Monday trade ugly in the grain room. Beans took it the worst, 1370 1/2, off 62 1/2 in the Sept and Nov dropped 50 as well. Wheat war premium getting erased quickly, 665 3/4, minus 38 1/2. Corn at 504 is a 17 cent looser. Rice down 15 1/2 to 1547. Financial room stable with the Dow gaining 103 points, 35,695 and bonds up 6 tics, 124.14. These funds are going to be sloppy in our back yard for a while it would appear.
Financials tried to show some strength Friday with the Dow recovering 161 points to 35,592 and bonds picking up 12 tics, 124.08. No love in the grain room though as Sept beans give up 20 1/2 cents, 1433 and Nov retreats another 15 to 1382. Sept corn off 12 1/4 to 521 and Wheat down another 8 1/2 to 704 1/4. Rice was not spared even with all the India news, 1562 1/2, minus 16 1/2. Hoping for a bounce Monday as we are a bit overdone but hate to manage a farm on hope.
Exports Thursday morning had nothing big to grab attention and after the initial push higher in grains, especially soy, the markets all softened. Sept beans looked at 1490 and rolled over to 1453 1/2 closing off 15. Nov lost 22 and back below $14. Not a pretty chart if Friday doesn't bounce. Corn off 7 cents, 533 1/4 and wheat off 7 1/4 to 712 3/4. Corn gained 18K of open interest in the break so I'd guess the funds are going back to their short bias in corn. Rice leaked another 7 down, 1579. Post Fed the Dow ran up early but rolled over as well losing 253 points by the end of the day and 400 off the highs, 35,431. Bonds off 2 full points and 10 tics, 123.28 to make another round trip in the recent ranges. Three month treasuries did nothing in the show so maybe we got a blow out bottom or maybe the markets that have been pushing the barbell strategy are starting to reset one side to match the other. To clean up an inverted yield curve the Fed can stop raising but not drop and that could force longer paper higher. Wednesday wheat trade was a drag on the whole floor losing 40 1/4 cents, 720. Corn off 17 1/4 as well, 540 1/4. Rice off 40 early but recovers to only down 8 1/2 to end the day at 1584 1/2. Would like to see more volume and less one lot computer to want to re-own. Sept beans up 18 1/2 to 1468 1/2 but Nov could barely stay at unchanged. Front meal is getting squeezed and that is the fuel for front beans. We have a lot of air in the price of everything we trade. Caution. Dow up another 80 after the FED raised 1/4 point as broadcast. 35,684. Bonds pick up 21 tics, 126.06.
Tuesday trade surprisingly weaker than expected with wheat only up 2 3/4 cents, 760 1/4 after the limit up move Monday. Most of the day it appeared that there would be zero follow thru. Corn lost 3 to 557 1/2 and beans softened 2 3/4 to 1450 1/2. Beans supported by meal. Rice off 26 1/2 cents, 1593 in what ultimately was a Monday/Tuesday trade. All the grains needed a healthy bounce from the lows to close where they did. Not typical bull action. Dow checks new highs in front of what I'm guessing will be a FED fade, 35,604, plus 23 and bonds slip 20 tics, 125.17.
Rocking rally in the grain room Monday with weather and the Ukraine/Russia corridor both adding fuel to a computer driven fire. Wheat locks limit up 60 cents, 757 1/2. Corn in tow, 560 1/2, plus 33 1/2. Beans pop for 24 1/4 to the good side, 1453 1/4. Rice bull adding to longs as India export restrictions get more widely known, 1619 1/2, up 29 1/2. I would argue there is some hurricane premium in the rice price as well. Dow up 183 points, 35,581 and bonds slip 7 tics, 126.05. FED most likely will raise a quarter point tomorrow and then in August Powell will jawbone the markets without pulling any levers.
Weaker by 29 1/2 in wheat Friday, 697 1/2. Corn hit for 10 1/4 as well. Still a decent rally for the week for each. 1429 beans held but had no Thursday action to give back. 1429, plus 2 3/4. Rice up 1 1/2 to 1590. The bullish 3 way got liquidated 155 times to take a nice profit and open interest is 8100, mostly concentrated in September. By Friday the first of the funds will be looking to roll or take profits on grain winners. Dow off 3 points, 35,398 and bonds up 6 tics, 126.12. Quiet day Friday in Financials.
Thursday morning exports brought no surprises. Bulls wanted a rally but mostly fizzled. Corn was 9 better but closed off 8 1/4 cents, 537 1/4. Beans up a dime early but off 5 3/4 to end 1426 1/4. Wheat only lost 3/4 of a penny, 727, but was up 23 cents. Rice gains 24 on a big increase in open interest with news that India will halt non-basmati exports. I think that's news that gives our domestic market a tail and a higher floor more than a current blowup from here, but the funds can make things inelastic if they want to add 600 contract longs a day. 1588 1/2. Dow trades to contract highs again but backs off to 35,401, still 148 better on the day. Big differences between the indexes as noted by a dear friend today and that always catches my eye for momentum change to come. Bonds drop a full point and 16 tics, 126.06. After the recent rebound I thought it would be harder to push up much, but that was poor action. Worth a watch for a bit of a bounce Friday. If no bounce, probably no good back to the lows.
Big Wednesday in the wheat as the fund short got wacked. 57 cent rally to 727 3/4. Open interest up just a hair so I say fund short puked to a commercial willing to sell. Corn up 16 3/4 to 545 1/2 and that was certainly fund short liquidation. Beans up 13 1/4 cents, 1432 in the Sept and Nov got over $14 which I am sure is attracting country selling, as it should. Rice has the strongest global story to me right now but struggling a bit, still a 7-cent gain, 1564 1/2. Dow poked over 35,400 but faded back to 35,253, up 111 points and the bonds ramped up 29 tics, 127.22. In this environment, unless we roll over with depression talk, it should be hard for bonds to stay above 128.
What looked like a typical Monday/Tuesday trade started firm and it just kept on going. Really impressive showing in Sept corn, 528 3/4, plus 29 1/2. Some fund shorts paying a heavy price to escape the trap. Wheat comes along for 17 to 670 3/4. Strong meal again brings soy higher, 1418 3/4, plus 11 1/2. Rice gains 21 to 1557 1/2 and India is getting some press for their troubles. Loose money everywhere as the Dow rocks for 379 points to the upside, 35,142 while bonds pick up 7 tics, 126.25.
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