First notice, end of month and exports all contributed to Thursday action. A little something for everyone in exports and deliveries are pretty orderly. Corn picked up a penny, 429 1/2 and the best showing of the grains so far this week, and also the one with the biggest fund short position. Wheat up 1 1/2 to 576 1/4. Beans off 4 1/2, unable to hold early gains, 1140 3/4. Rice off 9 to 1828 1/2 with a bit more deliveries than expected and fully current. Dow up 50 points, 39,043 and bonds gained 16 tics, 119.08.
Wednesday trade pretty decent overall with export sales and deliveries coming Thursday morning and no follow thru on Tuesday losses. Corn bounced a nickel, 428 1/2 and beans recovered 4 1/2 to 1145 1/4. Wheat did give back Tuesdays 9 1/2 cents, 574 3/4 but not more. March wheat down 15 with new deliveries expected to put some carry in the spread. Rice up a couple pennies, 1837 1/2. River still moving a bunch of rice. Dow off 23 points, 38,993 and bonds pick up 14 tics, 118.24.
Felt like I was watching a Clint Eastwood movie in the grain room Tuesday. The good, the bad, and the ugly. Wheat is establishing a base down here and closed 9 1/2 better, 584 1/4. Corn held a couple better, 423 1/2 but seemed to have no gas in the tank for as big as the fund short is. Meal was ugly as it appeared early that it had a sponsor but rolled over to new low and took the beans down 20 from the highs, 1140 3/4, minus 4 1/2. I'm going to hope the meal trade was overly influenced by delivery risk with the march contract in play and computers who saw someone flinch. Rice in runner up ugly position with a 29-cent loss, 1835 1/2, but rice has a habit of slipping going into deliveries and open interest in March is pretty clean, so I don't see much more pressure there. Bonds slip 10 tics, 118.10 and the Dow gives up 100 points, 39,016.
Monday trade very much worth pondering as we may have set the lows for this grain move and the markets firmly bounced. We will be switching to May in the grains moving forward and I see little reason for anyone to still be active in March. This roll in contracts also points out the magnitude of carry in the roll. We traded March corn down to new lows, 394 before bouncing and May corn settled 421 1/2, plus 8. Not as exaggerated in soy but may soy gained 3 1/2 cents by the close, 1145 1/4. May wheat up 5 3/4 to 574 3/4 and there is no carry in wheat. I would note that is very unusual. Lack of carry telling you a short position in wheat is quite risky down here. May rice off 29 cents, 1864 1/2. Financials pretty quiet with the Dow retracing Friday gains, 39,116, off 73 points and bonds off 15 tics, 118.19.
Another dog day in the grain room with delayed exports bringing nothing new to the game. 1133 soy was a hit for 14 3/4 while wheat was off 9 3/4 to 573 1/2. Corn faded 6 1/4 as well, 399 3/4 and brought some new shorts to the table because of options expiration that I can't imagine are very strong. Rice had a big range to end 8 better, 1860. Open interest in the front is down to 1300 so there won't be many caught in a squeeze if it develops. Will be switching to May moving forward in the grains. Dow held Thursday rally and added 66 points to close the week at 39,189. Bonds gained a full point, 119.02.
Thursday has exports delayed and the selloff continues in corn, 406, off a nickel, and beans, 1147 3/4, minus 13. When these funds melt downs occur, it's dangerous to catch the knife, but this too shall pass. Wheat unchanged again and the French crop is not nearly as good as last year. 583 1/4. Rice bumps 27 1/2 higher, 1852. In all the grains we have weekend positioning as well as options and looming first notice concerns in play. Dow rocks up 446 points, 39,123 and bonds up 11 tics, 118.02.
Wednesday trade a dog for corn and soy on a Monday/Tuesday type trade with a holiday delay mixed in. 411 corn off 7 3/4 and chasing the 410 options expirations Friday. Some think 400 is in play but I think that's more hope than reality. Beans break to the 1160 strike with an 18 1/4 cent loss to 1160 3/4. With meal a dog and crush so cheap it drags beans pretty easily to the downside. Options expiration on Fridays close could be an instigator to put some weak shorts into the markets on the lows so worth a close watch on Friday settlements for all the grains. Wheat holds Tuesday rally, 583 1/4, up 1/2. Dow up 35 points, 38,677 and bonds off 19 tics, 117.23.
After a long weekend Tuesday brought bids in beans and meal early and even with a bit of fade thru the day soy settled 6 3/4 better, 1179. Wheat put out a new low with no sponsor and ripped to 582 3/4, plus 22 1/4 on fund short liquidation. Can't find major news for this tear, really a reflection on how few sellers other than funds in an echo chamber are really out there at these prices. Corn up 2 1/4 to 418 3/4 and the worst showing of the big 3. Rice off 14 1/2 to 1817 1/2 but into bids. Spread roll quite orderly so far. Financials pretty quiet with the Dow off 55 points, 38,642 and bonds up 3 tics, 118.10.
Highlight of Friday trade going into the long weekend was a nice meal led bean rally for a dime, 1172 1/4. With commitments showing funds short 134K of soy and not being able to dress beans lower for the weekend, I liked that action. Corn leaked another 1 1/4 to 416 1/2 and wheat was off 6 1/2 to 560 1/2. No real desire for the funds to take on more short risk gives us hope that any fundamental positive change could have outsized gains attached. Rice off 31 cents, still 1832 and in no man's land for futures trade. Funds want to puke, and the river should still take it. Funds want to buy and a lot less inventory to sell them. Dow tried to hold but faded late, 38,697, off 161 but in a pretty tight range and giving back less than half of Thursday rally. Bonds leak 21 tics, 118.07.
After decent export numbers the grain room had nothing in the tank against fund selling Thursday. Corn lost 6 1/2 cents, 417 3/4. Beans off 8 1/4 to 1162 1/4. Wheat beat down 18 1/2 and ran from the $6 pivot, 576 close. Rice just steady, 1863, plus a penny. This with a strong Dow, 38,858, plus 364 points and bonds up 11 tics at the close, 118.28. That was a bit of a soft bond close.
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