End of year trade Friday went off with a whimper. Corn slips 2 3/4 to 593 1/4 and wheat did drop 9 to 770 3/4, although wheat seemed overdone and marked for year-end. Switching to march for beans and rice as we are in deliveries, 1485 1/5 rice was a 6 cent gain, again with last minute bids to dress up the close, and beans up 3/4 to 1339 1/4. Will trade SA weather Sunday night. Dow off 65 points, 36,226, and bonds picked up 18 tics, 160.14. Happy New Year, its going to be a tricky one to manage.
Thursday trade started dull but leaked with abandon thru the day. Beans off a nickel or so turned into beans down 28 3/4 on the close, 1327 3/4. Products were weaker, but not that bad. Corn off 9 1/2 to 596. Wheat tried to bounce but faded to 779 3/4, off 8. Rice bull came again, or should I say rice bear who is puking in my opinion, 1457 1/2, only 2 1/2 higher for his trouble and good volume. Dow off 90 after peaking at new highs and fades 100 points late in the day, 36,291. Not a way to build confidence in the financial room at the end of the year. Bonds gain 16 tics, 159.28.
Seemed like Wednesday trade just wanted to put the year in the books. Wheat got a small 4 1/4 cent bounce, 787 3/4. Corn gained 3/4 to 605 1/2. Beans leaked 2 3/4 to 1356 1/2, but that was on an 11 cent bounce. Rice up another 8 1/2 to 1455 as we get another big volume short liq day. Rice seems to have mostly run its course to me. Of course, if the guy wants to fire off another 1000 he can. Dow up 99 points, 36,381, and bonds drop a point and 9 tics, 159.12.
Tuesday trade mostly a giveback day in Ag, with wheat off 20 1/2 to 783 1/2. Oats drop 21, and Corn off a dime, 604 3/4. I think what we are seeing in wheat is everyone around the globe that exports had somewhat diminished supplies, so everyone held back, and now we look around and stocks might be plenty enough to get us thru. Add that farmers grow to sell, and we have too much carry in the wheat futures market due to design flaws, and combined we have a wheat market that may be running out of steam. Should have a February winter freeze like usual that will be accused of killing the crop and tight enough stocks to keep some form of a floor for now, but that's about it. Beans off 3 1/4 to 1359 1/4 but well off highs that just ran out of breath, and a market that all of the sudden seems heavy. Fund re-balance cant come soon enough. Rice up 12 1/2 more as the short with a bloody nose runs for the door and commercials that picked him off are laughing all the way to the bank. 1446 1/2. Dow up 104 to 36,282 and bonds off 3 little tics, 160.21.
Monday post Christmas brought a fund driven buying binge pretty much everywhere they thought they could push. Dow up 346 points, 36,178, while bonds gained 9 tics to 160.24 as well. Beans ripped for 30 1/2 to the upside, 1362 1/2 and corn gained 9 more, 614 3/4. Markets are end of year thin and the funny money boys need their year end bonus marks. Thursday is first intentions for the January contracts, and Friday is year end for the bonus cash. Rice up 29 as a short term bear appears to have wasted a million dollars or so in a week, 1434. Wheat surprisingly drops 10 3/4 to 804. This Iraq wheat tender better land in America after the first of the year.
Final trading day before Christmas brought bids, with corn up 3 1/4 to 605 3/4 and beans up 3 1/4 as well, 1332. Meal and oil strong again. Wheat barely gets higher, 814 3/4, plus 3/4. Rice gains 13 1/2 to 1405 with what looks like a short dated system pushing the upside. Dow up 200 points, 35,832, and bonds slip 29 tics, 160.15.
Risk on again Wednesday with Christmas shoppers buying contracts everywhere. Wheat gains 15 to 814. Corn above the buck, 4 1/4 better to 602 1/2. Meal and oil both firm and beans gain 20 3/4 cents, 1328 3/4. That price puts most all the expiring options into play that I had any concerns about. It also puts a bunch of new longs into the market above $13. Rice gains 26 as the seller doesn't defend and upcoming Jan deliveries are looking like there could be a squeeze. Seems too early in the calendar to me, but? 1391 1/2 close. Dow up another 251 to 35,632, and bonds gain 19 tics, 161.12.
Strong Dow Tuesday as risk on was the catch phrase everywhere. 35,381, plus 568 points at the end of the day, and bonds drop a point and 6 tics to 160.25. Wheat got all the sellers out of the way Monday morning, and Tuesday is good for a 21 1/4 gain, 799. Corn in tow and up 7 1/4 cents, 598 1/4. Beans follow another day of strong meal for 15 3/4 cents, 1308. Rice bear seems to be out of bullets to push lower, 1365 1/2, off 1/2, with the roll getting tighter and more vs cash. I'm hurting to see what would push rice much lower.
Monday started a shortened holiday week with the Dow getting hit for 439 points, 34,813, but that was with a 250 point bounce off the lows. Dow ran out of selling, and bonds broke instead of rallying, 161.31, off 19 tics. Wheat kind of did the same thing, rallying 20 cents off the morning lows to 2 3/4 higher on the day, 777 3/4. Beans up 7 to 1292 1/4 on the back of strong meal again, and hunting the 13-13.10-13.20 Jan expiring calls. Oats got killed for 40 to the downside, and that had to have some effect keeping corn lower, 591, off 2 1/4. Rice slipped 7 to 1366 as the seller keeps walking out the door.
Friday Dow turned soft and broke 539 points to 35,252. We know this is big range chop season, but I really didn't expect that much pressure on a Friday. Bonds up 14 tics to 162.18 and financials continue to make a prudent man question the big inflation story. Weather in SA is dryer than most would like, especially as you march south into Argentina, and although it is early for them, end of year position adjusting here and high Fert prices are holding back farmer pricing. Beans up 8 to 1285 1/4 with meal the lead, and corn follows for a couple cents, 593. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 775. and rice slips 1 1/2 to 1373. More rice receipts cancelled and I don't expect any new registrations for Jan either.