Month end trade starts firm with export business on several fronts and drought stories to end this years production cycle. Market couldn't hold early gains as Dec corn faded to 357 3/4, minus 1 1/2. Dec wheat did get a 3 1/2 cent pop to 552 1/4, while Nov beans kept 3 cents of the early rally to close 953 1/2. Nov rice closed 8 1/2 higher, 1235 1/2 and the best production ideas for rice are clearly in the rear view mirror as farmers assess damage from the hurricane. All for all a disappointing grain trade given what most expected as we roll away from Sept Ag futures on to Nov and DEC. Sept Dow off 195 points to 28,416 in more market churn, while Dec bonds pick up 30 tics, 175.23
Friday trade had corn up 1 3/4 to close out the week 15 higher than Monday, 346, with wholesale fund short liquidation. Wheat set back 3 1/4 to 539 1/4. Sept beans rallied 13 1/2 cents to 950 1/2, taking all the carry out of the spread in one day, and had meal up over $6 as well. Rice had quite a churning week going from 1226 to 1202 to 1262 to finally settle 1232. Lots of action for 6 cents. Now remember we have added a hurricane and newly discovered drought into the marketing mix, as well as China purchases, Brazil shortfalls that have been exposed as well as tight supplies globally, weekend and month end strength it would appear, and we are going into what could be a very dynamic week of trade. Dow up 143 to 28,611 and bonds up a tic, 176.14. Would you buy a single stock at current valuations with your own money? Lend at the current bond rate? Yet the financials are where they are as food prices are barely at subsistence levels for the farmer.
Great export sales to start Thursday trade with a bang and fund longs make easy work of beans, 937 1/4, plus 17 3/4. Wheat pops for 10 1/2 as world prices firm, 542 1/2. Rice up 36 1/2 to 1262 as we look to establish just how much damage the hurricane caused to La and Texas. Lake Charles storm surge was less than feared by reports I have seen so far. Lots of rice and corn acres are at risk of wind and rain damage in Arkansas Thursday night. Corn up 3 3/4 to 344 1/4 as the funds are still liquidating shorts, but I think that buyer is about done. Dow up another 156 points, 28,468 as the fed speak was lower interest rates longer, but bonds drop a point and 24 tics as the bond boys, and that's the big money, is calling B.S. This show should unwind soon.
Corn catches its breath as expected Wednesday after solid gains Tuesday, 340 1/2, off 1/4. Beans gain 5 3/4 to 919 1/2 and the spread is firming going into deliveries. Wheat up 4 3/4 as well, 532. Hurricane in the gulf finally caught the attention of the rice seller as we gain 23 1/2 to 1225 1/2 and a strong close. Dow up another 119 points, 28,312, while bonds slip 12 tics, 178.05.
Tuesday trade rocked higher with massive fund short covering in the corn for a 9 cent higher push on the day, 340 3/4. Beans along for the show, up 14 to 913 3/4. Wheat gains 6 1/2 to 527 1/4, but that is more of a churn trade. Rice looks to have a computer selling, 1202, minus 24 and in the face of a big hurricane about to wack major producing areas in Texas and La. Most of the first cutting rice is in bins but can they take the storm surge? Dow churn continues, 28,193, off 46 and bonds drop 29 tics as well, 178.17.
Crop conditions dropping as we are closing out this years production minus the rains we would like to see. Hurricane in the gulf is getting bigger as well. Corn for Monday close up 4 3/4 as the shorts are still coming out, 331 3/4. Beans catching their breath, 899 3/4. off a penny. Don't see much downside for now. Wheat churn continues with a 6 1/2 lower close, 520 3/4. Rice had a Sept short blow the spread for 20 cents during the day in sloppy trade and ending off 4 cents, 1226. Dow bulls back in charge, 28,239, plus 380. Bonds off 5 tics, 179.14.
Friday trade nothing to write about as we watched weather issues in the gulf. Corn up 2 1/2 to 327. Wheat good for 7 3/4 gain on fund buying with drought stories out of Argy. 527 1/4. Beans slip 2 1/4 to 900 3/4 as we approach month end evening up and meal is weak. Rice up 13 1/2 more with someone interested in buying still, 1230. Dow closes 27,859 to end the week up 190 and bonds add another 8 tics, 179.19.
Trade Wednesday was a bunch of time killing in front of the next piece of news. Corn drifts 2 lower, 325. Beans up 1/2 cent, 912 1/2. Wheat does get half of yesterday back with a 4 1/2 cent rally, 512. Rice up 12 to 1204 with exports expected to have some better numbers Thursday morning. Dow churn continues with some morning strength washed away by the close, 27,632, minus 85. Bonds leak 12 tics as well, 178.14.
Tuesday trade has beans stable after Mondays solid gains, with more exports flashed, 912, minus 1/2. Wheat drops 9 and not a surprise, 507 1/2. Corn goes along for the ride, 327, off 4. Conditions not as bad as feared was the official line. Rice slips 5 1/2 as well to 1192 as the bull in November seemed to get a pretty good chunk bought and tired late. Time will tell. Dow churned again, 27,717, down 58 points while the bonds firmed another 15 tics, 178.26.
Monday trade firm as damage in Iowa is significant. The visuals are pronounced and the funds were short corn or had pitched most longs in the beans case, so we were ripe for a bull story to gain traction. Corn up another 6 1/2 cents, 331. Dec made the perceived resistance at 340 a non event as it closed near 345. Not a time to loose track of the fact that we still have a large corn crop, so please don't get too over your skis bullish corn. Important to see how the Dec 340 area acts today. Beans up 15 1/2 to 912 1/2 and that gets us back to river bids at or above 940 spot, which we know the commercial can pay. Might get tougher from here on for flat price. Wheat gains 16 1/2 to close 516 1/2 and the funds will dictate where we go from here. Rice up 8 1/2 to 1197 1/2. Still don't see anything that takes us aggressively above 5.50 barring covid 2.0 or our atypical buyer options. Another churn day in the dow, 27,775, minus 17 , and bonds seem to have found our expected floor, and if thy pop it will be another pressure point on the dow. 178.11, plus 1/2 point, or 16 tics. Actually, Dow and bonds have been swapping leadership all the time lately.