Month end trade strong Monday in the Dow, 34,997, plus 402, with the bonds off 4 tics, 155.20. Wheat off 25 to 761 1/4, and corn gave up Friday's gain, 626, minus a dime. Beans up another 20 1/2 to 1490 1/2, and meal was solid, but oil seems to be running out of steam. With China closed for the new year holiday all week, this bull is going to have to get fed somewhere else. Lots of people hoping for new fund money to come in tomorrow I'd guess. Rice up 8 1/2 to 1506, but it's looking for someone else to come along too.
Last day of the week brought out every system to paint the weekly charts wherever they could. Dow had another 1000 point range and settled near the top of it, 34,595, plus 552 points. Bonds picked up 11 tics, 155.24. For all its movement, wheat doesn't seem to want to stray too far from a 7.70-8.00 range. 786 1/4, up 9 1/4. Corn up another 10 3/4 to 636 and gained another 10K in open interest. Beans up 21 3/4 to 1470, with solid meal and oil markets, Products are dragging beans up. Its a good time to be a crusher. Almost 18K in increased open interest in the soy complex on the day. Rice picks up only a penny and a half, 1497 1/2 recovering after it appeared someone not too familiar with how rice trades dumped a fair sized long position early. Open interest off 100 as a marker.
Thursday started with great exports across the board, but that didn't really follow thru as much as most hoped. Corn slipped 1 3/4 to 625 1/4. Wheat off 18 to 777 on weaker black sea quotes, but who wants to book anything down the road out of the black sea with the Geo-political events there today? Rice off 11 cents, 1496, with someone offering a bigger unit. Beans down 8 1/4 to 1448 1/4, but meal and oil both seem to have a bid. Dow off 12 points, 34,043, but had another 1100 point swing. Churn machine computers the only ones making money in that pond lately. Bonds up a point and 2 tics, 155.13.
Dow has another nearly 1000 point range and settles off 130 points, 34,055. Bonds give up 29 tics, 154.11. Fed punted the interest rate hike until March, and the world sees that as a weak hand. Not sure how they are going to keep humpty dumpty glued together. Beans caught most off guard and rocked 32 3/4 higher, 1440, just a couple cents from contract highs, with meal and oil in tow. I expected a bigger gain in open interest for that move than what we got. Corn up 7 to 627, but wheat dumped 23 to 795. Wheat seems to hate 8 bucks. Hoping for something in exports tomorrow. Rice up a dime, 1507, but no one seems willing to make a push. Domestic grind continues, and exports are wanted here as well.
Tuesday Dow has another 1000+ point range and settles off only 68 points, 34,185. We had a higher low and spent some time higher on the day late. Bonds off 21 tics, 155.08. Corn closes 620, off a penny after being a dime higher early. Wheat up 17 1/2 to 818, but that is well off the highs as well. Looks like there is some progress in negotiations with Russia. Beans get a 4 1/4 cent bounce following oil, as meal just doesn't have a sponsor. 1407 1/4. Rice trades 1517 but backs off to a penny lower, 1497.
Can't talk about Monday trade without starting with the violence in the Dow. We traded to a low of 33,031 and then bounced 1200 points to 34,253, up 96 points on the day. Computers did a wonderful job of flushing out every weak player they could find, so without a global issue out of China or Russia, that will be the perceived floor. Bonds close off a tic, 155.29. Wheat up 20 1/2 to 800 1/2 with talk of Russia/Ukraine the feature, and short funds buying their way out. Corn plus 4 3/4 to 621, and rice picks up another 13 to 1498. So much for the world of cash for sale at 675. Beans off 11 1/4 to 1403 and I would say some of the funds needed to lighten the load.
Friday trade off in the Dow by 459 points more, 34,157. Bonds up a point and 15 to 155.30. This is looking for sidelines people worried about a disruptive weekend in the Ukraine. Spill over to beans, 1414 1/4, off 11 1/2 and meal was weak. Wheat down 10 1/4 to 780, and that's a bit of a head scratcher given where the global fears are. Corn bounced 5 1/4 to 616 1/4 with the funds buying, and decent cash market as well. Rice up 8 cents, 1485, as the bull pushed us into stops on the upside. Pretty decent volume in the rice up here.
Beans the feature again Thursday as we pop another 34 1/2 to 1425 3/4, and above perceived technical resistance. Bean oil lit a fire following Palm and we added big open interest in beans and oil as the funds appear to continue adding to an already large position. Corn could only muster 1/2 cent, 611, and wheat tried, again and again, but wound up off 6 1/4 to 790 1/4. Rice bull added and we gained 11 1/2 to 1477. Appears we are bumping up against someone more willing to sell some inventory up here. Dow still soft, 34,6165, down another 294 and was another couple hundred worse. Bonds up 3 tics, 154.15.
Wednesday trade driven by fear. Beans gain 30 cents to 1391 1/4 on fear of a smaller SA crop. Wheat up 27 1/2 to 796 1/2, and corn up 11 to 610 1/2 on fear of a Ukraine invasion and the global shift in demand that would create. Rice up 13 1/2 to 1465 1/2. All the grains getting a new fund long bid on fear of inflation. Dow off 349 points more to 34,910 and bonds get a 28 tic bounce on fear of Fed overreach and possibly a recession. This will probably be a very bumpy February.
Long weekend brought global instability fears to the market Tuesday with the Dow off 537 points, 35,259, and bonds losing another point and 21 tics to 153.22. China working us in the financial side and the soviets working us on the military side. Soft attacks, but attacks non the less, and I'd afraid this may be just ramping up. Not a good time to overextend anywhere. Beans off 8 1/2 cents, 1361 1/4 with meal down 15 bucks. Wheat up 27 1/2 to 769 as the bear gets his hand slapped. Corn gains 3 1/4 to 599 1/2, but that's 11 off the lows. Rice off 3 1/2 to 1452 and waiting for the next player to push.