Will be switching to may futures for Friday quotes and moving forward, as march is in deliveries. May corn up 1/4 cent, 368 1/4, with the march gaining 2. Rice has some pretty big swings but closes 1360, up 3. March up a dime and 83 new deliveries out of harvest and southern, stopped by a co-op by my best guess. Only 102 march left so unless someone wants to come back to the trough for more new inventory, should clean up quickly. Wouldn't be surprised at some dressing up early in the week to pull a cash buyer to the table. Wheat off 2 1/2 to 525 and below levels of support. Beans off 2 1/4 to 892 3/4 with firm meal supporting the complex. Funds are short a bunch of meal and Argy is having troubles with taxes. Never trust a socialist country to dependably export to feed the world. Can you imagine how quickly SA will shut down if they get Corona virus at the ports? Dow off 188 points, settling 25,364, way off the low of 24,675. Bonds are in full on flight to quality, 171.12, up 2 points and 28 tics.
Wednesday is another day of China Flu, with first notice day liquidation thrown into the mix. Corn off 2 cents, 370 1/2 with over 50K of liquidation. Beans up 2 to 881 with 20K of liquidation. Rice up 6 but that is from the spread squeezing, with only 800 march left to find homes. 1342 1/2. No more playing in the march. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 540 1/4. Dow only down 203 to 26,914, but wait, there's more to come. Bonds up 13 tics to 168.03.
Market is cleaning up options settles and getting ready for march deliveries. Corn up 1/4 to 372 1/2. Rice off 1/2 to 1336 1/2 with the roll almost done, down to 1100 march. Beans bounce 4 3/4 to 879 and don't kid yourself, china knows American beans don't spend too much time below $9 and they have 40 billion to spend. Wheat twice below big time support and twice bounces, 539, up 2 3/4. Dow down another whopping 851 to 27,117, and bonds up 31 tics, 167.22.
The weekend gave bears plenty of fuel as the corona virus spread, along with the fear that goes with illness. Dow smacked from the open and closing off 1013 points, 27,968. I must say that the trade thru the day was organized and computer orchestrated. Gives me confidence and pause at the same time. Bonds up a point and 24 tics, 166.23. Corn off 4 3/4 to 372 1/4, following wheat down 14 3/4, 536 1/4. Think about how wide that spread still is. Beans off 16 1/4 to 874 1/4. I don't expect much follow thru. Rice down only 1 1/2 as the funds longs aren't getting much pressure and the roll is mostly done. 1337. May is now the high risk month.
Friday options expiration trade has corn off 1 1/2 to 377 on more talk that next years crop will give us too much carry over. Rice off a nickel, 1338 1/2 with the 1340 puts apparently wanting the short position. Beans tried the 9 dollar pin early but faded a dime to 890 1/2, minus 2 1/4. Wheat 550 held as well, 551, down 9. Please note again how important the options strikes were to the days trade and settle. It happens almost every expiration. Dow had to explore the lower end of Thursdays trade, and that's so predictable its almost not worth writing about anymore, 28,981, off 190. Bonds bounce a point and a tic to 164.31, not so much flight to quality, but an admission that we will have lower rates longer, like almost as long as the EU stays accommodating , which could be a very long time.
Thursday Ag market had no real feature other than just back and fill. Corn off a couple to 378 1/2 in a boring trade. Did feel like a bear was trying to force the issue late. That hasn't usually worked. Wheat gives back 5 1/4 to 560 and same story in beans, 892 3/4, minus 4 1/2. Roll still the story in rice as we are down to 3400 march now, 1343 1/2, plus a penny. Looks like someone is buying may vertical calls and paying for it with puts. Dow was 400 lower, corona virus the excuse, but really computers working at expanding the range. Bigger range, higher vol for them to sell to retail. 29,171, off 155. Bonds have the requisite bounce for 31 tics, 163.30. There isn't a central bank on the globe that can or will raise interest rates, and a dollar this strong ties the feds hands as well.
Wheat tried to give back Tuesdays gains, but market came roaring back to only off a penny and a half, 565 1/4. Soft early beans found a bid as well, 897 1/4, plus a nickel. Rice rolls continue, 1342 1/2, off 1/2 cent. Corn slips 2 1/2 in a wandering trade, 380 1/2. Exports delayed until Friday. Dow up 126 points, 29,337, and bonds slip 6 tics to 162.31.
Nothing big over the weekend, so grains had the expected bid. Wheat was king of the day, up 24 to 566 3/4 and funds are stretching their wings a bit here. It looked like a decent sell a dime higher, and nothing really fundamental changed. Respect the fund long when he decides to play is the lesson here, and you will hear me repeat it again many times this year I suspect in corn and beans. Rice up a dime, 1343, as the cash market stays firm over the weekend trying to source Arkansas bin rice. The co-ops severely underestimated the east side milling draw down. Adjustments are being made. I suspect there will be some interesting side conversations at the next several conferences, trying to put humpty dumpty back together again. Corn follows wheat lead for 5 1/4 to 383. Beans off 1 1/2 to 892 1/4 in a nothing day. Dow soft all day and closes off 184 points, 29,211, while bonds rally 24 tics to 163.05. Guessing the easy money longs in bonds has been made, barring a Dow meltdown.
I think the uncertainty of the Corona virus has everyone wanting the sidelines if its cheap to get there. Dow in an up and down day Friday but off 37 points to close 29,395. Bonds gained 17 tics to 162.13. Corn off 1 3/4 to 377 3/4 with the spread tightening a bit. Rice roll the feature again with over 5000 still to go, but a 2 1/2 cent gain on the day, 1333. Beans gave back 2 1/2 to 893 3/4 but up a dime on the week. Wheat churn continues, 542 3/4, off 1 1/2. If its a quiet, uneventful weekend, I would expect firmer grain markets next week. That's a mighty big if.
Solid export sales helped beans hold 3 3/4 higher, 896 1/4. Wheat off 3 1/4 in the churn it has become, 544 1/4. Corn followed suit, dropping 3 1/2 to 379 1/2. Rice went thru the 49 day moving average, but recovered back to 1330 1/2, minus 8 1/2. Big spread roll volume. Funds will have to defend their longs in rice today. Dow backed off 91 points, 29,432, and bonds gained 6 tics, 161.28.