Solid corn exports to start Thursday morning and after fishing lower we close 3 1/4 higher, 441. Wheat short cover continues, 602 1/4, plus 7 3/4. I think some of the short systems tried to pressure beans, but we recovered there as well, 1162 3/4, off only 3 1/4. Rice butting against options and just running tired to me, 1908 1/2, off 11 1/2. Dow took a 700-point hit early and closed off 392 points, 38,288. Bonds off 19 more tics, 113.10. I want to catch the falling bond knife, but really don't have any more fingers to spare.
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Wednesday market nothing worth noting with Wheat up another 9 1/2 cents, 594 1/2 on short covering but not enough stories to keep fuel for the bull. Corn slips 5 1/4 to 437 3/4. Still think the 440 May strike will keep us captive within a dime thru Friday. 1166 beans off 1 1/2 and front meal is leaking spread money into discounts. 1920 rice up 1/2 but Funds seem kind of full and the May open interest is under 1000 so not much left to roll to add size. Winding down bull markets are not fun when you are last at the dance. Dow leaks 46 points from a killer big rally these last several days while bonds drop 26 tics, 113.29. Odds of FED dropping rates is being priced to nothing. I would argue until spending is put under control, they can't drop rates and still place debt.
I was worried about a Monday/Tuesday type trade, but the markets held, abet mostly stalled. My biggest concern with this week's actions so far is the declining open interest, where we are rallying on people wanting out vs players wanting in. 585 wheat was the leader, 14 3/4 better. Corn followed as it normally does, 443, plus 3 1/4. Beans up 6 1/2 as well, 1167 1/2 but meal seems to be finding resistance up here. Rice got a 23-cent bounce in thin air trade, 1919. Dow continues the recovery, 38,726, plus 258 points and bonds gain 6 tics, 114.23.
Monday trade a follow thru from Friday strength with wheat leading the way, up 20 more to 570 1/4 and corn gaining 6 1/4 to 439 3/4. Wheat and corn have some global stories to their strength. Beans pick up 10 1/2 cents, 1161. Rice needs a new player to keep the push going, 1896 1/2, off 3 1/2. Dow up 260 points and firm all day, 38,468 and bonds leak 3 tics, 114.17.
Rebound trade Friday with beans recovering all Thursday break, 1150 1/2, plus 16 1/4. Kind of interesting that there is no real carry or discount in meal spreads from May to October. Funds also sold a bunch more oil and to a lesser extend beans on this week's commitments, so they are getting far over their skis. Wheat up 13 1/2 to 550 1/2 as we seem to be pretty cheap in the big picture and Russia probably is done selling inventory at stupid low prices. Corn follows for a 6 3/4 cent gain, 433 1/2 and SA production is getting smaller, not bigger as well as a boost in EPA E15 fuel allowances. 50 cent range in rice but a dull settle to rice Friday, 19 bucks, off 1 1/2. May open interest winding down. Dow closes up 201 points, 38,208 after a beating down to 37,463. Worried weekend ahead on the Israel front. Bonds up 16 tics, 114.20.
Nothing really exciting in Export sales to give any fire to the grains Thursday morning and corn sellers pushed us below 430 and down to 426 3/4, off 3 1/2 and getting the front month spread to squeeze on perceived lack of deliveries. No bounce in wheat by the close, 536 3/4, off 1/4, but no desire to push further either. 1134 1/4 beans are off 15 1/2 and overdone to me. Rice buyer here again and 18 1/2 better day, 1901 1/2. Worried that July futures are going to drag us past May cash capacity up here, but fading funds in thin markets can be a painful endeavor. Dow looked better but faded to 38,007, plus 17 points as bonds dropped 23 tics of Wednesday pop, 114.04.
Wednesday wheat trade interestingly weak, 537, off 12 3/4. Nothing global to spur the softness and wondering if the big fund shorts are just probing to see how far they can push. Should see on Thursday. Corn only of 3/4 cent, 430 1/4 and beans bounce 4 1/2 to 1149 1/2. Rice might just have the long funds coming back for another bite at the long side, 1883, plus 46 1/2. Not a safe time to be working rice from the short side. Dow just churning, 37,990, off 56 points and bonds recover 28 tics of a long winded and grinding break, 114.27.
Financial room pretty unstable Monday with the Dow out of the box strong but faded thru the day to 37,993, off 245 points. Bonds threw away the Friday rally and lost a point and 30 tics, 114.09. Wheat struggling at 551 3/4, off 4 1/4 and corn slips 4 as well, 431 1/2. Both products soft in the soy complex and beans drop 15 3/4 to 1158 1/2. Will be interesting if we test a psychological 1150 to see what action it draws. Rice trades limit up a buck 10 better and will have expanded limits on Tuesday.
Friday trade pretty much was a sell the rumor buy the fact with a bit of a delay. Thursday the funds tried to work grains lower in waves and really didn't succeed nearly as well as it felt. Meal was a surprise to the bid side and beans went along for the ride, 1174, plus 14 3/4. Solid corn recovery from Thursday as well with a 6 3/4 cent bounce, 435 1/2. Open interest dropped 20K as some of the short-managed money probably decided they have been at the bear dance long enough. Wheat up 4 1/4 in sympathy, not sure whether that's with corn or KC but still a bump up to 556. Rice break didn't last long as the bulls showed up Friday and the bear withered away, 1723, up 36 cents. Dow took it on the chin, off 494 points, 38,238 undoubtably concerned about geopolitical risks over the weekend and bonds up 31 tics, 116.07 on a small flight to safety.
Build up for export sales and WASDE Thursday fizzled with nothing really exciting in exports and a slightly bearish bean stocks number. Beans lost 5 1/2 following weak bean oil lower, 1159 1/4. Corn off 5 1/2 as well, 428 3/4. Wheat testing some lower areas of support, 551 3/3, down 6 3/4, and the rice bear pushed us 28 lower, 1687. I don't know about you, but that day of trade felt much worse than the end numbers imply. Thats maybe a good sign moving forward. Dow needed a 250-point bounce to not look terrible, 38,732, off 25 and bonds slipped another 10 tics, 115,08.
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