already short and there are enough global undercurrents to provide a damper on big breaks, but I'm seeing less and less reason to want to carry inventory, especially if its not in your own storage. Corn settles back to the report number, 351 1/2, minus 3 1/4. Wheat gives back Fridays rally, 443 1/2, minus 5 1/2. Beans off a penny but near the lows of the day at 967 3/4. Meal did hang in and the little beans I'm aware of in Illinois were off in yield, as well as 11% moisture. Looks like beans are going to dry down fast this year so id be diligent about getting them out in a timely fashion. Dow continues its climb to 22,299, up another 80 while the bonds slip 22 tics to 154.11.
9/15
Friday action does prepare for the weekend harvest, with the early beans and mid-state corn expected to roll in over the weekend. Beans slip 7 1/4 to 968 3/4, basically pre-report prices. Corn actually gained 1/2 to 354 3/4. Early crops will probably give some decent numbers to digest on Monday morning. Wheat gains 6 to 449. Rice off 1/2 cent to 1280 1/2 knowing that a lot of rice will be harvested this weekend, but I believe that most of it has a home as long as cash stays 550 or lower. Thinking no one wants to be the first to pay $6, but betting it will trade there in volume. Dow up another 47 to 22,219 and bonds gain two tics to 155.01.
Friday action does prepare for the weekend harvest, with the early beans and mid-state corn expected to roll in over the weekend. Beans slip 7 1/4 to 968 3/4, basically pre-report prices. Corn actually gained 1/2 to 354 3/4. Early crops will probably give some decent numbers to digest on Monday morning. Wheat gains 6 to 449. Rice off 1/2 cent to 1280 1/2 knowing that a lot of rice will be harvested this weekend, but I believe that most of it has a home as long as cash stays 550 or lower. Thinking no one wants to be the first to pay $6, but betting it will trade there in volume. Dow up another 47 to 22,219 and bonds gain two tics to 155.01.
9/14
Corn up 2 3/4 to 354 1/4. Wheat off 1/4 to 443. Beans lit it up for 15 1/2 to 976. Rice off a dime to 1281. Exports set the tone today, with good corn and soft wheat. Great Beans and soft rice. Only thing that went counter to exports was a soft meal number but a strong futures market. If you know me at all, you know how important meal is to the bean trade, so I was very happy with meal action today. That said, tomorrow is Friday and a harvest weekend will ensue. Hoping for more short covering, as well as some of the technical funds buying tomorrow. There is room on the upside if the funds want out of their shorts, but I wouldn't expect a stupid rally from here. Hearing some near term strength in some bean basis, so don't get too greedy if a strong cash bid is offered. A weather change to freeze/frost in the longer term forecasts would make me reevaluate that. Dow up another 60, 22,172 and bonds up 5 to 154.31.
Corn up 2 3/4 to 354 1/4. Wheat off 1/4 to 443. Beans lit it up for 15 1/2 to 976. Rice off a dime to 1281. Exports set the tone today, with good corn and soft wheat. Great Beans and soft rice. Only thing that went counter to exports was a soft meal number but a strong futures market. If you know me at all, you know how important meal is to the bean trade, so I was very happy with meal action today. That said, tomorrow is Friday and a harvest weekend will ensue. Hoping for more short covering, as well as some of the technical funds buying tomorrow. There is room on the upside if the funds want out of their shorts, but I wouldn't expect a stupid rally from here. Hearing some near term strength in some bean basis, so don't get too greedy if a strong cash bid is offered. A weather change to freeze/frost in the longer term forecasts would make me reevaluate that. Dow up another 60, 22,172 and bonds up 5 to 154.31.
9/13
Corn took a breather, unchanged, 351 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 443 1/4. Beans 10 higher to 960 1/2, erasing all of the report action. I do believe that the report has put a lower lid on all the grains rolling into harvest. Corn 365-70 and beans near $10 without weather or something geopolitical. Drove a couple hundred miles of Indiana today, and beans are spotty with some stellar looking and some that will scare a combine. Weed control has been difficult all over. I did note how much of the crop is quite late in maturity, and that is a common denominator in the beans from the Mason Dixon line and north. Rice gives up 4 to 1291 with new registrations and deliveries out of McGee which is surely new crop. Maybe 550 and 45 cents of basis? Not what I would do in a full carry market that is certainly going to be tight. Dow up another 22 to 22,112 and bonds off another 14 tics to 154.26. Thinking this dance is getting a little old, just trying to decide on which move to fade.
Corn took a breather, unchanged, 351 1/2. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 443 1/4. Beans 10 higher to 960 1/2, erasing all of the report action. I do believe that the report has put a lower lid on all the grains rolling into harvest. Corn 365-70 and beans near $10 without weather or something geopolitical. Drove a couple hundred miles of Indiana today, and beans are spotty with some stellar looking and some that will scare a combine. Weed control has been difficult all over. I did note how much of the crop is quite late in maturity, and that is a common denominator in the beans from the Mason Dixon line and north. Rice gives up 4 to 1291 with new registrations and deliveries out of McGee which is surely new crop. Maybe 550 and 45 cents of basis? Not what I would do in a full carry market that is certainly going to be tight. Dow up another 22 to 22,112 and bonds off another 14 tics to 154.26. Thinking this dance is getting a little old, just trying to decide on which move to fade.
9/12
WASDE yield increases in corn and beans lead to a strong break in the market, but in my opinion was rejected by a solid rebound close. Corn ends off 6 to 351 1/2 and beans lose 9 1/2 to 950 1/2. If the USDA numbers were perceived to be correct, I believe we would have set and settled on new lows. Wheat had a nothing report and closed 7 1/4 higher, 442. Rice numbers were quite bullish, resulting in a 29 1/2 cent rally to 1295, and that's in the throws of harvest. Impressive. Dow up another 73 to 22,090 and bonds slip 24 to 155.08. South Korea is upping the rhetoric with its northern neighbor. Will be interesting to see the response.
WASDE yield increases in corn and beans lead to a strong break in the market, but in my opinion was rejected by a solid rebound close. Corn ends off 6 to 351 1/2 and beans lose 9 1/2 to 950 1/2. If the USDA numbers were perceived to be correct, I believe we would have set and settled on new lows. Wheat had a nothing report and closed 7 1/4 higher, 442. Rice numbers were quite bullish, resulting in a 29 1/2 cent rally to 1295, and that's in the throws of harvest. Impressive. Dow up another 73 to 22,090 and bonds slip 24 to 155.08. South Korea is upping the rhetoric with its northern neighbor. Will be interesting to see the response.
9/11
Corn up 3/4 to 357 1/2. Wheat drops 3 to 434 3/4. Beans slip 2 to 960. Rice down 6 1/2, settling 1265 1/2. All eyes on tomorrows WASDE report at 11. I've heard both sides for every grain. I personally don't see the end numbers as high as last months report, and my lunch offer still stands, so far with no takers. Corn harvest moving north of St louis as I drove thru yesterday, but not aggressive. Persistent reports of field yield and maturity variability in the corn, and I mean big variability. Beans maturing and some reports ( two today) of beans appearing to be dying in the field. Beans exports moving well with decent inventory of what I believe to be a much larger than usual farmer selling during the year of new crop north of $10. Rice harvest moving well and reasonable yields in Arkansas so far. Seems like all the old crop is gone that doesn't need to be blended, so the mills wont compete at harvest, but they will have to come to the table sooner that usual. Don't get caught at harvest with any forced sales and this year should be a good one. Bonds off 1.09 and December dow up well over 200 to settle 22,017 on no new N. Korea news and a debit ceiling being kinked on down the road.
Corn up 3/4 to 357 1/2. Wheat drops 3 to 434 3/4. Beans slip 2 to 960. Rice down 6 1/2, settling 1265 1/2. All eyes on tomorrows WASDE report at 11. I've heard both sides for every grain. I personally don't see the end numbers as high as last months report, and my lunch offer still stands, so far with no takers. Corn harvest moving north of St louis as I drove thru yesterday, but not aggressive. Persistent reports of field yield and maturity variability in the corn, and I mean big variability. Beans maturing and some reports ( two today) of beans appearing to be dying in the field. Beans exports moving well with decent inventory of what I believe to be a much larger than usual farmer selling during the year of new crop north of $10. Rice harvest moving well and reasonable yields in Arkansas so far. Seems like all the old crop is gone that doesn't need to be blended, so the mills wont compete at harvest, but they will have to come to the table sooner that usual. Don't get caught at harvest with any forced sales and this year should be a good one. Bonds off 1.09 and December dow up well over 200 to settle 22,017 on no new N. Korea news and a debit ceiling being kinked on down the road.
9/8
An even up day, with corn up 1 1/2 to 356 3/4 and wheat up 1/2 to 437 3/4. Beans slip 6 3/4 to 962 but way to early to me for a washout to start. Rice up 3 to 1272 with ark harvest rolling but friendly to the market stories coming out of Texas and La. Dow plus 8, 21,812 and bonds off 3 to 157.09.
An even up day, with corn up 1 1/2 to 356 3/4 and wheat up 1/2 to 437 3/4. Beans slip 6 3/4 to 962 but way to early to me for a washout to start. Rice up 3 to 1272 with ark harvest rolling but friendly to the market stories coming out of Texas and La. Dow plus 8, 21,812 and bonds off 3 to 157.09.
9/7
Weak day with soft exports expected tomorrow and harvest pressure around the corner. Corn off 5 3/4 to 355 1/4. Wheat down 8 1/2 to 437 1/4. Beans lose 2 1/4 to 968 3/4. Rice back and forth but ends off 3, 1269. Dow off 8 to 21,804 and bonds snap back 1.01 to 157.12.
Weak day with soft exports expected tomorrow and harvest pressure around the corner. Corn off 5 3/4 to 355 1/4. Wheat down 8 1/2 to 437 1/4. Beans lose 2 1/4 to 968 3/4. Rice back and forth but ends off 3, 1269. Dow off 8 to 21,804 and bonds snap back 1.01 to 157.12.
9/6
Really a catch your breath day. Beans and corn up 2 1/2 each, 971 and 361. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 445 3/4. Rice slips 5 1/2 to 1272. Getting several inquiries about this rally. My take is that the market is telling the government where the mistakes are. The bean yield will be lower and the corn numbers could come at least closer to the last forecast. Lower, but closer. Dow up 48 to 21,812 and bonds off 21 to 156.11.
Really a catch your breath day. Beans and corn up 2 1/2 each, 971 and 361. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 445 3/4. Rice slips 5 1/2 to 1272. Getting several inquiries about this rally. My take is that the market is telling the government where the mistakes are. The bean yield will be lower and the corn numbers could come at least closer to the last forecast. Lower, but closer. Dow up 48 to 21,812 and bonds off 21 to 156.11.
9/5
Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. Bean shorts looking for a way out ran the market up 19 to 968 1/2. Wheat up 4 1/4 to 443 and corn up 3 1/4 to 358 1/2. Decent business being done and we got too cheap to source it all. Rice dropped 17 after a busy harvest weekend to 1277 1/2. Still a solid price compared to what was expected 4 months ago. North Korea fears helped push the dow 216 lower to 21,764 and, switching to December for the bond futures, 1.26 gain on a safety flight to 157. Looks more and more like the fed is losing their interest raising teeth. Maybe Dragbi is calling our shots too now. I guess we will know when the unwind starts, and that isn't going to happen with a 157 bond.
Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. Bean shorts looking for a way out ran the market up 19 to 968 1/2. Wheat up 4 1/4 to 443 and corn up 3 1/4 to 358 1/2. Decent business being done and we got too cheap to source it all. Rice dropped 17 after a busy harvest weekend to 1277 1/2. Still a solid price compared to what was expected 4 months ago. North Korea fears helped push the dow 216 lower to 21,764 and, switching to December for the bond futures, 1.26 gain on a safety flight to 157. Looks more and more like the fed is losing their interest raising teeth. Maybe Dragbi is calling our shots too now. I guess we will know when the unwind starts, and that isn't going to happen with a 157 bond.
9/1
Corn gives back 2 1/ 2 to 355 1/4. Steady stories of price causing delayed marketing decisions. For the layman, farmer says, at this price its going in the bin, which they have, and we will wait out the computers. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 438 3/4. Beans gain 4 1/4 to 949 1/2. Would like to see more meal participation. Rice up another dozen to 1294 1/2. Deliveries are pretty much in the books, and cash is holding solid. Dow up 30 to 21,980 and bonds lose 29 tics to 156.15.
Corn gives back 2 1/ 2 to 355 1/4. Steady stories of price causing delayed marketing decisions. For the layman, farmer says, at this price its going in the bin, which they have, and we will wait out the computers. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 438 3/4. Beans gain 4 1/4 to 949 1/2. Would like to see more meal participation. Rice up another dozen to 1294 1/2. Deliveries are pretty much in the books, and cash is holding solid. Dow up 30 to 21,980 and bonds lose 29 tics to 156.15.
8/31
Corn was in fact a blow out, rallying today and not looking back. up 12 1/4 to 357 3/4. Erased 6 grinding down days in a hurry. Wheat up 4 3/4 to 434 1/2. Beans gain 12 to 945 1/4. No deliveries goosed the spread early, but I was disappointed that meal didn't come along on todays rally. Rice delivered mostly current, with banksters stopping, a new 138 receipts out of harvest Ottwell . Switching to November futures, up 11 to 1282 1/2. Exports were nothing to write home about, but nothing much expected these next few weeks either. The domestic rice trade is more dependent then ever on Mo cutting a great crop, and Arkansas coming in with good yields as well. So far we are following that path, but its early. Dow up another 79 to 21,950 and bonds gain 15 tics to 157.12. Not going to call a high in the bonds for this move just yet, because I don't have the courage to be short over the holiday weekend, but we are being presented with another good opportunity to lock cheap long term rates.
Corn was in fact a blow out, rallying today and not looking back. up 12 1/4 to 357 3/4. Erased 6 grinding down days in a hurry. Wheat up 4 3/4 to 434 1/2. Beans gain 12 to 945 1/4. No deliveries goosed the spread early, but I was disappointed that meal didn't come along on todays rally. Rice delivered mostly current, with banksters stopping, a new 138 receipts out of harvest Ottwell . Switching to November futures, up 11 to 1282 1/2. Exports were nothing to write home about, but nothing much expected these next few weeks either. The domestic rice trade is more dependent then ever on Mo cutting a great crop, and Arkansas coming in with good yields as well. So far we are following that path, but its early. Dow up another 79 to 21,950 and bonds gain 15 tics to 157.12. Not going to call a high in the bonds for this move just yet, because I don't have the courage to be short over the holiday weekend, but we are being presented with another good opportunity to lock cheap long term rates.
8/30
Home from farm progress. Good show to attend if you can. Couldn't find one person who agreed with USDA numbers, but I didn't ask every person on the property. Was some level of disgust that with funds basically ruling Chicago, there was nothing that could be done until the government makes its next call. I'm not that extreme, but there is an obvious lack of diversity in the participants. Corn off another 3 1/4 to 345 1/2, a full dime below what I thought would be this wave's floor, and 20 below where it seemed reasonable to dip a toe in the water. Learned my lesson there, and we will be making adjustments moving forward. I would note the massive liquidation in open interest today on first notice as a potential blow out. Wheat unchanged, 429 3/4, and strange deliveries number between Chicago and KC. Beans off 4 to 933 1/4 with expected meal deliveries and nothing to show for a collapsing carry spread in sept/nov. If you have any of that spread still short, get out asap and put a nice trade in the bank. Rice up 11 to 1239 1/2 with lighter than expected deliveries and something funny in vs cash. We will give it a day to sort itself out, but it appears on tonight's numbers that someone is stuck short. Whether they deliver new or buy their way out, neither is bearish at these spread levels. News out of Texas and LA is not good, and getting worse. Arkansas mills will be competing against the export boys early and often this year. Dow off 3 to 21,871 and bonds off a tic to 156.29.
Home from farm progress. Good show to attend if you can. Couldn't find one person who agreed with USDA numbers, but I didn't ask every person on the property. Was some level of disgust that with funds basically ruling Chicago, there was nothing that could be done until the government makes its next call. I'm not that extreme, but there is an obvious lack of diversity in the participants. Corn off another 3 1/4 to 345 1/2, a full dime below what I thought would be this wave's floor, and 20 below where it seemed reasonable to dip a toe in the water. Learned my lesson there, and we will be making adjustments moving forward. I would note the massive liquidation in open interest today on first notice as a potential blow out. Wheat unchanged, 429 3/4, and strange deliveries number between Chicago and KC. Beans off 4 to 933 1/4 with expected meal deliveries and nothing to show for a collapsing carry spread in sept/nov. If you have any of that spread still short, get out asap and put a nice trade in the bank. Rice up 11 to 1239 1/2 with lighter than expected deliveries and something funny in vs cash. We will give it a day to sort itself out, but it appears on tonight's numbers that someone is stuck short. Whether they deliver new or buy their way out, neither is bearish at these spread levels. News out of Texas and LA is not good, and getting worse. Arkansas mills will be competing against the export boys early and often this year. Dow off 3 to 21,871 and bonds off a tic to 156.29.
8/29
Corn hits new lows, off 2 1/4 to 348 3/4. Wheat gains 1 3/4 to 429 3/4. Beans slip 4 to 937 1/4. Rice down 4 1/2 to 1228 1/2. Everyone is squaring up, or biting the bullet, in front of deliveries. More talk of an early freeze and its damage potential, but no one wants to be first in line. At the farm progress show, and its hard to find anyone that believes the wasde number, but most don't see a big upside either. Dow up 83 to 21,874 and bonds up 6 to 156.30. I did see some potentially interesting infrared field tech using an airplane, with a drone as a close up scout. Might bear more research.
Corn hits new lows, off 2 1/4 to 348 3/4. Wheat gains 1 3/4 to 429 3/4. Beans slip 4 to 937 1/4. Rice down 4 1/2 to 1228 1/2. Everyone is squaring up, or biting the bullet, in front of deliveries. More talk of an early freeze and its damage potential, but no one wants to be first in line. At the farm progress show, and its hard to find anyone that believes the wasde number, but most don't see a big upside either. Dow up 83 to 21,874 and bonds up 6 to 156.30. I did see some potentially interesting infrared field tech using an airplane, with a drone as a close up scout. Might bear more research.
8/26
Ports will slow and that should have a short term export effect. I'm told river bids softened some. Corn off another 2 1/2 to 351. That number wont get much bought so it will be interesting to see how many distressed sellers are out there. Wheat down 7 1/4 to 428. Beans lose 3 1/4 to 941 1/4. Rice shorts covered early but the sellers stayed at it, off 6 1/2 to 1233 and soft. Deliveries Friday and you should know my rule there. Dow off 18 to 21,791 and bonds up 7 to 156.24.
Ports will slow and that should have a short term export effect. I'm told river bids softened some. Corn off another 2 1/2 to 351. That number wont get much bought so it will be interesting to see how many distressed sellers are out there. Wheat down 7 1/4 to 428. Beans lose 3 1/4 to 941 1/4. Rice shorts covered early but the sellers stayed at it, off 6 1/2 to 1233 and soft. Deliveries Friday and you should know my rule there. Dow off 18 to 21,791 and bonds up 7 to 156.24.
8/25
Friday brought liquidation in front of next weeks deliveries, as well as a tentative trade with concerns about Harvey. New corn shorts bring dec down another 2 3/4 to 353 1/2. Wheat up 3/4 to 435 1/4. Beans slip 2 to 944 1/2. Rice shorts getting nervous with 20% of Texas crop thought to still be in the field, up 2 1/2 to 1239 1/2. Dow gains 23 to 21,809 and bonds up 14 to 156.17.
Friday brought liquidation in front of next weeks deliveries, as well as a tentative trade with concerns about Harvey. New corn shorts bring dec down another 2 3/4 to 353 1/2. Wheat up 3/4 to 435 1/4. Beans slip 2 to 944 1/2. Rice shorts getting nervous with 20% of Texas crop thought to still be in the field, up 2 1/2 to 1239 1/2. Dow gains 23 to 21,809 and bonds up 14 to 156.17.
8/24
Corn seemed to base, plus 1/2 to 356 1/4. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 434 1/2. Beans solid as well, 946 1/2, gaining 8 1/2. Rice concerns growing with the hurricane developing off Texas, but land fall is expected west and south of the rice growing areas. 1237 close, up 7 cents. Dow off 9 tics to 21,786 which really wasn't a bad showing, while bonds lose 13 to 156.03.
Corn seemed to base, plus 1/2 to 356 1/4. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 434 1/2. Beans solid as well, 946 1/2, gaining 8 1/2. Rice concerns growing with the hurricane developing off Texas, but land fall is expected west and south of the rice growing areas. 1237 close, up 7 cents. Dow off 9 tics to 21,786 which really wasn't a bad showing, while bonds lose 13 to 156.03.
8/23
Corn leaks another 4 1/4 to 355 3/4. Wheat up a penny to 430. Beans couldn't break, even with meal slipping, and gained 1/2 to end at 938. Rice up 9 1/2 to 1230 with some concerns about weather in the gulf.. There is still some rice left in the field in La and Texas. Dow gives back 91 to 21,795 and bonds rock recent new highs, 156.16, up 29. Jackson Hole just might have a leak.
Corn leaks another 4 1/4 to 355 3/4. Wheat up a penny to 430. Beans couldn't break, even with meal slipping, and gained 1/2 to end at 938. Rice up 9 1/2 to 1230 with some concerns about weather in the gulf.. There is still some rice left in the field in La and Texas. Dow gives back 91 to 21,795 and bonds rock recent new highs, 156.16, up 29. Jackson Hole just might have a leak.
8/22
Pro farmer tour is finding good and not so good crops, basically very variable, but not as bad as feared so far. Soy oil RINS just got a bid, on our government potentially upping tariffs. That's not the technical explanation, but close enough. We will be crushing for oil, which should put a stronger floor on beans at least thru harvest. Hearing another small weather risk of a mid sept cold spell. Corn and wheat have rising open interest in a falling market going into deliveries. That means that the spec is getting more short at lower prices. I have already tried to catch the falling knife, and my hands are bloody. I'm already shot fingers, so you would think I'd be more careful. Corn off 3 to 360. Wheat off another 8 to 429. Beans went higher on the day, plus 1 1/4 to 937 1/2. Rice up a couple to 1220 1/2 with 34 receipts cancelled. I had hoped more would have been used by now. Dow catches a bid and rocks 194 higher to 21,886. Bonds off 18 to 155.19. Will be interesting to see if Trump has any problems with protesters in Phoenix tonight.
Pro farmer tour is finding good and not so good crops, basically very variable, but not as bad as feared so far. Soy oil RINS just got a bid, on our government potentially upping tariffs. That's not the technical explanation, but close enough. We will be crushing for oil, which should put a stronger floor on beans at least thru harvest. Hearing another small weather risk of a mid sept cold spell. Corn and wheat have rising open interest in a falling market going into deliveries. That means that the spec is getting more short at lower prices. I have already tried to catch the falling knife, and my hands are bloody. I'm already shot fingers, so you would think I'd be more careful. Corn off 3 to 360. Wheat off another 8 to 429. Beans went higher on the day, plus 1 1/4 to 937 1/2. Rice up a couple to 1220 1/2 with 34 receipts cancelled. I had hoped more would have been used by now. Dow catches a bid and rocks 194 higher to 21,886. Bonds off 18 to 155.19. Will be interesting to see if Trump has any problems with protesters in Phoenix tonight.
8/21
Weekend provided mild weather and conditions were upped a little. Wheat lost 5 1/2 to 437. Corn off another 2 3/4 to 363. Bean spread leaked, and nov futures off a penny and a half to 936 1/4. Rice up 4 to 1218 1/2 with global markets stable to stronger. Nothing to get excited about harvest wise out of the south either. Dow up 13 to 21,692 and bonds up 10 to 156.05.
Weekend provided mild weather and conditions were upped a little. Wheat lost 5 1/2 to 437. Corn off another 2 3/4 to 363. Bean spread leaked, and nov futures off a penny and a half to 936 1/4. Rice up 4 to 1218 1/2 with global markets stable to stronger. Nothing to get excited about harvest wise out of the south either. Dow up 13 to 21,692 and bonds up 10 to 156.05.
8/18
Bears hit a bit of a wall today, with some talk of next weeks crop tour having a very different taste than the last WASDE report. Corn gained a penny and a half to 365 3/4 while wheat is up 1 3/4 to 442 1/2. Beans up 4 3/4 to 937 3/4 with solid oil. Current demand has the spreads strengthen, although I question any cancellations to fill export needs. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1214 1/2 with a growing small spec long. Dow slipped another 54 in front of the weekend to 21,679 while the bonds gained 5 tics in what appeared to me a tired bull, 155.27. If the dow does hold, expect a few points south on the bonds relatively quickly.
Bears hit a bit of a wall today, with some talk of next weeks crop tour having a very different taste than the last WASDE report. Corn gained a penny and a half to 365 3/4 while wheat is up 1 3/4 to 442 1/2. Beans up 4 3/4 to 937 3/4 with solid oil. Current demand has the spreads strengthen, although I question any cancellations to fill export needs. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1214 1/2 with a growing small spec long. Dow slipped another 54 in front of the weekend to 21,679 while the bonds gained 5 tics in what appeared to me a tired bull, 155.27. If the dow does hold, expect a few points south on the bonds relatively quickly.
8/17
New wheat shorts back again today, down 6 1/4 to 440 3/4 on another day of rising open interest. Same story with corn, off 2 1/4 to 364 1/4. This is sept spread roll time, and I would think we would have a declining open interest, especially in a break that allows the hedged farmer to ring the register. Beans gain7 3/4 to 933 on a solid export sales number and potentially just an exhausted seller. Lots of time to cause problems with an already troubled crop. Other than the delta and a few good pockets, bean yield still has a lot to prove. Ill stick with my offer on the over under for the last usda number. Rice getting more selling pressure, and the short term selling program appears to be running again, in front of expected heavy deliveries for this cycle. Down 6 1/2 to 1212. Dow does finally take a hit, as talked about 2 days ago, off 278 to 21,733. Maybe just broken clock syndrome. There is still a lot of air below this one, so don't try to catch the knife, especially late. Bonds up another 20 tics to 155.22. I'd watch the bonds for a solid break before I ever trust the dow. Go look at a chart of where this Trump rally started.
New wheat shorts back again today, down 6 1/4 to 440 3/4 on another day of rising open interest. Same story with corn, off 2 1/4 to 364 1/4. This is sept spread roll time, and I would think we would have a declining open interest, especially in a break that allows the hedged farmer to ring the register. Beans gain7 3/4 to 933 on a solid export sales number and potentially just an exhausted seller. Lots of time to cause problems with an already troubled crop. Other than the delta and a few good pockets, bean yield still has a lot to prove. Ill stick with my offer on the over under for the last usda number. Rice getting more selling pressure, and the short term selling program appears to be running again, in front of expected heavy deliveries for this cycle. Down 6 1/2 to 1212. Dow does finally take a hit, as talked about 2 days ago, off 278 to 21,733. Maybe just broken clock syndrome. There is still a lot of air below this one, so don't try to catch the knife, especially late. Bonds up another 20 tics to 155.22. I'd watch the bonds for a solid break before I ever trust the dow. Go look at a chart of where this Trump rally started.
8/16
Wheat lost another 9 to 447. Seemed to run out of selling across the grain floor and found some buyers later in the day. Corn off 2 to 366 1/2. Beans closed a penny higher on the day, 925 1/4. Rice spread roll gaining speed, and close trailing stops set off early taking out a resting 50 lot bid. Close was 6 lower, 1218 1/2. Dow held up and closed 34 higher with the usual late buying, 22,011. Bonds regained yesterdays losses, plus 21 to 155.02.
Wheat lost another 9 to 447. Seemed to run out of selling across the grain floor and found some buyers later in the day. Corn off 2 to 366 1/2. Beans closed a penny higher on the day, 925 1/4. Rice spread roll gaining speed, and close trailing stops set off early taking out a resting 50 lot bid. Close was 6 lower, 1218 1/2. Dow held up and closed 34 higher with the usual late buying, 22,011. Bonds regained yesterdays losses, plus 21 to 155.02.
8/15
Good weather forecasts and more grinding of the wasde numbers helped push the grains lower. Corn off 7 3/4 to 368 1/2 and wheat loses 11 3/4 to 456. Beans drop 14 to 924 1/4. Rice is off 9 1/2 to 1224 1/2. These numbers put every grain at levels that I would consider support. Not saying that they cant go lower, but the easy money on the short side has been made, even if not booked. Might be a good time to consider locking in profits on short hedges. Dow held up and closed 25 higher, 21,977. Bonds leaked 24 tics to 154.13. As usual, I don't trust the dow.
Good weather forecasts and more grinding of the wasde numbers helped push the grains lower. Corn off 7 3/4 to 368 1/2 and wheat loses 11 3/4 to 456. Beans drop 14 to 924 1/4. Rice is off 9 1/2 to 1224 1/2. These numbers put every grain at levels that I would consider support. Not saying that they cant go lower, but the easy money on the short side has been made, even if not booked. Might be a good time to consider locking in profits on short hedges. Dow held up and closed 25 higher, 21,977. Bonds leaked 24 tics to 154.13. As usual, I don't trust the dow.
8/14
Weaker early in corn and wheat, but closing a little better. Corn 1 1/2 higher to 376 1/4 while wheat gains 3/4 to 467 3/4. Beans off 6 3/4 to 938 1/4 on more good weather stories. Rice gives back 15 1/2 to 1234. Dow get a no problems weekend rally up 104 to 21,952 and bonds slip 10 tics to 155.05.
Weaker early in corn and wheat, but closing a little better. Corn 1 1/2 higher to 376 1/4 while wheat gains 3/4 to 467 3/4. Beans off 6 3/4 to 938 1/4 on more good weather stories. Rice gives back 15 1/2 to 1234. Dow get a no problems weekend rally up 104 to 21,952 and bonds slip 10 tics to 155.05.
8/11
Friday was a catch your breath day. One side has this report as a game changer with burdensome stocks and cheap prices for a long time. The other thinks the numbers are so far away from reality that in a few days time they could be totally discounted. As usual the truth will probably fall somewhere in the middle. As stated on Thursday, if the weather and everything else in farming cooperates from now to harvest, the crop has room to grow nearer to what the usda put out. The odds of everything cooperating from now thru Halloween is pretty slim. Corn regained 3 3/4 cents to 374 2/4. Wheat slipped 1 3/4 to 467. Beans gained 4 3/4 to 945. Rice got a chance to work Thursdays friendly numbers, up 24 1/2 to 1249 1/2. With a decent basis that 550, not a bad price for excess,or rice you have to pay someone else to store or roll. Dow gained 12 to 21848 and bonds up 4 tics to 155.15.
Friday was a catch your breath day. One side has this report as a game changer with burdensome stocks and cheap prices for a long time. The other thinks the numbers are so far away from reality that in a few days time they could be totally discounted. As usual the truth will probably fall somewhere in the middle. As stated on Thursday, if the weather and everything else in farming cooperates from now to harvest, the crop has room to grow nearer to what the usda put out. The odds of everything cooperating from now thru Halloween is pretty slim. Corn regained 3 3/4 cents to 374 2/4. Wheat slipped 1 3/4 to 467. Beans gained 4 3/4 to 945. Rice got a chance to work Thursdays friendly numbers, up 24 1/2 to 1249 1/2. With a decent basis that 550, not a bad price for excess,or rice you have to pay someone else to store or roll. Dow gained 12 to 21848 and bonds up 4 tics to 155.15.
8/10
Wasde report out of left field. It would have been very hard to write a more bearish, or contested set of numbers. If every aspect of the crop goes absolutely perfectly from here to the bin, we might, and I stress might, make those numbers. I will wager a fine cafeteria lunch at the massive USDA building in DC to any staffer who is willing to take the over/under on the bean yield they just published. And I will give you 1/2 bushel slippage for free and sleep well tonight. I think this will turn out like this year's early, and ultimately very high rice carry over number, shrinking from high to manageable numbers and potentially upsetting next years planting intentions. Rice was a friendly report, but lost in the shuffle. Corn loses 15 1/4 to 371 and pretty much at support. Wheat off 18 to 468 3/4 and beans marched down 33 to 940 1/4. Maybe 9.25 a second push down, but I don't see much from there for now. Rice off 6 to 1225. Dow off 182 to 21,836 tipping the hat to yesterdays flight to quality, with the bonds up another 20 to 155.11. I will repeat this again, our next real risk is an early or deep penetrating freeze. Crop will be a little late coming off and we have lots of northern bean acres.
Wasde report out of left field. It would have been very hard to write a more bearish, or contested set of numbers. If every aspect of the crop goes absolutely perfectly from here to the bin, we might, and I stress might, make those numbers. I will wager a fine cafeteria lunch at the massive USDA building in DC to any staffer who is willing to take the over/under on the bean yield they just published. And I will give you 1/2 bushel slippage for free and sleep well tonight. I think this will turn out like this year's early, and ultimately very high rice carry over number, shrinking from high to manageable numbers and potentially upsetting next years planting intentions. Rice was a friendly report, but lost in the shuffle. Corn loses 15 1/4 to 371 and pretty much at support. Wheat off 18 to 468 3/4 and beans marched down 33 to 940 1/4. Maybe 9.25 a second push down, but I don't see much from there for now. Rice off 6 to 1225. Dow off 182 to 21,836 tipping the hat to yesterdays flight to quality, with the bonds up another 20 to 155.11. I will repeat this again, our next real risk is an early or deep penetrating freeze. Crop will be a little late coming off and we have lots of northern bean acres.
8/9
Everyone evening up for tomorrows WASDE report. Global numbers could be friendly as well. Corn up 2 1/2 to 386 1/4. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 486 3/4. Beans chopped around and closed unchanged, 973 1/4. Rice up 16 1/2 to 1231. Plenty of cash moving around and demand is holding at these prices so far. Dow off 12 to 20,018 and bonds gain 32 tics ( that's a full point for you non bond guys) to 154.23 on what might well be a flight to quality. August 15 is a fireworks day in North Korea, and god knows Kim likes his boomers.
Everyone evening up for tomorrows WASDE report. Global numbers could be friendly as well. Corn up 2 1/2 to 386 1/4. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 486 3/4. Beans chopped around and closed unchanged, 973 1/4. Rice up 16 1/2 to 1231. Plenty of cash moving around and demand is holding at these prices so far. Dow off 12 to 20,018 and bonds gain 32 tics ( that's a full point for you non bond guys) to 154.23 on what might well be a flight to quality. August 15 is a fireworks day in North Korea, and god knows Kim likes his boomers.
8/7
Back from DC. Will be switching to Dec in corn and Wheat, and November for beans. Corn good for another 5 3/4 to 386 3/4. Wheat up 8 1/4 to 490 3/4. Beans gain 13 to 969 3/4. Hearing some beans were switched for china, which gives me another reason to be concerned about how much upside the beans have. Room for another 15 cents or so, but by then the easy money will be made. Everyone is prepping for what is assumed to be a bullish USDA take on the numbers, and the computer guys are just like farmers, much easier to talk into buying than selling. Thing is, if I can figure it out, so can these fancy artificial intelligence computers. Rice sponsor took a break and the market showed, off 28 1/2 to 1204 1/2. Dow gained 45 to 22062 and bonds up 7 tics to 154.10.
Back from DC. Will be switching to Dec in corn and Wheat, and November for beans. Corn good for another 5 3/4 to 386 3/4. Wheat up 8 1/4 to 490 3/4. Beans gain 13 to 969 3/4. Hearing some beans were switched for china, which gives me another reason to be concerned about how much upside the beans have. Room for another 15 cents or so, but by then the easy money will be made. Everyone is prepping for what is assumed to be a bullish USDA take on the numbers, and the computer guys are just like farmers, much easier to talk into buying than selling. Thing is, if I can figure it out, so can these fancy artificial intelligence computers. Rice sponsor took a break and the market showed, off 28 1/2 to 1204 1/2. Dow gained 45 to 22062 and bonds up 7 tics to 154.10.
8/3
Another private forcast with reasonable crop estimates, and no threatening weather puts more liquidation pressure on the grains. Corn off 1 1/2 to 363 1/2. Wheat down another3 cents to 457 3/4. Beans down early, try a bounce, but end off 16 3/4 to 954. Rice also drops 10 1/2 to 1238 1/2, even with Iraq finally in the export picture. There is some talk that China might restrict beans in a retaliatory measure and exports aren't growing. Dow up17 tics to 21,974 and bonds pop25 to 155. Something is getting drawn pretty tight in the financials again.
Another private forcast with reasonable crop estimates, and no threatening weather puts more liquidation pressure on the grains. Corn off 1 1/2 to 363 1/2. Wheat down another3 cents to 457 3/4. Beans down early, try a bounce, but end off 16 3/4 to 954. Rice also drops 10 1/2 to 1238 1/2, even with Iraq finally in the export picture. There is some talk that China might restrict beans in a retaliatory measure and exports aren't growing. Dow up17 tics to 21,974 and bonds pop25 to 155. Something is getting drawn pretty tight in the financials again.
8/2
A little bounce for the grains, Corn up 2 1/2 to365 and beans gain 6 1/2 to 970 3/4. Wheat actually slipped 1/2 to 460 3/4. Rice up another 12 to 1249 and traded 550 a bushel with a decent sept basis. I would repeat that's not a terrible price to move your excess rather than run the risk of playing the roll. Financials continue the up move, bonds plus 6 to 154.07 and the dow futures up 53 to 21,957.
A little bounce for the grains, Corn up 2 1/2 to365 and beans gain 6 1/2 to 970 3/4. Wheat actually slipped 1/2 to 460 3/4. Rice up another 12 to 1249 and traded 550 a bushel with a decent sept basis. I would repeat that's not a terrible price to move your excess rather than run the risk of playing the roll. Financials continue the up move, bonds plus 6 to 154.07 and the dow futures up 53 to 21,957.
8/01
Ugly washout in the grains today. Weather is cooler and more moisture coming into the picture. A private forecaster had a slightly friendly corn number and bearish bean number after the close. Corn closed 362 1/2, minus 8 1/4. Wheat down 13 1/4 to 461 1/4. Beans off 35 1/4 in the September to 964 1/4. Rice gains 11 to 1237 as the bull defends today, as well as stories about Asia not having the supplies that are in government reports. India bears watching. Dow up 62 to 21,904 and bonds up 1.02 to 154.01
Ugly washout in the grains today. Weather is cooler and more moisture coming into the picture. A private forecaster had a slightly friendly corn number and bearish bean number after the close. Corn closed 362 1/2, minus 8 1/4. Wheat down 13 1/4 to 461 1/4. Beans off 35 1/4 in the September to 964 1/4. Rice gains 11 to 1237 as the bull defends today, as well as stories about Asia not having the supplies that are in government reports. India bears watching. Dow up 62 to 21,904 and bonds up 1.02 to 154.01
7/31
Nothing new or bullish from the weekend, so path of least resistance is down. Corn off 3 1/2 to 370 3/4 and wheat off 6 1/2 to 474 1/2. Beans slip 6 1/4 to 994 1/2. Rice bull backs up and rice is off 15 1/2 to 1226. Dow up 67 to 21,842 and bonds drop 7 to 152.31. Specs are still long a healthy amount, and I'm not sure the farmer has done enough hedging.
Nothing new or bullish from the weekend, so path of least resistance is down. Corn off 3 1/2 to 370 3/4 and wheat off 6 1/2 to 474 1/2. Beans slip 6 1/4 to 994 1/2. Rice bull backs up and rice is off 15 1/2 to 1226. Dow up 67 to 21,842 and bonds drop 7 to 152.31. Specs are still long a healthy amount, and I'm not sure the farmer has done enough hedging.
7/28
Friday just coasted. Corn tried to rally, but settled unchanged, 374 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 481. Beans had a little more umph, plus 6 to 100 3/4. Rice up a dime to 1241 1/2. Commitments has our commercials willing to add to shorts as we climb. Dow up 32 to 21,775 and the bond recover yesterdays loss, 19 higher to 153.06. No rain for the next week or so, so we will see what the bulls will try early if there are no changes between now and Sunday night.
Friday just coasted. Corn tried to rally, but settled unchanged, 374 1/4. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 481. Beans had a little more umph, plus 6 to 100 3/4. Rice up a dime to 1241 1/2. Commitments has our commercials willing to add to shorts as we climb. Dow up 32 to 21,775 and the bond recover yesterdays loss, 19 higher to 153.06. No rain for the next week or so, so we will see what the bulls will try early if there are no changes between now and Sunday night.
7/27
Iowa still at the forefront of the grain bull story. Corn up 1 1/2 to 374 1/4 and wheat up a couple as well, 479 3/4. Beans up 6 to 994 3/4 with nov wanting to hold above $10 for a while longer. Rice up 4 to 1231 1/2 with more Iraq talk as well as people starting to come to the realization that even old crop is tighter than previously thought. Open interest is rising and I would expect a pretty big pop in spec longs on Fridays commitments of traders. This is starting to give me pause for the near term with combines running to the south and talk of some small harvest hitting Arkansas in early august. Dow up another 97 to 21,743 and bonds drop 18 to 152.19.
Iowa still at the forefront of the grain bull story. Corn up 1 1/2 to 374 1/4 and wheat up a couple as well, 479 3/4. Beans up 6 to 994 3/4 with nov wanting to hold above $10 for a while longer. Rice up 4 to 1231 1/2 with more Iraq talk as well as people starting to come to the realization that even old crop is tighter than previously thought. Open interest is rising and I would expect a pretty big pop in spec longs on Fridays commitments of traders. This is starting to give me pause for the near term with combines running to the south and talk of some small harvest hitting Arkansas in early august. Dow up another 97 to 21,743 and bonds drop 18 to 152.19.
7/26
Grain bounce on less rain in Ia. and thoughts of solid export sales. We will see tomorrow on the sales. Corn up 4 to 372 3/4. Wheat plus 3 3/4 to 477 3/4. Beans 7 1/4 higher to settle 988 3/4. Rice did slip 2 1/2 on pretty much nothing. Stories about Iraq in Arkansas as we speak. Ill believe we sell to Iraq when the ship has left port. Dow up 86 to 21,646 but it wasn't very broad. Bonds gain 17 to 153.05. Export sale will set the tone tomorrow, and the bulls will take almost any good story.
Grain bounce on less rain in Ia. and thoughts of solid export sales. We will see tomorrow on the sales. Corn up 4 to 372 3/4. Wheat plus 3 3/4 to 477 3/4. Beans 7 1/4 higher to settle 988 3/4. Rice did slip 2 1/2 on pretty much nothing. Stories about Iraq in Arkansas as we speak. Ill believe we sell to Iraq when the ship has left port. Dow up 86 to 21,646 but it wasn't very broad. Bonds gain 17 to 153.05. Export sale will set the tone tomorrow, and the bulls will take almost any good story.
7/25
The night rally faded by morning and failed midday. Corn ended off 8 1/2 to 368 1/4. Wheat killed and 14 3/4 lower, 474. Beans give up 16 to 981 1/2. Rice bull still at it with growing open interest, plus 16, settle of 12.30. Spreads are getting compressed past November. Dow ran on bond weakness, 21,560, plus 61 while the bonds lose 1.20 to 152.20. I'm going to make a bit of a longer term call here in the financials. I'm starting to come to the opinion that the market is telling us that there will be a devaluation of all the global currencies, and the dollar will fare the best, so the financial boys would rather have devalued US debt than most any other, while the equities boys can have their higher stocks, even if the currency returned will ultimately buy you less. Time will tell, but if I was a global wealth type, I wouldn't want all my eggs bet on Merkel and Draghi. Last time Europe hit the fan, you better bet the ones left standing were standing on US soil. Been a while since we had to worry about the PIGS. My bean counting says the EU is walking backwards even without having to spend on defense, and now they know they have to.
The night rally faded by morning and failed midday. Corn ended off 8 1/2 to 368 1/4. Wheat killed and 14 3/4 lower, 474. Beans give up 16 to 981 1/2. Rice bull still at it with growing open interest, plus 16, settle of 12.30. Spreads are getting compressed past November. Dow ran on bond weakness, 21,560, plus 61 while the bonds lose 1.20 to 152.20. I'm going to make a bit of a longer term call here in the financials. I'm starting to come to the opinion that the market is telling us that there will be a devaluation of all the global currencies, and the dollar will fare the best, so the financial boys would rather have devalued US debt than most any other, while the equities boys can have their higher stocks, even if the currency returned will ultimately buy you less. Time will tell, but if I was a global wealth type, I wouldn't want all my eggs bet on Merkel and Draghi. Last time Europe hit the fan, you better bet the ones left standing were standing on US soil. Been a while since we had to worry about the PIGS. My bean counting says the EU is walking backwards even without having to spend on defense, and now they know they have to.
7/24
Grains lower but well off the days lows. Corn fared best, only down 2 1/2 to377 1/4. Wheat lost 10 1/2 to 488 3/4 and beans down 11 1/2 to 997 1/2. Rice rally continues to 1214, plus 15 1/2. Dow slips 19 to 21,499 and bonds maybe marking a high at 154.08, off 17.
Grains lower but well off the days lows. Corn fared best, only down 2 1/2 to377 1/4. Wheat lost 10 1/2 to 488 3/4 and beans down 11 1/2 to 997 1/2. Rice rally continues to 1214, plus 15 1/2. Dow slips 19 to 21,499 and bonds maybe marking a high at 154.08, off 17.
7/21
Corn takes it on the chin Friday, off 11 1/4 to 379 3/4. Wheat 499 1/4, off 6 1/2. Beans lose 4 1/4 to 1009. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1198 1/2. Rice farmers from south of 10 clear up to Mo. are getting tighter with their new crop, and the buyers are looking to get more sourced. Combines running in La. with nothing stellar to report so far. Dow off 63 to 21,518 and bonds gain another 23 tics to 154.25.
Corn takes it on the chin Friday, off 11 1/4 to 379 3/4. Wheat 499 1/4, off 6 1/2. Beans lose 4 1/4 to 1009. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1198 1/2. Rice farmers from south of 10 clear up to Mo. are getting tighter with their new crop, and the buyers are looking to get more sourced. Combines running in La. with nothing stellar to report so far. Dow off 63 to 21,518 and bonds gain another 23 tics to 154.25.
7/20
Weather again dominates the trade. Corn up 8 1/2 to 391. Wheat lower but rebounds to 505 3/4, plus 2 3/4. Beans gain 13 1/2 to 1013 1/4 and I'm surprised the open interest didn't show more gain. China rice agreement announced today. I would expect quite a lag between now and shipments, which I would expect to start with calrose, but anyway around it, this is good news for rice. $12, plus 13 1/2. Dow slips 15 to 21,581 and bonds gain 4 tics to 154.02.
Weather again dominates the trade. Corn up 8 1/2 to 391. Wheat lower but rebounds to 505 3/4, plus 2 3/4. Beans gain 13 1/2 to 1013 1/4 and I'm surprised the open interest didn't show more gain. China rice agreement announced today. I would expect quite a lag between now and shipments, which I would expect to start with calrose, but anyway around it, this is good news for rice. $12, plus 13 1/2. Dow slips 15 to 21,581 and bonds gain 4 tics to 154.02.
7/19
Same story, different day. Corn gains 5 1/2 at the close, but well off highs, 382 1/2. Wheat drops 3/4 cent to 503. Beans up 10 1/4 to 999 3/4. Rice unchanged. Dow rallies 76 settling 21,596 and bonds gain 3 tics to 153.30. Export sales tomorrow and some talk of new china sales.
Same story, different day. Corn gains 5 1/2 at the close, but well off highs, 382 1/2. Wheat drops 3/4 cent to 503. Beans up 10 1/4 to 999 3/4. Rice unchanged. Dow rallies 76 settling 21,596 and bonds gain 3 tics to 153.30. Export sales tomorrow and some talk of new china sales.
7/18
Bulls tried to push the heat story early, but again the rain gets in the way. This crop is not made yet, but weather has sure softened the blow of late planting. Minnesota has had it about as good as any in the nation, and they are my next big weather scare. That, by the way, would be an early freeze. ND has the same issues. Beans lose 15 from the highs to settle 989 1/2, up 4 1/2. Corn faded hard as well to only 2 higher, 377. Wheat actually wound up lower by 2 1/4 to 503 3/4. Rice stable and up 2 1/2 to 1186 1/2. Bankok post has Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in for 400K tons of rice. These would be atypical buyers to say the least, and that, my friends will most certainly keep a floor on global rice prices. Dow off 61 to 21,520 and the bonds gain 31 tics to 153.27. This is a mini flight to quality so heads up on the dow for the rest of the week.
Bulls tried to push the heat story early, but again the rain gets in the way. This crop is not made yet, but weather has sure softened the blow of late planting. Minnesota has had it about as good as any in the nation, and they are my next big weather scare. That, by the way, would be an early freeze. ND has the same issues. Beans lose 15 from the highs to settle 989 1/2, up 4 1/2. Corn faded hard as well to only 2 higher, 377. Wheat actually wound up lower by 2 1/4 to 503 3/4. Rice stable and up 2 1/2 to 1186 1/2. Bankok post has Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in for 400K tons of rice. These would be atypical buyers to say the least, and that, my friends will most certainly keep a floor on global rice prices. Dow off 61 to 21,520 and the bonds gain 31 tics to 153.27. This is a mini flight to quality so heads up on the dow for the rest of the week.
7/17
Not enough of anything to get a bull story to stick in the grains. 375 corn is off 1 1/4, and 506 wheat is down 4 3/4. Beans also slip 4 to 985. Rice pops 16 1/2 to 1184, picking up the last two trading days loss. Dow off 14 to 21,581 and bonds up 8 to 152.28 in a lackluster financial trade. Heat stories are out there with more vigor this evening, but this pesky rain keeps putting down the bull fire.
Not enough of anything to get a bull story to stick in the grains. 375 corn is off 1 1/4, and 506 wheat is down 4 3/4. Beans also slip 4 to 985. Rice pops 16 1/2 to 1184, picking up the last two trading days loss. Dow off 14 to 21,581 and bonds up 8 to 152.28 in a lackluster financial trade. Heat stories are out there with more vigor this evening, but this pesky rain keeps putting down the bull fire.
7/14
A little bounce for Friday came as no surprise, but not with much vigor. Corn up 6 1/2 to 376 1/4 wile beans gained 13 1/2 to 989. Meal and oats also had strength. Wheat actually lost a penny to 510 3/4. Rice slipped another 8 to 1167 1/2, but is now hitting bids, with underlying cash strength. Dow up 86 to 21,595 and bonds gain 14 tics to 152.20.
A little bounce for Friday came as no surprise, but not with much vigor. Corn up 6 1/2 to 376 1/4 wile beans gained 13 1/2 to 989. Meal and oats also had strength. Wheat actually lost a penny to 510 3/4. Rice slipped another 8 to 1167 1/2, but is now hitting bids, with underlying cash strength. Dow up 86 to 21,595 and bonds gain 14 tics to 152.20.
7/13
Ugly day. When the specs want out, the door gets skinny. Corn off 15 3/4 to 369 3/4. That's the good one. Wheat drops 25 1/4 to 511 3/4 while beans take a big 45 1/4 cent hit to 975 1/2. This is on just the perception of some rain next week. Rice looses 8 to 1175 1/2 with an iceberg scale down buyer operating. Daily rice chat has rolled over. Dow up 26 to 21,509 with Yellen talking, and bonds drop 19 tics to 152.06.
Ugly day. When the specs want out, the door gets skinny. Corn off 15 3/4 to 369 3/4. That's the good one. Wheat drops 25 1/4 to 511 3/4 while beans take a big 45 1/4 cent hit to 975 1/2. This is on just the perception of some rain next week. Rice looses 8 to 1175 1/2 with an iceberg scale down buyer operating. Daily rice chat has rolled over. Dow up 26 to 21,509 with Yellen talking, and bonds drop 19 tics to 152.06.
7/12
Nothing friendly in the report to me, locally or globally. Corn drops 16 1/4 to 385 1/2. Wheat down 16 to 537. Beans off 8 1/2 to 1020 3/4, still above the gap, but that has been taken tonight. Market also got a break in the weather forecasts, so the money boys had no bullets. Rice closes 1183 1/2, down 23 1/2 on some funny shift in carry stocks from medium to long. Cant wrap my hands around that with any source I have. Dow marches up 116 to 21,483 and bonds gain 23 tics to 152.25
Nothing friendly in the report to me, locally or globally. Corn drops 16 1/4 to 385 1/2. Wheat down 16 to 537. Beans off 8 1/2 to 1020 3/4, still above the gap, but that has been taken tonight. Market also got a break in the weather forecasts, so the money boys had no bullets. Rice closes 1183 1/2, down 23 1/2 on some funny shift in carry stocks from medium to long. Cant wrap my hands around that with any source I have. Dow marches up 116 to 21,483 and bonds gain 23 tics to 152.25
7/11
Buyers running into cash sales and a report tomorrow that I have a hard time being construed as bullish at these prices. Corn off 1/4 at 401 3/4. Wheat closes 3 higher, 553. Beans find 4 1/2 to 1029 1/4. Rice also gains 4 1/2 to 1207. Dow broke early, but as usual, crawls back to 8 higher on the day, 21,367. Bond in another dull trade two tics higher, 152.02. After the report, expect weather stories to be used to mask what is really a money flow rally, depending on how much gas the big money, non ag guys want to throw on the fire. Position limits have always only mattered for the little people, but it sure seems more pronounced now that we are down to a few big houses. That's only my opinion, with no real way to verify its correctness.
Buyers running into cash sales and a report tomorrow that I have a hard time being construed as bullish at these prices. Corn off 1/4 at 401 3/4. Wheat closes 3 higher, 553. Beans find 4 1/2 to 1029 1/4. Rice also gains 4 1/2 to 1207. Dow broke early, but as usual, crawls back to 8 higher on the day, 21,367. Bond in another dull trade two tics higher, 152.02. After the report, expect weather stories to be used to mask what is really a money flow rally, depending on how much gas the big money, non ag guys want to throw on the fire. Position limits have always only mattered for the little people, but it sure seems more pronounced now that we are down to a few big houses. That's only my opinion, with no real way to verify its correctness.
7/10
Strong Monday to start off the week. Corn up 9 1/2 to 402. Wheat rebounds to 15 higher, 550. Beans continue the higher march as well, plus 23 3/4 to 1024 3/4. Rice up 3 to 1202 1/2. Dow was minus 11 to 21,359 and bonds found 11 to 152. This is a weather market that currently isn't too worried about the weather, making it more of a money flow market. I cant tell you how far the money boys can push this thing, but their ignorance is a way for us to make profits in what was shaping up to be a very weak year. Please keep prudence in front of emotion and remember, when these buyers want out, who is going to hold the door. I will put out an update after USDA numbers on Wednesday, and we will have both domestic and global numbers to work with.
Strong Monday to start off the week. Corn up 9 1/2 to 402. Wheat rebounds to 15 higher, 550. Beans continue the higher march as well, plus 23 3/4 to 1024 3/4. Rice up 3 to 1202 1/2. Dow was minus 11 to 21,359 and bonds found 11 to 152. This is a weather market that currently isn't too worried about the weather, making it more of a money flow market. I cant tell you how far the money boys can push this thing, but their ignorance is a way for us to make profits in what was shaping up to be a very weak year. Please keep prudence in front of emotion and remember, when these buyers want out, who is going to hold the door. I will put out an update after USDA numbers on Wednesday, and we will have both domestic and global numbers to work with.
7/7
Wheat off another 4 to 535. Corn gains 2 to 392 1/2. Beans put on a show to 1001, plus 15 1/4 and attracting some hedging from the new crop cash market now. Rice up 7 to 1199 1/2. Cash should try to reload the river after this weeks export sales. Dow gains 90 to 21,370 while the bonds slip 20 tics to 151.21.
Wheat off another 4 to 535. Corn gains 2 to 392 1/2. Beans put on a show to 1001, plus 15 1/4 and attracting some hedging from the new crop cash market now. Rice up 7 to 1199 1/2. Cash should try to reload the river after this weeks export sales. Dow gains 90 to 21,370 while the bonds slip 20 tics to 151.21.
7/6
Minn wheat volatile again today, while oats were weak as well. Don't underestimate how the computers use this data for the bigger markets. CBOT wheat off 21 to 539 while corn had a relatively boring day, off 1 1/2 cents to 390 1/2. Options boys played with vol. in the calls mid day in corn. Worth noting. Beans wound up 4 cents to 985 3/4 with a strong meal market and renewed questions about the bio diesel program moving forward. I'm surprised at the meal strength. Rice just buying time for now with the remaining old crop trying to find its way out of America, milled or rough. Expect better milling quality in new crop, and consider how that will affect demand. If you run a domestic mill, you better have a better plan than hand to mouth. Wish I had access to the numbers the coops have for their committed supply come harvest. Bet they aren't happy with it. Dow dropped 142 to 21,280 and bonds dropped 1.02 to 152.09. Every time the financial side of things look like its roll over time, something gives us a pop. Exports sales in the morning will have a reasonable level of importance, as will the next several weeks.
Minn wheat volatile again today, while oats were weak as well. Don't underestimate how the computers use this data for the bigger markets. CBOT wheat off 21 to 539 while corn had a relatively boring day, off 1 1/2 cents to 390 1/2. Options boys played with vol. in the calls mid day in corn. Worth noting. Beans wound up 4 cents to 985 3/4 with a strong meal market and renewed questions about the bio diesel program moving forward. I'm surprised at the meal strength. Rice just buying time for now with the remaining old crop trying to find its way out of America, milled or rough. Expect better milling quality in new crop, and consider how that will affect demand. If you run a domestic mill, you better have a better plan than hand to mouth. Wish I had access to the numbers the coops have for their committed supply come harvest. Bet they aren't happy with it. Dow dropped 142 to 21,280 and bonds dropped 1.02 to 152.09. Every time the financial side of things look like its roll over time, something gives us a pop. Exports sales in the morning will have a reasonable level of importance, as will the next several weeks.
Violent day in Minn wheat, and that set the tone. Markets found some strength for the close, but now we have established that when the bull flinches, the selling is merciless. Corn closed plus 3 1/2 to 392 and wheat recovered to a nickel higher, 560. Beans gained 11 3/4 on hot and dry stories, 981 3/4. Rice gained 9 to 1190 1/2. Dow dropped 14 to 21,422 and the bonds gained 9 tics to 153.11.
7/3
Half day and no one to guard the hen house. I can make a case for bullish scenarios in the grains, but not today. This is simply big money playing the greater fool game to me. Its expensive, but not stupid, so patience might be the best course. I do believe this rally will have a short life, and be bloody in its failure. Switching to sept for corn and wheat, with corn up 7 1/2 to 388 1/2 and wheat gaining 29 to 555 . Same Minn, wheat story, different day. August beans gained 23 to 970. September rough rice( good name for a dog) closed unchanged, 1181 1/2. No international stories of note, so dow pops 136 to 21,436 while the bonds leak another 20 tics to 153.02.
Half day and no one to guard the hen house. I can make a case for bullish scenarios in the grains, but not today. This is simply big money playing the greater fool game to me. Its expensive, but not stupid, so patience might be the best course. I do believe this rally will have a short life, and be bloody in its failure. Switching to sept for corn and wheat, with corn up 7 1/2 to 388 1/2 and wheat gaining 29 to 555 . Same Minn, wheat story, different day. August beans gained 23 to 970. September rough rice( good name for a dog) closed unchanged, 1181 1/2. No international stories of note, so dow pops 136 to 21,436 while the bonds leak another 20 tics to 153.02.
6/30
Report mattered for a minute, then money flow set in. Corn up 10 3/4 to 370 1/2 on a bearish report. Wheat up 30 3/4 to 511 because Minn. wheat is going to get tight, never mind that not what's traded in Chicago. 942 1/4 in the beans , plus 26 3/4 on a slightly lower than expected acreage number and an ignored carry number. Rice drops 8 1/2 to 1150 1/2 with a friendly report. Dow up 45 to 21,300 and the bonds leak another 18 to 153.22. Good luck on a short Monday with loose money flowing.
Report mattered for a minute, then money flow set in. Corn up 10 3/4 to 370 1/2 on a bearish report. Wheat up 30 3/4 to 511 because Minn. wheat is going to get tight, never mind that not what's traded in Chicago. 942 1/4 in the beans , plus 26 3/4 on a slightly lower than expected acreage number and an ignored carry number. Rice drops 8 1/2 to 1150 1/2 with a friendly report. Dow up 45 to 21,300 and the bonds leak another 18 to 153.22. Good luck on a short Monday with loose money flowing.
6/29
Day before the report settling for corn, up 3 to 359 3/4. Beans put on an early show, but faded to only 1 1/2 higher, 915 1/2. Meal had no strength either. Wheat put on the show of the day, following Minn, wheat yet again to 480 1/4, plus 23. Rice bull back with his 100-200 to buy. At some point position limits will have to come into play. Dow sets back 147 to 21,255 and it could have been worse. Bonds off another 24 to 154.08, but Don't get too worked up about either for now.
Day before the report settling for corn, up 3 to 359 3/4. Beans put on an early show, but faded to only 1 1/2 higher, 915 1/2. Meal had no strength either. Wheat put on the show of the day, following Minn, wheat yet again to 480 1/4, plus 23. Rice bull back with his 100-200 to buy. At some point position limits will have to come into play. Dow sets back 147 to 21,255 and it could have been worse. Bonds off another 24 to 154.08, but Don't get too worked up about either for now.
6/28
Corn leaked another 2 1/2 to 356 3/4. There is a very wide range of estimates for Fridays report in corn, but I believe an hour after the report, we will be back to trading weather. Wheat popped 4 to 457 1/4 in sympathy with Minneapolis wheat, as well as a limit up July oat trade. Beans closed 914, plus 2 3/4 in another non event day. Rice bull stayed at it, up 13 1/2 to 1142 1/2. We are down now to 1400 open in July rice, with that many receipts registered. Make sure you are out of July positions in all the grains to avoid deliveries as of tomorrows close. Dow found its feet today gaining 111 to 21,402 and the bonds lost 22 tics on the close, which was middle of the range, 155 even.
Corn leaked another 2 1/2 to 356 3/4. There is a very wide range of estimates for Fridays report in corn, but I believe an hour after the report, we will be back to trading weather. Wheat popped 4 to 457 1/4 in sympathy with Minneapolis wheat, as well as a limit up July oat trade. Beans closed 914, plus 2 3/4 in another non event day. Rice bull stayed at it, up 13 1/2 to 1142 1/2. We are down now to 1400 open in July rice, with that many receipts registered. Make sure you are out of July positions in all the grains to avoid deliveries as of tomorrows close. Dow found its feet today gaining 111 to 21,402 and the bonds lost 22 tics on the close, which was middle of the range, 155 even.
6/27
Corn up a nickel early but failed off to 1/4 higher at the close, 359 1/4. Wheat bounced 3 1/4 cents to 453 1/4. Beans gained 4 1/2 to 911 1/4, but meal was flat. Global competition for meal and bean sales is starting to show its head. Rice up 11 o a relentless bull, no doubt feeling like they have an edge on the upcoming report, and they may well have. Should see strong deliveries in all the grains barring something goofy tomorrow, and I don't expect anything goofy. Dow backed up 77 points to end 21,291 and the bonds got heavy early and stayed heavy, off 1.07 to 155.22. I'm thinking we may have set a top in the bonds. We have met most of my objectives and nothing signals me to be long anymore. We closed where my gut didn't like the market last week, without much of a continuation in that timeframe. Stall in sub 157 range and a possible roll over today.
Corn up a nickel early but failed off to 1/4 higher at the close, 359 1/4. Wheat bounced 3 1/4 cents to 453 1/4. Beans gained 4 1/2 to 911 1/4, but meal was flat. Global competition for meal and bean sales is starting to show its head. Rice up 11 o a relentless bull, no doubt feeling like they have an edge on the upcoming report, and they may well have. Should see strong deliveries in all the grains barring something goofy tomorrow, and I don't expect anything goofy. Dow backed up 77 points to end 21,291 and the bonds got heavy early and stayed heavy, off 1.07 to 155.22. I'm thinking we may have set a top in the bonds. We have met most of my objectives and nothing signals me to be long anymore. We closed where my gut didn't like the market last week, without much of a continuation in that timeframe. Stall in sub 157 range and a possible roll over today.
6/26
This should be a week of evening positions, so don't blame me for the repeats. Weak wheat longs abandoned ship today, off 9 3/4 to 450. Break should settle down from here. Corn up 1 1/4 to 359 and beans up 2 1/4 to 906 3/4. Rice found selling early, but buying showed to keep us only down 7 1/2 cents, 1118. Seller wants a ceiling but buyer isn't done. Dow up 29 to 21,368 and bonds firm as well, 9 tics higher at 156.29.
This should be a week of evening positions, so don't blame me for the repeats. Weak wheat longs abandoned ship today, off 9 3/4 to 450. Break should settle down from here. Corn up 1 1/4 to 359 and beans up 2 1/4 to 906 3/4. Rice found selling early, but buying showed to keep us only down 7 1/2 cents, 1118. Seller wants a ceiling but buyer isn't done. Dow up 29 to 21,368 and bonds firm as well, 9 tics higher at 156.29.
6/23
Weekend positioning across the board. Corn continues its break, fueled buy some spec selling and longs with weak knees, off a nickel to 357 3/4. Wheat tried to hold, but ended off 1 1/2 to 459 3/4. Beans in a dull trade and up 1/2 to 904 1/2. Rice popped 15 to 1125 1/2, but found what appears to be cash resistance. Dow ends a listless dull 9 points lower at 21,339 while bonds find 5 tics late to 156.20.
Weekend positioning across the board. Corn continues its break, fueled buy some spec selling and longs with weak knees, off a nickel to 357 3/4. Wheat tried to hold, but ended off 1 1/2 to 459 3/4. Beans in a dull trade and up 1/2 to 904 1/2. Rice popped 15 to 1125 1/2, but found what appears to be cash resistance. Dow ends a listless dull 9 points lower at 21,339 while bonds find 5 tics late to 156.20.
6/22
Export sales were nothing special to start the day, and it went downhill from there. Corn off 6 to 362 3/4 and wheat closing only down 3 1/4 to 461 1/4 with some weather stories and yield threats. Beans took it on the chin following meal firmly below the $300 mark, July beans at 904, minus 14 3/4. Rice lost 7 to 1110 1/2 as the tropical storm really didn't pack much punch. Sure could use some sunlight down south about now. Dow off 30 to 21,348 and bonds lost a tic to 156.15. Now the trade will start to focus on which way the fireworks go on next Friday's reports.
Export sales were nothing special to start the day, and it went downhill from there. Corn off 6 to 362 3/4 and wheat closing only down 3 1/4 to 461 1/4 with some weather stories and yield threats. Beans took it on the chin following meal firmly below the $300 mark, July beans at 904, minus 14 3/4. Rice lost 7 to 1110 1/2 as the tropical storm really didn't pack much punch. Sure could use some sunlight down south about now. Dow off 30 to 21,348 and bonds lost a tic to 156.15. Now the trade will start to focus on which way the fireworks go on next Friday's reports.
6/21
Corn tried to hold all day, but faded a penny and a quarter to close 368 3/4. Wheat rolled over and lost 8 to 464 1/2. Beans gave up 9 to 918 3/4. This benign weather just wont fuel a rally, but Chicago will be back to 90 tomorrow. Used to be that the weather on LaSalle St. was all that mattered, but I think its safe to say those days have passed. Rice was weak all day and had the sell program back on for the close, down 19 1/2 to 1117 /2. We have some air either way now, so lets keep an eye on exports to start the morning and then weather in Louisiana. The Cajun state will have more to do this year with board pricing than normal years, so special attention is warranted. Dow dropped 59 to 21,378 and bonds gained 3 tics to 156.16.
Corn tried to hold all day, but faded a penny and a quarter to close 368 3/4. Wheat rolled over and lost 8 to 464 1/2. Beans gave up 9 to 918 3/4. This benign weather just wont fuel a rally, but Chicago will be back to 90 tomorrow. Used to be that the weather on LaSalle St. was all that mattered, but I think its safe to say those days have passed. Rice was weak all day and had the sell program back on for the close, down 19 1/2 to 1117 /2. We have some air either way now, so lets keep an eye on exports to start the morning and then weather in Louisiana. The Cajun state will have more to do this year with board pricing than normal years, so special attention is warranted. Dow dropped 59 to 21,378 and bonds gained 3 tics to 156.16.
6/20
More pressure in corn, but down to an area of support, 370, minus 5 1/ 4. Beans felt the heat as well losing a dime to 927 3/4. Wheat was lead higher on quality concerns to 472 1/2, plus 5 1/2, and pricing itself out of business in my book. Rice found a seller in July and turned tail dropping 15 to 1137. Buyer feeling lonely and cash not coming along. We do have a disturbance in the gulf and these things have a way of causing trouble, and sometimes one can lead to another. Dow had a nothing day down 24 to 21,437 and the bonds popped 31 tics to 156.13.
More pressure in corn, but down to an area of support, 370, minus 5 1/ 4. Beans felt the heat as well losing a dime to 927 3/4. Wheat was lead higher on quality concerns to 472 1/2, plus 5 1/2, and pricing itself out of business in my book. Rice found a seller in July and turned tail dropping 15 to 1137. Buyer feeling lonely and cash not coming along. We do have a disturbance in the gulf and these things have a way of causing trouble, and sometimes one can lead to another. Dow had a nothing day down 24 to 21,437 and the bonds popped 31 tics to 156.13.
6/19
Corn was a drag on the other grains all day, closing near the lows at 375 1/4, minus 8 3/4. Wheat petered out to only 1 3/4 higher, 467. Beans wind up 1 1/4 lower at 937 3/4. Rice kept up the march higher to 1152, plus 12 cents. Some hanky panky in the rice spreads, and 250 vs cash, with a corresponding drop in open interest. Remember, every day moves us one day closer to first notice day, and all the grains have receipt inventory still floating around the street. Dow got a tech pop and 128 point rally to 21,461 while bonds lost 6 tics to 155.14.
Corn was a drag on the other grains all day, closing near the lows at 375 1/4, minus 8 3/4. Wheat petered out to only 1 3/4 higher, 467. Beans wind up 1 1/4 lower at 937 3/4. Rice kept up the march higher to 1152, plus 12 cents. Some hanky panky in the rice spreads, and 250 vs cash, with a corresponding drop in open interest. Remember, every day moves us one day closer to first notice day, and all the grains have receipt inventory still floating around the street. Dow got a tech pop and 128 point rally to 21,461 while bonds lost 6 tics to 155.14.
6/16
Friday was a continuation for the grain bulls, with more short covering in corn and new buying in the wheat and rice. Beans closed out the week at 939, plus 4 1/4. Wheat put on a show, 11 1/2 higher to 465 1/4 reminding us about how volatile a contract can react to mildly friendly news when there is a big spec short. Corn up another 4 1/2 to 384, but there isn't much spec left to squeeze there. Rice closed down 7 1/2 to 11.40, but the bull is there still. Dow up 13 to 21,333 and the bonds gained 5 tics to 155.20 in relatively uneventful trade. Nothing exciting over the weekend to trigger stupid trade, and rain forecast in the Midwest this week without any heat issues worth noting. Expect to here someone talk about all is well as long as corn is knee high by the 4th of July. We will meet that threshold.
Friday was a continuation for the grain bulls, with more short covering in corn and new buying in the wheat and rice. Beans closed out the week at 939, plus 4 1/4. Wheat put on a show, 11 1/2 higher to 465 1/4 reminding us about how volatile a contract can react to mildly friendly news when there is a big spec short. Corn up another 4 1/2 to 384, but there isn't much spec left to squeeze there. Rice closed down 7 1/2 to 11.40, but the bull is there still. Dow up 13 to 21,333 and the bonds gained 5 tics to 155.20 in relatively uneventful trade. Nothing exciting over the weekend to trigger stupid trade, and rain forecast in the Midwest this week without any heat issues worth noting. Expect to here someone talk about all is well as long as corn is knee high by the 4th of July. We will meet that threshold.
6/15
Looks like the grain breather option won the day. Corn plus 2 1/2 to 379 1/2 and beans gain 3 to 934 3/4. Meal didn't want to come along today, and I would watch it for an indication early tomorrow. Wheat got legs, up 10 3/4 to 453 3/4, and the shorts are feeling the heat in all three grains. Rice was well bid early, had solid exports again, and caught fire. Up 44 1/2 to end the day at 1147 1/2 and gaining open interest with our big buyer adding in my opinion. Guy not afraid of 3000 shorts may not be afraid of 3000 longs either. Dow was weak, but just wouldn't stay down, closing off only 7 tics at 21.320. Bonds in a dull trade and down 5 to 155.15.
Looks like the grain breather option won the day. Corn plus 2 1/2 to 379 1/2 and beans gain 3 to 934 3/4. Meal didn't want to come along today, and I would watch it for an indication early tomorrow. Wheat got legs, up 10 3/4 to 453 3/4, and the shorts are feeling the heat in all three grains. Rice was well bid early, had solid exports again, and caught fire. Up 44 1/2 to end the day at 1147 1/2 and gaining open interest with our big buyer adding in my opinion. Guy not afraid of 3000 shorts may not be afraid of 3000 longs either. Dow was weak, but just wouldn't stay down, closing off only 7 tics at 21.320. Bonds in a dull trade and down 5 to 155.15.
Two distinct trains of thought out there today. The grain market has rolled over, and the grain market is taking a breather. Easy to make a case for either, because its way early in the season for the crop to be made, but globally we don't need a killer crop this year anyway. Corn drops 4 to 377 while wheat loses 2 to 443. Beans churned but ended off 3/4 at 931 3/4. Rice hit sell stops early, recovered, but closed off 22 1/2 cents, 1103. We are sitting on some bids right now, but I wouldn't be in a hurry here just yet. Fed did move as expected, and the dow shrugged it off in a pretty dull trade, up 47 to 21,327. Bonds on the other hand caught fire closing 155.20, up a point and 20. Took my lumps last time I faded a bond rally, but it sure looks like a tempting fade again. Time to let the charts make the call instead of the gut.
6/13
Classic Monday/Tuesday trade yet again, with wheat regaining pretty much all of Mondays losses, 445, plus 11. Corn and beans popped as well, but faded late to close 1 1/4 higher, 932 1/2 in the beans and 381 in the corn, up 3 3/4. Rice slipped another 4 1/2 to 11.25 1/2, with the long defending yet again. Dow powers up another 96 to close 21,280 and the bonds gain 2 tics to 154.01.
Classic Monday/Tuesday trade yet again, with wheat regaining pretty much all of Mondays losses, 445, plus 11. Corn and beans popped as well, but faded late to close 1 1/4 higher, 932 1/2 in the beans and 381 in the corn, up 3 3/4. Rice slipped another 4 1/2 to 11.25 1/2, with the long defending yet again. Dow powers up another 96 to close 21,280 and the bonds gain 2 tics to 154.01.
6/12
No big weather stories over the weekend, and a potential GMO issue with china in the beans, put all the grains on the defensive today. Corn dropped 10 1/2 to 377 1/4 while wheat lost 11 3/4 to 434. Beans also lost 10 1/4 to 931 1/4, and meal was a dog as well. Rice lost 2 cents to 1130, and the long is defending, but buying as little as necessary to do it based on my open interest read. Calendar will start to work against him pretty soon, if the bull doesn't get fed. Switching to sept in the dow today and joining sept for bonds, 21,184 and off 23 in the dow and minus 8 tics to 153.31 in the bonds. Fed will be making some form of announcement so I'd try not to get your fingers stuck in the bond cookie jar this week. In the grains, watch for yet another Monday/Tuesday trade.
No big weather stories over the weekend, and a potential GMO issue with china in the beans, put all the grains on the defensive today. Corn dropped 10 1/2 to 377 1/4 while wheat lost 11 3/4 to 434. Beans also lost 10 1/4 to 931 1/4, and meal was a dog as well. Rice lost 2 cents to 1130, and the long is defending, but buying as little as necessary to do it based on my open interest read. Calendar will start to work against him pretty soon, if the bull doesn't get fed. Switching to sept in the dow today and joining sept for bonds, 21,184 and off 23 in the dow and minus 8 tics to 153.31 in the bonds. Fed will be making some form of announcement so I'd try not to get your fingers stuck in the bond cookie jar this week. In the grains, watch for yet another Monday/Tuesday trade.
6/9
Corn continued its rally Friday to close the week at 387 3/4, plus 2 cents. Beans also closed near highs at 941 1/2. Wheat rolled over and ended off 3 1/2 to 445 3/4. Rice gained another 9 cents to 11.32. I'd say the government kicked the can down the road on this report, without enough data to make comfortable projections. Did give us a bit more of a floor for corn, and showed how dangerous a bean long can be once our weather rally fizzles, if it fizzles. Rice getting pretty close to my ending stocks for next year, although we are getting there from different places. The interesting thing about low carryover numbers is the how you get there, because that's what will drive prices. Dow closed up 73 to 21,251 and bonds looked higher and lower, but settled unchanged, 154.07. Nothing really crazy at the moment for Sunday night trade.
Corn continued its rally Friday to close the week at 387 3/4, plus 2 cents. Beans also closed near highs at 941 1/2. Wheat rolled over and ended off 3 1/2 to 445 3/4. Rice gained another 9 cents to 11.32. I'd say the government kicked the can down the road on this report, without enough data to make comfortable projections. Did give us a bit more of a floor for corn, and showed how dangerous a bean long can be once our weather rally fizzles, if it fizzles. Rice getting pretty close to my ending stocks for next year, although we are getting there from different places. The interesting thing about low carryover numbers is the how you get there, because that's what will drive prices. Dow closed up 73 to 21,251 and bonds looked higher and lower, but settled unchanged, 154.07. Nothing really crazy at the moment for Sunday night trade.
6/8
Thursday had the best of rally intentions, but got a little off track by the end of the day. Oats lost 15 cents to mute Tuesdays strength, and confirm its a casino worth watching more than playing. Corn lost most of its rally to end 385 3/4, up a penny. Wheat 449 1/4 and added 4 1/2 while beans closed 938, plus 7 1/4 but well off highs. Rice had a tight spread roll range and unchanged for the day, 1123. Dow up 15 to 21,178 and still climbing the wall of worry, while September bonds slip 9 tics to 154.07. Grains are waiting for the Friday 11 am reports to churn a few players before going back to a weather/ computer casino trade. I will note in the last 2 weeks I've covered roughly 3000 miles, and other than some really pretty corn south of 40 and more in Louisiana, our grain crops in Illinois, Indiana as of yesterday, Arkansas, and Missouri are stunted and delayed. That's polite for a crappy start to the growing season. I never put too much value in a 70 mph survey, but when you see dirt and corn stubble, as well as wheat still taller than the corn, you don't have to get out of the truck to walk the field. Dirt looks the same at speed or afoot.
Thursday had the best of rally intentions, but got a little off track by the end of the day. Oats lost 15 cents to mute Tuesdays strength, and confirm its a casino worth watching more than playing. Corn lost most of its rally to end 385 3/4, up a penny. Wheat 449 1/4 and added 4 1/2 while beans closed 938, plus 7 1/4 but well off highs. Rice had a tight spread roll range and unchanged for the day, 1123. Dow up 15 to 21,178 and still climbing the wall of worry, while September bonds slip 9 tics to 154.07. Grains are waiting for the Friday 11 am reports to churn a few players before going back to a weather/ computer casino trade. I will note in the last 2 weeks I've covered roughly 3000 miles, and other than some really pretty corn south of 40 and more in Louisiana, our grain crops in Illinois, Indiana as of yesterday, Arkansas, and Missouri are stunted and delayed. That's polite for a crappy start to the growing season. I never put too much value in a 70 mph survey, but when you see dirt and corn stubble, as well as wheat still taller than the corn, you don't have to get out of the truck to walk the field. Dirt looks the same at speed or afoot.
6/7
Volumes thru the roof in grains and price moves to show it., especially in the corn. up 7 1/2 cents, 384 3/4.. Wheat up 9 to 444 3/4. Beans tagged along today to rally 7 1/4 closing 930 3/4. Rice up 13 1/2 on rising volume and a slow day for the roll, 11.23. Worth watching to see if this is a one off or a new bull. Dow up 7 to 21,163 and bonds slip 15 to 154.16. Dow is holding well in the face of a rough crude market.
Volumes thru the roof in grains and price moves to show it., especially in the corn. up 7 1/2 cents, 384 3/4.. Wheat up 9 to 444 3/4. Beans tagged along today to rally 7 1/4 closing 930 3/4. Rice up 13 1/2 on rising volume and a slow day for the roll, 11.23. Worth watching to see if this is a one off or a new bull. Dow up 7 to 21,163 and bonds slip 15 to 154.16. Dow is holding well in the face of a rough crude market.
6/6
Lets start with what people don't watch. July oats up 14 cents today. Corn up 4 1/4 to 377 1/4 with increasing open interest, while wheat gains 6 1/4 on decreasing open interest. Notice what happens when a short wants out, like in the way wheat traded today, vs new people wanting in and the shorts not ready to throw in the towel, the way corn traded today. Beans lost most of its rally and settled 1 1/2 higher, 923 1/2. Rice up a nickel to 1109 1/2 with nothing much hitting my radar today. Bonds gain 20 tic to 154.31 while dow loses 20 tics to 21,156.
Lets start with what people don't watch. July oats up 14 cents today. Corn up 4 1/4 to 377 1/4 with increasing open interest, while wheat gains 6 1/4 on decreasing open interest. Notice what happens when a short wants out, like in the way wheat traded today, vs new people wanting in and the shorts not ready to throw in the towel, the way corn traded today. Beans lost most of its rally and settled 1 1/2 higher, 923 1/2. Rice up a nickel to 1109 1/2 with nothing much hitting my radar today. Bonds gain 20 tic to 154.31 while dow loses 20 tics to 21,156.
6/5
Monday was a good day to do anything but trade futures. We are in this small time window before a weather scare can be solidly hoisted on the public, and the spec short is already in for the most part, waiting to be fleeced. Farmers, mostly still in the field, don't have enough time to sit and talk about how bad this year is going to be at the coffee shop just yet. And we still have some pretty pricey options vol to pay if you do want insurance, so pay attention to that, because the insurance companies we call option specialists are pretty good at pricing risk, and they are saying more than flat price is today. Wheat unchanged, 429 1/2, Corn up 1/4 to 373, and beans settle 922, up 3/4 cent. I would note that new crop beans found a bid early and kept it over old crop all day, and that is worth noting in a dull market with an assumed bigger carryover projection for next year than this. Rice down 7 1/2 at the close in another computer program mini battle Royale but still above the buck, 1104 1/2. In the rice, we are in the roll from old crop to new, and we need a new crop buyer to offset this old crop pricing, or open interest will go back below 9000 again soon. Dow slips 27 to 21,176 and the bonds, switching to the September contract moving forward, off 16 tics to 154.11. Really surprised how much global money discounts the US capacity or ability to race long rates.
Monday was a good day to do anything but trade futures. We are in this small time window before a weather scare can be solidly hoisted on the public, and the spec short is already in for the most part, waiting to be fleeced. Farmers, mostly still in the field, don't have enough time to sit and talk about how bad this year is going to be at the coffee shop just yet. And we still have some pretty pricey options vol to pay if you do want insurance, so pay attention to that, because the insurance companies we call option specialists are pretty good at pricing risk, and they are saying more than flat price is today. Wheat unchanged, 429 1/2, Corn up 1/4 to 373, and beans settle 922, up 3/4 cent. I would note that new crop beans found a bid early and kept it over old crop all day, and that is worth noting in a dull market with an assumed bigger carryover projection for next year than this. Rice down 7 1/2 at the close in another computer program mini battle Royale but still above the buck, 1104 1/2. In the rice, we are in the roll from old crop to new, and we need a new crop buyer to offset this old crop pricing, or open interest will go back below 9000 again soon. Dow slips 27 to 21,176 and the bonds, switching to the September contract moving forward, off 16 tics to 154.11. Really surprised how much global money discounts the US capacity or ability to race long rates.
6/2
Bounce 2 1/4 cents for corn to 372 3/4, while wheat closes 1/2 higher at 429 1/2. Beans got back a pretty good piece of Mondays losses, plus 9 cents to 921 1/4. Rice had a bit of a battle again and closed 7 higher, 11.12. There was a pretty good piece of verses cash volume done, indicating futures protection has been used to cover cash needs. Dow ran up 71 to end the week 21,203 and the bonds popped 1.10 as well to 156.05. Bond market and FED commentary doesn't line up right now, but at some point we will get a reset from one side or the other. I think I would push again to lock any long term debt here if possible.
Bounce 2 1/4 cents for corn to 372 3/4, while wheat closes 1/2 higher at 429 1/2. Beans got back a pretty good piece of Mondays losses, plus 9 cents to 921 1/4. Rice had a bit of a battle again and closed 7 higher, 11.12. There was a pretty good piece of verses cash volume done, indicating futures protection has been used to cover cash needs. Dow ran up 71 to end the week 21,203 and the bonds popped 1.10 as well to 156.05. Bond market and FED commentary doesn't line up right now, but at some point we will get a reset from one side or the other. I think I would push again to lock any long term debt here if possible.
6/1
Market started the day with weather concerns easing and planting moving forward, pushing the grains lower. Corn recovered to 370 1/2, down 1.5 cents and wheat back to almost unchanged, 429. There is a realization that the wheat crop probably wont get better, and the corn crop wont get any bigger, but could get significantly smaller. Add the spec short to the equation, and you get these failed breaks. Beans have currency concerns, meal weighing overhead, and a Chinese buyer that is quickly becoming more fickle. Off 3 3/4 to 912 1/4. Never underestimate how good the Chinese trader can be, especially when he knows you have a weak hand. That said, we generally kill the crop a few times in the growing season, and we are sadly still in the planting season. Just don't look for any homeruns in beans this year. Dow popped 130 to 21,132 without any help from crude, and bonds slopped 9 tics lower to 154.29. Rice off 8 to 1105, and the computers are dancing, a buyer and a seller, all bits and bytes.
Market started the day with weather concerns easing and planting moving forward, pushing the grains lower. Corn recovered to 370 1/2, down 1.5 cents and wheat back to almost unchanged, 429. There is a realization that the wheat crop probably wont get better, and the corn crop wont get any bigger, but could get significantly smaller. Add the spec short to the equation, and you get these failed breaks. Beans have currency concerns, meal weighing overhead, and a Chinese buyer that is quickly becoming more fickle. Off 3 3/4 to 912 1/4. Never underestimate how good the Chinese trader can be, especially when he knows you have a weak hand. That said, we generally kill the crop a few times in the growing season, and we are sadly still in the planting season. Just don't look for any homeruns in beans this year. Dow popped 130 to 21,132 without any help from crude, and bonds slopped 9 tics lower to 154.29. Rice off 8 to 1105, and the computers are dancing, a buyer and a seller, all bits and bytes.
5/31
The day started as a solid Monday/Tuesday contender. Late fade didn't help anyone, with corn the best, up a nickel to 372. Wheat gave up any gains to settle off 1/4 at 429 1/4. Beans closed 916, plus 3 1/4. Rice put up highs early but closed off 5 1/2 to 1113, and the open interest isn't really growing with what most certainly is new selling against cash. Going to need a shot in the arm soon to keep this bull alive. Dow off13 to 21,002 and bonds gain 17 tics to 155.04. Trading tip for future Monday/Tuesday type trades. If the market feels like it has overdone a down move across the grain complex, since our bias is currently that the corn has the least resistance to up swings, buy the corn. Don't fall in love though, take the money and wait to play again.
The day started as a solid Monday/Tuesday contender. Late fade didn't help anyone, with corn the best, up a nickel to 372. Wheat gave up any gains to settle off 1/4 at 429 1/4. Beans closed 916, plus 3 1/4. Rice put up highs early but closed off 5 1/2 to 1113, and the open interest isn't really growing with what most certainly is new selling against cash. Going to need a shot in the arm soon to keep this bull alive. Dow off13 to 21,002 and bonds gain 17 tics to 155.04. Trading tip for future Monday/Tuesday type trades. If the market feels like it has overdone a down move across the grain complex, since our bias is currently that the corn has the least resistance to up swings, buy the corn. Don't fall in love though, take the money and wait to play again.
5/30
Ugly day in the grains, with corn losing 7 1/4 to 367 and wheat dropping 8 3/4 to 429 1/2. Beans followed meal down, with meal now soundly below $300 and beans closing 912 3/4, off 13 3/4. Rice on the other hand, had a stalwart bull pushing all day, up against cash selling but still 21 higher at 1118 1/2. I question his ultimate size, but have to respect his tenacity. Baby flight to safety in the financials today, with the Dow down 51 to 21,015 and the bonds gain 22 tics to 154.19. This feels like a Monday/Tuesday type trade again.
Ugly day in the grains, with corn losing 7 1/4 to 367 and wheat dropping 8 3/4 to 429 1/2. Beans followed meal down, with meal now soundly below $300 and beans closing 912 3/4, off 13 3/4. Rice on the other hand, had a stalwart bull pushing all day, up against cash selling but still 21 higher at 1118 1/2. I question his ultimate size, but have to respect his tenacity. Baby flight to safety in the financials today, with the Dow down 51 to 21,015 and the bonds gain 22 tics to 154.19. This feels like a Monday/Tuesday type trade again.
5/26
Corn up a nickel to 374 1/4 and wheat closes 438 1/4, up 7 1/2. The big short spec will make these pop up rallies a common occurrence this year in corn and wheat. Add on to that the corn is late and probably smaller acreage and wheat is definitely smaller acreage. Beans drop 13 with a fear of China cancellations and more acres switched to beans because of weather. 926 1/2. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1097 1/2 as the spec short might have had a few bullets left. Definitely have a new spec long, but the computers know the bias. Dow and bonds dead, 21,066 and 153.29.
Corn up a nickel to 374 1/4 and wheat closes 438 1/4, up 7 1/2. The big short spec will make these pop up rallies a common occurrence this year in corn and wheat. Add on to that the corn is late and probably smaller acreage and wheat is definitely smaller acreage. Beans drop 13 with a fear of China cancellations and more acres switched to beans because of weather. 926 1/2. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1097 1/2 as the spec short might have had a few bullets left. Definitely have a new spec long, but the computers know the bias. Dow and bonds dead, 21,066 and 153.29.
5/25
Corn and wheat in tight ranges, corn down 2 to 369 1/4 and wheat off 1 3/4 to 430 3/4. Beans struggled all day and crude taking it on the chin didn't help, losing 8 3/4 to 939 1/2. Still a dollar over USDA projected bottom, but a long time between now and the harvest. Rice rolled right back over today, 1093, down 12 1/2. Bull needs to step it up tomorrow, or the computer will grind him up. Still stories about an Iraq deal, but I will count it when the boat has left port. Dow continues its march up, 21,063, plus 78 and bonds gain 10 tics as well, 153.27. I don't get the bonds this strong and the dow continuing its rally. Soon, one or the other will have to give. Holidays have a way of turning markets around, so review your inventory.
Corn and wheat in tight ranges, corn down 2 to 369 1/4 and wheat off 1 3/4 to 430 3/4. Beans struggled all day and crude taking it on the chin didn't help, losing 8 3/4 to 939 1/2. Still a dollar over USDA projected bottom, but a long time between now and the harvest. Rice rolled right back over today, 1093, down 12 1/2. Bull needs to step it up tomorrow, or the computer will grind him up. Still stories about an Iraq deal, but I will count it when the boat has left port. Dow continues its march up, 21,063, plus 78 and bonds gain 10 tics as well, 153.27. I don't get the bonds this strong and the dow continuing its rally. Soon, one or the other will have to give. Holidays have a way of turning markets around, so review your inventory.
5/24
Market has to keep a bit of weather premium, as well as too many shorts to break hard for now. Corn up 1 3/4 to 371 1/4 and wheat gains 3 to 432 1/2. Beans settle unchanged, 948 1/4. Rice regains all of yesterdays losses, plus 14 1/2 to settle near cash resistance, 1105 1/2. Dow pops another 70 to 20,985 and bonds up 8 tics, 153.17.
Market has to keep a bit of weather premium, as well as too many shorts to break hard for now. Corn up 1 3/4 to 371 1/4 and wheat gains 3 to 432 1/2. Beans settle unchanged, 948 1/4. Rice regains all of yesterdays losses, plus 14 1/2 to settle near cash resistance, 1105 1/2. Dow pops another 70 to 20,985 and bonds up 8 tics, 153.17.
5/23
Classic Monday /Tuesday trade. Corn off 5 1/2 to 369 1/2 and wheat loses 4 3/4 to 429 1/2. Beans drop 8 1/4 to 948 1/4 and thinking about new lows. Rice rolled over after the follow thru buying failed to materialize in any size, down 14 1/2 to 10.91 . Obviously bumping up against new crop pricing over $11. Dow continues its recovery, plus 37 to 20,915 while bonds slipped 16 to 153.09.
Classic Monday /Tuesday trade. Corn off 5 1/2 to 369 1/2 and wheat loses 4 3/4 to 429 1/2. Beans drop 8 1/4 to 948 1/4 and thinking about new lows. Rice rolled over after the follow thru buying failed to materialize in any size, down 14 1/2 to 10.91 . Obviously bumping up against new crop pricing over $11. Dow continues its recovery, plus 37 to 20,915 while bonds slipped 16 to 153.09.
5/22
Computers herded the buyers early, then gave them remorse the rest of the day, settling off the highs by a ways. Corn up 2 1/2 to 375 and beans gained 3 1/2 to 956 1/2. Wheat closed a penny lower at 434 1/4. Markets could fade tomorrow barring something unexpected. Rice has a new buyer, pushing the market to 1105 1/2, up 22 1/2. Market settled on the highs and got there easier than I expected. That said, it sure feels overextended. Dow gains 91 to 20,878 and bonds stalled, off 2 to 153.25.
Computers herded the buyers early, then gave them remorse the rest of the day, settling off the highs by a ways. Corn up 2 1/2 to 375 and beans gained 3 1/2 to 956 1/2. Wheat closed a penny lower at 434 1/4. Markets could fade tomorrow barring something unexpected. Rice has a new buyer, pushing the market to 1105 1/2, up 22 1/2. Market settled on the highs and got there easier than I expected. That said, it sure feels overextended. Dow gains 91 to 20,878 and bonds stalled, off 2 to 153.25.
5/19
Friday bounce in the grains, as the Brazilian Real got some government support. Corn up 6 1/2 to 372 1/2 and wheat up 9 1/2 to 435 1/4. Beans gained 8 1/4 to 953. I would remind my customers that the real was underestimated early in the year for its effect on the beans. I don't expect that to happen again and with that in mind, we probably want to be prepared to take a smaller swing at this season's crop killing weather events. Unless they clean things up quickly in the southern hemisphere, we must remember not to put too much emphasis on our own back yard. Rice lost 5 1/2 to 1083 and its clear that the big short has jumped the shark. Who is next, and someone better step up soon. Dow up 143 to 20,787 and crude strength helped, while the bonds gain only a tic to 153.27.
Friday bounce in the grains, as the Brazilian Real got some government support. Corn up 6 1/2 to 372 1/2 and wheat up 9 1/2 to 435 1/4. Beans gained 8 1/4 to 953. I would remind my customers that the real was underestimated early in the year for its effect on the beans. I don't expect that to happen again and with that in mind, we probably want to be prepared to take a smaller swing at this season's crop killing weather events. Unless they clean things up quickly in the southern hemisphere, we must remember not to put too much emphasis on our own back yard. Rice lost 5 1/2 to 1083 and its clear that the big short has jumped the shark. Who is next, and someone better step up soon. Dow up 143 to 20,787 and crude strength helped, while the bonds gain only a tic to 153.27.
5/18
Brazil. Politics in brazil, with the coinciding drop in the real, moved a ton of Brazilian beans. Board lost 31 cents to close 944 3/4. Corn followed down 5 1/2 to 366 on increased spec selling based on my read of open interest. Wheat held lows and bounced to only down 1 1/4 to 425 3/4. Rice open interest dropped below 9000 for the first time in a long time, off 2 1/2 to 1088 1/2. My bet has rice pretty tired of its rally for now. Dow stabilized and closed up 39 to 20,644 and bonds gained a tic to 153.26.
Brazil. Politics in brazil, with the coinciding drop in the real, moved a ton of Brazilian beans. Board lost 31 cents to close 944 3/4. Corn followed down 5 1/2 to 366 on increased spec selling based on my read of open interest. Wheat held lows and bounced to only down 1 1/4 to 425 3/4. Rice open interest dropped below 9000 for the first time in a long time, off 2 1/2 to 1088 1/2. My bet has rice pretty tired of its rally for now. Dow stabilized and closed up 39 to 20,644 and bonds gained a tic to 153.26.
5/17
Early grain strength faded some, but corn closed up 3 3/4 to 371 1/2, and wheat up 2 3/4 to 427. Meal leaked a little and beans closed of 1/2 at 975 3/4. Rice buyer put on a show, up 28 1/2 to 10.91. Open interest up in rice tonight, so clearly its a new long. Dow gets hammered on talk of impeachment for The Donald. down 330 to 20,605. Bonds rallied 2.06 to 153.25. Dow is firm tonight, and lets hope we can whistle past the graveyard again, but if the dow gets weak again tomorrow, especially after noon, the sidelines are going to look real attractive.
Early grain strength faded some, but corn closed up 3 3/4 to 371 1/2, and wheat up 2 3/4 to 427. Meal leaked a little and beans closed of 1/2 at 975 3/4. Rice buyer put on a show, up 28 1/2 to 10.91. Open interest up in rice tonight, so clearly its a new long. Dow gets hammered on talk of impeachment for The Donald. down 330 to 20,605. Bonds rallied 2.06 to 153.25. Dow is firm tonight, and lets hope we can whistle past the graveyard again, but if the dow gets weak again tomorrow, especially after noon, the sidelines are going to look real attractive.
5/16
Corn unchanged, 367 3/4, wheat up a penny,. 424 1/4, and rice off 1/2 cent, 1062 1/2. Beans pop 11 cents to 976 1/4 with more export sales and currency talk from SA. Not the time to get too wound up about any daily moves, as money flows in and out. Dow up 5 tics to 20,935 and the bonds up 10 to 151.19. Lets get the last seed planted.
Corn unchanged, 367 3/4, wheat up a penny,. 424 1/4, and rice off 1/2 cent, 1062 1/2. Beans pop 11 cents to 976 1/4 with more export sales and currency talk from SA. Not the time to get too wound up about any daily moves, as money flows in and out. Dow up 5 tics to 20,935 and the bonds up 10 to 151.19. Lets get the last seed planted.
5/15
Mild weather leads to a much weaker wheat market, off 9 1/2 to 423 1/4. That kept the pressure on corn, ending the day at 367 3/4, down 3 1/4. Beans bounced a little to 965 1/4, up 2 1/4. Meal had nothing, and nothing looking forward in the cash either. Rice regained Fridays losses, up 22 to 1063. Dow found some strength to 20,930,up 82 while the bonds were a non event, off 5 tics to 151.09.
Mild weather leads to a much weaker wheat market, off 9 1/2 to 423 1/4. That kept the pressure on corn, ending the day at 367 3/4, down 3 1/4. Beans bounced a little to 965 1/4, up 2 1/4. Meal had nothing, and nothing looking forward in the cash either. Rice regained Fridays losses, up 22 to 1063. Dow found some strength to 20,930,up 82 while the bonds were a non event, off 5 tics to 151.09.
5/12
Mostly a settling up day Friday , with Wheat off a penny, 432 3/4 and corn up a penny and 3/4 to 371. Beans leaked another 3 1/4 to 963. I would note that it will be difficult to keep this big of a corn spec short open interest with a long season in front of us. I think of all the grains, corn should give us a better opportunity to price. Rice short was run out, and then the market ran out of steam, off 23 to 1041. Dow off 22 to 20,848 and bonds gained 26 tics to 151.14
Mostly a settling up day Friday , with Wheat off a penny, 432 3/4 and corn up a penny and 3/4 to 371. Beans leaked another 3 1/4 to 963. I would note that it will be difficult to keep this big of a corn spec short open interest with a long season in front of us. I think of all the grains, corn should give us a better opportunity to price. Rice short was run out, and then the market ran out of steam, off 23 to 1041. Dow off 22 to 20,848 and bonds gained 26 tics to 151.14
5/11
In a nut shell, exports were bad, and that set the tone for the day. Corn fell4 1/2 to 369 1/4 and beans gave up another 4 to 966 1/4. Wheat gained 2 to 433 3/4 with some talk about the global balance sheet and how maybe the global glut in wheat is overstated. That has been my stance in wheat and rice. Rice has another power up day, 10.64, plus 35 1/2. Rice market can keep going from here, but the easy money is within a quarter of being made for now to me. Dow rallies strong to settle off only 23 tics at 20,870 and bonds slept thru the day, plus 3 settle, 150.20. I'm thinking with a heavy spec short in the grains, I would err to the long side a little over the weekend if I was going to play.
In a nut shell, exports were bad, and that set the tone for the day. Corn fell4 1/2 to 369 1/4 and beans gave up another 4 to 966 1/4. Wheat gained 2 to 433 3/4 with some talk about the global balance sheet and how maybe the global glut in wheat is overstated. That has been my stance in wheat and rice. Rice has another power up day, 10.64, plus 35 1/2. Rice market can keep going from here, but the easy money is within a quarter of being made for now to me. Dow rallies strong to settle off only 23 tics at 20,870 and bonds slept thru the day, plus 3 settle, 150.20. I'm thinking with a heavy spec short in the grains, I would err to the long side a little over the weekend if I was going to play.
5/10
Report gave us pretty much an expected report, and we got the early grain pop as expected. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 431 3/4 and corn up a solid 7 1/2 to 373 3/4. Beans faded and closed 3 3/4 lower at 970 1/4. They gave us real rice numbers this year, as opposed to last year, and the market responded with a 41 1/2 cent rally to 1028 1/2. Dow off 14 to 20,893 and bonds off 7 to 150.17. We are now back to the weather. Wheat cant take much more bad weather, and corn acres need to all get in. Rice acres keep getting smaller, and although I agree roughly with the WASDE carryover for next year, I disagree with how we get there, and that difference has a lot of pricing inference.
Report gave us pretty much an expected report, and we got the early grain pop as expected. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 431 3/4 and corn up a solid 7 1/2 to 373 3/4. Beans faded and closed 3 3/4 lower at 970 1/4. They gave us real rice numbers this year, as opposed to last year, and the market responded with a 41 1/2 cent rally to 1028 1/2. Dow off 14 to 20,893 and bonds off 7 to 150.17. We are now back to the weather. Wheat cant take much more bad weather, and corn acres need to all get in. Rice acres keep getting smaller, and although I agree roughly with the WASDE carryover for next year, I disagree with how we get there, and that difference has a lot of pricing inference.
5/9
Beans clearly a Monday Tuesday trade, up 9 1/4 to 974. Corn tried but ultimately up only 1/2 cent to 366 1/2. Wheat just had nothing all day, ending 429 1/2, off 4. Rice off 7 1/2 to 987 on very little volume and taking a break. My guess is tomorrow at 11 all the grains can get a pop, as there is short open interest that needs more bearish info than I expect to get. Especially in rice. Another dull financial day, dow off 34 to 20,907 and bonds off 18 to 150.24.
Beans clearly a Monday Tuesday trade, up 9 1/4 to 974. Corn tried but ultimately up only 1/2 cent to 366 1/2. Wheat just had nothing all day, ending 429 1/2, off 4. Rice off 7 1/2 to 987 on very little volume and taking a break. My guess is tomorrow at 11 all the grains can get a pop, as there is short open interest that needs more bearish info than I expect to get. Especially in rice. Another dull financial day, dow off 34 to 20,907 and bonds off 18 to 150.24.
5/8
Current story is stronger dollar, weather not as bad as feared, and a potential bearish lean for Wednesdays report. I think it tastes like a Monday-Tuesday churn. We will know by tomorrows close. Corn down 4 3/4 to 366. Wheat feeling a softer global market and down 8 3/4 to 433 1/2. Beans soft as well, 964 3/4, off 8 1/4. I would note especially in corn that the growing open interest in a down market in a seasonally strong time sets the table for strong spikes, even if the underlying fundamentals are weak. Rice up 8 to 994 1/2 with a bear that has to be concerned, both technically and fundamentally. He can bully techs for a while, but some day the fundamentals will come to roost. Dow dull and 14 tics lower at 20,941 and the bonds give up 16 to 151.10. VIX is dirt cheap, so be prepared for some fireworks soon. When everyone stops worrying, its time to worry.
Current story is stronger dollar, weather not as bad as feared, and a potential bearish lean for Wednesdays report. I think it tastes like a Monday-Tuesday churn. We will know by tomorrows close. Corn down 4 3/4 to 366. Wheat feeling a softer global market and down 8 3/4 to 433 1/2. Beans soft as well, 964 3/4, off 8 1/4. I would note especially in corn that the growing open interest in a down market in a seasonally strong time sets the table for strong spikes, even if the underlying fundamentals are weak. Rice up 8 to 994 1/2 with a bear that has to be concerned, both technically and fundamentally. He can bully techs for a while, but some day the fundamentals will come to roost. Dow dull and 14 tics lower at 20,941 and the bonds give up 16 to 151.10. VIX is dirt cheap, so be prepared for some fireworks soon. When everyone stops worrying, its time to worry.
5/5
Fridays action saw a bounce back 4 plus cents in corn and wheat, 370 3/4 and 442 1/4. Beans drift 1 1/4 lower to 973 and rice slips 4 to 986 1/2. Dow gains 83 in front of a perceived favorable election in France, which has happened, 20,954. Bonds up 3 tics to 151.26.
Fridays action saw a bounce back 4 plus cents in corn and wheat, 370 3/4 and 442 1/4. Beans drift 1 1/4 lower to 973 and rice slips 4 to 986 1/2. Dow gains 83 in front of a perceived favorable election in France, which has happened, 20,954. Bonds up 3 tics to 151.26.
5/4
Been a very long day, with more theories floating around about what's going on in the grain markets than a good murder mystery. No more ethanol sales to SA, global wheat is still bearish, bean exports to China will never end, you name it. Sometimes its a futile exercise to try to assign a fundamental reason for one days trade. Corn off 8 1/4 and wheat took a bigger hit, off 16 1/4 to 437 3/4. Apparently no snow fell in Kansas and its perfect weather moving forward. Beans slip a penny to 974 1/4 and rice off half cent to 990 1/2, after the bear couldn't keep it down. Normally, rice takes the rain best, but this is not a normal situation, with so much excess water to come down river from Missouri over the next few weeks. Dow off8 to 20,871 and bonds dip a point o 3 to 151.23. Tomorrow might not be the worst day to try to catch a falling knife in the wheat or corn for those who like to gamble over the weekend.
Been a very long day, with more theories floating around about what's going on in the grain markets than a good murder mystery. No more ethanol sales to SA, global wheat is still bearish, bean exports to China will never end, you name it. Sometimes its a futile exercise to try to assign a fundamental reason for one days trade. Corn off 8 1/4 and wheat took a bigger hit, off 16 1/4 to 437 3/4. Apparently no snow fell in Kansas and its perfect weather moving forward. Beans slip a penny to 974 1/4 and rice off half cent to 990 1/2, after the bear couldn't keep it down. Normally, rice takes the rain best, but this is not a normal situation, with so much excess water to come down river from Missouri over the next few weeks. Dow off8 to 20,871 and bonds dip a point o 3 to 151.23. Tomorrow might not be the worst day to try to catch a falling knife in the wheat or corn for those who like to gamble over the weekend.
5/3
More liquidating trade today in the grains, with wheat unchanged and corn 2 1/2 higher at 374 3/4. Meal lead beans 6 1/2 higher to 975 1/4. Guess people took the rice comments to heart, or is it that we are going to lose a bunch of rice land, and we don't have the seed to replant if we wanted. 31 higher to 991, and bid tonight. Short isn't finding all the ready sellers this time thru. Another dull day with the FED sitting pat for another month, dow up 14 to 20,879 and bonds plus 2 to 152.26. Export sales in the morning.
More liquidating trade today in the grains, with wheat unchanged and corn 2 1/2 higher at 374 3/4. Meal lead beans 6 1/2 higher to 975 1/4. Guess people took the rice comments to heart, or is it that we are going to lose a bunch of rice land, and we don't have the seed to replant if we wanted. 31 higher to 991, and bid tonight. Short isn't finding all the ready sellers this time thru. Another dull day with the FED sitting pat for another month, dow up 14 to 20,879 and bonds plus 2 to 152.26. Export sales in the morning.
5/2
Back and fill today, with corn off 5 1/4 to 372 1/4 and wheat off 2 to 454. Beans lose 1 1/2 to 968 3/4 and rice off 3 1/2 to 960. We are going to lose some wheat, but we do have room to lose some. We are going to lose some corn, but we do have some room to lose some, and we might be losing our SA ethanol exports as well. Don't see us losing any beans of substance, and we have room to lose some. Meal was weak again today. We are going to lose a chunk of rice, and I personally don't think we have the room to lose a chunk. I was worried about buying acres from the 3/31 report, which we didn't. My balance sheet gets mighty tight waaay before the industry thinks so. Stay at these prices another month for this hemisphere exports and watch the millers cry next year. This hand to mouth rice world is going to regret it sooner than people recognize. Dow off 8 tics,20,865, in a dull day, and bonds up 24 to 152.24 and stuck in a range. Think the range boys are back in the bonds.
Back and fill today, with corn off 5 1/4 to 372 1/4 and wheat off 2 to 454. Beans lose 1 1/2 to 968 3/4 and rice off 3 1/2 to 960. We are going to lose some wheat, but we do have room to lose some. We are going to lose some corn, but we do have some room to lose some, and we might be losing our SA ethanol exports as well. Don't see us losing any beans of substance, and we have room to lose some. Meal was weak again today. We are going to lose a chunk of rice, and I personally don't think we have the room to lose a chunk. I was worried about buying acres from the 3/31 report, which we didn't. My balance sheet gets mighty tight waaay before the industry thinks so. Stay at these prices another month for this hemisphere exports and watch the millers cry next year. This hand to mouth rice world is going to regret it sooner than people recognize. Dow off 8 tics,20,865, in a dull day, and bonds up 24 to 152.24 and stuck in a range. Think the range boys are back in the bonds.
5/1
First weather market of the year on Monday, with corn and wheat spec shorts getting a lesson in selling too early. Corn up 11 to 377 1/2, and wheat gains 23 3/4 to 456. Open interest dropped in both, so no doubt it is short cover. Beans up 14 to 970 1/4 and firm overnight. Funny, because all the talk of potential lost corn acres adds to potential bean acres. Rice up 21 1/2 to 963 1/2 as the spec short there couldn't defend his recent sells, but he did try all day to keep a lid on the rally. 73 new receipts out and spread is carry. Dow off a tic to 20,873 and bonds slip 31 to 152 even. Look for grain consolidation today.
First weather market of the year on Monday, with corn and wheat spec shorts getting a lesson in selling too early. Corn up 11 to 377 1/2, and wheat gains 23 3/4 to 456. Open interest dropped in both, so no doubt it is short cover. Beans up 14 to 970 1/4 and firm overnight. Funny, because all the talk of potential lost corn acres adds to potential bean acres. Rice up 21 1/2 to 963 1/2 as the spec short there couldn't defend his recent sells, but he did try all day to keep a lid on the rally. 73 new receipts out and spread is carry. Dow off a tic to 20,873 and bonds slip 31 to 152 even. Look for grain consolidation today.
4/28
July futures but nothing to say. Corn off2 1/2 to 366 1/2, and wheat up a penny to 432 1/4 Beans slip a penny to 956 1/4 and so does rice, 942. Rice still has 200 unaccounted for may shorts. Dow off 24 to 20,874 and bonds up 8 tics to 152.31
July futures but nothing to say. Corn off2 1/2 to 366 1/2, and wheat up a penny to 432 1/4 Beans slip a penny to 956 1/4 and so does rice, 942. Rice still has 200 unaccounted for may shorts. Dow off 24 to 20,874 and bonds up 8 tics to 152.31
4/27
All the grains had deliveries, and mostly with enough carry to get closer to current than usual. Corn up 3 to 362, and the wheat rallied after noon to close up 5 3/4 to 413 1/2. Beans closed flat on the day, 945 3/4. Rice slips a penny to 913 1/2 with a new and aggressive short back, although a lot less selling power, as well as a better founded buying base. Rice delivered current but with under 400 receipts, as the banksters got a healthy roll today. About 200 may shorts have a decision tomorrow. Dow and bonds were basically flat, 20,898 and 152.23. We will be switching to July for the grains tomorrow.
All the grains had deliveries, and mostly with enough carry to get closer to current than usual. Corn up 3 to 362, and the wheat rallied after noon to close up 5 3/4 to 413 1/2. Beans closed flat on the day, 945 3/4. Rice slips a penny to 913 1/2 with a new and aggressive short back, although a lot less selling power, as well as a better founded buying base. Rice delivered current but with under 400 receipts, as the banksters got a healthy roll today. About 200 may shorts have a decision tomorrow. Dow and bonds were basically flat, 20,898 and 152.23. We will be switching to July for the grains tomorrow.
4/26
Corn off 6 to 359, giving back yesterdays gain. Wheat off a penny to 407 3/4 after being stronger all day. Export sales were terrible, but we have a weather threat and a weekend to deal with, and an overbooked spec short. Beans off 8 3/4 to 945 3/4 and solid exports will be in the back of a sellers mind today. Rice off 15 to 914 1/2 on final execution of the farmer at the mercy of an elevator and appears to be a new motivated seller, with open interest gaining when it should be going down. If I can sell 500 and profit on 5000 cash, why not? Just speculation. BTW, rice export sales and shipments stellar again. Dow off 40 to 20,905 and bonds up 8 to 152.21.
Corn off 6 to 359, giving back yesterdays gain. Wheat off a penny to 407 3/4 after being stronger all day. Export sales were terrible, but we have a weather threat and a weekend to deal with, and an overbooked spec short. Beans off 8 3/4 to 945 3/4 and solid exports will be in the back of a sellers mind today. Rice off 15 to 914 1/2 on final execution of the farmer at the mercy of an elevator and appears to be a new motivated seller, with open interest gaining when it should be going down. If I can sell 500 and profit on 5000 cash, why not? Just speculation. BTW, rice export sales and shipments stellar again. Dow off 40 to 20,905 and bonds up 8 to 152.21.
4/25
Short covering rally in corn, up 5 3/4 to 365 with a pretty big drop in open interest. Same story in wheat, up 6 1/4 to 408 3/4. Beans leaked 6 3/4 to 954 1/2 with nothing feeding the bull. Did we say Monday/Tuesday? Rice drops thru support and closes off 31 cents to 929 1/2, well off where I thought would hold. Over 4000 volume in a 9000 open interest contract. If that's not transfer of ownership, I don't know what is. Dow up a strong 249 again today to 20,945 and bonds lose 1.01 to 152.13. Whistling past the grave yard again. Need to be reviewing all may positions tomorrow and get the rolls done. Feel free to call and we can go over your options.
Short covering rally in corn, up 5 3/4 to 365 with a pretty big drop in open interest. Same story in wheat, up 6 1/4 to 408 3/4. Beans leaked 6 3/4 to 954 1/2 with nothing feeding the bull. Did we say Monday/Tuesday? Rice drops thru support and closes off 31 cents to 929 1/2, well off where I thought would hold. Over 4000 volume in a 9000 open interest contract. If that's not transfer of ownership, I don't know what is. Dow up a strong 249 again today to 20,945 and bonds lose 1.01 to 152.13. Whistling past the grave yard again. Need to be reviewing all may positions tomorrow and get the rolls done. Feel free to call and we can go over your options.
4/24
Wheat faded 2 1/2 to 402 1/2 with no decent exports, no weather concerns and a glut of global wheat. Don't chase this one as the spec is short, and can be fickle/ignorant in trade execution. Corn up 2 1/4 to 359 1/4, again with a big spec short, but a few weather thoughts to goose the trade. Same with the beans, up 10 1/4 to 961 1/4 on spec short covering and a slow SA seller for now. Look for a potential Monday/Tuesday trade again. Rice took it on the chin, off 16 1/2 to 960 1/2, where I have expected to find support. Early in the week to be here though. Looks like we will deliver current and at pretty much full carry. If you are a farmer, time to up the ante on contract specs. Heard the CME is going to variable rate storage now in the KC wheat contract. If they want to totally kill rice, and I believe some in the industry would love that, variable rate would be the ticket. When is the last time any of you were consulted about contract specs? France has moved closer to a young, charismatic, inexperienced socialist to run the country, (sound familiar) and the stock market rejoices, up 193 to 20,696 while bonds slip 23 to 153.14. Its funny how fast Putin could roll thru socialist Europe, yet they seem oblivious. I just read if sheep could vote, they would vote for who gives them free food, even though that same person will later slaughter them. Rings scary true.
Wheat faded 2 1/2 to 402 1/2 with no decent exports, no weather concerns and a glut of global wheat. Don't chase this one as the spec is short, and can be fickle/ignorant in trade execution. Corn up 2 1/4 to 359 1/4, again with a big spec short, but a few weather thoughts to goose the trade. Same with the beans, up 10 1/4 to 961 1/4 on spec short covering and a slow SA seller for now. Look for a potential Monday/Tuesday trade again. Rice took it on the chin, off 16 1/2 to 960 1/2, where I have expected to find support. Early in the week to be here though. Looks like we will deliver current and at pretty much full carry. If you are a farmer, time to up the ante on contract specs. Heard the CME is going to variable rate storage now in the KC wheat contract. If they want to totally kill rice, and I believe some in the industry would love that, variable rate would be the ticket. When is the last time any of you were consulted about contract specs? France has moved closer to a young, charismatic, inexperienced socialist to run the country, (sound familiar) and the stock market rejoices, up 193 to 20,696 while bonds slip 23 to 153.14. Its funny how fast Putin could roll thru socialist Europe, yet they seem oblivious. I just read if sheep could vote, they would vote for who gives them free food, even though that same person will later slaughter them. Rings scary true.
4/21
Corn dead, of 3/4 to 357. Wheat off another 1 1/4 and trying to base. Beans get back Thursdays break to settle 951. Rice off 8 to 977, hooking the 980 puts. Dow pretty quiet and down 25 to 20,503. Bonds flat on the day 154.05. Back to the fields.
Corn dead, of 3/4 to 357. Wheat off another 1 1/4 and trying to base. Beans get back Thursdays break to settle 951. Rice off 8 to 977, hooking the 980 puts. Dow pretty quiet and down 25 to 20,503. Bonds flat on the day 154.05. Back to the fields.
4/20
Wow, did the market take poor exports to task quickly. Corn off 4 to 357 3/4, and wheat down hard to 406 1/4, off 12 3/4. Big spec shorts and they added to those shorts today. Beans off 3 1/2 to 946 3/4. Rice technical have turned and the computer bear jumped on it hard, off 20 to 985. Dow up a strong 193 points to 20,528 and the bonds leaked another 19 to 154.05. Lets see if we can get a little bit of a Friday bounce to end the week.
Wow, did the market take poor exports to task quickly. Corn off 4 to 357 3/4, and wheat down hard to 406 1/4, off 12 3/4. Big spec shorts and they added to those shorts today. Beans off 3 1/2 to 946 3/4. Rice technical have turned and the computer bear jumped on it hard, off 20 to 985. Dow up a strong 193 points to 20,528 and the bonds leaked another 19 to 154.05. Lets see if we can get a little bit of a Friday bounce to end the week.
4/19
Corn and rice unchanged Wednesday, with another big roll day in rice with open interest dropping as well. 419 in wheat, off 3 1/2 and beans gain 4 1/4 to 950 1/4. Dow off 98 to 20,335 and bonds slip 13 to 154.24. No real stories to waste your time, so lets stay focused on executing planting . Export sales were nothing to get excited about, and this could become a problem pretty quickly.
Corn and rice unchanged Wednesday, with another big roll day in rice with open interest dropping as well. 419 in wheat, off 3 1/2 and beans gain 4 1/4 to 950 1/4. Dow off 98 to 20,335 and bonds slip 13 to 154.24. No real stories to waste your time, so lets stay focused on executing planting . Export sales were nothing to get excited about, and this could become a problem pretty quickly.
4/18
Corn off another 4 3/4 to 361 3/4 with increasing open interest and a large spec short. That should affect your hedging thoughts for now. Wheat up 1 1/2 to 422 1/2 and trying to base. Beans off 7 1/4 to 946 with a solid late bounce. Be interested if any rally tomorrow can gain traction. Rice had a big spread roll today, giving up a nickel to 1005. Dow off 136 to 20433 and bonds continue the rally to 155.05. Financial markets are telling us that no one is afraid of Trump really getting the interest rate train rolling in the near term. I don't buy it, buy must be prudent fading it.
Corn off another 4 3/4 to 361 3/4 with increasing open interest and a large spec short. That should affect your hedging thoughts for now. Wheat up 1 1/2 to 422 1/2 and trying to base. Beans off 7 1/4 to 946 with a solid late bounce. Be interested if any rally tomorrow can gain traction. Rice had a big spread roll today, giving up a nickel to 1005. Dow off 136 to 20433 and bonds continue the rally to 155.05. Financial markets are telling us that no one is afraid of Trump really getting the interest rate train rolling in the near term. I don't buy it, buy must be prudent fading it.
4/17
Long weekend and more recognition of cash situation. Corn loses 4 1/2 to 366 1/2. Wheat getting it on the chin, down 8 3/4 to 421. Beans tried to rally, but also closed off 2 1/4 to 953 1/4. Grains are all getting some significant measure of spec short open interest, so you have to be prepared for some up swings, but the world is awash in protein. Not a new story. Rice loses 7 to 1010, in a market that was searching for a seller early. Looks like one was found. Dow gets thru another weekend, so rally of 155 to 20,569. Bonds slipped 17 to 153.15.
Long weekend and more recognition of cash situation. Corn loses 4 1/2 to 366 1/2. Wheat getting it on the chin, down 8 3/4 to 421. Beans tried to rally, but also closed off 2 1/4 to 953 1/4. Grains are all getting some significant measure of spec short open interest, so you have to be prepared for some up swings, but the world is awash in protein. Not a new story. Rice loses 7 to 1010, in a market that was searching for a seller early. Looks like one was found. Dow gets thru another weekend, so rally of 155 to 20,569. Bonds slipped 17 to 153.15.
4/12
Bean technical trade higher, plus 8 1/2 to 947 3/4. There is some tech room to run here, and Brazil seems to be holding their beans tight to the vest for now. Export sales might carry extra weight tomorrow. Wheat closed unchanged, 433 1/4 and corn gained 2 1/2 to 369. Rice couldn't get thru resistance again, and a late seller took it down 8 1/2 to 1018. Bonds up a tic at 153, and dow slips77 to 20,516. I cant see the bonds holding this rally and the dow not running into some powerful headwinds, and lets not forget, the big money goes to the bonds when it wants to hide.
Bean technical trade higher, plus 8 1/2 to 947 3/4. There is some tech room to run here, and Brazil seems to be holding their beans tight to the vest for now. Export sales might carry extra weight tomorrow. Wheat closed unchanged, 433 1/4 and corn gained 2 1/2 to 369. Rice couldn't get thru resistance again, and a late seller took it down 8 1/2 to 1018. Bonds up a tic at 153, and dow slips77 to 20,516. I cant see the bonds holding this rally and the dow not running into some powerful headwinds, and lets not forget, the big money goes to the bonds when it wants to hide.
4/11
Report didn't throw off any real surprises other than a little soft on the wheat and friendly to rice. Corn settled off 1/2 to 366 1/2 and beans off 2 1/2 to 939 1/4. Wheat rallied 4 1/2 to 433 1/4. Rice unchanged, 1026 1/2. All the grains shrugged off what really is long term bearish domestic and global numbers today, and beans looking to turn around to the upside tonight. They have been down long enough to have all the techies foaming to buy. Something to monitor. Dow off 5 to 20,593 and bonds up another point 06 to 152.31. I'm blown away by the bond rally, and am hurting to explain it, but it exists all the same. I'm glad I bought puts instead of outright sales, but wish I'd done neither.
Report didn't throw off any real surprises other than a little soft on the wheat and friendly to rice. Corn settled off 1/2 to 366 1/2 and beans off 2 1/2 to 939 1/4. Wheat rallied 4 1/2 to 433 1/4. Rice unchanged, 1026 1/2. All the grains shrugged off what really is long term bearish domestic and global numbers today, and beans looking to turn around to the upside tonight. They have been down long enough to have all the techies foaming to buy. Something to monitor. Dow off 5 to 20,593 and bonds up another point 06 to 152.31. I'm blown away by the bond rally, and am hurting to explain it, but it exists all the same. I'm glad I bought puts instead of outright sales, but wish I'd done neither.
4/10
Monday didn't bring many surprises. Corn short got a little overextended, and bounce to 367 was good for 7 1/2 cents. Same story in wheat, up 4 3/4 to 428 3/4. Pure order flow, with people trying to attach news for the justification. Beans stall in front of the report, off 1/4 to 941 3/4. Rice fighting against some solid resistance but still gain 3 1/2 to end at 1026 1/2. Financials just churning as they pull vol from the options, dow off 1 at 20,598 and bonds up 9 to 151.25. Report Tuesday not expected to be anything of substance.
Monday didn't bring many surprises. Corn short got a little overextended, and bounce to 367 was good for 7 1/2 cents. Same story in wheat, up 4 3/4 to 428 3/4. Pure order flow, with people trying to attach news for the justification. Beans stall in front of the report, off 1/4 to 941 3/4. Rice fighting against some solid resistance but still gain 3 1/2 to end at 1026 1/2. Financials just churning as they pull vol from the options, dow off 1 at 20,598 and bonds up 9 to 151.25. Report Tuesday not expected to be anything of substance.
4/7
Corn tried to find a base. off 1 1/4 to 359 1/2. Pretty big spec short as well. We might want to consider some form of a put call trade next week on heavily hedged cash positions. Wheat up 3/4 to 424 and big spec short there as well. Different contract specs though, so a different approach probably called for. Beans up 1/2 to 942. World is still a glut of protein and everyone counting on one buyer. A savvy buyer at that. Rice up another nickel to 1023 and commitments of traders showing one of the big long term shorts realizing the easy carry money might be gone in the near future. Dow recovers 140 points to settle off only 6 at 20,599. Bonds give up over a point and a half rally to close 7 lower, 151.16.. I think the world is nervous, but glad there is finally a global leader that will no longer tolerate bad actors, wherever they may be.
Corn tried to find a base. off 1 1/4 to 359 1/2. Pretty big spec short as well. We might want to consider some form of a put call trade next week on heavily hedged cash positions. Wheat up 3/4 to 424 and big spec short there as well. Different contract specs though, so a different approach probably called for. Beans up 1/2 to 942. World is still a glut of protein and everyone counting on one buyer. A savvy buyer at that. Rice up another nickel to 1023 and commitments of traders showing one of the big long term shorts realizing the easy carry money might be gone in the near future. Dow recovers 140 points to settle off only 6 at 20,599. Bonds give up over a point and a half rally to close 7 lower, 151.16.. I think the world is nervous, but glad there is finally a global leader that will no longer tolerate bad actors, wherever they may be.
4/6
Market softened today, with corn down 4 , 360 3/4 and wheat off 6 1/2 to 423 1/4. Beans slip 2 3/4 to 941 1/2. Rice up 1/2 to 1018. Dow up 28 to 20,605 and bonds up7 tics, 151.23. News of the night is President Trump hitting Syrian bases. Market is showing almost no reaction, with the grains within a couple cents of unchanged, dow off 60 and bonds up less than 1/2 point. Almost wonder if the big drop in the dow yesterday came from some of those DC leaks we keep hearing about. I think the world is on notice there is a new sheriff in town, and most of the world seems glad of it. I would expect Assad to seek Soviet interference, just as North Korea is counting on China. Interesting that China is in town during the strike. There will be no doubt that Putin and Trump are speaking now, and also probably a good thing. Reagan started this way in a sense, making sure the "little punks" of the world knocked off their nonsense.
Market softened today, with corn down 4 , 360 3/4 and wheat off 6 1/2 to 423 1/4. Beans slip 2 3/4 to 941 1/2. Rice up 1/2 to 1018. Dow up 28 to 20,605 and bonds up7 tics, 151.23. News of the night is President Trump hitting Syrian bases. Market is showing almost no reaction, with the grains within a couple cents of unchanged, dow off 60 and bonds up less than 1/2 point. Almost wonder if the big drop in the dow yesterday came from some of those DC leaks we keep hearing about. I think the world is on notice there is a new sheriff in town, and most of the world seems glad of it. I would expect Assad to seek Soviet interference, just as North Korea is counting on China. Interesting that China is in town during the strike. There will be no doubt that Putin and Trump are speaking now, and also probably a good thing. Reagan started this way in a sense, making sure the "little punks" of the world knocked off their nonsense.
4/5
Choppy day in corn, ending up 1 3/4 at 364 3/4. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 429 3/4. Beans get a bounce of 6 1/2 cents to 944 1/4. Pretty tough read, but there are some SA weather stories and a tired seller for now. Rice up 10 1/2 to 1017 1/2 and nearing some technical areas that need to cap this rally, or there will be a bit of a gap to cleanout stubborn shorts. Dow lost a 200 point rally to end down 57 tics, 20,577. Bonds off 5 to 151.16. Fed talking about lightening the balance sheet a little sooner than most would like, and the market reaction is very much unknown. If the fed isn't buying as much debt, the market will want more interest to take it on, and that is money that would otherwise be allocated to equities.
Choppy day in corn, ending up 1 3/4 at 364 3/4. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 429 3/4. Beans get a bounce of 6 1/2 cents to 944 1/4. Pretty tough read, but there are some SA weather stories and a tired seller for now. Rice up 10 1/2 to 1017 1/2 and nearing some technical areas that need to cap this rally, or there will be a bit of a gap to cleanout stubborn shorts. Dow lost a 200 point rally to end down 57 tics, 20,577. Bonds off 5 to 151.16. Fed talking about lightening the balance sheet a little sooner than most would like, and the market reaction is very much unknown. If the fed isn't buying as much debt, the market will want more interest to take it on, and that is money that would otherwise be allocated to equities.
4/4
Corn bounce ran out of breath, off 4 3/4 to 363. Wheat down 3/4 to 427. Beans off 1/2 at 937 3/4, so the break ran out of steam on that front for now. Meal was a little higher. Rice unchanged at 10.07, and a good amount of volume traded since the report. I think the boys waiting for a few more cents of carry to roll might get caught with their hand in the cookie jar this time. Big short sure seems like he doesn't intend to be the bears sponsor for much longer. Dull day lets the dow creep up 44 to 20,634 and the bonds were listless off 3 tics to 151.21. Spent the evening at a farm bureau sponsored solar farm meeting, and learned a few things. If that's in anyone's wheelhouse, I'd be happy to give my observations.
Corn bounce ran out of breath, off 4 3/4 to 363. Wheat down 3/4 to 427. Beans off 1/2 at 937 3/4, so the break ran out of steam on that front for now. Meal was a little higher. Rice unchanged at 10.07, and a good amount of volume traded since the report. I think the boys waiting for a few more cents of carry to roll might get caught with their hand in the cookie jar this time. Big short sure seems like he doesn't intend to be the bears sponsor for much longer. Dull day lets the dow creep up 44 to 20,634 and the bonds were listless off 3 tics to 151.21. Spent the evening at a farm bureau sponsored solar farm meeting, and learned a few things. If that's in anyone's wheelhouse, I'd be happy to give my observations.
4/3
Corn bounced 3 1/2 to 367 3/4 and wheat up 1 1/4 to 427 3/4. Vol got pushed down early in the may bean puts, but sellers kept coming, leaving beans off 7 3/4 at 938 1/4 on the close. Like the bounce trade here, especially with meal holding pretty well, but not a good time to bee too stubborn, as we still do have a glut of protein in the world, and now government numbers are confirming it. Rice backs off from the highs, but still up 17 1/2 to 1007. We are moving some volume up here. Dow bounces to close only down 14, now 20,590. Bonds up 29 to 151.24 as the yield curve continues to flatten. Daily bond slow stochastics look to be rolling over, so be careful up here.
Corn bounced 3 1/2 to 367 3/4 and wheat up 1 1/4 to 427 3/4. Vol got pushed down early in the may bean puts, but sellers kept coming, leaving beans off 7 3/4 at 938 1/4 on the close. Like the bounce trade here, especially with meal holding pretty well, but not a good time to bee too stubborn, as we still do have a glut of protein in the world, and now government numbers are confirming it. Rice backs off from the highs, but still up 17 1/2 to 1007. We are moving some volume up here. Dow bounces to close only down 14, now 20,590. Bonds up 29 to 151.24 as the yield curve continues to flatten. Daily bond slow stochastics look to be rolling over, so be careful up here.
3/31
Fridays reports came in pretty much as expected, with a little extra juice in the bean acreage. Corn short interest showed their weak spots after a 90 million acre number and bounced 6 3/4 to 364 1/4. Wheat followed suit, up 5 1/2 to 426 1/2. Beans put up an 89.5 acreage estimate and proceeded to drop 17 to 946. Rice was slightly more friendly than my estimates and rallied a nickel to 989 1/2. Dow off 56 in a pretty nothing day to 20,604 and same story for the bonds, up 10 tics to 150.27. Wouldn't be too surprised at a rally Monday with new monthly money flowing in and crude acting like it has a better than expected floor.
Fridays reports came in pretty much as expected, with a little extra juice in the bean acreage. Corn short interest showed their weak spots after a 90 million acre number and bounced 6 3/4 to 364 1/4. Wheat followed suit, up 5 1/2 to 426 1/2. Beans put up an 89.5 acreage estimate and proceeded to drop 17 to 946. Rice was slightly more friendly than my estimates and rallied a nickel to 989 1/2. Dow off 56 in a pretty nothing day to 20,604 and same story for the bonds, up 10 tics to 150.27. Wouldn't be too surprised at a rally Monday with new monthly money flowing in and crude acting like it has a better than expected floor.
3/30
Last day of the build up to the report. Corn off a penny to 357 1/2. Wheat cant keep the rally going, off 4 1/2 to 421. Beans leak another 6 to 963. Rice off 2 with the roll starting, 984 1/2. Tomorrow brings our first glimpse into planting intentions. Three things I would note. We have started planting early, so that gives more time to plant more acres. If we really lose as many wheat acres as some are calling for, I have to believe those acres will mostly find another crop. I have seen some pretty significant variance from early predictions, so don't count this number as gospel. Dow up 59 to 20,660 and bonds slip 22 to 150.17.
Last day of the build up to the report. Corn off a penny to 357 1/2. Wheat cant keep the rally going, off 4 1/2 to 421. Beans leak another 6 to 963. Rice off 2 with the roll starting, 984 1/2. Tomorrow brings our first glimpse into planting intentions. Three things I would note. We have started planting early, so that gives more time to plant more acres. If we really lose as many wheat acres as some are calling for, I have to believe those acres will mostly find another crop. I have seen some pretty significant variance from early predictions, so don't count this number as gospel. Dow up 59 to 20,660 and bonds slip 22 to 150.17.
3/29
A day closer to Fridays report and month end. Corn up 3/4 to 358 1/2. Wheat struggled, but ended up a penny at 425 1/2. Beans off another 3 to 969 and an ugly settle for as boring as it was. Rice back up to 986 1/2, gaining 11 without much of a fight. Exports tomorrow, and it would be nice to see some more solid numbers, but things have been pretty quiet in the new business section. Dow backs up 24 to 20,601 and the bonds gain 14 to 151.07. Nothing to report there. Still believe if the dow holds in here, the bonds are toppy. Flight to quality risk is clearly on with the EU/Brexit fears in the news.
A day closer to Fridays report and month end. Corn up 3/4 to 358 1/2. Wheat struggled, but ended up a penny at 425 1/2. Beans off another 3 to 969 and an ugly settle for as boring as it was. Rice back up to 986 1/2, gaining 11 without much of a fight. Exports tomorrow, and it would be nice to see some more solid numbers, but things have been pretty quiet in the new business section. Dow backs up 24 to 20,601 and the bonds gain 14 to 151.07. Nothing to report there. Still believe if the dow holds in here, the bonds are toppy. Flight to quality risk is clearly on with the EU/Brexit fears in the news.
3/28
Tuesday has nothing to get excited about, with only position squaring before the report. Corn gains a couple cents to 357 3/4, while bottom feeders put wheat up 3 3/4 to 424 1/2. Beans cant do anything and close up 1/2 cent, 972. Rice slips a nickel with some early spread roll, 975 1/2 and a solid bid underneath. Dow ran out of selling, bouncing 128 to end 20,625 and bonds ran out of buying, down 22, 150.25. Brexit will come into focus, so be ginger with your equity and bond risks for a few days.
Tuesday has nothing to get excited about, with only position squaring before the report. Corn gains a couple cents to 357 3/4, while bottom feeders put wheat up 3 3/4 to 424 1/2. Beans cant do anything and close up 1/2 cent, 972. Rice slips a nickel with some early spread roll, 975 1/2 and a solid bid underneath. Dow ran out of selling, bouncing 128 to end 20,625 and bonds ran out of buying, down 22, 150.25. Brexit will come into focus, so be ginger with your equity and bond risks for a few days.
3/27
Couldn't muster any bullish stories out of the weekend, so the slide in grains continue. Corn put on the best showing, only down 1/2 to 355 3/4. Wheat drops another 4 to 420 3/4, and drawing out some bottom pickers by my guess. Oats and meal both weaker and that didn't help anything. Beans off 4 cents to 971 1/2. Rice traded good volume and a wider range, up 2 1/2 to 980 1/2. Heat in India making the rounds. Dow off 78 after putting in a 140 point rally from the lows, 20,497 while bonds settle middle of the range at 151.15, up 12 tics.
Couldn't muster any bullish stories out of the weekend, so the slide in grains continue. Corn put on the best showing, only down 1/2 to 355 3/4. Wheat drops another 4 to 420 3/4, and drawing out some bottom pickers by my guess. Oats and meal both weaker and that didn't help anything. Beans off 4 cents to 971 1/2. Rice traded good volume and a wider range, up 2 1/2 to 980 1/2. Heat in India making the rounds. Dow off 78 after putting in a 140 point rally from the lows, 20,497 while bonds settle middle of the range at 151.15, up 12 tics.
3/24
Corn catches its breath only losing 1/2 to 356 1/4. Wheat had a minor bounce up 3 3/4 to 424 3/4. The weight of spec longs finally hit home in the beans, falling 15 1/4 to 975 3/4. Open interest still has a lot of work to do. Rice pushed below the 980 strike late in the day, settling off 7 cents to 978. Another weekend of weather stories for SA, and next week presents us with an important government report. Dow settled in the middle of a 200 point range, off 13 at 20,575. Figured they would work the 100 upside, but a little surprised they would work the bottom as well. Opens the door a little wider for Sunday night. Dow up 18 to end the week at 151.03. Quite a two week bond rally.
Corn catches its breath only losing 1/2 to 356 1/4. Wheat had a minor bounce up 3 3/4 to 424 3/4. The weight of spec longs finally hit home in the beans, falling 15 1/4 to 975 3/4. Open interest still has a lot of work to do. Rice pushed below the 980 strike late in the day, settling off 7 cents to 978. Another weekend of weather stories for SA, and next week presents us with an important government report. Dow settled in the middle of a 200 point range, off 13 at 20,575. Figured they would work the 100 upside, but a little surprised they would work the bottom as well. Opens the door a little wider for Sunday night. Dow up 18 to end the week at 151.03. Quite a two week bond rally.
3/23
How shall we start this? Another feeble day in the grains, with rice bucking the trend. Corn off 2 to 356 3/4, and wheat down a penny and two bits to 421. Beans rolling over, as the calendar was too hard to overcome and the 31st is just too far away. 991, minus 8 3/4 and sickly thru the whole day even with positive exports. Has anyone heard that there might be too much protein in the world? Rice up 7 to 985 and whoever spent the 20K in April options wants you to know he meant it. Guess we will see tomorrows closing dance for the confirmation. Dow gives up a hundred point rally to close 20,588, off 8. Thing to remember is for Friday now there is a hundred points of air to play with. Bonds played a one point range with nothing to show at the end closing off 8 tics, 150.17
How shall we start this? Another feeble day in the grains, with rice bucking the trend. Corn off 2 to 356 3/4, and wheat down a penny and two bits to 421. Beans rolling over, as the calendar was too hard to overcome and the 31st is just too far away. 991, minus 8 3/4 and sickly thru the whole day even with positive exports. Has anyone heard that there might be too much protein in the world? Rice up 7 to 985 and whoever spent the 20K in April options wants you to know he meant it. Guess we will see tomorrows closing dance for the confirmation. Dow gives up a hundred point rally to close 20,588, off 8. Thing to remember is for Friday now there is a hundred points of air to play with. Bonds played a one point range with nothing to show at the end closing off 8 tics, 150.17
3/22
Another feeble day in the grains, with corn off 2 1/2 to 358 3/4, and wheat off 4 1/4 to 422 1/4. Beans give up 1 3/4 to 999 3/4. Rice bucks the trend, up 1 to 978. Export sales were solid across the board to me, with meal shipments very strong. Bean chart is looking tenuous and needs to hold within this nickel. Exports did give the bulls something to lean on. Lets see if they do.. I would still worry about how much of a bounce is possible in front of the 31st report. Dow trying to lay down a base from Tuesdays break, off 31 at 20,596 while the bonds are near the higher side of my chart if the dow does in fact hold, 150.25, plus 28.
Another feeble day in the grains, with corn off 2 1/2 to 358 3/4, and wheat off 4 1/4 to 422 1/4. Beans give up 1 3/4 to 999 3/4. Rice bucks the trend, up 1 to 978. Export sales were solid across the board to me, with meal shipments very strong. Bean chart is looking tenuous and needs to hold within this nickel. Exports did give the bulls something to lean on. Lets see if they do.. I would still worry about how much of a bounce is possible in front of the 31st report. Dow trying to lay down a base from Tuesdays break, off 31 at 20,596 while the bonds are near the higher side of my chart if the dow does in fact hold, 150.25, plus 28.
3/21
Wheat loses another 3 3/4 to 426 1/2 with no real bull stories anywhere in the globe to hang your hat on. SA corn crop is getting bigger, corn planters hitting fields in the south, and bankers looking for funds are not bullish things. Corn down to 361 1/4, off 2 1/4. Beans just tired of breaking for now, gaining 2 at the end of the day, 1001 1/2. Rice slips to 977, off 8 1/2 and making someone wonder why they blew $20K last week. 980 calls don't expire until Friday, don't forget. A tremendously tedious financial market woke up today, but the bonds did give us plenty of notice. 149.29 today, plus 29 for the day and a long way from the sub 147 area pre Yellen interest rate move. Dow off 241 to 20,627. This takes away over a month of work in a day, and sets a table for more ugliness. Might just get a better opportunity on long term rates in the very near term. Crude is back at 48, and 42 is a target. If we get that, our big spec bean will be nauseous. Ten days might be too long a time to wait for the next government intervention.
Wheat loses another 3 3/4 to 426 1/2 with no real bull stories anywhere in the globe to hang your hat on. SA corn crop is getting bigger, corn planters hitting fields in the south, and bankers looking for funds are not bullish things. Corn down to 361 1/4, off 2 1/4. Beans just tired of breaking for now, gaining 2 at the end of the day, 1001 1/2. Rice slips to 977, off 8 1/2 and making someone wonder why they blew $20K last week. 980 calls don't expire until Friday, don't forget. A tremendously tedious financial market woke up today, but the bonds did give us plenty of notice. 149.29 today, plus 29 for the day and a long way from the sub 147 area pre Yellen interest rate move. Dow off 241 to 20,627. This takes away over a month of work in a day, and sets a table for more ugliness. Might just get a better opportunity on long term rates in the very near term. Crude is back at 48, and 42 is a target. If we get that, our big spec bean will be nauseous. Ten days might be too long a time to wait for the next government intervention.
3/20
Wheat just has no bounce, and friendly weather over the weekend allowed for a 6 cent drop back to 430 1/4. Corn followed suit off 4 to 363 1/2. Talk of a Brazil ethanol tariff coming on board dampens corn demand. Beans just chop and end up off 1/2 at 999 1/2, and again meal is the weak leg. We are slowly beginning to realize that the world is a glut of protein, and everyone who can grow beans in the world is upping the ante. Rice off 6 , 985 1/2 with thoughts that we will never sell to Iraq again. Never is a long time. Buyer is a seller who is tired of being short by my read. Pretty dead day in the dow with all eyes on capital hill testimony and ends up 5 to 20,868. Bonds up another 18 to 149. Might have a point left in it, but I would be thinking about locking up long term debt here if you have that flexibility.
Wheat just has no bounce, and friendly weather over the weekend allowed for a 6 cent drop back to 430 1/4. Corn followed suit off 4 to 363 1/2. Talk of a Brazil ethanol tariff coming on board dampens corn demand. Beans just chop and end up off 1/2 at 999 1/2, and again meal is the weak leg. We are slowly beginning to realize that the world is a glut of protein, and everyone who can grow beans in the world is upping the ante. Rice off 6 , 985 1/2 with thoughts that we will never sell to Iraq again. Never is a long time. Buyer is a seller who is tired of being short by my read. Pretty dead day in the dow with all eyes on capital hill testimony and ends up 5 to 20,868. Bonds up another 18 to 149. Might have a point left in it, but I would be thinking about locking up long term debt here if you have that flexibility.
3/17
Corn finds another penny and a half to 367 1/2.Wheat up a quarter to 436 1/4. Beans settle off 1 1/2 to $10 even, and rice up another 8 1/2 to 991 1/2. First thought is that the grains really didn't respond well at all to export shipments. Corn had stellar numbers and we close right at march 9 prices. Soviet /turkey issues in the wheat, and we are off 4 from the 9th anyway. Quite acceptable bean sales and ships, with outsized meal business, which frankly surprised me, and beans are 11 lower than the 9th report settle. Rice is 21 higher. What it all means to me is we are prepping for what could be a bearish grains report, a friendly rice report. As you have all surely heard me say by now, America is no longer the supermarket to the world, we are its call option. Export sales are showing everyone needs short term product, and futures show we have enough to give, plus we are about to eat some decay in the grains, and in the rice, the world is starting to come to terms that they may need the call after all .
Corn finds another penny and a half to 367 1/2.Wheat up a quarter to 436 1/4. Beans settle off 1 1/2 to $10 even, and rice up another 8 1/2 to 991 1/2. First thought is that the grains really didn't respond well at all to export shipments. Corn had stellar numbers and we close right at march 9 prices. Soviet /turkey issues in the wheat, and we are off 4 from the 9th anyway. Quite acceptable bean sales and ships, with outsized meal business, which frankly surprised me, and beans are 11 lower than the 9th report settle. Rice is 21 higher. What it all means to me is we are prepping for what could be a bearish grains report, a friendly rice report. As you have all surely heard me say by now, America is no longer the supermarket to the world, we are its call option. Export sales are showing everyone needs short term product, and futures show we have enough to give, plus we are about to eat some decay in the grains, and in the rice, the world is starting to come to terms that they may need the call after all .
3/16
Solid export sales underpinned corn today but we only closed up 2 1/2, 366. Wheat was an unchanged trade,436. Beans had reasonable sales and shipments and got back to 1001 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Meal sales large as well, so I'm a bit surprised the rally was muted. More chatter about potential new middle east sales in rice as well as someone betting $20 K in the April 980 calls drove futures up 15 1/2 to 983. Might turn out to be a well placed bet. Dow churned the day away closing 16 lower, 20,882. Bonds set back 13 catching their collective breath after the Yellen trade, 147.28.
Solid export sales underpinned corn today but we only closed up 2 1/2, 366. Wheat was an unchanged trade,436. Beans had reasonable sales and shipments and got back to 1001 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Meal sales large as well, so I'm a bit surprised the rally was muted. More chatter about potential new middle east sales in rice as well as someone betting $20 K in the April 980 calls drove futures up 15 1/2 to 983. Might turn out to be a well placed bet. Dow churned the day away closing 16 lower, 20,882. Bonds set back 13 catching their collective breath after the Yellen trade, 147.28.
3/15
Corn up another 1 1/4 to 363 1/2. Wheat gets more buying to 436, up 5 1/2. Beans tried to rally, but faded off 1 1/4 to 998, still above the double bottom. Rice off 6 but just doesn't want to break hard, 967 1/2. 36 New receipts out of Crop Marketing McGhee. That's way down the river for a full carry receipt. Yellen bumped interest rates, as expected so all the New York finance boys got a green light to buy. Dow up 95 to 20,898. Bonds had the expected relief rally of a point 14 to 148.09.
Corn up another 1 1/4 to 363 1/2. Wheat gets more buying to 436, up 5 1/2. Beans tried to rally, but faded off 1 1/4 to 998, still above the double bottom. Rice off 6 but just doesn't want to break hard, 967 1/2. 36 New receipts out of Crop Marketing McGhee. That's way down the river for a full carry receipt. Yellen bumped interest rates, as expected so all the New York finance boys got a green light to buy. Dow up 95 to 20,898. Bonds had the expected relief rally of a point 14 to 148.09.
3/14
Little bounce in corn, on some china stories and maybe a tired break, 362 1/4, plus 1 1/4. . Wheat unchanged at 430 1/2. Beans put in a double bottom on the continuation chart for now and bounce to 999 1/4, off 6 3/4. Rice slips a dime to 973 1/2 with what appears to be fresh delivery selling on the last day of march. Smaller elevator needing a banker at carry? Worth watching the why on this one. Dow off 40 to 20,803 in another lackluster day in front of tomorrows fed interest rate increase. Bonds up 15 to 146.27 and maybe showing a short term overshoot given that every living breathing mammal in the free world expects an increase in interest rates tomorrow.
Little bounce in corn, on some china stories and maybe a tired break, 362 1/4, plus 1 1/4. . Wheat unchanged at 430 1/2. Beans put in a double bottom on the continuation chart for now and bounce to 999 1/4, off 6 3/4. Rice slips a dime to 973 1/2 with what appears to be fresh delivery selling on the last day of march. Smaller elevator needing a banker at carry? Worth watching the why on this one. Dow off 40 to 20,803 in another lackluster day in front of tomorrows fed interest rate increase. Bonds up 15 to 146.27 and maybe showing a short term overshoot given that every living breathing mammal in the free world expects an increase in interest rates tomorrow.
3/13
New week, same story. Corn off 3 1/4 to 361 while beans hold better, supported by meal strength, 1006, minus 1/2. Wheat got some new selling, and the buyers feel the pain, off a dime on the close, 430 1/2. Rice up 15 to 983 1/2, with short covering and a long taking profits. Several friendly demand stories being passed around, although some of the sales I wont believe until the boat is loaded. Dow closed off 5 at 20,843 in a non-event day waiting on the forgone fed hike this week, while the bonds loose 15 to 146.12 for the same reason.
New week, same story. Corn off 3 1/4 to 361 while beans hold better, supported by meal strength, 1006, minus 1/2. Wheat got some new selling, and the buyers feel the pain, off a dime on the close, 430 1/2. Rice up 15 to 983 1/2, with short covering and a long taking profits. Several friendly demand stories being passed around, although some of the sales I wont believe until the boat is loaded. Dow closed off 5 at 20,843 in a non-event day waiting on the forgone fed hike this week, while the bonds loose 15 to 146.12 for the same reason.
3/10
Crude still stumbling. Corn off 2 3/4 to 364 1/4 and a 4K increase in OI. Wheat loses 3 1/2 to 440 1/2 with an OI bump as well. Beans fade 4 1/2 to 1006 1/2 with meal the firming leg of the crush. Time to watch the charts a little closer in the complex,. Rice dull at 968 1/2, off 1 1/2 with small liquidation and low volume. Moving to June for the dow from here on, plus 20 at 20,848. That's 44 under the march, another contract that understanding the roll can put money in your pocket. Bonds plus 1 settle of 146.27 In a 22 total tic range.
Crude still stumbling. Corn off 2 3/4 to 364 1/4 and a 4K increase in OI. Wheat loses 3 1/2 to 440 1/2 with an OI bump as well. Beans fade 4 1/2 to 1006 1/2 with meal the firming leg of the crush. Time to watch the charts a little closer in the complex,. Rice dull at 968 1/2, off 1 1/2 with small liquidation and low volume. Moving to June for the dow from here on, plus 20 at 20,848. That's 44 under the march, another contract that understanding the roll can put money in your pocket. Bonds plus 1 settle of 146.27 In a 22 total tic range.
3/9
Lots for the market to digest Thursday. Crude quickly back to the low of the range, and a lot of things get to ride on the crude story. Exports as expected, with great cotton shipments as a bonus and solid rice shipments as well. USDA numbers gave the grains nothing to cheer about, although there are more stories brewing below the surface. Corn drops 5 1/4 to 367,with wheat off 3 to 444. Beans get some late buying but still settle off 10 3/4 at 1011. New crop spent some time below $10, and didn't seem to mind it. Lots of global protein folks. Rice carry over didn't move, so up 6 1/2 to 970 with some shorts wanting to leave the dance. Dow up a tic to 20,869 and the story on the financial side, bonds push thru the bottom of the range to 146.26, down 1.03. Fed speak coming, so sell the rumor-(broadcast rubber stamp), and buy the fact? We are going to find out soon if the range will hold or reset.
Lots for the market to digest Thursday. Crude quickly back to the low of the range, and a lot of things get to ride on the crude story. Exports as expected, with great cotton shipments as a bonus and solid rice shipments as well. USDA numbers gave the grains nothing to cheer about, although there are more stories brewing below the surface. Corn drops 5 1/4 to 367,with wheat off 3 to 444. Beans get some late buying but still settle off 10 3/4 at 1011. New crop spent some time below $10, and didn't seem to mind it. Lots of global protein folks. Rice carry over didn't move, so up 6 1/2 to 970 with some shorts wanting to leave the dance. Dow up a tic to 20,869 and the story on the financial side, bonds push thru the bottom of the range to 146.26, down 1.03. Fed speak coming, so sell the rumor-(broadcast rubber stamp), and buy the fact? We are going to find out soon if the range will hold or reset.
3/8
Drifting lower in the grains, as the bull has no new fodder. Corn off 3 3/4 to 372 1/4. Beans lose 3 1/2 to 1021 3/4. Wheat, flavor of the day Monday, off 9 1/2 to 447. Rice bucked the trend with some demand stories circulating, up 11 to 963 1/2. Dow off 45 to 20,868, while the bonds drop 30 to 147.29. Within about a point of the bottom of the post election down trend from December, and I wouldn't be surprised if we peak below to see what stops are there. Watch the volume if we get there, over price. Low volume in the hole equals yet another algo fishing trip on your dime. Exports in the early AM, followed by the latest government musings at 11. Hearing an interesting potential twist to bean number, and will do an internal update if I can get better info.
Drifting lower in the grains, as the bull has no new fodder. Corn off 3 3/4 to 372 1/4. Beans lose 3 1/2 to 1021 3/4. Wheat, flavor of the day Monday, off 9 1/2 to 447. Rice bucked the trend with some demand stories circulating, up 11 to 963 1/2. Dow off 45 to 20,868, while the bonds drop 30 to 147.29. Within about a point of the bottom of the post election down trend from December, and I wouldn't be surprised if we peak below to see what stops are there. Watch the volume if we get there, over price. Low volume in the hole equals yet another algo fishing trip on your dime. Exports in the early AM, followed by the latest government musings at 11. Hearing an interesting potential twist to bean number, and will do an internal update if I can get better info.
3/7
SA crops continue to be reported bigger. If the real falters in the spring, its going to cap our normal spring weather rally with a steel lid. This will be probably the first year in history where the currency forecast is more important than the weather forecast. Grains had small liquidation, and the bio bean oil story is loosing luster rather quickly as global edible oil stocks are showing a build in supply. Corn off 2 1/2 to 376. wheat off 2 to 456 1/2 in sympathy. Nothing in the crush had any love today, beans off 12 to 1025 1/4. Rice drifts a nickel down to 952 1/2 with the path of least resistance for now, as well as a committed bear. Every grain now has a cross section of wide and single direction open interest, yet the door out has not changed. In these conditions, seemingly small changes can have outsized results. I would caution against selling short dated options in anything. Dow off 44 to 20,913 in yet another 100 point non-day, and the bonds slip 7 to 148.27 in another sub one point range. Same advise, don't sell cheap financial options.
SA crops continue to be reported bigger. If the real falters in the spring, its going to cap our normal spring weather rally with a steel lid. This will be probably the first year in history where the currency forecast is more important than the weather forecast. Grains had small liquidation, and the bio bean oil story is loosing luster rather quickly as global edible oil stocks are showing a build in supply. Corn off 2 1/2 to 376. wheat off 2 to 456 1/2 in sympathy. Nothing in the crush had any love today, beans off 12 to 1025 1/4. Rice drifts a nickel down to 952 1/2 with the path of least resistance for now, as well as a committed bear. Every grain now has a cross section of wide and single direction open interest, yet the door out has not changed. In these conditions, seemingly small changes can have outsized results. I would caution against selling short dated options in anything. Dow off 44 to 20,913 in yet another 100 point non-day, and the bonds slip 7 to 148.27 in another sub one point range. Same advise, don't sell cheap financial options.
3/6
Corn down 2 1/4 in pre report grind to 378 1/2. Wheat up a nickel to 458 1/2. Don't read too much into wheat, other than money moving to a new flavor of the day. Beans try a rally and fade, off 1/4 to 1037 1/4. Rice down a penny to 957 1/2 as we again await a march 9 report, as well as some kind of expected non news about the latest Iraq tender. Dow in yet another small range day, closing off 24 to 20,957. Moving to june in the bonds from here on, 149.02 and off 6.
Corn down 2 1/4 in pre report grind to 378 1/2. Wheat up a nickel to 458 1/2. Don't read too much into wheat, other than money moving to a new flavor of the day. Beans try a rally and fade, off 1/4 to 1037 1/4. Rice down a penny to 957 1/2 as we again await a march 9 report, as well as some kind of expected non news about the latest Iraq tender. Dow in yet another small range day, closing off 24 to 20,957. Moving to june in the bonds from here on, 149.02 and off 6.
3/3
Corn up 1 1/4 to 380 3/4 with third day money being placed. Wheat gains only 3/4 of a cent at settle, 453 1/2. Beans up a 1/4 to 1037 1/2. Rice off 3 1/2 to 958 1/2 on a pretty dull day as well. Now we wait until the 9th. Dow in another dull 100 pt day ending off 25, 20,981. Bonds up 5 tics to 150.16 in, wait for it, a dull Friday trading day. I would remind everyone that there are combines running this weekend, just not on this side of the equator. But the end buyer doesn't care where the protein comes from.
Corn up 1 1/4 to 380 3/4 with third day money being placed. Wheat gains only 3/4 of a cent at settle, 453 1/2. Beans up a 1/4 to 1037 1/2. Rice off 3 1/2 to 958 1/2 on a pretty dull day as well. Now we wait until the 9th. Dow in another dull 100 pt day ending off 25, 20,981. Bonds up 5 tics to 150.16 in, wait for it, a dull Friday trading day. I would remind everyone that there are combines running this weekend, just not on this side of the equator. But the end buyer doesn't care where the protein comes from.
3/2
Corn off 2 1/2 to 379 1/2. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 452 3/4. Beans took it on the chin, with informa growing the global numbers across the board, down 14 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Rice off 4 to 962. Dow off 85 to 21,006 and the bonds lose 11 to 150.11 I will note crude weakened today. Is most of the retail sucker money put into the markets?
Corn off 2 1/2 to 379 1/2. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 452 3/4. Beans took it on the chin, with informa growing the global numbers across the board, down 14 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Rice off 4 to 962. Dow off 85 to 21,006 and the bonds lose 11 to 150.11 I will note crude weakened today. Is most of the retail sucker money put into the markets?
3/1
Trumps address was a success by most measures, and the market responded with a pop, up 284to 21,091. Bonds rolled over from the top of the range, losing 2.08 to 150.22. The new hedge fund money hit the grain market, but open interest shows that most of Tuesdays volume was in place to profit from retail lemmings. Corn up 8 1/4 to 382, with wheat up 13 1/4 to 457. Beans up 16 to 1051 3/4, below Tuesdays highs, and massive shipments out of brazil, and the SA crop getting bigger still. Thank god we have a strong REAL. Rice up 9 1/2 on solid buying, but a big iceberg seller at 964 late.
Trumps address was a success by most measures, and the market responded with a pop, up 284to 21,091. Bonds rolled over from the top of the range, losing 2.08 to 150.22. The new hedge fund money hit the grain market, but open interest shows that most of Tuesdays volume was in place to profit from retail lemmings. Corn up 8 1/4 to 382, with wheat up 13 1/4 to 457. Beans up 16 to 1051 3/4, below Tuesdays highs, and massive shipments out of brazil, and the SA crop getting bigger still. Thank god we have a strong REAL. Rice up 9 1/2 on solid buying, but a big iceberg seller at 964 late.
2/28
Rumors make for an exciting bed fellow today, as stories swirled, later disputed by the Whitehouse , that we were going to see substantial changes to the Bio-fuel and ethanol mandates. Corn added 20,000 of new open interest to gain 5 1/2 to 373 3/4. Wheat gained a nickel on liquidation of shorts, 443 3/4. Beans up 13 3/4 to 1035 3/4 but well off early highs. Don't forget that tomorrow brings new spec money into the commodity sector as a whole if you believe the rumor, and I do. Problem is if the new quantity is enough to offset the frontrunners. Rice stronger early, but settles off 6 1/2 to 956 1/2. Seller always has some bullets for the close. Dow off 6 in an ultra dull day in front of the presidential address, while bonds take a peek over Fridays close, but fade back to 10 higher, 152.30. Would be nice to see confirmation over the Friday close, elsewise just near the top of the bond churn.
Rumors make for an exciting bed fellow today, as stories swirled, later disputed by the Whitehouse , that we were going to see substantial changes to the Bio-fuel and ethanol mandates. Corn added 20,000 of new open interest to gain 5 1/2 to 373 3/4. Wheat gained a nickel on liquidation of shorts, 443 3/4. Beans up 13 3/4 to 1035 3/4 but well off early highs. Don't forget that tomorrow brings new spec money into the commodity sector as a whole if you believe the rumor, and I do. Problem is if the new quantity is enough to offset the frontrunners. Rice stronger early, but settles off 6 1/2 to 956 1/2. Seller always has some bullets for the close. Dow off 6 in an ultra dull day in front of the presidential address, while bonds take a peek over Fridays close, but fade back to 10 higher, 152.30. Would be nice to see confirmation over the Friday close, elsewise just near the top of the bond churn.
2/27
Options are put to bed, and first notice is upon us. All the grains but corn were delivered, and in most cases fairly current. We are switching to may futures in the grains tonight. Corn off 2 1/2 to 368 1/4. Big drop in open interest today between liquidation and options expiration. Wheat weak all day, settling 438 3/4, off 9 1/4. The whole bean complex had pretty reasonable deliveries, with beans losing 2 1/4 to 1022. Rice gives up a nickel to 963 on the last day of big volume spread rolls, as we are now current and almost fully delivered. Iraq is in for another tender, but if its like the last several, don't hang your hat on it. Outlook Forum numbers don't paint a bearish picture at all moving forward. About time for some of the other prognosticators to sharpen the pencil on global numbers as well. Dow up another 26 to 20,813, and the bonds slip 19 tics to 152.20.
Options are put to bed, and first notice is upon us. All the grains but corn were delivered, and in most cases fairly current. We are switching to may futures in the grains tonight. Corn off 2 1/2 to 368 1/4. Big drop in open interest today between liquidation and options expiration. Wheat weak all day, settling 438 3/4, off 9 1/4. The whole bean complex had pretty reasonable deliveries, with beans losing 2 1/4 to 1022. Rice gives up a nickel to 963 on the last day of big volume spread rolls, as we are now current and almost fully delivered. Iraq is in for another tender, but if its like the last several, don't hang your hat on it. Outlook Forum numbers don't paint a bearish picture at all moving forward. About time for some of the other prognosticators to sharpen the pencil on global numbers as well. Dow up another 26 to 20,813, and the bonds slip 19 tics to 152.20.
2/24
This was kind of a strange options expiration, as nothing really unexpected or expensive to the short options position player unfolded. Corn gave up 1 1/2 to 364 on 40K positions liquidated. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 431 1/4 giving up 16K of open interest. Beans up 2 and loosing 17K of open interest the day before first intentions. 1013 1/2 settle. Rice seemed like a non event, down 4 1/2 to 942 1/2, but the truth lies in the numbers. Open Interest dropped 300, no big deal, but 568 cash trades were put thru, as well as about 1300 more roll trades in front of first intentions due on Mondays close. Did we get set to have new receipts, two hedgers coming to terms, or old receipts making it into different hands? We will know Monday night. Dow settled off 10 tics to 20,787 in a dull 100 pt trading range, but I would note that the settle was near the top of the range, while bonds seemed to get a little less complacent, up 1. 13 to 153.07. Don't want to read too much into one bond day, as the big boys have gotten better at wider range churn trades, but never forget that its easier to get coverage in the bond trade than the equities. Do you really think we can have a bell shaped yield curve on a sustainable basis? This isn't Europe yet.
This was kind of a strange options expiration, as nothing really unexpected or expensive to the short options position player unfolded. Corn gave up 1 1/2 to 364 on 40K positions liquidated. Wheat off 6 3/4 to 431 1/4 giving up 16K of open interest. Beans up 2 and loosing 17K of open interest the day before first intentions. 1013 1/2 settle. Rice seemed like a non event, down 4 1/2 to 942 1/2, but the truth lies in the numbers. Open Interest dropped 300, no big deal, but 568 cash trades were put thru, as well as about 1300 more roll trades in front of first intentions due on Mondays close. Did we get set to have new receipts, two hedgers coming to terms, or old receipts making it into different hands? We will know Monday night. Dow settled off 10 tics to 20,787 in a dull 100 pt trading range, but I would note that the settle was near the top of the range, while bonds seemed to get a little less complacent, up 1. 13 to 153.07. Don't want to read too much into one bond day, as the big boys have gotten better at wider range churn trades, but never forget that its easier to get coverage in the bond trade than the equities. Do you really think we can have a bell shaped yield curve on a sustainable basis? This isn't Europe yet.
2/23
People started looking for the door, and drop we did. Corn off 5 1/2 to 365 1/2 and 28K of liquidation. Beans off 11 1/4 to 1011 1/2 with an OI drop of 23K. Wheat just faded, off 3 1/4 to 438. Rice up a penny, 947 with the spread roll nearing its end. Dow up 48 to 20,797 in a hundred point range. Bonds up 14 tics to 151.26 in a less than one point range. People are getting complacent in the financials. That never ends well. Tomorrow AM brings more numbers from the USDA outlook, export sales, and options expiration on the close.,
People started looking for the door, and drop we did. Corn off 5 1/2 to 365 1/2 and 28K of liquidation. Beans off 11 1/4 to 1011 1/2 with an OI drop of 23K. Wheat just faded, off 3 1/4 to 438. Rice up a penny, 947 with the spread roll nearing its end. Dow up 48 to 20,797 in a hundred point range. Bonds up 14 tics to 151.26 in a less than one point range. People are getting complacent in the financials. That never ends well. Tomorrow AM brings more numbers from the USDA outlook, export sales, and options expiration on the close.,
2/22
Corn stayed in a tight range again, closing up 1 3/4 to 371. Wheat popped 5 1/4 to 441 1/4 with short open interest liquidation. Beans loose a few players and 3 1/2 cents to 1022 3/4. Rice up 3 to 946 on another day of massive spreading volume. Something smelling fishy in this one. Dow settles up 61 in a hundred point day at 20,749. Bonds churned the bulls and bears today but ended up only 2 tics, 151.12. Outlook forum info leaking out tomorrow, and more Friday along with export sales. Could see some funny moves attributed to options expiration Friday as well.
Corn stayed in a tight range again, closing up 1 3/4 to 371. Wheat popped 5 1/4 to 441 1/4 with short open interest liquidation. Beans loose a few players and 3 1/2 cents to 1022 3/4. Rice up 3 to 946 on another day of massive spreading volume. Something smelling fishy in this one. Dow settles up 61 in a hundred point day at 20,749. Bonds churned the bulls and bears today but ended up only 2 tics, 151.12. Outlook forum info leaking out tomorrow, and more Friday along with export sales. Could see some funny moves attributed to options expiration Friday as well.
2/21
Corn gained a penny to 369 1/4, holding price all day. Wheat off another nickel to 436 with no global stories to lend support. Beans drop6 1/4 to 1026 1/4, looking at the 1020 and $10 put open interest and trying to decide if they need pressured. Rice up 9 1/2 on some truly impressive spread volume again today. Dow up an even 100 to 20,688, and the bonds end 2 tics higher, 151.10. Not a lot of stories after a long weekend, which is probably a good thing.
Corn gained a penny to 369 1/4, holding price all day. Wheat off another nickel to 436 with no global stories to lend support. Beans drop6 1/4 to 1026 1/4, looking at the 1020 and $10 put open interest and trying to decide if they need pressured. Rice up 9 1/2 on some truly impressive spread volume again today. Dow up an even 100 to 20,688, and the bonds end 2 tics higher, 151.10. Not a lot of stories after a long weekend, which is probably a good thing.
2/17
Very few liquidating trades, but without new buying this market will continue to leak. Corn off 5 1/4 to 368 1/4, while wheat looses 6 3/4 to 441. Beans had a very small liquidation and lost 11 1/4 to 1032 1/2. Not too late to price some new crop beans if you can get a decent basis, or lock the basis later. Rice pretty flat with large continued spread roll, 933 1/2. Dow in a 100 tic total day, ending off 6 at 20,588. Pretty good day with a 4 day weekend ahead. Bonds in a continuation bounce, up 14 to 151.08
Very few liquidating trades, but without new buying this market will continue to leak. Corn off 5 1/4 to 368 1/4, while wheat looses 6 3/4 to 441. Beans had a very small liquidation and lost 11 1/4 to 1032 1/2. Not too late to price some new crop beans if you can get a decent basis, or lock the basis later. Rice pretty flat with large continued spread roll, 933 1/2. Dow in a 100 tic total day, ending off 6 at 20,588. Pretty good day with a 4 day weekend ahead. Bonds in a continuation bounce, up 14 to 151.08
2/16
Hope you are starting to notice just how skinny the door gets when you want out of those bean and corn longs. Corn off 5 1/4 to 373 1/2 on pretty good buying getting overwhelmed. Same story in wheat , off 7 to 447 3/4. Beans never could find its feet and fell 17 1/2 to 1043 3/4. Rice off another nickel even with some solid exports to 934. Getting to the bottom of the range here. Dow took a break today, off 29 to 20,594. Bonds regained yesterdays drop to close up 28 tic, 150.26.
Hope you are starting to notice just how skinny the door gets when you want out of those bean and corn longs. Corn off 5 1/4 to 373 1/2 on pretty good buying getting overwhelmed. Same story in wheat , off 7 to 447 3/4. Beans never could find its feet and fell 17 1/2 to 1043 3/4. Rice off another nickel even with some solid exports to 934. Getting to the bottom of the range here. Dow took a break today, off 29 to 20,594. Bonds regained yesterdays drop to close up 28 tic, 150.26.
2/15
New money, and the markets move up. 53,000 more new corn contracts gets a 4 1/2 cent rally to 378 3/4. Get to new highs, you get new selling. Wheat up 5 1/4 to 454 3/4. Beans bump up back near highs with meal strength and another 9,000 new longs as well, 1061 1/4, plus 16 1/4. Rice off 4 1/2 to 939 with big volume on the roll but not much else. Dow up another 141 to 20,623 while the bonds slipped 22 tics to 149.30. I'm going to go against most of the other talking heads out there tonight concerning this being an inflation trade. I have seen it quoted enough to feel the need to bring it up. Bonds at 109, or 99 would be a clear signal that we are trading an aggressive inflation concern. Bonds at 150 mean we really aren't trading an inflation adjustment at all. Simple truth is its easy to run a stock market up for awhile with little new supply coming to the market, but the bonds don't push around so easy. If inflation was a pressing global problem it would be self evident in the bonds, and its not. 200 contracts is a million bushels. Someone bought an EXTRA 53,000 new contracts of corn just today. And 9,000 new contracts of beans extra just for today. This is a money flow market, plain and simple. When the money stops coming in, or wants out, the game is over. Quickly. We just cant put a finger on when that happens.
New money, and the markets move up. 53,000 more new corn contracts gets a 4 1/2 cent rally to 378 3/4. Get to new highs, you get new selling. Wheat up 5 1/4 to 454 3/4. Beans bump up back near highs with meal strength and another 9,000 new longs as well, 1061 1/4, plus 16 1/4. Rice off 4 1/2 to 939 with big volume on the roll but not much else. Dow up another 141 to 20,623 while the bonds slipped 22 tics to 149.30. I'm going to go against most of the other talking heads out there tonight concerning this being an inflation trade. I have seen it quoted enough to feel the need to bring it up. Bonds at 109, or 99 would be a clear signal that we are trading an aggressive inflation concern. Bonds at 150 mean we really aren't trading an inflation adjustment at all. Simple truth is its easy to run a stock market up for awhile with little new supply coming to the market, but the bonds don't push around so easy. If inflation was a pressing global problem it would be self evident in the bonds, and its not. 200 contracts is a million bushels. Someone bought an EXTRA 53,000 new contracts of corn just today. And 9,000 new contracts of beans extra just for today. This is a money flow market, plain and simple. When the money stops coming in, or wants out, the game is over. Quickly. We just cant put a finger on when that happens.
2/14
No new money today, so the markets slipped. Corn off 1 1/4 to 374 1/4. Wheat down 2 3/4 to 449 1/2. Beans started weak and stayed that way, giving up 9 1/4 to 1045. Rice experiencing significant roll to may and old crop hedges are being lifted as well, off a nickel to 943 1/2. For my private clients, make sure to read todays text...Dow continues its upward march to 20,482, plus 99. Yellen spoke today, and its getting evident that we will have a tightening FED. Bonds off 24 to 150.20
No new money today, so the markets slipped. Corn off 1 1/4 to 374 1/4. Wheat down 2 3/4 to 449 1/2. Beans started weak and stayed that way, giving up 9 1/4 to 1045. Rice experiencing significant roll to may and old crop hedges are being lifted as well, off a nickel to 943 1/2. For my private clients, make sure to read todays text...Dow continues its upward march to 20,482, plus 99. Yellen spoke today, and its getting evident that we will have a tightening FED. Bonds off 24 to 150.20
2/13
Corn up a penny to 375 1/2 on 32,000 more new longs. Beans off 4 3/4 to 1054 1/4 on 18,000 new longs. Wheat gains 3 1/4 to 452 1/4 on short covering and a small decrease in OI. Rice drops 8 to 948 1/2 with some reasonable spread roll volume. Corn prices are attracting the possibility that we might not have as many acres switched to beans, but I'm not buying it. Funny money from the funds is a gift to the farmers. I just wish wheat and rice had differently written contracts that allowed the fund boys to pump them up for our benefit as well. Dow continues the upward march to the tune of 20,383, plus 160. Glad to be mostly on the sidelines for now. Bonds in another dull day, off 17 tics to 151.12
Corn up a penny to 375 1/2 on 32,000 more new longs. Beans off 4 3/4 to 1054 1/4 on 18,000 new longs. Wheat gains 3 1/4 to 452 1/4 on short covering and a small decrease in OI. Rice drops 8 to 948 1/2 with some reasonable spread roll volume. Corn prices are attracting the possibility that we might not have as many acres switched to beans, but I'm not buying it. Funny money from the funds is a gift to the farmers. I just wish wheat and rice had differently written contracts that allowed the fund boys to pump them up for our benefit as well. Dow continues the upward march to the tune of 20,383, plus 160. Glad to be mostly on the sidelines for now. Bonds in another dull day, off 17 tics to 151.12
2/10
Corn up a nickel on 45k new longs. 374 1/2. Wheat up 5 1/2 to 449 on short covering and strength across the board. Beans settle 1059, up 8 1/2 with another 24,000 new longs at the party for the time being as well. Rice up 9 to 956 1/2 because ..... Just because for now. Dow ends the week up another 87 to 20,223 and the bonds had a rather dull loss of 9 tics to 151.29.
Corn up a nickel on 45k new longs. 374 1/2. Wheat up 5 1/2 to 449 on short covering and strength across the board. Beans settle 1059, up 8 1/2 with another 24,000 new longs at the party for the time being as well. Rice up 9 to 956 1/2 because ..... Just because for now. Dow ends the week up another 87 to 20,223 and the bonds had a rather dull loss of 9 tics to 151.29.
2/9
Exports good across the board to start the morning, followed by bearish CONAB numbers for SA. WASDE was decent for wheat, not so much for everything else. Beans lose 8 1/4 to 1050 1/2, and corn off a penny and a quarter to 369 1/2. Wheat up 11 to 443 1/2. Beans and meal had new money today, and I would expect more for the weekly close. Rice off 8 to 947 1/2 on decreased expected total exports. Dow up 134 to 20,136 and the bonds did roll over, off 1.03 to 152.06.
Exports good across the board to start the morning, followed by bearish CONAB numbers for SA. WASDE was decent for wheat, not so much for everything else. Beans lose 8 1/4 to 1050 1/2, and corn off a penny and a quarter to 369 1/2. Wheat up 11 to 443 1/2. Beans and meal had new money today, and I would expect more for the weekly close. Rice off 8 to 947 1/2 on decreased expected total exports. Dow up 134 to 20,136 and the bonds did roll over, off 1.03 to 152.06.
2/8
Corn had nearly 25,000 new contracts added to gain only 2 1/4 to 370 3/4. With benign expected changes in tomorrows report, we are hitting resistance. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 432 1/2. Beans up 16 to 1058 3/4 with some looking for bigger changes out of the WASDE numbers than I see. C. O. better fall to the 380-390 range and global stocks need to get beat down as well. Rice selling did in fact shut off, and we bounce 13 to 955 1/2. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Dow stalled and closed down 16 at 20,002 while the bonds continue the upward march to 153.09, up 1.03. This is near the top of my expected range, and I expect either a setback, or the dow to roll over soon.
Corn had nearly 25,000 new contracts added to gain only 2 1/4 to 370 3/4. With benign expected changes in tomorrows report, we are hitting resistance. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 432 1/2. Beans up 16 to 1058 3/4 with some looking for bigger changes out of the WASDE numbers than I see. C. O. better fall to the 380-390 range and global stocks need to get beat down as well. Rice selling did in fact shut off, and we bounce 13 to 955 1/2. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Dow stalled and closed down 16 at 20,002 while the bonds continue the upward march to 153.09, up 1.03. This is near the top of my expected range, and I expect either a setback, or the dow to roll over soon.
2/7
Corn bounced strongly today, up 4 3/4 to 368 1/2, near the top of the range. Wheat rejects the lows and rallied 8 1/4 to 430.3/4. Beans continued yesterdays strength up another 6 3/4 to 1042 3/4. Rice appeared to have an aggressive seller again today, but seemed to run into too much buying on the lows and closes down 6 at 942 1/2, near support and probably shutting off any farmer selling. Don't forget we have a WASDE report Thursday morning. Dow regains its upward march to 20018, up 46. Bonds up 21 to 152.06 and that market has me nervous about equities.. Bond chart looks good to me and the dow seems toppy. If bonds don't roll over in soon, equities just might. We have a lot of air under this dow rally before I see strong hands. Press also cant wait to blame a dow break on the oval office. What a difference a month makes.
Corn bounced strongly today, up 4 3/4 to 368 1/2, near the top of the range. Wheat rejects the lows and rallied 8 1/4 to 430.3/4. Beans continued yesterdays strength up another 6 3/4 to 1042 3/4. Rice appeared to have an aggressive seller again today, but seemed to run into too much buying on the lows and closes down 6 at 942 1/2, near support and probably shutting off any farmer selling. Don't forget we have a WASDE report Thursday morning. Dow regains its upward march to 20018, up 46. Bonds up 21 to 152.06 and that market has me nervous about equities.. Bond chart looks good to me and the dow seems toppy. If bonds don't roll over in soon, equities just might. We have a lot of air under this dow rally before I see strong hands. Press also cant wait to blame a dow break on the oval office. What a difference a month makes.
2/6
Corn continues its slow leak to 363 3/4, off 1 1/2. Wheat support area of 26-28 gave up early and then acted as a ceiling, closing down 7 3/4 to 422 1/2 on plentiful stocks. Beans rallied and got most of Fridays losses back, plus 9 to 1036. More sales and china back in the market after their holiday break. China also put out a note that implies that they will be less supportive of a floor for their production. That's really a corn story by my take. Also, weather stories in SA keep the market churning. I'm getting nothing that defends this price level but its here. Dow held almost all of Fridays gain, only off 14 tics at 19,972. Bonds up a full point and a half to 151.17 and the market is leaning toward maybe only one fed increase next year.
Corn continues its slow leak to 363 3/4, off 1 1/2. Wheat support area of 26-28 gave up early and then acted as a ceiling, closing down 7 3/4 to 422 1/2 on plentiful stocks. Beans rallied and got most of Fridays losses back, plus 9 to 1036. More sales and china back in the market after their holiday break. China also put out a note that implies that they will be less supportive of a floor for their production. That's really a corn story by my take. Also, weather stories in SA keep the market churning. I'm getting nothing that defends this price level but its here. Dow held almost all of Fridays gain, only off 14 tics at 19,972. Bonds up a full point and a half to 151.17 and the market is leaning toward maybe only one fed increase next year.
2/3
I think we had a lot less new money coming to the market this month than people expected, especially from the action on the first. Next week China will be back from their holiday and the hope is they continue buying from us. The beans are questioning that hope. Off 10 1/4 to 1027. That's 50 off 2 weeks ago so farm selling has dried up for now. Corn is still close to the top of its range, 365 1/4, off2 1/4, and there is A LOT of corn that has to find its way out of farmer bins. You figure it out. Wheat loses 4 1/4 to 430 1/4. For you wheat guys that don't have a friend at the Andersons, the quoted price is a whole lot less important than the basis you have been forced to suck wind on all year. Time to think more vertical. Rice up a penny to 954 1/2. Not a lot to report there. Iraq is still in the air, and nobody knows how the political football game will play out, or even when the clock starts and stops. Dow put on a stellar Friday, up 165 to close 19,986, so the bonds had to fade a little., 17 lower at 150.01. Have a great weekend.
I think we had a lot less new money coming to the market this month than people expected, especially from the action on the first. Next week China will be back from their holiday and the hope is they continue buying from us. The beans are questioning that hope. Off 10 1/4 to 1027. That's 50 off 2 weeks ago so farm selling has dried up for now. Corn is still close to the top of its range, 365 1/4, off2 1/4, and there is A LOT of corn that has to find its way out of farmer bins. You figure it out. Wheat loses 4 1/4 to 430 1/4. For you wheat guys that don't have a friend at the Andersons, the quoted price is a whole lot less important than the basis you have been forced to suck wind on all year. Time to think more vertical. Rice up a penny to 954 1/2. Not a lot to report there. Iraq is still in the air, and nobody knows how the political football game will play out, or even when the clock starts and stops. Dow put on a stellar Friday, up 165 to close 19,986, so the bonds had to fade a little., 17 lower at 150.01. Have a great weekend.
2/2
Money flow was light today and the markets showed it. Corn off 3/4 to 367 1/2, and wheat up 3/4 to 434 1/2. Beans gain 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Rice up 1/2 to 953 1/2. Dow up 5 to 19,821 and the bonds are up 4 to 150.18. Financials just being churned and the grains are getting their new money. Don't forget tomorrow is weekend for the chart painters so place your trades accordingly.
Money flow was light today and the markets showed it. Corn off 3/4 to 367 1/2, and wheat up 3/4 to 434 1/2. Beans gain 1/2 to 1037 1/4. Rice up 1/2 to 953 1/2. Dow up 5 to 19,821 and the bonds are up 4 to 150.18. Financials just being churned and the grains are getting their new money. Don't forget tomorrow is weekend for the chart painters so place your trades accordingly.
2/1
Well the new money showed up with an all day vigor. Corn plus 8 1/2 to 368 1/4 and near the top of my expected range. Wheat up 13 to 433 3/4. Beans gain 12 1/4 to 1036 3/4. Rice tender to Iraq was supposedly put out to rebid, and we have the continuing roll leaving rice at 953, off 1/2. Dow up 24 to 19,816 and the bonds slip 13 to 150.14. This is a money flow trade in the grains, and a bit of a fear trade in the financials. Don't overthink it.
Well the new money showed up with an all day vigor. Corn plus 8 1/2 to 368 1/4 and near the top of my expected range. Wheat up 13 to 433 3/4. Beans gain 12 1/4 to 1036 3/4. Rice tender to Iraq was supposedly put out to rebid, and we have the continuing roll leaving rice at 953, off 1/2. Dow up 24 to 19,816 and the bonds slip 13 to 150.14. This is a money flow trade in the grains, and a bit of a fear trade in the financials. Don't overthink it.
1/31
Corn up 2 to 359 3/4, while wheat gets back all of yesterdays loss, up 6 3/4 to 420 3/4. Beans chopped around and settled up 1 3/4 to 1024 1/2. I think there is a hope that with the new month there will be new money coming in to let the rodents off the ship.. Rice break delayed by a day, but it sure got hammered today, off 23 cents to 953 1/2. Must be something negative about the recent tender talks I guess. Put seller picked up near the lows. Bonds up 19 to 150.27 and the Dow drops 96 to 19,792. That's a pretty boring day for them.
Corn up 2 to 359 3/4, while wheat gets back all of yesterdays loss, up 6 3/4 to 420 3/4. Beans chopped around and settled up 1 3/4 to 1024 1/2. I think there is a hope that with the new month there will be new money coming in to let the rodents off the ship.. Rice break delayed by a day, but it sure got hammered today, off 23 cents to 953 1/2. Must be something negative about the recent tender talks I guess. Put seller picked up near the lows. Bonds up 19 to 150.27 and the Dow drops 96 to 19,792. That's a pretty boring day for them.
1/30
Grains rolled over today. Beans lose 26 1/2 to 1022 3/4, with meal busting out to the down side and not much of a net below. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 414. Corn held up best but still off 4 3/4 to settle 357 3/4. Oats take a big fall as well. Rice held well all day, but the resident bear showed to hit the close, down 4 1/2 to 976 1/2. Bonds stall at 150. 08 and the dow tries to recover but still off 124 to end the day at 19,888. Tomorrow is month end, there is a history of Monday- Tuesday back and forth trades, and bean inspections were solid. If we get a bounce from any of the above, I expect it to be short lived. Spec long bean and meal positions are finally getting press. I don't think the door is big enough to let 1/2 of them out.
Grains rolled over today. Beans lose 26 1/2 to 1022 3/4, with meal busting out to the down side and not much of a net below. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 414. Corn held up best but still off 4 3/4 to settle 357 3/4. Oats take a big fall as well. Rice held well all day, but the resident bear showed to hit the close, down 4 1/2 to 976 1/2. Bonds stall at 150. 08 and the dow tries to recover but still off 124 to end the day at 19,888. Tomorrow is month end, there is a history of Monday- Tuesday back and forth trades, and bean inspections were solid. If we get a bounce from any of the above, I expect it to be short lived. Spec long bean and meal positions are finally getting press. I don't think the door is big enough to let 1/2 of them out.
1/27
Corn and beans dressed up some late to 362 1/2, in the corn , off 1 1/4 and almost unchanged in the beans, 1049 1/4. off 1/4. Not an impressive weekly close in the face of large speculative buying. Wheat tipped over and couldn't recover, ending the day off 6 1/2 to 420 1/2. Rice seller couldn't keep that market down as buying showed to push the market up 6 to 981. Some more talk of export business and lower acres in the coming year. Bonds up 19 to 150.12, while the dow faded a little to 20.012. Its Sunday evening now and the markets are surprisingly calm given government action, and the protests ensuing that are sure to follow every government action moving forward. Dow off 50, bonds unchanged, and grains only off a little. Time will tell, but my concern is that this is a calm before the storm. Canada has offered to take any refugees we deem not to accept. That is a bigger gesture than our northern neighbor offered to all the celebrities that were gong to flee to Canada after the election. I propose a swap. We will keep the detainees, and deport all the celebrities who said they were leaving.
Corn and beans dressed up some late to 362 1/2, in the corn , off 1 1/4 and almost unchanged in the beans, 1049 1/4. off 1/4. Not an impressive weekly close in the face of large speculative buying. Wheat tipped over and couldn't recover, ending the day off 6 1/2 to 420 1/2. Rice seller couldn't keep that market down as buying showed to push the market up 6 to 981. Some more talk of export business and lower acres in the coming year. Bonds up 19 to 150.12, while the dow faded a little to 20.012. Its Sunday evening now and the markets are surprisingly calm given government action, and the protests ensuing that are sure to follow every government action moving forward. Dow off 50, bonds unchanged, and grains only off a little. Time will tell, but my concern is that this is a calm before the storm. Canada has offered to take any refugees we deem not to accept. That is a bigger gesture than our northern neighbor offered to all the celebrities that were gong to flee to Canada after the election. I propose a swap. We will keep the detainees, and deport all the celebrities who said they were leaving.
1/26
Good exports for corn, wheat, and meal. Not much new money coming in and the specs aren't winning so much anymore. Corn settles 363 3/4, off 2 1/2. Wheat did find a bid, as the biggest spec short contract, gaining 2 1/2 to 427. Great engine, but with the crappy basis stories I have heard, not a way survive farming. Beans have another lower day to 1049 1/2, off 5 3/4. Rice had its resident bear at work from the beginning firing icebergs and the occasional sell marching order to put trade on its heals. Effective psychologically, and a buyer that needs to do size better understand how to dance with him. 9 lower to end the day at 975. Bonds picked up 10 tics to 149.25 while the dow gained 48 to 20,051.
Good exports for corn, wheat, and meal. Not much new money coming in and the specs aren't winning so much anymore. Corn settles 363 3/4, off 2 1/2. Wheat did find a bid, as the biggest spec short contract, gaining 2 1/2 to 427. Great engine, but with the crappy basis stories I have heard, not a way survive farming. Beans have another lower day to 1049 1/2, off 5 3/4. Rice had its resident bear at work from the beginning firing icebergs and the occasional sell marching order to put trade on its heals. Effective psychologically, and a buyer that needs to do size better understand how to dance with him. 9 lower to end the day at 975. Bonds picked up 10 tics to 149.25 while the dow gained 48 to 20,051.
1/25
Corn had 3 cents strength on the close to 366 1/4. Wheat lost 2 1/4 to 424 1/2. Beans lost 3 1/4 to 1055 1/4. Rice seller made sure there was no continuation of yesterdays rally, off 9 to 984. All the grains are waiting for the next input, and to me that is china on a nice long new-year vacation. No news is not normally good news. Dow continues the march up, 20,003 and 159 higher, which allows the bonds to be down a point 04 to 149.15. Unless we get a newly aggressive fed, I expect some buying under 150.
Corn had 3 cents strength on the close to 366 1/4. Wheat lost 2 1/4 to 424 1/2. Beans lost 3 1/4 to 1055 1/4. Rice seller made sure there was no continuation of yesterdays rally, off 9 to 984. All the grains are waiting for the next input, and to me that is china on a nice long new-year vacation. No news is not normally good news. Dow continues the march up, 20,003 and 159 higher, which allows the bonds to be down a point 04 to 149.15. Unless we get a newly aggressive fed, I expect some buying under 150.
1/24
Better SA weather was the story, along with farmer selling to push corn down 6 1/4 to 363 1/4, and wheat down 6 1/2 to 426 3/4. Back in the pivot range for wheat. Beans pushed up late to get 3/4 higher on the day, 1058 1/2 without much real conviction. Rice short did some covering up 13 to 993 and I think there is something underlying, but the bear does not like to allow continuation, so today will be interesting to watch. Dow continues its march up 109 to 19,844, which allows the bond bears to work downward, off 1.13 to 150.19. Expect another peek under 150.
Better SA weather was the story, along with farmer selling to push corn down 6 1/4 to 363 1/4, and wheat down 6 1/2 to 426 3/4. Back in the pivot range for wheat. Beans pushed up late to get 3/4 higher on the day, 1058 1/2 without much real conviction. Rice short did some covering up 13 to 993 and I think there is something underlying, but the bear does not like to allow continuation, so today will be interesting to watch. Dow continues its march up 109 to 19,844, which allows the bond bears to work downward, off 1.13 to 150.19. Expect another peek under 150.
1/23
Wheat stronger all day on short covering, closing up a nickel at 433 1/4. Corn a little lower all day, rallying back to close off 1/4, 369 1/2. Beans slipped 9 3/4 on rain stories out of SA to 1057 3/4. Rice had iceberg buying to take on the bear, and settled off 2 at 980. A few more receipts cancelled. Dow settled off 10 tics to 19,735 and the bonds popped strongly after rejecting Fridays peek below 150, up 1.07 on the close to 152.
Wheat stronger all day on short covering, closing up a nickel at 433 1/4. Corn a little lower all day, rallying back to close off 1/4, 369 1/2. Beans slipped 9 3/4 on rain stories out of SA to 1057 3/4. Rice had iceberg buying to take on the bear, and settled off 2 at 980. A few more receipts cancelled. Dow settled off 10 tics to 19,735 and the bonds popped strongly after rejecting Fridays peek below 150, up 1.07 on the close to 152.
1/20
Got our week end buying to go with solid export sales numbers. Corn had only a nickel range, but closed up 3 1/2 at 369 3/4. Oats were solid in the front as well. Wheat popped 4 3/4 to 428 1/4. This 426-28 area seems like the pivot. Beans had solid exports but lost 2 3/4 to 1067 1/2. No stories in rice and off a cent and a half at 982. Bonds took a peek under 150 but that break got rejected, rally ensued to settle 9 lower, 150.25. Dow picked up the last 2 days slippage, up 51 to 19,745
Got our week end buying to go with solid export sales numbers. Corn had only a nickel range, but closed up 3 1/2 at 369 3/4. Oats were solid in the front as well. Wheat popped 4 3/4 to 428 1/4. This 426-28 area seems like the pivot. Beans had solid exports but lost 2 3/4 to 1067 1/2. No stories in rice and off a cent and a half at 982. Bonds took a peek under 150 but that break got rejected, rally ensued to settle 9 lower, 150.25. Dow picked up the last 2 days slippage, up 51 to 19,745
1/19
Corn added 12,000 more open interest to gain a penny and a quarter to 366 1/4. Wheat just slipped all day, with no new open interest showing up, closing off 7 1/2 to 423 1/2. No news is bad news. Beans lost 4 3/4 cents to 1070 1/4, again with 10 k more OI. Rice loses 8 1/2 in dull trade to 983 1/2. Export sales in the morning. Bonds closed in the middle of a good sized range, and off 31 to 151.02. Dow bled lower all day, but rallied to close off 41 at 19,694. I think this week has been an evening up in front of tomorrows big event, as well as reactions that might come after what is expected to be an active executive pen.
Corn added 12,000 more open interest to gain a penny and a quarter to 366 1/4. Wheat just slipped all day, with no new open interest showing up, closing off 7 1/2 to 423 1/2. No news is bad news. Beans lost 4 3/4 cents to 1070 1/4, again with 10 k more OI. Rice loses 8 1/2 in dull trade to 983 1/2. Export sales in the morning. Bonds closed in the middle of a good sized range, and off 31 to 151.02. Dow bled lower all day, but rallied to close off 41 at 19,694. I think this week has been an evening up in front of tomorrows big event, as well as reactions that might come after what is expected to be an active executive pen.
1/18
Lots more open interest in corn and beans today, with a lot less to show for the effort. Corn up 10K open interest but the market loses 1/2 cent to 365. Wheat has a drop in open interest, and a drop of 2 1/2 cents to 431. Beans gain another 28,000 open interest, with a strong meal O. I. as well, settling up 5 3/4 to 1075. Beans have gained 80,000 of OI since the report. Rice lost 3 to 992. Almost 500 vs. cash today, so something is stirring under the hood. Dow broke out of the gate, and spent the rest of the day climbing out of the hole, settling off8 tics at 19,735. Bonds gave back all of yesterdays rally, a point 09 loss to 152.01.
Lots more open interest in corn and beans today, with a lot less to show for the effort. Corn up 10K open interest but the market loses 1/2 cent to 365. Wheat has a drop in open interest, and a drop of 2 1/2 cents to 431. Beans gain another 28,000 open interest, with a strong meal O. I. as well, settling up 5 3/4 to 1075. Beans have gained 80,000 of OI since the report. Rice lost 3 to 992. Almost 500 vs. cash today, so something is stirring under the hood. Dow broke out of the gate, and spent the rest of the day climbing out of the hole, settling off8 tics at 19,735. Bonds gave back all of yesterdays rally, a point 09 loss to 152.01.
1/17
Lots of new money in the grains. Corn up 7 to 365 1/2, while wheat closed up 7 1/2 to 433 1/2. Solid pop in corn open interest, and front month oats are getting squeezed. Beans are an interesting story, up 23 cents to 1069 1/4 in the front, but nearly flat in new crop, with strong meal trade, a massive gain in speculative open interest in beans. Tonight beans are off a nickel and the back is weaker than the front. That's a big flag to me. If the market does move higher from here, it will have to be soon and I believe short lived, with a nasty ending. Rice had a nickel gain by the end of the day to 995. Open interest was off so this was the big short trying to reel himself in a little. Hearing Iraq again, as well as several Central American countries that might own up to some of their buying needs that may have been prescribed by NAFTA. Id rather sell it to them honestly, then give it to them under the table. Bonds up a point 01 to 153.10 and the dow lost 89 to 19,743. Crude held but no big upside, and it needs to pop if the grains are going to get anymore new money.
Lots of new money in the grains. Corn up 7 to 365 1/2, while wheat closed up 7 1/2 to 433 1/2. Solid pop in corn open interest, and front month oats are getting squeezed. Beans are an interesting story, up 23 cents to 1069 1/4 in the front, but nearly flat in new crop, with strong meal trade, a massive gain in speculative open interest in beans. Tonight beans are off a nickel and the back is weaker than the front. That's a big flag to me. If the market does move higher from here, it will have to be soon and I believe short lived, with a nasty ending. Rice had a nickel gain by the end of the day to 995. Open interest was off so this was the big short trying to reel himself in a little. Hearing Iraq again, as well as several Central American countries that might own up to some of their buying needs that may have been prescribed by NAFTA. Id rather sell it to them honestly, then give it to them under the table. Bonds up a point 01 to 153.10 and the dow lost 89 to 19,743. Crude held but no big upside, and it needs to pop if the grains are going to get anymore new money.
1/13
Open interest up in all the grains. That is the clear result of all the new money that has flowed into grain trading . Over 20,000 more corn open, 7,000 more wheat, and 13,000 more beans. With each contract worth 5000 bushels, that's a lot of grain for one day in the middle of the winter. Curious where the new fuel will come from next week forward. With all that new open interest, the prices sure didn't seem to care. Corn up a quarter of a cent to 358 1/2. ad wheat down a 1/4 to 426. Clearly and as stated before, we are up against price resistance. Beans up 6 to 1046 1/4. With more beans already sold, its easier for the money boys to push that market around. Meal was quite strong as well. I will remind you that at some point the bean buyers will need to sell or take delivery. That's the way it works, but for now the chart sure looks pretty. Rice backs up 8 to 990, holding most of Thursdays gains. Bonds closed off 10 tics at 152.09, but we traded a full point higher and almost a point lower. Dow was up 29 at 19,832. Next week will be spent on the inauguration build up, and next Friday and then the following Monday will usher in a new president and a flurry of policy changes.
Open interest up in all the grains. That is the clear result of all the new money that has flowed into grain trading . Over 20,000 more corn open, 7,000 more wheat, and 13,000 more beans. With each contract worth 5000 bushels, that's a lot of grain for one day in the middle of the winter. Curious where the new fuel will come from next week forward. With all that new open interest, the prices sure didn't seem to care. Corn up a quarter of a cent to 358 1/2. ad wheat down a 1/4 to 426. Clearly and as stated before, we are up against price resistance. Beans up 6 to 1046 1/4. With more beans already sold, its easier for the money boys to push that market around. Meal was quite strong as well. I will remind you that at some point the bean buyers will need to sell or take delivery. That's the way it works, but for now the chart sure looks pretty. Rice backs up 8 to 990, holding most of Thursdays gains. Bonds closed off 10 tics at 152.09, but we traded a full point higher and almost a point lower. Dow was up 29 at 19,832. Next week will be spent on the inauguration build up, and next Friday and then the following Monday will usher in a new president and a flurry of policy changes.
1/12
One day left for the rebalance, and WASDE is now behind us. Nothing earth moving in corn and wheat, and each is pushing up against resistance. Corn up a penny to 358 1/4 and wheat up to 426 1/4, plus 7 1/2. I will remind you that the fresh money coming in will be mostly spent by tomorrows close. Beans and rice both got bullish reports on the surface, and futures shot up in response. Beans plus 28 3/4 to 1040 1/4 on a carry over drop to 420. That's lower than almost anyone expected, and significantly lower than my personal estimate. Global numbers were less exciting, but that's not this weeks story. Rice up 37 to 998 and thru technical resistance. We all know the bear doesn't like continuation so he should be on his toes tonight and tomorrow. Rice CO had a massive domestic drop in long grain, making the rest of this year a different trade. Dow had a tough morning but found a floor and wound up only down 74, 19,803. Bonds looked like they rolled over today and closed off 7 to 152.19.
One day left for the rebalance, and WASDE is now behind us. Nothing earth moving in corn and wheat, and each is pushing up against resistance. Corn up a penny to 358 1/4 and wheat up to 426 1/4, plus 7 1/2. I will remind you that the fresh money coming in will be mostly spent by tomorrows close. Beans and rice both got bullish reports on the surface, and futures shot up in response. Beans plus 28 3/4 to 1040 1/4 on a carry over drop to 420. That's lower than almost anyone expected, and significantly lower than my personal estimate. Global numbers were less exciting, but that's not this weeks story. Rice up 37 to 998 and thru technical resistance. We all know the bear doesn't like continuation so he should be on his toes tonight and tomorrow. Rice CO had a massive domestic drop in long grain, making the rest of this year a different trade. Dow had a tough morning but found a floor and wound up only down 74, 19,803. Bonds looked like they rolled over today and closed off 7 to 152.19.
1/11
Settles don't reflect the trade today in the grains. Corn off a penny at 357 1/4, and wheat off 8, 418 3/4. Both rallied a nickel to make those settles happen, and I read about a million dollars down the drain in execution costs for a long only, buy on the close trader, if thats what happended. Oats did find a bid, as well as crude north of $52 and gold flirting with $1200. Beans bounce well from their lows with more loss stories out of argy and squaring up infront of tomorrow. 1011 1/2, off 2 1/4. Rice off 6 1/2 going into tomorrow, 961, and it looks like we got down enough to uncover some commercial buying. Bonds still showing strength at plus 9 settle, 152.26 consolidating. Dow up 89 tics to 19,877. Trump set the tone today for future press conferences, and I think we are moving forward quickly with cabinet appointments. This will be an exciting spring. Hope we get some help moving grain, even if its just getting out of the way.
Settles don't reflect the trade today in the grains. Corn off a penny at 357 1/4, and wheat off 8, 418 3/4. Both rallied a nickel to make those settles happen, and I read about a million dollars down the drain in execution costs for a long only, buy on the close trader, if thats what happended. Oats did find a bid, as well as crude north of $52 and gold flirting with $1200. Beans bounce well from their lows with more loss stories out of argy and squaring up infront of tomorrow. 1011 1/2, off 2 1/4. Rice off 6 1/2 going into tomorrow, 961, and it looks like we got down enough to uncover some commercial buying. Bonds still showing strength at plus 9 settle, 152.26 consolidating. Dow up 89 tics to 19,877. Trump set the tone today for future press conferences, and I think we are moving forward quickly with cabinet appointments. This will be an exciting spring. Hope we get some help moving grain, even if its just getting out of the way.
1/10
Pretty dull day today and expected again tomorrow in front of the report. Corn didn't have the open interest gains or price gains, minus 1 3/4 to 358 1/4. Wheat off 1/2 to 426 3/4. Beans caught up the open interest gain I expected yesterday and futures rallied 8 1/2 to 1013 3/4. If you are a client and haven't decided to pull a trigger, call me tomorow morning. Please don't wait this one out. Rice off 1 1/2 to 967 1/2 as the pre-report dance continues. Dow and bonds dull trade as well, 19,788 and off 40 for the dow, while bonds settle off 6 tics to 152.17. Crude needs to find a bid pretty soon if we are going to get any spill over strength.
Pretty dull day today and expected again tomorrow in front of the report. Corn didn't have the open interest gains or price gains, minus 1 3/4 to 358 1/4. Wheat off 1/2 to 426 3/4. Beans caught up the open interest gain I expected yesterday and futures rallied 8 1/2 to 1013 3/4. If you are a client and haven't decided to pull a trigger, call me tomorow morning. Please don't wait this one out. Rice off 1 1/2 to 967 1/2 as the pre-report dance continues. Dow and bonds dull trade as well, 19,788 and off 40 for the dow, while bonds settle off 6 tics to 152.17. Crude needs to find a bid pretty soon if we are going to get any spill over strength.
1/09
And the grain rebalance begins. Corn added over 12,000 contracts across the summer months, only losing in march, but gained only 2 cents to 360. Wheat found 4 to 427 ( best F E ever)and an easier time with 1/4 of the O I gain. Pay attention to that for the 12th. Beans shed some interest but still gained 10 1/2 to 1005 1/4. I have to mull that a little. Some talk about global stocks being lower as the reason to juice the thursday trade.. Just another selling opportunity to me. Rice lower all day, but short wouldn't defend late and we closed up a couple, 969. Bonds got back yesterday quite easily, affirming the base and closing 152.23 as dow slipped 69 to 19,828.
And the grain rebalance begins. Corn added over 12,000 contracts across the summer months, only losing in march, but gained only 2 cents to 360. Wheat found 4 to 427 ( best F E ever)and an easier time with 1/4 of the O I gain. Pay attention to that for the 12th. Beans shed some interest but still gained 10 1/2 to 1005 1/4. I have to mull that a little. Some talk about global stocks being lower as the reason to juice the thursday trade.. Just another selling opportunity to me. Rice lower all day, but short wouldn't defend late and we closed up a couple, 969. Bonds got back yesterday quite easily, affirming the base and closing 152.23 as dow slipped 69 to 19,828.
1/06
Bonds settle off 23 at 151.25, and near the lows of the day. It concerns me a little that we could give back a point and a half rally, but nothing in the action changes my opinion that we are setting a base. You know where you are wrong, and the cost is not too high. Dow up another 76 to 19,897 as the march continues. Looking for a setback sometime soon, as the press is begging for an "i told you so" event to hype, and I would argue that A goofy strong dow is not the market I really care about. I want to see a flourishing mainstreet. Open interest is just not showing up in the grains, and in fact is declining. Monday is suppose to be the start of the heart of fund rebalance, so be on your toes on the 9th. Corn slips 3 1/4 to 358, while wheat gives up 3 to 423 1/4. Beans never stood a chance, off 17 3/4 to 994 3/4, and I can hear the SA combines from here. Port stories will have to suffice for the next bull story. Rice slips 7 1/2 to 967, as the rice bear does not like continuation. NOTES. A new swaps dealer showed up in rice selling 250 by tuesdays close, while the total comercial short is down to under 3300. Meal lost almost $7 on friday, and if you know me you know how much credit I put in protein. Oats lost 8-9 cents across the board, not a steller long term picture for corn, and wheat lost 6500 contracts of open interest in a listless day, verifying this is a short covering rally. Monday bulls better come with big horns and loaded pockets.
Bonds settle off 23 at 151.25, and near the lows of the day. It concerns me a little that we could give back a point and a half rally, but nothing in the action changes my opinion that we are setting a base. You know where you are wrong, and the cost is not too high. Dow up another 76 to 19,897 as the march continues. Looking for a setback sometime soon, as the press is begging for an "i told you so" event to hype, and I would argue that A goofy strong dow is not the market I really care about. I want to see a flourishing mainstreet. Open interest is just not showing up in the grains, and in fact is declining. Monday is suppose to be the start of the heart of fund rebalance, so be on your toes on the 9th. Corn slips 3 1/4 to 358, while wheat gives up 3 to 423 1/4. Beans never stood a chance, off 17 3/4 to 994 3/4, and I can hear the SA combines from here. Port stories will have to suffice for the next bull story. Rice slips 7 1/2 to 967, as the rice bear does not like continuation. NOTES. A new swaps dealer showed up in rice selling 250 by tuesdays close, while the total comercial short is down to under 3300. Meal lost almost $7 on friday, and if you know me you know how much credit I put in protein. Oats lost 8-9 cents across the board, not a steller long term picture for corn, and wheat lost 6500 contracts of open interest in a listless day, verifying this is a short covering rally. Monday bulls better come with big horns and loaded pockets.
1/05
Wheat and corn up on short covering again, while beans took a breather. Open interest isnt telling any of the predicted giant inflow stories so far. Corn up 1 1/2 to 361 1/4. Wheat continued an easier path up, with a bigger short scared, up 7 3/4 to 426 1/4. Dont know when the wheat rally finishes, but dont try to catch the knife on a weak day. Beans 1012 1/2, off 2 3/4. Anyone hear a combine running? Dow off 35 on a see saw day. When we said bonds were basing, I guess we meant it. Wow. Up 1.26 to 152.16.
Wheat and corn up on short covering again, while beans took a breather. Open interest isnt telling any of the predicted giant inflow stories so far. Corn up 1 1/2 to 361 1/4. Wheat continued an easier path up, with a bigger short scared, up 7 3/4 to 426 1/4. Dont know when the wheat rally finishes, but dont try to catch the knife on a weak day. Beans 1012 1/2, off 2 3/4. Anyone hear a combine running? Dow off 35 on a see saw day. When we said bonds were basing, I guess we meant it. Wow. Up 1.26 to 152.16.
1/04
A day delayed, but lots of talk about new fund money, as well as the rebalance for corn and wheat, while beans got a kick from weather stories out of SA. Corn knocking on resistance, up 4 to 359 3/4. Wheat climbed 12 to 418 1/2 , and after a slow start, made the rally look easy. While beans and corn lost open interest today, I might add unexpectedly, wheat gained. This bears watching closely over the next day or two. Beans just didnt have a natural seller and took full advantage, up 20 1/4 to 1015 1/4. Rice gained 12 1/2 to 973, but it will be interesting to see if there is any continuation. The bear has a habit of not allowing for continuations in rice. I will note that commitments show the bear out over his skis, and we all know bears are not good skiers. Another day of basing for the bonds, and the next two will be a good test of longer term debt opinions. Dow up another 58 to 19,856 and Ford is keeping more jobs in the US and not building another Mexican plant. I havent heard this much excitement in american manufacturing and american jobs and american growth in a long time. This simple theory called velocity of money, which the government just cant create very well, is alive and well in the private sector.
A day delayed, but lots of talk about new fund money, as well as the rebalance for corn and wheat, while beans got a kick from weather stories out of SA. Corn knocking on resistance, up 4 to 359 3/4. Wheat climbed 12 to 418 1/2 , and after a slow start, made the rally look easy. While beans and corn lost open interest today, I might add unexpectedly, wheat gained. This bears watching closely over the next day or two. Beans just didnt have a natural seller and took full advantage, up 20 1/4 to 1015 1/4. Rice gained 12 1/2 to 973, but it will be interesting to see if there is any continuation. The bear has a habit of not allowing for continuations in rice. I will note that commitments show the bear out over his skis, and we all know bears are not good skiers. Another day of basing for the bonds, and the next two will be a good test of longer term debt opinions. Dow up another 58 to 19,856 and Ford is keeping more jobs in the US and not building another Mexican plant. I havent heard this much excitement in american manufacturing and american jobs and american growth in a long time. This simple theory called velocity of money, which the government just cant create very well, is alive and well in the private sector.
1/03/17
Bean harvest started in Brazil, and a big crop it will be. 995 settle, off 9 cents. Corn up 3 3/4 to 355 3/4 with steady buying, while wheat is off 1 1/2 to 406 1/2.. Rice tried higher, then lower, but settled off 1/2 at 960 1/2. 400 new bean receipts added and the whole bean complex is delivering nearly current. January rice delivery cycle is all but in the books as well. Dow stumbled but rallied late 78 higher, 19,798. Bonds firmed up to be off 3 tics, 150.18. Some of the talking heads are starting to question if there is much more to this interest rate run. Hard to balance a new budget on big juice payments for the $20 trillion debt thats been rung up on the short term zero money due party.
Bean harvest started in Brazil, and a big crop it will be. 995 settle, off 9 cents. Corn up 3 3/4 to 355 3/4 with steady buying, while wheat is off 1 1/2 to 406 1/2.. Rice tried higher, then lower, but settled off 1/2 at 960 1/2. 400 new bean receipts added and the whole bean complex is delivering nearly current. January rice delivery cycle is all but in the books as well. Dow stumbled but rallied late 78 higher, 19,798. Bonds firmed up to be off 3 tics, 150.18. Some of the talking heads are starting to question if there is much more to this interest rate run. Hard to balance a new budget on big juice payments for the $20 trillion debt thats been rung up on the short term zero money due party.
12/30
Happy new year. Friday saw some moving back to the middle to soften the computer rebalances of the coming month. A rebalance is just the computer recalculating how much as a percentage of any given asset is in an investment portfolio. If a fund has a 70/30 equity balance to bonds, and bonds have borke hard and the eqities have rallied significantly, the rebalance to get back to the original ratio says I will sell some of my equities and buy more of the now cheaper bonds. Same with a grain portfolio. We all know beans are comparatively higher than corn and wheat, so the long only ratio funds will be selling beans and buying corn and wheat. The biggest volume should start around the 9th for 3 to 5 days. As the professional guys already have a firm grasp of what is coming, they will already own much of the inventory need to fufill the roll, so don't try to get too cute waitng to sell mid-month corn or wheat against that rebalance. Corn rallied 2 1/4 to end the year at 352. Wheat gained 3 1/4 to 408. Beans faded 8 3/4 to 1004, and got 100 deliveries put into the system as well. Rice popped 10 1/2 to 961 and deliveries there are current. Rice Receipts have been cancelled showing that the end user is either willing to pay board rates plus 22 cents loadout to not bid the market in cash, or his cash bid is getting no action at this price level and time. Bonds gained over 2 points this week to settle 150.21, while the dow couldnt hold a rally and closed off 39, 19,720. CME closed the NYMEX open outcry floor for good this friday. I understand the volume angle, but there goes another pool of liquidity providers. On a seperate note with the same meaning, Smithfield bought 2 ohio elevators and intends to buy the majority of its grain needs directly from the farmer. Given the exchanges moves to make the farmer a number, the cash market is realizing you are not. Expect this move to happen faster than most expect, and be prepared to adapt.
Happy new year. Friday saw some moving back to the middle to soften the computer rebalances of the coming month. A rebalance is just the computer recalculating how much as a percentage of any given asset is in an investment portfolio. If a fund has a 70/30 equity balance to bonds, and bonds have borke hard and the eqities have rallied significantly, the rebalance to get back to the original ratio says I will sell some of my equities and buy more of the now cheaper bonds. Same with a grain portfolio. We all know beans are comparatively higher than corn and wheat, so the long only ratio funds will be selling beans and buying corn and wheat. The biggest volume should start around the 9th for 3 to 5 days. As the professional guys already have a firm grasp of what is coming, they will already own much of the inventory need to fufill the roll, so don't try to get too cute waitng to sell mid-month corn or wheat against that rebalance. Corn rallied 2 1/4 to end the year at 352. Wheat gained 3 1/4 to 408. Beans faded 8 3/4 to 1004, and got 100 deliveries put into the system as well. Rice popped 10 1/2 to 961 and deliveries there are current. Rice Receipts have been cancelled showing that the end user is either willing to pay board rates plus 22 cents loadout to not bid the market in cash, or his cash bid is getting no action at this price level and time. Bonds gained over 2 points this week to settle 150.21, while the dow couldnt hold a rally and closed off 39, 19,720. CME closed the NYMEX open outcry floor for good this friday. I understand the volume angle, but there goes another pool of liquidity providers. On a seperate note with the same meaning, Smithfield bought 2 ohio elevators and intends to buy the majority of its grain needs directly from the farmer. Given the exchanges moves to make the farmer a number, the cash market is realizing you are not. Expect this move to happen faster than most expect, and be prepared to adapt.
12/29
No bean deliveries, which is a bit of a suprise, but meal and oil make up for it. Rice delivered current and less than 80 now open. My guess is we are waiting on a few more receipts to make the system in rice and beans. Corn recovered 1 1/2 to 349 3/4. Wheat up 3 1/4 to 404 3/4. Some global tenders in play, even if we arent today. Switching to march for beans and rice, with beans ultimately loosing 3 3/4 to 1012 3/4, and rice unchanged at 950 1/2. Bear in rice raised his head, but found a long rifle pointed his way. Sure he will show again tomorrow, but he better bring a bigger boat. Bean story is still more of the same, we have a big brazillian crop,. and normally they get bigger. Dow stayed in a 100 point range and settled off 16 to 19,759. Bonds were dull as well and up 6 to close 149.29. Tomorrow is yearend, and sometimes the last few minutes can get out of hand. I reccomend being in pocket at the close (normal time I believe), just in case they start giving away money.
No bean deliveries, which is a bit of a suprise, but meal and oil make up for it. Rice delivered current and less than 80 now open. My guess is we are waiting on a few more receipts to make the system in rice and beans. Corn recovered 1 1/2 to 349 3/4. Wheat up 3 1/4 to 404 3/4. Some global tenders in play, even if we arent today. Switching to march for beans and rice, with beans ultimately loosing 3 3/4 to 1012 3/4, and rice unchanged at 950 1/2. Bear in rice raised his head, but found a long rifle pointed his way. Sure he will show again tomorrow, but he better bring a bigger boat. Bean story is still more of the same, we have a big brazillian crop,. and normally they get bigger. Dow stayed in a 100 point range and settled off 16 to 19,759. Bonds were dull as well and up 6 to close 149.29. Tomorrow is yearend, and sometimes the last few minutes can get out of hand. I reccomend being in pocket at the close (normal time I believe), just in case they start giving away money.
12/28
None of the grains could hold yesterdays bounce. Corn off 6 3/4 to 348 1/4. Beans and wheat, strongest of yesterday, each lost 8 cents to 1006 3/4 and 401 1/2. Beans held $10 and wheat held $4. Meal and oats both held relatively well. Early reports out of brazil are a big bean crop and getting bigger. I dont want to be around when the first US sales cancellations print, and I see that event is only a matter of time. Rice gave up a nickel to 925, while everyone under the sun expects the seller to attack tomorrow and friday. Starting to wonder who is waiting. Dow drops 101 to 19,775 while bonds gain a point o five to 149.23. Talk about the equity-bond reset can shrink up some if the bonds put on a hero rally these next 2 days. Might be wishful thinking but there might be some "investors" with more of your money than sense. Tomorrow will be first intentions for january beans and rice, so check positions, especially in rice. Jan rice open interest is under receipts registered.
None of the grains could hold yesterdays bounce. Corn off 6 3/4 to 348 1/4. Beans and wheat, strongest of yesterday, each lost 8 cents to 1006 3/4 and 401 1/2. Beans held $10 and wheat held $4. Meal and oats both held relatively well. Early reports out of brazil are a big bean crop and getting bigger. I dont want to be around when the first US sales cancellations print, and I see that event is only a matter of time. Rice gave up a nickel to 925, while everyone under the sun expects the seller to attack tomorrow and friday. Starting to wonder who is waiting. Dow drops 101 to 19,775 while bonds gain a point o five to 149.23. Talk about the equity-bond reset can shrink up some if the bonds put on a hero rally these next 2 days. Might be wishful thinking but there might be some "investors" with more of your money than sense. Tomorrow will be first intentions for january beans and rice, so check positions, especially in rice. Jan rice open interest is under receipts registered.
12/27
Welcome back from christmas. Bulls returned with a vengence. Corn popped 9 1/4 to 355. Wheat shorts got pressed even harder, up 16 to 409 1/2 and still a big spec short. Beans exploded for 25 3/4 to 1014 3/4. Rice did good volume very quietly and found 9 on the close to 930. Today was the easy day for the bulls, but with this being the end of the year, anything can happen. Be prepared to act if the money boys get stupid. Meal lent support to beans , and oats were there for corn/ wheat. Dow was about scratch, 19,876 while bonds resumed their downward march off 18, 148.18
Welcome back from christmas. Bulls returned with a vengence. Corn popped 9 1/4 to 355. Wheat shorts got pressed even harder, up 16 to 409 1/2 and still a big spec short. Beans exploded for 25 3/4 to 1014 3/4. Rice did good volume very quietly and found 9 on the close to 930. Today was the easy day for the bulls, but with this being the end of the year, anything can happen. Be prepared to act if the money boys get stupid. Meal lent support to beans , and oats were there for corn/ wheat. Dow was about scratch, 19,876 while bonds resumed their downward march off 18, 148.18
12/23
Merry Christmas. Dull markets with a downward bias continues. corn off 1 1/2 to 345 3/4. Wheat down another 3 1/2 to 393 1/2 and just a general lack of buying interest. Beans got another strike today, 989, minus 5 1/2. Rice has the same story as wheat, off on lack of buying interest to 921, down 7 1/2. Bonds up 10 in a dull day, since thats our theme, 149.04. Bonds couldnt find 4 bits total range to rub together and settled plus 1, 19,874.
Merry Christmas. Dull markets with a downward bias continues. corn off 1 1/2 to 345 3/4. Wheat down another 3 1/2 to 393 1/2 and just a general lack of buying interest. Beans got another strike today, 989, minus 5 1/2. Rice has the same story as wheat, off on lack of buying interest to 921, down 7 1/2. Bonds up 10 in a dull day, since thats our theme, 149.04. Bonds couldnt find 4 bits total range to rub together and settled plus 1, 19,874.
12/22
Corn stalls to catch its breath, unchanged at 347 1/4. Wheat slips another 2 1/2 to 397. Beans resume the march to the bottom, off another 12 1/4 to 994 1/2. $10 percieved support was only that, percieved. Rice had to test lows at 928 1/2, and settle there. January open interest is now down to manageable. Bonds have a point move all day and settle off 4 at 148.26. Six bits range in the dow and a settle down 18 to 19,873. Plenty of time for a Trump Christmas.
Corn stalls to catch its breath, unchanged at 347 1/4. Wheat slips another 2 1/2 to 397. Beans resume the march to the bottom, off another 12 1/4 to 994 1/2. $10 percieved support was only that, percieved. Rice had to test lows at 928 1/2, and settle there. January open interest is now down to manageable. Bonds have a point move all day and settle off 4 at 148.26. Six bits range in the dow and a settle down 18 to 19,873. Plenty of time for a Trump Christmas.
12/21
Corn off another 3 to 347 1/4. Wheat down 3 3/4 as well, 399 1/2. Beans caught their breath for the moment, 1006 3/4. Rice roll with a seller in tow yields another 9 1/2 cent break to 936 1/2. Bonds got back yesterdays loss, up 17 to 148.30. Dow total range was less than some of the bigger opening minutes we have had, minus 8, 19,891.
Corn off another 3 to 347 1/4. Wheat down 3 3/4 as well, 399 1/2. Beans caught their breath for the moment, 1006 3/4. Rice roll with a seller in tow yields another 9 1/2 cent break to 936 1/2. Bonds got back yesterdays loss, up 17 to 148.30. Dow total range was less than some of the bigger opening minutes we have had, minus 8, 19,891.
12/20
More grain pressure, and with beans going thru several layers of technical support, things were soft. Corn drops another 3 to 350 1/4, while wheat looses another 1 3/4 to 403 1/4. Beans took it on the chin again, off 16 1/4 to 1005 1/4. We have some $10 options in play for friday, but I'm not sure there is enough to matter. We will learn a little more about that with tomorows orderflow. Big rice spead rolls again today, with the flat price dead again, 946. Dow continues its march to 20K, up 62, 19,899. Bonds resumed their drop mode, off 17 to 148.13. More than a little concern that the renewable fuels standards could weaken, and that would be catastrophic in this marketing year.
More grain pressure, and with beans going thru several layers of technical support, things were soft. Corn drops another 3 to 350 1/4, while wheat looses another 1 3/4 to 403 1/4. Beans took it on the chin again, off 16 1/4 to 1005 1/4. We have some $10 options in play for friday, but I'm not sure there is enough to matter. We will learn a little more about that with tomorows orderflow. Big rice spead rolls again today, with the flat price dead again, 946. Dow continues its march to 20K, up 62, 19,899. Bonds resumed their drop mode, off 17 to 148.13. More than a little concern that the renewable fuels standards could weaken, and that would be catastrophic in this marketing year.
12/19
As stated friday, market revolves around S A, and they got a little rain. Corn off 3 at 353 1/4 and wheat off 4 1/4 to 405 . Reports of cold weather damage in wheat belt trumped by bean sell off of 15 1/4 cents to 1021 1/2. Might be time to stop worring about the bean rally that you missed and get serious about a drudging that could be next. Nothing day in rice other than the spread tightening to get the next load of rolls done, 947 1/2. Dow up another 43 to 19,837, and bonds popped a point 09 to 148.30. Just like a dead cat, the knife can bounce.
As stated friday, market revolves around S A, and they got a little rain. Corn off 3 at 353 1/4 and wheat off 4 1/4 to 405 . Reports of cold weather damage in wheat belt trumped by bean sell off of 15 1/4 cents to 1021 1/2. Might be time to stop worring about the bean rally that you missed and get serious about a drudging that could be next. Nothing day in rice other than the spread tightening to get the next load of rolls done, 947 1/2. Dow up another 43 to 19,837, and bonds popped a point 09 to 148.30. Just like a dead cat, the knife can bounce.
12/16
Glad to have this week in the books. Corn gives up 1/4 to settle 356 1/4. Wheat tested chart support and bounced back to unchanged, 409 1/4. China strength in beans spilled over to the US as we closed up 7 3/4 at 1036 3/4. This market revolves around south america weather, with some casino money in the pot as well. Rice, like wheat, tested lows before bouncing, ending up a penny and a half at 948. Dont think that price is moving much cash, as it appears the river and local mills are willing to make use of receipts. The falling knife bonds are back at it, off 28 more to 147.21. Dow had a hundred point day, and ends off 9, 19,794.
Glad to have this week in the books. Corn gives up 1/4 to settle 356 1/4. Wheat tested chart support and bounced back to unchanged, 409 1/4. China strength in beans spilled over to the US as we closed up 7 3/4 at 1036 3/4. This market revolves around south america weather, with some casino money in the pot as well. Rice, like wheat, tested lows before bouncing, ending up a penny and a half at 948. Dont think that price is moving much cash, as it appears the river and local mills are willing to make use of receipts. The falling knife bonds are back at it, off 28 more to 147.21. Dow had a hundred point day, and ends off 9, 19,794.
12/15
Pretty good exports across the board, especially beans to give us an early shot in the arm, but then the questions started to set in. Corn wound up off 5 1/2 to 356 1/2 and shakey. Wheat tested support around 408, had a bounce but wouldnt hold, closing near the lows at 409 1/4, down 8 3/4. Beans had solid exports again and showed great promise early for the whole grain complex, but then the realization that this might well be the last strong export number for a very long time got some traction and we backed off to 5 1/4 higher, 10.29. Rice spread rolls have gone smooth enough to give the resident bear a peaceful sleep last night and a sense of agression today. Down 24 and more than 50 cents lower than we were monday. 946 1/2. Bonds were weak then strong, settling up two tics at 148.17. Dow did a butter churn higher by 38, laying down a bit of a base and settling 19,803. Ican himself has the power to put us over 20K for a Merry Trump Christmas.
Pretty good exports across the board, especially beans to give us an early shot in the arm, but then the questions started to set in. Corn wound up off 5 1/2 to 356 1/2 and shakey. Wheat tested support around 408, had a bounce but wouldnt hold, closing near the lows at 409 1/4, down 8 3/4. Beans had solid exports again and showed great promise early for the whole grain complex, but then the realization that this might well be the last strong export number for a very long time got some traction and we backed off to 5 1/4 higher, 10.29. Rice spread rolls have gone smooth enough to give the resident bear a peaceful sleep last night and a sense of agression today. Down 24 and more than 50 cents lower than we were monday. 946 1/2. Bonds were weak then strong, settling up two tics at 148.17. Dow did a butter churn higher by 38, laying down a bit of a base and settling 19,803. Ican himself has the power to put us over 20K for a Merry Trump Christmas.
12/14
Another round of late buying gets corn up a penny to 362 and wheat up a half to 418. Beans couldnt hold a rally and dropped 4 1/4 to 1023 3/4. I cant rule out a late season bonzi run, but this baby is TIRED. Rice off 8 to 970 1/2 on significant roll of the spread. We all knew Yellens 2 bit move would happen today, and she didnt dissapoint. Bonds tried to rally yet again, but the falling knife it has become could not be overcome. Off 11 at 148.15 and weak in the knees. Tried to rally the dow after the FED splash, but it rolled over as well. Took a reasonable pop late to get back to only down 93, a still healthy 19,765.
Another round of late buying gets corn up a penny to 362 and wheat up a half to 418. Beans couldnt hold a rally and dropped 4 1/4 to 1023 3/4. I cant rule out a late season bonzi run, but this baby is TIRED. Rice off 8 to 970 1/2 on significant roll of the spread. We all knew Yellens 2 bit move would happen today, and she didnt dissapoint. Bonds tried to rally yet again, but the falling knife it has become could not be overcome. Off 11 at 148.15 and weak in the knees. Tried to rally the dow after the FED splash, but it rolled over as well. Took a reasonable pop late to get back to only down 93, a still healthy 19,765.
12/13
Wow, take monday, wash, rinse, repeat. Corn plus 1/2 to 361, wheat up 1/4 to 417 1/2, beans tried a rally but closed off 3 to 1028, and rice pushed 7 lower to 978 1/2. Bonds dragged up 7 to 148.26, and the dow did continue the Trump rally to 19,858, gaining 135. I know its a holiday trade, but dont let a few days like this lull you to sleep. Spikes this time of year can come out of the blue, and it takes very little to move alot.
Wow, take monday, wash, rinse, repeat. Corn plus 1/2 to 361, wheat up 1/4 to 417 1/2, beans tried a rally but closed off 3 to 1028, and rice pushed 7 lower to 978 1/2. Bonds dragged up 7 to 148.26, and the dow did continue the Trump rally to 19,858, gaining 135. I know its a holiday trade, but dont let a few days like this lull you to sleep. Spikes this time of year can come out of the blue, and it takes very little to move alot.
12/12
Not much of a monday. Corn and wheat each rally to close up a penny, 360 1/2 and 417 1/4. Beans and rice couldn't hold early strength and closed down 6 1/2 each at 1031 and 985 1/2. Bonds dragged themselves up to a whopping 3 higher, 148.19. Dow was up 12 to 19,723. March is now top step for the dow.
Not much of a monday. Corn and wheat each rally to close up a penny, 360 1/2 and 417 1/4. Beans and rice couldn't hold early strength and closed down 6 1/2 each at 1031 and 985 1/2. Bonds dragged themselves up to a whopping 3 higher, 148.19. Dow was up 12 to 19,723. March is now top step for the dow.
12/09
After the much awaited and anticlimatic WASDE report, the grains staged a strong late rally to close firm across the board. Corn popped 6 to 359 1/2 and the next dime will meet a fair amount of hedge selling by my guess. Wheat up 8 to 416 1/4 and still a significant amount of large spec short. Beans up 10 1/2 to 1037 1/2 because there was air up there to fill in. Makes the chart longs happy on a friday. Rice got back thursdays drop and closed up 15 to 992. We haave some selling here at $10 for now, but then it gets thin for half a buck. Dow continues its Trump rally to 19,769, up another 148, while the falling knife we call bonds is off another 1.15 to 148.16. We will be swithcing dow quotes to march moving forward, as December is no longer top step. Spent some time with George Kuchar of Kuchar combine parts, and what he has developed over the years for the inside of a combine sure seems to make sense. If anyone has any first hand opinions, I'd like to hear them. Thanks.
After the much awaited and anticlimatic WASDE report, the grains staged a strong late rally to close firm across the board. Corn popped 6 to 359 1/2 and the next dime will meet a fair amount of hedge selling by my guess. Wheat up 8 to 416 1/4 and still a significant amount of large spec short. Beans up 10 1/2 to 1037 1/2 because there was air up there to fill in. Makes the chart longs happy on a friday. Rice got back thursdays drop and closed up 15 to 992. We haave some selling here at $10 for now, but then it gets thin for half a buck. Dow continues its Trump rally to 19,769, up another 148, while the falling knife we call bonds is off another 1.15 to 148.16. We will be swithcing dow quotes to march moving forward, as December is no longer top step. Spent some time with George Kuchar of Kuchar combine parts, and what he has developed over the years for the inside of a combine sure seems to make sense. If anyone has any first hand opinions, I'd like to hear them. Thanks.
12/08
Corn slips another 4 1/2 to 353 1/2. Looks like the argentina rain story has been played out. Wheat pops 7 1/4 to 408 1/4. India drops its tarriff. It would appear that india doesnt have nearly as much wheat as they said they did. Beans drop 22 to 1027. Brazils big crop is getting bigger and they are hedging it, and they will be shipping it sooner than usual. Three grains, three stories from three different countries affecting prices. BTW, India is priced in electric only Rupees, Brazil sells in Real, and argintina prices in Yuan. Notice I didnt say dollars. Rice backing up 16 to 977, but seller doesnt seem too much in a hurry to get short more. Dow up 104 to 19,621, and the bonds break yet another point plus to 149.21. Still a falling knife.
Corn slips another 4 1/2 to 353 1/2. Looks like the argentina rain story has been played out. Wheat pops 7 1/4 to 408 1/4. India drops its tarriff. It would appear that india doesnt have nearly as much wheat as they said they did. Beans drop 22 to 1027. Brazils big crop is getting bigger and they are hedging it, and they will be shipping it sooner than usual. Three grains, three stories from three different countries affecting prices. BTW, India is priced in electric only Rupees, Brazil sells in Real, and argintina prices in Yuan. Notice I didnt say dollars. Rice backing up 16 to 977, but seller doesnt seem too much in a hurry to get short more. Dow up 104 to 19,621, and the bonds break yet another point plus to 149.21. Still a falling knife.
12/07
Corn backs up 2 1/2 to 358, while wheat slips 5 3/4 to 401. Beans closed up 1 1/2 at 10.49. Rice off3, 993 last. Not much of a story today, with new bean sales to china, but the bulk of that a year defered. Dow exploded up 285 to 19,517 and bonds found most of a point to close 151.06.
Corn backs up 2 1/2 to 358, while wheat slips 5 3/4 to 401. Beans closed up 1 1/2 at 10.49. Rice off3, 993 last. Not much of a story today, with new bean sales to china, but the bulk of that a year defered. Dow exploded up 285 to 19,517 and bonds found most of a point to close 151.06.
12/06
Short covering runs into farmer pricing. Corn up 1 1/4 to 360 1/2, and wheat slips 1 1/2 to 406 3/4. Beans come out full throttle, but lost steam thru the day and wound up 4 1/4 higher. The casino boys seem to be loosing a few in the pack. Curious to see who signs the next marker. Rice off 2 1/2 to 996, and holding well. Short has 6,000 and theres 10,000 jan futures to roll or move. Bonds have a rare dead day and close off 15 tics at 150.09. Dow also dull up 22 to 19,232.
Short covering runs into farmer pricing. Corn up 1 1/4 to 360 1/2, and wheat slips 1 1/2 to 406 3/4. Beans come out full throttle, but lost steam thru the day and wound up 4 1/4 higher. The casino boys seem to be loosing a few in the pack. Curious to see who signs the next marker. Rice off 2 1/2 to 996, and holding well. Short has 6,000 and theres 10,000 jan futures to roll or move. Bonds have a rare dead day and close off 15 tics at 150.09. Dow also dull up 22 to 19,232.
12/05
Solid floor on wheat and corn alright. Corn up 12 to 359 1/4 on dryness in argentina. Thats the story, but in reality the money flow just had no more to sell. Same story but more muted in wheat, up 4 to 408 1/4. Some interesting deliveries and some cancellations there. Beans followed meal strength and closed up 16. Im suprised by that one, but the bull funds have seasonal control, and some of them would like/need to see outsized gains for december. Dont underestimate how foolish someone can be with someone elses money. Rice short squirmed a little today, and a 36 cent pop on 400 or so net buys was the result. Welcome to an illiquid holiday trade, as if on que. Bonds rallied over a full point to close up 8 at 150.24 in the march. Im getting use to saying the same exact thing. Remember the garbage guy from a while ago. Same story, different day. Dow quietly got back friday slippage and more to settle 19,210, up 52.
Solid floor on wheat and corn alright. Corn up 12 to 359 1/4 on dryness in argentina. Thats the story, but in reality the money flow just had no more to sell. Same story but more muted in wheat, up 4 to 408 1/4. Some interesting deliveries and some cancellations there. Beans followed meal strength and closed up 16. Im suprised by that one, but the bull funds have seasonal control, and some of them would like/need to see outsized gains for december. Dont underestimate how foolish someone can be with someone elses money. Rice short squirmed a little today, and a 36 cent pop on 400 or so net buys was the result. Welcome to an illiquid holiday trade, as if on que. Bonds rallied over a full point to close up 8 at 150.24 in the march. Im getting use to saying the same exact thing. Remember the garbage guy from a while ago. Same story, different day. Dow quietly got back friday slippage and more to settle 19,210, up 52.
12/02
Corn and wheat had their respective deliveries and spread trade, helping to find a level of trade, at least for now. Corn bounced 4 3/4 to end the week at 347 1/4. Wheat has deliveries nearly current, but december was spiked 16 cents and march up 8 3/4 to 404 1/4. Beans had no real help from meal or oil today, and closed off 2 1/4 to 1027 1/2. Rice had its usual get it open and then keep a thumb on it trade, closing off 9 1/2 to 962 1/2. Commitments still show a sizable spec short that will have to do some manuvering in what can be a very quiet and illiquid holiday trade. Dow suffered what has to be the deadest date since the election and ended off 39 at 19,158. Bonds rally a full point back to 151.28. Trump took a call from Taiwan. It has the potential to start some sabre rattling monday morning. Something to keep in mind if you trade in protien with our biggest global buyer in a commodity that we currently have an abundace of and expected huuuge new plantings. Trump saved 1000 jobs in Indiana and a woman scorned calls it crony capitalism. Lets take a look at how a state gets its income, like natural resourses as an income provider vs labor. Do they have TIFs in Alsaka? Might as well get lectured by Norway, cherry picking what works at home, but forgetting you are one scientific advancement away from fiscal irrevelence.. I always try to remind my farmers about local, regional, and national price displacements, and how to capitalize on each. And not to lose site of their back yard vs the national and global story. Want cronyism? Come see how the deals get cut in democratic Illinois.
Corn and wheat had their respective deliveries and spread trade, helping to find a level of trade, at least for now. Corn bounced 4 3/4 to end the week at 347 1/4. Wheat has deliveries nearly current, but december was spiked 16 cents and march up 8 3/4 to 404 1/4. Beans had no real help from meal or oil today, and closed off 2 1/4 to 1027 1/2. Rice had its usual get it open and then keep a thumb on it trade, closing off 9 1/2 to 962 1/2. Commitments still show a sizable spec short that will have to do some manuvering in what can be a very quiet and illiquid holiday trade. Dow suffered what has to be the deadest date since the election and ended off 39 at 19,158. Bonds rally a full point back to 151.28. Trump took a call from Taiwan. It has the potential to start some sabre rattling monday morning. Something to keep in mind if you trade in protien with our biggest global buyer in a commodity that we currently have an abundace of and expected huuuge new plantings. Trump saved 1000 jobs in Indiana and a woman scorned calls it crony capitalism. Lets take a look at how a state gets its income, like natural resourses as an income provider vs labor. Do they have TIFs in Alsaka? Might as well get lectured by Norway, cherry picking what works at home, but forgetting you are one scientific advancement away from fiscal irrevelence.. I always try to remind my farmers about local, regional, and national price displacements, and how to capitalize on each. And not to lose site of their back yard vs the national and global story. Want cronyism? Come see how the deals get cut in democratic Illinois.
12/01
Weakness continued today with corn off 6 to 342 1/2, and wheat off 7 1/4 to 395 1/2. Dont see alot more downside in the wheat especially, Third day normally fills the boat and that makes me a buyer.. Beans off thru the day along with meal, but beans rally late to only down 2 1/2. 10.29 3/4. Looks like rallies will be meant to be sold. Rice break failed, and long hedger started his roll as well, 972, plus 1 1/2. Dow gained another 65 to 19,197 with crude keeping the ball rolling, and bonds rally over a point to still settle down 1.25 at 150.28. Seems like I wrote that yesterday.
Weakness continued today with corn off 6 to 342 1/2, and wheat off 7 1/4 to 395 1/2. Dont see alot more downside in the wheat especially, Third day normally fills the boat and that makes me a buyer.. Beans off thru the day along with meal, but beans rally late to only down 2 1/2. 10.29 3/4. Looks like rallies will be meant to be sold. Rice break failed, and long hedger started his roll as well, 972, plus 1 1/2. Dow gained another 65 to 19,197 with crude keeping the ball rolling, and bonds rally over a point to still settle down 1.25 at 150.28. Seems like I wrote that yesterday.
11/30
Switching to march for corn and wheat today. Still no corn deliveries but there is lots of carry built into the spread. Wheat got a new 900 lot delivered and moved to nearly current dates. March corn off 1/2 to 348 1/2, and wheat slipped another 6 to 402 3/4. Beans held the 30 area and closed 1032 1/4, off 10 1/4. Rice short started to cover, up 17 to 970 1/2. Lots more work to do to move his position. Spread is still an option. Crude exploded on an OPEC agreement, weather it sticks or not. This time, beans didnt go for the ride. Exports tomorrow better throw the grains , especially the beans, a bone. Dow up 17 to 19132, mostly on the oil companies back. Bonds rally more than a point off the lows to close still 1.15 lower at 152.21. Its like a few other grains I know, long for a short time, short for a long time.
Switching to march for corn and wheat today. Still no corn deliveries but there is lots of carry built into the spread. Wheat got a new 900 lot delivered and moved to nearly current dates. March corn off 1/2 to 348 1/2, and wheat slipped another 6 to 402 3/4. Beans held the 30 area and closed 1032 1/4, off 10 1/4. Rice short started to cover, up 17 to 970 1/2. Lots more work to do to move his position. Spread is still an option. Crude exploded on an OPEC agreement, weather it sticks or not. This time, beans didnt go for the ride. Exports tomorrow better throw the grains , especially the beans, a bone. Dow up 17 to 19132, mostly on the oil companies back. Bonds rally more than a point off the lows to close still 1.15 lower at 152.21. Its like a few other grains I know, long for a short time, short for a long time.
11/29
Corn was in fact tired, and off 11 3/4 to 336 3/4. No deliveries. Wheat off 5 1/2 to 384. Just a couple wheat receipts out tonight, but KC wheat and oats both delivered almost current. Beans held 1040 for now, 1042 1/2 loosing 13 1/2. China softer and export sales starting to find their way to brazil, as expected. Our ports could get boring by the end of February this year. Rice off a nickel to 953 1/2. The short started his roll today, and he has a lot to do. Dow up 35 to 19,115, and bonds found another 14 to 154.04. Trump is no idiot, and higher rates also translate to a higher deficit. Obama ran up the meter for near 10 trillion with almost no rate payout to account for, and some day soon everyone else will realize that unless Trump has to, he's not going to pay the toll either. With the rest of the global bankers not able to stop buying debt, yet alone paying juice, we wont have to move far to be the new normal. I think one and done for now.
Corn was in fact tired, and off 11 3/4 to 336 3/4. No deliveries. Wheat off 5 1/2 to 384. Just a couple wheat receipts out tonight, but KC wheat and oats both delivered almost current. Beans held 1040 for now, 1042 1/2 loosing 13 1/2. China softer and export sales starting to find their way to brazil, as expected. Our ports could get boring by the end of February this year. Rice off a nickel to 953 1/2. The short started his roll today, and he has a lot to do. Dow up 35 to 19,115, and bonds found another 14 to 154.04. Trump is no idiot, and higher rates also translate to a higher deficit. Obama ran up the meter for near 10 trillion with almost no rate payout to account for, and some day soon everyone else will realize that unless Trump has to, he's not going to pay the toll either. With the rest of the global bankers not able to stop buying debt, yet alone paying juice, we wont have to move far to be the new normal. I think one and done for now.
11/28
Corn acting tired and off 3/4 to 348 1/2. Wheat spreads widening in front of deliveries, pushing Dec off 6 1/4 to 389 1/2. Beans pop another dime to 1056. Rice off a dull 4 cents to 958 1/2. Dow slips 64 to 19,080 and bonds pop 28 to 153.22. Yesterdays bond guess was good for the day. Wonder if it has legs? Tomorrow is first notice for December deliveries, and it showed in oats and wheat especially. Don't know what bearish news they will have to throw at wheat by Friday. And a big spec short.
Corn acting tired and off 3/4 to 348 1/2. Wheat spreads widening in front of deliveries, pushing Dec off 6 1/4 to 389 1/2. Beans pop another dime to 1056. Rice off a dull 4 cents to 958 1/2. Dow slips 64 to 19,080 and bonds pop 28 to 153.22. Yesterdays bond guess was good for the day. Wonder if it has legs? Tomorrow is first notice for December deliveries, and it showed in oats and wheat especially. Don't know what bearish news they will have to throw at wheat by Friday. And a big spec short.
11/25
Corn off 1 1/2 to 349 1/4, after chewing on the 350 strike for a while. Oats appear to be fading fast, so that squeeze didn't hold water. Wheat off another 5 3/4 to 395 3/4. The world is currently awash with grains. No one told the bean spec, as he bought more to end the week, pushing the market to 1046, up 11 3/4. Rice found footing up 9 to 962 1/2. Board is, and probably will be the cheapest rice to be found until after Christmas. Dow up another 90 to 19,144, and bumping up against some technical resistance to me here. Bonds off 3 tics to 152.26. Wonder if Wednesdays lows will be it for now. Be careful picking bottoms in the big picture, but at least you have a closing risk price to work with.
Corn off 1 1/2 to 349 1/4, after chewing on the 350 strike for a while. Oats appear to be fading fast, so that squeeze didn't hold water. Wheat off another 5 3/4 to 395 3/4. The world is currently awash with grains. No one told the bean spec, as he bought more to end the week, pushing the market to 1046, up 11 3/4. Rice found footing up 9 to 962 1/2. Board is, and probably will be the cheapest rice to be found until after Christmas. Dow up another 90 to 19,144, and bumping up against some technical resistance to me here. Bonds off 3 tics to 152.26. Wonder if Wednesdays lows will be it for now. Be careful picking bottoms in the big picture, but at least you have a closing risk price to work with.
11/23
Corn rally to the close to end off 1/4 at 350 3/4. Wheat loses 5 3/4 to 401 1/2, and beans gain 4 1/4 to 1034 1/4. Meal was weaker. Rice off 2 1/2 to 953 1/2 and at the lows for the day. Strong close to a dull up dow day, 19,054, plus 59. Bonds post a point plus rally from the low to 152.29, off 11
Corn rally to the close to end off 1/4 at 350 3/4. Wheat loses 5 3/4 to 401 1/2, and beans gain 4 1/4 to 1034 1/4. Meal was weaker. Rice off 2 1/2 to 953 1/2 and at the lows for the day. Strong close to a dull up dow day, 19,054, plus 59. Bonds post a point plus rally from the low to 152.29, off 11
11/22
Beans, lead by meal , continue the march, up 9 3/4 to 1030. another reasonable volume strike. Oats slip more as the front squeeze subsides and carry again reinstates itself, along with wheat off 3 to 407 1/4. This is the global part of the grain picture that perplexes me, making me more believe this is a money flow trade in the beans and corn vs a real change in mentality. Corn at 351, up 1 1/4 and putting heat on all the 350 call shorts. Rice drops a quarter on news that yet again Iran or Iraq comes to the market but takes Uruguay rice. 956. Dow quietly drags itself up 85 to 18,995, while the bonds give up a point rally to settle 2 tics higher at 153.08. On a side note, Lee Harvey Oswald is still the primary suspect in the Kennedy assassination, The cubs win the world series, and California is a liberal state with a big debt load. Glad I trolled the internet tonight to get caught up on the obvious.
Beans, lead by meal , continue the march, up 9 3/4 to 1030. another reasonable volume strike. Oats slip more as the front squeeze subsides and carry again reinstates itself, along with wheat off 3 to 407 1/4. This is the global part of the grain picture that perplexes me, making me more believe this is a money flow trade in the beans and corn vs a real change in mentality. Corn at 351, up 1 1/4 and putting heat on all the 350 call shorts. Rice drops a quarter on news that yet again Iran or Iraq comes to the market but takes Uruguay rice. 956. Dow quietly drags itself up 85 to 18,995, while the bonds give up a point rally to settle 2 tics higher at 153.08. On a side note, Lee Harvey Oswald is still the primary suspect in the Kennedy assassination, The cubs win the world series, and California is a liberal state with a big debt load. Glad I trolled the internet tonight to get caught up on the obvious.
11/21
Grain strength continues. Corn up 4 1/4 to349 3/4, and we have done some pretty good volume up here these last few trading days. Rally gets harder from here I think. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 410 1/4, and the wheat buyer better find his pen tomorrow. Oats rolled over hard today. Always leading, never lying. Beans up 26 1/2 to 1020 1/4, settling on the big volume December strike. Rice up 17 1/2 to 981. Shorts got over their skis, and no one to help for now. Dow drifts up 57 to 18,910, while bonds ran up and down in a point range, closing up a single tic at 153.06. If this grain market has much more legs, its from the casino, not any fundamental I can put my fingers on.
Grain strength continues. Corn up 4 1/4 to349 3/4, and we have done some pretty good volume up here these last few trading days. Rally gets harder from here I think. Wheat up 2 1/4 to 410 1/4, and the wheat buyer better find his pen tomorrow. Oats rolled over hard today. Always leading, never lying. Beans up 26 1/2 to 1020 1/4, settling on the big volume December strike. Rice up 17 1/2 to 981. Shorts got over their skis, and no one to help for now. Dow drifts up 57 to 18,910, while bonds ran up and down in a point range, closing up a single tic at 153.06. If this grain market has much more legs, its from the casino, not any fundamental I can put my fingers on.
11/18
Shorts out of steam for Friday. Corn up 3 1/2, with bigger volume near the highs, settling 345 1/2. wheat up a nickel, 408, and beans up 4 1/4 to 993 3/4. Rice shorts seem a little winded as well, 963 1/2, up 12 1/2. Dow off 16 in dull trade to 18,853, and bonds off another 20 to 153.05. Short and sweet, but there's not much to say. Short week next week, and then the casino will be open for end of year trades/bets. Be carful, or you just might find the house raising table stakes on what seems like a dead table.
Shorts out of steam for Friday. Corn up 3 1/2, with bigger volume near the highs, settling 345 1/2. wheat up a nickel, 408, and beans up 4 1/4 to 993 3/4. Rice shorts seem a little winded as well, 963 1/2, up 12 1/2. Dow off 16 in dull trade to 18,853, and bonds off another 20 to 153.05. Short and sweet, but there's not much to say. Short week next week, and then the casino will be open for end of year trades/bets. Be carful, or you just might find the house raising table stakes on what seems like a dead table.
11/17
Export sales were great across the board. Beans opened a little soft anyway, but recovered to get back yesterdays losses, up 3 3/4 to 989 1/2. Wheat up 6 to 403 and corn up 3 1/2 to 342. Do you really want to join the other 100,000 short spec contracts in wheat between now and the new year, especially below $4? Oats had a big shift because of spread roll, but the upward march continues. Always leading, never lying. Rice off 18 1/2 to 951, giving up a big piece of yesterdays rally. Dow up 36 to 18,869. Bonds rolled over, again, down 1.08 to 153.25. I'm done thinking the bottom is near. It will take some global uncertainty to change this projectory. Catch the falling knife, cut your fingers. I got no more fingers to spare.
Export sales were great across the board. Beans opened a little soft anyway, but recovered to get back yesterdays losses, up 3 3/4 to 989 1/2. Wheat up 6 to 403 and corn up 3 1/2 to 342. Do you really want to join the other 100,000 short spec contracts in wheat between now and the new year, especially below $4? Oats had a big shift because of spread roll, but the upward march continues. Always leading, never lying. Rice off 18 1/2 to 951, giving up a big piece of yesterdays rally. Dow up 36 to 18,869. Bonds rolled over, again, down 1.08 to 153.25. I'm done thinking the bottom is near. It will take some global uncertainty to change this projectory. Catch the falling knife, cut your fingers. I got no more fingers to spare.
11/16
Rice held the low, and exploded upward, plus 30 1/2 to 969 1/2. No raging stories, but will be watching exports tomorrow for a potential surprise to justify today. Beans open with strength but fade quickly, off 3 3/4 to 985 3/4. Wheat had no follow thru and off 2 to 397. Corn gives back 3 to 338 1/2. Ever ben to a fish market. Sometimes they flop around , but they are pretty sure dead, and soon they even start to stink. Dow off 47 to 18,833 and bonds did in fact find a floor and bounced 24 to 155.01. A 5 full point rally would still leave us on a downward trend. Lots of air.
Rice held the low, and exploded upward, plus 30 1/2 to 969 1/2. No raging stories, but will be watching exports tomorrow for a potential surprise to justify today. Beans open with strength but fade quickly, off 3 3/4 to 985 3/4. Wheat had no follow thru and off 2 to 397. Corn gives back 3 to 338 1/2. Ever ben to a fish market. Sometimes they flop around , but they are pretty sure dead, and soon they even start to stink. Dow off 47 to 18,833 and bonds did in fact find a floor and bounced 24 to 155.01. A 5 full point rally would still leave us on a downward trend. Lots of air.
11/15
Rice held the lows again today and closed flat 939. Wheat gained a nickel to 399 and shook off the floor. Corn up 4 1/4 as well, but id bet on wheat over corn between now and the end of the year. Beans found a nickel plus as well, 989 1/2. Don't see a ton of upside, but never underestimate what fools with money might do between now and Christmas to make their number. Dow up another 58 to 18,880 and bonds stalled out on their downward march for now, and maybe the week, 154.09.
Rice held the lows again today and closed flat 939. Wheat gained a nickel to 399 and shook off the floor. Corn up 4 1/4 as well, but id bet on wheat over corn between now and the end of the year. Beans found a nickel plus as well, 989 1/2. Don't see a ton of upside, but never underestimate what fools with money might do between now and Christmas to make their number. Dow up another 58 to 18,880 and bonds stalled out on their downward march for now, and maybe the week, 154.09.
11/14
November futures are off the board, taking carry deliveries with them. Another 250 new rice out, and rice closes down 31 1/2 to 939 1/2. We put the test in at the bottom of a very long range, and wouldn't be surprised if it got traded again today. Beans recovered to only off 1 3/4 to 984 1/4 with meal strength lending a hand.. Corn lost 3 to 337 1/4 in kind of listless but weak trade, while wheat overextended its downward trajectory to 394, off 9. I would expect a bounce. Dow up 35 to 18 822. Bonds off another 24 to 154.13.
November futures are off the board, taking carry deliveries with them. Another 250 new rice out, and rice closes down 31 1/2 to 939 1/2. We put the test in at the bottom of a very long range, and wouldn't be surprised if it got traded again today. Beans recovered to only off 1 3/4 to 984 1/4 with meal strength lending a hand.. Corn lost 3 to 337 1/4 in kind of listless but weak trade, while wheat overextended its downward trajectory to 394, off 9. I would expect a bounce. Dow up 35 to 18 822. Bonds off another 24 to 154.13.
11/11
Anyone else glad to have this week in the books? Corn broke 3 1/4 to end the week at 340 1/4. Fells like we are in the middle of a range and the clock is ticking for the farmer. You don't need much chart experience to figure out how high the market has to run to get more supply. And we all know there is plenty out there. As with all the other grains, I'm worried about how hard it will be to catch the falling knife. Wheat off 1 3/4 to 403. Quality concerns are whispered while supply overages are shouted.. What's going on in oats? Beans drop 12 to 986, a quarter cheaper than Tuesdays close. Lots of sellers counting on that seasonal rally this year, but I wonder if the calendar might have shifted a few weeks early. Keep that in mind when you make your marketing decisions in beans this year. Next year too, for that matter. We are no longer the supermarket to the world, just the cheapest call option available. Lots of calls expire worthless. Rice off 12 1/2 to 971. Milling yields are off so there is little doubt that total domestic and residual will be solid this year, but I would like to see more exports. I think under Clinton that would have been a layup, but we really don't have a good measure of President Trumps humanitarian side. I personally think he will surprise the nation and globe with his leadership and generosity. Time will tell, and our neighbors are in need. Bonds continue their reset to 155.05, off another point. I'm disappointed in myself for not seeing and pushing this part of the financial equation more fully. The reset was obvious, but I've been lulled to sleep by the previous administrations grip on the debt market. and limited, very controlled and minor moves. I came into the markets In the 80's so nothing here today is shocking or unpredictable, just underestimated. If you trade financials, keep this in mind moving forward. The shackles are off. Dow flat for the day, but up almost 1000 since last Friday. That's what I consider the start of the political rally. A trump win just gave it a lot more legs. Markets run marathons, and this one started as a sprint. If you are a runner you will grasp that analogy and trade accordingly. Have a great treading week.
Anyone else glad to have this week in the books? Corn broke 3 1/4 to end the week at 340 1/4. Fells like we are in the middle of a range and the clock is ticking for the farmer. You don't need much chart experience to figure out how high the market has to run to get more supply. And we all know there is plenty out there. As with all the other grains, I'm worried about how hard it will be to catch the falling knife. Wheat off 1 3/4 to 403. Quality concerns are whispered while supply overages are shouted.. What's going on in oats? Beans drop 12 to 986, a quarter cheaper than Tuesdays close. Lots of sellers counting on that seasonal rally this year, but I wonder if the calendar might have shifted a few weeks early. Keep that in mind when you make your marketing decisions in beans this year. Next year too, for that matter. We are no longer the supermarket to the world, just the cheapest call option available. Lots of calls expire worthless. Rice off 12 1/2 to 971. Milling yields are off so there is little doubt that total domestic and residual will be solid this year, but I would like to see more exports. I think under Clinton that would have been a layup, but we really don't have a good measure of President Trumps humanitarian side. I personally think he will surprise the nation and globe with his leadership and generosity. Time will tell, and our neighbors are in need. Bonds continue their reset to 155.05, off another point. I'm disappointed in myself for not seeing and pushing this part of the financial equation more fully. The reset was obvious, but I've been lulled to sleep by the previous administrations grip on the debt market. and limited, very controlled and minor moves. I came into the markets In the 80's so nothing here today is shocking or unpredictable, just underestimated. If you trade financials, keep this in mind moving forward. The shackles are off. Dow flat for the day, but up almost 1000 since last Friday. That's what I consider the start of the political rally. A trump win just gave it a lot more legs. Markets run marathons, and this one started as a sprint. If you are a runner you will grasp that analogy and trade accordingly. Have a great treading week.
11/10
Looks like we are having a bout of money managers on the sidelines chasing a train that left the station. Might be a fair amount more money boys stuck working the thanksgiving to Christmas shift this year, trying desperately to make the number. If you play your cards right, you might get house odds in that window. Dow up another 254 to 18,786. Bonds tried to rally, but no luck, off 24 to 156.07.
Money getting spread around everywhere, with corn up 2 3/4 to 343 1/2. Exports were ok. Wheat off 2 to 404 3/4, and that was the surprise to me on the grains. Beans up 7 with great shipments, and reasonable exports. When the river rolls over, the whole thing will. Might get another month. Rice up 13 to 983 1/2 and the only thing I can see is a seller that didn't get the bear company he expected. Duck anyone?
Looks like we are having a bout of money managers on the sidelines chasing a train that left the station. Might be a fair amount more money boys stuck working the thanksgiving to Christmas shift this year, trying desperately to make the number. If you play your cards right, you might get house odds in that window. Dow up another 254 to 18,786. Bonds tried to rally, but no luck, off 24 to 156.07.
Money getting spread around everywhere, with corn up 2 3/4 to 343 1/2. Exports were ok. Wheat off 2 to 404 3/4, and that was the surprise to me on the grains. Beans up 7 with great shipments, and reasonable exports. When the river rolls over, the whole thing will. Might get another month. Rice up 13 to 983 1/2 and the only thing I can see is a seller that didn't get the bear company he expected. Duck anyone?
11/09
Grain reports were all bearish. Bad bearish to me. Corn lost 13 3/4 to 340 3/4 on a 2400 C O. Wheat lost 8 1/2 to 406 3/4 on domestic and global increases in stocks, although not the kind of numbers corn has. Beans drop 20 1/4 to 991 on ending stocks of 480. That kind of number doesn't even justify a 9 handle, yet alone 10. Rice only off 4 1/2 to 970 1/2 on, wait for it, huge ending stocks... Might have a delayed reaction, or did the seller front run the report looking for someone else to let him out?
In case you haven't heard, Trump won. Every liberal is crying racist and rigged. What a difference a day makes when it doesn't go your way. How could all the polls get it wrong everyone keeps asking. Its not statistics, its sample. An none of them wanted to believe that their sample was wrong. Too many PHDs. They needed a farmer to explain what was in front of their noses. Or a plumber, or carpenter, or small business owner. If you are reading this, you already get the point. Dow off 800 on the horror of a pro business candidate winning, by my guess fleecing speculators and the ignorant in Europe and Asia, only to rally 1100 points because we elected a pro-business man to the office of president, and stocks normally go up when businesses are allowed to make money. 18,532, up 247. Protests and ill timed comments may cause a pull back, but its a good bet that overseas money is about to start flowing back into the good old USA. Bonds fell like a rock after the kneejerk flight to quality rubbish faded, off 5.04 to 156.31. We will back and fill, but my guess is the looooong stagnant debt structure is done being at zero.
Grain reports were all bearish. Bad bearish to me. Corn lost 13 3/4 to 340 3/4 on a 2400 C O. Wheat lost 8 1/2 to 406 3/4 on domestic and global increases in stocks, although not the kind of numbers corn has. Beans drop 20 1/4 to 991 on ending stocks of 480. That kind of number doesn't even justify a 9 handle, yet alone 10. Rice only off 4 1/2 to 970 1/2 on, wait for it, huge ending stocks... Might have a delayed reaction, or did the seller front run the report looking for someone else to let him out?
In case you haven't heard, Trump won. Every liberal is crying racist and rigged. What a difference a day makes when it doesn't go your way. How could all the polls get it wrong everyone keeps asking. Its not statistics, its sample. An none of them wanted to believe that their sample was wrong. Too many PHDs. They needed a farmer to explain what was in front of their noses. Or a plumber, or carpenter, or small business owner. If you are reading this, you already get the point. Dow off 800 on the horror of a pro business candidate winning, by my guess fleecing speculators and the ignorant in Europe and Asia, only to rally 1100 points because we elected a pro-business man to the office of president, and stocks normally go up when businesses are allowed to make money. 18,532, up 247. Protests and ill timed comments may cause a pull back, but its a good bet that overseas money is about to start flowing back into the good old USA. Bonds fell like a rock after the kneejerk flight to quality rubbish faded, off 5.04 to 156.31. We will back and fill, but my guess is the looooong stagnant debt structure is done being at zero.
11/08
Pre-election and pre report fund money drove grains higher today. Corn up 8 to 354 1/4 and wheat up a nickel to 415 1/4. Beans backed off the highs but still up 12 3/4 to 1011 1/4. Rice off 5 1/2 to 975 on a little more drift. Dow up 93 to 18,285 and bonds slip 16 to 162.03. Hillary wins is the story. Well, its 10:30 and Hillary looses by the looks of it now. Grains weaker, dow off 700, and bonds up 2 full points. Buckle up folks, its going to get bumpy. Talking heads just got a dose of rural that they had tried to forget existed or counted, and the fly over states just gave a big up yours to the coasts. As an ag guy, cant say I'm disappointed, but do expect that the transition will have its hurdles. Make sure you hedge against these bumps. This should be a good year to sell the crop more than once.
Pre-election and pre report fund money drove grains higher today. Corn up 8 to 354 1/4 and wheat up a nickel to 415 1/4. Beans backed off the highs but still up 12 3/4 to 1011 1/4. Rice off 5 1/2 to 975 on a little more drift. Dow up 93 to 18,285 and bonds slip 16 to 162.03. Hillary wins is the story. Well, its 10:30 and Hillary looses by the looks of it now. Grains weaker, dow off 700, and bonds up 2 full points. Buckle up folks, its going to get bumpy. Talking heads just got a dose of rural that they had tried to forget existed or counted, and the fly over states just gave a big up yours to the coasts. As an ag guy, cant say I'm disappointed, but do expect that the transition will have its hurdles. Make sure you hedge against these bumps. This should be a good year to sell the crop more than once.
11/07
Corn off 2 1/2 to 346 1/4 and some early exports reported today. Wheat looses another 4 1/2 to 4.10 with a big black sea crop supply overhead and not all that much business. Beans up 7 3/4 to 998 1/2 and meal business I guess is that story. I don't buy it. Don't believe the seasonals can carry it that much farther either. Rice off 8 to 980 1/2 on a funny commitments of traders report. Bonds off 24 to 162.19, and the dow has confirmed that The election is over and Clinton has won. No need to vote for those who haven't yet. Up 387 to 18,192 and heading for new highs if you drink the cool aid. I cant rule it out either. Nine day drift was just a sucker bet to let Goldman load the boat. All covered in one day. Go vote tomorrow anyway.
Corn off 2 1/2 to 346 1/4 and some early exports reported today. Wheat looses another 4 1/2 to 4.10 with a big black sea crop supply overhead and not all that much business. Beans up 7 3/4 to 998 1/2 and meal business I guess is that story. I don't buy it. Don't believe the seasonals can carry it that much farther either. Rice off 8 to 980 1/2 on a funny commitments of traders report. Bonds off 24 to 162.19, and the dow has confirmed that The election is over and Clinton has won. No need to vote for those who haven't yet. Up 387 to 18,192 and heading for new highs if you drink the cool aid. I cant rule it out either. Nine day drift was just a sucker bet to let Goldman load the boat. All covered in one day. Go vote tomorrow anyway.
11/04
Grains held in there Friday to end the week on a boring but stable note. Corn plus 3/4 to 348 3/4, while wheat got back 2 1/4 to 414 1/2. Beans up a penny and a quarter to 990. 3/4. Rice gained 7.5 to settle 988 1/2. Bonds up 20 to 163.11 on worries that the Clinton wheels might come off, while the dow slipped 47 to 17,805 for the same reason. We are now off almost 300 points in the dow from a month ago to the day, and that was a down day in the cycle. Meanwhile the bonds are off 3 points in the same month. I would say we have priced in some Trump risk, while also pricing in the December fed meeting. If it took Yellen a year to find consensus to hike once, you can bet she wont have an easy time looking for multiple hikes. The global economy is still benign at best, and US earnings are barely enough to buy enough stock to keep the C suite guys options good. We should start a list of known or perceived Ponsy type schemes in the US. Stock buybacks with lots of C suite options should clearly make that list.
Grains held in there Friday to end the week on a boring but stable note. Corn plus 3/4 to 348 3/4, while wheat got back 2 1/4 to 414 1/2. Beans up a penny and a quarter to 990. 3/4. Rice gained 7.5 to settle 988 1/2. Bonds up 20 to 163.11 on worries that the Clinton wheels might come off, while the dow slipped 47 to 17,805 for the same reason. We are now off almost 300 points in the dow from a month ago to the day, and that was a down day in the cycle. Meanwhile the bonds are off 3 points in the same month. I would say we have priced in some Trump risk, while also pricing in the December fed meeting. If it took Yellen a year to find consensus to hike once, you can bet she wont have an easy time looking for multiple hikes. The global economy is still benign at best, and US earnings are barely enough to buy enough stock to keep the C suite guys options good. We should start a list of known or perceived Ponsy type schemes in the US. Stock buybacks with lots of C suite options should clearly make that list.
11/03
Export sales were stellar in corn, sorghum, meal, and beans, and the market could barely stay higher on the day. Rice sales were ok and good shipments as well. Would like to see more milled business, as the milling yields are off and we need to be selling milled to chew thru stocks, and earn the plus 100 domestic and residual number. Domestic usage will be up with these yields, but exports need a boost. Wheat sales were off, and the market let wheat know about it from the start. Wheat looses 5 3/4 to 412, and I'm already second guessing the base building idea. Corn plus 1 3/4 to 348, but not very impressive. Meal and oats did about nothing, and beans found 3 cents to 989 1/2. That's ugly with the sales we just posted. Already seeing some sad basis numbers as well if you get very far away from the river and prompt ship. Don't forget, the computers know you know about seasonal patterns, and this summer they showed you just how easy they could overpower our little grain market. It goes both ways and Mr. computer is direction agnostic. Well, not exactly, but that's a discussion for paid clients. Rice up 9 to 981, and the seller didn't bring a big enough bat. Is he waiting for a late inning swing tomorrow for the weekly chart paint? Dow off 29 to 17,852, as the street hasn't yet tried to show the commoners what will happen if you don't fall in line and vote right. Maybe that's a Monday story. Depends on what gets leaked over the weekend, and who its leaked on. I figure both sides have something left to mess with us lazy people who wait to the last day to vote. With a real ID no less if necessary. I cant buy beer, cigs, or even spray paint without an ID, but might be able to decide who runs the whole country. When I say only in America, I really mean it. Bonds still show no flight to safety, off 17 to 162.23.
Export sales were stellar in corn, sorghum, meal, and beans, and the market could barely stay higher on the day. Rice sales were ok and good shipments as well. Would like to see more milled business, as the milling yields are off and we need to be selling milled to chew thru stocks, and earn the plus 100 domestic and residual number. Domestic usage will be up with these yields, but exports need a boost. Wheat sales were off, and the market let wheat know about it from the start. Wheat looses 5 3/4 to 412, and I'm already second guessing the base building idea. Corn plus 1 3/4 to 348, but not very impressive. Meal and oats did about nothing, and beans found 3 cents to 989 1/2. That's ugly with the sales we just posted. Already seeing some sad basis numbers as well if you get very far away from the river and prompt ship. Don't forget, the computers know you know about seasonal patterns, and this summer they showed you just how easy they could overpower our little grain market. It goes both ways and Mr. computer is direction agnostic. Well, not exactly, but that's a discussion for paid clients. Rice up 9 to 981, and the seller didn't bring a big enough bat. Is he waiting for a late inning swing tomorrow for the weekly chart paint? Dow off 29 to 17,852, as the street hasn't yet tried to show the commoners what will happen if you don't fall in line and vote right. Maybe that's a Monday story. Depends on what gets leaked over the weekend, and who its leaked on. I figure both sides have something left to mess with us lazy people who wait to the last day to vote. With a real ID no less if necessary. I cant buy beer, cigs, or even spray paint without an ID, but might be able to decide who runs the whole country. When I say only in America, I really mean it. Bonds still show no flight to safety, off 17 to 162.23.
11/02
Wheat gained 3 1/2 to 417 3/4. and sure acts like its building a base. Corn off 2 3/4 to 346 1/4 on more of a good thing harvest. Same story with the beans, off 6 3/4 to 986 1/2. Rice hit again by a relentless selling program, although it sure doesn't feel commercial on the sell side down here, especially with receipts being cancelled. Turned up with solid buying from 970 to 65, and bid up a little late to 972. Seller better bring a bigger bat to the game tomorrow. Dow off 58 to 17,881 after the fed preannounced non event announcement event. Bonds up 6 on the same non event announcement, but with a few weeks to now have a floor, and a shot at a solid bounce if the world starts leaning anymore towards trump. Seems like every talking head out there thinks the pro business candidate would be bad for business. Maybe just wall street business.
Wheat gained 3 1/2 to 417 3/4. and sure acts like its building a base. Corn off 2 3/4 to 346 1/4 on more of a good thing harvest. Same story with the beans, off 6 3/4 to 986 1/2. Rice hit again by a relentless selling program, although it sure doesn't feel commercial on the sell side down here, especially with receipts being cancelled. Turned up with solid buying from 970 to 65, and bid up a little late to 972. Seller better bring a bigger bat to the game tomorrow. Dow off 58 to 17,881 after the fed preannounced non event announcement event. Bonds up 6 on the same non event announcement, but with a few weeks to now have a floor, and a shot at a solid bounce if the world starts leaning anymore towards trump. Seems like every talking head out there thinks the pro business candidate would be bad for business. Maybe just wall street business.
11/01
Grains lost a lot of leverage today, and maybe for a while. Private forecaster padded up corn and bean production, and especially In the beans, I cant argue. Corn closes 349, off 5 3/4. Wheat held up the best, only losing 2 to 414 1/4 . Beans had 100 new deliveries even though we are at most of carry, which is concerning to say the least, off 18 1/2 to 993 1/4. Rice seller back to work, pushing down 37 to 988. Another day or two for him to dance, before he has to put a lot more money in the juke box. Dow stumbled 123 today to 17,939, and really testing the technicals. Bonds up 11 to 163.02. With everyone convinced that the fed will act in December, what if they don't.
Grains lost a lot of leverage today, and maybe for a while. Private forecaster padded up corn and bean production, and especially In the beans, I cant argue. Corn closes 349, off 5 3/4. Wheat held up the best, only losing 2 to 414 1/4 . Beans had 100 new deliveries even though we are at most of carry, which is concerning to say the least, off 18 1/2 to 993 1/4. Rice seller back to work, pushing down 37 to 988. Another day or two for him to dance, before he has to put a lot more money in the juke box. Dow stumbled 123 today to 17,939, and really testing the technicals. Bonds up 11 to 163.02. With everyone convinced that the fed will act in December, what if they don't.
10/31
Wheat showing that its got some gas in the tank, up 7 3/4 to 416 1/4. Corn stuck off 1/4 in the middle of trade, 354 3/4. Same story for beans, as we switch from November to Jan. 1011 3/4. Rice in deliveries as well. Jan from here forward, and with deliveries current except for 70 or so shorts waiting to deliver, November is in the books. Jan settles 10.15. Rice and beans have played in pretty much lock step for a while. I'm feeling a change in the air. Cant you taste it? Dow churn continues, off 36 to 18,062. Bonds up 17 to 162.23. External factors are what is going to kick us off the churn, or the election, not sure which, but we do have a good shot as to the when. Its Halloween, just keep whistling past the graveyard.
Wheat showing that its got some gas in the tank, up 7 3/4 to 416 1/4. Corn stuck off 1/4 in the middle of trade, 354 3/4. Same story for beans, as we switch from November to Jan. 1011 3/4. Rice in deliveries as well. Jan from here forward, and with deliveries current except for 70 or so shorts waiting to deliver, November is in the books. Jan settles 10.15. Rice and beans have played in pretty much lock step for a while. I'm feeling a change in the air. Cant you taste it? Dow churn continues, off 36 to 18,062. Bonds up 17 to 162.23. External factors are what is going to kick us off the churn, or the election, not sure which, but we do have a good shot as to the when. Its Halloween, just keep whistling past the graveyard.
10/28
Grains took a breather, even oats. Corn off 2 1/2 to 355. They tried to push out the top but couldn't get it done this Friday, and with harvest and full bins looking cash players in the eye, money boys might not be able to . Wheat off 6 to 408 1/2. Back and fill to see if indeed we have found a wheat base for the year. Beans slipped 13 to 1001 1/4. I know we have big demand, but we have big supply, and we are no longer the supermarket to the world. Rice took it on the chin with high volume and big deliveries to boot. Off 27 1/2 to 987. This price shuts off country selling in my eyes for a month. Beans have good commercial ownership it would seem, but other than the pool, I don't see the mills with tons of rice stocks to work with. Dow up 16 at the end of another churn day, 18,098. Bonds fell 8 when the final bell rang, 162.06. I'm not sure what the rest of the global central bankers are going to do, because our financial institutions need that interest juice to keep the wheels spinning. Insurance might just be getting to be a tough space to make a living. There is only so many quarters where you can cook the books before the fire burns you. Pensions can't be playing the Ponsy scheme forever either, except for the government. That, by the way, is the official new third rail in politics . Even Trump wont touch it. That's really scary. .
Grains took a breather, even oats. Corn off 2 1/2 to 355. They tried to push out the top but couldn't get it done this Friday, and with harvest and full bins looking cash players in the eye, money boys might not be able to . Wheat off 6 to 408 1/2. Back and fill to see if indeed we have found a wheat base for the year. Beans slipped 13 to 1001 1/4. I know we have big demand, but we have big supply, and we are no longer the supermarket to the world. Rice took it on the chin with high volume and big deliveries to boot. Off 27 1/2 to 987. This price shuts off country selling in my eyes for a month. Beans have good commercial ownership it would seem, but other than the pool, I don't see the mills with tons of rice stocks to work with. Dow up 16 at the end of another churn day, 18,098. Bonds fell 8 when the final bell rang, 162.06. I'm not sure what the rest of the global central bankers are going to do, because our financial institutions need that interest juice to keep the wheels spinning. Insurance might just be getting to be a tough space to make a living. There is only so many quarters where you can cook the books before the fire burns you. Pensions can't be playing the Ponsy scheme forever either, except for the government. That, by the way, is the official new third rail in politics . Even Trump wont touch it. That's really scary. .
10/27
Corn up 3 1/2 to 357 1/2. Oats still marching higher, so don't be surprised if corn pops above 3.60 resistance for a wonderful sucker bust out top. Relatively short lived but expensive non the less. Wheat up a nickel to 414 1/2. wow. Guess we cant turn a global wheat glut around as fast. Rice up 15, the roll is pretty much done, and short didn't have much of an appetite. You take it from there. Dow slips 46 because we have big looser earnings announcements. Ignore the noise. Bonds dump a point and a half. False bust out the bottom, or is it rollover time? Probably get that answer Monday or more likely Tuesday. Don't forget we have a Monday month end, and Halloween.
Corn up 3 1/2 to 357 1/2. Oats still marching higher, so don't be surprised if corn pops above 3.60 resistance for a wonderful sucker bust out top. Relatively short lived but expensive non the less. Wheat up a nickel to 414 1/2. wow. Guess we cant turn a global wheat glut around as fast. Rice up 15, the roll is pretty much done, and short didn't have much of an appetite. You take it from there. Dow slips 46 because we have big looser earnings announcements. Ignore the noise. Bonds dump a point and a half. False bust out the bottom, or is it rollover time? Probably get that answer Monday or more likely Tuesday. Don't forget we have a Monday month end, and Halloween.
10/26
Sorry nothing published last night Quick recap. Everyone took a nap. Come back tomorrow. Now on to today. Grains all had another strong day today, lead by beans up almost 20 cents to close 10.10. Fundamental guys scratching our heads, but I wouldn't oversell old crop in front of the train just yet. Meal did the work today. Wheat up 7 1/4 to 411 1/2, and corn hitting against resistance at 354, up 4 3/4. Rice seller ran out of steam and now he is the one who better show pretty soon. Up 16 to 999 1/2. Dow still stuck in a rut, up 31 to 18,128, and bonds gave up yesterday and more to loose 24, 163.30.
Sorry nothing published last night Quick recap. Everyone took a nap. Come back tomorrow. Now on to today. Grains all had another strong day today, lead by beans up almost 20 cents to close 10.10. Fundamental guys scratching our heads, but I wouldn't oversell old crop in front of the train just yet. Meal did the work today. Wheat up 7 1/4 to 411 1/2, and corn hitting against resistance at 354, up 4 3/4. Rice seller ran out of steam and now he is the one who better show pretty soon. Up 16 to 999 1/2. Dow still stuck in a rut, up 31 to 18,128, and bonds gave up yesterday and more to loose 24, 163.30.
10/24
Beans had a good day, up 9 to 992. Started strong, tried to hold up the weight of the world, but gave up and stood alone. Meal really lent no cover, and oil had to carry the water. Ever hear about water and oil? Oats front strength gave up a nickel today, and corn gave up 4 1/4 to 348 1/4. This area better hold. Already hearing about the big white bags being filled up north, with a fair amount in the field still. Weather you are long in the field, futures, or the big white bag, a long is a long, and a break wont buy any power rangers this Christmas. Or is it the G I Joe with the kung Fu grip? Wheat dumps another 12 to 402 1/2 and looking at the old lows for support. Still a little away from that. Rice buyer didn't show early, and the seller went to town. Blood in the streets, down 44 to 985. For now. Getting some pricing farther out, but that is static bids, not chasing bids. Pretty sure we had the chat privately with all my guys last week. Dow up 68 to 18134 on merger talk and no one looking for the exit. Bonds give up 1/2 a point to 164.10.Flip a coin for tomorrow unless someone says something stupid. Stupid is not good for the stock market by the way.
Beans had a good day, up 9 to 992. Started strong, tried to hold up the weight of the world, but gave up and stood alone. Meal really lent no cover, and oil had to carry the water. Ever hear about water and oil? Oats front strength gave up a nickel today, and corn gave up 4 1/4 to 348 1/4. This area better hold. Already hearing about the big white bags being filled up north, with a fair amount in the field still. Weather you are long in the field, futures, or the big white bag, a long is a long, and a break wont buy any power rangers this Christmas. Or is it the G I Joe with the kung Fu grip? Wheat dumps another 12 to 402 1/2 and looking at the old lows for support. Still a little away from that. Rice buyer didn't show early, and the seller went to town. Blood in the streets, down 44 to 985. For now. Getting some pricing farther out, but that is static bids, not chasing bids. Pretty sure we had the chat privately with all my guys last week. Dow up 68 to 18134 on merger talk and no one looking for the exit. Bonds give up 1/2 a point to 164.10.Flip a coin for tomorrow unless someone says something stupid. Stupid is not good for the stock market by the way.
10/21
Corn survived the day up 1 1/2 to 352 1/2. I would note again the somewhat unexplained strength in oats, both flat and spread, lending a small helping hand. World supply and a strong dollar are keeping a lid on wheat, off2 1/2 to 414 1/2. Who would have thought that we would be thinking about a stronger Ruble to help the good old US be competitive. Bean option expiration kept us above 80, settling 7 1/2 higher at 983, almost guaranteeing solid exercises and new long open interest that goes with it. Rice still in the up box but twitchy, 1029. Dow a hundred off the lows to only down 42 at the end of the day, 18,066. Bond still quietly march higher, step by brutal step, 164.26, plus 5. Its really been a pretty boring October on the financial side of the game. Other than the early quick drop in bonds, both the dow and rates in general have just churned. I don't know how much longer the market can take boring. Computers need us more jumpy, and I wonder if the truth is, the jumpy ones have already made the sidelines. Be too bad if the computers got left holding the bag. Of course the US is too big for anything like a pound type trading event to take place here. We have lots of liquidity providers in a fall, right? Especially this fall.
Corn survived the day up 1 1/2 to 352 1/2. I would note again the somewhat unexplained strength in oats, both flat and spread, lending a small helping hand. World supply and a strong dollar are keeping a lid on wheat, off2 1/2 to 414 1/2. Who would have thought that we would be thinking about a stronger Ruble to help the good old US be competitive. Bean option expiration kept us above 80, settling 7 1/2 higher at 983, almost guaranteeing solid exercises and new long open interest that goes with it. Rice still in the up box but twitchy, 1029. Dow a hundred off the lows to only down 42 at the end of the day, 18,066. Bond still quietly march higher, step by brutal step, 164.26, plus 5. Its really been a pretty boring October on the financial side of the game. Other than the early quick drop in bonds, both the dow and rates in general have just churned. I don't know how much longer the market can take boring. Computers need us more jumpy, and I wonder if the truth is, the jumpy ones have already made the sidelines. Be too bad if the computers got left holding the bag. Of course the US is too big for anything like a pound type trading event to take place here. We have lots of liquidity providers in a fall, right? Especially this fall.
10/20
After an early run at resistance, corn rolled over 6 1/2 lower to 351. Acts like the top has been defined barring something significant in harvest or demand. We looked at good to great export sales across the board, and the market shrugged it off. Don't forget that bulls need fed. Wheat drops 3 1/4 to 417. If I had to pick one spot to be long it would be wheat. I have to ask, why do you have to be long anything, especially if you are already long in the bin. Beans drop 6 to 975 1/2. I still think there can be fireworks with options expiration tomorrow so don't get suckered into thinking there is more than just gambling and money flow involved. Rice off 8 but still in the comfortable up chart box at 1032 1/2. The heavy lifting gets potentially harder from here. Sometimes time is a bigger obstacle than price. Dow in the middle of a quiet range at 18,108, and the bonds keep on trudging up the debt mountain to 164.21, 14 higher. FIA was interesting this year as always, and if you haven't done it before, its worth a trip to Chicago. Kind of surprising how many fewer faces I recognized, and how much low latency product is being pushed on the show floor. If the biggest thing you have going for you is that you can cut to the front of the line, do you really think that's a sustainable business model? That's a question for every participant of the exchanges, be it trader, service provider, regulator, and even underlying exchange, to deeply consider. Its not hard to see why new and different business models are being developed. A few were cutting their teeth on the show floor yesterday, mostly unnoticed , for now. Noticed a spike in site hits when I mentioned Putin a few days ago. Don't really know how Putin would have any effect in my farmer readership. Putin. Putin. Think that will get me four times more farmers to reach? I think the increase in readership will be first in line because of their systems, and yet be of no real value to our conversation. This runs hand in hand with the whole conversation if you really think about it.
After an early run at resistance, corn rolled over 6 1/2 lower to 351. Acts like the top has been defined barring something significant in harvest or demand. We looked at good to great export sales across the board, and the market shrugged it off. Don't forget that bulls need fed. Wheat drops 3 1/4 to 417. If I had to pick one spot to be long it would be wheat. I have to ask, why do you have to be long anything, especially if you are already long in the bin. Beans drop 6 to 975 1/2. I still think there can be fireworks with options expiration tomorrow so don't get suckered into thinking there is more than just gambling and money flow involved. Rice off 8 but still in the comfortable up chart box at 1032 1/2. The heavy lifting gets potentially harder from here. Sometimes time is a bigger obstacle than price. Dow in the middle of a quiet range at 18,108, and the bonds keep on trudging up the debt mountain to 164.21, 14 higher. FIA was interesting this year as always, and if you haven't done it before, its worth a trip to Chicago. Kind of surprising how many fewer faces I recognized, and how much low latency product is being pushed on the show floor. If the biggest thing you have going for you is that you can cut to the front of the line, do you really think that's a sustainable business model? That's a question for every participant of the exchanges, be it trader, service provider, regulator, and even underlying exchange, to deeply consider. Its not hard to see why new and different business models are being developed. A few were cutting their teeth on the show floor yesterday, mostly unnoticed , for now. Noticed a spike in site hits when I mentioned Putin a few days ago. Don't really know how Putin would have any effect in my farmer readership. Putin. Putin. Think that will get me four times more farmers to reach? I think the increase in readership will be first in line because of their systems, and yet be of no real value to our conversation. This runs hand in hand with the whole conversation if you really think about it.
10/19
Corn pushing the top side and challenging resistance, up 3 3/4 to 357 1/2. December oats getting squeezed, and the old saying goes, as go oats, so goes corn might be having an effect. Maybe its always leading, never lying. You pick. Wheat stalling and catching its breath, 420 1/4. Beans popped 9 cents in front of known big export sales to 981 1/2. The money guys want to see $10, and they might get it, but don't forget Friday expiration and maybe a possibility at some cheap one day puts. Rice stayed in its box, 1040 1/2. Dow found little selling so followed its natural progression higher, up 61 to 18,125. Bonds took a breather, off 2 to 164.07
Corn pushing the top side and challenging resistance, up 3 3/4 to 357 1/2. December oats getting squeezed, and the old saying goes, as go oats, so goes corn might be having an effect. Maybe its always leading, never lying. You pick. Wheat stalling and catching its breath, 420 1/4. Beans popped 9 cents in front of known big export sales to 981 1/2. The money guys want to see $10, and they might get it, but don't forget Friday expiration and maybe a possibility at some cheap one day puts. Rice stayed in its box, 1040 1/2. Dow found little selling so followed its natural progression higher, up 61 to 18,125. Bonds took a breather, off 2 to 164.07
10/18
Corn chop, but stuck wanting 360. Another day of nothing but a reshuffle of the ownership deck, 353 3/4. Wheat slips 3 3/4 to 4.20. Beans try to continue the rally but just cant seem to find the sponsor. Minus 5 3/4 to 9.72 1/2. Folks, that's still 9.72 1/2 a bushel for a darn big carry over. Rice thinking about deliveries coming soon, and lots of November longs being rolled these last several days. 1042. Spread leaking towards carry. Dow finds 51 at the close to 18,064, while the bonds seem to be climbing a wall of worry, up 11 to 164.09. Seems like we either roll over or get a real pop pretty soon in long term fiat money. I will be downtown for the national FIA meeting tomorrow.. Text me or reply in contact section if you want a tour of the place, or want me to look something up.
Corn chop, but stuck wanting 360. Another day of nothing but a reshuffle of the ownership deck, 353 3/4. Wheat slips 3 3/4 to 4.20. Beans try to continue the rally but just cant seem to find the sponsor. Minus 5 3/4 to 9.72 1/2. Folks, that's still 9.72 1/2 a bushel for a darn big carry over. Rice thinking about deliveries coming soon, and lots of November longs being rolled these last several days. 1042. Spread leaking towards carry. Dow finds 51 at the close to 18,064, while the bonds seem to be climbing a wall of worry, up 11 to 164.09. Seems like we either roll over or get a real pop pretty soon in long term fiat money. I will be downtown for the national FIA meeting tomorrow.. Text me or reply in contact section if you want a tour of the place, or want me to look something up.
10/17
Beans were the leader of the pack, on less harvest because of weather, and big export inspections. SA weather is already be thrown out, as well as some reports of less acres going in. plus 15 3/4 to 978 1/4. Rice hit the burners as well, up 24 1/2 to 1040 1/2. The bit shorts have to be getting nervous in the rice. All the world fundamentals cant be wrong, can they? Corn found its way back to near even, 354. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 423 3/4 and starting to act tired. Options expire Friday, and I believe there is already some shuffling going on. Bean $10 calls are the easy pin, but if we slip below 940 there is fuel to power lower. Might want to remember that on a cheap flier Friday. Dow off 46 to 18,013, but honestly better than I expected. Feels like we are about to get another injection of dirty central bank money. Which puppet will get the strings pulled this time? Bonds marched all day to 163.30, up 23. Those were hard fought tics. Lets hope the generals don't give up the hill.
Beans were the leader of the pack, on less harvest because of weather, and big export inspections. SA weather is already be thrown out, as well as some reports of less acres going in. plus 15 3/4 to 978 1/4. Rice hit the burners as well, up 24 1/2 to 1040 1/2. The bit shorts have to be getting nervous in the rice. All the world fundamentals cant be wrong, can they? Corn found its way back to near even, 354. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 423 3/4 and starting to act tired. Options expire Friday, and I believe there is already some shuffling going on. Bean $10 calls are the easy pin, but if we slip below 940 there is fuel to power lower. Might want to remember that on a cheap flier Friday. Dow off 46 to 18,013, but honestly better than I expected. Feels like we are about to get another injection of dirty central bank money. Which puppet will get the strings pulled this time? Bonds marched all day to 163.30, up 23. Those were hard fought tics. Lets hope the generals don't give up the hill.
10/14
Follow thru buying early gave way to the realities of another harvest weekend, so what started as a strong across the board grain rally faded late. Everything but rice still in the positive. Corn up 4 3/4 to 354 1/4, and priced competitively still to get some more business done. Wheat up a nickel to 421, and again, globally competitive. Beans up 6 1/4, and I have some issues with how we are going to clear this years crop. Rice off 7 to 1016, but still in the upward channel. Dow slipped late but closed up 38 points, settling 18,059. Bonds lose 1.24 to 163.07, and peeking out of the bottom of the churn range. If interest rates are really going to run up, there's plenty of time to hop the train. I'm not convinced this isn't a sucker bet going into a healthy bounce. Sidelines look to be a safe place this week in the dow to me for now. Don't believe Putin starts talking and then just quits. Of course, I'm a trader, and if the information changes, I change with it.
Follow thru buying early gave way to the realities of another harvest weekend, so what started as a strong across the board grain rally faded late. Everything but rice still in the positive. Corn up 4 3/4 to 354 1/4, and priced competitively still to get some more business done. Wheat up a nickel to 421, and again, globally competitive. Beans up 6 1/4, and I have some issues with how we are going to clear this years crop. Rice off 7 to 1016, but still in the upward channel. Dow slipped late but closed up 38 points, settling 18,059. Bonds lose 1.24 to 163.07, and peeking out of the bottom of the churn range. If interest rates are really going to run up, there's plenty of time to hop the train. I'm not convinced this isn't a sucker bet going into a healthy bounce. Sidelines look to be a safe place this week in the dow to me for now. Don't believe Putin starts talking and then just quits. Of course, I'm a trader, and if the information changes, I change with it.
10/13
New grain shorts sure didn't see daylight for long. Wheat has a base, and it launched from there, up 19 1/4 to 416. Corned followed up 12 1/2, 349 1/2 . Meal found a bid and beans had no place to go but up, 10 3/4 higher, settles 956 1/4. Rice up a nickel and against a big offer, 10.23. Dow spent the day in the hole but rallied late to only down 32, 18,021. Putin is rattling the saber a little harder than usual, so I'm going looking for the sidelines again. Seems like DC would wet itself and then try to convince the rest of the world we meant to. I peed myself firmly and with great empathy for those who cant . Bonds up 28, 164.31. Anybody's guess on this right now.
New grain shorts sure didn't see daylight for long. Wheat has a base, and it launched from there, up 19 1/4 to 416. Corned followed up 12 1/2, 349 1/2 . Meal found a bid and beans had no place to go but up, 10 3/4 higher, settles 956 1/4. Rice up a nickel and against a big offer, 10.23. Dow spent the day in the hole but rallied late to only down 32, 18,021. Putin is rattling the saber a little harder than usual, so I'm going looking for the sidelines again. Seems like DC would wet itself and then try to convince the rest of the world we meant to. I peed myself firmly and with great empathy for those who cant . Bonds up 28, 164.31. Anybody's guess on this right now.
10/12
I could pick the grain report apart, but after a few minutes of reflection, the market did it for me. Corn looking at 2.3 carry over, off 8 1/2 to 337. Wheat had the best report in my book, still with quite the excess, but lost 10 1/2 to 396 3/4. Beans tried to put up a rally, a peek over 70, failed and drove down to 945 1/2, off 8 3/4. Rice report was a travesty, embarrassment, and whatever else you want to use to describe flawed numbers. Still a bearish report we will be stuck with. Minus 21 1/2 to 10.18. Rice is the only grain that didn't do or come close to doing significant technical damage. Tomorrow will show us how serious the rice buyer of late really is. Dow tried and failed, off 17 to 18,053 so no bounce off yesterdays disappointing trade. Bonds weak early but came back only down 8 at 164.03. The dirty central bank money is finding it harder and harder to find its way to the equities. Time for the fed to move.
I could pick the grain report apart, but after a few minutes of reflection, the market did it for me. Corn looking at 2.3 carry over, off 8 1/2 to 337. Wheat had the best report in my book, still with quite the excess, but lost 10 1/2 to 396 3/4. Beans tried to put up a rally, a peek over 70, failed and drove down to 945 1/2, off 8 3/4. Rice report was a travesty, embarrassment, and whatever else you want to use to describe flawed numbers. Still a bearish report we will be stuck with. Minus 21 1/2 to 10.18. Rice is the only grain that didn't do or come close to doing significant technical damage. Tomorrow will show us how serious the rice buyer of late really is. Dow tried and failed, off 17 to 18,053 so no bounce off yesterdays disappointing trade. Bonds weak early but came back only down 8 at 164.03. The dirty central bank money is finding it harder and harder to find its way to the equities. Time for the fed to move.
10/11
More shorts came out of corn and wheat today in front of tomorrows report, up a few each to 345 1/2 and 407 1/4. Up to the report from here, and some of the short pressure has been relieved. Nothing in the beans, 954 1/4 and everyone wondering how good the government numbers will be. Rice up 16 as the rally continues to 1039 1/2. Someone knows something fundamentally that the rest of us don't. This isn't just a chart paint. Dow fails 189 to 18,070 and that's on a rally off the lows late. Bonds plus 6 to 164.11. Still low but if the dow doesn't get some love soon, I still look for the rally in bonds to ensue.. If there is no flight to quality on this one, there is no quality.
More shorts came out of corn and wheat today in front of tomorrows report, up a few each to 345 1/2 and 407 1/4. Up to the report from here, and some of the short pressure has been relieved. Nothing in the beans, 954 1/4 and everyone wondering how good the government numbers will be. Rice up 16 as the rally continues to 1039 1/2. Someone knows something fundamentally that the rest of us don't. This isn't just a chart paint. Dow fails 189 to 18,070 and that's on a rally off the lows late. Bonds plus 6 to 164.11. Still low but if the dow doesn't get some love soon, I still look for the rally in bonds to ensue.. If there is no flight to quality on this one, there is no quality.
10/10
Commitments of traders had a bigger short in corn, and especially wheat, than expected, and that brought out the buyers. Wheat up 9 to 403 3/4 and corn up 3 1/2 to 343 1/4. Beans leaked a couple to 954 1/2. Rice chart paint keeps on coming, working back to the upper end to 1023 1/2. Still some room to go by my feel. Dow popped 102 to 18,259 on yet another dull Monday rally. Don't sell a dull Monday. Bonds off 24, 164.05. That's about a point lower than I expected in the churn. I'm patient for now, but radar will be up by the end of the week if we don't see the expected rally.
Commitments of traders had a bigger short in corn, and especially wheat, than expected, and that brought out the buyers. Wheat up 9 to 403 3/4 and corn up 3 1/2 to 343 1/4. Beans leaked a couple to 954 1/2. Rice chart paint keeps on coming, working back to the upper end to 1023 1/2. Still some room to go by my feel. Dow popped 102 to 18,259 on yet another dull Monday rally. Don't sell a dull Monday. Bonds off 24, 164.05. That's about a point lower than I expected in the churn. I'm patient for now, but radar will be up by the end of the week if we don't see the expected rally.
10/7
Nothing could hold early strength, loosing 3/4 of a cent to 1 3/4 across the grain board, as expected going into another long harvest weekend. Corn closes below 40 at 3.39 3/4 and wheat off a penny to 394 3/4. Beans gave up a reasonable rally to end 956 3/4. Rice still in the tighter and tighter range, 1009 1/2. Dow settled middle of the days range at 18,157, off 42, while bonds slipped 5 to 164.29. Commitments of traders report puts me a little on edge going into the Wednesday report short wheat, and corn for that matter as well.
Sorry for the late report, I was monitoring the market from the road on Friday heading for a lemons race in Michigan, and with a dull day Friday, didn't see the hurry. About the race for those who want to know. Approximately 120 cars took the flag on 2 mile ginger man road course. We got a poor starting position at 101st place, but the car worked flawlessly, and in my 1:45 hour stint had us up to 28 th place. Thru the rest of the day we moved up in to the top 15. Sunday started well, but a slight contact and coinciding off track by Jimmy cost us 6-7 minutes in the pits for quick repair. With that many cars on the track racing for position at every corner, things like that happen. Joe got stuck coming off with a shifter problem. I'm sticking to solid preparation, but a bit of bad luck and a 25 year old part failure can happen. Another 6-7 minutes for repair pretty much put us out of contention. We still finished in the top 20, drove the car on the trailer, got home safely, and all 4 drivers had a ball. In racing, that's a great weekend.
Nothing could hold early strength, loosing 3/4 of a cent to 1 3/4 across the grain board, as expected going into another long harvest weekend. Corn closes below 40 at 3.39 3/4 and wheat off a penny to 394 3/4. Beans gave up a reasonable rally to end 956 3/4. Rice still in the tighter and tighter range, 1009 1/2. Dow settled middle of the days range at 18,157, off 42, while bonds slipped 5 to 164.29. Commitments of traders report puts me a little on edge going into the Wednesday report short wheat, and corn for that matter as well.
Sorry for the late report, I was monitoring the market from the road on Friday heading for a lemons race in Michigan, and with a dull day Friday, didn't see the hurry. About the race for those who want to know. Approximately 120 cars took the flag on 2 mile ginger man road course. We got a poor starting position at 101st place, but the car worked flawlessly, and in my 1:45 hour stint had us up to 28 th place. Thru the rest of the day we moved up in to the top 15. Sunday started well, but a slight contact and coinciding off track by Jimmy cost us 6-7 minutes in the pits for quick repair. With that many cars on the track racing for position at every corner, things like that happen. Joe got stuck coming off with a shifter problem. I'm sticking to solid preparation, but a bit of bad luck and a 25 year old part failure can happen. Another 6-7 minutes for repair pretty much put us out of contention. We still finished in the top 20, drove the car on the trailer, got home safely, and all 4 drivers had a ball. In racing, that's a great weekend.
10/6
Corn ran out of breath today, dragging wheat with it. Decent sales but another weekend of harvest is about upon us. Corn off 7 1/4 to 340 1/2, while wheat hit even harder , off 9 1/4 to 395 3/4. Beans looked dangerously like it might be done, but rebounded nicely late to higher on the day by a penny and 3 bits, 958 1/2. Still a reasonable basis in some places to get a little more pricing done. South America acres are putting some scary production numbers out there. Long time until they harvest, but I don't want to be in the way if they even come close to a few early forecasts. Never thought I'd say it, but there aren't enough Chinese in the world for that kind of supply. Rice chart still in the paint by numbers mode, up 7 to 10.11. Tomorrows commitments will tell an interesting story there. We know its a short cover. Is it managed money or is it other reportable? Dow lower early, but recovered to zilch, 18,199. No conviction, just very little resistance. Don't trust it. Bonds off 21 to ,165.02. Still comfortable with a long here. Greenspan finally spat out, literally, stagflation today. We all know its out there and the risk is ugly, but he just gave us simple people credit, and permission to put it in the mainstream. First time I've heard M2 for a while. Wont be the last. Time to dust off the old money supply books.
Corn ran out of breath today, dragging wheat with it. Decent sales but another weekend of harvest is about upon us. Corn off 7 1/4 to 340 1/2, while wheat hit even harder , off 9 1/4 to 395 3/4. Beans looked dangerously like it might be done, but rebounded nicely late to higher on the day by a penny and 3 bits, 958 1/2. Still a reasonable basis in some places to get a little more pricing done. South America acres are putting some scary production numbers out there. Long time until they harvest, but I don't want to be in the way if they even come close to a few early forecasts. Never thought I'd say it, but there aren't enough Chinese in the world for that kind of supply. Rice chart still in the paint by numbers mode, up 7 to 10.11. Tomorrows commitments will tell an interesting story there. We know its a short cover. Is it managed money or is it other reportable? Dow lower early, but recovered to zilch, 18,199. No conviction, just very little resistance. Don't trust it. Bonds off 21 to ,165.02. Still comfortable with a long here. Greenspan finally spat out, literally, stagflation today. We all know its out there and the risk is ugly, but he just gave us simple people credit, and permission to put it in the mainstream. First time I've heard M2 for a while. Wont be the last. Time to dust off the old money supply books.
10/5
Corn took the pause today, 347 3/4. Wheat shorts couldn't find anyone else to come to the dance, and buying ensued. 405, up 9 1/2. Beans taking more hedging pressure off 6 3/4 to 9.56 3/4. I think we are going to need a bigger boat. Rice off 5 1/2 but still in the range,, 1004. Dow got its Monday bounce late again, up 108 to 18,200. Bonds close off 23 at 165.23, with a low of 09. BTW, looking back 3 weeks gives us the same low settle 165.09, at the bottom of the last churn. You take it from there. I did.
Corn took the pause today, 347 3/4. Wheat shorts couldn't find anyone else to come to the dance, and buying ensued. 405, up 9 1/2. Beans taking more hedging pressure off 6 3/4 to 9.56 3/4. I think we are going to need a bigger boat. Rice off 5 1/2 but still in the range,, 1004. Dow got its Monday bounce late again, up 108 to 18,200. Bonds close off 23 at 165.23, with a low of 09. BTW, looking back 3 weeks gives us the same low settle 165.09, at the bottom of the last churn. You take it from there. I did.
10/4
Corn is finding its way to the bin at home rather than the elevator at a bigger pace than wanted, and with a short spec open interest we have had a bit of a rally, up 2 1/4 to 348 1/4. I think another dime is possible depending on basis in the country, but it might be time to take a little over a loss down the road. Beans closed on the top yesterday, and no ,follow thru early lead to selling the rest of the day.963 1/2, off 9.1/2. Yields are high, but starting to hear from more people about the negative results of SDS. Wheat was a wash at 395 1/2. Rice bull still painting the chart up 3, 1009 1/2. Love these guys. Without them, the rice farmer might not have a shot at a profit. Dow off 64 to 18,092. Bonds drop to 166.14, off 1.20. Split the hairs from two weeks ago Tuesday and Wednesday, and here we are again. If you can't see this churn from a mile away, you better stop trading.
Corn is finding its way to the bin at home rather than the elevator at a bigger pace than wanted, and with a short spec open interest we have had a bit of a rally, up 2 1/4 to 348 1/4. I think another dime is possible depending on basis in the country, but it might be time to take a little over a loss down the road. Beans closed on the top yesterday, and no ,follow thru early lead to selling the rest of the day.963 1/2, off 9.1/2. Yields are high, but starting to hear from more people about the negative results of SDS. Wheat was a wash at 395 1/2. Rice bull still painting the chart up 3, 1009 1/2. Love these guys. Without them, the rice farmer might not have a shot at a profit. Dow off 64 to 18,092. Bonds drop to 166.14, off 1.20. Split the hairs from two weeks ago Tuesday and Wednesday, and here we are again. If you can't see this churn from a mile away, you better stop trading.
10/3
Bonds off 3 to 168.02, and dow off 63 to 18,156. Argy is going to keep up the bean tax, and that's all it took, up 19 to 9.73. I hope it has wings, and seasonal say it might, but not putting any money on it. Rice shorts started to exit, up 18 to 10.06 1/2 and a new long sponsor. Corn got in the act as well, up 9 1/4 to 3.46. Don't see a ton of upside on this one. Wheat couldn't find a bid all day until late, and still down 6 1/2 to 395 1/2.
Bonds off 3 to 168.02, and dow off 63 to 18,156. Argy is going to keep up the bean tax, and that's all it took, up 19 to 9.73. I hope it has wings, and seasonal say it might, but not putting any money on it. Rice shorts started to exit, up 18 to 10.06 1/2 and a new long sponsor. Corn got in the act as well, up 9 1/4 to 3.46. Don't see a ton of upside on this one. Wheat couldn't find a bid all day until late, and still down 6 1/2 to 395 1/2.
9/30
Bonds drop 1.15 to 168.05. Top of the range may be set unless the fix for Deutche bank falls apart. You see, America is allowed to soft tax American banks with fines, but the EU isn't going to stand for us doing it to their banks for doing the same crimes. Will be interesting to see how it all unwinds. At the minimum. good for Apple. Dow pops 122 for a strong month end close 18,219.
All the grains closed strong even though the report didn't give much cause. Rice up 11.5 to 988 1/2. Beans close 954, wheat up 3 as well to 402, and corn pot on a show, up 7 1/2 to 336 3/4. Will make for an interesting trade Monday, as I'm sure no crops will be harvested this weekend.
Bonds drop 1.15 to 168.05. Top of the range may be set unless the fix for Deutche bank falls apart. You see, America is allowed to soft tax American banks with fines, but the EU isn't going to stand for us doing it to their banks for doing the same crimes. Will be interesting to see how it all unwinds. At the minimum. good for Apple. Dow pops 122 for a strong month end close 18,219.
All the grains closed strong even though the report didn't give much cause. Rice up 11.5 to 988 1/2. Beans close 954, wheat up 3 as well to 402, and corn pot on a show, up 7 1/2 to 336 3/4. Will make for an interesting trade Monday, as I'm sure no crops will be harvested this weekend.
9/29
Got the strong break in the dow to help bonds up 12, 169.20. Dow recovers almost 100 points to close down 141, 18,097. Pay close attention to the little global bank issue in the news, and I'm not talking about the perp walk that Wells Fargo is going thru. Humpty dumpty has fallen, but has yet to hit the ground. Lets watch how fragile is the net that the worlds central bankers put together to catch our European bank. When the talking heads talk about derivatives, these are bets placed by at least one of the parties involved, and lots of times by both parties. Neither has all the money to cover a collapse, but everyone acts like its all good. Until it isn't. The fed stepped in here at home and did some crazy stuff at the time to keep the sh** out of the fan, and we still haven't unwound the mess. I'm out of fingers to count the years. Fed cant do that much with this one. BOJ cant do that much. ECB can't jawbone its way thru this one. I already stepped to the side to watch the show. When the elephants dance, grass gets trampled. Don't be the grass.
I don't expect much from tomorrows reports, other than a reason to churn, or push an agenda. What is getting harvested is big. Really big. Corn unchanged, 329 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 399. Beans with a small bounce to 950 1/4, but not much love for the rally. Rice plus 3 and still being worked by Monet, 977, but soon van Gogh will pick up the brush. You have been warned and the lines will get blurry. Lend an ear anyone?
Got the strong break in the dow to help bonds up 12, 169.20. Dow recovers almost 100 points to close down 141, 18,097. Pay close attention to the little global bank issue in the news, and I'm not talking about the perp walk that Wells Fargo is going thru. Humpty dumpty has fallen, but has yet to hit the ground. Lets watch how fragile is the net that the worlds central bankers put together to catch our European bank. When the talking heads talk about derivatives, these are bets placed by at least one of the parties involved, and lots of times by both parties. Neither has all the money to cover a collapse, but everyone acts like its all good. Until it isn't. The fed stepped in here at home and did some crazy stuff at the time to keep the sh** out of the fan, and we still haven't unwound the mess. I'm out of fingers to count the years. Fed cant do that much with this one. BOJ cant do that much. ECB can't jawbone its way thru this one. I already stepped to the side to watch the show. When the elephants dance, grass gets trampled. Don't be the grass.
I don't expect much from tomorrows reports, other than a reason to churn, or push an agenda. What is getting harvested is big. Really big. Corn unchanged, 329 1/4. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 399. Beans with a small bounce to 950 1/4, but not much love for the rally. Rice plus 3 and still being worked by Monet, 977, but soon van Gogh will pick up the brush. You have been warned and the lines will get blurry. Lend an ear anyone?
9/28
Bonds stalled and settled off 6, 169.08. Will need a strong dow break to get much more of a bump in rates on the long side. Dow filled the upside air created last week, plus 99 to 18,238. Harder path up from here as well. Grains are trying to find an equilibrium going into Friday. Corn backs up 2 1/2 to 3.29 1/4, while wheat slips 3/4 to 403 1/4. Beans give up 7 on more stories of great yields, 9.45 1/2. Rice chart paint by numbers is in full effect, off 4 to close after and up and down stroke, but no damage done settling 9.74
Bonds stalled and settled off 6, 169.08. Will need a strong dow break to get much more of a bump in rates on the long side. Dow filled the upside air created last week, plus 99 to 18,238. Harder path up from here as well. Grains are trying to find an equilibrium going into Friday. Corn backs up 2 1/2 to 3.29 1/4, while wheat slips 3/4 to 403 1/4. Beans give up 7 on more stories of great yields, 9.45 1/2. Rice chart paint by numbers is in full effect, off 4 to close after and up and down stroke, but no damage done settling 9.74
9/27
Breaks in the grains ran out of gas, and short covering rally ensued. Wheat gained 8 to 404, and corn found 2 3/4 to 331 3/4. Beans pop 7 1/4 to 9.52 1/2. Rice stuck in a range but settles on top side up a dime to 9.78. Bonds moved up a little more aggressively today, 1.06 to 169.14. Dow found its legs, got its upward runner breath, and pushed up 125 to 18.139. Don't let yourself get caught up in the churn.
Breaks in the grains ran out of gas, and short covering rally ensued. Wheat gained 8 to 404, and corn found 2 3/4 to 331 3/4. Beans pop 7 1/4 to 9.52 1/2. Rice stuck in a range but settles on top side up a dime to 9.78. Bonds moved up a little more aggressively today, 1.06 to 169.14. Dow found its legs, got its upward runner breath, and pushed up 125 to 18.139. Don't let yourself get caught up in the churn.
9/26
A good harvest weekend for most, and pressure that follows for the grains. Corn back under 3.30 to 3.29 and down7 1/2. Wheat had good sales but still down 8 3/4 to 3.96. Beas loose 9 3/4 to 9.45 1/4. Those oct 9.50 calls are already under water. Rice held up 2 1/2 to 9.67 1/2 and the chart boys are defending, so far. The old never sell a dull Monday held no water today, off 176 in the dow to 18,014.Theres over 200 points of upside air there, so be wary of selling an upward runner, but dow sure feels heavy to me still. Bonds continue their upward reset, 168.08.
A good harvest weekend for most, and pressure that follows for the grains. Corn back under 3.30 to 3.29 and down7 1/2. Wheat had good sales but still down 8 3/4 to 3.96. Beas loose 9 3/4 to 9.45 1/4. Those oct 9.50 calls are already under water. Rice held up 2 1/2 to 9.67 1/2 and the chart boys are defending, so far. The old never sell a dull Monday held no water today, off 176 in the dow to 18,014.Theres over 200 points of upside air there, so be wary of selling an upward runner, but dow sure feels heavy to me still. Bonds continue their upward reset, 168.08.
9/23
Corn and wheat still asleep, 336 1/2 and 404 3/4. Beans took it on the chin going into what should be a solid harvest weekend, off 21 1/2 to 9.55. Rice lost a penny to 9.65, but don't let the dull day fool you. Lots of interesting things flowing below the surface, and we should see something raise its head this coming week. As expected, dow short termers took the easy money, dow slipping 109 to 18,190. Let the new week begin. Bonds trickle up 10 tics to 167.26.
Corn and wheat still asleep, 336 1/2 and 404 3/4. Beans took it on the chin going into what should be a solid harvest weekend, off 21 1/2 to 9.55. Rice lost a penny to 9.65, but don't let the dull day fool you. Lots of interesting things flowing below the surface, and we should see something raise its head this coming week. As expected, dow short termers took the easy money, dow slipping 109 to 18,190. Let the new week begin. Bonds trickle up 10 tics to 167.26.
9/22
Another sleeper in the grains. Corn off 3 1/4 to 336 3/4 and wheat in tow, off 2 1/4 to 405 1/2. Rice9.66 and beans 9.76 1/2, nothing to report. Bean yields seem stellar while corn and rice both are off expected production numbers. Just a matter of when the USDA catches up . Dow used its second day up chip today and so did bonds. I get the bonds. I'm thinking 300 tics is enough for the short term dow guys this week.
Another sleeper in the grains. Corn off 3 1/4 to 336 3/4 and wheat in tow, off 2 1/4 to 405 1/2. Rice9.66 and beans 9.76 1/2, nothing to report. Bean yields seem stellar while corn and rice both are off expected production numbers. Just a matter of when the USDA catches up . Dow used its second day up chip today and so did bonds. I get the bonds. I'm thinking 300 tics is enough for the short term dow guys this week.
9/21
Dull corn and wheat day. Corn weighing a big crop against big demand and lower acres for next year, off 1/2 to 340. Wheat happy about Egypt playing nice in the market for now, but unlikely that we sell much US wheat against the Russians and EU, still up 1 3/4 to 407 3/4. I think the big wheat short has more to do with pricing for now than real news. Beans showing some cracks, and meal is the key as noted yesterday, down 14 1/4 to 9.75 1/2. Rice delivery news gives the bear a stronger roar, off 22 , 967 1/2. Yellen spoke about nothing, and not much happened. Then as the day progressed and she started explaining what nothing really meant in the context of nothingness, the market found a bid and ran with it. Bears got so confused they forgot how to sell. For the day. Maybe two. Up 171, 18,218. Bonds creeped up as well, plus 19 to 166.19. I think Ill watch from the sidelines as this one unfolds.
Dull corn and wheat day. Corn weighing a big crop against big demand and lower acres for next year, off 1/2 to 340. Wheat happy about Egypt playing nice in the market for now, but unlikely that we sell much US wheat against the Russians and EU, still up 1 3/4 to 407 3/4. I think the big wheat short has more to do with pricing for now than real news. Beans showing some cracks, and meal is the key as noted yesterday, down 14 1/4 to 9.75 1/2. Rice delivery news gives the bear a stronger roar, off 22 , 967 1/2. Yellen spoke about nothing, and not much happened. Then as the day progressed and she started explaining what nothing really meant in the context of nothingness, the market found a bid and ran with it. Bears got so confused they forgot how to sell. For the day. Maybe two. Up 171, 18,218. Bonds creeped up as well, plus 19 to 166.19. I think Ill watch from the sidelines as this one unfolds.
9/20
Beans continue the march up 17 1/4 to 9.89 3/4. Oil led rallies are not to be trusted. Wheat up a couple to 406, and corn up 3 1/4 to 340 1/2. Unless the shorts get aggressive in an unwind, the upward sailing gets tougher from here. Rice up 13 1/2 to 9.89 1/2 and 350 receipts registered from Riceland. Why would the coop with most of the carry over wait this late to register receipts to deliver against September? Got to be more to this story. Hit me with the answer under contact if you have it. Dull lead up to Yellen, bonds up 9 to 166 and dow dead in the water, 18.047. Financials might get a LOT more interesting tomorrow.
Beans continue the march up 17 1/4 to 9.89 3/4. Oil led rallies are not to be trusted. Wheat up a couple to 406, and corn up 3 1/4 to 340 1/2. Unless the shorts get aggressive in an unwind, the upward sailing gets tougher from here. Rice up 13 1/2 to 9.89 1/2 and 350 receipts registered from Riceland. Why would the coop with most of the carry over wait this late to register receipts to deliver against September? Got to be more to this story. Hit me with the answer under contact if you have it. Dull lead up to Yellen, bonds up 9 to 166 and dow dead in the water, 18.047. Financials might get a LOT more interesting tomorrow.
9/19
Dull is the best way to describe the day. Corn and wheat up nearly nothing, 337 1/4, and 4.04. Beans tried to rally, tried to fail, and bounced back to close up 6 1/2, 9.72 1/2. Rice had a seller sitting on top, closing off 5 1/2, 9.76 Dow off a tic at 18.052 and bonds up2 tics to 165.23. Expect some financial fireworks with Yellen at the helm on Wednesday. Beans have a bid to source some old crop sales, but I wonder if there will be enough demand for what is about to hit the bin. Very good time to understand how basis can work for you.
Dull is the best way to describe the day. Corn and wheat up nearly nothing, 337 1/4, and 4.04. Beans tried to rally, tried to fail, and bounced back to close up 6 1/2, 9.72 1/2. Rice had a seller sitting on top, closing off 5 1/2, 9.76 Dow off a tic at 18.052 and bonds up2 tics to 165.23. Expect some financial fireworks with Yellen at the helm on Wednesday. Beans have a bid to source some old crop sales, but I wonder if there will be enough demand for what is about to hit the bin. Very good time to understand how basis can work for you.
9/16
Disbelief of crop size, along with a too short market make up allows for a continued covering rally. Corn up 7 to 3.37, and wheat up 3 3/4 to 4.03 1/4. Beans have little resistance up 15 to 9.66. Rice barely up at all, 9.81 1/2. Early calls have beans up a dime and the other grains firm, but I don't see giant wings here. Dow gives up 62 to 18,053 and bonds gain 8 to 165.21. Dull early Monday morning so far,
8:30 edit. I wouldn't trade the dow today, even though it is dull and Monday. It concerns me deeply that we can have 3 terrorist events on our shores and the market is so far shrugging it off. We watched the transformation to everyday terrorism with Israel, and they now deal with that stuff all the time. I hope we don't go there, but maybe we already have. What a sad commentary on our society if so.
Disbelief of crop size, along with a too short market make up allows for a continued covering rally. Corn up 7 to 3.37, and wheat up 3 3/4 to 4.03 1/4. Beans have little resistance up 15 to 9.66. Rice barely up at all, 9.81 1/2. Early calls have beans up a dime and the other grains firm, but I don't see giant wings here. Dow gives up 62 to 18,053 and bonds gain 8 to 165.21. Dull early Monday morning so far,
8:30 edit. I wouldn't trade the dow today, even though it is dull and Monday. It concerns me deeply that we can have 3 terrorist events on our shores and the market is so far shrugging it off. We watched the transformation to everyday terrorism with Israel, and they now deal with that stuff all the time. I hope we don't go there, but maybe we already have. What a sad commentary on our society if so.
9/15
Grains trying to settle in to a price where volume can move. Corn right back to 3.30 in listless trade, with wheat off 3 1/2 to 3.99 1/2. Beans popped 7 3/4 to 9.50 1/2, mainly on lack of selling. Rice gave back a dime to 9.79, as the bulls and bears dance. In the grains other than rice, this will be the first hard harvest weekend, and I don't ever go home long into that scenario. Especially with what might be coming out. Already have seen the wheat and rice stored out of bins, wait until you see the man made corn mounds. Financials off a little in the bonds to 165.13, while the dow gained 195 to 18,115. This patient is getting sicker, but the doctors cant agree on a diagnosis, yet alone a cure. Small shot in the arm for yesterday doesn't cure anything, And our central banker doctors don't realize that the dosing is wrong. Dr. ECB said, I prescribed 80 billion this month, why did the patient only get 25? Gee doctor, some just gets used up or lost on the way. Until the Doctor changes the way the drug is administered instead of just upping the dosage, nothing will change, except maybe more entitled administrators.
Grains trying to settle in to a price where volume can move. Corn right back to 3.30 in listless trade, with wheat off 3 1/2 to 3.99 1/2. Beans popped 7 3/4 to 9.50 1/2, mainly on lack of selling. Rice gave back a dime to 9.79, as the bulls and bears dance. In the grains other than rice, this will be the first hard harvest weekend, and I don't ever go home long into that scenario. Especially with what might be coming out. Already have seen the wheat and rice stored out of bins, wait until you see the man made corn mounds. Financials off a little in the bonds to 165.13, while the dow gained 195 to 18,115. This patient is getting sicker, but the doctors cant agree on a diagnosis, yet alone a cure. Small shot in the arm for yesterday doesn't cure anything, And our central banker doctors don't realize that the dosing is wrong. Dr. ECB said, I prescribed 80 billion this month, why did the patient only get 25? Gee doctor, some just gets used up or lost on the way. Until the Doctor changes the way the drug is administered instead of just upping the dosage, nothing will change, except maybe more entitled administrators.
9/14
Rice gains 28 to 9.89 1/2 on unknown reasons other than the chart. That's as good of a reason as any right now. Other than beans, export sales are nothing to write home about. Other grains settled in to the new numbers. Corn found some buying later in the day to close up 1 3/4 at 3.31 3/4. Wheat likewise bounced a couple to 4.03. Beans slipped barely to 9.42 3/4. Everyone is waiting for the computers for guidance. Maybe we are closer to 1984 that we want to admit. Hal, what is the price of beans today? Dow still skittish, off 89 to 17.920. Don't worry, Should be enough dirty central bank money left to carry us thru Friday, and the club is surely trying to figure out how to plug the holes. Apparently capitalists are still smarter than bureaucrats . What's a good central banker supposed to do? Print even more money anyone? I've never been a gold and silver bug, but at some point, somethings got to give. Bonds up 19 to 165.28
Rice gains 28 to 9.89 1/2 on unknown reasons other than the chart. That's as good of a reason as any right now. Other than beans, export sales are nothing to write home about. Other grains settled in to the new numbers. Corn found some buying later in the day to close up 1 3/4 at 3.31 3/4. Wheat likewise bounced a couple to 4.03. Beans slipped barely to 9.42 3/4. Everyone is waiting for the computers for guidance. Maybe we are closer to 1984 that we want to admit. Hal, what is the price of beans today? Dow still skittish, off 89 to 17.920. Don't worry, Should be enough dirty central bank money left to carry us thru Friday, and the club is surely trying to figure out how to plug the holes. Apparently capitalists are still smarter than bureaucrats . What's a good central banker supposed to do? Print even more money anyone? I've never been a gold and silver bug, but at some point, somethings got to give. Bonds up 19 to 165.28
9/13
Those in denial of yesterdays grain reports re-read them, and adjusted. Everything softer. Corn looses 9 1/2 to 3.30, and wheat off 8 1/4 to 4.01. Beans give up two dimes to 9.44, failing at a few attempts to bounce during the day. Rice off 12 1/2 when the bull backed off sponsorship, 961 1/2. Dow gave up yesterdays gains, off 237 to 18,009. Bonds spooked on more fed interest rate hike talk, off a point and a half to 165.09. This one surprises me a bit. Starting to wonder if Goldman has made the call to put the fed in action. Willing to forgo the equities to provide yield, when the rest of the world is going negative. Might want to re-read comments from 9/9 on that one. Going to be a tough lead up to the election if that's the case. Just curious, but higher interest rates mean a larger deficit, all things being equal, right. So Obama blows out the debt ceiling like no other president in history, with give away programs, and Trump or Biden inherit a larger deficit out of the box, so rich people can get a check for being rich. The rest of the world has already stopped the interest subsidy, but good old USA isn't the rest of the world. I can't borrow now, and don't think I will be able to a 1/4 or half point higher. Not that there's anything I want to borrow for anyway. DC doesn't want independents. Isn't the frustration with the elites why Trump has traction in the first place?
Those in denial of yesterdays grain reports re-read them, and adjusted. Everything softer. Corn looses 9 1/2 to 3.30, and wheat off 8 1/4 to 4.01. Beans give up two dimes to 9.44, failing at a few attempts to bounce during the day. Rice off 12 1/2 when the bull backed off sponsorship, 961 1/2. Dow gave up yesterdays gains, off 237 to 18,009. Bonds spooked on more fed interest rate hike talk, off a point and a half to 165.09. This one surprises me a bit. Starting to wonder if Goldman has made the call to put the fed in action. Willing to forgo the equities to provide yield, when the rest of the world is going negative. Might want to re-read comments from 9/9 on that one. Going to be a tough lead up to the election if that's the case. Just curious, but higher interest rates mean a larger deficit, all things being equal, right. So Obama blows out the debt ceiling like no other president in history, with give away programs, and Trump or Biden inherit a larger deficit out of the box, so rich people can get a check for being rich. The rest of the world has already stopped the interest subsidy, but good old USA isn't the rest of the world. I can't borrow now, and don't think I will be able to a 1/4 or half point higher. Not that there's anything I want to borrow for anyway. DC doesn't want independents. Isn't the frustration with the elites why Trump has traction in the first place?
9/12
Grain report was bearish, plain and simple. Too big of a corn crop, but enough short specs going in to hold a floor a day, off 1.5 to 3.39 1/2. I'm afraid in a month you will look at 3.40 corn with a tear in your eye. Wheat gained 5 3/4 on spread unwinds and short covering. The world has plenty of it as well. 4.09 1/4. Beans lost 16 to 9.64 1/4. That was kind as well. Carry in dropped to 195. I figured it would take 2 reports to get there, and the USDA did it in one. Cant argue yield at this point either, and some would argue it higher yet. Will question usage, and not in a bullish way. Rice could not have been a more bearish report, but closed up 22 to 9.74. Carry In raised as predicted, production dropped as predicted, but then as an added bonus for a bear, domestic use, residual, fudge number, reduced a couple to bump carry over UP. Either we have a crazy man with a chart buying, or the big coop has some REALLY big export deals booked. Not disclosed to the commoner.
Financials. In case you forgot, never sell a dull Monday dow. How many times do you have to hear Jamie Dimon wants the fed to raise interest rates before you realize its a dull Monday. Hello, he is a banker. Of course he wants higher interest rates. Bonds couldn't break, so 166.25 close. We are on shaky ground. Dow better hold.
Grain report was bearish, plain and simple. Too big of a corn crop, but enough short specs going in to hold a floor a day, off 1.5 to 3.39 1/2. I'm afraid in a month you will look at 3.40 corn with a tear in your eye. Wheat gained 5 3/4 on spread unwinds and short covering. The world has plenty of it as well. 4.09 1/4. Beans lost 16 to 9.64 1/4. That was kind as well. Carry in dropped to 195. I figured it would take 2 reports to get there, and the USDA did it in one. Cant argue yield at this point either, and some would argue it higher yet. Will question usage, and not in a bullish way. Rice could not have been a more bearish report, but closed up 22 to 9.74. Carry In raised as predicted, production dropped as predicted, but then as an added bonus for a bear, domestic use, residual, fudge number, reduced a couple to bump carry over UP. Either we have a crazy man with a chart buying, or the big coop has some REALLY big export deals booked. Not disclosed to the commoner.
Financials. In case you forgot, never sell a dull Monday dow. How many times do you have to hear Jamie Dimon wants the fed to raise interest rates before you realize its a dull Monday. Hello, he is a banker. Of course he wants higher interest rates. Bonds couldn't break, so 166.25 close. We are on shaky ground. Dow better hold.
9/9
Corn had a little gas left in the tank late to close up 2 1/2 to 3.41. Wheat spec shorts are more comfortable, off 2 1/2 to 4.03 1/2. Beans longs added just a few to 9.80 1/4, plus 3 1/2, but meal again skipped the rally and that is not a good sign. Rice slipped a couple to 9.51 1/2 with no real feature other than a significant amount of September open interest still out there. Don't kid yourself, there are rice elevators that have the fat CBOT storage check built into their business model. With all the receipts cancelled lately, they NEED to get back on the exchange teat. I expect most of the shorts left will find a way to get new physical registered. Grain report Monday so this short week has run pretty much as expected to even up in front. Bottom line on the report in my eyes. We have enough corn left and we have grown quite the crop. Beans probably will have enough carry over, (220 or more) and what should be a larger crop and quite possibly 50.3, which creates a paper surplus for now. We can sell more wheat, drop carry over, and still have wheat piled on the ground, and the NASS report gives rice a shot at higher carry in, which would offset at least half of the known weather damage in the delta. BTW, off to a lot slower start to rice exports than I would like to see as well, and I would hate to put my faith in Iran ,Iraq, Columbia, Venezuela, and a few other non typical or non friendly buyers to clear the American excess. For all the bull about the world not being able to feed it self in a few years, if the good old US doesn't find a few better ways to internally use our production, we are going to continue to be the worlds call option. Trouble with call options is when the price goes down the call is worthless. Think long and hard about that one with a few of the trade deals we have out there now, as well as the one trying to pass now. TPP TPPA. I can see 6 rice producing states that would get hammered. That's the polite description.. Every one of these countries involved has significant barriers to the US. If you believe a treaty will change that, go look at rice exports to Columbia, vs. the treaties In place. That's an easy one, but you could fill a web site with all the failed good faith agreements we now have. From what I understand, the Ford plant Trump is complaining about in Mexico is to serve some of our current trading partners that don't want to buy the product from America. Before you complain, I know its not that easy, but you cant deny it exists.
Forgot the financials. Bonds did the dance, and closed off about all they could be pushed. 166.27, off 1.19. DO you really believe the fed, ECB, and BOJ just found Jesus? No guaranteed buyers for stocks. Guaranteed buyers for paper. Dow off 414 to 17,967 and 24 off the low. That was the sickness we talked about a day earlier. It will be interesting to see which chess piece is moved next. Counting China, we have 4 players on a two player board. I think we all thought it was chess, but maybe the game has changed to Chinese checkers. The elites all measure against equities, unless they can get the commoners to own enough to rob them. The perception is that there isn't enough private sucker equity ownership, but maybe we have to set the bar lower. Maybe the smart money already has. This coming week will tell.
Corn had a little gas left in the tank late to close up 2 1/2 to 3.41. Wheat spec shorts are more comfortable, off 2 1/2 to 4.03 1/2. Beans longs added just a few to 9.80 1/4, plus 3 1/2, but meal again skipped the rally and that is not a good sign. Rice slipped a couple to 9.51 1/2 with no real feature other than a significant amount of September open interest still out there. Don't kid yourself, there are rice elevators that have the fat CBOT storage check built into their business model. With all the receipts cancelled lately, they NEED to get back on the exchange teat. I expect most of the shorts left will find a way to get new physical registered. Grain report Monday so this short week has run pretty much as expected to even up in front. Bottom line on the report in my eyes. We have enough corn left and we have grown quite the crop. Beans probably will have enough carry over, (220 or more) and what should be a larger crop and quite possibly 50.3, which creates a paper surplus for now. We can sell more wheat, drop carry over, and still have wheat piled on the ground, and the NASS report gives rice a shot at higher carry in, which would offset at least half of the known weather damage in the delta. BTW, off to a lot slower start to rice exports than I would like to see as well, and I would hate to put my faith in Iran ,Iraq, Columbia, Venezuela, and a few other non typical or non friendly buyers to clear the American excess. For all the bull about the world not being able to feed it self in a few years, if the good old US doesn't find a few better ways to internally use our production, we are going to continue to be the worlds call option. Trouble with call options is when the price goes down the call is worthless. Think long and hard about that one with a few of the trade deals we have out there now, as well as the one trying to pass now. TPP TPPA. I can see 6 rice producing states that would get hammered. That's the polite description.. Every one of these countries involved has significant barriers to the US. If you believe a treaty will change that, go look at rice exports to Columbia, vs. the treaties In place. That's an easy one, but you could fill a web site with all the failed good faith agreements we now have. From what I understand, the Ford plant Trump is complaining about in Mexico is to serve some of our current trading partners that don't want to buy the product from America. Before you complain, I know its not that easy, but you cant deny it exists.
Forgot the financials. Bonds did the dance, and closed off about all they could be pushed. 166.27, off 1.19. DO you really believe the fed, ECB, and BOJ just found Jesus? No guaranteed buyers for stocks. Guaranteed buyers for paper. Dow off 414 to 17,967 and 24 off the low. That was the sickness we talked about a day earlier. It will be interesting to see which chess piece is moved next. Counting China, we have 4 players on a two player board. I think we all thought it was chess, but maybe the game has changed to Chinese checkers. The elites all measure against equities, unless they can get the commoners to own enough to rob them. The perception is that there isn't enough private sucker equity ownership, but maybe we have to set the bar lower. Maybe the smart money already has. This coming week will tell.
9/8
Corn still doing the heavy lifting up 5 1/4 on short covering, but starting to get tired. Wheat in tow but up couple cents less. 3.38 1/2, and 4.06. Even with the dreaded variable rate storage, I don't know how much more this spread will take. My guess is the easy money is gone. Might be time to reevaluate corn/wheat. Beans and meal stalled, 9.76 3/4, up 1 1/4. With higher spot plus a basis premium, pipeline that is quite low may have moved enough for now. There are both high and low guesses for Mondays report on carry over. Observationally, the number should be low. Doesn't mean the government will comply. Dow still dead, 18,381, off 52 in the December. Re-read yesterdays post about the bonds. Bonds take out the bottom of the range to 169.29, which is nothing, but now with December being the lead, 168.14 would be a clear takeout on the charts. This is paint by numbers, folks. Don't over think it. Is a computer really smarter than you? Weaker early this morning. I repeat yesterdays post. Look again. Don't be the sucker. One caveat, if the finance banker European boys have truly found a way to siphon off most of the ECB gravy before it hits the market , things will surely hit the fan, and soon. That doesn't mean sell the bonds, but you might want to redirect you attention to boring old dow. Anyone looked at vol lately?
Corn still doing the heavy lifting up 5 1/4 on short covering, but starting to get tired. Wheat in tow but up couple cents less. 3.38 1/2, and 4.06. Even with the dreaded variable rate storage, I don't know how much more this spread will take. My guess is the easy money is gone. Might be time to reevaluate corn/wheat. Beans and meal stalled, 9.76 3/4, up 1 1/4. With higher spot plus a basis premium, pipeline that is quite low may have moved enough for now. There are both high and low guesses for Mondays report on carry over. Observationally, the number should be low. Doesn't mean the government will comply. Dow still dead, 18,381, off 52 in the December. Re-read yesterdays post about the bonds. Bonds take out the bottom of the range to 169.29, which is nothing, but now with December being the lead, 168.14 would be a clear takeout on the charts. This is paint by numbers, folks. Don't over think it. Is a computer really smarter than you? Weaker early this morning. I repeat yesterdays post. Look again. Don't be the sucker. One caveat, if the finance banker European boys have truly found a way to siphon off most of the ECB gravy before it hits the market , things will surely hit the fan, and soon. That doesn't mean sell the bonds, but you might want to redirect you attention to boring old dow. Anyone looked at vol lately?
9/7
Corn and wheat continue the recovery, both up near a nickel, 3.33 1/4 and 4.02 3/4. Beans run continues as well, up 15 3/4 to 9.75 1/2 and the front is getting tighter still. Rice up 4, 9.56 and chewing thru iceberg sellers along the way. Dead dow, 18.514 while bonds do nothing as well, 172.06. Bond tips of the day . Volume has rolled to December, which is at 170.23. Best time to pierce the bottom of a range bound market, and sucker new shorts is at the roll. Fair warning. Don't be the sucker. If held to the next roll, could you pick up that point plus discount each and every time? Could the same scenario exist in the dow as well? We will be switching to December for the financials, so keep this in mind.
Corn and wheat continue the recovery, both up near a nickel, 3.33 1/4 and 4.02 3/4. Beans run continues as well, up 15 3/4 to 9.75 1/2 and the front is getting tighter still. Rice up 4, 9.56 and chewing thru iceberg sellers along the way. Dead dow, 18.514 while bonds do nothing as well, 172.06. Bond tips of the day . Volume has rolled to December, which is at 170.23. Best time to pierce the bottom of a range bound market, and sucker new shorts is at the roll. Fair warning. Don't be the sucker. If held to the next roll, could you pick up that point plus discount each and every time? Could the same scenario exist in the dow as well? We will be switching to December for the financials, so keep this in mind.
9/6
Short week this week and harvest knocking on the door. Beans having SDS issues pretty much everywhere and that is softening my thoughts on a stupid high bean crop. Thing you have to remember, barring government issues, we will have huge exports, and I expect that in all the crops. The companies that handle grain should all do well this year. Rice varieties yields are off this year, in some cases significantly. We have taken what was going to be an overwhelming crop to manage, down to a manageable surplus with the weather losses throughout the delta that could come out over 100K acres. Now shaving yield moves us to some interesting regional price displacement potentials. What was shaping up to be a potentially better year for the mills may have shifted. Corn unchanged, 3.28 1/2, wheat off 3/4 to 3.98 1/2. Oats do continue softening. Good for general mills, too bad cereal consumption isn't growing with population. Beans added another 7 1/4 to 9.59 3/4, with meal participating today. Good to see. If weather doesn't participate at harvest, we still have room for some decent premiums to be paid for prompt ship beans. Free basis thought of the day. Don't forget to ask. Rice gave back 17 to 9.52, on step down selling. This Monday was Tuesday, up 43 after a day of choppy dull trade. Never sell a dull Monday. Bonds up over a point to 172.04. I'm going to give you some interesting bond observations tonight. So simple for a buy and hold guy, my kids would say, wait, what.
Short week this week and harvest knocking on the door. Beans having SDS issues pretty much everywhere and that is softening my thoughts on a stupid high bean crop. Thing you have to remember, barring government issues, we will have huge exports, and I expect that in all the crops. The companies that handle grain should all do well this year. Rice varieties yields are off this year, in some cases significantly. We have taken what was going to be an overwhelming crop to manage, down to a manageable surplus with the weather losses throughout the delta that could come out over 100K acres. Now shaving yield moves us to some interesting regional price displacement potentials. What was shaping up to be a potentially better year for the mills may have shifted. Corn unchanged, 3.28 1/2, wheat off 3/4 to 3.98 1/2. Oats do continue softening. Good for general mills, too bad cereal consumption isn't growing with population. Beans added another 7 1/4 to 9.59 3/4, with meal participating today. Good to see. If weather doesn't participate at harvest, we still have room for some decent premiums to be paid for prompt ship beans. Free basis thought of the day. Don't forget to ask. Rice gave back 17 to 9.52, on step down selling. This Monday was Tuesday, up 43 after a day of choppy dull trade. Never sell a dull Monday. Bonds up over a point to 172.04. I'm going to give you some interesting bond observations tonight. So simple for a buy and hold guy, my kids would say, wait, what.
9/2
Rally continues in the grains, but with less vigor. Corn and wheat up more than4 cents each, 3.28 1/2 and 3.99 1/2. Beans up 8 3/4 to9.52 1/2, but meal was a laggard. I never trust an oil led rally. Rice up 27, on lack of selling. There will be a reset on carry over with certainty, the question still remains how much. Dow finally struggles back near Mondays close. For Monday, I never sell a dull Monday, but radar is up. This Monday better have some legs up or else the market should demand more of your attention. Bonds drop a point to 170.31, still in the range.
Rally continues in the grains, but with less vigor. Corn and wheat up more than4 cents each, 3.28 1/2 and 3.99 1/2. Beans up 8 3/4 to9.52 1/2, but meal was a laggard. I never trust an oil led rally. Rice up 27, on lack of selling. There will be a reset on carry over with certainty, the question still remains how much. Dow finally struggles back near Mondays close. For Monday, I never sell a dull Monday, but radar is up. This Monday better have some legs up or else the market should demand more of your attention. Bonds drop a point to 170.31, still in the range.
9/1
Post deliveries bounce in progress. Corn up8 1/4 to 3.23 3/4, while wheat is up 6 1/2 to 3.94 3/4.For now at least the wheat is following corn. When the wheat is finally put to bed, I would expect that to reverse. Beans and rice seem tied together as well, and I can only attribute that to outside forces, and they are flighty. Rice at 9.42, and beans 9 43 3/4. Dow probed the down leg with no results and settled unchanged. Bonds just treading still, 171.30. Farm Progress is in the books. Several new takes on old technology. I love the ingenuity of Americas farmers. I had hoped, and honestly expected, more information would be available about new crops and markets for the crops we produce.
Post deliveries bounce in progress. Corn up8 1/4 to 3.23 3/4, while wheat is up 6 1/2 to 3.94 3/4.For now at least the wheat is following corn. When the wheat is finally put to bed, I would expect that to reverse. Beans and rice seem tied together as well, and I can only attribute that to outside forces, and they are flighty. Rice at 9.42, and beans 9 43 3/4. Dow probed the down leg with no results and settled unchanged. Bonds just treading still, 171.30. Farm Progress is in the books. Several new takes on old technology. I love the ingenuity of Americas farmers. I had hoped, and honestly expected, more information would be available about new crops and markets for the crops we produce.
8/31
Corn basing so far, 3.15 1/2, While wheat got the last of the deliveries drag down to 3.88 1/4. Welcome to variable storage rates. Deliveries are current, so the check is written. Doesn't mean that the commercial regular elevators wont fire up the printing presses again. I would. Beans and rice at 9.73. Both digesting large supply. Rice supply wont be as large as expected, but demand that keeps being teased still hasn't appeared. Bean supply keeps getting larger, and the demand while large is hoped to keep up. Cant forget our competitors to the south will be trying to take our demand away in less than 1/2 a year. If you didn't price this summer, as a farmer this is going to potentially be a tough marketing year. I'm glad I'm not a banker. Speaking of bankers, global money shift is just treading water. Bonds 171.27. Dow off 49 to 18,395. I want the central bank exit plans. Ideas. Possibilities. I only hear crickets.
Corn basing so far, 3.15 1/2, While wheat got the last of the deliveries drag down to 3.88 1/4. Welcome to variable storage rates. Deliveries are current, so the check is written. Doesn't mean that the commercial regular elevators wont fire up the printing presses again. I would. Beans and rice at 9.73. Both digesting large supply. Rice supply wont be as large as expected, but demand that keeps being teased still hasn't appeared. Bean supply keeps getting larger, and the demand while large is hoped to keep up. Cant forget our competitors to the south will be trying to take our demand away in less than 1/2 a year. If you didn't price this summer, as a farmer this is going to potentially be a tough marketing year. I'm glad I'm not a banker. Speaking of bankers, global money shift is just treading water. Bonds 171.27. Dow off 49 to 18,395. I want the central bank exit plans. Ideas. Possibilities. I only hear crickets.
8/30
Well, you can tell by yesterdays first line that I was a day off in thinking. So copy and repeat. Breaking markets have a way of finding bottoms at first intentions and notice days. The machine runs out of bearish things to print, and the grain got cheap enough that someone wrote a check. And spec short has gotten out of hand. Corn and wheat. And China is in town and their check book is out. Easy money on the short side I still believe has been booked. Corn drops a nickel to 3.15 3/4, and wheat almost in lockstep to 3.92 1/4. Beans had a bigger fall to 9.50 3/4, but I haven't seen any registrations of beans or meal. Rice had 100 new receipts out of eastside, 9.52, off 18 1/2. Dow and bonds slip back a bit, 18,444 and 171.25. Nice crowd at farm progress today, and with good weather, next two days should be busy.
Well, you can tell by yesterdays first line that I was a day off in thinking. So copy and repeat. Breaking markets have a way of finding bottoms at first intentions and notice days. The machine runs out of bearish things to print, and the grain got cheap enough that someone wrote a check. And spec short has gotten out of hand. Corn and wheat. And China is in town and their check book is out. Easy money on the short side I still believe has been booked. Corn drops a nickel to 3.15 3/4, and wheat almost in lockstep to 3.92 1/4. Beans had a bigger fall to 9.50 3/4, but I haven't seen any registrations of beans or meal. Rice had 100 new receipts out of eastside, 9.52, off 18 1/2. Dow and bonds slip back a bit, 18,444 and 171.25. Nice crowd at farm progress today, and with good weather, next two days should be busy.
8/29
First notice day is upon us, and bears did what they do best. Should get our daily dose of delivery anguish in the wheat, then what. moving to December for the wheat and corn, rice and beans will be November. Wheat off another 10 1/2 to 3.97, and corn off 4 1/4, 3.20 3/4. Beans drift a little to 9.64 1/4, while rice takes the standard sell into deliveries and put full carry into the market dive, down 22 to 9.70 1/2. There might be room for more grain break, but the easy money has been made. Financials. Dirty central bank money finally made it thru the channels of extortion, so rise we did. Dow up 109 to 18,489 and bonds up almost 2 full points from the bottom of the range, 172.03. The talking heads, and the charts will try to help you forget about last weeks action, but a prudent man would not. That's all I'm saying,
First notice day is upon us, and bears did what they do best. Should get our daily dose of delivery anguish in the wheat, then what. moving to December for the wheat and corn, rice and beans will be November. Wheat off another 10 1/2 to 3.97, and corn off 4 1/4, 3.20 3/4. Beans drift a little to 9.64 1/4, while rice takes the standard sell into deliveries and put full carry into the market dive, down 22 to 9.70 1/2. There might be room for more grain break, but the easy money has been made. Financials. Dirty central bank money finally made it thru the channels of extortion, so rise we did. Dow up 109 to 18,489 and bonds up almost 2 full points from the bottom of the range, 172.03. The talking heads, and the charts will try to help you forget about last weeks action, but a prudent man would not. That's all I'm saying,
8/26
Managed money pulled back harder on the long bets. Beans off another 8 1/4 to 9.67 1/4, and rice gives up a nickel to 9.73. Corn falls 7 1/4 to 3.16 1/4, while the hearding struck a new level in wheat, off 17 3/4 to 3.83 1/2. I'm going to address this wheat story again. Its important, doesn't matter if you trade wheat or not. It matters if you trade. Rewind the last weeks show in your mind. Press, let breath, press, let breath, repeat as necessary. New lows. Press. World is awash in wheat stories. Press. Variable wheat story. Press. Garbage wheat with low protein or high vomitoxin levels . Press. Every sucker that could be convinced to sell. Pillage. Please don't be there for pillage. You don't realize it, but you are the mark at the table. This week. Dirty money still not diverted enough to wet the troughs in the financials. Ponsy scheme starting to have doubters. Dow off 68 to avoid a weekend, 18,380. Bonds leak back to the bottom of the range, 1.13 lower to 170.10
We lost a dear friend, Frank Riesbeck, 77. Cancer. I rented a little space from him, and learned a lot from him. He was a firm man, there was no doubt where you stood with Frank. That scared people. I appreciated it. Very much reminded me of some of the crusty old farmers I grew up around in Iowa, as well as my own grandfather. After my grandfather passed, my dad said he never understood how I got away with, and worked so well with my grandfather. I think a chunk of it was that I will always stand my ground when I'm sure I'm right, damn the odds, and step back when a solid man is willing to stand his ground, because there has to be a reason for a good man to draw a line. When a solid man is willing to draw a line, at the minimum there is a learning event that should not be squandered. Frank has said, you could tell a lot about a man if he was willing to reach into his own pocket to make his word good.. My grandfather could have said the same thing 40 years ago, and I just put that piece of the puzzle together. God Speed Frank.
Managed money pulled back harder on the long bets. Beans off another 8 1/4 to 9.67 1/4, and rice gives up a nickel to 9.73. Corn falls 7 1/4 to 3.16 1/4, while the hearding struck a new level in wheat, off 17 3/4 to 3.83 1/2. I'm going to address this wheat story again. Its important, doesn't matter if you trade wheat or not. It matters if you trade. Rewind the last weeks show in your mind. Press, let breath, press, let breath, repeat as necessary. New lows. Press. World is awash in wheat stories. Press. Variable wheat story. Press. Garbage wheat with low protein or high vomitoxin levels . Press. Every sucker that could be convinced to sell. Pillage. Please don't be there for pillage. You don't realize it, but you are the mark at the table. This week. Dirty money still not diverted enough to wet the troughs in the financials. Ponsy scheme starting to have doubters. Dow off 68 to avoid a weekend, 18,380. Bonds leak back to the bottom of the range, 1.13 lower to 170.10
We lost a dear friend, Frank Riesbeck, 77. Cancer. I rented a little space from him, and learned a lot from him. He was a firm man, there was no doubt where you stood with Frank. That scared people. I appreciated it. Very much reminded me of some of the crusty old farmers I grew up around in Iowa, as well as my own grandfather. After my grandfather passed, my dad said he never understood how I got away with, and worked so well with my grandfather. I think a chunk of it was that I will always stand my ground when I'm sure I'm right, damn the odds, and step back when a solid man is willing to stand his ground, because there has to be a reason for a good man to draw a line. When a solid man is willing to draw a line, at the minimum there is a learning event that should not be squandered. Frank has said, you could tell a lot about a man if he was willing to reach into his own pocket to make his word good.. My grandfather could have said the same thing 40 years ago, and I just put that piece of the puzzle together. God Speed Frank.
8/25
Rice and beans off the edge. Both down nearly 30 cents, 9.78 1/2, and 9.75 1/2. Beans have negative news of a crop growing larger . Rice has sad but price friendly news of La flooding, Mo. flooding, Ark. flooding. When the managed money wants to sell, they sell. Don't kid yourself, farmers are selling too, but the reality is when you trade rice, you need to trade exaggerations. Patience isn't a virtue, its a necessity. Corn looses 4 to 3.23 1/2, while wheat probes the bottom at 4.01 1/4. Look back a few days. Don't overthink wheat. Let the funds heard, then trade. Bonds and dow were a dull leak down again today, and again I'm grateful. Lets just whistle past the graveyard a little more and we will have some more dirty central bank money to spend. Don't spook the covey.
Rice and beans off the edge. Both down nearly 30 cents, 9.78 1/2, and 9.75 1/2. Beans have negative news of a crop growing larger . Rice has sad but price friendly news of La flooding, Mo. flooding, Ark. flooding. When the managed money wants to sell, they sell. Don't kid yourself, farmers are selling too, but the reality is when you trade rice, you need to trade exaggerations. Patience isn't a virtue, its a necessity. Corn looses 4 to 3.23 1/2, while wheat probes the bottom at 4.01 1/4. Look back a few days. Don't overthink wheat. Let the funds heard, then trade. Bonds and dow were a dull leak down again today, and again I'm grateful. Lets just whistle past the graveyard a little more and we will have some more dirty central bank money to spend. Don't spook the covey.
8/24
Corn off a penny, 3.27 1/2, while wheat lost 3 3/4 on the sept to 4.04 Variable storage is a lock by now. Its good to own a deliverable elevator. Maybe not so much if your a long hedger. Maybe that's why wheat has the most managed money shorts all the time. Beans slip 8 1/4 to 10.05 1/4. The buck looks a little shakier. Rice off another 22 1/2 to 10.08. Guess the delta didn't get hurt too bad after all. Just don't tell them. Dull dow. Which I will argue was nice. Same for the bonds. 18,472 and 172.08
Corn off a penny, 3.27 1/2, while wheat lost 3 3/4 on the sept to 4.04 Variable storage is a lock by now. Its good to own a deliverable elevator. Maybe not so much if your a long hedger. Maybe that's why wheat has the most managed money shorts all the time. Beans slip 8 1/4 to 10.05 1/4. The buck looks a little shakier. Rice off another 22 1/2 to 10.08. Guess the delta didn't get hurt too bad after all. Just don't tell them. Dull dow. Which I will argue was nice. Same for the bonds. 18,472 and 172.08
8/23
Wheat is the glut story of the year, off another 7 1/2 to 4.07 3/4. Dragging corn down 4 3/4 to 3.28 1/2. Beans fade a little as well to 10.13 1/2. Rice fades 17 to 10.30 1/2. Birds of a feather. Dow probed up near 100 but failed back to home, 18,528. Figure they might probe lower for a floor to try to develop. If they can find a floor, expect to repeat todays highs pretty quickly. If the floor seems skittish tomorrow, it is.. Very good day to not have an opinion or be stubborn. Bonds at 172.14 give no guidance either. Just an ag thought. What are the wheat lows? How do the computers churn? This isn't always that hard. Don't over think it.
Wheat is the glut story of the year, off another 7 1/2 to 4.07 3/4. Dragging corn down 4 3/4 to 3.28 1/2. Beans fade a little as well to 10.13 1/2. Rice fades 17 to 10.30 1/2. Birds of a feather. Dow probed up near 100 but failed back to home, 18,528. Figure they might probe lower for a floor to try to develop. If they can find a floor, expect to repeat todays highs pretty quickly. If the floor seems skittish tomorrow, it is.. Very good day to not have an opinion or be stubborn. Bonds at 172.14 give no guidance either. Just an ag thought. What are the wheat lows? How do the computers churn? This isn't always that hard. Don't over think it.
8/22
Corn backed up a penny to 3.33 1/4, while world wheat stories of surplus pushed buyers to the sidelines, off 11 3/4 to 4.15 1/4. Ongoing demand is driving beans, up 11 1/4 to 10.15 1/4. Not sure what gives us the next leg up from here though. Rice popped 22 to 10.47 1/2, and November was stronger still. Delta has pains from La. to Mo. Rice can survive a short skinny dip, not so much for a lot of bean and corn acres. Dow treading water, 18,519, while the bonds had their expected bounce off the bottom of the trough, up 1.09 to 172.12. Rush said today that the European banksters have found a new way to skim off the ECB printing press. For our markets sake, lets hope that is just a detour. and not a new routing number. I'd hate to think the muddy water can only be expected to come from the BOJ and our Fed. Socialist greed does normally show up as the first crack in the armor. This is a great idea I have, and, expect you to do. The socialist always gives you the first part of the sentence, hoping to not say the second half out loud.
Corn backed up a penny to 3.33 1/4, while world wheat stories of surplus pushed buyers to the sidelines, off 11 3/4 to 4.15 1/4. Ongoing demand is driving beans, up 11 1/4 to 10.15 1/4. Not sure what gives us the next leg up from here though. Rice popped 22 to 10.47 1/2, and November was stronger still. Delta has pains from La. to Mo. Rice can survive a short skinny dip, not so much for a lot of bean and corn acres. Dow treading water, 18,519, while the bonds had their expected bounce off the bottom of the trough, up 1.09 to 172.12. Rush said today that the European banksters have found a new way to skim off the ECB printing press. For our markets sake, lets hope that is just a detour. and not a new routing number. I'd hate to think the muddy water can only be expected to come from the BOJ and our Fed. Socialist greed does normally show up as the first crack in the armor. This is a great idea I have, and, expect you to do. The socialist always gives you the first part of the sentence, hoping to not say the second half out loud.
8/19
On the road Thursday, and not enough to talk about anyway. Sept corn added about 8 for the week, 3.34 1/4, while wheat added a nickel, 4.27. Beans net dropped a nickel from Mondays power close, but still 10.04 1/2. Rice was a back and forth all week as well, digesting Mondays strength, 10.25 1/2. Financials are waiting for more central bank make believe fairy dust to float on, so nothing of note. 18,540, and bonds settle 171.03. Delta weather will start the week, not sure what will end it. Hit me on the contact page, and we can meet at farm progress next week. Should be a good show. I am getting a laundry list of things to look at, and its starting to get long.
On the road Thursday, and not enough to talk about anyway. Sept corn added about 8 for the week, 3.34 1/4, while wheat added a nickel, 4.27. Beans net dropped a nickel from Mondays power close, but still 10.04 1/2. Rice was a back and forth all week as well, digesting Mondays strength, 10.25 1/2. Financials are waiting for more central bank make believe fairy dust to float on, so nothing of note. 18,540, and bonds settle 171.03. Delta weather will start the week, not sure what will end it. Hit me on the contact page, and we can meet at farm progress next week. Should be a good show. I am getting a laundry list of things to look at, and its starting to get long.
8/17
Stay with the bottom up approach. Trap didn't work in bonds, up 17 to 171.19. So far. Dow bleeds up 17 to 18,541. Rice spread backed off, and flat price leaked 21 to 10.22 1/2. Lots of yield and acreage loss yet to quantify, so Id take a breath before you jump. Beans couldn't break, so rally to 10.16, plus 8 3/4. Wheat and corn both up a couple to a few, 4.26 and 3.30 1/4. Private and public tours are and will be questioning the USDA
Stay with the bottom up approach. Trap didn't work in bonds, up 17 to 171.19. So far. Dow bleeds up 17 to 18,541. Rice spread backed off, and flat price leaked 21 to 10.22 1/2. Lots of yield and acreage loss yet to quantify, so Id take a breath before you jump. Beans couldn't break, so rally to 10.16, plus 8 3/4. Wheat and corn both up a couple to a few, 4.26 and 3.30 1/4. Private and public tours are and will be questioning the USDA
8/16
Lets start bottom up tonight. Bonds had their little wash out sucker trap, off 21 to 171.03 Seems like a bear trap to me. Dow gives back Monday , 18,524. Rice weather definitely hurting this harvest. Bushel loss most certainly in the millions, just what the first number is has to be determined. Plus 19, 10.43 1/2. Everything else just stalled out. Corn up a penny to 3.27 1/2, Wheat a penny and a half to 4.23 1/2, and beans off 2 to 10.07 1/4
Lets start bottom up tonight. Bonds had their little wash out sucker trap, off 21 to 171.03 Seems like a bear trap to me. Dow gives back Monday , 18,524. Rice weather definitely hurting this harvest. Bushel loss most certainly in the millions, just what the first number is has to be determined. Plus 19, 10.43 1/2. Everything else just stalled out. Corn up a penny to 3.27 1/2, Wheat a penny and a half to 4.23 1/2, and beans off 2 to 10.07 1/4
8/15
A bit of a magic Monday for the grains. Corn up 4 1/4 to 3.26 1/2, as mortal men come to the decision that a 175 crop is probably the stuff of fairy tales. Wheat paused at 4.22, and beans powered up 27 1/2 on reviews of demand. Barge traffic might get interesting with all the rain in La. That would be my warning about getting too far over the skis in front of harvest. Rice continuing its rebound, up a solid 59 to 10.24 1/2. Those rains causing barge issues in La are causing serious harvest issues, and rutting issues, and lodging issues. You get the point. Highest production numbers across the board are probably in. Dow melts up 59 to 18,582 Don't sell a dull dow. Have to wonder how long the markets can overlook domestic issues like slow demand and riots. Bonds back off to 171.24. Probably get another shot on the yo-yo, but don't be too greedy. Bottom could be washed out for a few to catch some new suckers.
A bit of a magic Monday for the grains. Corn up 4 1/4 to 3.26 1/2, as mortal men come to the decision that a 175 crop is probably the stuff of fairy tales. Wheat paused at 4.22, and beans powered up 27 1/2 on reviews of demand. Barge traffic might get interesting with all the rain in La. That would be my warning about getting too far over the skis in front of harvest. Rice continuing its rebound, up a solid 59 to 10.24 1/2. Those rains causing barge issues in La are causing serious harvest issues, and rutting issues, and lodging issues. You get the point. Highest production numbers across the board are probably in. Dow melts up 59 to 18,582 Don't sell a dull dow. Have to wonder how long the markets can overlook domestic issues like slow demand and riots. Bonds back off to 171.24. Probably get another shot on the yo-yo, but don't be too greedy. Bottom could be washed out for a few to catch some new suckers.
8/12
Report is in the rear view mirror now. Bean crop got bigger, and so did demand. Demand will stay bigger. Will the projected crop? Beans rally off a bearish report to close 9.81 3/4, off 2 1/4. Corn with a massive 175.1. Big crops get bigger, but one has to wonder how far into a field these surveys went. I have several farmers of the older persuasion, and they say it isn't there. 3.22 1/4, off 1 1/4. Wheat put its lows in on the report as well, but closed 6 1/4 higher, 4. 22 1/2 Some spread rolling in there as well. Rice still has bearish ending stocks, but at least they recognized what most in the cash know about ending stocks. That's domestic, we will have to wait for a declared crisis before the global situation gets adjusted. Industrial grade, non human consumption rice is still rice, right. Plus 34, 9.65 1/2. Dow did a minor weekend leak to 18.523, off 42. Bonds closed up 1.06, nearly a point off the highs, to 172.31. That's two pretty low risk points from yesterday. Just saying.
Report is in the rear view mirror now. Bean crop got bigger, and so did demand. Demand will stay bigger. Will the projected crop? Beans rally off a bearish report to close 9.81 3/4, off 2 1/4. Corn with a massive 175.1. Big crops get bigger, but one has to wonder how far into a field these surveys went. I have several farmers of the older persuasion, and they say it isn't there. 3.22 1/4, off 1 1/4. Wheat put its lows in on the report as well, but closed 6 1/4 higher, 4. 22 1/2 Some spread rolling in there as well. Rice still has bearish ending stocks, but at least they recognized what most in the cash know about ending stocks. That's domestic, we will have to wait for a declared crisis before the global situation gets adjusted. Industrial grade, non human consumption rice is still rice, right. Plus 34, 9.65 1/2. Dow did a minor weekend leak to 18.523, off 42. Bonds closed up 1.06, nearly a point off the highs, to 172.31. That's two pretty low risk points from yesterday. Just saying.
8/11
We are almost home now. Report cant come soon enough. Crop keeps getting bigger, and so does bean demand. Corn off 1 /2 to 3.21. Wheat gave up yesterdays gains to fall back to 4.16 1/4. Beans up 1 3/4 to 9.84. Rice bear plowed thru the china closet again, down 20 1/2 to 9.31 1/2. I don't know who he is, but he's good. Very good. On the edge of too good. Looks like some fresh money came into the financials, sprinkled around like pixie dust. Its always nice to watch a magic show, just to see how the ending unwinds. Took a long time for Houdini to die, but die he did. Dow up 113 to 18,565 and bonds slip 1.22 to 171.25. Don't forget there is no reason to expect anything more than butter churn from the bonds. 171.15 has been the settle low for a while . Just saying.
We are almost home now. Report cant come soon enough. Crop keeps getting bigger, and so does bean demand. Corn off 1 /2 to 3.21. Wheat gave up yesterdays gains to fall back to 4.16 1/4. Beans up 1 3/4 to 9.84. Rice bear plowed thru the china closet again, down 20 1/2 to 9.31 1/2. I don't know who he is, but he's good. Very good. On the edge of too good. Looks like some fresh money came into the financials, sprinkled around like pixie dust. Its always nice to watch a magic show, just to see how the ending unwinds. Took a long time for Houdini to die, but die he did. Dow up 113 to 18,565 and bonds slip 1.22 to 171.25. Don't forget there is no reason to expect anything more than butter churn from the bonds. 171.15 has been the settle low for a while . Just saying.
8/10
Leveling up for tomorrows report. Corn 3.22 1/2, wheat 4.21 3/4, up 4 3/4. Beans slipping a tad to 9.82 1/4, of 5 3/4. Rice bear came hunting again, off 18 to 9.52. Dow off 14 to 18,452 and waiting on a new load of ECB cash, or is it the BOJ with the candy this week. Bond butter churn higher as the cream rises to the top, up 24 , 173.15.Kind of in the middle on that one, so flip a coin for tomorrow.
Leveling up for tomorrows report. Corn 3.22 1/2, wheat 4.21 3/4, up 4 3/4. Beans slipping a tad to 9.82 1/4, of 5 3/4. Rice bear came hunting again, off 18 to 9.52. Dow off 14 to 18,452 and waiting on a new load of ECB cash, or is it the BOJ with the candy this week. Bond butter churn higher as the cream rises to the top, up 24 , 173.15.Kind of in the middle on that one, so flip a coin for tomorrow.
8/9
Another dead day, waiting on 15 minutes of flurry on Friday. Wheat unchanged, 4.17, and corn leaked 3 to 3.22 1/4. Old crop corn still leaking into the system. Beans up 3 to 9.88, and meal spreads firm a little. Rice 9.70, up 4 and spreads firming on large front end spec short. This should be a much harder roll for our resident bully seller, as there are very few receipt bankers there to let him out. Grab some popcorn, sit back, and watch the show. Dull Dow, 18.466, while the bonds decided the bottom of the butter churn range was good, AGAIN, so we rally. 172.23, up 1.02.
Another dead day, waiting on 15 minutes of flurry on Friday. Wheat unchanged, 4.17, and corn leaked 3 to 3.22 1/4. Old crop corn still leaking into the system. Beans up 3 to 9.88, and meal spreads firm a little. Rice 9.70, up 4 and spreads firming on large front end spec short. This should be a much harder roll for our resident bully seller, as there are very few receipt bankers there to let him out. Grab some popcorn, sit back, and watch the show. Dull Dow, 18.466, while the bonds decided the bottom of the butter churn range was good, AGAIN, so we rally. 172.23, up 1.02.
8/8
Catch your breath day for corn and wheat, each up a penny , 3.25 1/4, and 4.17. Beans were lead by the front, and nov followed up 10 1/2, 9.85. Rice powered higher on short covering and solid sales and shipments. More receipts canceled as well. + 35 1/2, 9.66. Dow stalled, up only 6 to 18,460, while bonds fought off early weakness to close 3 higher, 171.21.
Catch your breath day for corn and wheat, each up a penny , 3.25 1/4, and 4.17. Beans were lead by the front, and nov followed up 10 1/2, 9.85. Rice powered higher on short covering and solid sales and shipments. More receipts canceled as well. + 35 1/2, 9.66. Dow stalled, up only 6 to 18,460, while bonds fought off early weakness to close 3 higher, 171.21.
8/5
Lets look at the last few days advise again. We are laying down a base. Bears tried hard to keep corn down and couldn't, closing up 3 1/2 at 3.24 1/4. Review the comment about weak and overextended wheat shorts. Up 12 3/4 to 4.16. Beans. More business. More buying. Old crop potentially getting tighter than anyone expected. Prepare and profit. Up 17 3/4, 9.74 1/2. This is important as you approach this years harvest and the methods you use to price it. Rice off 2 to 9.30 1/2. Every time I had more than 12 % of the open interest in my account, I lost money. Pay attention to the spec short open interest. In the words of THE Donald, HUGE. And very few receipts to let them out of the trap when they try to roll. On to the financials. Again, don't fight the fed, of the BOJ, or the ECB. Dow up 181 to 18,454 as the paint dries. Bonds off 1.19 to 171.18 and nearing the bottom of the butter churn range.
Lets look at the last few days advise again. We are laying down a base. Bears tried hard to keep corn down and couldn't, closing up 3 1/2 at 3.24 1/4. Review the comment about weak and overextended wheat shorts. Up 12 3/4 to 4.16. Beans. More business. More buying. Old crop potentially getting tighter than anyone expected. Prepare and profit. Up 17 3/4, 9.74 1/2. This is important as you approach this years harvest and the methods you use to price it. Rice off 2 to 9.30 1/2. Every time I had more than 12 % of the open interest in my account, I lost money. Pay attention to the spec short open interest. In the words of THE Donald, HUGE. And very few receipts to let them out of the trap when they try to roll. On to the financials. Again, don't fight the fed, of the BOJ, or the ECB. Dow up 181 to 18,454 as the paint dries. Bonds off 1.19 to 171.18 and nearing the bottom of the butter churn range.
8/4
Corn pushed out the bottom end, taking stops with it. Minus 4 1/4 to 3.20 3/4. I believe the computers don't put in lows, natural sellers are herded to their breaking point. The same guy who wouldn't sell $4 corn a short while ago is blowing out the bottom. Stop doing that, and the computers cant beat you. Wheat played the churn game down 7 , 4.03 1/4. Watch the bond churn game. Don't get fooled, don't get caught. Beans bears have this problem called demand. And another one called old crop supply. Proper planning with an early harvest is your best bet. Rice bear is back, doing what I said he would yesterday, and carrying all the water. 450 increase in open interest. No position limits? He did everything a textbook bear should do. 22 lower to 9.32 1/2. That should translate to big stops. Last line of support is broken. But wait, there's more. Today the sept/ nov spread found its legs a little. The giant stops never materialized. My guess is we found some more commercial buying. Good exports to this hemisphere as expected, and an unknown export buyer. This isn't beans, its rice. We really do know the buyer, and where the origin is. Bonds up a point, 173.05. Remember the churn. Dow is becoming a fresh Picasso. Takes a bit of time for the paint to dry and terribly boring to watch. In the end it will be a modern masterpiece, but the artist will be dead before he gets paid. Too bad, ECB. That's what happens when you let a crazy man behind the curtain pull the levers and stroke the brush. 18,273
Corn pushed out the bottom end, taking stops with it. Minus 4 1/4 to 3.20 3/4. I believe the computers don't put in lows, natural sellers are herded to their breaking point. The same guy who wouldn't sell $4 corn a short while ago is blowing out the bottom. Stop doing that, and the computers cant beat you. Wheat played the churn game down 7 , 4.03 1/4. Watch the bond churn game. Don't get fooled, don't get caught. Beans bears have this problem called demand. And another one called old crop supply. Proper planning with an early harvest is your best bet. Rice bear is back, doing what I said he would yesterday, and carrying all the water. 450 increase in open interest. No position limits? He did everything a textbook bear should do. 22 lower to 9.32 1/2. That should translate to big stops. Last line of support is broken. But wait, there's more. Today the sept/ nov spread found its legs a little. The giant stops never materialized. My guess is we found some more commercial buying. Good exports to this hemisphere as expected, and an unknown export buyer. This isn't beans, its rice. We really do know the buyer, and where the origin is. Bonds up a point, 173.05. Remember the churn. Dow is becoming a fresh Picasso. Takes a bit of time for the paint to dry and terribly boring to watch. In the end it will be a modern masterpiece, but the artist will be dead before he gets paid. Too bad, ECB. That's what happens when you let a crazy man behind the curtain pull the levers and stroke the brush. 18,273
8/3
Laying down a base here to me. Corn + 3/4 to 3.25, with beans adding 2 1/2, 9.55 1/2. Wheat shorts showed how fragile they are, up 9 to 4.10 1/4. God forbid the market gets any friendly news. Rice closes off 2 with a late short seller. Rising open interest, stalling break, big guns should come out soon to make an aggressive push down, or his dance card is punched. Receipts aren't there to help him this time. He will have to carry all the water. Seems like a good time to announce a decent sized export deal. Dirty central bank money holding sway in the financials. Don't fight the fed. Or the BOJ. Or the ECB. Dow up 21 to 18,269 while bonds list, 172.05
Laying down a base here to me. Corn + 3/4 to 3.25, with beans adding 2 1/2, 9.55 1/2. Wheat shorts showed how fragile they are, up 9 to 4.10 1/4. God forbid the market gets any friendly news. Rice closes off 2 with a late short seller. Rising open interest, stalling break, big guns should come out soon to make an aggressive push down, or his dance card is punched. Receipts aren't there to help him this time. He will have to carry all the water. Seems like a good time to announce a decent sized export deal. Dirty central bank money holding sway in the financials. Don't fight the fed. Or the BOJ. Or the ECB. Dow up 21 to 18,269 while bonds list, 172.05
8/2
Break ran out of steam and a late rally brought us back from the brink. Sept corn lost 1 1/2 to 3.24 1/4 as the spread weakened for now. Wheat lost 4 3/4 to 4.01 1/4, and its getting harder for the shorts to stay. And there is massive spec shorts. Beans off 8 1/2 but still above 50, 9.53 for a close. Rice off 12 to 9.56 1/2 on a bounce from the lows as well. I know the short computers have control for now, and weather and open interest have been on their side, but it sure feels like time is ticking away. Local conditions warranted a break, but the globe is knocking, louder and louder each day. All this cheap global, printing press, helicopter money doesn't have to be spent on government debt. I know it does in the feds world, but the rest of the world has to eat. At some point the liberals will realize that this financial engineering is having a negative effect on any country that cant run their own printing press. Like every third world country we are supposed to be saving. Dow off 78 to 18,248 and the bonds rallied a point to still close down 108, 172.11
Break ran out of steam and a late rally brought us back from the brink. Sept corn lost 1 1/2 to 3.24 1/4 as the spread weakened for now. Wheat lost 4 3/4 to 4.01 1/4, and its getting harder for the shorts to stay. And there is massive spec shorts. Beans off 8 1/2 but still above 50, 9.53 for a close. Rice off 12 to 9.56 1/2 on a bounce from the lows as well. I know the short computers have control for now, and weather and open interest have been on their side, but it sure feels like time is ticking away. Local conditions warranted a break, but the globe is knocking, louder and louder each day. All this cheap global, printing press, helicopter money doesn't have to be spent on government debt. I know it does in the feds world, but the rest of the world has to eat. At some point the liberals will realize that this financial engineering is having a negative effect on any country that cant run their own printing press. Like every third world country we are supposed to be saving. Dow off 78 to 18,248 and the bonds rallied a point to still close down 108, 172.11
8/01
This week started with an awful thud. Good weather brings liquidation across the board. Corn looses 8 3/4 to 3.25 3/4, while wheat held better, only off 1 3/4 to 4.06. Beans took a massive beat down today, and never looked up. Off 41 1/2 to 9.61 1/2 Rice continues its slide as well, off 25 1/2 to 9.68 1/2. Dow drifting aimlessly to 18,326, while bonds slip almost a point to 173.19. Everyone is banking bearish numbers from the government this report, but we seem to be getting ahead of ourselves and the world seems hungry, while central bankers drop free money from the sky. Thinking stagflation will become a topic sooner than anyone wants. How can that happen with zero rates? Denial?
This week started with an awful thud. Good weather brings liquidation across the board. Corn looses 8 3/4 to 3.25 3/4, while wheat held better, only off 1 3/4 to 4.06. Beans took a massive beat down today, and never looked up. Off 41 1/2 to 9.61 1/2 Rice continues its slide as well, off 25 1/2 to 9.68 1/2. Dow drifting aimlessly to 18,326, while bonds slip almost a point to 173.19. Everyone is banking bearish numbers from the government this report, but we seem to be getting ahead of ourselves and the world seems hungry, while central bankers drop free money from the sky. Thinking stagflation will become a topic sooner than anyone wants. How can that happen with zero rates? Denial?
7/29
Corn bouncing along down near the lows, with an uptick of 3 1/4 to 3.34 1/2. Wheat slips 2 1/2 to 4.07 3/4. Beans starting to respond to good exports and lack of fear selling, up 25 to 10.03. Rice singing the same tune, up 17 to 9.94. Dow slips 14 to 18,362, while bonds popped little better than a point to 174.14. Waiting for something in the globe to change for the next load of financial muddy water. Hello ECB. The wall street guys await you. You need to bring more candy than the Bank of Japan.
Corn bouncing along down near the lows, with an uptick of 3 1/4 to 3.34 1/2. Wheat slips 2 1/2 to 4.07 3/4. Beans starting to respond to good exports and lack of fear selling, up 25 to 10.03. Rice singing the same tune, up 17 to 9.94. Dow slips 14 to 18,362, while bonds popped little better than a point to 174.14. Waiting for something in the globe to change for the next load of financial muddy water. Hello ECB. The wall street guys await you. You need to bring more candy than the Bank of Japan.
7/28
Corn and wheat both off 4 1/2, to 3.31 1/4 and 4.10 1/4 respectively. Beans give up 8 to 9.78. Rice loses 5 1/2 more on the big bear push. I wish I had his pockets, We are having some pretty ideal growing weather right now, and I suspect you could shut off the spigot entirely and still make a crop. I know there is still some risk to the beans, but I think the risk now is an early freeze, and no one has that in the horizon that I know of. Bonds up 4 to 173.11, and dow slips again, 18,376. Don't forget tomorrow is first notice day, as well as end of month, so we might see some funny business.
Corn and wheat both off 4 1/2, to 3.31 1/4 and 4.10 1/4 respectively. Beans give up 8 to 9.78. Rice loses 5 1/2 more on the big bear push. I wish I had his pockets, We are having some pretty ideal growing weather right now, and I suspect you could shut off the spigot entirely and still make a crop. I know there is still some risk to the beans, but I think the risk now is an early freeze, and no one has that in the horizon that I know of. Bonds up 4 to 173.11, and dow slips again, 18,376. Don't forget tomorrow is first notice day, as well as end of month, so we might see some funny business.
7/27
Wheat dead at 4.14 3/4, while corn rallies 3 1/4 to 3.35 3/4, and beans up 12 1/4 to 9.86. Little more weather risk creeping in. Rice had it resident bear at work again, pushing the market down 20 more to 9.82 1/2. Sure does seem like some position limits are being stretched. Dow off 8 and bonds up 1.11 on a fed holding pattern. Nothing out there to get too excited about for Thursday trade. I expect the same might not be true for Friday. Might be good to even out a day early this week.
Wheat dead at 4.14 3/4, while corn rallies 3 1/4 to 3.35 3/4, and beans up 12 1/4 to 9.86. Little more weather risk creeping in. Rice had it resident bear at work again, pushing the market down 20 more to 9.82 1/2. Sure does seem like some position limits are being stretched. Dow off 8 and bonds up 1.11 on a fed holding pattern. Nothing out there to get too excited about for Thursday trade. I expect the same might not be true for Friday. Might be good to even out a day early this week.
7/26
Wheat gave back its recent rally to close 4.15, 14 cents lower. Corn traded both sides of unchanged ending off 2 1/4, 3.32 1/2. Beans had some of an expected bounce up 7 1/2, off the highs but higher all the same to 9.73 3/4. Rice gave it up and probably has a new short playing his old tried and true plays. off 33 1/2 to 10.02 1/2. It is worth noting that rice receipts are being cancelled on a regular basis, and finding new rice on sept 1 to deliver has been a problem before. Either the USDA is off on carry over, or the coops could have managed their physical a lot better. And there will be a lot more of that to do this year. Bonds pop 10 to 171.28, while the dow does a little more back filling to 18.398.
Wheat gave back its recent rally to close 4.15, 14 cents lower. Corn traded both sides of unchanged ending off 2 1/4, 3.32 1/2. Beans had some of an expected bounce up 7 1/2, off the highs but higher all the same to 9.73 3/4. Rice gave it up and probably has a new short playing his old tried and true plays. off 33 1/2 to 10.02 1/2. It is worth noting that rice receipts are being cancelled on a regular basis, and finding new rice on sept 1 to deliver has been a problem before. Either the USDA is off on carry over, or the coops could have managed their physical a lot better. And there will be a lot more of that to do this year. Bonds pop 10 to 171.28, while the dow does a little more back filling to 18.398.
7/25
Weekend gave us as good of weather as you could ask for, and beans probed the low end of the move, down 22 to 9.66 1/4. Feels like the easy money has been made for the short. Might get harder holding that position going forward.. Corn off 1/4 to 3.34 3/4, and wheat off its highs, but still 3 3/4 higher to 4.29. Rice off 4 1/2 to 10.36. Getting closer to harvest and new business. Dow off 58, 18.420 and no changes in the global printing press. Bonds another nothing day, off 2 to 171.18. Don't expect the boredom to last much longer.
Weekend gave us as good of weather as you could ask for, and beans probed the low end of the move, down 22 to 9.66 1/4. Feels like the easy money has been made for the short. Might get harder holding that position going forward.. Corn off 1/4 to 3.34 3/4, and wheat off its highs, but still 3 3/4 higher to 4.29. Rice off 4 1/2 to 10.36. Getting closer to harvest and new business. Dow off 58, 18.420 and no changes in the global printing press. Bonds another nothing day, off 2 to 171.18. Don't expect the boredom to last much longer.
7/22
Still in the weather market. Corn has got the rain it needs for the most part, and we are establishing the bottom of the range with a 167-169 crop. Up 3/4 to 3.35. Wheat just doesn't have anything more bearish to throw at it, quality issues globally cropping up, and spec shorts are getting full. Sept wheat up 7 1/2 to 4.25 1/4. Beans getting a massive drink of water, and we still have to punish the spec longs a little more. It will still take August moisture puts beans in the bin. Minus 24 1/4, 9.88 1/2. Seller might be getting over his skis there. Dow floats up 42 to 18,478, and bonds up 5 to 171.20
Still in the weather market. Corn has got the rain it needs for the most part, and we are establishing the bottom of the range with a 167-169 crop. Up 3/4 to 3.35. Wheat just doesn't have anything more bearish to throw at it, quality issues globally cropping up, and spec shorts are getting full. Sept wheat up 7 1/2 to 4.25 1/4. Beans getting a massive drink of water, and we still have to punish the spec longs a little more. It will still take August moisture puts beans in the bin. Minus 24 1/4, 9.88 1/2. Seller might be getting over his skis there. Dow floats up 42 to 18,478, and bonds up 5 to 171.20
7/21
Day spent catching your breath. Sept corn slips another 3 1/4 to 3.34 1/4, wheat gains 3 1/2, and November beans gain back 4 3/4 to 10.12 1/2. Rice gave up 20 to 10.61. Dow off 95 to 18,436, while the bonds churned to scratch, 171.15. No real stories, no reason to go searching for one.
Day spent catching your breath. Sept corn slips another 3 1/4 to 3.34 1/4, wheat gains 3 1/2, and November beans gain back 4 3/4 to 10.12 1/2. Rice gave up 20 to 10.61. Dow off 95 to 18,436, while the bonds churned to scratch, 171.15. No real stories, no reason to go searching for one.
7/20
Beat goes on for the ag sector. Sept corn dropped another 4 1/4 after an attempt at a rally, 3.37 1/2. Wheat off a nickel and ran a few stops,4.13. Nov beans find a home for the evening at 10.09, off 18 3/4. The down side excuses are starting to surface, so keep that in mind moving forward. Doesn't mean the floor is in, but the easy money is.. Rice up a little to 10.81, no story other than bids down south. Dow rising again on the dirty water, Vol dropping on complacency, , bonds fishing the bottom of a churn range, off 24 at 171.15. Glad I don't have to make a living in that pool. Anyone going to the farm progress show in Boone? Trying to decide if I'm going over. Please go to the contact page, and I will try to meet you there.
Beat goes on for the ag sector. Sept corn dropped another 4 1/4 after an attempt at a rally, 3.37 1/2. Wheat off a nickel and ran a few stops,4.13. Nov beans find a home for the evening at 10.09, off 18 3/4. The down side excuses are starting to surface, so keep that in mind moving forward. Doesn't mean the floor is in, but the easy money is.. Rice up a little to 10.81, no story other than bids down south. Dow rising again on the dirty water, Vol dropping on complacency, , bonds fishing the bottom of a churn range, off 24 at 171.15. Glad I don't have to make a living in that pool. Anyone going to the farm progress show in Boone? Trying to decide if I'm going over. Please go to the contact page, and I will try to meet you there.
7/19
Begin they do. Milder temp predictions and a little rain does wonders for a computer hearding program to do its work. September corn off 15 1/4 to 3.41 3/4, while wheat dropped 11 1/2 to 4.18. Beans started poorly, and that was as good as it got. close was off 38 1/2 in the nov, 10.27 3/4. Rice tried to fade, but buyers kept buying, up 2 1/2 to 10.78 1/2. Just enough central banker funds to keep the dow afloat, plus 29, 18,480. Bonds might have found the low end of the churn range, up 21 to 172.07.
Begin they do. Milder temp predictions and a little rain does wonders for a computer hearding program to do its work. September corn off 15 1/4 to 3.41 3/4, while wheat dropped 11 1/2 to 4.18. Beans started poorly, and that was as good as it got. close was off 38 1/2 in the nov, 10.27 3/4. Rice tried to fade, but buyers kept buying, up 2 1/2 to 10.78 1/2. Just enough central banker funds to keep the dow afloat, plus 29, 18,480. Bonds might have found the low end of the churn range, up 21 to 172.07.
7/18
Let the real weather markets begin. Corn up 4 3/4 to 3.57, same rally in the wheat to 4.29 1/2. Beans rejected any break to close up 9, 10.66 1/4. Rice rallied late up 24, 10.76. Dow back to the central bank presses, any central bank really, up 34, 18,451, and bonds lulled around and wound up off 3 to 171.18. Week starting dull. Don't expect that to last long. I'm supposed to say something about earnings right about now. I'm not paid to spout that noise, so you will have to tune into a different channel if you want to swallow that drivel.
Let the real weather markets begin. Corn up 4 3/4 to 3.57, same rally in the wheat to 4.29 1/2. Beans rejected any break to close up 9, 10.66 1/4. Rice rallied late up 24, 10.76. Dow back to the central bank presses, any central bank really, up 34, 18,451, and bonds lulled around and wound up off 3 to 171.18. Week starting dull. Don't expect that to last long. I'm supposed to say something about earnings right about now. I'm not paid to spout that noise, so you will have to tune into a different channel if you want to swallow that drivel.
7/15
Wheat taking it on the chin to new lows, but not by much, down 9 1/4 to 4.24 3/4. Global stocks always the story, and we have a healthy amount to use up here as well. Going to see more adjustments in the feedlots. Corn off 5 1/2 to 3.52 1/4, while beans lost a nickel at the close as well, 10.57 1/4. Rice closed off 7 1/2 to 10.52 and held there by iceberg buying. My money says the govt is still way low on exports for next year, especially rough. Dow holding its breath for the weekend, off 10 to 18.417 while the bonds keep looking for the lower end of a new churning range off 1.11 to 171.21. Of note, some are starting to realize the fed just might flex their 1/4 point muscles, which would make the other central bankers reassess global policies. Might the maestro pick back up the baton? At some point it will be required. Do we manage to avoid crisis,, or manage by crisis?
Wheat taking it on the chin to new lows, but not by much, down 9 1/4 to 4.24 3/4. Global stocks always the story, and we have a healthy amount to use up here as well. Going to see more adjustments in the feedlots. Corn off 5 1/2 to 3.52 1/4, while beans lost a nickel at the close as well, 10.57 1/4. Rice closed off 7 1/2 to 10.52 and held there by iceberg buying. My money says the govt is still way low on exports for next year, especially rough. Dow holding its breath for the weekend, off 10 to 18.417 while the bonds keep looking for the lower end of a new churning range off 1.11 to 171.21. Of note, some are starting to realize the fed just might flex their 1/4 point muscles, which would make the other central bankers reassess global policies. Might the maestro pick back up the baton? At some point it will be required. Do we manage to avoid crisis,, or manage by crisis?
7/14
Little rain, lotto pain. Beans off 43 and thru technical points, key reversal, get out type of action to 10.62 1/4. Funny, because its higher tonight. Computers making rain forecasts, computers making sucker forecasts. Traders still thinking they are smarter than the computers. Listened briefly to an algo programmer yesterday at a function. They have more line of code in some of these programs than there is miles of road in some states. Think about that tomorrow when you get in your car. Corn off 4 1/4 to 3.57 3/4, and wheat off 5 3/4 to 4.34.Rice off 8 1/2 and into an iceberg buyer in November again. I don't care what the government says next years carry over is, as they will adjust that downward just like they did for this year on Tuesday. Rice business is being done at these levels and will continue to be done. This should be the best year in history for small exporters, and almost certainly will be for the bigger independent exporter. Perfect storm baby. Dow continues its muddy central bank waters rise, up 139 to 18,427, while the dow probes the lows established in a stall pattern on the tail end of June. I don't make specific calls, but a prudent man would observe that bonds are at a low point and looking to pop, dow is at a high point with out earnings or much of anything other than loose ECB and BOJ policies to keep it afloat, and we are about to enter a violent weekend in the global arena. If you cant figure out what to do, maybe you need a new hobby. Have a nice evening and weekend.
Little rain, lotto pain. Beans off 43 and thru technical points, key reversal, get out type of action to 10.62 1/4. Funny, because its higher tonight. Computers making rain forecasts, computers making sucker forecasts. Traders still thinking they are smarter than the computers. Listened briefly to an algo programmer yesterday at a function. They have more line of code in some of these programs than there is miles of road in some states. Think about that tomorrow when you get in your car. Corn off 4 1/4 to 3.57 3/4, and wheat off 5 3/4 to 4.34.Rice off 8 1/2 and into an iceberg buyer in November again. I don't care what the government says next years carry over is, as they will adjust that downward just like they did for this year on Tuesday. Rice business is being done at these levels and will continue to be done. This should be the best year in history for small exporters, and almost certainly will be for the bigger independent exporter. Perfect storm baby. Dow continues its muddy central bank waters rise, up 139 to 18,427, while the dow probes the lows established in a stall pattern on the tail end of June. I don't make specific calls, but a prudent man would observe that bonds are at a low point and looking to pop, dow is at a high point with out earnings or much of anything other than loose ECB and BOJ policies to keep it afloat, and we are about to enter a violent weekend in the global arena. If you cant figure out what to do, maybe you need a new hobby. Have a nice evening and weekend.
7/13
Weather market is the pure play for the next several weeks. Beans settled off their highs with a little moisture sneaking into some forecasts, but still 18 1/4 higher in the Nov., and above $11 at 11.05 1/4. Corn, which I believe has the most room for beneficial reports In the future, was also up 9 3/4 in the sept to 3.62. Wheat tried to stay in the dance, but international headwinds capped us at 4.39 3/4, up 1 1/4. Another unchanged day in rice, 10.68. Dow melt up on central bank money paused to catch its breath up only 24 to 18,288, but should keep up the march until we get the next negative news. Don't know what it will be, but I'm certain at the sun rises tomorrow that it will happen. Don't forget, these computers need to lull you to sleep first. Its much easier to pick the pocket of a sleeping man.. Bonds are attempting to put in the floor of the new churning range, up 1.05 to 174.31
Weather market is the pure play for the next several weeks. Beans settled off their highs with a little moisture sneaking into some forecasts, but still 18 1/4 higher in the Nov., and above $11 at 11.05 1/4. Corn, which I believe has the most room for beneficial reports In the future, was also up 9 3/4 in the sept to 3.62. Wheat tried to stay in the dance, but international headwinds capped us at 4.39 3/4, up 1 1/4. Another unchanged day in rice, 10.68. Dow melt up on central bank money paused to catch its breath up only 24 to 18,288, but should keep up the march until we get the next negative news. Don't know what it will be, but I'm certain at the sun rises tomorrow that it will happen. Don't forget, these computers need to lull you to sleep first. Its much easier to pick the pocket of a sleeping man.. Bonds are attempting to put in the floor of the new churning range, up 1.05 to 174.31
7/12
WASDE came in pretty much as expected, so we have promptly moved back into a weather market. Sept corn up 4 to 3.52 1/4, with wheat up 8 to 4.38 1/2. Global wheat will stay a drag, and we have plenty here. Hello feed. Beans up 32 on weather, and the numbers now are about where we thought in February. Rice dead and stalled at 10.68, but I still smell something afloat. Global stocks told an interesting story, and you better trust India to make their mark. I'm not so sure. Bonds off 1.28 to 173.26, while dow continues its record run, up 117 to 18,264. What's a dollar worth?
WASDE came in pretty much as expected, so we have promptly moved back into a weather market. Sept corn up 4 to 3.52 1/4, with wheat up 8 to 4.38 1/2. Global wheat will stay a drag, and we have plenty here. Hello feed. Beans up 32 on weather, and the numbers now are about where we thought in February. Rice dead and stalled at 10.68, but I still smell something afloat. Global stocks told an interesting story, and you better trust India to make their mark. I'm not so sure. Bonds off 1.28 to 173.26, while dow continues its record run, up 117 to 18,264. What's a dollar worth?
7/11
After a solid start to the day, grains back and filled in front of the WASDE report. The bets out there are like a casino, although I expect the real fireworks to be next month. Corn off 6 3/4 to 3.48 1/4, while wheat slipped a little less, off 4 1/2 to 4.30 1/2. Beans fought the good fight all day, but in the end followed suit , off 2 3/4 to 10.55. Rice again showed its misdirection but happily landed up 6 to 10.68 1/2. Watch the global shift in rice stocks tomorrow, from the exporting nations. Hint of the year. Muddy waters again lifted the dow, with all the talking heads wondering about helicopter Ben. We all know his stance and he is in Japan. Wow. No news is good news, and his news always run the presses. I like Ben. He was necessary and correct at the time. That time has passed. Doubt the Japanese will deviate because of him, but maybe someone in charge over there needs an endorsement to do something stupid. Once you leave the government, speeches and endorsements are the norm now.
After a solid start to the day, grains back and filled in front of the WASDE report. The bets out there are like a casino, although I expect the real fireworks to be next month. Corn off 6 3/4 to 3.48 1/4, while wheat slipped a little less, off 4 1/2 to 4.30 1/2. Beans fought the good fight all day, but in the end followed suit , off 2 3/4 to 10.55. Rice again showed its misdirection but happily landed up 6 to 10.68 1/2. Watch the global shift in rice stocks tomorrow, from the exporting nations. Hint of the year. Muddy waters again lifted the dow, with all the talking heads wondering about helicopter Ben. We all know his stance and he is in Japan. Wow. No news is good news, and his news always run the presses. I like Ben. He was necessary and correct at the time. That time has passed. Doubt the Japanese will deviate because of him, but maybe someone in charge over there needs an endorsement to do something stupid. Once you leave the government, speeches and endorsements are the norm now.
7/8
Solid grain day, as corn and beans went to support and powered up. Sept corn settles 3.55, up 13 1/4, and wheat up 9.1/2 to 4.35. Beans up 33 to 10.57 3/4. We put a little weather risk back in the markets, and I hope by now you understand that liquidity can be a fleeting thing. Rice gave up Thursdays gains as the typhoon going into china weakened. 10.62 1/2 , off 28. One more quick note on dirty central bank money clouding reality. Bonds up 22 to 176.30, while the dow floats higher, up 220 to settle 18.,038. I've been asked what will top the dow. You tell me when a central banker either falters or just gets caught with his pants down, and I'll call a violent break. At some point inflation talk will have to roll back into the vocabulary, if the PIIGS can stay out of trouble that long.
Solid grain day, as corn and beans went to support and powered up. Sept corn settles 3.55, up 13 1/4, and wheat up 9.1/2 to 4.35. Beans up 33 to 10.57 3/4. We put a little weather risk back in the markets, and I hope by now you understand that liquidity can be a fleeting thing. Rice gave up Thursdays gains as the typhoon going into china weakened. 10.62 1/2 , off 28. One more quick note on dirty central bank money clouding reality. Bonds up 22 to 176.30, while the dow floats higher, up 220 to settle 18.,038. I've been asked what will top the dow. You tell me when a central banker either falters or just gets caught with his pants down, and I'll call a violent break. At some point inflation talk will have to roll back into the vocabulary, if the PIIGS can stay out of trouble that long.
7/7
Strong opening in the grains, and bullish stories out of south America. Money flow headed for the door and market couldn't hold... Beans took it on the chin again, off 48 1/2 to 10.24 3/4. Wheat looses 3 to 4.25 1/2 and corn up 1/4 to 3.41 3/4. Rice pushes 31 1/2 higher to 10.90 1/2. Dow off 16 to 17,818, and bods continue towards zero, up 12 to 176.08. I wouldn't trust the chart boys here.
Strong opening in the grains, and bullish stories out of south America. Money flow headed for the door and market couldn't hold... Beans took it on the chin again, off 48 1/2 to 10.24 3/4. Wheat looses 3 to 4.25 1/2 and corn up 1/4 to 3.41 3/4. Rice pushes 31 1/2 higher to 10.90 1/2. Dow off 16 to 17,818, and bods continue towards zero, up 12 to 176.08. I wouldn't trust the chart boys here.
7/6
November beans rejected the 10.40 lows with vengeance, rallying almost back to unchanged late. Close off 4 cents to 10.73 1/4. Wheat off a nickel, 4.28 1/2, with corn the laggard off 9 1/4. 3.41 1/2. Breaks from here should be harder fought across the grain board. Rice pops 28 with ease to 10.59 and stories about a typhoon hitting China might have put sellers on their heals. Free money raised the dirty dow 72 to 17,834 while the bonds slipped 12 to 175.28.
November beans rejected the 10.40 lows with vengeance, rallying almost back to unchanged late. Close off 4 cents to 10.73 1/4. Wheat off a nickel, 4.28 1/2, with corn the laggard off 9 1/4. 3.41 1/2. Breaks from here should be harder fought across the grain board. Rice pops 28 with ease to 10.59 and stories about a typhoon hitting China might have put sellers on their heals. Free money raised the dirty dow 72 to 17,834 while the bonds slipped 12 to 175.28.
7/5
Dow off 104 to 17,762 ,with bonds up 2.18 to 176.08. Interest rate reset continues, followed by worthless dollars chasing nearly worthless assets, unless you are squeezing blood from the E suite. Rain makes grain, except wheat. Protein strength turns to long spec weakness with beans off 60 1/4 to 10.77 1/4. Still a buck more than we expected a few short months ago. Corn looses 9 1/4 to 3.50 3/4, while wheat closes higher by 3 1/4 at 4.33 1/2. I guess some old timers are still around who remember that whatever the news, its not too smart to be short wheat after the fourth. Rice gives up another 14 , 10.31 and spot worth about as much. Still smell a global story brewing in rice. This should be the best year in my 30 year history to be the big independent rice exporter in the small rice paddy, I mean pond.
Dow off 104 to 17,762 ,with bonds up 2.18 to 176.08. Interest rate reset continues, followed by worthless dollars chasing nearly worthless assets, unless you are squeezing blood from the E suite. Rain makes grain, except wheat. Protein strength turns to long spec weakness with beans off 60 1/4 to 10.77 1/4. Still a buck more than we expected a few short months ago. Corn looses 9 1/4 to 3.50 3/4, while wheat closes higher by 3 1/4 at 4.33 1/2. I guess some old timers are still around who remember that whatever the news, its not too smart to be short wheat after the fourth. Rice gives up another 14 , 10.31 and spot worth about as much. Still smell a global story brewing in rice. This should be the best year in my 30 year history to be the big independent rice exporter in the small rice paddy, I mean pond.
7/1
Dow futures finished the week on a solid positive note this week up another 47 to 17,866 totally erasing any Brexit losses and then some. If you get enough worthless currency from around the globe injected under mud, it will rise and float for a while before the paper becomes saturated and falls apart. Bonds up another 1.11 to 173.22. Why pay a saver to borrow money when a central banker will give it to you nearly free. Catching on to the theme yet? And when you cant even cover low rate interest payments, like, say, Puerto Rico , another government body will help you kick that can down the road as well. No reason to hold the (investor owners and insurers) of the debt accountable, when you can roll it into the public debt for the working man to pay off. As long as the elite keep food costs low enough, most commoners will just complain, not rise up. And now to the grains, all lower. September Corn off 5 1/2 to 3.60 . Wheat tosses 15 1/4 to 4.30 1/4, and KC now cheaper than a bow of captn crunch, with crunch berries of course. Beans backing off Thursdays rally by 15 1/5 in the November to 11.37 1/2. Protein is still the stalwart. Rice looses another 19 1/2 to 10.45, although we are now done with July deliveries and thru first notice pressures. Commitments show spec rolling from long to short by Fridays close. And commercials lightening their short. In the face of HUGE acres and new crop. I smell a rat. A big fat global rat with a bid that long. Have a safe and happy holiday.
Dow futures finished the week on a solid positive note this week up another 47 to 17,866 totally erasing any Brexit losses and then some. If you get enough worthless currency from around the globe injected under mud, it will rise and float for a while before the paper becomes saturated and falls apart. Bonds up another 1.11 to 173.22. Why pay a saver to borrow money when a central banker will give it to you nearly free. Catching on to the theme yet? And when you cant even cover low rate interest payments, like, say, Puerto Rico , another government body will help you kick that can down the road as well. No reason to hold the (investor owners and insurers) of the debt accountable, when you can roll it into the public debt for the working man to pay off. As long as the elite keep food costs low enough, most commoners will just complain, not rise up. And now to the grains, all lower. September Corn off 5 1/2 to 3.60 . Wheat tosses 15 1/4 to 4.30 1/4, and KC now cheaper than a bow of captn crunch, with crunch berries of course. Beans backing off Thursdays rally by 15 1/5 in the November to 11.37 1/2. Protein is still the stalwart. Rice looses another 19 1/2 to 10.45, although we are now done with July deliveries and thru first notice pressures. Commitments show spec rolling from long to short by Fridays close. And commercials lightening their short. In the face of HUGE acres and new crop. I smell a rat. A big fat global rat with a bid that long. Have a safe and happy holiday.
6/30
Dow keeps on marching, up 195 more to 17,819. Bonds slip 21 to 172.11, but really seemed to find resolve not to fail. NASS reports gave beans fuel to 11.53 1/4, up 40 3/4. Rice acres were up almost impossibly large, letting weakness take over, down 25 1/2 to 10.64 1/2. July deliveries pretty much already wrapped up with a small short paying up thru the day to move 70 or so. Corn acres up enough to drive a 12 1/4 loss to 3.65 1/2 in sept. Wheat flopped around and ended up a penny, 4.45 1/2.
Dow keeps on marching, up 195 more to 17,819. Bonds slip 21 to 172.11, but really seemed to find resolve not to fail. NASS reports gave beans fuel to 11.53 1/4, up 40 3/4. Rice acres were up almost impossibly large, letting weakness take over, down 25 1/2 to 10.64 1/2. July deliveries pretty much already wrapped up with a small short paying up thru the day to move 70 or so. Corn acres up enough to drive a 12 1/4 loss to 3.65 1/2 in sept. Wheat flopped around and ended up a penny, 4.45 1/2.
6/29
Dow futures strong again today, up 323 to 17,624. Any stock with a dividend is better than negative rates for now. Near zero rate worked for Japan for years because of the debt ownership structure, but the European negative rate ownership structure is absolutely unsustainable. Can't blame England for wanting away from that dance, but the talking heads don't want to go there until they have to. Bonds had stall day number two, 173 even, but they sucked short term vol out of the calls like a hoover today, and bonds are off a point tonight on nothing volume. Those boys in the options are the big leagues now, not the futures.. Free tip of the day. Rolling the beans to November and the rest of the grains to September. November beans off 7 3/4 to 11.12 1/2 on a back and fill day before tomorrows 11 am report. Corn lost 11 to 3.77 3/4, tied kicking and screaming to wheat. Speaking of, sept wheat off 12 3/4 to 4.44 1/2 . KC kissed below $4 for a quick peak into the abyss. Rice really did quite well for a first intentions day, off 3 1/2 to 10.90. Domestic report can be about as bearish as they want to print, but some day the global situation will trump our minimal excess. We talk in hundred weight while the world wants in metric tons.
Dow futures strong again today, up 323 to 17,624. Any stock with a dividend is better than negative rates for now. Near zero rate worked for Japan for years because of the debt ownership structure, but the European negative rate ownership structure is absolutely unsustainable. Can't blame England for wanting away from that dance, but the talking heads don't want to go there until they have to. Bonds had stall day number two, 173 even, but they sucked short term vol out of the calls like a hoover today, and bonds are off a point tonight on nothing volume. Those boys in the options are the big leagues now, not the futures.. Free tip of the day. Rolling the beans to November and the rest of the grains to September. November beans off 7 3/4 to 11.12 1/2 on a back and fill day before tomorrows 11 am report. Corn lost 11 to 3.77 3/4, tied kicking and screaming to wheat. Speaking of, sept wheat off 12 3/4 to 4.44 1/2 . KC kissed below $4 for a quick peak into the abyss. Rice really did quite well for a first intentions day, off 3 1/2 to 10.90. Domestic report can be about as bearish as they want to print, but some day the global situation will trump our minimal excess. We talk in hundred weight while the world wants in metric tons.
6/28
Dow futures get all Monday back and more, up 316 to 17,301 while bonds meander back and forth to a basic scratch day , 173.03. Beans are the feature grain again today, up 17 1/2 to 11.50 1/2. Corn couldn't hold morning strength and settled unchanged, 3.85 1/4, while wheat slipped 3 to 4.43 3/4. Rice also couldn't hold early bids and closed 17 lower, 10.67 1/2. Should see us go current in deliveries first notice day in rice for sure.
Dow futures get all Monday back and more, up 316 to 17,301 while bonds meander back and forth to a basic scratch day , 173.03. Beans are the feature grain again today, up 17 1/2 to 11.50 1/2. Corn couldn't hold morning strength and settled unchanged, 3.85 1/4, while wheat slipped 3 to 4.43 3/4. Rice also couldn't hold early bids and closed 17 lower, 10.67 1/2. Should see us go current in deliveries first notice day in rice for sure.
6/27
Hope you caught your breath. Looks like the world has yet again figured out its not over. Lets go over the sucker bets first. Dow off 262 to 16,985, and bonds up 3.06 to 173.05. Just outside the charts comfort zone and the world is going to pot. Not so fast. Tonight dow is up 150 at 11 Pm and bonds are rolling over like a puppy waiting for someone to rub her stomach. Tail wagging. Total obedience to her master. Feel the hook yet? Beans cast aside the 21 cent drop Friday for a 30 cent rally today to 11.33, and stronger tonight. Rice up 8 1/2 to 10.84 1/2 and well bid vs sept tonight. Don't forget we have a stronger dollar so grains shouldn't rally. Wheat off 8 to 4.46 3/4, because we are having a good set up for this years crop, and its potential currency for a dissolving EU, if that would happen. Corn faded late but still on the plus side at 3.85 1/4. Hoping to see some vol sucked out of the calls the next two days for a play.
Hope you caught your breath. Looks like the world has yet again figured out its not over. Lets go over the sucker bets first. Dow off 262 to 16,985, and bonds up 3.06 to 173.05. Just outside the charts comfort zone and the world is going to pot. Not so fast. Tonight dow is up 150 at 11 Pm and bonds are rolling over like a puppy waiting for someone to rub her stomach. Tail wagging. Total obedience to her master. Feel the hook yet? Beans cast aside the 21 cent drop Friday for a 30 cent rally today to 11.33, and stronger tonight. Rice up 8 1/2 to 10.84 1/2 and well bid vs sept tonight. Don't forget we have a stronger dollar so grains shouldn't rally. Wheat off 8 to 4.46 3/4, because we are having a good set up for this years crop, and its potential currency for a dissolving EU, if that would happen. Corn faded late but still on the plus side at 3.85 1/4. Hoping to see some vol sucked out of the calls the next two days for a play.
6/24
Brexit vote to leave the EU, and fear mongering in the press ensued. bonds rallied 4.11 to 169.31, and up another 2 points Sunday night. Dow looses 668 to 17,247, and down 100 tonight as well. Terrible, right? On 6/16 when everything was going smoothly, bonds settled 170.06. Had to go back to day before Yellen wiffed on a small interest rate rise for the dow to settle 17,148. In the grains world weather was the less hot and dry topic. July corn closed 3.84 1/2, and wheat stopped at 4.54 3/4. Beans had the biggest percentage spec and it showed the last two days, 11.03. Rice closed 10.76. I think all the grains are oversold, but the week before first notice is not normally the best time to buy.
Brexit vote to leave the EU, and fear mongering in the press ensued. bonds rallied 4.11 to 169.31, and up another 2 points Sunday night. Dow looses 668 to 17,247, and down 100 tonight as well. Terrible, right? On 6/16 when everything was going smoothly, bonds settled 170.06. Had to go back to day before Yellen wiffed on a small interest rate rise for the dow to settle 17,148. In the grains world weather was the less hot and dry topic. July corn closed 3.84 1/2, and wheat stopped at 4.54 3/4. Beans had the biggest percentage spec and it showed the last two days, 11.03. Rice closed 10.76. I think all the grains are oversold, but the week before first notice is not normally the best time to buy.
6/22
Boring day in front of export sales and Brexit. Corn off 3 1/4 to 3.93, while wheat gains 1/4, settling 4.58 3/4. beans pick up almost half of yesterdays loss to 11.37 1/2. Rice gives another 4 1/2 and below $11, 10.98 1/2. Dow gives up about 50 to 17,688, and bonds churn, 167.23. Tune in tomorrow for stimulus from the open with good export sales to the Brexit news for the close.
Boring day in front of export sales and Brexit. Corn off 3 1/4 to 3.93, while wheat gains 1/4, settling 4.58 3/4. beans pick up almost half of yesterdays loss to 11.37 1/2. Rice gives another 4 1/2 and below $11, 10.98 1/2. Dow gives up about 50 to 17,688, and bonds churn, 167.23. Tune in tomorrow for stimulus from the open with good export sales to the Brexit news for the close.
6/21
Did we mention weather markets? Corn limit down, 3.96 1/4 and probably overdone. Wheat driving to lows off 14 1/2 at 4.58 1/2. Beans off a dime and a quarter to 11.33 1/4, not bad for a bloody day. Rice off only 7 1/2, settling 11.03 and acting like some more business is being done. Bonds off about 1/2 a point to 167.19 and dow up 25 to 17,737. Count down to Brexit continues.
Did we mention weather markets? Corn limit down, 3.96 1/4 and probably overdone. Wheat driving to lows off 14 1/2 at 4.58 1/2. Beans off a dime and a quarter to 11.33 1/4, not bad for a bloody day. Rice off only 7 1/2, settling 11.03 and acting like some more business is being done. Bonds off about 1/2 a point to 167.19 and dow up 25 to 17,737. Count down to Brexit continues.
6/20
Copy and paste yesterday's first line. A few less degrees and a few more inches forecast. July corn gives up 2 weeks work on skittish new spec long liquidation to 4.21 1/4 , off 16 1/2. Beans loose 16 to 11.43 1/2 but bounced back to there, sellers out of breath. Wheat off 8 1/4, 4.73, and may be near the start of standing a little on its own. Less Brexit risk this morning according to the bookies in England. Have to love it when bookies openly dictate markets. Bonds give up another point to 168.01, and dow well off highs, but still up 153 to 17,712. So I have billions, and don't want brexit, because I have billions and might have to change my printing press, oligopoly, and soft money prearranged deals. Why not just throw a few pounds at the bookies and let them explain to the people that its really what the people want, because that's the way the betting is going. I cant believe the idea hasn't been already floated in a dime store novel. Fiction must not be able to create such a cast of characters as well as real life can.
Copy and paste yesterday's first line. A few less degrees and a few more inches forecast. July corn gives up 2 weeks work on skittish new spec long liquidation to 4.21 1/4 , off 16 1/2. Beans loose 16 to 11.43 1/2 but bounced back to there, sellers out of breath. Wheat off 8 1/4, 4.73, and may be near the start of standing a little on its own. Less Brexit risk this morning according to the bookies in England. Have to love it when bookies openly dictate markets. Bonds give up another point to 168.01, and dow well off highs, but still up 153 to 17,712. So I have billions, and don't want brexit, because I have billions and might have to change my printing press, oligopoly, and soft money prearranged deals. Why not just throw a few pounds at the bookies and let them explain to the people that its really what the people want, because that's the way the betting is going. I cant believe the idea hasn't been already floated in a dime store novel. Fiction must not be able to create such a cast of characters as well as real life can.
6/17
Weather market continues, and probably will at least thru the end of the month. July corn up 12 1/2 to 4.37 34, high close for the week. Wheat gains 8 3/4 to 4.81 1/4, while beans gain 25 to 11.59 1/2 and November beans even stronger. Rice off 1 1/2 to 11.29 1/2 on more July spec liquidation, Dow slipped 84 to 17,559 on weaker expected earnings, and the global concerns with a Brexit vote fast approaching. Bods rolled over and closed off a point plus 1 to 169.05 . Lots of different inputs to move the markets next week, no matter what you trade.
Weather market continues, and probably will at least thru the end of the month. July corn up 12 1/2 to 4.37 34, high close for the week. Wheat gains 8 3/4 to 4.81 1/4, while beans gain 25 to 11.59 1/2 and November beans even stronger. Rice off 1 1/2 to 11.29 1/2 on more July spec liquidation, Dow slipped 84 to 17,559 on weaker expected earnings, and the global concerns with a Brexit vote fast approaching. Bods rolled over and closed off a point plus 1 to 169.05 . Lots of different inputs to move the markets next week, no matter what you trade.
6/16
Rice gave up the export story rally on rumors that we missed Iraq, down 30 1/2 to 11.31. Corn off 3 3/4 to 4.25 1/4 and wheat slipped a nickel to 4.72 1/2. Beans broke to 11.34 1/2, but held key support and looking at dry and hot. Bonds popped thru my glass ceiling, and then set back, exhausted in my opinion, settle of 170.06, while the dow is finding footing with a pop to 17,643
Rice gave up the export story rally on rumors that we missed Iraq, down 30 1/2 to 11.31. Corn off 3 3/4 to 4.25 1/4 and wheat slipped a nickel to 4.72 1/2. Beans broke to 11.34 1/2, but held key support and looking at dry and hot. Bonds popped thru my glass ceiling, and then set back, exhausted in my opinion, settle of 170.06, while the dow is finding footing with a pop to 17,643
6/15
July rice is the feature today, up 32 to 11.61 1/2 on export business, domestic milling, and improved technical outlook. Other grains took a breather, and did some minor technical damage. Corn and wheat each off 7 1/2, corn to 4.29, and wheat settle of 4.77 1/2. Beans gave up 13 1/2 to 11.56. Yellen was a no show today, and yet the dow lost 22 to 17,552, and bonds found only 9, butting fiercely against the glass ceiling at 169.07, settle, within a point and ten of global change.
July rice is the feature today, up 32 to 11.61 1/2 on export business, domestic milling, and improved technical outlook. Other grains took a breather, and did some minor technical damage. Corn and wheat each off 7 1/2, corn to 4.29, and wheat settle of 4.77 1/2. Beans gave up 13 1/2 to 11.56. Yellen was a no show today, and yet the dow lost 22 to 17,552, and bonds found only 9, butting fiercely against the glass ceiling at 169.07, settle, within a point and ten of global change.
6/14
July corn was the lead again today. All the grains rejected early lows, with corn up 6 1/2 to 4.36 1/2. Wheat gave up 6 1/4 to 4.85, while beans rallied back above unchanged, up 1/2 to 11.69 1/2. Rice gave up 2 to 11.29 1/2 with decent spread roll volume. Dow had a good bounce, but still off over 60 points at 17,572 while bonds stalled up 5 , 168.30 Talked to London today, and the Brexit bet is 50-50. ECB aristocrats are shaking in their boots. Three months ago no one saw much chance in Soybeans, Brexit, or The Donald. One down, two to go?
July corn was the lead again today. All the grains rejected early lows, with corn up 6 1/2 to 4.36 1/2. Wheat gave up 6 1/4 to 4.85, while beans rallied back above unchanged, up 1/2 to 11.69 1/2. Rice gave up 2 to 11.29 1/2 with decent spread roll volume. Dow had a good bounce, but still off over 60 points at 17,572 while bonds stalled up 5 , 168.30 Talked to London today, and the Brexit bet is 50-50. ECB aristocrats are shaking in their boots. Three months ago no one saw much chance in Soybeans, Brexit, or The Donald. One down, two to go?
6/13
July corn closed 4.30, up 7 but off its early highs. Beans and wheat opened strong as well but faded. Not sure if we are just catching our breath, or about to have a bit of a setback. Wheat off 3 3/4 to 4.91 1/4, and beans off9 1/4 to 11.69. Rice saw some more July liquidation pressure, giving up 4 to settle 11.31 1/2. September dow looses 137 to 17,639 while the bonds pop 14, 168.25. Talking heads on TV are worried about Brexit and the bund. And Trump. What they, and the ruling class don't seem to get is that the normal working class just cant keep carrying all the water from all the poor fiscal, social, and regulatory mandates that have been handed down in the last decade. The working class Brit doesn't want to leave the EU, but he sees no other choice. He is voting his pocketbook and his life. Same goes here for Trump. The working, tax paying family may not want to vote Trump, but he sees no other choice. I believe we are going to have several resets in government structure all aver the globe in the coming months, and it wont always be pretty. We haven't heard from Greece in a while.
July corn closed 4.30, up 7 but off its early highs. Beans and wheat opened strong as well but faded. Not sure if we are just catching our breath, or about to have a bit of a setback. Wheat off 3 3/4 to 4.91 1/4, and beans off9 1/4 to 11.69. Rice saw some more July liquidation pressure, giving up 4 to settle 11.31 1/2. September dow looses 137 to 17,639 while the bonds pop 14, 168.25. Talking heads on TV are worried about Brexit and the bund. And Trump. What they, and the ruling class don't seem to get is that the normal working class just cant keep carrying all the water from all the poor fiscal, social, and regulatory mandates that have been handed down in the last decade. The working class Brit doesn't want to leave the EU, but he sees no other choice. He is voting his pocketbook and his life. Same goes here for Trump. The working, tax paying family may not want to vote Trump, but he sees no other choice. I believe we are going to have several resets in government structure all aver the globe in the coming months, and it wont always be pretty. We haven't heard from Greece in a while.
6/10
Corn and beans had supportive numbers, while wheat was soft and rice has room for improvement. Corn and beans both settled well off highs, with July corn down 3 1/2 to 4.23, and July beans up 2 1/4 to 11.78 1/4. Wheat supply looks to be burdensome, down 15 1/4 cents to 4.95. Rice absorbed a benign report to close up 3 1/2, 11.35 1/2. Dow leaked 107 to 17,866, and we will be switching to September from here forward. Sept. bonds gained 26 to 168.11.
Corn and beans had supportive numbers, while wheat was soft and rice has room for improvement. Corn and beans both settled well off highs, with July corn down 3 1/2 to 4.23, and July beans up 2 1/4 to 11.78 1/4. Wheat supply looks to be burdensome, down 15 1/4 cents to 4.95. Rice absorbed a benign report to close up 3 1/2, 11.35 1/2. Dow leaked 107 to 17,866, and we will be switching to September from here forward. Sept. bonds gained 26 to 168.11.
6/9
Evening up before the S and D report tomorrow. Corn slips 4 3/4 to 4.26 1/2 while wheat gives up most of yesterday to 5.10 1/4, off 9 1/4. Beans held well, off 1 3/4 to 11.76. Rice dropped another 21 to give up the whole weeks gains to 11.32. Dow drifted slightly lower to 17,973, and bond pop about 3/4 of a point to 167.17. Tune in tomorrow at 11
Evening up before the S and D report tomorrow. Corn slips 4 3/4 to 4.26 1/2 while wheat gives up most of yesterday to 5.10 1/4, off 9 1/4. Beans held well, off 1 3/4 to 11.76. Rice dropped another 21 to give up the whole weeks gains to 11.32. Dow drifted slightly lower to 17,973, and bond pop about 3/4 of a point to 167.17. Tune in tomorrow at 11
6/8
Global situation continues to drive the big picture, while Midwest weather pushes day to day. Corn up 3 1/2 to end the day, with space above on the next bull story easier to fill, closing 4.31 1/4. Wheat shorts finding the exit door today as well, up 10 1/2 to 5.19 1/2. Beans starting to show they have powered thru domestic supply in old crop and now moving to the next level. 11.77 3/4, up 36 1/2. Rice slipped 21, to 11.53. Air on both sides of this market, waiting for business or a coop cash dump. Maybe we see both, but I have to believe we have more business coming. Bonds up 12 to 166.27, and dow up 62 to 17,995.
Global situation continues to drive the big picture, while Midwest weather pushes day to day. Corn up 3 1/2 to end the day, with space above on the next bull story easier to fill, closing 4.31 1/4. Wheat shorts finding the exit door today as well, up 10 1/2 to 5.19 1/2. Beans starting to show they have powered thru domestic supply in old crop and now moving to the next level. 11.77 3/4, up 36 1/2. Rice slipped 21, to 11.53. Air on both sides of this market, waiting for business or a coop cash dump. Maybe we see both, but I have to believe we have more business coming. Bonds up 12 to 166.27, and dow up 62 to 17,995.
6/7
Big day of nothing, but held gains. Wheat up a penny and a half to 5.09, and corn up a half to 4.27 3/4. Beans gain3 to 11.41 1/4, and rice gained 3 1/2 to 11.74. Bonds and dow up a little, to 166.15, and 17,933.
Big day of nothing, but held gains. Wheat up a penny and a half to 5.09, and corn up a half to 4.27 3/4. Beans gain3 to 11.41 1/4, and rice gained 3 1/2 to 11.74. Bonds and dow up a little, to 166.15, and 17,933.
6/6
Wheat continuing its strength to start the week, up another 10 1/4 to 5.07 1/2, with corn in tow, up 9, settling 4.27 1/4. July beans settled well of the days highs, up 6 1/4 , 11.38 1/4, as bean strength moves to new crop. Rice accelerated its rally, up 33 1/2 to 11.70 1/2. Bond yo-yo starts to unwind,off 1/2 point to 166.03, while dow pops a hair more than 100 to 17,915
Wheat continuing its strength to start the week, up another 10 1/4 to 5.07 1/2, with corn in tow, up 9, settling 4.27 1/4. July beans settled well of the days highs, up 6 1/4 , 11.38 1/4, as bean strength moves to new crop. Rice accelerated its rally, up 33 1/2 to 11.70 1/2. Bond yo-yo starts to unwind,off 1/2 point to 166.03, while dow pops a hair more than 100 to 17,915
6/3
A very strong week for the wheat market, closing up another 11 3/4 to 4.97 1/4, almost 30 cents on the week. Corn gained 3 to 4.18 1/4 as well. The bean-meal old crop squeeze took a break to end the week, with July beans loosing 12 1/4 to 11.32.. Rice had a fair amount of options activity, but closed unchanged on the day at 11.37, with a short week gain of 43 cents. Thai rice has more friendly stories as they eat into what turns out to be very poor quality reserve stocks from the previous regime. On the financial side, a miserable jobs number set the tone early for the bonds, closing up almost 2 full points to 166.19, while the dow had to dig itself out of a hole to close down only 25 at 17,800. Unless the global equity markets unwind next week, we have a very tightly wound string on the bond yo-yo.
A very strong week for the wheat market, closing up another 11 3/4 to 4.97 1/4, almost 30 cents on the week. Corn gained 3 to 4.18 1/4 as well. The bean-meal old crop squeeze took a break to end the week, with July beans loosing 12 1/4 to 11.32.. Rice had a fair amount of options activity, but closed unchanged on the day at 11.37, with a short week gain of 43 cents. Thai rice has more friendly stories as they eat into what turns out to be very poor quality reserve stocks from the previous regime. On the financial side, a miserable jobs number set the tone early for the bonds, closing up almost 2 full points to 166.19, while the dow had to dig itself out of a hole to close down only 25 at 17,800. Unless the global equity markets unwind next week, we have a very tightly wound string on the bond yo-yo.
6/2
Corn stayed at home, up only a penny and a half to 4.15 1/4. Wheat ran with the beans to 4.85 1/2, up 11 3/4. Speaking of July beans, 11.44 1/4 close for a gain of 44 1/2 and an old crop new crop spread gain of more than 30 cents. Someone clearly got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Rice finding more love as well, up 37 1/2 to 11.37. Dow clicked back up to a 17,825 close, while bonds found another point, switching to September today with a close at 164.21. Is the yo-yo back in style? Today we wound the string.
Corn stayed at home, up only a penny and a half to 4.15 1/4. Wheat ran with the beans to 4.85 1/2, up 11 3/4. Speaking of July beans, 11.44 1/4 close for a gain of 44 1/2 and an old crop new crop spread gain of more than 30 cents. Someone clearly got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Rice finding more love as well, up 37 1/2 to 11.37. Dow clicked back up to a 17,825 close, while bonds found another point, switching to September today with a close at 164.21. Is the yo-yo back in style? Today we wound the string.
6/1
New month, new fund money. Corn up 9 to 4.13 3/4, with a wheat mirror, up 9 1/4 to 4.73 3/4. Beans just kept climbing, closing up 21 1/4, 10.99 3/4. Rice held Fridays gains, plus 5 1/2 to 10.99 1/2. Dow and bonds are staging for a show, but not sure which piece of news will be used to justify the next computer found weakness. Your weakness. dow 17,779, or bonds 164.30. If I was a betting man, I'd think the bonds are set for the easiest churn. Heck, sometimes I am a betting man. Bonds are up 20 tonight, and we are rolling to September as top step for my commentary starting tomorrow.
New month, new fund money. Corn up 9 to 4.13 3/4, with a wheat mirror, up 9 1/4 to 4.73 3/4. Beans just kept climbing, closing up 21 1/4, 10.99 3/4. Rice held Fridays gains, plus 5 1/2 to 10.99 1/2. Dow and bonds are staging for a show, but not sure which piece of news will be used to justify the next computer found weakness. Your weakness. dow 17,779, or bonds 164.30. If I was a betting man, I'd think the bonds are set for the easiest churn. Heck, sometimes I am a betting man. Bonds are up 20 tonight, and we are rolling to September as top step for my commentary starting tomorrow.
5/31
Hope everyone had a great weekend, and took a moment to reflect on why the holiday exists. Mild weather in the grain belt allowed for finishing the remaining acres needing attention. We also have month end, and the roll all taking a swipe at bulls. Corn lost 8 to 4.04 3/4, while wheat fell hard , off 17 to 4.64 1/2. Bean spreads weaker and July lost 8 to 10.78 1/2. Rice found some global support, as well as shoring up an oversold market, up 17 1/2 to 10.94. Dow closed off 75 to 17,774, and that was a bounce, while bonds broke early, but rebounded a point and a half to settle 13 higher, 164.23.
Hope everyone had a great weekend, and took a moment to reflect on why the holiday exists. Mild weather in the grain belt allowed for finishing the remaining acres needing attention. We also have month end, and the roll all taking a swipe at bulls. Corn lost 8 to 4.04 3/4, while wheat fell hard , off 17 to 4.64 1/2. Bean spreads weaker and July lost 8 to 10.78 1/2. Rice found some global support, as well as shoring up an oversold market, up 17 1/2 to 10.94. Dow closed off 75 to 17,774, and that was a bounce, while bonds broke early, but rebounded a point and a half to settle 13 higher, 164.23.
5/27
Grains less rice were reasonably strong again.. July corn up 4 1/2 to 4.12 3/4, and again no options indicators. Wheat kept its Thursday gains + 1/4 to 4.81 1/2. Beans found another 6 3/4 to10.86 1/2. Rice fell almost 30 cents more, and a dollar since last Friday, to 10.76 1/2. The global rice tides have not gotten negative in any way that I can see, which goes to show how important order flow is to rice pricing. Or lack there of. Bonds steeled nicely back into range, down 8 tics to 164.10, and the dow found 32 late and in spite of Yellen and the fed to close 17,849
Grains less rice were reasonably strong again.. July corn up 4 1/2 to 4.12 3/4, and again no options indicators. Wheat kept its Thursday gains + 1/4 to 4.81 1/2. Beans found another 6 3/4 to10.86 1/2. Rice fell almost 30 cents more, and a dollar since last Friday, to 10.76 1/2. The global rice tides have not gotten negative in any way that I can see, which goes to show how important order flow is to rice pricing. Or lack there of. Bonds steeled nicely back into range, down 8 tics to 164.10, and the dow found 32 late and in spite of Yellen and the fed to close 17,849
5/26
Wheat finally stood on its own today, up 15 1/4 to 4.81 1/4. Still a big spec short. Corn ticked 3 1/2 better as well, to 4.08 1/4. Beans gave up a little of yesterdays gains to 10.79 3/4, off 5 3/4. Rice off another 21, but now down into an area of options congestion at 11.06. Dow flopped around unchanged, 17,817, while the bonds rallied a point to the high side of its boring range of late, 164.18. Yellen speaks tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see the tantrums when the street figures out she absolutely has to raise rates in June. If there is something you would like to see added, drop me a line in the contacts section. Its a lot easier to tune this post with input from the viewer.
Wheat finally stood on its own today, up 15 1/4 to 4.81 1/4. Still a big spec short. Corn ticked 3 1/2 better as well, to 4.08 1/4. Beans gave up a little of yesterdays gains to 10.79 3/4, off 5 3/4. Rice off another 21, but now down into an area of options congestion at 11.06. Dow flopped around unchanged, 17,817, while the bonds rallied a point to the high side of its boring range of late, 164.18. Yellen speaks tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see the tantrums when the street figures out she absolutely has to raise rates in June. If there is something you would like to see added, drop me a line in the contacts section. Its a lot easier to tune this post with input from the viewer.
5/25
Well, the resting grain market didn't rest long. Corn up 7 1/4 to 4.04 3/4, dragging wheat up 2 to 4.66. Beans rallied 30 3/4 to 10.85 1/2, dragged up by July meal. Rice lost 30 to 11.27. Bonds gave up about 1/2 a point to 163.19, and the dow pops 140 to 17,817. What do you want first? Dow finds itself on the high side of a chart, in what has to be described as a churn market, with bonds again in a dull trade. Markets churn up, markets churn down. you make the next call. Grains are a curious player. If the La Nina drought sweeps across America, we are too cheap. In all grains. Buying American grain is the call option for the world. The biggest food item is wheat, but corn has to drag it to the dance. Beans have to be dragged by meal, which has a maintenance story with the logistical issues that go with it, as well as a massive July open interest , which cannot and will not stay in July much longer. Rice has global stocks of dubious quality, and quantity, yet fall 30. Most all of rice carry over sets in the hands of two players, while the hand to mouth guys in America sweat, praying for an early and abundant harvest. The individual nuances of each contract are making themselves known, and the computers are exploiting what the specifications allow them. Moving forward, know your specific contracts rules. To the tee. That already has, and should continue, to pay dividends this year.
Well, the resting grain market didn't rest long. Corn up 7 1/4 to 4.04 3/4, dragging wheat up 2 to 4.66. Beans rallied 30 3/4 to 10.85 1/2, dragged up by July meal. Rice lost 30 to 11.27. Bonds gave up about 1/2 a point to 163.19, and the dow pops 140 to 17,817. What do you want first? Dow finds itself on the high side of a chart, in what has to be described as a churn market, with bonds again in a dull trade. Markets churn up, markets churn down. you make the next call. Grains are a curious player. If the La Nina drought sweeps across America, we are too cheap. In all grains. Buying American grain is the call option for the world. The biggest food item is wheat, but corn has to drag it to the dance. Beans have to be dragged by meal, which has a maintenance story with the logistical issues that go with it, as well as a massive July open interest , which cannot and will not stay in July much longer. Rice has global stocks of dubious quality, and quantity, yet fall 30. Most all of rice carry over sets in the hands of two players, while the hand to mouth guys in America sweat, praying for an early and abundant harvest. The individual nuances of each contract are making themselves known, and the computers are exploiting what the specifications allow them. Moving forward, know your specific contracts rules. To the tee. That already has, and should continue, to pay dividends this year.
5/24
Grains rested today, and options volatility faded away. Corn off a tic to 3.97 1/2, and wheat up a couple to 4.64. beans off small to 10.54 3/4 after a down and up and down day. Rice gave up another 4 1/2 to 11.57, again with a quiet buyer taking some size from the sellers. Dow did its boring Monday pop today instead, up over 200 to 17,687, and bonds mulled around on the soft side all day, rebounding to settle off 13 at 164.02. In the bonds , that's four days in a 1/2 point settlement range. Don't expect that to last.
Grains rested today, and options volatility faded away. Corn off a tic to 3.97 1/2, and wheat up a couple to 4.64. beans off small to 10.54 3/4 after a down and up and down day. Rice gave up another 4 1/2 to 11.57, again with a quiet buyer taking some size from the sellers. Dow did its boring Monday pop today instead, up over 200 to 17,687, and bonds mulled around on the soft side all day, rebounding to settle off 13 at 164.02. In the bonds , that's four days in a 1/2 point settlement range. Don't expect that to last.
5/23
Corn continued its strength, up 3 1/4 to3.97 3/4, with global stories of surplus continuing to weigh on wheat, 4.62, off another 5 3/4. Meal rolled over, maybe for the move, allowing beans to fall 15 3/4 to 10.58 1/2. Rice had a motivated seller, who was met by a gentile giant buyer during its 15 1/2 cent break to 11.61 1/2. Dow and bonds were a non event Monday, dow off 12 to 17,470, and bonds up 7 to 164.15.
Corn continued its strength, up 3 1/4 to3.97 3/4, with global stories of surplus continuing to weigh on wheat, 4.62, off another 5 3/4. Meal rolled over, maybe for the move, allowing beans to fall 15 3/4 to 10.58 1/2. Rice had a motivated seller, who was met by a gentile giant buyer during its 15 1/2 cent break to 11.61 1/2. Dow and bonds were a non event Monday, dow off 12 to 17,470, and bonds up 7 to 164.15.
5/20
Corn bounced back 4 1/2 cents to settle 3.94 1/2. Wheat slipped a penny to 4.67 3/4. Beans whipped around throughout the day, closing up 2 3/4 at 10.74 1/4, with the n/x spread up 21 cents at one time. I think you might be seeing more spec money in the front, while new crop is starting to digest bigger acres. With rolls starting next week, bull is going to need a new source of food. I'm starting to loose that loving feeling for corn for now as well. Rice dropped 7 1/2 to settle 11.77 on some pretty good put selling. Bonds dropped and then rallied back to down only 3, 164.08, while the dow staged a small 67 point gain to 17,482. Every talking head on TV wants to get to the sidelines now that Goldman and-or the Fed has set a top. Still up 67. I'm curious how many real world business deals don't get done because short term rates go to 1 percent. Or 2 percent. Or 3 percent. I've seen stories about difficulties with something as simple as a HELOC, with over 50 percent equity. No 1 percent rates there either, or 2, or 3. Something in all this low interest rate environment makes it easier for the big banks to make their money without actually doing what they are supposed to do. Maybe the real story is the fed is trying to wean the piglets from the teat. .
Corn bounced back 4 1/2 cents to settle 3.94 1/2. Wheat slipped a penny to 4.67 3/4. Beans whipped around throughout the day, closing up 2 3/4 at 10.74 1/4, with the n/x spread up 21 cents at one time. I think you might be seeing more spec money in the front, while new crop is starting to digest bigger acres. With rolls starting next week, bull is going to need a new source of food. I'm starting to loose that loving feeling for corn for now as well. Rice dropped 7 1/2 to settle 11.77 on some pretty good put selling. Bonds dropped and then rallied back to down only 3, 164.08, while the dow staged a small 67 point gain to 17,482. Every talking head on TV wants to get to the sidelines now that Goldman and-or the Fed has set a top. Still up 67. I'm curious how many real world business deals don't get done because short term rates go to 1 percent. Or 2 percent. Or 3 percent. I've seen stories about difficulties with something as simple as a HELOC, with over 50 percent equity. No 1 percent rates there either, or 2, or 3. Something in all this low interest rate environment makes it easier for the big banks to make their money without actually doing what they are supposed to do. Maybe the real story is the fed is trying to wean the piglets from the teat. .
5/19
Grains took a pretty good hit today, but beans rallied 20 to close 10.71 1/2, not even 4 lower. Not so good for wheat and corn, with corn down 9 1/2 to 3.90 and wheat settling 4.68 3/4, off 11 1/4. Rice finally tipped over today as well, 11.84 1/2,off 30 cents. 145 calls sold yesterday have to be feeling good, as puts were offered today, smacking vol. in the break. Bonds popped a point to 164.11, and the dow continued its leak down test to 17,415. I'm not writing this economic engine off yet. Friday would be a fine day to stir up a dow rally, and there is air above for a good while. Bonds made up half of Wednesday, and if we are to believe the fed and Goldman, the bar here has to drop. Not collapse, but find a new lower channel to churn.
Grains took a pretty good hit today, but beans rallied 20 to close 10.71 1/2, not even 4 lower. Not so good for wheat and corn, with corn down 9 1/2 to 3.90 and wheat settling 4.68 3/4, off 11 1/4. Rice finally tipped over today as well, 11.84 1/2,off 30 cents. 145 calls sold yesterday have to be feeling good, as puts were offered today, smacking vol. in the break. Bonds popped a point to 164.11, and the dow continued its leak down test to 17,415. I'm not writing this economic engine off yet. Friday would be a fine day to stir up a dow rally, and there is air above for a good while. Bonds made up half of Wednesday, and if we are to believe the fed and Goldman, the bar here has to drop. Not collapse, but find a new lower channel to churn.
5/18
Fed speak clarified the yo-yo effect today. With the fed in June raising mood, the dow and bonds will need to find a new equilibrium before they start the churn anew. Dow was up 100 before fed minutes release, then a 200 point break, followed by a rally back to almost flat, at 17,479. Bonds took it on the chin, off more than 2 full points to 163.08. We are still inside the yo-yo range. Corn rallied 2 1/2 to 3.99 1/2, and wheat slipped a little to 4.80. Beans gave up another nickel to 10.75 1/4, and rice found its way back above unchanged to 12.14 1/2. Going to be some awful nice planting weather to close up shop this weekend, weather you are replanting or just now getting the job done the first time. When the work gets done, people and markets tend to take a brake.
Fed speak clarified the yo-yo effect today. With the fed in June raising mood, the dow and bonds will need to find a new equilibrium before they start the churn anew. Dow was up 100 before fed minutes release, then a 200 point break, followed by a rally back to almost flat, at 17,479. Bonds took it on the chin, off more than 2 full points to 163.08. We are still inside the yo-yo range. Corn rallied 2 1/2 to 3.99 1/2, and wheat slipped a little to 4.80. Beans gave up another nickel to 10.75 1/4, and rice found its way back above unchanged to 12.14 1/2. Going to be some awful nice planting weather to close up shop this weekend, weather you are replanting or just now getting the job done the first time. When the work gets done, people and markets tend to take a brake.
5/17
Bonds do almost nothing, ending the day at 165.24, while the Dow looses almost 200 to 17,489. As the bonds didn't react, I begin to wonder if the dow is the yo-yo of the week. Tomorrow will tell how the computers want to herd, but if you know the bond pattern, you should be a quick study with what to do in the dow tomorrow. Place your bets, and may lady luck be with you. Strength across the grain room today, with corn going out on the high side at 3.97, up 3, and wheat even stronger, up 7 to 4.81 3/4. Beans made a run back up near recent highs, settling 15 3/4 higher at 10.80 1/4. Rice continues its impressive march, closing over the buck at 12.11, up 18.
Bonds do almost nothing, ending the day at 165.24, while the Dow looses almost 200 to 17,489. As the bonds didn't react, I begin to wonder if the dow is the yo-yo of the week. Tomorrow will tell how the computers want to herd, but if you know the bond pattern, you should be a quick study with what to do in the dow tomorrow. Place your bets, and may lady luck be with you. Strength across the grain room today, with corn going out on the high side at 3.97, up 3, and wheat even stronger, up 7 to 4.81 3/4. Beans made a run back up near recent highs, settling 15 3/4 higher at 10.80 1/4. Rice continues its impressive march, closing over the buck at 12.11, up 18.
5/16
Dow and bonds just did a reset and took away all Fridays action. Dow back up to within a few of Thursdays close, at 17,664, and bonds crack back down to within a few of Thursdays close as well, 165.18. See the line before last on 5/13 comments.. I didn't think it would be this close of a mirror, but when the computers are in charge, the computers are in charge. Corn continues its rally up another 3 1/4 to 3.94, and after a slow start, wheat ends flat at 4.74 3/4. Beans shook off early pressure as well to close off 1/2 cent at 10.64 1/2. Rice continues it upward march, against all odds and most commercials, settling 11.93, up 24 1/2.. I believe there is more cold damage in the northern grain belt than the market has originally discounted, so expect problem field reports in the coming days.
Dow and bonds just did a reset and took away all Fridays action. Dow back up to within a few of Thursdays close, at 17,664, and bonds crack back down to within a few of Thursdays close as well, 165.18. See the line before last on 5/13 comments.. I didn't think it would be this close of a mirror, but when the computers are in charge, the computers are in charge. Corn continues its rally up another 3 1/4 to 3.94, and after a slow start, wheat ends flat at 4.74 3/4. Beans shook off early pressure as well to close off 1/2 cent at 10.64 1/2. Rice continues it upward march, against all odds and most commercials, settling 11.93, up 24 1/2.. I believe there is more cold damage in the northern grain belt than the market has originally discounted, so expect problem field reports in the coming days.
5 /13
Corn and wheat traded better on the day, with corn up 1 3/4 to 3..90 3/4, and wheat up 6 3/4 to 4.74 3/4. On the ratios, market is telling you wheat is probably about cheap enough for now. Beans did a little more backfilling, off 7 to 10.65. Rice took a breather as well, off 13 to 11.68 1/2. Bond room had a bit of flight to quality, of safety, or the sidelines, or perceived liquidity. you pick the story. Dow drops 173 to 17,495, and bonds pop a point 09 to 166.23. If the dow finds its feet on Sunday night-Monday morning, this should be an easy pick for the bond day traders. Sunday night will also give us a bit of idea if we did any cold weather damage in the northern ag belt.
Corn and wheat traded better on the day, with corn up 1 3/4 to 3..90 3/4, and wheat up 6 3/4 to 4.74 3/4. On the ratios, market is telling you wheat is probably about cheap enough for now. Beans did a little more backfilling, off 7 to 10.65. Rice took a breather as well, off 13 to 11.68 1/2. Bond room had a bit of flight to quality, of safety, or the sidelines, or perceived liquidity. you pick the story. Dow drops 173 to 17,495, and bonds pop a point 09 to 166.23. If the dow finds its feet on Sunday night-Monday morning, this should be an easy pick for the bond day traders. Sunday night will also give us a bit of idea if we did any cold weather damage in the northern ag belt.
5/12
Beans backed up a little more from their report highs, closing down6 1/4 at 10.72. Corn and wheat found life today, with corn up 11 1/2 to 3.89, and wheat up 9 to 4.68. Rice powered up all day as well, ending up 32 1/2 , 11.81 1/2. Bond yo-yo started to unwind today, down almost a point to 165.14, and the dow recovered from another 100+ drop to close near unchanged, 17,668. Lots of background stories in the grains as well as financials. Always want to be a little more careful fading a move when that's the case.
Beans backed up a little more from their report highs, closing down6 1/4 at 10.72. Corn and wheat found life today, with corn up 11 1/2 to 3.89, and wheat up 9 to 4.68. Rice powered up all day as well, ending up 32 1/2 , 11.81 1/2. Bond yo-yo started to unwind today, down almost a point to 165.14, and the dow recovered from another 100+ drop to close near unchanged, 17,668. Lots of background stories in the grains as well as financials. Always want to be a little more careful fading a move when that's the case.
5/11
Little breather today in the grain room. Corn dropped 3 1/2 to 3.77 1/2 and wheat slipped 2 1/4 to 4.59. Wheat is going to feed prices everywhere, and we are getting to ratios where it replaces corn more and more. Beans eased to 10.78 1 /4, off 5 3/4. Rice gained 9 with solid buying, first quietly, and then with more attention late. Dow gave up yesterdays 200 gain to 17,659, and bonds closed 166.06, up 1/2 a point. This is the high side of the yo-yo. You work the string from here.
Little breather today in the grain room. Corn dropped 3 1/2 to 3.77 1/2 and wheat slipped 2 1/4 to 4.59. Wheat is going to feed prices everywhere, and we are getting to ratios where it replaces corn more and more. Beans eased to 10.78 1 /4, off 5 3/4. Rice gained 9 with solid buying, first quietly, and then with more attention late. Dow gave up yesterdays 200 gain to 17,659, and bonds closed 166.06, up 1/2 a point. This is the high side of the yo-yo. You work the string from here.
5/10
WASDE was a rocker in the beans. July beans up 57 1/2 to 10.84 on a 16/17 carry over of 305. That's an aggressive number on a crop not yet half planted, and with more acres being added every rain. Corn up 12 to 3.81, and wheat up 4 3/4 to 4.61 1/4. My take on corn was a little negative, and wheat a lot negative. Wheat will have to compete with corn for feed use if India gets the rain it needs. Perhaps corn will have to compete with wheat? Rice up 18 1/2 to 11.40, but with a very high carryover as well. Dow up a couple hundred on easy money flow, 17,853, and bonds flat at 165.18.
My take is, grains all heard what they wanted to hear. Money is easy and getting easier, like an Eddie Money song, so I wont be the one to pick the top, but I think a guy could market this years crop a few times with this blueprint moving thru the year. Picking price and picking basis will be the sporting clays to shoot.
WASDE was a rocker in the beans. July beans up 57 1/2 to 10.84 on a 16/17 carry over of 305. That's an aggressive number on a crop not yet half planted, and with more acres being added every rain. Corn up 12 to 3.81, and wheat up 4 3/4 to 4.61 1/4. My take on corn was a little negative, and wheat a lot negative. Wheat will have to compete with corn for feed use if India gets the rain it needs. Perhaps corn will have to compete with wheat? Rice up 18 1/2 to 11.40, but with a very high carryover as well. Dow up a couple hundred on easy money flow, 17,853, and bonds flat at 165.18.
My take is, grains all heard what they wanted to hear. Money is easy and getting easier, like an Eddie Money song, so I wont be the one to pick the top, but I think a guy could market this years crop a few times with this blueprint moving thru the year. Picking price and picking basis will be the sporting clays to shoot.
5/9
Corn and wheat both take a hit pre-report. Corn off 8 1/2 to 3.69, and wheat off 7 1/4 to 4.56 1/2. Beans drop 8 1/4 to 10.26 1/2, holding over half of Fridays strong run. Rice slips nearly 20 cents to 11.21 1/2. We all expect a bearish report. I think there is a fair chance if beans don't just collapse post report, tomorrows market will shake off the USDA. The big IF is how the market wants to digest beans. Bonds up less than 1/2 a point to 165.15, and dow slips small to 17,646 Lots of different results possible for tomorrow. Fund money wants upside protection, I want to cover the down.
Corn and wheat both take a hit pre-report. Corn off 8 1/2 to 3.69, and wheat off 7 1/4 to 4.56 1/2. Beans drop 8 1/4 to 10.26 1/2, holding over half of Fridays strong run. Rice slips nearly 20 cents to 11.21 1/2. We all expect a bearish report. I think there is a fair chance if beans don't just collapse post report, tomorrows market will shake off the USDA. The big IF is how the market wants to digest beans. Bonds up less than 1/2 a point to 165.15, and dow slips small to 17,646 Lots of different results possible for tomorrow. Fund money wants upside protection, I want to cover the down.
5/6
Corn bounced almost 4 to 3.77 1/2, and wheat gained 1/2 to 4.63 3/4. Beans got all Thursday back and more, to 10.34 3/4. So much for the charts causing a collapse for today. Rice up 3 1/2 to 11.41. Dow pops about 100 to 17,671, and dow basically chops to close out the week at 165.01 ., Sunday night session had rice open off as much as 65, while down only 26 now. Other grains are firm for now. I still smell the rat. To my clients, reread my private comments and be prepared for a rocking Tuesday. I will be on the floor tomorrow, but will be accessible by text or email at all times.
Corn bounced almost 4 to 3.77 1/2, and wheat gained 1/2 to 4.63 3/4. Beans got all Thursday back and more, to 10.34 3/4. So much for the charts causing a collapse for today. Rice up 3 1/2 to 11.41. Dow pops about 100 to 17,671, and dow basically chops to close out the week at 165.01 ., Sunday night session had rice open off as much as 65, while down only 26 now. Other grains are firm for now. I still smell the rat. To my clients, reread my private comments and be prepared for a rocking Tuesday. I will be on the floor tomorrow, but will be accessible by text or email at all times.
5/5
Corn leaked another 3 cents to 3.73 3/4, and wheat dropped 8 to 4.63 1/4. Beans finally set back, off nearly 22 to 10.12 1/4. Rice gave up 7 to 11.37 1/2. This will be the first week on a new monthly, so it will be interesting to see the settle, when the real money asserts itself. We have a report on Tuesday, which is broadly expected to be bearish, and good planting weather to play catchup in the fields. Why do I smell a rat? This is a no brainer sell, charts going to collapse scenario, right? But so far, other than a solid hit to wheat, we more seem to be catching our collective breath. Something isn't right, I just cant put my finger on it yet. Even when I'm wrong, I'm usually comfortable with my decision process. Not yesterday. Not today. There is something different in the air. Dow pretty much a non event at 17,574, and bonds found another point to 165.13. Last run to the top of the yo-yo got 166.04. Sorry for the late post. Yesterday was a long one.
Corn leaked another 3 cents to 3.73 3/4, and wheat dropped 8 to 4.63 1/4. Beans finally set back, off nearly 22 to 10.12 1/4. Rice gave up 7 to 11.37 1/2. This will be the first week on a new monthly, so it will be interesting to see the settle, when the real money asserts itself. We have a report on Tuesday, which is broadly expected to be bearish, and good planting weather to play catchup in the fields. Why do I smell a rat? This is a no brainer sell, charts going to collapse scenario, right? But so far, other than a solid hit to wheat, we more seem to be catching our collective breath. Something isn't right, I just cant put my finger on it yet. Even when I'm wrong, I'm usually comfortable with my decision process. Not yesterday. Not today. There is something different in the air. Dow pretty much a non event at 17,574, and bonds found another point to 165.13. Last run to the top of the yo-yo got 166.04. Sorry for the late post. Yesterday was a long one.
5/4
Corn leaked 3 today to 3.76 3/4, and wheat gained 1/2 to 4.71 1/4. Both could have been much worse, but beans held in there, closing up 4 to 10.34. Rice closed unchanged after being up most of the day, with solid buying again. Bonds rallied about 1/2 a point, while dow broke about 100. Not sure how much tighter they want to wind the yo-yo string, but tomorrow early should tell. Probably not wise to fade an early rally in the dow or slippage in the bonds.
Corn leaked 3 today to 3.76 3/4, and wheat gained 1/2 to 4.71 1/4. Both could have been much worse, but beans held in there, closing up 4 to 10.34. Rice closed unchanged after being up most of the day, with solid buying again. Bonds rallied about 1/2 a point, while dow broke about 100. Not sure how much tighter they want to wind the yo-yo string, but tomorrow early should tell. Probably not wise to fade an early rally in the dow or slippage in the bonds.
5/3
Grains sputtered today, except for rice. Rice up a dime on more solid buying, to 11.44 1/2. Just like beans when they seemed too high, I think you need to respect this buyer in the same regards as the bean buyer for the last few weeks. We are clearly up against some new crop pricing, but that happened with the beans as well. Volume is a bigger difference here vs. beans, so you make the call. Corn lost 12 to 3.79 3/4, and wheat lost 17 to 4.70 3/4. Beans bounced from their lows to close down 13 3/4 at 10.30, erasing yesterdays gains. Bond yo-yo back in style, up 1.21 to 163.27, and the dow off over 120 to 17,673. Dow broke hard early, rallied strongly after 10:30, but leaked late.
Grains sputtered today, except for rice. Rice up a dime on more solid buying, to 11.44 1/2. Just like beans when they seemed too high, I think you need to respect this buyer in the same regards as the bean buyer for the last few weeks. We are clearly up against some new crop pricing, but that happened with the beans as well. Volume is a bigger difference here vs. beans, so you make the call. Corn lost 12 to 3.79 3/4, and wheat lost 17 to 4.70 3/4. Beans bounced from their lows to close down 13 3/4 at 10.30, erasing yesterdays gains. Bond yo-yo back in style, up 1.21 to 163.27, and the dow off over 120 to 17,673. Dow broke hard early, rallied strongly after 10:30, but leaked late.
5/02
July corn rallied back to unchanged, 3.91 3/4, and wheat got nearly back as well, off 3/4 to 4.87 3/4. Beans popped 14 to 10.43 3/4, and rice gained another 22 cents to 11.33 1/2. Bonds dropped a point to 162.06, and dow popped about 100 to 17,799.
July corn rallied back to unchanged, 3.91 3/4, and wheat got nearly back as well, off 3/4 to 4.87 3/4. Beans popped 14 to 10.43 3/4, and rice gained another 22 cents to 11.33 1/2. Bonds dropped a point to 162.06, and dow popped about 100 to 17,799.
4/29
Totally dead day, followed by a quiet weekend, with rice up another 18 Sunday night, but nothing else to report. Corn 3.91 3/4, wheat gained 3 to 4.88 1/2. Beans chip up a couple to 10.29 3/4, and rice gains 11 to 11.11 1/2. Dow slipped a little to 17,693, and bonds crept up to 163.10. Must say, I was expecting more.
Totally dead day, followed by a quiet weekend, with rice up another 18 Sunday night, but nothing else to report. Corn 3.91 3/4, wheat gained 3 to 4.88 1/2. Beans chip up a couple to 10.29 3/4, and rice gains 11 to 11.11 1/2. Dow slipped a little to 17,693, and bonds crept up to 163.10. Must say, I was expecting more.
4/28
Markets checked up today, wondering about deliveries, month end, a new month Monday, Argy rain, Brazil heat, where is Uruguay, and what is going on in its verdant interior, North Korea where they got no rice and the tree bark is scared, etc. etc.. Corn closed up 6 1/2 to 3.91 1/4, and there was a delivery story. Wheat closed up 2 to 4.85 1/2, and there is a delivery story or two. Beans closed off a penny to 10.27 1/2, and another delivery story. Rice off 9 1/2 to 11.00 1/2, and, surprise, another delivery story. These free and totally current reports the exchange puts out will tell you a little about every grain and what's in the undertow, if you take a few minutes to dig into them. Ever wonder, in this computer age, where a credit card purchase is logged against your account before you can sign your name, why some reports, like commitments of traders, comes out after enough time has passed to make it a game of tea leaves. Bonds were a non event, settling 162.24, but the yo-yo knows which way it has to move. Dow cracked 202 to 17,761, not a big event on its own, but a small trembler in Japan can cause a big wave in New York. Tsunamis take a while to travel.
Markets checked up today, wondering about deliveries, month end, a new month Monday, Argy rain, Brazil heat, where is Uruguay, and what is going on in its verdant interior, North Korea where they got no rice and the tree bark is scared, etc. etc.. Corn closed up 6 1/2 to 3.91 1/4, and there was a delivery story. Wheat closed up 2 to 4.85 1/2, and there is a delivery story or two. Beans closed off a penny to 10.27 1/2, and another delivery story. Rice off 9 1/2 to 11.00 1/2, and, surprise, another delivery story. These free and totally current reports the exchange puts out will tell you a little about every grain and what's in the undertow, if you take a few minutes to dig into them. Ever wonder, in this computer age, where a credit card purchase is logged against your account before you can sign your name, why some reports, like commitments of traders, comes out after enough time has passed to make it a game of tea leaves. Bonds were a non event, settling 162.24, but the yo-yo knows which way it has to move. Dow cracked 202 to 17,761, not a big event on its own, but a small trembler in Japan can cause a big wave in New York. Tsunamis take a while to travel.
4/27
Grains took a little breather today. July corn off 2 1/2 to 3.84 3/4, with wheat off4 1/4 to 4.83 1/2. Beans beat unchanged by a penny plus a tic to 10.28 1/2. Rice has its standard pre delivery bear in play, off 10 to 11.10. Rolls have gotten the may down to a reasonable number to clear, although we just might have a small short who stays too long at the trough. Dow with a small bounce to 17,963, and bonds started rewinding the yo-yo string, up a point and a half to 162.22. Go back 4 days and surprise, here we are. Go back 4 more and your north of 166.
Grains took a little breather today. July corn off 2 1/2 to 3.84 3/4, with wheat off4 1/4 to 4.83 1/2. Beans beat unchanged by a penny plus a tic to 10.28 1/2. Rice has its standard pre delivery bear in play, off 10 to 11.10. Rolls have gotten the may down to a reasonable number to clear, although we just might have a small short who stays too long at the trough. Dow with a small bounce to 17,963, and bonds started rewinding the yo-yo string, up a point and a half to 162.22. Go back 4 days and surprise, here we are. Go back 4 more and your north of 166.
4/26
Bulls keep coming with more money. Going to be interesting to see how much inventory gets delivered at the end of this week, and with markets mostly carry, if it matters. July corn up 5 1/2 to3.87 1/4, and wheat pops a dime to 4.87 3/4. Beans rally 17 1/2 to 10.27 1/4. Rice closed nearly 20 off the highs, but still up 11 to 11.20. Dow was another sleeper, closing 17,919, and the bonds keep leaking, down another more than half point to 161.07. Don't be lulled asleep in the financial room, this wont last.
Bulls keep coming with more money. Going to be interesting to see how much inventory gets delivered at the end of this week, and with markets mostly carry, if it matters. July corn up 5 1/2 to3.87 1/4, and wheat pops a dime to 4.87 3/4. Beans rally 17 1/2 to 10.27 1/4. Rice closed nearly 20 off the highs, but still up 11 to 11.20. Dow was another sleeper, closing 17,919, and the bonds keep leaking, down another more than half point to 161.07. Don't be lulled asleep in the financial room, this wont last.
4/25
Turn around Monday. We will be switching to July contracts in the grains moving forward, as carry is sufficient enough that its not worth trying to squeeze out the change. Corn closed with half of Fridays losses back, and like the others, well off the highs. 3.81 3/4. Wheat settled 4.77 3/4, up the least, but still up, with people floating a few bear stories. The big spec wheat bear has still mostly been given a pass. Since the wheat contract is designed to mostly stay at carry, and is currently, any month can lead the charge. Keep that in mind when you pull the trigger to short little old wheat. Sometimes its better not to play than chase the last 5 to 8 percent. Beans 10.09 3/4, with good carry in the may- July, supposedly over cash, and also well off highs. Rice powered up, 10.83 1/2 in may and 11.09 vs July. Less than a month ago we were at 9.70 in the July contract. Lots of people thought $11 rice was a thing of the past. Now the questions have shifted from how do I get out, to how high can we go. Dow was a 100 point rally from my buying window to nothing, settling 17,902, and bonds leaked 1/2 point to 161.30. Still tugging the bottom of the string.
Turn around Monday. We will be switching to July contracts in the grains moving forward, as carry is sufficient enough that its not worth trying to squeeze out the change. Corn closed with half of Fridays losses back, and like the others, well off the highs. 3.81 3/4. Wheat settled 4.77 3/4, up the least, but still up, with people floating a few bear stories. The big spec wheat bear has still mostly been given a pass. Since the wheat contract is designed to mostly stay at carry, and is currently, any month can lead the charge. Keep that in mind when you pull the trigger to short little old wheat. Sometimes its better not to play than chase the last 5 to 8 percent. Beans 10.09 3/4, with good carry in the may- July, supposedly over cash, and also well off highs. Rice powered up, 10.83 1/2 in may and 11.09 vs July. Less than a month ago we were at 9.70 in the July contract. Lots of people thought $11 rice was a thing of the past. Now the questions have shifted from how do I get out, to how high can we go. Dow was a 100 point rally from my buying window to nothing, settling 17,902, and bonds leaked 1/2 point to 161.30. Still tugging the bottom of the string.
4/22
If you are a grain guy, Friday was ugly. Corn lost 12 3/4 to 3.71 3/4. That's the good news. We knew beans were running out of gas, or spec money, or just plain money flow, however you want to put it. May soy lost 31 3/4 to settle 9.87. And that was on a bit of a bounce. November faired better, but still down 15 to 9.83. My highly respected friend Dennis Delaughter at Vantage RM was all over that trade. Wheat took a pounding as well, down nearly 30 to 4.67. Rice lost 17 1/2 to 10.49, and the week before rice deliveries is always slippery. Noting that, we have had a lot of receipts cancelled since the March cycle, so loose inventory is much tighter. Bonds stayed basically at the bottom of the yo-yo string at 162.15, and dow gained 18 to 17,917.
If you are a grain guy, Friday was ugly. Corn lost 12 3/4 to 3.71 3/4. That's the good news. We knew beans were running out of gas, or spec money, or just plain money flow, however you want to put it. May soy lost 31 3/4 to settle 9.87. And that was on a bit of a bounce. November faired better, but still down 15 to 9.83. My highly respected friend Dennis Delaughter at Vantage RM was all over that trade. Wheat took a pounding as well, down nearly 30 to 4.67. Rice lost 17 1/2 to 10.49, and the week before rice deliveries is always slippery. Noting that, we have had a lot of receipts cancelled since the March cycle, so loose inventory is much tighter. Bonds stayed basically at the bottom of the yo-yo string at 162.15, and dow gained 18 to 17,917.
4/21
Corn gave back the dime today to 3.84 1/2, while wheat leaked not quite a dime to 4.95 3/4. Beans popped 9 to 10.18 3/4, but are off 18 tonight. Rice settled up 1 1/2 to 10.66 1/2. Dow gave up the weeks work to 17,899, and bonds gave up 23 to 162.22.
Grains feel like they have run their course for now, but I want to watch Friday first. May beans are running out of money flow, but the rest of the grains actually have a shot at a global story. Bonds felt like we hit the bottom of the string today. Is the yo-yo still in play?
Corn gave back the dime today to 3.84 1/2, while wheat leaked not quite a dime to 4.95 3/4. Beans popped 9 to 10.18 3/4, but are off 18 tonight. Rice settled up 1 1/2 to 10.66 1/2. Dow gave up the weeks work to 17,899, and bonds gave up 23 to 162.22.
Grains feel like they have run their course for now, but I want to watch Friday first. May beans are running out of money flow, but the rest of the grains actually have a shot at a global story. Bonds felt like we hit the bottom of the string today. Is the yo-yo still in play?
4/20
Corn popped a dime to 3.94 3/4 and wheat even better, up 18 to 5.04 1/4. May beans settle 10.09 3/4, up 24 1/4, but November struggled all day to get up at all. Unless you have some old crop beans left to sell, better focus your new crop hedging where that hedging is done. Dow continues its upward march, closing 18,037, and the bonds made a down move on the yo-yo string today to 163.13. Any bets on which way bonds close tomorrow?
When you get up in the morning, a few things to keep in mind for the days of the week that start with a T. Exports will have a short immediate effect but provide a good excuse for the Thursday close, and May options expire Friday. More pin risk than a weekend at a voodoo doll shop.
Corn popped a dime to 3.94 3/4 and wheat even better, up 18 to 5.04 1/4. May beans settle 10.09 3/4, up 24 1/4, but November struggled all day to get up at all. Unless you have some old crop beans left to sell, better focus your new crop hedging where that hedging is done. Dow continues its upward march, closing 18,037, and the bonds made a down move on the yo-yo string today to 163.13. Any bets on which way bonds close tomorrow?
When you get up in the morning, a few things to keep in mind for the days of the week that start with a T. Exports will have a short immediate effect but provide a good excuse for the Thursday close, and May options expire Friday. More pin risk than a weekend at a voodoo doll shop.
4/19
Sorry, about the delay to post, I was in Indiana yesterday. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 3.84 1/2, and wheat also continues its short covering rally to 4..86 1/4, up 13 1./2.. Beans are on fire, up another 31 1/4 to 9.85 1/2, with November near the $10 mark. Rice gained a dime to 10.36. Corn, rice, and wheat are up a little this morning, while beans are setting back. Dow still on its upward march to 17,961, and bonds took a day of by settlement terms to leak 10 tics to 165.02.. Don't think the yo-yo o is broke, just spinning in one spot for a second.
The spring rally has run a little farther than I expected was possible in the beans, and less so in corn. South America is showing some of its logistical and political weaknesses, and the world demands expedited service. With all the world involved in printing money at nearly zero rates and just in time supply models, its easy to become much more price inelastic than expected. India is rumored to have inventory losses that would change the world S & D numbers for wheat and rice in a meaningful way. Weather is showing up both in heat and moisture as well south of the equator, so the bull grain story is easy to spin. This is a blessing for the American farmer, its just picking the right price to lock price in. When markets like these end, they end violently.
Sorry, about the delay to post, I was in Indiana yesterday. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 3.84 1/2, and wheat also continues its short covering rally to 4..86 1/4, up 13 1./2.. Beans are on fire, up another 31 1/4 to 9.85 1/2, with November near the $10 mark. Rice gained a dime to 10.36. Corn, rice, and wheat are up a little this morning, while beans are setting back. Dow still on its upward march to 17,961, and bonds took a day of by settlement terms to leak 10 tics to 165.02.. Don't think the yo-yo o is broke, just spinning in one spot for a second.
The spring rally has run a little farther than I expected was possible in the beans, and less so in corn. South America is showing some of its logistical and political weaknesses, and the world demands expedited service. With all the world involved in printing money at nearly zero rates and just in time supply models, its easy to become much more price inelastic than expected. India is rumored to have inventory losses that would change the world S & D numbers for wheat and rice in a meaningful way. Weather is showing up both in heat and moisture as well south of the equator, so the bull grain story is easy to spin. This is a blessing for the American farmer, its just picking the right price to lock price in. When markets like these end, they end violently.
4/18
Lets start at the bottom and go up tonight. Yo-Yo.. Bonds. Yo-Yo. Bonds. Get it? Bonds close 165.12. Down about a point. Tired of paying the quant? He knows it, so don't try to beat him. Artificial intelligence is real intelligence. Latest studies say the computers don't definitively front run you at the millisecond level, but there might be evidence that is happens in slower events, like whole seconds. I don't make this stuff up, but you helped pay for the study that says it. Not sure? Go look at the data page. And that's old news. Stocks shrugged off a non starter oil deal to close 114 higher at 17,928, with cash breaking above 18,000. Ever ask someone why that spread exists? And what happens at settle? Think a guy could catch some money without paying the advisor? Corn closed 3.81, up 2 1/2 , with beans leaking a couple to 9.54 1/4. Wheat shorts felt the pain of selling something you don't own, or grow, or maybe even know what looks like, today. Up 13 to 4.72 3/4. Rice with a small loser to 1026, 5.5 down. Beans showing strength again tonight, and I don't get it, but I have to respect it. Could the dollar highs be in, and the globe gets it but the US doesn't? Or is it that the globe has accumulated so many dollars that they have to spend them because food is more important? Look, I don't know, but I do know from experience if you stand in front of a market and tell it that its wrong, you usually loose your money and your dignity. Hedges are fine, but spec is dangerous in todays world.
Lets start at the bottom and go up tonight. Yo-Yo.. Bonds. Yo-Yo. Bonds. Get it? Bonds close 165.12. Down about a point. Tired of paying the quant? He knows it, so don't try to beat him. Artificial intelligence is real intelligence. Latest studies say the computers don't definitively front run you at the millisecond level, but there might be evidence that is happens in slower events, like whole seconds. I don't make this stuff up, but you helped pay for the study that says it. Not sure? Go look at the data page. And that's old news. Stocks shrugged off a non starter oil deal to close 114 higher at 17,928, with cash breaking above 18,000. Ever ask someone why that spread exists? And what happens at settle? Think a guy could catch some money without paying the advisor? Corn closed 3.81, up 2 1/2 , with beans leaking a couple to 9.54 1/4. Wheat shorts felt the pain of selling something you don't own, or grow, or maybe even know what looks like, today. Up 13 to 4.72 3/4. Rice with a small loser to 1026, 5.5 down. Beans showing strength again tonight, and I don't get it, but I have to respect it. Could the dollar highs be in, and the globe gets it but the US doesn't? Or is it that the globe has accumulated so many dollars that they have to spend them because food is more important? Look, I don't know, but I do know from experience if you stand in front of a market and tell it that its wrong, you usually loose your money and your dignity. Hedges are fine, but spec is dangerous in todays world.
4/15
Friday went about exactly as expected, although rice and beans could have settled with more strength. Corn closed 3.78 1/2, up 4 1/2, and wheat chopped around with no real direction, settling unchanged. Beans gained 8 to 9.56. Funny money defended its long in the beans, and they better be prepared to defend with a lot more bullets this week. If you haven't hedged any new crop by now, I don't know what to tell you. Rice closed 10.31 1/2, off its highs, buy pretty well bid. Dow slipped a hair going into the weekend to 17,814, with bonds in their usual yoyo trade, up almost a point to 166.04. A churning quant program there has got to be putting up a record year at every retail suckers expense. Dow weaker tonight on weaker oil. Lets see, big oil meeting full of dictators and czars and someone in the room has an ego and doesn't want to play ball. Who would have thunk. Global rice situation is getting tighter and tighter, but so far no one has jumped. Too many countries have gone to just in time inventories for all the grains, and I believe it will be at their own expense this summer. This is setting up to be a year where a guy could market his crop two or three times.
Friday went about exactly as expected, although rice and beans could have settled with more strength. Corn closed 3.78 1/2, up 4 1/2, and wheat chopped around with no real direction, settling unchanged. Beans gained 8 to 9.56. Funny money defended its long in the beans, and they better be prepared to defend with a lot more bullets this week. If you haven't hedged any new crop by now, I don't know what to tell you. Rice closed 10.31 1/2, off its highs, buy pretty well bid. Dow slipped a hair going into the weekend to 17,814, with bonds in their usual yoyo trade, up almost a point to 166.04. A churning quant program there has got to be putting up a record year at every retail suckers expense. Dow weaker tonight on weaker oil. Lets see, big oil meeting full of dictators and czars and someone in the room has an ego and doesn't want to play ball. Who would have thunk. Global rice situation is getting tighter and tighter, but so far no one has jumped. Too many countries have gone to just in time inventories for all the grains, and I believe it will be at their own expense this summer. This is setting up to be a year where a guy could market his crop two or three times.
4/14
Corn up 1/2 to 3.74, with more shorts covering in a consolidation trade. Wheat slipping a little to 4.59 3/4, beans giving up some to 9.48, but not hurting anything technically, and that is what matters for tomorrow. Mull that over a little. New rice export sales lit up that market, settling 10.22, up 33. I'd call that a pretty good outside influence. Bear didn't want to operate for a long time today, but was around for the close to keep a lid in place. Dow up minor to 17,842, and bonds slip to 165.10. About the time a guy wants to stop reporting the financials because all they do is churn, something big happens. Mill that one over for next week as well. Remember the meat cleaver story. Tomorrow might be a day that calls for a guy to stand tall at the plate. Every plate.
Corn up 1/2 to 3.74, with more shorts covering in a consolidation trade. Wheat slipping a little to 4.59 3/4, beans giving up some to 9.48, but not hurting anything technically, and that is what matters for tomorrow. Mull that over a little. New rice export sales lit up that market, settling 10.22, up 33. I'd call that a pretty good outside influence. Bear didn't want to operate for a long time today, but was around for the close to keep a lid in place. Dow up minor to 17,842, and bonds slip to 165.10. About the time a guy wants to stop reporting the financials because all they do is churn, something big happens. Mill that one over for next week as well. Remember the meat cleaver story. Tomorrow might be a day that calls for a guy to stand tall at the plate. Every plate.
4/13
Corn up nearly 11 to 3.73 1/2, with wheat up 9 to 4.61 1/2. Beans rally nearly 20 to 9.55 3/4 on what may very well be a blow out top. Rice gains a dime to 9.89, and found some new buying sponsors. Going to be an interesting battle between one or two sellers and a world of buyers. Risk in rice is if grains fail from here. Dow gains almost 200 to 17,828, and bonds rally almost a point to 165.28. Things are going to get interesting from here on, and its time to consider several different actions in several different markets.
Corn up nearly 11 to 3.73 1/2, with wheat up 9 to 4.61 1/2. Beans rally nearly 20 to 9.55 3/4 on what may very well be a blow out top. Rice gains a dime to 9.89, and found some new buying sponsors. Going to be an interesting battle between one or two sellers and a world of buyers. Risk in rice is if grains fail from here. Dow gains almost 200 to 17,828, and bonds rally almost a point to 165.28. Things are going to get interesting from here on, and its time to consider several different actions in several different markets.
4/12
WASDE was nothing worth noting. Corn 3.62 3/4, big volume 62-64. Wheat settles 4.52 1/2, with beans continuing their rally to 9.36 1/4. Beans up another 8 tonight, and I suspect the run from there will have difficulty moving forward, unless the shorts spook in corn. Rice off to 9.78 1/2, with world stories driving the buying, and pools driving the selling. Dow gains to 17,637, and bonds slip a point to 165.01.
WASDE was nothing worth noting. Corn 3.62 3/4, big volume 62-64. Wheat settles 4.52 1/2, with beans continuing their rally to 9.36 1/4. Beans up another 8 tonight, and I suspect the run from there will have difficulty moving forward, unless the shorts spook in corn. Rice off to 9.78 1/2, with world stories driving the buying, and pools driving the selling. Dow gains to 17,637, and bonds slip a point to 165.01.
4/11
Little rain, lot-o pain. Wheat dropped 13 to 4.47 1/4, and really looking to explore new lows. Although I 'm longer term friendly wheat and rice, you have to respect how easy it was to collapse the wheat market. Corn gave up,5 1/2 to 3.56 3/4, while beans gained 11 1/2 to 9.28 1/4. Just shows how no one wants to get in front of a chart rally. Keep this in mind later in the year. Rice closed 9.84 1/2, down 10 1/2. Feels like we might be put in a pretty tight box for the next two weeks unless we get some outside influences. Dow was a bull trap, rallying hard out of the box, but fading back to nowhere, closing at 17,473. Bonds closed 166.03. Got nothing there today. Looks like no one else did either. WASDE tomorrow at 11.
Little rain, lot-o pain. Wheat dropped 13 to 4.47 1/4, and really looking to explore new lows. Although I 'm longer term friendly wheat and rice, you have to respect how easy it was to collapse the wheat market. Corn gave up,5 1/2 to 3.56 3/4, while beans gained 11 1/2 to 9.28 1/4. Just shows how no one wants to get in front of a chart rally. Keep this in mind later in the year. Rice closed 9.84 1/2, down 10 1/2. Feels like we might be put in a pretty tight box for the next two weeks unless we get some outside influences. Dow was a bull trap, rallying hard out of the box, but fading back to nowhere, closing at 17,473. Bonds closed 166.03. Got nothing there today. Looks like no one else did either. WASDE tomorrow at 11.
4/8
Corn up 3/4 to 3.62 1/4. Just holding was good enough to provide the expected lift in beans to 9.16 3/4, up 12 1/4. Wheat also gained 3 1/4 to 4.60 1/4. Don't forget money flow issues next week. Rice up a dime to 9.95, on good volume and in spite of more commercial selling. Don't want to read too much into one week, but the rice chart has a lot of air to the upside. Dow up fractionally to 17,485, and bonds leak nearly a point, but still quite firm at 166.06
Corn up 3/4 to 3.62 1/4. Just holding was good enough to provide the expected lift in beans to 9.16 3/4, up 12 1/4. Wheat also gained 3 1/4 to 4.60 1/4. Don't forget money flow issues next week. Rice up a dime to 9.95, on good volume and in spite of more commercial selling. Don't want to read too much into one week, but the rice chart has a lot of air to the upside. Dow up fractionally to 17,485, and bonds leak nearly a point, but still quite firm at 166.06
4/7
Corn 3 1/2 higher again today to 3.61 1/2. Wheat slips another 6 cents to 4.57, and beans give up 3 1/2 to 9.04 1/2. I've enjoyed the corn/ bean spread trade this week, and must admit it has taken longer to get here than I expected. That said, don't see much more water under the bridge before one takes on the dominant role. Money flow, not fundamentals could very well be the driver next week. Rice rallied 10 1/2 to 9.85, on not too much volume excluding spread rolls. Two ways to read it, low volume rally meant to be faded, or low volume purchased because the buyer understands how to trade rice patiently. We know that at least one of the big short players is a very talented player. You take it from there. Dow broke over 200, closing down 170 and tired acting. bonds pop almost 2 full points to 167.00.
Corn 3 1/2 higher again today to 3.61 1/2. Wheat slips another 6 cents to 4.57, and beans give up 3 1/2 to 9.04 1/2. I've enjoyed the corn/ bean spread trade this week, and must admit it has taken longer to get here than I expected. That said, don't see much more water under the bridge before one takes on the dominant role. Money flow, not fundamentals could very well be the driver next week. Rice rallied 10 1/2 to 9.85, on not too much volume excluding spread rolls. Two ways to read it, low volume rally meant to be faded, or low volume purchased because the buyer understands how to trade rice patiently. We know that at least one of the big short players is a very talented player. You take it from there. Dow broke over 200, closing down 170 and tired acting. bonds pop almost 2 full points to 167.00.
4/6
Corn tickles slightly higher to 358, while beans found a little bid as well to 908. Wheat took it on the chin, down 11 to 4.63 Rice dropped 4 1/2 to 9.74 1/2, defended by a large iceberg buyer in July. Small as it is, another 2500 acres of new crop hedged in options. Dow snapped back 101 to17,628 and I'm going back to my laundry mat analogy for the dow and bonds. wash, flush out, rinse, repeat. Bonds off the better part of a point to 165.11. Buy a low, take some heat, sell a high, take some heat. Maybe just stay out of the kitchen until after April 15 to early may. Then walk in with a well placed meat cleaver. There is clearly action in the cash market in rice, as well as the receipts. Wasn't so long ago when the board was stupid high over cash and everyone said the contract was broken. We needed to mess it up some more to fix it. I think most would love to have those days back.
Corn tickles slightly higher to 358, while beans found a little bid as well to 908. Wheat took it on the chin, down 11 to 4.63 Rice dropped 4 1/2 to 9.74 1/2, defended by a large iceberg buyer in July. Small as it is, another 2500 acres of new crop hedged in options. Dow snapped back 101 to17,628 and I'm going back to my laundry mat analogy for the dow and bonds. wash, flush out, rinse, repeat. Bonds off the better part of a point to 165.11. Buy a low, take some heat, sell a high, take some heat. Maybe just stay out of the kitchen until after April 15 to early may. Then walk in with a well placed meat cleaver. There is clearly action in the cash market in rice, as well as the receipts. Wasn't so long ago when the board was stupid high over cash and everyone said the contract was broken. We needed to mess it up some more to fix it. I think most would love to have those days back.
4/5
Well, we got to see the corn-bean fight all day. Corn settles near highs at 3.56 3/4, while beans settle near the lows at 9.04 3/4, off 8 3/4. Thought a winner would emerge todays close, but we get to tune in tomorrow for round two. Bean bull clearly on the ropes, while corn bear had to sell a ton near the highs to stop the rally. This market loves to administer pain. I can assure you, this fight will be a TKO, and soon. No need to go to the judges cards. Wheat did the standard retest of 4.70, bouncing late again to 4.74. Rice off a penny at 9.79, doing all its volume near unchanged after an early shot down had no volume and no company. More spread rolls to both July and September. Rice bear has to be wondering who is going to help him with the next wave. I'm wondering too. If the myriad of global rice situations don't settle down soon, or if India doesn't get a timely or even early rain, I expect an epic rally. Wheat falls in there as well. Bonds up to 166.07, off bunds thinking about negative rates an central bankers the world over in love with negative rates. Dow did roll over to 17,527, down 115. New government intervention in the markets adds a new layer of risk. Not sure where new money will come from after the 15th
Well, we got to see the corn-bean fight all day. Corn settles near highs at 3.56 3/4, while beans settle near the lows at 9.04 3/4, off 8 3/4. Thought a winner would emerge todays close, but we get to tune in tomorrow for round two. Bean bull clearly on the ropes, while corn bear had to sell a ton near the highs to stop the rally. This market loves to administer pain. I can assure you, this fight will be a TKO, and soon. No need to go to the judges cards. Wheat did the standard retest of 4.70, bouncing late again to 4.74. Rice off a penny at 9.79, doing all its volume near unchanged after an early shot down had no volume and no company. More spread rolls to both July and September. Rice bear has to be wondering who is going to help him with the next wave. I'm wondering too. If the myriad of global rice situations don't settle down soon, or if India doesn't get a timely or even early rain, I expect an epic rally. Wheat falls in there as well. Bonds up to 166.07, off bunds thinking about negative rates an central bankers the world over in love with negative rates. Dow did roll over to 17,527, down 115. New government intervention in the markets adds a new layer of risk. Not sure where new money will come from after the 15th
4/4
Corn little changed closing 3.54 1/2, and wheat off a penny to 4.74 3/4. That was off a decent bounce from 4.70. Beans bumped up to highs early, but failed, closing nearly 5 lower. 9.13 1/2 Meal was nothing to write home about either. As we spoke of earlier, this wasn't a good showing for beans, and it is by far the easiest to topple. Tug of war to watch develop tomorrow, which will be the dominant one, bean bull or corn bear. Dow might have started to roll over, closing 17,642, with the bonds finishing at 164.21, up marginally. Rice up 4 1/2 to 9.80, with decent buying and more bid driven rolls. Options have gotten quiet, which means less motivation to continue the push. See yesterday.
Corn little changed closing 3.54 1/2, and wheat off a penny to 4.74 3/4. That was off a decent bounce from 4.70. Beans bumped up to highs early, but failed, closing nearly 5 lower. 9.13 1/2 Meal was nothing to write home about either. As we spoke of earlier, this wasn't a good showing for beans, and it is by far the easiest to topple. Tug of war to watch develop tomorrow, which will be the dominant one, bean bull or corn bear. Dow might have started to roll over, closing 17,642, with the bonds finishing at 164.21, up marginally. Rice up 4 1/2 to 9.80, with decent buying and more bid driven rolls. Options have gotten quiet, which means less motivation to continue the push. See yesterday.
4/3
Sunday night and nothing major to report. Corn closed 3.54, up 2 1/2 on Friday, with wheat at 4.75 3/4, couple cents gain as well. Beans settled 9.18 1/4, 7 1/2 better and rice found a bottom for now, closing 9.75 1/2, up 6 1/2. Dow continues its march to 17,706, and bonds settled 164.12. Tonight's trade has dow off minor, bonds up 21, corn slipping 3/4, wheat up a penny, beans up 2, and rice up 6. Rice bear has to be evaluating if he wants to try to get one last leg down, and more importantly, will suckers let him out if he spends the money for the push. I have the utmost respect for the bear, as he has played the market well, short, intermediate, and long term. I also believe he has to notice all the low hanging fruit is gone. Is he in the tree, or in the trap. Corn acreage number is high but the reality is we normally trade the number for a while, so expect a base to be put in here. We traded new lows by a 1/4 Friday with no one willing to pick up the baton. Don't read too much into one day, but a lot of Thursdays shorts have to be wondering why crickets were chirping on Fridays lows. Beans have almost no reason to be right here, right now, so maybe everyone will use a bean break as confirmation into the next grain leg down. What if beans don't break? What if another probe to the lows in corn and rice bring crickets again? If I'm working for you and we haven't talked in the last two days, any questions, please call. And probably sooner than later.
Sunday night and nothing major to report. Corn closed 3.54, up 2 1/2 on Friday, with wheat at 4.75 3/4, couple cents gain as well. Beans settled 9.18 1/4, 7 1/2 better and rice found a bottom for now, closing 9.75 1/2, up 6 1/2. Dow continues its march to 17,706, and bonds settled 164.12. Tonight's trade has dow off minor, bonds up 21, corn slipping 3/4, wheat up a penny, beans up 2, and rice up 6. Rice bear has to be evaluating if he wants to try to get one last leg down, and more importantly, will suckers let him out if he spends the money for the push. I have the utmost respect for the bear, as he has played the market well, short, intermediate, and long term. I also believe he has to notice all the low hanging fruit is gone. Is he in the tree, or in the trap. Corn acreage number is high but the reality is we normally trade the number for a while, so expect a base to be put in here. We traded new lows by a 1/4 Friday with no one willing to pick up the baton. Don't read too much into one day, but a lot of Thursdays shorts have to be wondering why crickets were chirping on Fridays lows. Beans have almost no reason to be right here, right now, so maybe everyone will use a bean break as confirmation into the next grain leg down. What if beans don't break? What if another probe to the lows in corn and rice bring crickets again? If I'm working for you and we haven't talked in the last two days, any questions, please call. And probably sooner than later.
4/1
Everything firmed today, confirming yesterday overshot the mark for now. Lots of details to digest and I will write a more thorough report, as well as some internal projections over the weekend. Nothing I say today that you can use tomorrow, so look for an update Sunday. Have a good weekend.
Everything firmed today, confirming yesterday overshot the mark for now. Lots of details to digest and I will write a more thorough report, as well as some internal projections over the weekend. Nothing I say today that you can use tomorrow, so look for an update Sunday. Have a good weekend.
3/31
Well, the government reports didn't disappoint. Corn took the brunt of the selling, caused by an acreage number that was under dispute before it was released and is more aggressively being decimated as we speak. 93.6. I'm not sure if that is even a popular FM channel, but I'm real sure no one really believes it will be the final count. So after corn dips below 3.50, with nearly nothing in the ground and some of the southern ground already shifting, closes 3.51 1/2. Wheat pops to 4.73 1/2, and beans settle positive as well at 9.10 3/4. Rice had the worst acreage number in long grain you can calculate, which is actually good, because it takes adding land off the table for later balances. Not really true if you take California medium into account, but for now, good enough. Big dump to under 50 and settling 9.69. Spend some time looking at all the rice information presented today, not just acreage.. Dow leaked small to 17,595, and bonds pushed the churn, rinse, repeat, cycle to 164.14. I'm thinking a coin operated laundromat operator would do better in the bond market than anyone who follows the fundamentals. Back in Iowa where I grew up, same guy ran the garbage trucks too.
Well, the government reports didn't disappoint. Corn took the brunt of the selling, caused by an acreage number that was under dispute before it was released and is more aggressively being decimated as we speak. 93.6. I'm not sure if that is even a popular FM channel, but I'm real sure no one really believes it will be the final count. So after corn dips below 3.50, with nearly nothing in the ground and some of the southern ground already shifting, closes 3.51 1/2. Wheat pops to 4.73 1/2, and beans settle positive as well at 9.10 3/4. Rice had the worst acreage number in long grain you can calculate, which is actually good, because it takes adding land off the table for later balances. Not really true if you take California medium into account, but for now, good enough. Big dump to under 50 and settling 9.69. Spend some time looking at all the rice information presented today, not just acreage.. Dow leaked small to 17,595, and bonds pushed the churn, rinse, repeat, cycle to 164.14. I'm thinking a coin operated laundromat operator would do better in the bond market than anyone who follows the fundamentals. Back in Iowa where I grew up, same guy ran the garbage trucks too.
3/30
Market, lead by wheat, down off better weather reports (rain) in the wheat belt. Everyone catching their breath before tomorrows report. Corn down 6 to 3.67, wheat off 12 3/4 to 4.64. Started ugly, stayed ugly. Beans dropped 7 to 9.09, but still in up trend for now. Rice did its standard, sell off and come back for the close. A cynical person would say a man with a big brush is painting the tape. Dow pops again to 17,622, and bonds leak back to 163.15. Forget about yesterday. This bond market is just a bigger rice market with a bigger brush, The biggest difference is how the contract is written. Limits one directional trade, but not the churn. A REMINDER. Tomorrow is exports in the AM., report at 11, and month end and quarter end at the close. You could be right, then wrong, then right, or vise versa. We get a taste of emotion, sprinkled with some fundamental data that will immediately be questioned, and then funny money to mark some quants bonus check with your hard earned "investment" dollar. If they give you good money on any of the three events, take some off the table.
Market, lead by wheat, down off better weather reports (rain) in the wheat belt. Everyone catching their breath before tomorrows report. Corn down 6 to 3.67, wheat off 12 3/4 to 4.64. Started ugly, stayed ugly. Beans dropped 7 to 9.09, but still in up trend for now. Rice did its standard, sell off and come back for the close. A cynical person would say a man with a big brush is painting the tape. Dow pops again to 17,622, and bonds leak back to 163.15. Forget about yesterday. This bond market is just a bigger rice market with a bigger brush, The biggest difference is how the contract is written. Limits one directional trade, but not the churn. A REMINDER. Tomorrow is exports in the AM., report at 11, and month end and quarter end at the close. You could be right, then wrong, then right, or vise versa. We get a taste of emotion, sprinkled with some fundamental data that will immediately be questioned, and then funny money to mark some quants bonus check with your hard earned "investment" dollar. If they give you good money on any of the three events, take some off the table.
3/29
May corn up to high close of 3.73.Wheat bounced 5 3/4 to 4.76 3/4. Beans rallied 7 to 916. I would note November beans are within a quarter of what I would call a reasonable price to be locking up some money. Actually, its good enough today for some insurance policies. Look into put verticals at the least. As stated before, our seller is unrelenting in rice, closing 10.06 1/2, down another 12 1/2. I have to wonder if we would have more exports in the books and on the books if there was more supply in the free market. Dow pops 90 to 17,538 on Yellen dovish language. I actually think its bearish language, but I'm dancing to a different tune. Bonds pop almost a full point to 164.16, so at least someone hears what I hear. Grain Report Thursday morning has this market winding up pretty tight. It better not disappoint.
May corn up to high close of 3.73.Wheat bounced 5 3/4 to 4.76 3/4. Beans rallied 7 to 916. I would note November beans are within a quarter of what I would call a reasonable price to be locking up some money. Actually, its good enough today for some insurance policies. Look into put verticals at the least. As stated before, our seller is unrelenting in rice, closing 10.06 1/2, down another 12 1/2. I have to wonder if we would have more exports in the books and on the books if there was more supply in the free market. Dow pops 90 to 17,538 on Yellen dovish language. I actually think its bearish language, but I'm dancing to a different tune. Bonds pop almost a full point to 164.16, so at least someone hears what I hear. Grain Report Thursday morning has this market winding up pretty tight. It better not disappoint.
3/28
Corn lazy at 3.70 1/2, wheat gains to 471, but closes well off highs. Beans faded a little to 909, and rice off to 10.19. Every grain is searching for balance before Thursday reports. Might think about protecting downside in beans. Rice acts like seller knows report is bearish. Dow closes 17,448, and bonds up to 163.17.
Corn lazy at 3.70 1/2, wheat gains to 471, but closes well off highs. Beans faded a little to 909, and rice off to 10.19. Every grain is searching for balance before Thursday reports. Might think about protecting downside in beans. Rice acts like seller knows report is bearish. Dow closes 17,448, and bonds up to 163.17.
3/24
Sorry, apparently 3/23 didn't publish. Will try to find out what happened. Stop hunting in rice under 10.20 failed, and we rallied back to 10.26 1/2, down 4. 50 may 10 puts bought for 16 1/2. Several players writing 15-20K checks for insurance on both sides of the market lately. Corn closed 3.70, up 1 1/2, with all the volume again concentrated in the 67-70 range. Wheat unchanged at 4.62 3/4, and beans up 5 1/4 to 9.09 3/4. April options expired today, hence 9.10. Dow up 13 to 17,439, and I would note a very large buy order imbalance reported but cleaned up easily. Bonds off 15 to 163.01. Have a great Easter.
Sorry, apparently 3/23 didn't publish. Will try to find out what happened. Stop hunting in rice under 10.20 failed, and we rallied back to 10.26 1/2, down 4. 50 may 10 puts bought for 16 1/2. Several players writing 15-20K checks for insurance on both sides of the market lately. Corn closed 3.70, up 1 1/2, with all the volume again concentrated in the 67-70 range. Wheat unchanged at 4.62 3/4, and beans up 5 1/4 to 9.09 3/4. April options expired today, hence 9.10. Dow up 13 to 17,439, and I would note a very large buy order imbalance reported but cleaned up easily. Bonds off 15 to 163.01. Have a great Easter.
3/22
Rice closed 10.40 1/2 although it spent the entire day in the hole. Closing dress up seems to be holding so far tonight, and nothing but bullish global news yet again. Corn closed 3.70 and wheat at 4.66 3/4 for small gains. Wheat closed in the middle of the range and corn near the bottom. Lots of volume in a very tight 68 to 71 range over the last several days. This is building a tradable pivot. Beans closed 9.10 1/4, thru the 200 day moving average and still a reasonable basis out there. End users are getting nervous about having enough supply before the big machines start running. Bonds still in the range at 161.29, and the dow slipped 24 to 17,504. Now for the lesson. I knew I would be out of pocket for a fair piece of last week. I've sold out most of my equity positions, other than a few core stocks that I hold on event driven pricing. Got an opinion that the dow had rallied far enough, and it was easy to trade around the short. Nothing wrong with trading from the short side, but a big problem carrying a short when not trading. Bottom line, carried a short for way too long and way too big of a loss. If I was advising you, I would admonish you for reckless trading with house money. Its not house money anymore when you remember to take it home. Or let them have it back. Just a reminder that regardless of how long you do this, take your eye off the ball and the market will bite you. As Matt use to say, that kind of money will buy a lot of power rangers.
Rice closed 10.40 1/2 although it spent the entire day in the hole. Closing dress up seems to be holding so far tonight, and nothing but bullish global news yet again. Corn closed 3.70 and wheat at 4.66 3/4 for small gains. Wheat closed in the middle of the range and corn near the bottom. Lots of volume in a very tight 68 to 71 range over the last several days. This is building a tradable pivot. Beans closed 9.10 1/4, thru the 200 day moving average and still a reasonable basis out there. End users are getting nervous about having enough supply before the big machines start running. Bonds still in the range at 161.29, and the dow slipped 24 to 17,504. Now for the lesson. I knew I would be out of pocket for a fair piece of last week. I've sold out most of my equity positions, other than a few core stocks that I hold on event driven pricing. Got an opinion that the dow had rallied far enough, and it was easy to trade around the short. Nothing wrong with trading from the short side, but a big problem carrying a short when not trading. Bottom line, carried a short for way too long and way too big of a loss. If I was advising you, I would admonish you for reckless trading with house money. Its not house money anymore when you remember to take it home. Or let them have it back. Just a reminder that regardless of how long you do this, take your eye off the ball and the market will bite you. As Matt use to say, that kind of money will buy a lot of power rangers.
3/21
May rice leaked 7 1/2 to 10.37 1/2. Don't know what will move us higher today or tomorrow, but I do expect it to happen, in spite of a persistent seller. Corn up a little to 3.69 1/2, and on the high side of my pivot, with wheat 4.66 1/2 up as well. Cold talk in Kansas was the early fuel, but I would like to see more. Beans 9.02, Continuing their strength. Not sure why, but respecting all the grains. Dow closes 17,528, and bonds weakened to 161.23. Long day today, so saving my trading lesson for tomorrow.
May rice leaked 7 1/2 to 10.37 1/2. Don't know what will move us higher today or tomorrow, but I do expect it to happen, in spite of a persistent seller. Corn up a little to 3.69 1/2, and on the high side of my pivot, with wheat 4.66 1/2 up as well. Cold talk in Kansas was the early fuel, but I would like to see more. Beans 9.02, Continuing their strength. Not sure why, but respecting all the grains. Dow closes 17,528, and bonds weakened to 161.23. Long day today, so saving my trading lesson for tomorrow.
3/18
Writing this with the markets just open Sunday night. Sorry, I've been out of pocket a few days. May rice closed Friday at 10.45, and is a few higher in Sunday night trade. Corn closed out the week at 3.67, and is off 1/2, with wheat having a bad few days to settle 4.63. Night trade has it up 4 1/2 now. Beans had a reasonable rally late in the week to 8.97 1/2, but giving up 3 right now. June bonds marched after Yellen to close the week 163.07, and the dow did even better to close a firm 17,492 Friday. We will be writing a trading lesson for tomorrow night, so try to tune in.
Writing this with the markets just open Sunday night. Sorry, I've been out of pocket a few days. May rice closed Friday at 10.45, and is a few higher in Sunday night trade. Corn closed out the week at 3.67, and is off 1/2, with wheat having a bad few days to settle 4.63. Night trade has it up 4 1/2 now. Beans had a reasonable rally late in the week to 8.97 1/2, but giving up 3 right now. June bonds marched after Yellen to close the week 163.07, and the dow did even better to close a firm 17,492 Friday. We will be writing a trading lesson for tomorrow night, so try to tune in.
3/15
May rice backed up 8 to 10.37. Lots of bullish stuff in the world, but margin clerks don't care. Corn dropped a quarter to 3.68 1/2. Over 70,000 contracts traded between 368 and 369. That's a penny battle. Wheat leaked a penny and a half to 4.77 1/4, and beans backed up to 8.92. Evening trade is a little softer. June bonds up 7 to 161.22, and the dow rallied to 17,148. Traded around it again today for a small profit, so still short dow.
May rice backed up 8 to 10.37. Lots of bullish stuff in the world, but margin clerks don't care. Corn dropped a quarter to 3.68 1/2. Over 70,000 contracts traded between 368 and 369. That's a penny battle. Wheat leaked a penny and a half to 4.77 1/4, and beans backed up to 8.92. Evening trade is a little softer. June bonds up 7 to 161.22, and the dow rallied to 17,148. Traded around it again today for a small profit, so still short dow.
3/14
May rice was in fact tired of going down yesterday. Found strength last night, and never gave up the fight. March went off with a whimper, trading 54 carry spreads. Selling pushes were rebuffed, and iceberg selling got taken out as well. Reasonable volume to close 10.45, up 12. Didn't see any options that caught my eye for protection either today. Corn closed 3.68 3/4, up 3 3/4 and up against a little chart resistance. A lesson in the corn deliveries worth noting, and I will go over that Wednesday morning. Charts will turn pretty strong on any push from here, but would not be surprised to see it catch its breath. I would not be a brave short if corn wants to march on from here. Wheat looking good up 3 to 4.78 3/4, and beans settled 8.95 3/4. June bonds closed 161.15, up 8, and the dow closed 17,128, up 37 and giving me a small amount of heat. I traded around the short at a profit today, so taking it into Yellen's test day. History says this is a bad move, so I intend to be nimble. If the computers want to churn the grains, be cautious of a Monday Tuesday trade.
May rice was in fact tired of going down yesterday. Found strength last night, and never gave up the fight. March went off with a whimper, trading 54 carry spreads. Selling pushes were rebuffed, and iceberg selling got taken out as well. Reasonable volume to close 10.45, up 12. Didn't see any options that caught my eye for protection either today. Corn closed 3.68 3/4, up 3 3/4 and up against a little chart resistance. A lesson in the corn deliveries worth noting, and I will go over that Wednesday morning. Charts will turn pretty strong on any push from here, but would not be surprised to see it catch its breath. I would not be a brave short if corn wants to march on from here. Wheat looking good up 3 to 4.78 3/4, and beans settled 8.95 3/4. June bonds closed 161.15, up 8, and the dow closed 17,128, up 37 and giving me a small amount of heat. I traded around the short at a profit today, so taking it into Yellen's test day. History says this is a bad move, so I intend to be nimble. If the computers want to churn the grains, be cautious of a Monday Tuesday trade.
3/11
Rice acted like its tired of going down for now, but the options trade keeps me a little on edge. Closed 10.33. May corn gained 2 1/4,to 3.65 and short open interest is still very impressive. We did have 220 new deliveries, so we shall see Monday if that slows the upward march. Wheat took a break, closing down 1 1/4 to 4.75 3/4. Beans kept up the rally flag to 8.95 3/4, up another 6 1/2. Shorts covered a bunch of beans, and with Monday noon being last delivery day and carry in the market, might be time for beans to relax. June bonds leaked a little over a point to 161.07 , and the dow marched up closing firmly at 17,091. I might be early and decide to dump quickly, but for now I sold the dow strength. and bought a little rice {full disclosure} Tomorrow will tell us if we want to add to, or just own corn.
Rice acted like its tired of going down for now, but the options trade keeps me a little on edge. Closed 10.33. May corn gained 2 1/4,to 3.65 and short open interest is still very impressive. We did have 220 new deliveries, so we shall see Monday if that slows the upward march. Wheat took a break, closing down 1 1/4 to 4.75 3/4. Beans kept up the rally flag to 8.95 3/4, up another 6 1/2. Shorts covered a bunch of beans, and with Monday noon being last delivery day and carry in the market, might be time for beans to relax. June bonds leaked a little over a point to 161.07 , and the dow marched up closing firmly at 17,091. I might be early and decide to dump quickly, but for now I sold the dow strength. and bought a little rice {full disclosure} Tomorrow will tell us if we want to add to, or just own corn.
3/10
Lets start with rice. Hammered down after solid exports, but rebounded to close 4 lower at 10.34 1/2. Lots of November 10 puts bought and financed with $11.20 calls. EDIT 11.60 calls were sold. Again I say this has a commercial taste to it, but the risk return profile puts a very low price on new crop. Lower than my peg at this time. Other grains were strong on short covering. May corn up 3 1/4 to 3.62 3/4. Beans added 3 1/2 to 8.89 3/4, and wheat put on a small show to 4.77, up 8 3/4. I am out of my wheat calls for a nice profit, but wish I would have held a piece. Nice example of letting profits run. Never be too old to learn and adjust to new market conditions. I use to live in New Market, you'd think I would know. March dow lost a few to 16,994, and June will be lead from here on, so June settled 16,900. And June Bonds lost 15 to 162.12 There is one more money management lesson to be learned in the June dow roll. Look at the two numbers, and explain why they exist. How can you profit from that knowledge. There is your daily dividend.
PS. I know we will hear from Yellen next week, and the market likes to rally in front of her, but I'm leaning towards the dow being the component they punish.
Lets start with rice. Hammered down after solid exports, but rebounded to close 4 lower at 10.34 1/2. Lots of November 10 puts bought and financed with $11.20 calls. EDIT 11.60 calls were sold. Again I say this has a commercial taste to it, but the risk return profile puts a very low price on new crop. Lower than my peg at this time. Other grains were strong on short covering. May corn up 3 1/4 to 3.62 3/4. Beans added 3 1/2 to 8.89 3/4, and wheat put on a small show to 4.77, up 8 3/4. I am out of my wheat calls for a nice profit, but wish I would have held a piece. Nice example of letting profits run. Never be too old to learn and adjust to new market conditions. I use to live in New Market, you'd think I would know. March dow lost a few to 16,994, and June will be lead from here on, so June settled 16,900. And June Bonds lost 15 to 162.12 There is one more money management lesson to be learned in the June dow roll. Look at the two numbers, and explain why they exist. How can you profit from that knowledge. There is your daily dividend.
PS. I know we will hear from Yellen next week, and the market likes to rally in front of her, but I'm leaning towards the dow being the component they punish.
3/9
WASDE was neutral to noise for all the grains, so now we see if the shorts flinch or double down. May corn settled 3.59 1/2 off a penny, wheat 4.68 1/4 , up another 3. Beans flopped around and closed 8.85 3/4, gaining 1 1/4. Rice took a continuing tumble to 10.38 1/2 loosing another 15. As I hinted at yesterday, short term might be up against more headwinds even from here. I don't think it would take too much of an export story to turn the tide, and turn it aggressively, but we need that outside story. Remember, last year we were dead in the water and still cleared the crop, so patience is called for. Bonds dipped a point on a stronger dow to 162.27, and march dow closed 17,008. Which market will they push in the next week to remind the fed there is more than one player who can pull a purse string?
WASDE was neutral to noise for all the grains, so now we see if the shorts flinch or double down. May corn settled 3.59 1/2 off a penny, wheat 4.68 1/4 , up another 3. Beans flopped around and closed 8.85 3/4, gaining 1 1/4. Rice took a continuing tumble to 10.38 1/2 loosing another 15. As I hinted at yesterday, short term might be up against more headwinds even from here. I don't think it would take too much of an export story to turn the tide, and turn it aggressively, but we need that outside story. Remember, last year we were dead in the water and still cleared the crop, so patience is called for. Bonds dipped a point on a stronger dow to 162.27, and march dow closed 17,008. Which market will they push in the next week to remind the fed there is more than one player who can pull a purse string?
3/8
Rice got hurt today, closing at 10.53 1/2, down 16 1/2. Not a good showing, and some pricing of new crop via sept and nov 12 and 13 calls. Seems like that would be commercially driven, and with the current depth of the July September spread, a bit concerning. Report tomorrow at 11 might have a different tint than I expected. The other grains settled near their respective highs after the short selling early didn't get any momentum. May corn 3.60 1/2, up 1 1/2. Wheat gained another 2 1/2 to 4.65 1/4. Beans to 8.84 1/2, up 2 3/4. March dow dropped to 16,972,and bonds did indeed pop strongly on the dow fall to 163.30. When the dow was off 100 early, bonds were up 2 and 1/2 points, or half of what I feared for the week.. I'm pretty much sidelined for now in both, but quick changes call for quick decisions. If this oil rally is done, so might be the rest of the market, with the expected flight to bonds already started.
Rice got hurt today, closing at 10.53 1/2, down 16 1/2. Not a good showing, and some pricing of new crop via sept and nov 12 and 13 calls. Seems like that would be commercially driven, and with the current depth of the July September spread, a bit concerning. Report tomorrow at 11 might have a different tint than I expected. The other grains settled near their respective highs after the short selling early didn't get any momentum. May corn 3.60 1/2, up 1 1/2. Wheat gained another 2 1/2 to 4.65 1/4. Beans to 8.84 1/2, up 2 3/4. March dow dropped to 16,972,and bonds did indeed pop strongly on the dow fall to 163.30. When the dow was off 100 early, bonds were up 2 and 1/2 points, or half of what I feared for the week.. I'm pretty much sidelined for now in both, but quick changes call for quick decisions. If this oil rally is done, so might be the rest of the market, with the expected flight to bonds already started.
3/7
May oats near highs of the day, up 6 to 1.87 3/4.The other grains settled near their lows, but still higher on the day. Corn up 3/4 to 3.59. Wheat up 2 to 4.62 3/4, with KC up the same. Beans up 3 1/4 to 8.81 3/4. Rice closed up 20 to 10.70, but traded 45 higher in the darkness of night trade on no volume. March dow closed at 17,048, and June bonds went off 162.10. Nervous grain bears breathed a sigh of relief today, but the market loves to administer pain. Wednesday should give an excuse to whichever side wants to press their case, but try not to get caught up in the noise. I do have one of those sick in the gut feelings we are about to get another 5 point bond swing, but couldn't even guess the direction. Dow craps and we rally, but short chart is rolling over.. Tread lightly in the financials.
May oats near highs of the day, up 6 to 1.87 3/4.The other grains settled near their lows, but still higher on the day. Corn up 3/4 to 3.59. Wheat up 2 to 4.62 3/4, with KC up the same. Beans up 3 1/4 to 8.81 3/4. Rice closed up 20 to 10.70, but traded 45 higher in the darkness of night trade on no volume. March dow closed at 17,048, and June bonds went off 162.10. Nervous grain bears breathed a sigh of relief today, but the market loves to administer pain. Wednesday should give an excuse to whichever side wants to press their case, but try not to get caught up in the noise. I do have one of those sick in the gut feelings we are about to get another 5 point bond swing, but couldn't even guess the direction. Dow craps and we rally, but short chart is rolling over.. Tread lightly in the financials.
3/4
Brazil political shakeup was all that was necessary to put the market bears in a bit of a tizzy. Oats had run their course, settling down 4 3/4 to 1.81 3/4. That was it for bear comforts. Wheat tried to fail, but rallied late to a penny higher at 4.60 3/4. KC was even better, as we have come to expect. Corn up 1 3/4 to 3.58 1/4, and vol was pumped several times thru out the day. Rice still acts to be setting a base, settling unchanged on low volume. Of note, the bears sold most of that low volume near the lows of the day, further diminishing their short average price. I wouldn't mind their average price, but I don't envy the liquidation job forthcoming. Beans and meal, the two abused of the grain room, found fire on Friday, with beans up 14 3/4 to 8.78 1/2. We have a weekend of noise to deal with, but I sense the bears better re-establish their position of dominance promptly, or forgo it and their equity. March dow was good for 48, to 16,967, and June bonds lost a step to 162.08. Funny how full point moves in the bonds have such little significance. I feel this too will change.
Brazil political shakeup was all that was necessary to put the market bears in a bit of a tizzy. Oats had run their course, settling down 4 3/4 to 1.81 3/4. That was it for bear comforts. Wheat tried to fail, but rallied late to a penny higher at 4.60 3/4. KC was even better, as we have come to expect. Corn up 1 3/4 to 3.58 1/4, and vol was pumped several times thru out the day. Rice still acts to be setting a base, settling unchanged on low volume. Of note, the bears sold most of that low volume near the lows of the day, further diminishing their short average price. I wouldn't mind their average price, but I don't envy the liquidation job forthcoming. Beans and meal, the two abused of the grain room, found fire on Friday, with beans up 14 3/4 to 8.78 1/2. We have a weekend of noise to deal with, but I sense the bears better re-establish their position of dominance promptly, or forgo it and their equity. March dow was good for 48, to 16,967, and June bonds lost a step to 162.08. Funny how full point moves in the bonds have such little significance. I feel this too will change.
3/3
May corn still trying to base at 3.56 1/2. Oats and wheat are having a nice bounce. Long term lesson to be learned here for those of you who are looking at trading on a regular basis. If your on my list and want an explanation, just call. Oats up 6 1/4 to 1.86 1/2, and wheat gained 9 1/2 to 4.59 3/4. KC up 11 to 4.66 as the spread keeps on marching on. Beans up 2 1/4 to 8.63 3/4. Rice settles 10.50 1/2 and acts like its setting a base as well, but I'm already early there, so stay nimble. March dow has a small pop to 16,919 and the bonds popped to 164.26. Range bound and just churning.
May corn still trying to base at 3.56 1/2. Oats and wheat are having a nice bounce. Long term lesson to be learned here for those of you who are looking at trading on a regular basis. If your on my list and want an explanation, just call. Oats up 6 1/4 to 1.86 1/2, and wheat gained 9 1/2 to 4.59 3/4. KC up 11 to 4.66 as the spread keeps on marching on. Beans up 2 1/4 to 8.63 3/4. Rice settles 10.50 1/2 and acts like its setting a base as well, but I'm already early there, so stay nimble. March dow has a small pop to 16,919 and the bonds popped to 164.26. Range bound and just churning.
3/2
March dow up a touch after being down 100 to settle 16,868, and bonds picked up a little to 164. May rice dropped hard again to 10.51 1/2. Surprised it still has that much weakness, but fighting the tape can get expensive. It is 13 higher and regaining most of todays losses tonight. Everything else seems like the bottom is being laid. Corn at 3.56 1/4, oats to 1.82 1/4, and beans 8.61 1/2, all marginally stronger. Wheat was up 4 1/4 to 4.50 1/4, and kc gained 5 1/2 to 4.55. Nothing to write home about anywhere, but with big spec shorts and all the grains at the lower end of my value range, I'm going to err on the long side from here.
March dow up a touch after being down 100 to settle 16,868, and bonds picked up a little to 164. May rice dropped hard again to 10.51 1/2. Surprised it still has that much weakness, but fighting the tape can get expensive. It is 13 higher and regaining most of todays losses tonight. Everything else seems like the bottom is being laid. Corn at 3.56 1/4, oats to 1.82 1/4, and beans 8.61 1/2, all marginally stronger. Wheat was up 4 1/4 to 4.50 1/4, and kc gained 5 1/2 to 4.55. Nothing to write home about anywhere, but with big spec shorts and all the grains at the lower end of my value range, I'm going to err on the long side from here.
3/01
March dow to 16,849. Quite a pop. glad I decided to watch today. Kept me from picking tops. Bonds dropped to 163.22 Seems like they are making room for the dow to extend its legs, but the metal taste of a trap is too firm in my mind. I think Ill just continue to lighten my equity load. May corn lost another 1 1/4 to 3.55 3/4, and that's the hero of the day. Corn will either push 15 cents lower, or just blow out the lows by nothing to get the suckers to puke. If you have carried it this long, why bother letting a computer decide your fate? Oats failed to 1.78 1/4, more than 4 off, and Chicago wheat dropped 7 1/2 to 4.46. I bought a few May calls today. I'm a trader, its just a trade. {Full Disclosure}. Soy lost another 3 to 8.58. I've opted out of the dance there this week. Rice settled 10.65. Don't know how low it will go, but thin markets going down can be thin going up. Very small long here now as well {full Disclosure}.
March dow to 16,849. Quite a pop. glad I decided to watch today. Kept me from picking tops. Bonds dropped to 163.22 Seems like they are making room for the dow to extend its legs, but the metal taste of a trap is too firm in my mind. I think Ill just continue to lighten my equity load. May corn lost another 1 1/4 to 3.55 3/4, and that's the hero of the day. Corn will either push 15 cents lower, or just blow out the lows by nothing to get the suckers to puke. If you have carried it this long, why bother letting a computer decide your fate? Oats failed to 1.78 1/4, more than 4 off, and Chicago wheat dropped 7 1/2 to 4.46. I bought a few May calls today. I'm a trader, its just a trade. {Full Disclosure}. Soy lost another 3 to 8.58. I've opted out of the dance there this week. Rice settled 10.65. Don't know how low it will go, but thin markets going down can be thin going up. Very small long here now as well {full Disclosure}.
2/29
Moving grain commentary to may as of today. Rice popped to 10.78 1/2, but no follow thru tonight. Still more stories floating around about business, but so far just noise. Corn and oats both a little weaker, at 3.57 and 1.82 3/4. Might still be trying to put in a double bottom in the corn. Wheat had some strength settling a penny higher at 4.53 1/4, but KC was again the stronger of the pair, gaining 3 1/4 to 4.57 1/2. Beans shed another 2 1/2 to 8.61. March bonds still in computer chopville at 165.28, and the march dow went off garbage at 16,497. Daily chart has been in rally mode for the last half of Feb., and today's action doesn't really violate anything, but some basic trading premises were shaken. On dull days, I like to own a lower market when Europe shuts down, and I hate selling a dull day period. Some contracts are designed to go down in dull days, some are designed to go up. Pretty unusual to put in the highs at 10:30. Might be better served from the sidelines as a voyeur for the next little while, than become the mark at the table.
Moving grain commentary to may as of today. Rice popped to 10.78 1/2, but no follow thru tonight. Still more stories floating around about business, but so far just noise. Corn and oats both a little weaker, at 3.57 and 1.82 3/4. Might still be trying to put in a double bottom in the corn. Wheat had some strength settling a penny higher at 4.53 1/4, but KC was again the stronger of the pair, gaining 3 1/4 to 4.57 1/2. Beans shed another 2 1/2 to 8.61. March bonds still in computer chopville at 165.28, and the march dow went off garbage at 16,497. Daily chart has been in rally mode for the last half of Feb., and today's action doesn't really violate anything, but some basic trading premises were shaken. On dull days, I like to own a lower market when Europe shuts down, and I hate selling a dull day period. Some contracts are designed to go down in dull days, some are designed to go up. Pretty unusual to put in the highs at 10:30. Might be better served from the sidelines as a voyeur for the next little while, than become the mark at the table.
2/26
All the grains did their month end\pre-delivery dance pretty much choreographed as expected. Outlook has come and gone pretty much as expected. Deliveries had some surprises worth noting. Keep in mind that sometimes the volume you expect for first notice gets delayed a day or until the first Wednesday. Simple math is the cause. 1000 rice came out, because that's how much didn't get an absolute free roll. Still blows my mind the lack of sophistication involved. Oats came out of savage MN, and that's a long way from Texas.. I showed #2 heavy, so maybe the noise about garbage oats was overstated. I'm sure I'll hear soon enough if that tide has turned. As rice and oats are fully current, there should be no more stories there. Bean oil had enough littered everywhere to get close enough to current for government work as well. Beans were delivered in my back yard, which is kind of basis interesting and maybe not in the way I want. No real love affair for the meal either, and that's a contract that hates carry. No corn, so that attack might be waning. Wheat had only 6 They were of the 3 vomitoxin variety, but no big masses out of Chicago. Don't go all in on one day, but its time prepare the reset button for a bit. I've been harping about Chicago-KC wheat for a while, and may spread is positive KC, but this next run will be order flow driven. Huge short open interest, big garbage deliveries that didn't materialize, and computers that like to make the most people feel the most pain could all point to a nice bounce in Chicago. Same story for Oats. Bean oil cant hold up the soy complex, so in that pond you will swim alone this next week.
RICE. For those in last weeks conversation, the insurance has definitely been renewed. That's valuable information. Don't have to act today, but don't do anything rash just because you are tired of being hit. We will be switching to may quotes in the grains moving forward, but if anything delivery or spread wise warrants discussion, Ill bring it up. More in a little bit.
BTW, bonds did their now regular paper chop, and the Dow did give you an early blow off top and fail the day. Not a long term trade, but money in the bank if you pulled the trigger.
All the grains did their month end\pre-delivery dance pretty much choreographed as expected. Outlook has come and gone pretty much as expected. Deliveries had some surprises worth noting. Keep in mind that sometimes the volume you expect for first notice gets delayed a day or until the first Wednesday. Simple math is the cause. 1000 rice came out, because that's how much didn't get an absolute free roll. Still blows my mind the lack of sophistication involved. Oats came out of savage MN, and that's a long way from Texas.. I showed #2 heavy, so maybe the noise about garbage oats was overstated. I'm sure I'll hear soon enough if that tide has turned. As rice and oats are fully current, there should be no more stories there. Bean oil had enough littered everywhere to get close enough to current for government work as well. Beans were delivered in my back yard, which is kind of basis interesting and maybe not in the way I want. No real love affair for the meal either, and that's a contract that hates carry. No corn, so that attack might be waning. Wheat had only 6 They were of the 3 vomitoxin variety, but no big masses out of Chicago. Don't go all in on one day, but its time prepare the reset button for a bit. I've been harping about Chicago-KC wheat for a while, and may spread is positive KC, but this next run will be order flow driven. Huge short open interest, big garbage deliveries that didn't materialize, and computers that like to make the most people feel the most pain could all point to a nice bounce in Chicago. Same story for Oats. Bean oil cant hold up the soy complex, so in that pond you will swim alone this next week.
RICE. For those in last weeks conversation, the insurance has definitely been renewed. That's valuable information. Don't have to act today, but don't do anything rash just because you are tired of being hit. We will be switching to may quotes in the grains moving forward, but if anything delivery or spread wise warrants discussion, Ill bring it up. More in a little bit.
BTW, bonds did their now regular paper chop, and the Dow did give you an early blow off top and fail the day. Not a long term trade, but money in the bank if you pulled the trigger.
2/25
March dow at 16, 672, and hoping for a blow off top tomorrow early. Bonds in the mid 167s. Pretty good tell that the market is telling the fed to stand down, and the fed has listened. Back to our falling knife. March corn down to3.55 1/2, -4 1/4. Oats lost another 7 1/2 to 1.70 1/2. Chicago wheat gained 2 1/2 to a whopping 4.45 1/4, and KC topped that by a penny and is now 4.46 1/4 , a penny premium to Chicago and no reason to stop there. Tomorrow is first positions, with notice Monday. I guess then the cat will be out of the bag about vomitoxin for wheat and slightly weathered, lite oats. If rice had slightly weathered lite rice, would AB use it to make Bud Lite? Maybe they could feed the oats to the team. March rice closed 10.43 1/2. New low for the move. Someone will have to write the check for all these excess receipts as of Monday. What then? Might note how far and how quickly we have fallen since the don't catch the knife comment. That's why you wait for the knife to hit something first. Have a great night. We are about to start a fun cycle.
March dow at 16, 672, and hoping for a blow off top tomorrow early. Bonds in the mid 167s. Pretty good tell that the market is telling the fed to stand down, and the fed has listened. Back to our falling knife. March corn down to3.55 1/2, -4 1/4. Oats lost another 7 1/2 to 1.70 1/2. Chicago wheat gained 2 1/2 to a whopping 4.45 1/4, and KC topped that by a penny and is now 4.46 1/4 , a penny premium to Chicago and no reason to stop there. Tomorrow is first positions, with notice Monday. I guess then the cat will be out of the bag about vomitoxin for wheat and slightly weathered, lite oats. If rice had slightly weathered lite rice, would AB use it to make Bud Lite? Maybe they could feed the oats to the team. March rice closed 10.43 1/2. New low for the move. Someone will have to write the check for all these excess receipts as of Monday. What then? Might note how far and how quickly we have fallen since the don't catch the knife comment. That's why you wait for the knife to hit something first. Have a great night. We are about to start a fun cycle.
2/24
March Dow near 16,500 again, and bonds 166.22. Lets catch up a day on the grains. March corn down another 2 1/4 today to 3.59 3/4. Oats just keep on with their downward march to 1.78. Wheat all the way to 4.42 3/4, and more to the point down to even to KC and probably going to a decent discount to KC when all is said and done. Beans have held up best so far, at 8.67 1/2, but that love affair has wandering eyes as we speak. Only one side knows it now, but in short order both sides will know. The CME announced that discounted receipts information for oats and wheat will be public. I guess I didn't realize it wasn't public. Keep in mind that when everyone knows it, sell the rumor, buy the fact. Maybe this helps clarify why I've been making the Chicago vs KC comparisons. Sorry I was out of pocket yesterday, but my last line of the 22nd should have been sufficient to keep you out of todays trouble. Almost forgot rice. March down to 10.66, and traded 45 on the low. Lots of options and spread activity and you need to understand what that activity means,. because if you don't, next week could be an expensive one. Might be anyway. Have a nice night.
March Dow near 16,500 again, and bonds 166.22. Lets catch up a day on the grains. March corn down another 2 1/4 today to 3.59 3/4. Oats just keep on with their downward march to 1.78. Wheat all the way to 4.42 3/4, and more to the point down to even to KC and probably going to a decent discount to KC when all is said and done. Beans have held up best so far, at 8.67 1/2, but that love affair has wandering eyes as we speak. Only one side knows it now, but in short order both sides will know. The CME announced that discounted receipts information for oats and wheat will be public. I guess I didn't realize it wasn't public. Keep in mind that when everyone knows it, sell the rumor, buy the fact. Maybe this helps clarify why I've been making the Chicago vs KC comparisons. Sorry I was out of pocket yesterday, but my last line of the 22nd should have been sufficient to keep you out of todays trouble. Almost forgot rice. March down to 10.66, and traded 45 on the low. Lots of options and spread activity and you need to understand what that activity means,. because if you don't, next week could be an expensive one. Might be anyway. Have a nice night.
2/22
March corn up 2 to 3.67 1/2. Oats giving up another 4 1/4 to 187 3/4. Wheat in Chicago and KC down 3 1/4 lockstep lower to 4.58 1/2 Chicago. Beans popped early on options covering, but settled only 2 3/4 higher and tired looking to me. Rice came out of the box soft and collapsed, doing more tech damage and closing10.70 1/2 March dow closed above 16,500 and bonds just over 166, but tonight bonds are up a point and dow is leaking, off 73 as I type. Tomorrow feels like a soft day, don't try to catch the knife.
March corn up 2 to 3.67 1/2. Oats giving up another 4 1/4 to 187 3/4. Wheat in Chicago and KC down 3 1/4 lockstep lower to 4.58 1/2 Chicago. Beans popped early on options covering, but settled only 2 3/4 higher and tired looking to me. Rice came out of the box soft and collapsed, doing more tech damage and closing10.70 1/2 March dow closed above 16,500 and bonds just over 166, but tonight bonds are up a point and dow is leaking, off 73 as I type. Tomorrow feels like a soft day, don't try to catch the knife.
2/21
March corn settled unchanged at 3.65 1/2. Oats crashed 6 cents to 192. Wheat chopped to a 4.61 3/4 close, but KC continues to gain to 4.57. March beans lost 1 1/2 to 8.78 1/4, but there were a lot of 880 puts abandoned, so watch out for early fireworks. (Thanks Luke). Rice popped to 11.02 to make sure we had some of the call insurance claimed. DOn't loose track of the fact that a lot of upside insurance is now expired. Bonds closed 166.19, and March dow 16,358. Dow is down 32 in early night trade. Lots of repositioning this week between options expiration and deliveries, so be carful for outsized moves.
March corn settled unchanged at 3.65 1/2. Oats crashed 6 cents to 192. Wheat chopped to a 4.61 3/4 close, but KC continues to gain to 4.57. March beans lost 1 1/2 to 8.78 1/4, but there were a lot of 880 puts abandoned, so watch out for early fireworks. (Thanks Luke). Rice popped to 11.02 to make sure we had some of the call insurance claimed. DOn't loose track of the fact that a lot of upside insurance is now expired. Bonds closed 166.19, and March dow 16,358. Dow is down 32 in early night trade. Lots of repositioning this week between options expiration and deliveries, so be carful for outsized moves.
2/18
As feared, grains ran out of steam today. March corn lost 1 3/4 to 3.65 1/2. Oats back under $2 to 1.98 1/2. Chicago wheat gave up 6 1/4 to 4.62 1/4. KC held up, but still is only 4.53 1/4. Beans at 8.79 3/4, down 2 3/4. March rice is 10.86,down 18. These are all just noise, so please don't try to read too much into this market. Also, tomorrow is Friday and will have options games thrown in the mix for good measure.. March dow settled 16.391, off a little and bonds firmed to 166.03.
As feared, grains ran out of steam today. March corn lost 1 3/4 to 3.65 1/2. Oats back under $2 to 1.98 1/2. Chicago wheat gave up 6 1/4 to 4.62 1/4. KC held up, but still is only 4.53 1/4. Beans at 8.79 3/4, down 2 3/4. March rice is 10.86,down 18. These are all just noise, so please don't try to read too much into this market. Also, tomorrow is Friday and will have options games thrown in the mix for good measure.. March dow settled 16.391, off a little and bonds firmed to 166.03.
2 /17
Another follow thru strength day, but might not have a lot of legs from here. March corn gained 4 1/4 to 3.67 1/4. Oats finally peaked above 2.00 by 1/2 cent. Wheat gained 4 1/4 to 4.68 1/2, and beans up a little to 8.82 1/2. Rice picked up 20 to 11.04. No real strength tonight. March dow gained almost 300 to 16,413, and bonds dropped to 164.18 Up against some resistance in the dow, and we need some more short covering in the grains to keep the train moving there. I would think price and time is freeing up some bin space.
Another follow thru strength day, but might not have a lot of legs from here. March corn gained 4 1/4 to 3.67 1/4. Oats finally peaked above 2.00 by 1/2 cent. Wheat gained 4 1/4 to 4.68 1/2, and beans up a little to 8.82 1/2. Rice picked up 20 to 11.04. No real strength tonight. March dow gained almost 300 to 16,413, and bonds dropped to 164.18 Up against some resistance in the dow, and we need some more short covering in the grains to keep the train moving there. I would think price and time is freeing up some bin space.
2/16
Up day across the grain board, but nothing to write home about. March corn settles at 3.63,with oats up 3 cents, but still below $2.00. Wheat gained 6 3/4 to 4.64 1/4. March beans rally 7 to 8.79 3/4. Rice gained 7 1/2 to 10.84. Spread roll is moving along in an orderly fashion, and there was some nearby march call trade. March dow started strong, and stayed that way, up over 200 points to 16,131, and bonds fell below 166 and stayed there as well.
Up day across the grain board, but nothing to write home about. March corn settles at 3.63,with oats up 3 cents, but still below $2.00. Wheat gained 6 3/4 to 4.64 1/4. March beans rally 7 to 8.79 3/4. Rice gained 7 1/2 to 10.84. Spread roll is moving along in an orderly fashion, and there was some nearby march call trade. March dow started strong, and stayed that way, up over 200 points to 16,131, and bonds fell below 166 and stayed there as well.
2/12
Another non event in the grains other than rice. March wheat and beans down 3/4 cent, corn slipped 1 1/2 and back under 3.60. Oats had a 4 3/4 cent bounce to 1.96 1/4. Rice slipped 25 cents to 10.76 1/2 on pretty light volume ex spreads. Funny, because there are several export stories floating around. Dow popped 300, and maybe the bonds rolled over. I was wrong on that thought a few days ago too, so careful how you place your bets. Lets talk for a minute about the third rail of the fed's dual mandate. Mandate one. Use of monetary policy to attain and maintain approximately 2% inflation. I get it. Mandate two. Maintain approximate full employment. It's a bit of a stretch to place Fed monetary policy in charge of job growth, diversity in the workplace, offshoring of Americas manufacturing jobs, and every other labor related issue that congress faces. Chalk that up to DC pass the buck syndrome. New and as yet undisclosed mandate three. Generate revenue. Don't call it a tax. Don't call it regulatory oversight Don't call it an obstruction to the total free market financial system. Just refer to this money that the federal government receives from the fed as a spread differential. To the tune of 600 BILLION so far. Don't even mention it at all. Unless one Mrs. Waters, or a Mr. Brown on another day, asks questions about the game afoot. A firm reminder of who is pulling the purse strings, and can take them away, quickly quiets those voices as well. Have a good weekend.
Another non event in the grains other than rice. March wheat and beans down 3/4 cent, corn slipped 1 1/2 and back under 3.60. Oats had a 4 3/4 cent bounce to 1.96 1/4. Rice slipped 25 cents to 10.76 1/2 on pretty light volume ex spreads. Funny, because there are several export stories floating around. Dow popped 300, and maybe the bonds rolled over. I was wrong on that thought a few days ago too, so careful how you place your bets. Lets talk for a minute about the third rail of the fed's dual mandate. Mandate one. Use of monetary policy to attain and maintain approximately 2% inflation. I get it. Mandate two. Maintain approximate full employment. It's a bit of a stretch to place Fed monetary policy in charge of job growth, diversity in the workplace, offshoring of Americas manufacturing jobs, and every other labor related issue that congress faces. Chalk that up to DC pass the buck syndrome. New and as yet undisclosed mandate three. Generate revenue. Don't call it a tax. Don't call it regulatory oversight Don't call it an obstruction to the total free market financial system. Just refer to this money that the federal government receives from the fed as a spread differential. To the tune of 600 BILLION so far. Don't even mention it at all. Unless one Mrs. Waters, or a Mr. Brown on another day, asks questions about the game afoot. A firm reminder of who is pulling the purse strings, and can take them away, quickly quiets those voices as well. Have a good weekend.
2/11
Pretty quiet day with rice giving up some gains, and a tired bean short covering for an uptick. March corn unchanged, oats gain 2 1/4 to get back overt 1.91, wheat slips 3 to 4.58 1/4 Beans pop 11 1/4 to8.73 1/2, and rice drops 11.5 cents to 11.01 1/2 on pretty meager volume less spreads. Don't forget about the options and how they can let a thin market get away from you. Dow had another 400 point mostly lower range, and even with a nice late rally, not the date you want to take home to meet the folks. Yellen's second day had some more incites to the fed, what she thinks, and what they are up against. Her conversation with Mr. Brown was informative and spun right back to, and underscored, the Waters education of yesterday. The gentleman from Indiana placed her in a bit of a precarious spot, in that his issue is a legislative one in which she and the fed have almost no bearing. Her content, as well as delivery and clear compassion for the labor exportation issue, provided a great compass for the body questioning her, if they would only choose to listen. I'm growing quite fond of our new fed chair. Sure would like to bend her ear for the benefit of the American farmer.
Pretty quiet day with rice giving up some gains, and a tired bean short covering for an uptick. March corn unchanged, oats gain 2 1/4 to get back overt 1.91, wheat slips 3 to 4.58 1/4 Beans pop 11 1/4 to8.73 1/2, and rice drops 11.5 cents to 11.01 1/2 on pretty meager volume less spreads. Don't forget about the options and how they can let a thin market get away from you. Dow had another 400 point mostly lower range, and even with a nice late rally, not the date you want to take home to meet the folks. Yellen's second day had some more incites to the fed, what she thinks, and what they are up against. Her conversation with Mr. Brown was informative and spun right back to, and underscored, the Waters education of yesterday. The gentleman from Indiana placed her in a bit of a precarious spot, in that his issue is a legislative one in which she and the fed have almost no bearing. Her content, as well as delivery and clear compassion for the labor exportation issue, provided a great compass for the body questioning her, if they would only choose to listen. I'm growing quite fond of our new fed chair. Sure would like to bend her ear for the benefit of the American farmer.
2/10
Other than rice, another dull day. March corn down 3/4 to 3.60 1/4. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 4.61 1/4, and beans off a penny to 8.62 1/4. Of note, March oats lost 6 1/2 to close below 190 at 1.89 1/4. An old floor saying about oats, always leading, never lying. Rice closed up 37 to 11.13, with big volume. However, 650 spreads traded, and good selling volume appeared near the highs. Historically, these type of rallies haven't had legs, but with 1000 march calls in play between 11 and 12 dollars, all bets are off. March dow really had no spine with Yellen speaking today, and has deteriorated more this evening to 15,766, down 100 from settle. Bonds are up another point from settle and north of 168. If you didn't take the time to listen to the fed testimony today, go try to find it. A good primer would be to listen to the discourse between Yellen and Waters. In whole, the most informative big picture testimony from a fed chief ever, I you listen to the details.
Other than rice, another dull day. March corn down 3/4 to 3.60 1/4. Wheat up 3 3/4 to 4.61 1/4, and beans off a penny to 8.62 1/4. Of note, March oats lost 6 1/2 to close below 190 at 1.89 1/4. An old floor saying about oats, always leading, never lying. Rice closed up 37 to 11.13, with big volume. However, 650 spreads traded, and good selling volume appeared near the highs. Historically, these type of rallies haven't had legs, but with 1000 march calls in play between 11 and 12 dollars, all bets are off. March dow really had no spine with Yellen speaking today, and has deteriorated more this evening to 15,766, down 100 from settle. Bonds are up another point from settle and north of 168. If you didn't take the time to listen to the fed testimony today, go try to find it. A good primer would be to listen to the discourse between Yellen and Waters. In whole, the most informative big picture testimony from a fed chief ever, I you listen to the details.
2/9
WASDE was a whole lot of nothing. March wheat 4.57 1/2 -1. Corn lost 1 1/4 to 3.61, and oats back down to 195 3/4. Beans found a small winner to settle at 8.63 1/4. Rice broke to 1076, with some decent volume. Bonds rallied over 167, but backed off. We will see if the bond top is in, or the world finds a cold and we have a flight to liquidity. Note, I did not say quality, I said liquidity. Dow futures recap today. Churn down, churn up, churn down, churn up, churn down, churn up, churn down. 300 point range and 60 points from yesterdays close. That's what hot air and machines do. Like popcorn. Don't be the popcorn. March dow sitting at 15,960 this evening.
WASDE was a whole lot of nothing. March wheat 4.57 1/2 -1. Corn lost 1 1/4 to 3.61, and oats back down to 195 3/4. Beans found a small winner to settle at 8.63 1/4. Rice broke to 1076, with some decent volume. Bonds rallied over 167, but backed off. We will see if the bond top is in, or the world finds a cold and we have a flight to liquidity. Note, I did not say quality, I said liquidity. Dow futures recap today. Churn down, churn up, churn down, churn up, churn down, churn up, churn down. 300 point range and 60 points from yesterdays close. That's what hot air and machines do. Like popcorn. Don't be the popcorn. March dow sitting at 15,960 this evening.
2/8
Leaks all over again today. No one wants in front of a government report tomorrow. Corn off 3 1/2. to 3.62 1/4 Wheat to lows again down 8 to 4.58 1/2. Soy drops another nickel to 8.62 1/2 Rice falls to 10.92 Dow was down 400 before its bounce, but rally back seems to have already lost its legs tonight. Bonds kissing record highs/ low yields. I would argue if we don't fall off the equities cliff tonight, you will have every central banker in the world jawboning the markets up tomorrow thru Thursday. Lots of air on either side of equities for the machines to chase you in and out. Look for a failed rally in bonds after they test 167.27 I bought March bond puts today {Full Disclosure}
Leaks all over again today. No one wants in front of a government report tomorrow. Corn off 3 1/2. to 3.62 1/4 Wheat to lows again down 8 to 4.58 1/2. Soy drops another nickel to 8.62 1/2 Rice falls to 10.92 Dow was down 400 before its bounce, but rally back seems to have already lost its legs tonight. Bonds kissing record highs/ low yields. I would argue if we don't fall off the equities cliff tonight, you will have every central banker in the world jawboning the markets up tomorrow thru Thursday. Lots of air on either side of equities for the machines to chase you in and out. Look for a failed rally in bonds after they test 167.27 I bought March bond puts today {Full Disclosure}
2/5
Wheat down another 6 1/2 to 4.66 1/2. Corn down 3 to 3.65 1/2. beans off 5 3/4 to 8.68 3/4 Rice popped 7 to close at 11.12 with most of the volume near the highs. .Equities off again, with some real concern building about a bigger selloff The world is looking for leadership, but the global race to the bottom marches on.
Wheat down another 6 1/2 to 4.66 1/2. Corn down 3 to 3.65 1/2. beans off 5 3/4 to 8.68 3/4 Rice popped 7 to close at 11.12 with most of the volume near the highs. .Equities off again, with some real concern building about a bigger selloff The world is looking for leadership, but the global race to the bottom marches on.
2/4
Wheat drops 7, with KC even worse, and below $4.60 Beans leak a couple more cents back below $8.75. Rice settles at 11.05. Some strength in Thai reported, and more options activity. Someone is either laying a big 3 week rice bet, or a liquidity trap. Beware!!!!! As I type, bonds have quietly crept back to the 163.10 level.
Wheat drops 7, with KC even worse, and below $4.60 Beans leak a couple more cents back below $8.75. Rice settles at 11.05. Some strength in Thai reported, and more options activity. Someone is either laying a big 3 week rice bet, or a liquidity trap. Beware!!!!! As I type, bonds have quietly crept back to the 163.10 level.
2/3
Wheat up 4 3/4, corn off 1 1/2 , and oats losing 3 3/4 back to 196 1/2. Beans bled off 9 1/2, and we have a Chinese holiday in the background.. Rice is still in the chop, nothing to write home about. Dow dumped early, then found a bid, with the dow march mini trading over 16,300 this evening.
Wheat up 4 3/4, corn off 1 1/2 , and oats losing 3 3/4 back to 196 1/2. Beans bled off 9 1/2, and we have a Chinese holiday in the background.. Rice is still in the chop, nothing to write home about. Dow dumped early, then found a bid, with the dow march mini trading over 16,300 this evening.
2/2
Nothing in wheat, corn up a penny and oats peek over $2 again. Beans up a nickel, and trying to mirror up to jan late in its delivery cycle. Pretty easy to see where commercials will pay, and farmers will sell. I'll still push to market some of your beans and corn here, because when the bin doors get a little looser, the basis will slip away. Rice had a bounce, and more options play. I believe that there will be some man made fireworks in rice before march options leave us. A smart man will have resting orders far away from todays current noise.
March 30 yr bonds are trading 163.10 as I type this. That is a high price/low yield. Very large, smart money doesn't just settle for mediocre yield without expecting some sort of tradeoff. Fear? Liquidity?
Nothing in wheat, corn up a penny and oats peek over $2 again. Beans up a nickel, and trying to mirror up to jan late in its delivery cycle. Pretty easy to see where commercials will pay, and farmers will sell. I'll still push to market some of your beans and corn here, because when the bin doors get a little looser, the basis will slip away. Rice had a bounce, and more options play. I believe that there will be some man made fireworks in rice before march options leave us. A smart man will have resting orders far away from todays current noise.
March 30 yr bonds are trading 163.10 as I type this. That is a high price/low yield. Very large, smart money doesn't just settle for mediocre yield without expecting some sort of tradeoff. Fear? Liquidity?
2/1
Corn off 3/4, oats down 3 1/2 and back under $2. Wheat loses 4, and Beans off 1 1/2. Unless you are in rice, where the bull or short cover ran out of bullets, gave up, and got beat down to $11, please ignore this "noise" trade and get back to equipment and forward planning.
Corn off 3/4, oats down 3 1/2 and back under $2. Wheat loses 4, and Beans off 1 1/2. Unless you are in rice, where the bull or short cover ran out of bullets, gave up, and got beat down to $11, please ignore this "noise" trade and get back to equipment and forward planning.
1/29
What a difference a day makes.
WH +7 CH 6 1/2 OH 1 3/4 SH +14 1/2
Everything rebounded to cover yesterdays losses. More short covering after a lack of follow thru selling from Thursday. This is money flow folks. Money taking the path of least resistance. Equities on fire, so people stepped out of the way. I still see lots of near term selling overhead.
What a difference a day makes.
WH +7 CH 6 1/2 OH 1 3/4 SH +14 1/2
Everything rebounded to cover yesterdays losses. More short covering after a lack of follow thru selling from Thursday. This is money flow folks. Money taking the path of least resistance. Equities on fire, so people stepped out of the way. I still see lots of near term selling overhead.
1/28
Global macro trumps short covers today.
Wh - 4 1/4 Ch-3 1/2 Oh -2 and back under $2 note some oat receipts canceled
Sh -15 1/4 China worries Meal drops another 5.60 If protein demand bites now, as china rotates more to SA demand, going to be a long spring.
Rice had another leg up today, but might have run into some may commercial hedging.. If the short keeps marching from here, I suspect it will be without cash in tow.. If he wants out, or turns to get long, get ready to bite the basis bullet. Have a shot of whiskey first, cause its gonna hurt.
Have you had THE TALK yet with your banker? I suspect there will be a lot of inventory available in the next 5 weeks. You sure you aren't on that list? Might have got a small taste of that today. As time ages the medicine, the pill becomes more bitter.
Global macro trumps short covers today.
Wh - 4 1/4 Ch-3 1/2 Oh -2 and back under $2 note some oat receipts canceled
Sh -15 1/4 China worries Meal drops another 5.60 If protein demand bites now, as china rotates more to SA demand, going to be a long spring.
Rice had another leg up today, but might have run into some may commercial hedging.. If the short keeps marching from here, I suspect it will be without cash in tow.. If he wants out, or turns to get long, get ready to bite the basis bullet. Have a shot of whiskey first, cause its gonna hurt.
Have you had THE TALK yet with your banker? I suspect there will be a lot of inventory available in the next 5 weeks. You sure you aren't on that list? Might have got a small taste of that today. As time ages the medicine, the pill becomes more bitter.
1/27
Another day of noise in grains. Wh -8 So much for freeze story Ch -1/4 SH +7 1/2 but still in range RRH +18 1/2 Few things to note. More and more aggressive call buyer needs some respect. Door to Cuba just got more daylight. Don't see how we can cut an already too low domestic/ residual number to make up for even more exports. Cali might see some china love sooner than expected. Now back to the shed. Metal will hit mud sooner than you think. Same as last year. 1-26
A boring day, Might have a small story developing in wheat, but your time and focus are better served preparing for next years production. Rice did see some unusual options activity, but not enough to dwell on for now. |
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