Friday trade had month end and Aug first notice positions squaring thru the day, With bean complex taking most of the heat. Meal and oil soft and beans hit for 28 1/2 to end the week 1349 1/4. Wheat looked lower and then higher on yield concerns around the globe, but settled 703 3/4, off 1 1/2. Wheat supply should be the lead story for quite a while, and that scares me. A, that is in fact a big story, and B, that we have to look to wheat futures as a beacon. Oats got whacked for near 15 cents and back under its brief peek above 450. Corn off 1 1/4 to 545 1/4. Rice was 20 lower with the last of someones selling, but we bounced to unchanged to end the week 1368. Dow had a standard back and fill churn day, 34,842, off 142, and bonds picked up 18 tics in front of the weekend, 164.23.
Export ships in corn acceptable and we needed to look up, 556 1/2, plus 7 1/2. Oil leading the beans again, and beans pop 16 3/4 to 1377 3/4. I would note that going into deliveries, August oil faltered late in the day and is worth monitoring. If the bio component slips, it could be painful for beans in whole. Wheat disaster continues to unfold in the tour, 705 1/4, up 16 1/2 Sept futures, but way less powerful of a move than I would have expected. Rice up a couple, 1368 after looking at the 85 level but getting commercial selling in March to keep a lid. Dow up 140 to 34,974, and bonds slip 7 tics, 164.05.
Wednesday trade all about the wheat tour and the bullish news coming from it, but mostly as expected. Wheat up 14 1/4 on the day, 688 3/4, and that helped corn stay positive, 549, plus 2 3/4. The first corn combines are rolling, and I expect good to great reports almost every day in corn yields for the foreseeable future. Beans settled middle of the range, 1361, up 1 1/2. Rice had 35 more vs cash against the recent receipt cancellations, and some late buying after a firm day to push 18 higher on the close, 1366. Looks like a short coming out. Dow off 119 in a standard back and fill day, 34,834, while bonds slip 20 tics to 164.12.
Tuesday grain markets wanted to be firm, they really did, but just couldn't find a sponsor with a backbone. Wheat, with the best story faded 15 from its highs to 674 1/2, down 2 1/2 on the day. Corn looked over 560 but dropped to 546 1/4 at the end, off 1/2 cent. Beans stayed 1 3/4 positive with a bit of meal help, bur still nearly 30 off the high trade, 1359 1/2. Dow back and fill, 34,953, off 81, while bonds gain 28 tics to 165 even. Fed will have some chatter Wednesday, but I'm not looking for anything. Day 2 of the wheat tour on tap.
Monday was expected to be stronger out of the box but got a good old fund beat down. Beans closed 6 higher, 1357 3/4, but that was on a 32 cent bounce. Corn bounced 14 from the early hole as well to get back 3 3/4 better, 546 3/4. Corn and beans losing open interest. Wheat slips 7 to 677 and wheat probably has the best story. Rice off 7 to 1357 1/2. There is some cash movement in rice. Dow kissing the highs, 35,034, plus 83. A gentile kiss, but there none the less. Bonds up 3 tics, 164.04. Point off the high, and not sure if we are struggling near the top, or just punching a hole above for easy churn.
Friday trade soft mostly in the Ag room, With corn leading the way lower, off another 18 1/4 to 543. Wheat dipped 8 1/4 to 684. Meal off nearly $10 and beans drop 10 1/2 even with positive oil news, 1351 3/4. Rice gained 7 1/2 to 1361 1/2 in pretty quiet trade. Dow marched higher to close out the week 34,951, plus 242, while the bonds gave back 15 tics, 164.01.
Thursday trade soft in the grain room, and it appears to these eyes that the short funds are gaining more confidence daily in their willingness to not only sell short, but push. Wheat softer by 18 1/2, 692 1/4, and that opened the door for everything else. No follow thru in meal, and in fact a good bit softer trade so beans drop 27 1/2 to 1362 1/4. Corn off 7 1/4 to 561 1/4. Rice did get a bid again as shorts cover and might have a new long coming in, as well as reports of at least 60K of milled business to long awaited Iraq. 1354, up 23 but facing headwinds from here with new crop green pricing. Dow stalled as expected and mild churn day for 20 points, 34,709. Bonds up 15 tics, 164.16.
Dow was good again Wednesday, so all is good again. Hardly, but that's the story of the day. Corn stable, 568 1/2, plus 2 3/4, but that's with wheat up another 10 1/4 cents, 710 3/4. Rice up another 12 to 1331 with lack of selling and something seemingly going on. Beans end up 1 1/4 higher, 1389 3/4 with stronger meal and weaker oil. Dow up 289 points, 34,689 and recovering all Mondays break, while the bonds leak a point and 12 tics to a still high 164.01.
Talk about your Monday/Tuesday trades. Dow rips 561 higher, 34,400 to erase most all of Monday losses and put the talking heads back at ease. Bonds did back off 24 tics to 165.13, but that was after looking above 167. I would expect that to be the high point in bonds, but I wouldn't bet too much on anything with Fed engineering right now. It does give us another opportunity to lock some long rates on debt. Hotter and drier in the Ag room, with corn up 13 1/2 to 565 3/4, oats up 17 and looking at 4.50, and wheat up 2 3/4 cents, 700 1/2. If this is all wheat has in it with what has to be the most distressed crop, it does give me pause about how long we can push corn. I guess until the next rain, but where will that rain matter to the market? Rice up 15 on little volume, just lack of the seller pushing, 1319. Looks like another 300 vs cash traded. Beans gained 15 3/4 to 1388 1/2 after looking over the buck, and lead by meal this time. We really need to see some meal follow thru.
Equity bloody nose Leads the softness across the whole investment spectrum Monday. Dow off 725 points, 33,839 and bonds up 2 full points and 11 tics to 166.05. Cheap money and big printing will have to lead to inflation, but not on Monday. Beans off 19 cents, 1372 3/4 with oil soft. Rice down 19 as well, 1304, but no volume and the seller got some courage to push. In rice 51 more vs. cash and receipts getting cancelled, and total open interest under 7K. Old saying, never sell a dull one. Wheat has real problems, especially in this hemisphere, and 5 1/4 higher close even with all the outside pressures, 697 3/4. That helped keep a bid in corn, 552 1/4, plus a quarter cent.