Friday trade has most looking at a long weekend and wondering if the Dow would hold. 35,796, off 193 to end the day, but looked shaky earlier. Bonds lose a point and 6 tics as well and there is real concern that the Fed moves might be more aggressive, earlier. 155.11. Wheat off 5 1/4 to 741 1/2 while corn pops 8 3/4 to 596 1/4. One or the other will have to change course. Beans down 7 1/2 to 1369 3/4. Rice pops 30 cents on a stop run and bull pushing, 1455 1/2. That's with 158 new receipts registered and delivered at carry. We need to see some more rough business on the river.
Thursday starts with none too impressive exports and more confidence in rain in SA. Combined, not good fuel to keep the bull fire lit. Soy complex is weak, even with increasing OI, as someone seems to be finishing their buying program but beans drop 22 cents, 1377 1/4. Wheat off 11 to 746 3/4 and new sellers seem to be coming to the dance. Corn off 11 1/2 to 587 1/2 and looks like long liquidation to me. Rice up 1/2 to 1425 1/2 with low volume and no one wanting to push. Dow off 171 points, 35,989, about back to Mondays close, and bonds pick up 16 tics, 156.17.
WASDE was a big nothing for the most part. Corn slipped 2 to end the day 599. Wheat was bearish and futures off 12 1/2 to 757 3/4. Rice had good buying volume and market held 1425, off 1/2 cent. Beans went back to weather out of SA after a few minutes of computer churn, and closed 1399 1/4, plus 12 3/4. Quiet day in the financials with the Dow up 32 points, 36,160, and bonds up 3 tics, 156.01.
Tuesday had mostly pre report clean up with corn up 1 1/4 to 601, beans up 1 3/4 to 1386 1/2. Some talk of more wheat business and wheat up 8 1/4 cents, 770 1/4. Rice bear pushes and some concern that we could see a drop in exports tomorrow, 1425 1/2, down 32 1/2. Dow up 176 points, 36,128 in a pretty tight day, and bonds pick up 19 tics, 155.30.
Pretty ugly grain day Monday vs what I think most expected. Beans got whacked for 25 1/2 to 1384 3/4, and that was with an increase in OI, some supposed new fund reposition buying, and Argy weather expected to hit near 110 before the rains come this weekend. The whole bean complex gained open interest. Corn off 7 to 599 3/4, and wheat got a tiny bounce to 762. Rice bear looked to be willing to try to push again, 1458, minus 18 1/2. To be fair to the grain room, the Dow looked like it was going to fall into the abyss, closing down 155 but that was with more than 400 points of bounce, 35,952. Bonds gained 7 tics, 155.11. Not a good time to be trying to catch a knife anywhere to me.
A fair amount of buying across the grain floor Friday as the hot and dry weather of SA leads the headlines, and fund buying seems unlimited, and is getting closer to record territory. Beans up 23 cents, 1410 1/4, with meal $14 higher and almost 15K more open interest in the bean market, over 23K in the complex, as new buyers put in a new high in Nov beans, 1321. Corn up 3 to 606 3/4. Rice gains 5 1/2 to 1476 1/2 on a pretty low volume day. Wheat dropped to 735 early but recovered well by the end of the day, 758 1/2, up 12 1/2. Dow traded a quiet Friday, 36,107, off 16 points. Bonds dropped 26 more tics to 155.04 and below where I thought this down swing would go. Fed should do some jawboning Monday or Tuesday.
Pretty dismal export sales to start Thursday off, but hot and dry still out of SA and more fund re balance expected to keep a bid around for a few more days. Corn gets back 1 1/2 cents, 603 3/4, and rice flopped around but got 4 higher for the close, 1471. Wheat was a dog all day, again, and had to get a late push to get back to only down 14 3/4 cents, 746. Beans off 7 1/2 to 1387 1/4. Dow was down 168 points, 36,123, and bonds drop another 14 tics, 155.30.
Bean buyer came late to make sure beans were a nickel higher to close out Wednesday at 1394 3/4, but not enough new buying anywhere else. Corn gave back 7 1/4 to 602 1/4. Wheat off 9 1/4 late, 760 3/4. Rice had a goofy churn day but wound up off 2 1/2 cents, 1467. Fed is going to cut back their purchases and raise interest rates this year according to a statement, and the financial market cried as expected. Dow off 384 points, 36,291, after posting a high in the morning, and bonds lost another 14 tics as well, 156.12. Bonds better find a floor in the next few days or we are looking at trouble. They always seem to find a reason at the last minute, but one day the music will stop.
Explosive day Tuesday in the grain room as funds are adding to a big long position. Beans lead the way, 1389 3/4, plus 34 1/4, and strong oil, but beans were the leader rather than a product for the day. Corn rocked for a 20 1/4 higher move, 609 1/2. Wheat up 12 cents, 770 in an anemic trade if that's possible for a market gaining 12 cents. Rice had a wild 40 cent range and closed 6 higher, 1469 1/2. Dow up 220 to 36,675, and bonds off another point and 3 tics, 156.26. I would expect some FED jawboning pretty soon.
Fund re-balance Monday moved everything around a bit. Corn slips 4 to 589 1/4. They are already long a ton of corn. Wheat off 12 3/4 more to 758. Rice bull didn't defend and a selling system pushed us 22 lower, 1463 1/2. Not a bad price if nitrogen wasn't so high, but it is. Beans popped 16 1/4 to 1355 1/2 with meal looking up new highs, $12 higher itself. Dow got juiced for 229 points to close 36,455, but bonds dropped 2 full points and 17 tics to 157.29, an ominous way to start the year in the interest rate game. This will be a bumpy year.
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