Friday feature is the Dow churn trade, where we pop 600 Thursday and then Friday we roll over and break 946 points to 32,882. They normally defend Fridays, but when they don't, breaks can get ugly. Pay attention to Monday trade,especially late. Bonds off 17 tics, 140.22. Corn up 2 1/4 to end the week, 818 1/4. That slight uptick is spread related, and we will be switching to July futures moving forward after today for all grains. Rice ran to new highs, 1709, plus 31 1/2. Cant find any news to justify the bump for now, other than weather. Beans up 1 3/4 after the soy complex was unable to hold bigger early rallies, 1708 1/4. Wheat down 30 1/4 to 1043 3/4.
Thursday opened with nothing special in export sales, but then there was a million-ton flash of corn sales to China. Market couldn't hold much of a gain at the end, 816, up 1/2, but it did hold. Beans off 20 with May late players looking for the sidelines, 1706 1/2. Wheat slipped 6 as well, 1074. Rice up 11 1/2 to 1677 1/2 and curious about the strength with nothing on the front burner. Deliveries current and with no real surprise we got some fresh receipts out of Ottwell. I struggle with why a firm gives up physical control at full carry. Dow takes the path of least resistance up 602 points, 33,828, and bonds slip 10 tics, 141.07.
Wednesday trade features strong products and beans pick up 21 1/4 to 1726 1/2. Corn hits new highs and closes 12 1/4 better, 815 1/2. 1080 wheat is a 3 1/2 cent set back in a churn day. Rice gives back only 9 cents of yesterday spike rally, 1666. Really impressive going into full carry deliveries. In fact, all the grains have been amazingly orderly throughout the roll. After the Tuesday Dow wash out, we follow up with a simple churn day, like nothing even happened. 33,226, up 66 points. Bonds give back 29 tics, 141.17 again. Export sales in the morning might hold a few surprises.
More bean sales to china, strong oil, but weak meal leaves beans 1 3/4 better at the end, 1705 1/4. Wheat up 21 1/4 to 1083 1/4. Path of least resistance. Corn picked up another 3 cents, 803 1/4. Rice buyer surprised quite a few but the spreads had a bid too, so I'd have to guess that something is stirring in the export world. 1675, plus 45. Would expect that number to attract some new cash sales. All the grain rolls are still quite orderly. Dow ugly and got uglier, 33,160, off 805 points, while bonds followed thru for another 29 tic gain. Isn't it amazing when an 800 point break in the Dow is kind of a footnote? These systems are designed to pick off your emotions, not your sense. Every trade, before you pull the trigger, ask yourself, does this trade make sense, or am I being emotionally lead into a trap?
Weekend came and went without much change, and the Financials had a bid Monday. Dow had an 800 point range but gained as the day went on, 33,965, up 237 at the end. Bonds gained a point and 14 tics as well, 141.17. Be interesting to see if the bonds can hold the rally. Seems like at least one of the FED hawks is getting muted. I'm a bit surprised that this 140 area has held so well. Palm oil export restrictions only apply to refined and that took some steam out of the soy complex, with beans off 12 1/2 to end the day 1703 1/2. Wheat was another computer churn event, 1062, minus 3 1/2. Corn has a bid and some business, 800 1/4, plus 7 1/4. That was with another 40K of May liquidation. Rice up 9 1/2 cents, 1630, and we are down to 1000 may open interest, under registered receipt totals. These rolls in all the grains have gone smoother than I had expected and will be a moot point by Friday. Perhaps the weather delays around the country are starting to matter.
Friday trade whips in corn with May liquidation of 44,000 contracts on the bear side and China buying to start the day firm. Close off 6 1/4 cents, 793. Wheat just a middle of the range computer churn, 1065 1/2, off 2 1/2. Beans pushed and pulled by products, with meal off $10 and a bid in oil that will probably stick around as long as Indonesia blocks palm exports. 1704 -57 range but settling off 32 1/4 cents, 1716. Looked like a shot a painting the weekly chart and deliveries need to be addressed in 4 trading days. Rice spread roll already winding down as we are down to 1400 contracts of May against 1100 receipts, 1620 1/2, off 2 1/2. Knocking on $7.25 a Bu. Financials provided another sucker punch as the Dow gets whacked for 981 points, 33,728, and bonds pick up 1 measly tic. So much for flight to quality. 140.03.
Export sales didn't give the grain room much to get excited about Thursday, and wheat dropped 20 cents, 1068. Corn off 16 1/2 to 799 1/4 and beans worked hard to stay afloat, 1748 1/4, plus 1 1/2. Bean oil has a bid from food and fuel. Rice bounced 17 1/2 to 1623 and we should be down near 2000 may left to place total. Dow off all of yesterday gain and more, 34,709, minus 370, and bonds get no continuation, 140.02, off 31 tics. This is still mostly computer noise.
Corn Bounced back Wednesday to recover all Tuesday set back and more as we close 11 3/4 higher, 815 3/4. Beans up 30 1/4 to 1746 3/4 with products strong. Wheat slips 11 to 1088 and although global wheat is hot, we just aren't shipping enough out of here yet. Rice just trying to digest the last few days violence and get the spread roll done, 1605 1/2, off a penny. Dow strong and closes with a 238 point gain, 35,079 and bonds pick up a point and 18 tics as well, 141.01. Some are thinking that the fed wont be as hawkish as originally expected. May 3-4 FED comments will be very closely scrutinized.
Beans held Monday rally and closed Tuesday up 1 3/4 cents, 1716 1/2. The rest of Ag is a give back day. Wheat looses most of Monday strength, 1099, off 21 1/2. Corn slips 9 1/4 to 804. Rice has a buck 30 range and closed down 48 1/2 at 1606 1/2. Buy low, but don't forget to sell some high. This trade range will most likely be repeated. Dow up 528 points, 34,841, and bonds drop 23 tics, 139.15.
Monday markets hot with Ukraine potentially getting worse and funds getting hungry. Corn pops 23 to 813 1/4 and wheat up 24 cents, 1120 1/2. Beans close 1714 3/4, up 32 1/2, and rice buyer shows again for 35 1/2 to 1655. Dow leaks 45 points, 34,313, and bonds off another 28 tics, 140.06.