End of year settling up on Friday really didn't bring any big surprises. Markets have an up bias to end things on a positive note, with Beans up 10 1/2 to 1519 1/4. March a nickel higher and we will be switching to march in soy moving forward. Meal got pumped up to 478 spot, a number I don't believe is globally sustainable over any period of time. Jan rice up 15 1/2 to 1805 but Jan open interest is under 100 and we will move to March there as well. I feel rice is tired. Corn slipped a penny after looking higher, 678 1/2 and wheat held 18 cents of a short covering rally, 792. Dow looked below 33K but recovered to 33,285, still off 90 while bonds off 5 tics to end the year 125.11. HAPPY NEW YEAR.
First intentions day Thursday and the Dow regains Wednesday break, 33,375, up 329 points while bonds gain back 19 tics as well, 125.16. Didn't get much spillover to the grain room as corn leaked 3 1/4 to 679 1/2 and wheat hit for 11 1/2 to 774. Beans held at least, 1508 3/4, plus 2 1/4, while rice recovered 16 1/2 back up to 1789 1/2.
After what I perceived as a weak Tuesday close in soy, meal found a bid Wednesday morning and held it thru the day. Soy came along for 24 1/4 to 1506 1/2. Pretty impressive. And thin. Risk on day in most of Ag as corn popped 8 cents, 682 3/4 and wheat gained 11 to 785 1/2. Rice was off 20 1/2 to 1773 as we unwind January positions and we are past due a new bull story to feed on. Dow leaked all day and settled on the bottom, 33,046, off 370 points. Bonds off 13 tics, 124.29. Thursday is first intentions so make sure to clean up any January positions before the close.
Post Christmas trade came out of the box firm Tuesday morning with good export inspections and dry Argy weather but markets mostly couldn't hold. Beans were up 35 and closed 1482 1/4, up only 3 1/4. Meal went from firmly higher to lower on the day. Rice seller decided enough upside without some pain and rolled us over, 1793 1/2, off 8. Someone is mixing up the systems. Wheat a dime off the highs, 774 1/2, minus 1 1/2. Corn the one bright spot as we rumor both China and Japan as well as the usual Mexico business. 674 3/4, plus 8 1/2. Standard Dow churn, 33,416, plus 41 points while bonds drop from near the top of the Keltner band to the bottom and trending down, 125.10. Off a point and 27 tics.
Last day of trade before Christmas has cold weather and fresh sales for holiday fuel. Wheat gains 13 3/4 to 776 as we kill the crop for the first time this year, probably not the last, because in under a week we should see 40's again. Mexico bought 150 corn on in a flash sale, corn gains to 666 1/4, plus 5 3/4, and china bought another cargo of beans, probably nearing the last of this crop year Jan options D Day for beans and rice. Soy made it to 1479, up 11 1/4. Jan 1480 calls died worthless. 1801 1/2 Jan rice good for a 6 cent gain. 900 Jan puts erased for ever and for free. $18 strike no big deal for rice. Dow churned down a couple hundred but closed up 167 points, 33,375, while bonds give up a point and 9 tics, 127.05. Have a Merry Christmas and a blessed New Year.
Thursday exports brought nothing overwhelming to the market and soy leaked 13 1/4 cents, 1467 3/4. Corn off 1 3/4 to 660 1/2 and wheat dropped 5 1/2 to 762 1/4. Surprised at the wheat with the cold hitting. Rice gained another 11 1/2 to 1795 1/2 and above the 1780 puts. Dow off pretty hard but recovered 450 points to be "only" 361 lower at the close, 33, 208. Different day, same churn story. Bonds take the day off, 128.14, plus 9.
Wednesday firm with the Dow getting pumped for 516 points, 33,569. Bonds dead, 128.05, plus2. Winter cold fueling a 17 1/4 cent wheat rally, 767 3/4. Corn popped 10 1/4 as well, 662 1/4. Beans languished with a 2 1/2 cent gain, 1481. Awful hard to still own any beans up here with what is now known to be a big Brazil crop about to go thru the combine. The world doesn't care what it cost you to produce. Rice up another 6 to 1784 and we need a new bull to keep this one going any more.
Rice shorts continue to get taken to the woodshed Tuesday as we rally another 66 cents, 1778. Standard Monday/Tuesday bounce in soy, 1478 1/2, plus 17 3/4. Wheat stable and picks up a couple to 750 1/2. Corn has a 4 3/4 cent bounce as well, 652. Dow looked lower but recovered , 33053, plus 80 points. Bonds off a point and 22 tics, 128.03.
Monday a bit soft in most of the grain room as we add moisture to Argentina and the vessels are still moving in the Ukraine corridor. Wheat off a nickel, 748 1/2 while corn slips 5 3/4 to 647 1/4. Beans down 19 1/4 to 1460 3/4 and pretty much everyone expects Brazil bean output to be north of 150 million tons now. Rice shorts get caught flat footed with a bullish commitments report and talk of a new Iraq MOU. 1712 close, up 43 1/2 and assuming this rally holds, which I expect, all those Jan puts become worthless. Financial room still setting back with bonds off a point and 12 tics, 129.25, and the Dow down another 155 points, 32,973.
Dow continued the leak Friday, 33,128, off 308 points and that's with a 250 point bonce from the lows. 12/13 morning highs to Fridays close is a 2000 point drop. More notice that silly season we call the holidays can cost a bunch of money quickly if you get on the wrong side. I would wager stops put in both sides of the slaughter. Bonds gave back Thursdays 29 tic gain to the cent, 131.05. Corn off 1/2 cent, 653 in a dead day while wheat slipped 3 3/4 to 753 1/2. With the action going on in Ukraine right now, its clear that computers with no attachment to emotion calling the shots. Meal up 7 bucks helps soy gain 6 1/2 to 1480. Rice picks up a nickel to 1668 1/2 and a slug more open interest as the shorts try and fail to defend their new positions. Could get ugly for rice shorts soon.