Rocking day Monday as lots of trade will have to move to the US from black sea. May futures in the Ag room from here on, with corn limit bid, 690 3/4. Wheat 74 1/4 better, 934. Beans pick up 52 1/4 to 1636 3/4 with oils 350 better and meal up only a few bucks. Rice gains 27 with deliveries to current, 1568 1/2 and the cash boys not at all happy that may futures are above $7. Dow off all day and a solid bounce to get to 154 lower, 33,840. Bonds flight to quality trade, 154 19, plus two points, 11 tics. As people wrap their heads around a global realignment of trade, no one knows what the new cost of food will be, other than higher.
What a Friday. Dow rallies 1200 from the lows to 33,994, plus 838. Bonds slip 6 tics, 152.08. Rice off a penny, 1511, as we settle up for deliveries. Corn off 35 1/2 to 659 1/2, losing 57K of open interest in a day, and of the big 3 it had the easiest run. Wheat had a dollar range and 843 close, down 83 cents. May limit 75 lower after setting a new life of contract high in night trade. Beans drop 71 1/4 to 1590 1/4 and losing 20K of OI along the way. Meal whacked and oil dropped 325 points on the day as well. Man was that a bloody week for a lot of people, and I doubt this will be the only time we have to write that this year. Grains switch to May with deliveries coming to spot months.
Crazy Thursday trade, with wheat limit up and new contract highs, 926. Corn up 11 1/4 to 695, but off the early limit up trade. Beans had a buck wide range but ultimately closed 1661 1/2, off 13 1/2. I spent so much time in the details that the final number seems foreign. Rice up 6 cents, 1512. We had huge liquidation in all the markets, making the shorts the ones putting in the top. Dow had a 1000 point range, almost all lower, but made it back to 90 higher on the close, 33,156. Bonds looked near 155 but closed 152.14, off 4 tics.
Wednesday trade all revolves around Russian aggression. Wheat up another 31 3/4 to 876, and corn gains 9 to 683 3/4. simple truth is a full invasion of Ukraine will be hugely destabilizing to Wheat and corn trade globally. Beans pop 40 with strong meal as well, 1675. Rice off 6 with mostly spread roll and no real sponsor. 1506. Dow whacked for another 459 points, 33,066, and bonds slip 13 tics, 152.18.
Tuesday trade dominated by Russia news and fund buying. Wheat caught fire for 47 1/4 cents, 844 1/4. Meal and especially oil light it up and beans gain 33 1/2 to 1635. Corn hot as well, 674 3/4, up 20 1/2. Rice gains 22 to 1512 as we try to keep up with the Jones or lose acres we cant afford to lose. Dow gets hit for 482 points, 33,525 after a big churn day, and bonds close off 2 tics, 152.31. That was a bad close after looking over 154 and failing.
Friday beans had march options expiration to keep us pinned, 1601 1/2, plus 9 1/2. Meal closed lower on the day. Corn gained 4 1/4 to 654 1/4, but wheat gave up 15 from the highs to end at 797, off a penny. Surprising given the unrest in the Ukraine. Rice off a penny, 1490, in spread roll action and we are now under 1900 total OI in march rice futures. A bit of fear in the financials to end the week, Dow off 224 points, 34,007, while the bonds gain another point and 2 tics, 153.01.
Thursday started with good bean exports and a firm market, but couldn't get much going, 1592, up 4 1/2. Corn up 3 to 650 and rice picked up 3 as well, 1491. Wheat popped 17 1/2 to 798 on more Russian fears, but really just back near the top of the box. Dow kept enthusiasm away from everything else as it dropped 620 points, 34,231 and bonds gained a point and 4 tics, 151.31.
Meal was the story Wednesday, and that 10 buck bounce gave beans a push 36 1/4 higher, 1587 1/2. I think we caught some weak shorts who just paid up to leave the room. Corn followed for 9 cents, 647. Wheat could only muster 780 1/2, a 3/4 cent gain. Rice up 7 as the market seems to have an upward bias when the seller isn't pushing. 1488. Surprised he hasn't tried the long side, but the calendar says to wait a few weeks for that game. One thing I have learned over time watching this show is never believe that these programs follow a strict calendar. Dow has a 500 point mostly lower churn day, 34,851, off 53 points, and bonds find a 3 tics up-move, 150.27.
Dow was firm Tuesday with talk of easing Russia tensions, 34,904, up 433 points. Bonds lost a full point to 150.24. I know 160s seems like yesterday, but I wouldn't fade this bond move, as I can see 120s as a possibility. Ag room was weak with wheat off 19 1/2 cents, 779 3/4 and corn in tow, 638, minus 17 3/4. Meal drops 9 bucks and beans lose 18 3/4 to 1551 1/4. When the bull don't get fed, he gets testy quickly. Rice sell machine back on, 1481, down 24. He made sure there was no room to bounce late.
Day of uncertainty Monday as everything seemed to chop around, looking for someone to lead. Meal off 8 bucks and that let beans slip 13 to 1570. Wheat lower and higher but closes 799 1/4, up 1 1/2. Corn picked up 4 3/4 to 655 3/4 after looking lower early. Rumored export business that I suspect will be confirmed Thursday. Rice off 16 as the buyer from Friday was apparently a one day wonder, 1505. Bonds lose 29 tics in their continued downward slide, 151.24, and Dow off 156 points, 34,471.