Stocks report Friday friendly to corn and acres a bit negative. Corn took the good side and stuffed some of the old crop shorts, 660 1/2. plus 11. Beans gained 31 to 1505 1/2 on tight stocks and no surprise to acres. Be interesting to see how well that run holds. Wheat in an up and down day but at the end no change, 692 1/4. Rice rally leaking another 18 1/2 cents, 1741 1/2. Lack of sellers helped the Dow gain 416 points to end the week 33,460. Bonds gained a full point as well, 131.05.
Thursday exports nothing unexpected, so no new fuel there. People squaring up in front of Friday numbers with wheat leaking 12 1/2 to 692 1/4 and rice off 10 1/2 cents, 1760. More corn to China but it still gives up a penny, 649 1/2. Beans off 2 3//4 to 1474 1/2. See you at 11 for ag changes from the USDA. Bonds up 11 tics in a quiet day, 130.05, and the Dow gains 141 points, 33,044.
China booked more corn to start the news cycle Wednesday and futures gained 3 1/4 to 650 1/2. We have gone from some expecting a meaty pullback to holding gains and funds probably not much of the mix. Wheat up a nickel, 704 3/4. Russia might be stopping Cargill from doing business in the black sea which would have some deeper issues if true. Beans hold all Tuesday gains and add another 9 1/2 to 1477 1/4. Rice slipped 4 to 1770 1/2 but no one seems willing to push down from here. I think in all the grains people are waiting on Thursday exports and then Friday government numbers. Dow strong all day, 32,903, plus 315 points while bonds slip 4 tics, 129.26.
Feature Tuesday was beans, up 25 1/2 to 1467 3/4. We overshot to the downside but I'm getting concerned that we may be setting up a bull trap for this Friday. Wheat up 1 3/4 to 699 3/4 and corn slips a penny, 647 1/4. Another 100K plus sale of corn to China. Rice off 9 cents, 1774 1/2 as we fill more $8 cash rice. Dow is a quiet day, 32,588, off 43 points while bonds drop 13 tics, 129.30.
World didn't melt down over the weekend so Dow was firmer Monday but in a comparatively quieter day, 32,631, plus 197. Bonds off 2 full points, 130.11. Russia talking more about setting a floor to wheat prices allowed to be exported and futures firmed another 9 1/2 to 698. Corn up 5 1/4 as well, 648 1/4. Beans gained 14 cents on the back of oil strength to 1442 1/4. Rice paused at 8.10 cash value but I would have expected a bigger drop in open interest in the May. Tells you ownership is changing as much as just leaving.
Friday opened with rumors of Russia shutting the corridor and a market tired of sellers responded. Corn popped to 643, plus 11 1/4 and almost back to Thursday exports high. Wheat up 26 1/2 to 688 1/2. That's still not very much risk premium for a big global food source. Without any new production problems we have enough wheat, but not like there is some staggering surplus. Meal and oil both bid and beans gain 8 3/4 cents, 1428 1/4. Rice up another 32 as the short funds are bleeding, 1788. Dow closed nearly 400 point off the lows, 32,434, plus 115. Bonds up 18 tics, 132.11.
Thursday exports soft everywhere but corn. Great Corn sales and shipments lead us out strong posting a 644 high but leak to 631 3/4, off 1 3/4. Wheat followed, off 1 1/2 to 662. Meal reset still taking place and dumping another 13 bucks up front with soy off 29 cents, 1419 1/2. Margins on short soy puts is tearing up some of the players. April will go off Friday. Rice pops 30 1/2 to 1756 as we really start to squeeze the fund short and approach technical places where they presumably give up. Could see a spike blowout soon. Dow churn machine back on, 32,319, up 61 points and bonds up 26 tics, 131.25.
Wednesday trade around Powell and a 1/4 raise as expected. Dow looked 200 higher but closed off 516 points, 32,258. Remember how the market got marched up the two days prior? Classic churn. Is the whole world really this easy to keep afraid? Bonds up 31 tics in sympathy, 130.31. Meal a $9 dog and beans off 18 1/2 cents, 1448 1/2. Hearing the CME margins on short soy options to force some players and market makers to the sidelines and trade sure acts like it. Money is tightening where its the most liquid everywhere and this is probably just getting started. Keep close to the vest and some liquid cash. Wheat off 19 3/4 to 663 1/2 and the world that grows wheat is scrambling to see it to raise cash. Rice off a penny, 1725 1/2 and corn up 3 1/2 on more china sales and funds already short.
Financials in the lead again with the Dow gaining another 318 points, 32,774 and bonds leaking a point and 14 tics, 130 even. Building a good rally from the lows so the computers have the most flexibility when Powell talks. Wheat is cheap all over the world and we drop another 17 1/2 to 683 1/4. Lots of places need currency and selling what you grow is a great way to get it. Money is tightening thru out the world and I'm really coming to believe that wheat is the canary in the coal mine. I cant express enough not to be over your skis in any direction and make sure you have some liquid capital. That will serve you well over the next year. Beans off 19 with Brazil filling the global voids now at a rapid pace. 1467. Corn off only 3 as China is a continual buyer, 630. Rice off 4 cents, 1726 1/2.
Monday trade a relief rally in the financials as nothing major melted down over the weekend. Dow up 358 points, 32,456 and bonds break a point and 9 tics, 131.14. Beans bounce 9 1/2 to 1486 but all the rally was in the front and meal didn't come along. We are past due to take some of the fat out of the crush, so I'll allow the move. Corn just churned, 633, off 1 1/4 in a nothing day. Wheat slips 9 3/4 to 700 3/4. Rice up 10 1/2 cents, 1730 1/2 and I still think a bunch of fund shorts are hung out.