Tuesday brought deliveries in all the grains and stories that the funds were blowing out of their long positions. Trade sure acted like it, but looking at open interest, only meal had any drop. Seems like if the funds were wholesale leaving the dance we would have had big open interest drops across the board, which so far didn't happen. Corn hit for 13 1/4 to 630 1/4 and I expect this area to have some domestic value. Wheat only drops 4 1/2 to 705 1/5 as most of that markets beating has already taken place. Beans hit for 33 3/4 cents with meal taking it on the chin as well, 1479 May settle. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1735. Dow has pushed thru my support to close 32,682, off 227 points. Bonds off 3 tics, 124.04.
Monday trade all about rolling out of March positions in front of First notice and unwinding some positions acquired from options expiration. Switching to May for grain futures as we are now in delivery for March. May wheat off another 11 3/4 to 710. Been a bloody break for the wheat bulls. Corn down 5 3/4 to 643 1/2. Beans off 6 1/2 as well, 1512 3/4. Only bright spot is rice where the bear seller ran out of steam and this lower price point is probably moving some inventory into the export market. I would note river freight is the cheapest its been this whole year. May closes up 34 1/2 cents, 1737 1/2. Dow trying to establish this as a new area to churn, 32,909, up 83 points while bonds pick up 11 tics, 124.07.
Friday trade in front of options expiration and a weekend of Russian concerns didn't have much effect on wheat, off 30 cents, 708 1/4. Corn off 10 1/4 to pin a 650 close. Rice pinned as well, 1680, off a penny. Beans down 5 1/4 cents, 1529 and a big put short seemed to want to make sure the front stayed strong. It will be interesting to see how the first half of next week trades in soy now that the march options have disappeared. First intentions is Monday close so make sure you are out of March futures by Monday's close. Dow off 356 points to close 32,826, above my support but we took it out during the day so Monday morning needs to bring some new money. Bonds off a point and 7 tics, 123.28 and looks like the whole yield curve is sickly. Fed higher rates for longer starting to be believed.
Exports delayed Thursday morning and nothing new to feed the bull. USDA outlook gave us a bit of a bearish corn story for next year and there is real concern about how far we are behind in corn exports, 660 1/4, off 13 3/4. Beans off 5 1/4 as well, 1534 1/4. Wheat did claw back 1 3/4 to 738 1/4. Rice fund bear at it again, 1681, down 21 1/2 cents and adding another 670 contracts to open interest in the process. March options expire Friday so make sure you are cleaned up out there. Dow stalled for the day in a churn trade, I think trying to set a base, 33,182, up 103. Bonds up 17 tics, 125.03.
Wednesday soft as corn slips 6 1/2 cents, 674, and wheat off another 14 to 736 1/2. Beans dropped 9 1/4 to 1539 1/2 and tomorrow is March options expiration. Rice bear fund sold about 700 contracts new positioning by my estimate as we are down another 24 1/2 to 1702 1/2. If the get commitments back by next Friday I believe we will se a very unbalanced short position there. Dow pretty dull and off 83 points, 33,079 and bonds get 15 tics back, 124.18. All around risk off day. We might be getting to the edge of where money supply compression is having its intended effect, although M2 is still much higher than I expected for that to come into play.
Tuesday trade after the long weekend had contracts being pushed by the last weeks bias. Beans want to test 1550 and we got enough weather out of Argy to get 1548 3/4, plus 21 1/2. At this point I wouldn't mind a push over 1550 to see if the bulls will add. I guarantee you Brazil hopes we do. Corn only good for 2 3/4 gain to 680 1/2 while wheat drops 15 to 750 1/2. Rice bear fund at it again, 1727 1/2, off 24 1/2 and into an area of support, but doesn't seem like much buying materializing. Dow got hit for 704 points, 33,162 and looking for a new level to churn in. Bonds off a point and 22 tics, 124.03. These lows in the financials need to hold or we are going to see a contraction in almost everything.
Friday trade dead all over as we head into a long weekend. Corn up 1 3/4 to 677 3/4. Wheat gains 1/2 to 765 1/2. Beans up 3/4 cent, 1527 1/4. Rice off 4 to 1751 1/2. Dow recovers 127 points, 33,866 and bonds up 7 tics, 125.25. Seems like no one in the world is worried about anything this weekend. Commitments of traders still messed up.
Thursday exports brought nothing surprising and the grain market mostly slept. Corn off 1/4 in a quiet day, 676. Wheat off 4 1/4 cents, 765. Beans gained 3/4 to 1526 1/2 and rice picked up 1/2 to 1755 1/2. Dow probed the lower areas of the recent churn range, 33,739, off 435. Bonds down another 21 tics, 125.18 and getting to the lower region of their churn as well.
Wednesday started weak across the board and only the Dow could muster a bounce above unchanged. 34,174 was a 53 point better close that took 300 points to get. Bonds off another 24 tics, 126.07. Grains not so lucky. Corn off 6 cents, 676 1/4. Wheat down 16 3/4 to 769 1/4. Meal looks like it might have placed a high and faded all day, allowing beans to fall 11 3/4 to 1535 3/4. Rice bear got us into scale down buying, 1755, down 16.
Valentines trade didn't bring much candy to the bulls as everything leaked. Wheat gives back Mondays 6 cents, 786. Corn off 2 3/4 to 682 1/4. Beans off 5 1/4 to 1537 1/2. Rice sell program is hunting for the scale down bids that seem to reside under the market, 1771, off 20. Dow had a big up and down day and took a pretty decent push from the lows to still close off 147 points, 34,121. Really still in the higher part of the range to me. Bonds off another 13 tics, 126.31.