'USDA didn't disappoint on Thursday stocks and small grains reports, with bearish corn and really bearish beans, along with a friendly wheat report. Wheat gained 15 1/4 to 725 1/2, and probably has a floor pretty close to here. That's the good. The bad has rice off 9 cents, 1371 1/2 and rolling over, and corn off 2 1/4 to 536 3/4 on a late rally. The ugly is beans off 27 3/4 to 1256, and probably still way to high based on my numbers. Oil gave a bid but meal is lust plain ugly. Dow off 543 to 33,722 and better get some good news soon, while bonds up 4 tics, 159.07.
Wednesday trade a bounce day As corn recovers 6 1/2 cents, 539. Wheat looked good but faded back to 710 1/4, still up 3 3/4. Beans got back 6 3/4 to close 1283 3/4. Rice bull didn't put up much and we dropped 12 1/2 to 1380 1/2. Dow in a typical churn day, 34,265, plus 90 points, and the bonds drifted off 7 tics, 159.03. That was a full point off the highs, and I would note it seems like the Dow and financials seem to have an easier path down than up lately.
Dow rolled over and never looked reasonable all day Tuesday as financials looked skittish all around the globe, with US ultimately off 568 points, 34,175. Still a fair amount over last weeks lows, but the rainbows and unicorns sure didn't stay around for too long. Bonds off another point and 12 tics as well, and that is what really concerns me. Powell came out with a weak statement about how we had way too much unemployment to raise rates. I guess when you eat with the elites, you don't realize how much help wanted exists at the local diner or Mickey D. If you are unemployed near the bottom of the food-chain today, its because of low motivation, not low interest rates. Wheat off 15 3/4 to 706 1/2, and that just doesn't make any sense with a known bull report on the 30th. Canary in the coal mine? Beans off 10 1/2 to 1277, corn falls 7 cents, 532 1/2, and rice hits the $14 wall again and fades to 1393, down 6 1/2.
Rumors of China looking for corn put us 12 3/4 higher, 539 1/2. Fact that china took beans could only get a 2 1/2 cent rally there, 1287 1/2, and that was near a dime off the high. Meal doesn't want to get away from 340 and oil is priced like we will be getting a bio boost already. Wheat off 1 1/2 to 722 1/4. Best grain story globally just cant get traction. I'm wondering if that's because of all the receipts registered that someone has to carry. We have until Dec for that to be the case in corn, and Nov for the beans. Rice up 9 1/2 to 1399 1/2 and the bull hit a wall at $14 he couldn't chew thru. Expect him to take another run at that number today. Dow up 69 in a churn trade, 34,743, and bonds off 9 tics, 160.22. They looked a point lower and are going to try to make this a floor.
Friday trade up a little more in wheat, 723 3/4. plus 6, but corn just couldn't keep it bid knowing we have a solid harvest weekend, 526 3/4, off 2 1/2. Beans managed to stay barely above unchanged, 1285, up 3/4 on the back of oil. Rice funds showed up to make sure the weekly looked good, 1390, plus 7. Big question for rice is do the funds get long 7000 like the last time they made a stand, or are they going to notice they are buying out the commercial long. Seems pretty early for them to make a run at it, but who knows. Dow chopped Friday but held for a 30 point gain to close 34,674, and bonds dropped another point and 6 tics, 160.31. Bonds will be worth watching next week.
Thursday exports soft, taking some of the gas out of Ag. Corn gained 3 3/4 to 529 1/4, but Oct 530 calls should put a ceiling on this run in front of a big harvest weekend. Wheat gained another dozen to 717 3/4, picking up nearly 30 cents total from earlier in the week. Beans up 1 1/2 cents, 1284 1/4, but bean oil has reset and global meal has a drag to it. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1383 and the big buyer was back, but what appears to be farmer selling is more than he may want to chew. Ag has had a nice rally but most farmers grow crops to sell, and this weekend they will have new inventory. Dow rips for another 515 points, 34,644 as the China sky is falling is replaced with rainbows and unicorns. Bonds off a point and 19 tics, 162.05, and next week could be an interesting tell in the real financial pit.
Bean oil stories abound with palm production issues and a leaked report about the bio-fuels mandates moving forward to keep a bid, and that passed on the the beans, 1282 3/4, plus 8 3/4. Wheat finally gets a past due bid as well, 705 3/4, up 15 1/2. Oats are on fire for speculative reasons and that is a great way to keep sellers at bay in the bigger grains like corn and beans. This game gets more like chess and less like checkers. Corn up 8 1/2 to 525 1/2 with some tar spot reports hitting yields, but mostly taking the top off a record, not field destruction. Rice gains 3 1/2 to 1388 1/2 was we have farmer pricing going against a new buyer if the rising open interest is any indication. Dow found a bid and popped for 331 points, 34,129, and bonds copped into nothingness, 163.24, zero net change.
Beans got a 11 1/2 cent bounce from oversold conditions Tuesday with meal not wanting to spend time below 340 and oil getting some bids from palm. 1274. Rice up 12 1/2 as well with the bull pushing back against the little bear run, 1385 and near the highs. Don't have a problem pricing some growers option rice here. Wheat was a dog yet again, 690 1/4, off 10 1/2 and that helped keep a lid on corn, 517, minus 4 3/4. Dow tried to put on a positive show but leaked it all away late to get 41 points lower, 33,798. Bonds in a nothing day, 163.24, off 4 tics.
Monday brought the first round of middle America harvest pressure to the markets, and pressure was magnified by financial unrest in China. A major developer teetering on insolvency, and China holidays moving ahead most likely going to reduce new purchases for the week. Beans took the biggest hit, 1262 1/2, minus 21 1/2. Wheat was off 8 cents, 700 3/4. Corn lost 5 1/2 to 521 3/4, and rice dropped 5 1/2 to 1372 1/2. Rice had a 20 cent bounce from the lows. Dow was ugly all day and was dressed up 350 points late to still close off 623 points, 33,839. Bonds up a point and 9 tics, 163.28.
Friday opened a little soft and just couldn't get anything going in front of a harvest weekend. Corn off 2 1/4 in a pretty dull trade, 527 1/4. Beans gave up 12 cents, 1284. No real buyers in meal or oil. Wheat off 4 1/4 to 708 3/4, after putting up a 716 high. Surprised just how much wheat has struggled to get any real rally going with issues around the world. I guess the bottom line is poor people eat wheat. Poor people cant afford high prices. Rice goes out on its highs, 1378, plus 9 1/2, but up against resistance. Milling yields are spotty, but field yields are pretty solid so far, and that is getting some pricing. Dow off 164 in a Friday churn trade, 34,462. Normally I think they want to paint Friday a little better, but no one cared to sponsor the run this time. Bonds off 26 tics, 162.19. Combines will run thru the weekend so we will get our first taste of what the center of America has as far as yield Sunday night.