Deliveries and end of month trade, weekend of harvest, as well as new export business all pulling Friday trade in different directions. Corn closed unchanged, 398 1/2, with most volume within a couple cents of there. Beans gained 4 3/4 to 1056 1/2 as most beans ave hit the bin up north and we should see a bunch of corn finished up over the weekend. Wheat slips 5 1/4 in a week long drift lower, 598 1/2. Dow off 163 Friday, and that's with a 400 point late bounce, 26,394. Not sure if they just set up a nice hole to probe Monday or set a spike lower floor. Should know Sunday night. Bonds off another 12 tics, 172.15.
Thursday trade in the equities was a catch your breath event as the Dow has a 650 point churn range and close up 148 points, 26,557. Bonds lost a point and 6 tics to 172.27. Scary to me. The only way long rates go down much from here is a great depression. Wednesday losses follow thru to a small amount as corn drops 3 to 398 1/2, and wheat off a nickel, 603 3/4. Beans down 5 1/2 to 1051 3/4. Rice trades a scratch, 1247 going into deliveries.
Ugly day in the Dow Wednesday as global concerns about reoccurring Wuhan virus in the EU are triggering more talk of complete lock downs in Germany and France. We have our own election day issues upon us. Dow closed off 956 points, 26,409 but surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly but still noticeable, bonds actually lost 2 tics, 174.01. Normal big breaks in the Dow bring a flight to quality, but this is more a re balance than a flight. Spill over into the grains as we approach first notice day in a market full of spec longs, beans drop 25 cents in Nov as 35,000 contracts find the exit door in one day. On a positive note, meal bounced $5 from the lows and seemed to be pricing. Wheat off 7 cents, 608 3/4, but still a solid market price. Corn got hit for 14 1/2 as well, 401 1/2. Rice is awaiting deliveries for our next direction with OI down to only 768 in Nov, but no carry in the spread. Looks like we will see 2 commercials dance. Someone is long, someone short. Same story in the beans. No carry today means cash is tighter than they care to let on. Biggly different reasons between the two crops I would stress, so should be managed accordingly. Have 1000 geese in the air here today, so the seasons they are a changing.
Tuesday trade muted but soft. Corn slipped 1 3/4 to 416. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 615 3/4, and beans dropped to 1082 1/4, off 5 1/2. Rice spread squeezed into even as Nov rallies to 1348, plus 19, but almost the entire rally is spread related. There just isn't enough dry rice out there right now. Dow tried to stay in a churn range to keep more suckers at the table, but wound up off 216 points, 27,365. Bonds gained 16 tics, 174.03. Sloppy day compared to what the settles show to me.
Weak Dow was the feature Monday as pressure all day kept any buyers patient. 608 points down at the end of the day and not really any big stories, but a good trap for the computers that got convinced we would trade a range every day. 27,581. Bonds gained a full point to 173.19. Not a flight to quality trade by any means , but at least something constructive in a bond market I have grave concerns about. Wheat was the softest grain, 620, off 12 3/4. Rice slipped 5 1/2 to 1229 as the Nov roll winds down. Stories out about the southern parts of china having significant production issues, but the northern regions producing enough to make up the difference. Problem is they grow medium and short up north and long down south. Rice people will understand that is a big issue on the demand side of long, and might help explain the unseen hand under the LG market. Corn off 1 1/2 to 417 3/4 and beans gain 4 to 1087 3/4.
Ag tried to peek lower Friday morning but buying and options expiration actions pushed us higher thru the day, Corn up 3 to 419 1/4. Beans and wheat both gain a dime, beans 1083 3/4, and wheat closes 362 3/4. Meal gains $4 as bean OI drops 47K. New bean highs trade, options expire, and OI gets reset. First few days of next week will be interesting to see how the players want to reestablish risk. Rice gets a 12 1/2 cent bounce to 1234 1/2 with spread rolls getting Nov open interest under 2000 and a drop of 250 total open. Still like to know more about whats going on privately in the cash side to fuel this strength. Dow churn trade again and closes off 79 points, 28,289, and bonds look lower but close up 8 tics, 172.19.
Pretty good export sales Thursday and corn rallied another 2 1/2 cents, 416 1/4. Beans closed 1 3/4 higher, 1073 3/4, but well off the new highs set earlier in the day by meal,, 390, and beans, 1085. Wheat set back 7 as well, 622 3/4. Rice spread roll and iceberg buyer still in play, 1222, plus 2 1/2. There has to be business out there, I just cant see it. Dow has another 400 point range and 134 higher close, 28,268. Bonds off another 24 tics, 172.12.
More corn strength Wednesday as we get a nickel more upside to 413 3/4. Meal back in the game up $7 and beans pick up 8 cents as well, 1072.Wheat takes a breather as the world readdresses needs, 629 3/4, off 2 1/4. Rice spread roll the feature again as the big long gets to move position about a dime better than expected, and some vs cash in there as well. 1219 1/4, minus 4 1/2. Dow had a churn trade again, this time for 300 points, with a 48 lower ending, 28,134. Bonds weak again, 173.03, down 13 tics more. Note the financial reposition. Once they train you to expect repetition, they change the game. Its a trap, about to get sprung. Maybe Monday.
More buying Tuesday in Ag as corn rallies 3 1/2 to 408 3/4. Wheat gains a nickel, 632, and beans up 9 3/4 cents, 1064. Beans rally with no help from meal, as it takes a day off. Rice off 21 to 1224 in big spread roll and computer selling as we approach Nov 1 deliveries. With futures below 550 a Bu., I don't see a bunch of rice receipts hitting the board. As a matter of fact, I don't see much of any deliveries as we need grain at the ports and corn and beans are shipping certs, in place for the barges. I see a potential squeeze in the front months as end users stand for physical that they cant source in the country. Dow churned for 400 points, again, and closed up 82, kind of light, again, 28,182. Only players making money are the pros, again. Bonds off a full point to 173.16 and my radar in long term rates is up huge. We almost certainly will have a major swing in bonds, and interest rates in the next 2-3 weeks.
Uneven harvest over the weekend and no one hitting yields out of the park had buyers at the table for Monday Ag trade. Corn closed 405 1/4, up 3 1/4 with a bump in OI. Beans gained 4 1/4 to1054 1/4 on the back of meal strength. Wheat looked to contract highs and settled back but still up 1 3/4 cents, 627. Rice spread roll the feature, 1245, plus 7 1/2. Dow was soft late after computer churn in a bigger range thru the day, 28100, minus 308. bonds slipped 13 tics, 174.16. Bonds cant seem to find a sponsor, and that needs to change pretty soon or the global implications aren't pretty.