Thursday started with nothing special in exports other than a solid bean number, and the 11 o'clock reports stirred the pot. The shift from corn to beans was so much more than the street expected, and stocks were plenty sufficient in both. This lead to a big futures shift as Beans got hit for 45 3/4, down to 1618 1/4 on a gain of 18K in open interest. Corn sets new highs in the back months and even with the market cooling going into the close, we settled up 10 3/4 cents, 748 3/4. We also added 42K in open interest up here on the highs, which gives me pause. New crop corn should continue to have the better bid with acres under 90. Wheat got a friendly report and popped to 1075 but got hit thru the rest of the day and settled 21 1/4 lower, 1006. Rice had the best report numbers to me, 1601, up 9 1/2. Breaks should be supported. Dow got hit for 499 points, 34,618, and bonds rally 20 tics, 150.02. Looks like April is going to be choppy and the bull needs to be fed. Soft news days should give soft futures results.
Nice bounce back Wednesday in Ag with beans up 21 to 1664, and rice gaining 18 1/2 cents, 1591 1/2. Wheat popped 13 to 1027 1/4 and corn up 11 3/4 to 738 as well. Couple big numbers tomorrow and exports early to start the machines. Russia sure doesn't understand what de-escalation means. Dow slips 73 points, 35,117 and bonds pick up 16 tics, 149.14. Tomorrow will be choppy.
Tuesday started in the hole with front corn and wheat limit down, but solid bounces across the grain floor thru the day. Seller tried to keep the corn limit by letting it come off and hitting it back down, but eventually enough volume showed to bring all the grains significantly off the lows. Wheat closed 1014 1/4, off 42 3/4, but that was 42 off the lows. Beans down 21 1/4 to 1643 but again a solid 21 cent bounce from the lows. Corn off 22 1/4 cents, 726 1/4 and recovered 13 from limit down, with the added bonus of a 6K gain in open interest. Shows a new seller today was met with someone willing to add to longs or get newly long. Rice ends at 1573, off 23 but a couple of notes there as we attract 175 new 3 ways in the options and a good gain in open interest as well. Dow gets pushed up 337 points, 35,190, and bonds pick up a point and 10 tics, 148.30, This de-escalation with Russia and the Ukraine better stick.
Covid in China and talk of reduced demand leading the way lower Monday, but I think just a tired market that has a bunch of specs long. Wheat hit for 45 1/4 to 1057. Whole soy complex was weak, and beans closed 1664 1/4, off 46. Rice hit for 29 1/2 to 1596. Corn held the best, 748 1/2, down 5 1/2. Dow dressed up to 34,853, plus 94. Bonds gain 18 tics, 147.20.
Friday trade had a bid thru the day in the grain room and we went off pretty solid across the board. Wheat popped 16 1/2 to get back over the buck, 1102 1/4. The whole soy complex looked good, and beans closed 9 1/2 higher, 1710 1/4. Corn 5 3/4 better even with a May liquidating trade, 754. Rice dead until the computer went to the upside hunting stops, found a big pop from lack of selling as much as big size, but still 24 1/2 higher in the end, 1625 1/2. They dressed the Dow up 155 points to end the week, 34,759, and bonds got spanked down 2 full points, 9 tics, to 147.02.
Nothing to feed the Bull in export sales Thursday and the grain room drifted. Beans off 18 to 1700 3/4 and corn drops 9 1/2 cents, 748 1/4. Wheat takes a hit for 20 as well, 1085 3/4. Another pretty quiet day in rice and up 2 on the close, 1601. Dow churned to the upside 354 points, 34,604, and bonds looked lower but bounced back to 6 tics lower at the end, 149.11. Systems are looking for the next piece of news to figure out which way to run the herd. Month end re balance and USDA reports coming on the 31st.
Beans the leader Wednesday as meal catches a bid and oil numbers with crude strong really don't have much room for a setback. Big spike in the morning and we set back to 1718 3/4 by the end of the day, still 22 1/4 higher. Corn faded thru the day from early run as well, 757 3/4, up 4 3/4. Wheat closes 12 1/2 lower, 1105 3/4 as the spread is wanting to revert back to carries. Dead day in rice, 1599, off 3 1/2. Dow weak all day and off 459 at the end, 34,250, and bonds gain a point and 4 tics, 149.17.
Wheat started hot Tuesday but faded to a penny lower on the day, 1118 1/4. That's 50 cents of air. Corn gave back 3 1/4 to 753. Rice bounce continued, 1602 1/2, plus 9 1/2. Beans 24 off the high but still 9 1/2 to the good, 1696 1/2. Meal the weak link. Dow up 273 points, 34,709, and bonds drop a point and 7 tics on Powell jawboning, 148.13. Don't get lost in the gossip, Powell is no Volcker.
Monday starts with nothing changed in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, Putting wheat up limit, backing off, but still 55 1/2 higher at the close, 1119 1/4. Front oats over $7 again, and corn 14 1/2 higher, 756 1/4. Beans pick up 23 cents, 1691, after peaking over $17, and rice pops 30 1/2 to 1593 as the recent seller wasn't around. Bonds drop 2 points 27 tics, 149.20 and Dow off 197 points, 34,436 and that was after a couple hundred point bounce.
Friday trade has the financials thinking the Russia/Ukraine incursion could be wrapping up, with the Dow up another 273 points on the day, 34,633, and a 1700 point rally for the week. Bonds up a point and a tic to 152.15. Wheat down 34 1/4 to 1063 3/4 and corn follows, 741 3/4, down 12 3/4. Beans churn lower and higher in a 37 point range but settle 1688, off 1/2 cent. Meal had a bid but oil was weak and especially weak in the spread. Rice off 8 1/2 to 1562 1/2 with some more liquidation but hitting some bids down here.